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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Xeric Tree Populations Exhibit Delayed Summer Depletion of Root Starch Relative to Mesic Counterparts

Research linking soil moisture availability to nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) storage suggests greater NSC reserves promote survival under acute water stress, but little is known about how NSC allocation responds to long-term differences in water availabilty. We hypothesized populations experiencing chronic or frequent water stress shift carbon allocation to build greater NSC reserves for increased survival probability during drought relative to populations rarely experiencing water stress. Over a year, we measured soluble sugar and starch concentrations from branches, stems, and coarse roots of mature Pinus palustris trees at two sites differing in long-term soil moisture availability. Xeric and mesic populations exhibited a cycle of summer depletion-winter accumulation in root starch. Xeric populations reached a maximum root starch concentration approximately 1–2 months later than mesic populations, indicating delayed summer depletion. Xeric and mesic populations reached the same minimum root starch at similar times, suggesting extended winter accumulation for xeric populations. These results suggest seasonal mobilization from root starch is compressed into a shorter interval for xeric populations instead of consistently greater reserves as hypothesized. Seasonal trends differed little between xeric and mesic populations for starch and sugars, suggesting the importance of roots in seasonal carbon dynamics and the primacy of starch for storage. If roots are the primary organ for longterm storage, then our results suggest that whole-plant mobilization and allocation respond to chronic differences in water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decline in Seasonal Snow during a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence, and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections, we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a “stress test” for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find that 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in the area burned, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems, we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47–58% of historical values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time and Rapid Respiratory Response of the Soil Microbiome to Moisture Shifts

Microbial response to changing environmental factors influences the fate of soil organic carbon, and drought has been shown to affect microbial metabolism and respiration. We hypothesized that the access of microbes to different carbon pools in response to dry–rewet events occurs sequentially at different rates. We amended desiccated soils with 13 C-labeled glucose and measured the rates of 12 CO 2 and 13 CO 2 respiration in real time after rewetting. Using these differentiated 12 CO 2 and 13 CO 2 respiration rate soils after rewetting, we were able to deduce when microbes are accessing different pools of carbon. Immediately upon rewetting, respiration of 12 CO 2 occurred first, with negligible 13 CO 2 respiration. Appreciable metabolism and respiration of the added 13 C glucose did not occur until 15 min after rewetting. We conclude that, while all carbon pools are being accessed in the first 9 h after rewetting, the rate and timing at which new and existing carbon pools are being accessed varies. Within this study, using stable isotope-labeled substrates to discern which carbon pools are metabolized first uniquely illustrates how microorganisms access different carbon pools which has implications into understanding how carbon metabolism can further affect climate, carbon sequestration, and soil health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Direct and indirect effects of environmental variability on growth and survivorship of pre‐reproductive Joshua trees, Yucca brevifolia Engelm. (Agavaceae)

Premise of study: Accurate demographic information about long-lived plant species is important for understanding responses to large-scale disturbances, including climate change. It is challenging to obtain these data from desert perennial plants because seedling establishment is exceptionally rare, and estimates of survival are lacking for their vulnerable early stages. Desert wildfires, urbanization, and climate change influence the persistence of the long-lived Yucca brevifolia. Quantitative demographic attributes are crucial for understanding how populations will respond to disturbances and where populations will recede or advance under future climate scenarios. Methods: We measured survival in a cohort of 53 pre-reproductive Y. brevifolia at Yucca Flat, Nevada, USA, for 22 yr and recorded their growth, nurse-plant relationships, and herbivory. Key results: Herbivory by black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus) caused severe losses of plants during the first and second years (45% and 31%, respectively). Surviving plants experienced <2.5% annual mortality. Survival for the population was 19% over 22 yr. Plants <25 cm in height had lower life expectancy. Average growth rate (± SD) for plants that survived to the last census was 3.12 ± 1.96 cm yr -1 ), and growth rates were positively associated with precipitation. Thirty-year-old Y. brevifolia had not yet reproduced. Conclusions: A rare establishment event for Y. brevifolia during 1983-1984, triggered by above-average summer rainfall, provided a unique opportunity to track early survival and growth. Infrequent but acute episodes of herbivory during drought influenced demography for decades. Variability in survival among young Y. brevifolia indicates that size-dependent demographic variables will improve forecasts for this long-lived desert species under predicted regional climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Avian community composition in response to high explosive testing operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory in Northern New Mexico

Breeding bird abundance, species richness, evenness, diversity, composition, productivity, and survivorship were determined near a high-explosive detonation site at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA, during pre-operation (1997-1999) and operation (2000-2014) periods. The operation periods consisted of detonations (<23 kg in yield and <3 per breeding season) in open air (2000-2002), within foam containment (2003-2006) and within steel vessel containment (2007-2014) systems; the latter two were employed to reduce noise and dispersal of high-explosives residues. A total of 2952 bird captures, representing 80 species, was recorded during 18 years of mist net operations using the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship protocol. Individuals captured were identified to species, aged, sexed, and banded during May through August of each year. There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) in mean avian abundance and species evenness in any of the operation periods as compared with the pre-operation period. Species richness and diversity were significantly higher (p < 0.05) during the vessel containment period (2007-2014) than the pre-operation period. The time period of this study coincided with a wildfire (2000), a bark beetle infestation (2002), and two periods of drought (Nov 1999-Mar 2004 and Dec 2005-Dec 2014) that affected the study area. Furthermore, analysis of aerial photos determined that the average percent canopy cover of mature ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) within 100 feet of mist net sites declined from 12% to 3% between 1991 and 2014 and the percent cover of shrubs slightly increased.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

security↗
NASA NTRS2015

Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

risk↗
NASA NTRS2017

Development OF A Multi-Scale Framework for Mapping Global Evapotranspiration

As the worlds water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2020

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability – the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

Drought monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2020

Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

climate‐related extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2020

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability - the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long-term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest-forcing scenario.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Impact on Wildfire Danger Over the Mediterranean: the Case of Greece

Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing to longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity will likely increase. In the present study, the changes in future fire danger conditions are assessed for the different regions of Greece using the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). Gridded future climate output as estimated from three regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment are utilized. We use three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road scenario (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical fire FWI threshold values for Greece, the future change in days with critical fire danger were calculated for different areas of Greece domains. The results show that fire danger is expected to progressively increase in the future especially in the high-end climate change scenario with southern and eastern regions of Greece expected to have up to 40 additional days of high fire danger relative to the late 20th century, on average. Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Attica region, as well as parts of Peloponnese are predicted to experience a stronger increase in fire danger.

Forest fires↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Glen Canyon Generation Loss

Colorado River Basin hydropower generation has faced challenges due to droughts and ecological and social water requirements. Specifically, Glen Canyon hydropower generation fluctuates substantially with recent extreme weather trends. Further, the western grid evolves with higher wind and solar share, and Glen Canyon hydropower's contribution to grid flexibility services is essential. The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) markets and schedules electricity production at GCD, and the loss of this power could have significant financial consequences for the WAPA Colorado River Storage Project's (CRSP) Office because it may need to purchase relatively large amounts of energy to serve its firm electrical obligations. In addition, GCD provides grid reliability services for the WAPA Colorado-Missouri (WACM) balancing authority (BA). Both WAPA and DOE's Water & Power Technology Office (WPTO) are interested in researching how these drier hydrological conditions will impact federal electrical energy production, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power grid, and the value of hydropower in the face of lower production. We study multiple hydrologic and power grid scenarios to understand the grid impacts of the loss of Glen Canyon generation. The study uses a production cost model, water resources planning models, water-centric grid models, and various data analytic techniques. The study progress presentation discusses the selection of probable CRSP' hydropower scenarios and power grid scenarios to understand the impacts of Glen Canyon generation, which includes technologies that compensate the Glen Canyon energy and ancillary services contributions, transmission availability, and energy local marginal prices at interested grid locations of WAPA operation.

droughts↗
DOE OSTI2014

A partial mechanistic understanding of the North American monsoon

Abstract An understanding of the major governing processes of North American monsoon (NAM) is necessary to guide improvement in global and regional climate modeling of the NAM, as well as NAM's impacts on the summer circulation, precipitation, and drought over North America. A mechanistic understanding of the NAM is suggested by incorporating local‐ and synoptic‐scale processes. The local‐scale mechanism describes the effect of the temperature inversion over the Gulf of California (GC) on controlling low‐level moisture during the 2004 NAM. The strong low‐level inversion inhibits the exchange between the moist air in the marine boundary layer (MBL) and the overlying dry air. This inversion weakens with increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in GC and generally disappears once SSTs exceed 29.5°C, allowing the moist air, trapped in the MBL, to mix with free tropospheric air. This leads to a deep, moist layer that can be transported by across‐gulf (along‐gulf) flow toward the NAM core region (southwestern U.S.) to form thunderstorms. On the synoptic scale, climatologies from 1983 to 2010 exhibit a temporal correspondence between coastal warm tropical surface water, NAM deep convection, NAM anticyclone center, and NAM‐induced strong descent. A hypothesis is proposed to explain this correspondence, based on limited soundings at the GC entrance (suggesting this local mechanism may also be active in that region), the climatologies, and the relevant literature. The warmest SSTs moving up the coast may initiate NAM convection and atmospheric heating, advancing the position of the anticyclone and the region of descent northward.

Erfani, Ehsan↗