Results for “Model interpretation” — Page 83

NASA NTRS2009

Modeling of the 22 July 2009 Storm

The magnetic storm on 22 July 2009 is the greatest storm observed since the summer of 2008 when TWINS began its stereo imaging of the magnetosphere, On 22 July 2009, the Dst dropped to nearly -80 nT at 07:00 and 10:00 UT. During the main phase and at the peak of the storm, TWINS 1 and 2 were near apogee and moving from pre-dawn to post-dawn local time. The energetic neutral atom (ENA) Imagers on the 2 spacecraft captured the storm intensification and the formation of the partial ring current. The development of this storm has been simulated using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) to understand and interpret the observed signatures. The CRCM reproduced the double-dip in the Dst index and the simulated ENA flux intensities agree very well with the TWINS images. However, the peak of ion flux predicted by the model is always eastward of the observed maximum by TWINS. This discrepancy posts a challenge to reexamine the physical models employed in the CRCM.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Correlation function studies for snow and ice

The random medium model is used to characterize snow and ice fields in the interpretation of active and passive microwave remote sensing data. A correlation function is used to describe the random permittivity fluctuations with the associated mean and variance and correlation lengths; and several samples are investigated to determine typical correlation functions for snow and ice. It is shown that correlation functions are extracted directly from appropriate ground truth data, and an exponential correlation function is observed for snow and ice with lengths corresponding to the actual size of ice particles or air bubbles. Thus, given that a medium has spatially stationary statistics and a small medium, the random medium model can interpret remote sensing data where theoretical parameters correspond to actual physical parameters of the terrain.

Vallese, F.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The extended atmosphere and circumstellar environment of the cool evolved star VX Sagittarii as seen by MATISSE

Context. VX Sgr is a cool, evolved, and luminous red star whose stellar parameters are difficult to determine, which affects its classification. Aims. We aim to spatially resolve the photospheric extent as well as the circumstellar environment. Methods. We used interferometric observations obtained with the MATISSE instrument in the L (3–4 μm), M (4.5–5 μm), and N (8–13 μm) bands. We reconstructed monochromatic images using the MIRA software. We used 3D radiation-hydrodynamics simulations carried out with CO5BOLD and a uniform disc model to estimate the apparent diameter and interpret the stellar surface structures. Moreover, we employed the radiative transfer codes OPTIM3D and RADMC3D to compute the spectral energy distribution for the L, M, and N bands, respectively. Results. MATISSE observations unveil, for the first time, the morphology of VX Sgr across the L, M, and N bands. The reconstructed images show a complex morphology with brighter areas whose characteristics depend on the wavelength probed. We measured the angular diameter as a function of the wavelength and showed that the photospheric extent in the L and M bands depends on the opacity through the atmosphere. In addition to this, we also concluded that the observed photospheric inhomogeneities can be interpreted as convection-related surface structures. The comparison in the N band yielded a qualitative agreement between the N-band spectrum and simple dust radiative transfer simulations. However, it is not possible to firmly conclude on the interpretation of the current data because of the difficulty in constraing the model parameters using the limited accuracy of our absolute flux calibration. Conclusions. MATISSE observations and the derived reconstructed images unveil the appearance of VX Sgr’s stellar surface and circumstellar environment across a very large spectral domain for the first time.

stars: atmospheres↗

NASA NTRS1984

Spectral formation in compact X-ray sources

The gas flows responsible for X-ray spectral emission in compact X-ray sources are complex and likely to be optically thick. In galactic sources these flows include: stellar wind, accretion disk and corona, magnetosphere, and shock at the compact object surface. Active galactic nuclei are surrounded by many dense clouds responsible for the broad optical and UV emission lines. The nature of these flows can be discovered through observations of their X-ray spectra and time variability. Theoretical models for the formation of line and continuum spectra in these sources are described, emphasizing atomic photoabsorption, line emission, and Comptonization. Current observations of X-ray and UV spectra of compact galactic sources and active galactic nuclei are interpreted in terms of these models. Great advances in the understanding of these systems will result from future missions capable of observing their spectra at higher resolution. Observations of the complex of iron K-alpha lines at 6.4-6.7 keV will be particularly valuable.

Mccray, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Quantum Band Model of the nu3 Fundamental of Methanol (CH3OH) and Its Application to Fluorcescence Spectra of Comets

Methanol (CH3OH) radiates efficiently at infrared wavelengths, dominating the C-H stretching region in comets, yet inadequate quantum-mechanical models have imposed limits on the practical use of its emission spectra. Accordingly, we constructed a new line-by-line model for the 3 fundamental band of methanol at 2844 / cm (3.52 micron) and applied it to interpret cometary fluorescence spectra. The new model permits accurate synthesis of line-by-line spectra for a wide range of rotational temperatures, ranging from 10 K to more than 400 K.We validated the model by comparing simulations of CH3OH fluorescent emission with measured spectra of three comets (C/2001 A2 LINEAR, C/2004 Q2 Machholz and 8P/Tuttle) acquired with high-resolution infrared spectrometers at high-altitude sites. The new model accurately describes the complex emission spectrum of the nu3 band, providing distinct rotational temperatures and production rates at greatly improved confidence levels compared with results derived from earlier fluorescence models. The new model reconciles production rates measured at infrared and radio wavelengths in C/2001 A2 (LINEAR). Methanol can now be quantified with unprecedented precision and accuracy in astrophysical sources through high-dispersion spectroscopy at infrared wavelengths

Villanueva, Geronimo L.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Search for dark matter and unparticles in events with a Z boson and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV

A search for dark matter and unparticle production at the LHC has been performed using events containing two charged leptons (electrons or muons), consistent with the decay of a Z boson, and large missing transverse momentum. This study is based on data collected with the CMS detector in 2015, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.3 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions at the LHC, at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No excess over the standard model expectation is observed. Compared to previous searches in this topology, which exclusively relied on effective field theories, the results are interpreted in terms of a simplified model of dark matter production for both vector and axial vector couplings between a mediator and dark matter particles. The first study of this class of models using CMS data at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV is presented. Additionally, effective field theories of dark matter and unparticle production are used to interpret the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

On the freezing time of supercooled drops in developing convective clouds over tropical ocean

Ice generation and evolution in tropical maritime convective clouds are still poorly understood and challenging to model. Aircraft measurements during the Ice in Clouds-Tropical (ICE-T) project suggest that the observed ice particles in intense convective clouds are primarily small at relatively warm temperature (between -7 °C and -10 °C), and large frozen drops are detected at a temperature colder than -10 °C. However, the ice particle size distributions (PSDs) between -7 °C and -10 °C modelled using a parcel model with spectral bin microphysics scheme are much broader than the observation. To interpret the difference in the temperature-dependent ice PSD evolution between the model simulations and the observations, the freezing times and temperatures of supercooled drops are modelled and analyzed. The results indicate that the freezing time (from the initial nucleation to fully frozen) must be considered; it is not instantaneous, and is longer for large drops than for small drops. In strong updrafts, such as that sampled by the Learjet during ICE-T, large freezing drops may be carried upwards to a temperature lower than their nucleation temperature before they are fully frozen. This offers a feasible explanation for the temperature-dependent ice particle size evolution in strong updrafts observed during ICE-T. In models, drop freezing is normally assumed to be instantaneous, which is not realistic; the models yields broader ice PSDs between -7 °C and -10 °C than is observed. The results highlight the importance to consider the freezing time of supercooled drops in interpreting the observed and modelled ice PSDs in growing turrets and in modelling ice generation in cloud resolving models. To better understand the time-dependent drop freezing and its impact on the microphysics and dynamics of convective clouds, more field measurements and laboratory experiments, as well as modelling studies are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Search for New Light Bosons in Higgs Boson Decays

The Standard Model (SM) of particle physics is a theory that summarizes our current knowledge about the most fundamental constituents of matter and interactions between them. The Higgs boson is a central part of the SM as it provides masses to all other particles. After many decades of searches for it, on the 4th of July 2012 CERN announced a discovery of a new particle by CMS and ATLAS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The properties of the new particle and the properties of the Higgs boson predicted by the SM are consistent at the level of precision of current measurements. The extensive physics program of the LHC experiments includes searches for new physics beyond the SM which complement further precision measurements of the properties of the new particle. These searches may lead to earlier confirmation that the particle is not the SM Higgs boson in case the new physics is found. This dissertation is dedicated to a search for decays of the newly discovered particle to pairs of new light bosons, each of which decays into the μ+μ- final state. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.3 fb^-1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. No excess of events above the SM predictions is observed. A model-independent upper limit of 0.86 fb on the product of the cross section times branching fraction times acceptance is set. The obtained limit is applicable to models where the new light bosons have lifetimes corresponding to flight distances within a few cm from the proton beamline before their decay. The recipe for application of the results to an arbitrary model with the same final state is provided. Interpretation of the results in the context of two benchmark models significantly surpasses the sensitivity of previous similar searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗

NASA NTRS1991

A drag measurement technique for free piston shock tunnels

A new technique is described for measuring drag with 100-microsecond rise time on a nonlifting model in a free piston shock tunnel. The technique involves interpretation of the stress waves propagating within the model and its support. A finite element representation and spectral methods are used to obtain a mean square optimal estimate of the time history of the aerodynamic loading. Thus, drag is measured instantaneously and the previous restriction caused by the mechanical time constant of balances is overcome. The effectiveness of the balance is demonstrated by measuring the drag on cones with 5 and 15 deg semi-vertex angles in nominally Mach 5.6 flow with stagnation enthalpies from 2.6 to 33 MJ/kg.

Sanderson, S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Laser ultrasonic assessment of the effects of oxidation and microcracking on the elastic moduli of nuclear graphite

Structure-property relationships in bulk materials can be important in establishing sensing methods to assess the state of material microstructure. This is particularly true for nuclear graphites since these materials can display anisotropy and can become oxidized under service conditions. Both anisotropy and oxidation-induced porosity can influence structural integrity and this must be confirmed during the lifetime of the material. In this work, laser ultrasonic methods were used to measure the elastic response of various graphite grades with a focus on NBG-18, NBG-25 and IG-110. Results of laser ultrasonic measurements in oxidized graphites show that the moduli decrease with increasing porosity. This variation can be interpreted successfully using effective medium models if the characteristics of graphite porosity are taken into account. Results of laser ultrasonic shear wave birefringence measurements can be used to assess elastic anisotropy. This anisotropy can be expressed in terms of the orientation distribution coefficients W400 and W200. Interpretation of results requires the use of appropriate property-averaging schemes.

Zeng, Fan W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH 4 production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH 4 dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH 4 sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH 4 fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 5: Utah FORGE Well 16B(78)-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 4: Utah FORGE Well 78B-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 3: Utah FORGE Well 56-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 1: Summary of Utah FORGE Wells 16A(78)-32, 56-32, 78B-32 and 16B(78)-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Neutral Atmosphere Properties Determining D-region Electron Densities

The increasing discoveries of various manifestations of meteorological control of the D region ionization and the growth of techniques for its measurement provide a challenge to meteorologists to test their insight into middle atmosphere processes with the physical interpretation of D layer phenomena. Models for ion production due to photoionization of minor atmospheric nitric oxide by quasi-monochromatic solar Lyman-alpha radiation are presented. A ground based measuring technique using low frequency radio reflection heights is briefly described and an approach to the interpretation of data acquired by this method is discussed. It is shown that D region electron density variations can provide an efficient diagnostic tool for the detection of perturbations of the circulation state of the middle atmosphere.

Taubenheim, J.↗