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Airborne Observations of Particle Density in High Ice Water Content (HWC) Cloud Systems

A series of airborne field campaigns has been conducted since 2014 to measure the microphysical properties of high ice-water content (HIWC) clouds in maritime mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and tropical storms. Two of these, the HIWC RADAR-2 campaign (2018) targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, and the HIWC-2022 campaign targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean, have been analyzed to investigate graupel encounters at typical jet aircraft cruise altitudes. In-situ cloud observations from these two campaigns confirmed results from the prior studies, indicating that high concentrations of small ice particles exist in areas of HIWC. However, in the 2022 campaign, 90% of the cloud regions with ice water content (IWC) above 2.0 g/m3 also contained significant amounts of graupel and/or frozen drops. Using a mass-size parameterization that accounts for both small ice and larger high-density particles, we show that the mass distributions in cloud regions above 2.0 g/m3 are often strongly bimodal, with the small particle mode containing roughly half of the collective cloud mass, and the graupel mode containing the other half. In contrast, HIWC cloud passes in a 2018 tropical cyclone contained less relative graupel mass than the MCS cloud systems of 2018 and 2022. We present two different methods of estimating particle mass for mixed populations of small-ice and graupel particles, one using a hybrid two-class approach, and another using a single-class approach that takes both particle size and shape metrics into account. Derived IWC using these methods are compared to bulk IWC measurements collected during the campaigns. We also show the relative occurrence of graupel at various IWC levels and discuss the potential application of these results in evaluating density-aware microphysical schemes in cloud and weather models.

Aircraft Icing↗

NASA NTRS1995

Application of FEM to estimate complex permittivity of dielectric material at microwave frequency using waveguide measurements

A simple waveguide measurement technique is presented to determine the complex dielectric constant of a dielectric material. The dielectric sample is loaded in a shorted x-band rectangular waveguide. Using a network analyzer; the reflection coefficient of the shorted waveguide (loaded with sample) is measured. Using the Finite Element Method (FEM), the exact reflection coefficient of the shorted waveguide (loaded with sample) is determined as a function of the dielectric constant. Matching the measured value of the reflection coefficient with the reflection coefficient calculated using the FEM utilizing the Newton-Raphson Method, an estimate of the dielectric constant of a dielectric material is obtained. A comparison of estimated values of dielectric constant obtained from simple waveguide modal theory and the present approach is presented.

Deshpande, M. D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen uptake in graphite matrix at high temperature

Tritium management is a critical challenge for the next generation of nuclear reactors, such as Fluoride Salt Cooled High Temperature Reactors (FHRs) and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs), due to the higher production rate (up to 10,000 times) than conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). Graphitic materials employed as moderator, reflector, and fuel pebbles offer a potential pathway for tritium recovery by serving as a sink for tritium. Prediction of uptake capacity under reactor relevant conditions remains a challenge due to a lack of low partial pressure data and significant inter-grade variability of graphite. This study addresses these gaps by providing a comprehensive characterization of hydrogen (as a tritium surrogate) uptake and release behavior in the A3-3 graphite matrix (GM) used in fuel pebbles. Uptake measurements are performed at reactor relevant temperatures of 600- 800 °C, 1-200 Torr hydrogen pressure, and 15-120 min equilibration time, followed by thermal desorption spectroscopy up to 1100 °C. Uptake experiments at different equilibration times demonstrate the role of kinetics in hydrogen uptake, which can be modeled as a diffusion-with-trapping process. In the thermodynamics limit, the Sips adsorption model is shown to capture the uptake in A3-3 GM well. Our campaign provides a set of new results for hydrogen uptake in A3-3, including limiting uptake capacity at 600 °C, apparent diffusion coefficient at 600 °C, and the first estimates of the FHR/HTGR relevant (600 °C, 20 Pa partial pressure) equilibrium uptake capacity and time to saturation. Desorption data highlights a new site for hydrogen uptake, not observed in nuclear graphite, which we attribute to the non-graphitized binder. Using the Kissinger method, we estimate activation energy for release from the desorption peaks, confirming the activation energy for release from the basal planes and providing the first estimate for the activation energy of release from the binder.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions

Meaningful climate predictions should be accompanied by the corresponding uncertainty range. Common methods for estimating the uncertainty range are based on the spread of ensemble predictions. However, a simulation ensemble is not necessarily a proper sample of the real distribution of the climate, and therefore, the ensemble spread cannot be interpreted as the actual uncertainty. We propose a new method that links between the ensemble spread and the uncertainty without relying on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the ensemble predictions. The method is tested using CMIP5 1981-2010 decadal predictions and is shown to outperform other common methods.

Strobach, Ehud↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploiting Kronecker structure in exponential integrators: Fast approximation of the action of φ $-$functions of matrices via quadrature

Here, in this article, we propose an algorithm for approximating the action of φ $-$ functions of matrices against vectors, which is a key operation in exponential time integrators. In particular, we consider matrices with Kronecker sum structure, which arise from problems admitting a tensor product representation. The method is based on quadrature approximations of the integral form of the φ $-$ functions combined with a scaling and modified squaring method. Owing to the Kronecker sum representation, only actions of 1D matrix exponentials are needed at each quadrature node and assembly of the full matrix can be avoided. Additionally, we derive a priori bounds for the quadrature error, which show that, as expected by classical theory, the rate of convergence of our method is supergeometric. Guided by our analysis, we construct a fast and robust method for estimating the optimal scaling factor and number of quadrature nodes that minimizes the total cost for a prescribed error tolerance. We investigate the performance of our algorithm by solving several linear and semilinear time-dependent problems in 2D and 3D. The results show that our method is accurate and orders of magnitude faster than the current state-of-the-art.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Monitoring Stray Natural Gas in Groundwater With Dissolved Nitrogen. An Example From Parker County, Texas

Abstract Concern that hydraulic fracturing and natural gas production contaminates groundwater requires techniques to attribute and estimate methane flux. Although dissolved alkane and noble gas chemistry may distinguish thermogenic and microbial methane, low solubility and concentration of methane in atmosphere‐equilibrated groundwater precludes the use of methane to differentiate locations affected by high and low flux of stray methane. We present a method to estimate stray gas infiltration into groundwater using dissolved nitrogen. Due to the high concentration of nitrogen in atmospheric‐recharged groundwater and low concentration in natural gas, dissolved nitrogen in groundwater is much less sensitive to change than dissolved methane and may differentiate groundwater affected high and low flux of stray natural gas. We report alkane and nitrogen chemistry from shallow groundwater wells and eight natural gas production wells in the Barnett Shale footprint to attribute methane and estimate mixing ratios of thermogenic natural gas to groundwater. Most groundwater wells have trace to nondetect concentrations of methane. A cluster of groundwater wells have greater than 10 mg/L dissolved methane concentrations with alkane chemistries similar to natural gas from the Barnett Shale and/or shallower Strawn Group suggesting that localized migration of natural gas occurred. Two‐component mixing models constructed with dissolved nitrogen concentrations and isotope values identify three wells that were likely affected by a large influx of natural gas with gas:water mixing ratios approaching 1:5. Most groundwater wells, even those with greater than 10‐mg/L methane, have dissolved nitrogen chemistry typical of atmosphere‐equilibrated groundwater suggesting natural gas:water mixing ratios smaller than 1:20.

Larson, Toti E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing measurements of the mixing layer height to modeled values

The mixing layer height (MLH) is the top layer of turbulent mixing within the lower atmosphere, above the Earth’s surface. Estimates of the mixing layer height allow us to determine the volume available for the dispersion of pollutants throughout the atmosphere. Our goal is to identify the most suitable mixing layer height input for our dispersion modeling tool (AERMOD). For this project we evaluated two different methods of estimating the local mixing layer height. First, we use 3 estimates of the mixing layer height obtained from a ceilometer, each height estimate corresponds to a different gradient in aerosol backscatter which is used as a proxy for mixing layer height identification. Second, we use AERMET, our AERMOD modeling system preprocessor for meteorological data, which estimates the mixing layer height using several equations combined with measured meteorological data. We evaluate the ceilometer and AERMET estimates over a 5-year period (2015-2019) to see how well aligned the estimated mixing layer heights are. Our results suggest that our model, AERMET, is on average, aligned with ceilometer estimates during the daytime hours. However, daily maximum MLH estimates by AERMET occur earlier in the day than those estimated by the ceilometer. We believe that the ceilometer struggles with accurately measuring the MLH during nighttime hours as a result of sensor limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Valuation Methodology and Economic Metrics (DSO+T Study: Volume 4)

This report summarizes a rigorous valuation analysis methodology used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to estimate the financial benefits and costs of adopting Transactive Energy coordination of distributed energy resources for key stakeholders (for example distribution system operators and customers). This was achieved by modeling the value exchanges between stakeholders and determining the annualized costs and revenues experienced by stakeholders, enabling the evaluation of overall impact on stakeholder’s annualized cash flow. Extensive work was conducted developing methods to estimate the operating costs of distribution system operators at a level of granularity that would allow the financial impact of implementing a transactive energy approach to be estimated. This work included developing parametric models for labor and software costs, distribution system capital and maintenance costs, growth rates, and factors to determine annualized costs of capital investments. Simulation results were used to calculate wholesale energy costs and revenues from retail sales. Valuation analysis methods were also developed for other stakeholders including customers, the transmission system operator, independent system operator, and generators. The resulting capability allows a complete mapping of the flow of financial value between stakeholders that can be directly integrated with the results of demand flexibility simulations. Example results are provided for a business-as-usual case and compared to a transactive energy case as well as to actual cost data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Area-based composition predictions of materials fabricated using simultaneous wire-powder-directed energy deposition

Functionally graded materials are an emergent method for designing components with programmable site-specific material properties. These materials are typically fabricated using metal additive manufacturing tools by simultaneously feeding multiple wire and/or powder feedstocks at various rates to achieve spatial composition change. The wire-powder-directed energy deposition (WP-DED) technique is of particular interest for many functionally graded material applications by balancing the low raw materials cost of wire with the high resolution of powder. However, feeding wire and powder are inherently different processes since all extruded wire enters the melt pool, while much of the blown powder is scattered, which makes determining the composition of the build challenging. In this study, we devise a simple area-based measurement method for estimating the composition of WP-DED structures. WP-DED single beads are printed using 309L stainless steel wire and commercially pure Fe powder at five wire feed rates (0.5, 0.75, 1.00, 1.25, 1.50 mm/mm) and five powder feed rates (2, 4, 6, 8, 10 rpm). Characteristic defects including interface gaps and macrosegregation (lack of mixing) tendencies are examined. High powder feed rates (8, 10 rpm) result in interface gaps at all wire feed rates, but smooth deposition and complete mixing is achieved at low powder feed rates, particularly with lower wire feed rates as well. The area-based composition measurement method is within ±20% of energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy measurements for all samples, showing its effectiveness as a rapid composition estimate for WP-DED materials development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2016

C/NOFS Remote Sensing of Ionospheric Reflectance

Alfvn waves play critical roles in the electrodynamic coupling of plasmas at magnetically conjugate regions in near-Earth space. Associated electric (E*) and magnetic (dec B*) field perturbations sampled by sensors on satellites in low-Earth orbits are generally super positions of incident and reflected waves. However, lack of knowledge about ionospheric reflection coefficients (alpha) hinders understanding of generator outputs and load absorption of Alfvn wave energies. Here we demonstrate a new method for estimating using satellite measurements of ambient E* and dec B* then apply it to a case in which the Communication Navigation Outage Forecasting System (CNOFS) satellite flew conjugate to the field of view of a 630.0 nm all-sky imager at El Leoncito, Argentina, while medium-scale traveling ionosphere disturbances were detected in its field of view. In regions of relatively large amplitudes of E* and B*,calculated values ranged between 0.67 and 0.88. This implies that due to impedance mismatches, the generator ionosphere puts out significantly more electromagnetic energy than the load can absorb. Our analysis also uncovered caveats concerning the methods range of applicability in regions of low E* and B*. The method can be validated in future satellite-based auroral studies where energetic particle precipitation fluxes can be used to make independent estimates of alpha.

Burke, W. J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Bond Wire Damage Detection and State of Health Estimation of a 1200V, 900A Dual Pack IGBT Power Module using the RL-Equivalent Circuit

Electrical and environmental stresses are the two dominant contributors in aging and failure of power semiconductor devices. Insulated gate bipolar junction transistors (IGBTs) and metal-oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs) are two most commonly used switching devices in power converter circuits. A significant portion of research effort is given in inventing innovative methods to estimate the degradation and fatigue in these devices. Until today, no other existing techniques can determine the number of lifted bond wires and their locations in a live IGBT module, although this information is extremely helpful to understand the overall state of health of an IGBT power module. In this paper, we have proposed a reflectometry-based technique to overcome this hurdle. The RL-equivalent circuit to represent a bond wire has been developed for the device under test and simulated in CST Studio Suite to measure the reflection amplitudes. Experimental results were obtained using a prototype reflectometry hardware, and both the simulation and experimental results have been compared. These results prove that with these two sets of measurements, it is possible to locate the aged device inside a module and detect the number of bond wire lift-offs associated to that device.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photometric Objects around Cosmic Webs (PAC) Delineated in a Spectroscopic Survey. I. Methods

We provide a method for estimating the projected density distribution ${\bar{n}}_{2}{w}_{p}({r}_{p})$ of photometric objects around spectroscopic objects in a spectroscopic survey. This quantity describes the distribution of photometric sources with certain physical properties (e.g., luminosity, mass, and color) around cosmic webs (PAC) traced by the spectroscopic objects. The method can make full use of current and future deep and wide photometric surveys to explore the formation of galaxies up to medium redshift (z s < 2) 3 with the aid of cosmological spectroscopic surveys that sample only a fairly limited species of objects (e.g., emission line galaxies). As an example, we apply the PAC method to the CMASS spectroscopic and HSC-SSP PDR2 photometric samples to explore the distribution of galaxies for a wide range of stellar masses from 10 9.0 to 10 12.0 M ⊙ around massive galaxies at z s ≈ 0.6. Using the abundance-matching method, we model ${\bar{n}}_{2}{w}_{p}({r}_{p})$ in N-body simulation using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, and we accurately measure the stellar–halo mass relation and stellar mass function for the whole mass range. We can also measure the conditional stellar mass function of satellites for central galaxies of different mass. The PAC method has many potential applications for studying the evolution of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Valuation of pollination services from habitat management: a case study of utility scale solar energy facilities in the United States

Creating and maintaining pollinator habitats following the ecological infrastructure concept in degraded or unutilized land, such as solar energy facilities, is a practical way to synergistically advance the food, energy, and ecology nexus. Given the large land-use requirements for solar farming—the fastest growing renewable energy technology–considerable attention has been focused on strategies to maximize multiple ecosystem services. In this study, we coupled the principles of agronomy and ecology with economics and integrated national-scale data on crops, pollinators, and solar facilities to identify locations for creating pollinator habitats and estimating the economic value of pollination from the habitats. We examined opportunities for pollination services from pollinator-friendly utility-scale solar facilities adjacent to 42 million hectares of pollination-dependent crops in the conterminous United States at high resolution of 1 ha. We used the net income method to estimate the potential economic value of creating habitat in the land adjacent to solar facilities in the eight states with the greatest number of solar installations. Creating pollinator habitats at the 217 utility-scale solar facilities in these states could support adjacent 80,000 hectares of high pollinator dependent crops, which could potentially generate a pollination value of $\$$120 to $\$$264 million USD. The location-specific information and high-resolution maps generated for the United States demonstrate integration of grey and green infrastructure to support the food, energy, and environment nexus.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

AlphaBeta: computational inference of epimutation rates and spectra from high-throughput DNA methylation data in plants

Stochastic changes in DNA methylation (i.e., spontaneous epimutations) contribute to methylome diversity in plants. Here, we describe AlphaBeta, a computational method for estimating the precise rate of such stochastic events using pedigree-based DNA methylation data as input. We demonstrate how AlphaBeta can be employed to study transgenerationally heritable epimutations in clonal or sexually derived mutation accumulation lines, as well as somatic epimutations in long-lived perennials. Application of our method to published and new data reveals that spontaneous epimutations accumulate neutrally at the genome-wide scale, originate mainly during somatic development and that they can be used as a molecular clock for age-dating trees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Valuation of Electric Power System Services and Technologies

Accurate valuation of existing and new technologies and grid services has been recognized to be important to stimulate investment in grid modernization. Clear, transparent, and accepted methods for estimating the total value (i.e., total benefits minus cost) of grid technologies and services are necessary for decision makers to make informed decisions. This applies to home owners interested in distributed energy technologies, as well as to service providers offering new demand response services, and utility executives evaluating best investment strategies to meet their service obligation. However, current valuation methods lack consistency, methodological rigor, and often the capabilities to identify and quantify multiple benefits of grid assets or new and innovative services. Distributed grid assets often have multiple benefits that are difficult to quantify because of the locational context in which they operate. The value is temporally, operationally, and spatially specific. It varies widely by distribution systems, transmission network topology, and the composition of the generation mix. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) recently established a benefit-cost framework that proposes a process for estimating multiple benefits of distributed energy resources (DERs) and the associated cost. This document proposes an extension of this endeavor that offers a generalizable framework for valuation that quantifies the broad set of values for a wide range of technologies (including energy efficiency options, distributed resources, transmission, and generation) as well as policy options that affect all aspects of the entire generation and delivery system of the electricity infrastructure. The extension includes a comprehensive valuation framework of monetizable and non-monetizable benefits of new technologies and services beyond the traditional reliability objectives. The benefits are characterized into the following categories: sustainability, affordability, and security, flexibility, and resilience. This document defines the elements of a generic valuation framework and process as well as system properties and metrics by which value streams can be derived. The valuation process can be applied to determine the value on the margin of incremental system changes. This process is typically performed when estimating the value of a particular project (e.g., value of a merchant generator, or a distributed photovoltaic (PV) rooftop installation). Alternatively, the framework can be used when a widespread change in the grid operation, generation mix, or transmission topology is to be valued. In this case a comprehensive system analysis is required.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1990

Clutter filter design considerations for Airborne Doppler radar detection of windshear

The problem of clutter rejection when processing down-looking Doppler radar returns from a low altitude airborne platform is a paramount problem. With radar as a remote sensor for detecting and predicting windshear in the vicinity of an urban airport, dynamic range requirements can exceed 50 dB because of high clutter to signal ratios. This presentation describes signal processing considerations in the presence of distributed and/or discrete clutter interference. Previous analyses have considered conventional range cell processing of radar returns from a rigidly mounted radar platform using either the Fourier or the pulse-pair method to estimate average windspeed and windspeed variation within a cell. Clutter rejection has been based largely upon analyzing a particular environment in the vicinity of the radar and employing a variety of techniques to reduce interference effects including notch filtering, Fourier domain line editing, and use of clutter maps. For the airborne environment the clutter characteristics may be somewhat different. Conventional clutter rejection methods may have to be changed and new methods will probably be required to provide useful signal to noise ratios. Various considerations are described. A major thrust has been to evaluate the effect of clutter rejection filtering upon the ability to derive useful information from the post-filter radar data. This analysis software is briefly described. Finally, some ideas for future analysis are considered including the use of adaptive filtering for clutter rejection and the estimation of windspeed spatial gradient directly from radar returns as a means of reducing the effects of clutter on the determination of a windshear hazard.

Baxa, Ernest G., Jr.↗