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Numerical experiments with a symmetric high-resolution shock-capturing scheme

Characteristic-based explicit and implicit total variation diminishing (TVD) schemes for the two-dimensional compressible Euler equations have recently been developed. This is a generalization of recent work of Roe and Davis to a wider class of symmetric (non-upwind) TVD schemes other than Lax-Wendroff. The Roe and Davis schemes can be viewed as a subset of the class of explicit methods. The main properties of the present class of schemes are that they can be implicit, and, when steady-state calculations are sought, the numerical solution is independent of the time step. In a recent paper, a comparison of a linearized form of the present implicit symmetric TVD scheme with an implicit upwind TVD scheme originally developed by Harten and modified by Yee was given. Results favored the symmetric method. It was found that the latter is just as accurate as the upwind method while requiring less computational effort. Currently, more numerical experiments are being conducted on time-accurate calculations and on the effect of grid topology, numerical boundary condition procedures, and different flow conditions on the behavior of the method for steady-state applications. The purpose here is to report experiences with this type of scheme and give guidelines for its use.

Yee, H. C.↗

Use of MODIS Land and Sea Surface Temperatures to Initialize Mesoscale Models

As computer power continues to increase, mesoscale models are initialized at all hours of the day and continue to be run at higher and higher spatial resolutions. As a result, initializing land surface temperature can be problematic. The majority of research-based models are initialized at 00 and 12 UTC when upper air observations and reanalysis fields are available. The landsea surface temperatures are then set equal to the two-meter air temperature produced by the preprocessor analysis system. This particular procedure might be valid in the early morning hours just prior to sunrise, but it becomes less valid during the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Operational models, such as the Rapid Update Cycle run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), are initialized every hour on a daily basis. This presents a unique challenge to the initial specification of the land temperature, especially during the first several hours of the solar heating cycle when land and overlying air temperatures are far from being the same. Another issue that needs to be addressed is the spatial variability of land surface temperature. By early next year, the NCEP operational Eta model will be employed at 8 km resolution. Methods to accurately specify the initial land surface temperature at such high resolution need to be explored. This paper presents the results of using data from the NASA Moderate Imaging Sensor aboard the TERRA Satellite to initialize land and sea surface temperatures within the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) 5'th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). We have simulated a northern Gulf Coast sea breeze case to demonstrate the utility of using the MODIS data to initialize both the land and sea surface temperature fields. Model grid configurations of 12-, 4-, and l-km are employed.

Arnold, James E.↗

Status and Challenges in the MQXFB Nb 3 Sn Quadrupoles for the HL-LHC

The inner triplet (or low-β) quadrupole magnets are among the components to be upgraded in LHC interaction regions for the HL-LHC project. The new quadrupole magnets, called MQXF, are based on Nb 3 Sn superconducting magnet technology, with a conductor peak field of 11.3 T. CERN is in charge of the fabrication of the MQXFB variant, the longest Nb 3 Sn accelerator magnets designed and manufactured up to now, with a magnetic length of 7.2 m. Two magnets, MQXFBP3 and MQXFB02, reached the HL-LHC project requirements. However, they still exhibited a limitation at 4.5 K with a phenomenology similar to the one observed on the first two prototypes. After improvements on the cold mass (longitudinal welding) and magnet assembly (elimination of overstress on the conductor during loading) procedures, a series of modifications were implemented in MQXFB03 at the level of the coil fabrication to address and/or reduce weaknesses in the coils. The magnet was tested and was the first to achieve performance requirements at both 1.9 K and 4.5 K, with no signs of conductor limitation at 4.5 K. MQXFB is now in the series production phase, with around 2/3 of the coils completed and half of the magnets assembled. We provide in this paper an overview of the MQXFB program, with a summary of the main recent achievements and an overall status of the fabrication.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A software tool to design thermal barrier coatings

This paper summarizes work completed for a NASA Phase 1 SBIR program which demonstrated the feasibility of developing a software tool to aid in the design of thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems. Toward this goal, three tasks were undertaken and completed. Task 1 involved the development of a database containing the pertinent thermal and mechanical property data for the top coat, bond coat and substrate materials that comprise a TBC system. Task 2 involved the development of an automated set-up program for generating two dimensional (2D) finite element models of TBC systems. Most importantly, Task 3 involved the generation of a rule base to aid in the design of a TBC system. These rules were based on a factorial design of experiments involving FEM results, and were generated using a Yates analysis. A previous study has indicated the suitability and benefit of applying finite element analysis to perform computer based experiments to decrease but not eliminate physical experiments on TBC's. This program proved feasibility by expanding on these findings by developing a larger knowledge base and developing a procedure to extract rules to aid in TBC design.

Petrus, G.↗

A software tool to design thermal barrier coatings

This paper summarizes work completed for a NASA Phase 1 SBIR program which demonstrated the feasibility of developing a software tool to aid in the design of thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems. Toward this goal, three tasks were undertaken and completed. Task 1 involved the development of a database containing the pertinent thermal and mechanical property data for the top coat, bond coat and substrate materials that comprise a TBC system. Task 2 involved the development of an automated set-up program for generating two dimensional (2D) finite element models of TBC systems. Most importantly, task 3 involved the generation of a rule base to aid in the design of a TBC system. These rules were based on a factorial design of experiments involving FEM results and were generated using a Yates analysis. A previous study had indicated the suitability and benefit of applying finite element analysis to perform computer based experiments to decrease but not eliminate physical experiments on TBC's. This program proved feasibility by expanding on these findings by developing a larger knowledgebase and developing a procedure to extract rules to aid in TBC design.

Petrus, Gregory↗

Blood Pump Development Using Rocket Engine Flow Simulation Technology

This paper reports the progress made towards developing complete blood flow simulation capability in humans, especially in the presence of artificial devices such as valves and ventricular assist devices. Devices modeling poses unique challenges different from computing the blood flow in natural hearts and arteries. There are many elements needed to quantify the flow in these devices such as flow solvers, geometry modeling including flexible walls, moving boundary procedures and physiological characterization of blood. As a first step, computational technology developed for aerospace applications was extended to the analysis and development of a ventricular assist device (VAD), i.e., a blood pump. The blood flow in a VAD is practically incompressible and Newtonian, and thus an incompressible Navier-Stokes solution procedure can be applied. A primitive variable formulation is used in conjunction with the overset grid approach to handle complex moving geometry. The primary purpose of developing the incompressible flow analysis capability was to quantify the flow in advanced turbopump for space propulsion system. The same procedure has been extended to the development of NASA-DeBakey VAD that is based on an axial blood pump. Due to massive computing requirements, high-end computing is necessary for simulating three-dimensional flow in these pumps. Computational, experimental, and clinical results are presented.

Kwak, Dochan↗

Generalized non-local surface susceptibility model and Fresnel coefficients for the characterization of periodic metafilms with bianisotropic scatterers

Highlights: •Formulas for E/M fields radiated by continuous surface polarization distributions. •Non-local effective surface susceptibility model for periodic metafilms. •Generalized reflection and transmission coefficients for an arbitrary metafilm. •Successful treatment of non-planar scatterer arrays and spatial dispersion effects. -- Abstract: A non-local surface susceptibility model for the consistent description of periodic metafilms formed by arbitrarily-shaped, electrically-small, bianisotropic scatterers is developed in this paper. The rigorous scheme is based on the point-dipole approximation technique and is valid for any polarization and propagation direction of an electromagnetic wave impinging upon the metafilm, unlike existing approaches whose applicability is practically confined to very specific cases of incidence. Next, the universal form of the resulting surface susceptibility matrix is employed for the derivation of the generalized Fresnel coefficients for such surfaces, which enable the comprehensive interpretation of several significant, yet relatively unexamined, physical interactions. Essentially, these coefficients include eight distinct terms, corresponding to the co-polarized and cross-polarized reflection and transmission coefficients for the two orthogonal eigenpolarizations of a linearly-polarized incident plane wave. The above formulas are, then, utilized for the prediction of the scattering properties of metafilms with different planar and non-planar resonators, which are characterized via the featured model and two previously reported local ones. Their comparison with numerical simulation outcomes substantiates the merits of the proposed method, reveals important aspects of the underlying physics, and highlights the differences between the various modeling procedures.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SIRFN Draft Test Protocols for Advanced Battery Energy Storage System Interoperability Functions.

IEA Implementing Agreement for International Smart Grid Action Network, a Cooperative Program on Smart Grids (ISGAN) discussion papers are meant as input documents to the global discussion about smart grids. Each is a statement by the author(s) regarding a topic of international interest. They reflect works in progress in the development of smart grids in the different regions of the world. Their aim is not to communicate a final outcome or to advise decision-makers, but rather to lay the ground work for further research and analysis. In this report, SIRFN laboratories (Sandia, AIT, RSE and FREA) establish a harmonized Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) evaluation/certification protocol for advanced energy storage functions. The authors present this standardized protocol as an adoption or revision option for jurisdictions when creating or modifying certification testing requirements. To complete this process, each laboratory shared information on national, international, and jurisdictional grid codes and standards for BESS. Based on these requirements, and BESS testing and certification literature, a broad list of interoperability functions, use cases, storage capabilities, and requirements were compiled. This list was then consolidated to a unique set of BESS functions for inclusion in the certification procedure. Draft certification protocols for five initial functions were created by the SIRFN group in order to harmonize the international effort to establish a unified set of procedures for interoperability testing of BESS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An Easy Algorithm to Generate Colored Noise Sequences

The need for accurate and efficient simulation of the noise background arises in statistical significance tests for periodic signals buried in colored noise. This paper discusses techniques for generating colored-noise sequences which simulate processes with a given spectral density. Matlab routines based on the fast fractional difference algorithm are presented. These routines can create various stochastic models (e.g., first-order autoregressive (AR(1)), power law (PL), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average ((1, d, 0)), and generalized Gauss Markov (GGM)) that serve as possible candidate null hypotheses to test against in various scenarios. Allan variance and power spectral density (PSD) show that our algorithms are accurate and efficient, and can be easily implemented for stationary noise models and non-stationary PLs with spectral indices up to 2. Our algorithms can also be extended to produce a non-stationary PL with a range-limited steeper PSD (spectral indices up to about 4) using a GGM approximation with a proper break frequency. The red-noise leakage effect on the periodogram is further discussed. The result shows that our GGM approximation has a potential for alleviating the red-noise leakage in the PSD estimates. The Timmer and Koenig procedure is also included for comparison.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Flight Performance of Skylab Attitude and Pointing Control System

In 1967 a paper at the AIAA Guidance, Control and Flight Dynamics Conference in Huntsville, Ala. presented for the first time the prot)osed SKYLAB Attitude and Pointing Control System (APCS) The system requirements, Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM) configuration, control philosophy, and operational modes were presented and the APCS described. The Initial mission and system design requirements changed during the period of time before the SKYLAB was launched. This paper will review the Initial and final APCS requirements and goals and their relationship. The actual flight mission (and Its alterations during the flight) and known achieved APCS performance will then be presented. SKYLAB was a tremendous success in furthering man's scientific knowledge; but perhaps SKYLAB will be remembered more for the anomalies and the efforts undertaken to solve them. On May 14, 1973, the unmanned SKYLAB Orbital Workshop (OWS) was launched from Cape Kennedy. Serious hardware failures began to occur during ascent through the atmosphere and their spectre continued to haunt both the astronauts and their ground based support team. Nor were these the only surprises affecting the design and operation of the APCS. Mission requirements for pointing to various stellar targets and to nadir for earth resources experiments were added after the hardware was designed. The chance appearance of comet Kohoutek during the SKYLAB operational life-time caused NASA to add comet observation to the mission requirements and to adjust the time when the third crew would man the SKYLAB. The development of new procedures and software for the opportunity to observe this visitor to our solar system is described.

Chubb, W. B.↗

Hand-Eye Calibration of Robonaut

NASA's Human Space Flight program depends heavily on Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA's) performed by human astronauts. EVA is a high risk environment that requires extensive training and ground support. In collaboration with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), NASA is conducting a ground development project to produce a robotic astronaut's assistant, called Robonaut, that could help reduce human EVA time and workload. The project described in this paper designed and implemented a hand-eye calibration scheme for Robonaut, Unit A. The intent of this calibration scheme is to improve hand-eye coordination of the robot. The basic approach is to use kinematic and stereo vision measurements, namely the joint angles self-reported by the right arm and 3-D positions of a calibration fixture as measured by vision, to estimate the transformation from Robonaut's base coordinate system to its hand coordinate system and to its vision coordinate system. Two methods of gathering data sets have been developed, along with software to support each. In the first, the system observes the robotic arm and neck angles as the robot is operated under external control, and measures the 3-D position of a calibration fixture using Robonaut's stereo cameras, and logs these data. In the second, the system drives the arm and neck through a set of pre-recorded configurations, and data are again logged. Two variants of the calibration scheme have been developed. The full calibration scheme is a batch procedure that estimates all relevant kinematic parameters of the arm and neck of the robot The daily calibration scheme estimates only joint offsets for each rotational joint on the arm and neck, which are assumed to change from day to day. The schemes have been designed to be automatic and easy to use so that the robot can be fully recalibrated when needed such as after repair, upgrade, etc, and can be partially recalibrated after each power cycle. The scheme has been implemented on Robonaut Unit A and has been shown to reduce mismatch between kinematically derived positions and visually derived positions from a mean of 13.75cm using the previous calibration to means of 1.85cm using a full calibration and 2.02cm using a suboptimal but faster daily calibration. This improved calibration has already enabled the robot to more accurately reach for and grasp objects that it sees within its workspace. The system has been used to support an autonomous wrench-grasping experiment and significantly improved the workspace positioning of the hand based on visually derived wrench position. estimates.

Nickels, Kevin↗

Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Correlation of S-Band Weather Radar Reflectivity and ACTS Propagation Data in Florida

Previous work has shown that Ka-band attenuation due to rainfall and corresponding S-band reflectivity are highly correlated. This paper reports on work whose goal is to determine the feasibility of estimation and, by extension, prediction of one parameter from the other using the Florida ACTS propagation terminal (APT) and the nearby WSR-88D S-band Doppler weather radar facility operated by the National Weather Service. This work is distinguished from previous efforts in this area by (1) the use of a single-polarized radar, preventing estimation of the drop size distribution (e.g., with dual polarization) and (2) the fact that the radar and APT sites are not co-located. Our approach consists of locating the radar volume elements along the satellite slant path and then, from measured reflectivity, estimating the specific attenuation for each associated path segment. The sum of these contributions yields an estimation of the millimeter-wave attenuation on the space-ground link. Seven days of data from both systems are analyzed using this procedure. The results indicate that definite correlation of S-band reflectivity and Ka-band attenuation exists even under the restriciton of this experiment. Based on these results, it appears possible to estimate Ka-band attenuation using widely available operational weather radar data. Conversely, it may be possible to augment current radar reflectivity data and coverage with low-cost attenuation or sky temperature data to improve the estimation of rain rates.

Wolfe, Eric E.↗

Exploration of Uncertainty in Glacier Modelling

There are procedures and methods for verification of coding algebra and for validations of models and calculations that are in use in the aerospace computational fluid dynamics (CFD) community. These methods would be efficacious if used by the glacier dynamics modelling community. This paper is a presentation of some of those methods, and how they might be applied to uncertainty management supporting code verification and model validation for glacier dynamics. The similarities and differences between their use in CFD analysis and the proposed application of these methods to glacier modelling are discussed. After establishing sources of uncertainty and methods for code verification, the paper looks at a representative sampling of verification and validation efforts that are underway in the glacier modelling community, and establishes a context for these within overall solution quality assessment. Finally, an information architecture and interactive interface is introduced and advocated. This Integrated Cryospheric Exploration (ICE) Environment is proposed for exploring and managing sources of uncertainty in glacier modelling codes and methods, and for supporting scientific numerical exploration and verification. The details and functionality of this Environment are described based on modifications of a system already developed for CFD modelling and analysis.

Thompson, David E.↗

The coyote universe extended: Precision emulation of the matter power spectrum

Modern sky surveys are returning precision measurements of cosmological statistics such as weak lensing shear correlations, the distribution of galaxies, and cluster abundance. To fully exploit these observations, theorists must provide predictions that are at least as accurate as the measurements, as well as robust estimates of systematic errors that are inherent to the modeling process. In the nonlinear regime of structure formation, this challenge can only be overcome by developing a large-scale, multi-physics simulation capability covering a range of cosmological models and astrophysical processes. As a first step to achieving this goal, we have recently developed a prediction scheme for the matter power spectrum (a so-called emulator), accurate at the 1% level out to k ∼ 1 Mpc{sup –1} and z = 1 for wCDM cosmologies based on a set of high-accuracy N-body simulations. It is highly desirable to increase the range in both redshift and wavenumber and to extend the reach in cosmological parameter space. To make progress in this direction, while minimizing computational cost, we present a strategy that maximally reuses the original simulations. We demonstrate improvement over the original spatial dynamic range by an order of magnitude, reaching k ∼ 10 h Mpc{sup –1}, a four-fold increase in redshift coverage, to z = 4, and now include the Hubble parameter as a new independent variable. To further the range in k and z, a new set of nested simulations run at modest cost is added to the original set. The extension in h is performed by including perturbation theory results within a multi-scale procedure for building the emulator. This economical methodology still gives excellent error control, ∼5% near the edges of the domain of applicability of the emulator. A public domain code for the new emulator is released as part of the work presented in this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Aircraft Configuration and Flight Crew Compliance with Procedures While Conducting Flight Deck Based Interval Management (FIM) Operations

Flight deck based Interval Management (FIM) applications using ADS-B are being developed to improve both the safety and capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS). FIM is expected to improve the safety and efficiency of the NAS by giving pilots the technology and procedures to precisely achieve an interval behind the preceding aircraft by a specific point. Concurrently but independently, Optimized Profile Descents (OPD) are being developed to help reduce fuel consumption and noise, however, the range of speeds available when flying an OPD results in a decrease in the delivery precision of aircraft to the runway. This requires the addition of a spacing buffer between aircraft, reducing system throughput. FIM addresses this problem by providing pilots with speed guidance to achieve a precise interval behind another aircraft, even while flying optimized descents. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) human-in-the-loop experiment employed 24 commercial pilots to explore the use of FIM equipment to conduct spacing operations behind two aircraft arriving to parallel runways, while flying an OPD during high-density operations. This paper describes the impact of variations in pilot operations; in particular configuring the aircraft, their compliance with FIM operating procedures, and their response to changes of the FIM speed. An example of the displayed FIM speeds used incorrectly by a pilot is also discussed. Finally, this paper examines the relationship between achieving airline operational goals for individual aircraft and the need for ATC to deliver aircraft to the runway with greater precision. The results show that aircraft can fly an OPD and conduct FIM operations to dependent parallel runways, enabling operational goals to be achieved efficiently while maintaining system throughput.

Shay, Rick↗

Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Given the reality of anthropogenic global warming, it is tempting to seek an anthropogenic component in any recent change in the statistics of extreme weather. This paper cautions that such efforts may, however, lead to wrong conclusions if the distinctively skewed and heavy-tailed aspects of the probability distributions of daily weather anomalies are ignored or misrepresented. Departures of several standard deviations from the mean, although rare, are far more common in such a distinctively non-Gaussian world than they are in a Gaussian world. This further complicates the problem of detecting changes in tail probabilities from historical records of limited length and accuracy. A possible solution is to exploit the fact that the salient non-Gaussian features of the observed distributions are captured by so-called stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distributions that include Gaussian distributions as special cases. SGS distributions are associated with damped linear Markov processes perturbed by asymmetric stochastic noise and as such represent the simplest physically based prototypes of the observed distributions. The tails of SGS distributions can also be directly linked to generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The Markov process model can be used to provide rigorous confidence intervals and to investigate temporal persistence statistics. The procedure is illustrated for assessing changes in the observed distributions of daily wintertime indices of large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors over the period 1872–2011. No significant changes in these indices are found from the first to the second half of the period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗