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NASA NTRS2007

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Error Propagation Analysis in the SAE Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) and the EDICT Tool Framework

This report documents the capabilities of the EDICT tools for error modeling and error propagation analysis when operating with models defined in the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). We discuss our experience using the EDICT error analysis capabilities on a model of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER) architecture that uses the Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS). Based on these experiences we draw some initial conclusions about model based design techniques for error modeling and analysis of highly reliable computing architectures.

LaValley, Brian W.↗

DOE OSTI2017

ANALYZING METEOROID FLIGHTS USING PARTICLE FILTERS

Fireball observations from camera networks provide position and time information along the trajectory of a meteoroid that is transiting our atmosphere. The complete dynamical state of the meteoroid at each measured time can be estimated using Bayesian filtering techniques. A particle filter is a novel approach to modeling the uncertainty in meteoroid trajectories and incorporates errors in initial parameters, the dynamical model used, and observed position measurements. Unlike other stochastic approaches, a particle filter does not require predefined values for initial conditions or unobservable trajectory parameters. The Bunburra Rockhole fireball, observed by the Australian Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in 2007, is used to determine the effectiveness of a particle filter for use in fireball trajectory modeling. The final mass is determined to be 2.16±1.33 kg with a final velocity of 6030±216 m s{sup −1}, similar to previously calculated values. The full automatability of this approach will allow an unbiased evaluation of all events observed by the DFN and lead to a better understanding of the dynamical state and size frequency distribution of asteroid and cometary debris in the inner solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2016

An Iron-Rain Model for Core Formation on Asteroid 4 Vesta

Asteroid 4 Vesta is differentiated into a crust, mantle, and core, as demonstrated by studies of the eucrite and diogenite meteorites and by data from NASA's Dawn spacecraft. Most models for the differentiation and thermal evolution of Vesta assume that the metal phase completely melts within 20 degrees of the eutectic temperature, well before the onset of silicate melting. In such a model, core formation initially happens by Darcy flow, but this is an inefficient process for liquid metal and solid silicate. However, the likely chemical composition of Vesta, similar to H chondrites with perhaps some CM or CV chondrite, has 13-16 weight percent S. For such compositions, metal-sulfide melting will not be complete until a temperature of at least 1350 degrees Centigrade. The silicate solidus for Vesta's composition is between 1100 and 1150 degrees Centigrade, and thus metal and silicate melting must have substantially overlapped in time on Vesta. In this chemically and physically more likely view of Vesta's evolution, metal sulfide drops will sink by Stokes flow through the partially molten silicate magma ocean in a process that can be envisioned as "iron rain". Measurements of eucrites show that moderately siderophile elements such as Ni, Mo, and W reached chemical equilibrium between the metal and silicate phases, which is an important test for any Vesta differentiation model. The equilibration time is a function of the initial metal grain size, which we take to be 25-45 microns based on recent measurements of H6 chondrites. For these sizes and reasonable silicate magma viscosities, equilibration occurs after a fall distance of just a few meters through the magma ocean. Although metal drops may grow in size by merger with other drops, which increases their settling velocities and decreases the total core formation time, the short equilibration distance ensures that the moderately siderophile elements will reach chemical equilibrium between metal and silicate before metal drop merger becomes important. In this model, there must be at least 30 percent melting of the silicate phase when metal melting is complete, corresponding to a crust thickness of at least 30 kilometers on Vesta, consistent with Dawn gravity observations. Greater degrees of silicate melting and a correspondingly thicker crust are possible if Vesta accreted sufficiently rapidly.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Engineering infinite-range SU($\textit{n}$) interactions with spin-orbit-coupled fermions in an optical lattice

Here, we study multilevel fermions in an optical lattice described by the Hubbard model with on-site SU($\textit{n}$) -symmetric interactions. We show that in an appropriate parameter regime this system can be mapped onto a spin model with all-to-all SU($\textit{n}$)-symmetric couplings. Raman pulses that address internal spin states modify the atomic dispersion relation and induce spin-orbit coupling, which can act as a synthetic inhomogeneous magnetic field that competes with the SU($\textit{n}$) exchange interactions. We investigate the mean-field dynamical phase diagram of the resulting model as a function of $\textit{n}$ and different initial configurations that are accessible with Raman pulses. Consistent with previous studies for $\textit{n}$ = 2 , we find that for some initial states the spin model exhibits two distinct dynamical phases that obey simple scaling relations with $\textit{n}$. Moreover, for $\textit{n}$ > 2 we find that dynamical behavior can be highly sensitive to initial intraspin coherences. Our predictions are readily testable in current experiments with ultracold alkaline-earth-metal(-like) atoms.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

High speed PLIF study of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability upon re-shock

The Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) of a twice-shocked gas interface is researched using high-speed planar-laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) in the Wisconsin Shock Tube Laboratory’s vertical shock tube. The initial condition (IC) is a shear layer with broadband diffuse perturbations at the interface between a helium-acetone mixture and argon. This IC is accelerated by a shock of nominal strength M = 1.8, and then accelerated again by the transmitted shock that reflects off the end wall of the tube. An estimate of the light gas mole fraction is extracted from high-speed imaging using an iterative process that accounts for the nonlinear temperature dependence of the acetone’s fluorescence quantum yield (FQY) and absorption cross-section. A vorticity deposition model for the initial growth rate after reshock is compared with the Mikaelian model for re-shock. Previously used in literature, the number of generations is shown to naturally arise from a normalisation of the scalar transport equation. A self-similar analysis is then further performed using the mole fraction data to explore the evolution of the RMI after reshock and the higher order moments of the light gas mole fraction are compared with a proposed model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven causal model discovery and personalized prediction in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract With the explosive growth of biomarker data in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials, numerous mathematical models have been developed to characterize disease-relevant biomarker trajectories over time. While some of these models are purely empiric, others are causal, built upon various hypotheses of AD pathophysiology, a complex and incompletely understood area of research. One of the most challenging problems in computational causal modeling is using a purely data-driven approach to derive the model’s parameters and the mathematical model itself, without any prior hypothesis bias. In this paper, we develop an innovative data-driven modeling approach to build and parameterize a causal model to characterize the trajectories of AD biomarkers. This approach integrates causal model learning, population parameterization, parameter sensitivity analysis, and personalized prediction. By applying this integrated approach to a large multicenter database of AD biomarkers, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, several causal models for different AD stages are revealed. In addition, personalized models for each subject are calibrated and provide accurate predictions of future cognitive status.

Zheng, Haoyang (ORCID:0000000168358242)↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Hindcast Experiment Using the GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land-Use Module

We report results of a “hindcast” experiment focusing on the agricultural and land-use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We initialize GCAM to reproduce observed agriculture and land use in 1990 and forecast agriculture and land use patterns on 1-year time steps to 2010. We report overall model performance for 9 crops in 14 regions. We report areas where the hindcast is in relatively good agreement with observations and areas where the correspondence is poorer. We find that when given observed crop yields as input data, producers in GCAM implicitly have perfect foresight for yields leading to over compensation for year-to-year yield variation. We explore a simple model in which planting decisions are based on expectations but production depends on actual yields and find that this addresses the implicit perfect foresight problem. Second, while existing policies are implicitly calibrated into IAMs, changes in those policies over the period of analysis can have a dramatic effect on the fidelity model output. Third, we demonstrate that IAMs can employ techniques similar to those used by the climate modeling community to evaluate model skill. We find that hindcasting has the potential to yield substantial benefits to the IAM community.

hindcast, gc, agriculture and landuse modeling, va↗

NASA NTRS2016

Feasibility of Varying Geo-Fence Around an Unmanned Aircraft Operation Based on Vehicle Performance and Wind

Managing trajectory separation is critical to ensuring accessibility, efficiency, and safety in the unmanned airspace. The notion of geo-fences is an emerging concept, where distance buffers enclose individual trajectories and areas of operation in order to manage the airspace. Currently, the Air Traffic Management system for commercial travel defines static distance buffers around the aircraft; however, commercial UASs are envisioned to operate in significantly closer proximity to other UAS requiring a geo-fence for spacing operations. The geo-fence size can be determined based on vehicle performance characteristics, state of the airspace, weather, and other unforeseen events such as emergency or disaster response. Calculation of the geo-fence size could be determined as part of pre-flight planning and during real-time operations. A largely non-homogeneous fleet of UASs will be operating in low altitude and will likely be commercially developed. Due to intellectual property concerns, the operators may not provide detailed specifications of the control system to UTM. In addition, the huge variety of UAS makes modeling each control system prohibitive and flight data for these vehicles may not exist. Therefore, a generalized, simple geo-fence sizing algorithm must be developed such that it does not rely on detailed knowledge of the vehicle control system, accounts for the presence of urban winds, and is sufficiently accurate. In this work, two simple models are investigated to determine its feasibility as an adequate means for calculating the geo-fence size. The vehicle data used in this work are provided by UAS manufactures who have partnered with NASA's UTM project and some publicly available websites. The first model utilizes wind data processed from the NOAA HRRR (Hourly Rapid Refresh) product and Sonar Annemometer data provided by San Jose State. The second model utilizes OpenFOAM which is a CFD code used to generate a wind field for flow around a single building. The key vehicle performance parameters can include UAS response time to disturbances, command to actuation latency, control system rate limits, time to recovery to desired path, and aerodynamics. It was found that the first model provides an initial understanding of geo-fence sizing, but does not provide enough accuracy to provide UTM with an efficient means of scheduling vehicles. The results of the second model reveal that modeling UAS controls systems with a linearized plant and gain scheduled PID controller does not allow capture the UAS flight dynamics within a significant envelope of the wind disturbances.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS1994

Operations and support cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this annual report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center which documents the development of an operations and support (O&S) cost model as part of a larger life cycle cost (LCC) structure. It is intended for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of an operations and support life cycle cost model. Cost categories were initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. A revised cost element structure (CES), which is currently under study by NASA, was used to established the basic cost elements used in the model. While the focus of the effort was on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs, the computerized model allowed for other cost categories such as RDT&E and production costs to be addressed. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the costing model included support and upgrades to the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model. The primary result of the current research has been a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely operations and support cost analysis during the conceptual design activities.

Ebeling, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2015

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to- model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

histories↗

NASA NTRS1972

Accretion process of the moon.

Development of a simple model of the accretion process of the moon to explain its initial temperature distribution. The model assumes that the moon was formed from the accumulation of the solid particles or gases in the isolated, closed cloud. Two equations are derived to calculate the accretion rate and surface temperature of the accreting moon. Numerical calculations are made for a wide range of the particle concentrations and particle velocities in the cloud. A limited set of parameters gives the initial temperature profiles as required by geochemical and geophysical data. These models of the protomoon cloud indicate that the lunar outershell, about 400 km thick, was partially or completely molten just after the accretion of the moon and that the moon should have been formed in a period shorter than 1000 yr. If the moon formed at a position nearer to the earth than its present one, the moon might have been formed in a period of less than one year.

Mizutani, H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of Glass Vitrification Refractory Coupon Tests

The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) at the Hanford site is nearing the start of the Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) operations. DFLAW is destined to convert a pretreated low activity waste portion of the 56 million gallons of tank waste into a stable solid glass. In the subsequent decade completion of the high-level waste (HLW) facility is anticipated. Sustained operational missions of both LAW and HLW melter facilities are expected over multiple decades. In high-temperature glass melters, the refractory lining corrodes over time, which could potentially be an issue for longer term operations, this refractory corrosion is higher at the level of the glass-air interface due to surface tension driven flow. The glass viscosity, melt pool temperature, and glass chemical composition can impact the rate at which the refractory corrodes. This rate is important to quantify for the various waste glasses to be produced at the WTP since the integrity of the refractory should not be a limiting factor affecting the lifetime of the melter. To this end, a series of glasses representative of the first batches of waste glass produced by the WTP will be melted in small-scale crucibles with Monofrax® K-3 coupons inserted. The corrosion of the K-3 will be measured in the melt and at the meltline (or neckline). A model for the corrosion rate will be constructed and implemented into a previously developed framework for a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the full-scale WTP. To assist with experimental design and validate the implementation of the model in the full-scale melter, CFD simulations of the small-scale crucible tests were performed. The bubbling that occurs in the small-scale crucible is initially validated here with a model that uses silicone oil at room temperature. The viscosity of the oil ranges from 1 to 100 Pa•s, which corresponds to operating glass pool temperatures near 1150 °C down to idling temperatures near 950 °C. The simulation results show good agreement with the bubble sizes that form during experiments. CFD modeling of the crucible setup was used to determine bubbling characteristics to match the range of near-wall velocities expected in the full-scale WTP. This study presents the initial CFD modeling results, corrosion testing plan, and some preliminary corrosion samples with an outline for the next steps for the development of the corrosion model.

Abboud, Alexander W. [Idaho National Lab]↗

NASA NTRS1990

Finite-element models of continental extension

Numerical models of the initial deformation of extending continental lithosphere, computed to investigate the control of preexisting thermal and mechanical heterogeneities on the style of deformation, are presented. The finite element method is used to calculate deformation with a viscoelastic-plastic model for the lithosphere. Comparisons of the results of analytic models and finite-element models using this method show that good results may be obtained by the numerical technique, even with elements containing both brittle and viscoelastic sampling points. It is shown that the gross style of initial extensional deformation is controlled by the depth and width of the initial heterogeneity which localizes deformation.

Lynch, H. David↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of prompt D 0 , D + , D *+ , and DS+$ {\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{S}}^{+} $ production in p–Pb collisions at sNN$ \sqrt{{\mathrm{s}}_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of prompt D 0 , D + , D *+, and $D_S^+$ mesons in proton–lead (p–Pb) collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of \mathrm{\sqrt{s_{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV, with an integrated luminosity of 292 ± 11 μb -1 , are reported. Differential production cross sections are measured at mid-rapidity (-96 < y cms < 0.04) as a function of transverse momentum (p T ) in the intervals 0 < p T < 36 GeV/c for D 0 , 1 < p T < 36 GeV/c for D + and D *+ , and 2 < p T < 24 GeV/c for D + mesons. For each species, the nuclear modification factor R pPb is calculated as a function of p T using a proton-proton (pp) reference measured at the same collision energy. The results are compatible with unity in the whole p T range. The average of the non-strange D mesons R pPb is compared with theoretical model predictions that include initial-state effects and parton transport model predictions. The p T dependence of the D 0 , D + , and D *+ nuclear modification factors is also reported in the interval 1 < p T < 36 GeV/c as a function of the collision centrality, and the central-to-peripheral ratios are computed from the D-meson yields measured in different centrality classes. The results are further compared with charged-particle measurements and a similar trend is observed in all the centrality classes. The ratios of the p T -differential cross sections of D 0 , D + , D *+ , and $D_S^+$ mesons are also reported. The $D_S^+$ and D + yields are compared as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity for several p T intervals. No modification in the relative abundances of the four species is observed with respect to pp collisions within the statistical and systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

A library of building occupant behaviour models represented in a standardised schema

During the past four decades, a significant body of literature has reported on the impacts of occupant behaviour (OB) on building technologies, operation, and energy consumption. A large number of data-driven behavioural models have been developed based on field data. These models lack standardisation and consistency, leading to difficulties in applications and comparison. To address this concern, an ontology was developed using the drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework. Recent work has been carried out to implement the theoretical DNAS framework into an eXtensible Markup Language (XML) schema, titled ‘occupant behaviour XML’ (obXML) which is a practical implementation of OB models that can be integrated into building performance simulation (BPS) programs. This paper presents a newly developed library of OB models represented in the standardised obXML schema format. This library provides ready-to-use examples for BPS users to employ more accurate occupant representation in their energy models. The library, which contains an initial effort of 52 OB models, was made publicly available for the BPS community. As part of the library development process, limitations of the obXML schema were identified and addressed, and future improvements were proposed. Authors hope that by compiling this library building, energy modellers from all over the world can enhance their BPS models by integrating more accurate and robust OB patterns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unraveling Reactivity Differences: Room-Temperature Ring-Opening Metathesis Polymerization (ROMP) versus Frontal ROMP

Here, in this study, we explore the distinct reactivity patterns between frontal ring-opening metathesis polymerization (FROMP) and room-temperature solventless ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). Despite their shared mechanism, we find that FROMP is less sensitive to inhibitor concentration than room-temperature ROMP. By increasing the initiator-to-monomer ratio for a fixed inhibitor/initiator quantity, we find reduction in the ROMP background reactivity at room temperature (i.e., increased resin pot life). At elevated temperatures where inhibitor dissociation prevails, accelerated frontal polymerization rates are observed because of the concentrated presence of the initiator. Surprisingly, the strategy of employing higher initiator loading enhances both pot life and front speeds, which leads to FROMP rates exceeding prior reported values by over 5 times. This counterintuitive behavior is attributed to an increase in the proximity of the inhibitor to the initiator within the bulk resin and to whether the temperature favors coordination or dissociation of the inhibitor. A rapid method was developed for assessing resin pot life, and a straightforward model for active initiator behavior was established. Modified resin systems enabled direct ink writing of robust thermoset structures at rates much faster than previously possible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Verification and application of resonance broadened quasi-linear (RBQ) model with multiple Alfvénic instabilities

The resonance broadened quasilinear (RBQ) model for the problem of relaxing the hot ion distribution function in constant-of-motion 3D space [Gorelenkov et al., Nucl. Fusion 58, 082016 (2018)] is presented with the self-consistent evolution of multiple Alfvén eigenmode amplitudes. The RBQ model represents the generalization of the earlier published model [Berk et al., Nucl. Fusion 35, 1661 (1995)] by carefully examining the wave particle interaction in the presence of realistic Alfvén eigenmode (AE) structures and pitch angle scattering with the help of the guiding center code ORBIT. One aspect of the generalization is that the RBQ model goes beyond the local perturbative-pendulumlike approximation for the wave particle dynamics near the resonance. An iterative procedure is introduced to account for eigenstructures varying within the resonances. It is found that a radially localized mode structure implies a saturation level 2–3 times smaller than that predicted by an earlier bump-on-tail quasilinear model that employed uniform mode structures. We apply the RBQ code to a DIII-D plasma with an elevated q-profile where the beam ion profiles exhibit stiff transport properties [Collins et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 095001 (2016)]. Finally, the properties of AE driven fast ion distribution relaxation are studied for validations of the applied RBQ model in DIII-D discharges. Initial results show that the model is robust, is numerically efficient, and can predict fast ion relaxation in present and future burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗