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DOE OSTI2022

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Morphology Control of Carbon-Free Spinel NiCo 2 O 4 Catalysts for Enhanced Bifunctional Oxygen Reduction and Evolution in Alkaline Media

Spinel NiCo 2 O 4 is considered a promising precious metal-free catalyst that is also carbon-free for oxygen electrocatalysis. Current efforts mainly focus on optimal chemical doping and substituent to tune its electronic structures for enhanced activity. Here, we study its morphology control and elucidate the morphology-dependent catalyst performance for bifunctional oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) and oxygen evolution reaction (OER). Three types of NiCo 2 O 4 catalysts with significantly distinct morphologies were prepared using temple-free, Pluronic-123 (P-123) soft, and SiO 2 hard templates, respectively, via hydrothermal methods following by a calcination. While the hard-template yields sphere-like dense structures, soft-template assists the formation of a unique nano-needle cluster assembly containing abundant meso- and macro pores. Furthermore, the effect of morphology of NiCo 2 O 4 on their corresponding bifunctional catalytic performance was systematically investigated. The flower-like nano-needle assembly NiCo 2 O 4 catalyst via the soft template method exhibited the highest catalytic activity and stability for both ORR and OER. In particular, it exhibited an onset and half-wave potentials of 0.94 and 0.82 V vs. RHE, respectively, for the ORR in alkaline media. Although it is still inferior to Pt, the NiCo 2 O 4 represents one of the best ORR catalyst compared to other reported carbon-free oxides. Meanwhile, remarkable OER activity and stability were achieved with an onset potential of 1.48 V and a current density of 15 mA/cm 2 at 1.6 V, showing no activity loss after 20,000 potential cycles (0 to 1.9 V). The demonstrated stability is even superior to Ir for the OER. The morphology-controlled approach provides an effective solution to create a robust 3D architecture with increased surface areas and enhanced mass transfer. More importantly, the soft template can yield high degree of spinel crystallinity with ideal stoichiometric ratios between Ni and Co, thus promoting structural integrity with enhanced electrical conductivity and catalytic properties.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2000

Ground Based, Millimeter Wave Measurement of Ozone in the Middle Atmosphere

There is a need for highly reliable measurements of stratospheric ozone. Policy makers worldwide concerned with public health rely oil a clear consensus from the scientific community as a basis for ozone-related environmental policy that has a significant impact oil national economies. Tile latest Such consensus was presented in WMO, and used in a 1999 meeting of the parties considering amendments to the Montreal Protocol oil Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Tile scientific community, in turn, needs highly precise and accurate measurements of ozone levels, and small time derivatives of these levels, both in continued - development of its understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved and as clear evidence that these processes are occurring as stated. Over most of the world, changes in ozone levels are small. For example, over the heavily populated northern midlatitudes, the linearized rate of ozone decline is between 0.2% per year and 0.7% per year, depending on altitude. These values are small enough to make measurement requirements technically challenging. Data quality may suffer from imperfections in individual instruments. In one instance, early results from a satellite-borne ozone sensor were later found to be invalid because of calibration drift. Even in the absence of drift, tile absolute calibration of a new sensor may differ slightly from that of its predecessor in service. Most ozone remote sensing instruments operate at ultraviolet or infrared wavelengths where scattering from dust and aerosols must be taken into account; results from these systems may be or are affected following a major volcanic eruption, such as tile one at Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. Given these difficulties, a consensus of measurements from several independent systems is required to insure a reliable understanding of stratospheric ozone levels. Because of the above-described need for highly precise and accurate ozone measurements using several independent techniques, there was interest in developing several techniques which were known but not highly developed in the 1980's into systems capable of being used in ail operational manner to make measurements with the level of quality needed to-detect small trends in ozone levels. A ground-based microwave instrument capable of remotely sensing stratospheric ozone had been designed by tile Principal Investigator of the present project. This instrument was built at tile Millitech Corporation in South Deerfield, Massachusetts before tile present work began. (Funding for design and construction of the instrument came from sources other than the present grant.) Tile instrument measured the spectrum of one of the many emission lines produced by purely rotational transitions of ozone, one at a frequency of 110.8 GHz. The altitude distribution of ozone can. in principle, be retrieved from the details of the pressure-broadened spectrum of the ozone transition. However, the level of contamination of the spectral measurement by instrumentally induced artifacts must be very low in order to retrieve a ozone profile of useful quality from it. The Millitech instrument demonstrated spectral purity at ail adequate level, and there were promising ideas for instrumental improvements and for further development of the technique. The initial objectives of the present project, then, were to develop techniques for calibrating the Millitech instrument, to minimize artifacts in tile spectra it produces, to optimally retrieve ozone profiles from tile spectra, to test tile quality of the microwave profiles by comparing them with profiles obtained using several other, independent techniques over both short and periods of time, and to perform research using the ozone data gathered with the instrument.

Parrish, Alan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced HVAC Humidity Control for Hot-Humid Climates

During this project we develop and validate a cost-effective, integrated control solution to improve humidity control and comfort for energy-efficient homes in hot-humid climates. This study focuses on developing a strategy that is effective, field tested, and practical for builders to install with minimal disruption to standard practices. A successful solution would simplify the transition to high-performance humidity control and be the basis for design and installation guidance. By relying on the central system as a starting point, the strategy employed minimizes system complexity and cost for builders, while improving comfort and operating cost for homeowners. The solution strategy was to coordinate the cooling, dehumidification, and ventilation functions of central, ducted HVAC systems to better control indoor humidity, improve occupant thermal comfort, and capture energy savings. The primary strategic goals were to: (1) optimize dehumidification by the central air-conditioning system, particularly during part-load conditions, using conventional equipment with modified control settings and lower system airflows; (2) maximize ventilation during heating/cooling on-cycles, to “bank” and condition outdoor ventilation air, and minimize ventilation during off-cycles; (3) quantify the effectiveness and energy impact of the dehumidification and ventilation strategies, while identifying a metric that would be useful to evaluate latent effectiveness. For the test houses in our study, located in Richmond Hill, Georgia; Houston, Texas; and Monroe, Louisiana we observed: (1) the indoor humidity did not exceed 60% RH during the monitored cooling season for 99% of the time in Richmond Hill, 96% of the time in Houston, and 90% of the time in Monroe; (2) the dehumidification strategy improved the steady-state latent capacity of the HVAC system at design conditions by 16% to 49% at the Houston test house and by 28% to 71% at the Monroe test house, depending on which mode the system was operating in; and (3) the good results at the test houses were primarily due to the amount of time the air-conditioning system operated in ramping or dehumidification modes, or both, particularly during the early cooling season. This study demonstrates that air conditioners or heat pumps with a single-stage compressor can provide good humidity control without the need for a two-stage or variable-stage compressor system. The airflow and control settings for ramping and dehumidification modes are critical to control indoor humidity in hot-humid climates, particularly during part-load and shoulder season conditions. The dehumidification strategy used in this study did not jeopardize the mechanical reliability of the cooling equipment. The strategies used in this study are applicable across various equipment brands, models, and efficiency levels, and also applicable to a broad range of homes in hot-humid climates. Results will vary by specific equipment, location, and house configuration and construction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancements in Development and Testing of Thermal Power Dispatch Simulators

Flexible plant operations and generation (FPOG) offer nuclear power plants (NPPs) the chance to leverage alternative, non-electric revenue streams while ensuring their continued role as reliable, clean, and constant sources of baseload electrical power. The excess thermal energy generated from NPPs during periods of low electricity demand can be channeled as raw materials to numerous industrial processes via a thermal power dispatch (TPD) system. Hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) is an optimal use case based on technical and economic feasibility. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have conducted previous works that developed and implemented TPD system models within the GSE Solutions Generic Pressurized Water Reactor (GPWR) simulator to support human-in-the-loop (HITL) scenario-based evaluations. The first part of this report documents modifications made to the GPWR TPD model and HMI from the previous iteration in line with a new Sargent and Lundy (S&L) TPD design with an automatic control system. The was done in collaboration with Westinghouse using their three-loop pressurizer water reactor (W3LPWR) simulator which contains an industrial grade automatic control system for the TPD. This was installed in the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL. The second part of the report documents findings from an all-hands-on-deck integration and verification workshop that was conducted in the HSSL over several days. The research team comprised INL human factors and TPD experts, a nuclear engineer from GSE Solutions who implemented the revised TPD model for GPWR, the human-machine interface (HMI) prototyping and human factors team from the University of Idaho, and personnel with operations experience with pressurized water reactors. The workshop provided time and expertise to conduct the final activities to bring the operations, HMI, and simulator into a functional state. The goals of the integration and verification workshop were: 1. to install the revised GPWR TPD model into the HSSL 2. verify the TPD HMI prototype was functional 3. integrate the HTSE Simulink model to GPWR. 3. Issues were identified for resolution, but overall the workshop accomplished its goal to integrated and verify the majority of the intended functional. Future work will resolve the identified issues and use the integrated simulation to support an evaluation and demonstration in the next fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Applying DER-CAM for IIT Microgrid Explansion Planning

The Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) is an economic and environmental model of customer DER adoption. This model has been in development at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory since 2000. The objective of the model is to find optimal DER investments while minimizing total energy costs or carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, or achieving a weighted objective that simultaneously considers both criteria. The Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) Microgrid project started in August 2008, and the majority of the project was completed in May 2013. IIT Microgrid, funded mostly by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy as well as State and philanthropic contributions, empowers the campus consumers with the objective of establishing a smart microgrid that is highly reliable, economically viable, environmentally friendly, fuel-efficient, and resilient in extreme circumstances with a self-healing capability. In this project, we apply DER-CAM to study the expansion planning of the IIT Microgrid. First, the load data, environmental data, utility data, and technology data for the IIT Microgrid are gathered and organized to follow the DER-CAM input requirements. Then, DERCAM is applied to study the expansion planning of the IIT Microgrid for different cases, where different objectives in DER-CAM and different utility conditions are tested. Case 1 considers the objective of minimizing energy costs with fixed utility rates and 100% electric utility availability. Case 2 considers the objective of minimizing energy costs with real-time utility rates and 4 emergency weeks when the IIT Microgrid does not have access to the electric utility grid and has to operate in island mode. In Case 3, the utility rates are restored to fixed values and 100% electric utility availability is assumed, but a weighted multi-objective (Obj: a × costs + b × CO2 emissions, where a and b are weights for cost minimization and CO2 emissions minimization) is utilized to consider both energy costs and CO2 emissions. On the basis of the test results, the IIT Microgrid has the potential to benefit from investments in more DER technologies. The current annual energy costs and CO2 emissions for the IIT Microgrid are 6,495.1 k$ and 39,838.5 metric tons, respectively. This represents the baseline for this project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, and day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved relative to DA forecasts, but still imperfect. Finally, we represent decisions within the operating hour by schedulers and transmission system operators as real-time (RT) balancing. We simulate the DA and HA scheduling processes with a detailed unit-commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) optimization model. This model creates a least-cost dispatch and commitment plan for the conventional generating units using forecasts and reserve requirements as inputs. We consider only the generation units and load of the utility in this analysis; we do not consider opportunities to trade power with neighboring utilities. We also do not consider provision of reserves from renewables or from demand-side options. We estimate dynamic reserve requirements in order to meet reliability requirements in the RT operations, considering the uncertainty and variability in load, solar PV, and wind resources. Balancing reserve requirements are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of 1-min deviations from the HA schedule in a previous year. We then simulate RT deployment of balancing reserves using a separate minute-by-minute simulation of deviations from the HA schedules in the operating year. In the simulations we assume that balancing reserves can be fully deployed in 10 min. The minute-by-minute deviations account for HA forecasting errors and the actual variability of the load, wind, and solar generation. Using these minute-by-minute deviations and deployment of balancing reserves, we evaluate the impact of PV on system reliability through the calculation of the standard reliability metric called Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2). Broadly speaking, the CPS2 score measures the percentage of 10-min periods in which a balancing area is able to balance supply and demand within a specific threshold. Compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability standards requires that the CPS2 score must exceed 90% (i.e., the balancing area must maintain adequate balance for 90% of the 10-min periods). The combination of representing DA forecast errors in the DA commitments, using 1-min PV data to simulate RT balancing, and estimates of reliability performance through the CPS2 metric, all factors that are important to operating systems with increasing amounts of PV, makes this study unique in its scope.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Neutronics Analysis of TREAT Multi-SERTTA Calibration Test Vehicle (Multi-SERTTA CAL)

Transient testing is a necessary step in the performance evaluation of Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) developed as part of the Fuel Cycle Research and Development Advanced Fuels Campaign initiated and supported by the United States Department of Energy (DOE-NE). These advanced fuels are expected to be used in future reactors or replace the current fuel design used in existing power reactors for enhanced performance and safety. Upon completion of a process proscribed by the National Environmental Policy Act, the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility, located at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), was chosen by DOE-NE to provide the desired specialized testing. TREAT has successfully operated from start-up in 1959 to 1994 when it was placed on operational stand-by. Careful preparations are being made for operational readiness and TREAT is projected to resume testing no later than 2018. Past TREAT testing primarily focused on sodium-cooled reactor fuels (SRF). Test vehicle designs varied to accommodate testing needs ranging from separate effects tests to integral tests approaching simulation of actual reactor environment conditions including forced convection cooling. The current focus on light water reactor (LWR) ATF requires design of new experiment vehicles to accommodate the water/steam environment and associated complexities regarding desired energy deposition into the specimen and proper containment. The first set of experiments in TREAT restart is expected to be conducted with the Multi-SERTTA (Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatuses). Difficult to quantify and calculate integral and time dependent effects inherent in transient testing limit predictive modeling capability; therefore, calibration testing in TREAT prior to the actual experiment is necessary to empirically determine the effectiveness of core-to-specimen power coupling in order to achieve the desired energy deposition into the test specimen during a nuclear power transient. This has been done in the past, in part, by evaluating the difference in energy deposition into dosimeter wires subjected to various TREAT time dependent power conditions. These calibration tests were typically conducted in a test vehicle neutronically similar to the actual test vehicle, but more simplistic in design in order to quickly retrieve and analyze dosimeter wires and minimize containment structure costs due to several trials. Prior calibration testing for SRF experiments could be conducted without coolant as sodium has no notable neutronic effect on the core-to-specimen power coupling factor (PCF). Such is not the case with LWR fuel where water serves as both moderator and coolant. This presents a design challenge as the calibration test vehicle must retain heated, high-pressure water to preserve neutronic equivalence representative of near prototypic reactor conditions while allowing for quick retrieval of dosimeters. The solution to this challenge comes in the form of a thin walled dry well positioned through the center of the basic Multi-SERTTA design. Test vehicle reactivity worth and PCF are two important factors with respect to ascertainment of neutronic equivalence. Similarity in test vehicle reactivity worth is desired to avoid the need to change operational core rod positions in TREAT which could significantly alter neutron flux distribution and consequently power distribution throughout the core and into the test specimen. The geometry and composition of various materials within the experiment containment structure can also significantly alter the quality of neutron signal delivery from the core to the test specimen. Introduction of an Inconel tube, albeit very thin, is expected to impact PCF. Simple modifications to the CAL design may compensate for the anticipated change. Evaluation of these factors and proposed modifications through neutronics analysis serves to inform experiment design and is a valuable tool towards achieving the optimal CAL design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Analysis of Nuclear-Powered Data Center Scenarios

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for nuclear energy to meet the growing energy demands of data centers (DCs). It evaluates the technical, economic, and socio-environmental implications of coupling Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with DCs, providing initial responses to several key research questions: What is the potential increased energy demand from DCs in the U.S., in the short, medium and long term? The U.S. is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand from DCs, with projections indicating a total increase of 24-74 GWy(e) by 2028. Meeting this demand with nuclear energy would require 27–85 GWe of installed capacity. While this surge is expected to slow in the long term, the DC industry needs reliable, scalable, and clean energy sources. How much nuclear capacity can be deployed to meet DC demand and in which timeframe? Several pathways for increasing nuclear capacity were identified, including uprates, restarts of recently retired reactors, power purchase agreements with existing fleet, and new construction. Approximately 20‒28 GWe of nuclear capacity could be dedicated to DCs by the early 2030s. How much High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) would be needed to support some nuclear deployment scenarios for DCs? Meeting the deployment targets announced by Google and Amazon for the Kairos Power Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor or KP-FHR (~500 MWe by 2035) and the Xe-100 (~1 GWe by 2040), respectively, requires ramping up 19.75% enriched HALEU production to ~6 t/yr by 2040. What types of nuclear energy/DC coupling options exist, and what are the different benefits/challenges? Five coupling options were analyzed, ranging from grid-connected configurations to colocated, behind-the-meter setups. Key design considerations include the proximity to high- and/or medium-voltage transmission lines, the desired internal fault tolerance, and the sources of alternative/backup power during outages. Each coupling option offers unique benefits and challenges in terms of reliability, system costs, regulation, timeline, etc. A list of NPP/DC deployment scenarios was developed, considering existing or newly built NPP or DC projects. Colocated DCs with new small modular reactors or large reactors on greenfield and brownfield sites are the focus of this report. What types of reactors, especially what size, may be incentivized by DCs? Reactor sizing optimization revealed that the ideal reactor size and number of units depend on DC demand, coupling configurations defined in this report, and other economic factors. Larger reactors are preferred for high-demand DCs and grid-connected systems, while larger number of smaller reactors are better suited for DC configurations without grid backup. Which sites may be compatible with co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Siting those projects is a complicated evaluation factoring local water resources, grid connection availability and reliability, IT infrastructure, local work force, proximity to population zones, etc. For this effort greenfield and brownfield sites such as retired coal-fired plants were used to evaluate this question. This evaluation is not meant to recommend any particular site but it highlights key siting criteria and demonstrates large-scale site availability. What are the socio-economic impacts of co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Those projects generate substantial economic benefits to the local economy, particularly in urban settings. Hyperscale DCs colocated with nuclear power plants (sized around 1 GW of power) can create nearly 1,700 jobs for annual operations and more than 7,300 jobs among the supply chain and local businesses as a result of increased household spending. Rural projects also provide significant benefits, but at lower magnitudes compared to urban deployments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Defining Determinants and Dynamics and Cellulose Microfibril Biosynthesis, Assembly and Degredation OSP Number: 63079/A001

The central paradigm for converting plant biomass into soluble sugars for subsequent conversion to transportation fuels involves the enzymatic depolymerization of lignocellulosic plant cell walls by microbial enzymes. Despite decades of intensive research, this is still a relatively inefficient process, due largely to the recalcitrance and enormous complexity of the substrate. A major obstacle is still insufficient understanding of the detailed structure and biosynthesis of major wall components, including cellulose. For example, although cellulose is generally depicted as rigid, insoluble, uniformly crystalline microfibrils that are resistant to enzymatic degradation, the in vivo structures of plant cellulose microfibrils are surprisingly complex. Crystallinity is frequently disrupted, for example by dislocations and areas containing chain ends, resulting in “amorphous” disordered regions. Importantly, microfibril structure and the relative proportions of crystalline and non-crystalline disordered surface regions vary substantially and yet the molecular mechanisms by which plants regulate microfibril crystallinity, and other aspects of microfibril architecture, are still entirely unknown. This obviously has a profound effect on susceptibility to enzymatic hydrolysis and so this is a critical area of research in order to characterize and optimize cellulosic biomass degradation. The entire field of cell wall assembly, as distinct from polysaccharide biosynthesis, and the degree to which they are coupled, are relatively unexplored, despite the great potential for major advances in addressing the hurdle of biomass recalcitrance. Our overarching hypothesis was that identification of the molecular machinery that determine microfibril polymerization, deposition and structure will allow the design of more effective degradative systems, and the generation of cellulosic materials with enhanced and predictable bioconversion characteristics. Our experimental framework had been based on the idea that the most effective way to address this long standing and highly complex question is to adopt a broad ‘systems approach’. Accordingly, we assembled a multi-disciplinary collaborative team with collective expertise in plant biology and molecular genetics, polymer structure and chemistry, enzyme biochemistry and biochemical engineering. We used a spectrum of cutting edge technologies, including plant functional genomics, chemical genetics, live cell imaging, advanced microscopy, high energy X-ray spectroscopy and nanotechnology, to study the molecular determinants of cellulose microfibril structure. Importantly, this research effort was closely coupled with an analytical pipeline to characterize the effects of altering microfibril architecture on bioconversion potential, with the goal of generating predictive models to help guide the identification, development and implementation of new feedstocks. This project therefore spanned core basic science and applied research, in line with the goals of the program. Over the course of the project, accomplishments included: - Establishing platforms through reverse and forward genetics to identify and manipulate candidate genes that influence cellulose microfibril synthesis and structure in a model C3 grass, Brachypodium distachyon and a model C4 grass Setaria viridis; Identifying and characterizing the effects of a number of cellulose biosynthesis inhibitors (CBIs), and particularly those that target monocots with the aim of generating resistance loci; Developing protocols for the use of high energy X-ray diffraction (XRD) to study the structure and organization of cellulose microfibrils in plant walls, notably those in Arabidopsis and Brachypodium; Using the chemical and genetic based inhibition strategies to develop new mechanistic models of cellulose microfibril crystallization, and of how altering microfibril architecture influences digestibility.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data Curation for Machine Learning Applied to Geothermal Power Plant Operational Data for GOOML: Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach to physics-guided, data-centric machine learning. This framework has been used to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with operational environments to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management in real world applications. To create, test, and apply the GOOML framework, diverse time-series datasets spanning multiple years were sourced from various geothermal power plant components within several complex real-world geothermal operations. These operations are based in the United States and New Zealand and include a variety of technologies, end-uses and configurations, collectively covering nearly all relevant operating conditions for modern geothermal fields. Datasets were acquired from multiple sources to ensure that machine learning experiments generalized properly to various operating conditions. It was found that the data varied in quality, format, and completeness. To ensure consistency between the various datasets, a standardized data curation process was developed to reliably streamline data preparation. This paper will discuss best practices as learned from the GOOML data curation process which takes the following steps: 1) acquisition of large quantities of data from power plant operators, 2) digestion of data to gain an initial understanding of what is included, 3) data transformation, which includes converting the data into a standardized machine-readable format so that they can be visualized, quality checked, and cleaned, 4) quality assurance and quality control, involving identification of significant data gaps and apparent anomalies through mapping of data features to real world componentry via the GOOML historical model, followed by discussion with modelers and power plant operators to identify additional data needs and to resolve issues, 5) use in machine learning algorithms, and 6) repetition of steps one through five until all data needs are met and data are deemed suitable for producing trustworthy modeling results which may be disseminated, ideally along with the curated dataset. This iterative process is focused on improving the quality of the data rather than tuning machine learning model parameters and supports a shift towards data-centric AI as a means to improving real-world applicability of geothermal machine learning projects.

access↗
DOE OSTI2025

CSP Systems Analysis 2022-2024 (Final Technical Report)

The CSP Systems Analysis project estimates the current market cost of CSP subsystems and technologies for use by the DOE Program and within NREL analysis tools. The project addresses upgrades to NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) related to CSP, as well as development of new modules within SAM to expand the types of CSP systems that can be simulated and new tools for evaluating CSP subsystem performance or optimizing CSP system layouts, for example, SolarPILOT and SolTrace. The project evaluates the potential cost and performance of new CSP-relevant technologies and generally includes assessment of CSP technologies in support of the DOE subprogram. A primary goal of the CSP System Analysis project is to provide timely and accurate cost data to the DOE to assess the current state of CSP technologies as well as predict performance and cost for pre-commercial and emerging technologies that may impact the industry. Prior work in this task has produced technology cost reports and roadmaps for DOE and highlighted promising research paths that could reduce overall CSP cost, such as the supercritical CO2 power cycle and molten-salt trough systems. CSP Systems Analysis produces modeling tools to evaluate the performance of CSP systems, subsystems, or components, and journal articles, conference papers, technical reports and databases to disseminate information to the CSP industry. CSP technology costs are estimated and tracked using these tools as well as analysis of literature and industry sources. The CSP modeling tools and NREL analysis results are used by researchers; government, financial, and industry analysts; and other CSP stakeholders. The purpose of this final technical report is to summarize the key accomplishments of the past three years of this project. The project was divided into seven separate tasks, and in what follows, we describe the background, objectives, key accomplishments, and path forward for each task within the project, with one section of this report summarizing each task.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subtask 1.5 – CO2 Injection Monitoring with an Optimized Scalable, Automated, Semipermanent Seismic Array

The scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) method is a flexible and relatively cost-effective surface geophysical method for regular time-lapse monitoring of the movement of injected carbon dioxide (CO2) in a reservoir for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) or geologic CO2 storage operations. It has the advantages of a low-environmental-footprint while monitoring regions of a reservoir from the surface without the need for a regular grid distribution of receivers. Automated data collection is possible. As only time-lapse amplitude changes at the reservoir level due to CO2 movement within the reservoir are monitored, the turnaround time to deliver results from the SASSA method can be short, without the need for long, time-consuming data-processing workflows. As data is collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a SASSA field test from September 2018 to November 2020 in a portion of the Bell Creek Field in Montana, which implemented new CO2 EOR field activities during the study period. Lessons learned from a proof-of-concept study were incorporated to improve the data quality of the SASSA method and demonstrate the viability of the technology. The EERC implemented several enhancements to improve data quality, including 1) an iterative survey design, which allowed placing the receivers in strategic locations where the movement of the CO2 in the reservoir could be tracked with minimum interference by the cultural noise in the study area; 2) the use of powerful seismic sources in the form of surface orbital vibrators, and 3) data acquisition during optimal periods. History-matched reservoir simulation was performed to predict gas saturation and pressure response induced by CO2 injection in the study area. The results were compared with the SASSA-measured responses to CO2 injection as a partial validation technique. A match between the two methods was observed for most of the SASSA points predicted to have intersected a CO2 saturation change. The validated results provide confidence that the SASSA method can be used independently as a CO2 saturation monitoring technique. As data are collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The critical components of the SASSA workflow for a successful application of the method are the following: Iterative survey design with information about CO2 injection activities from the oilfield operator. A detailed CO2 injection plan is the key driver to select the strategic monitoring location of the SASSA sensors. After this information is incorporated in the initial distribution of sources and receivers in the study area, high-resolution satellite images are used to identify ground locations not affected by cultural noise sources, such as power lines, pipelines/flow lines, or roadways. In the next iteration of the survey design, a scouting trip to the study area is needed to understand more details of the noise sources identified in the previous step and the intensity of the field activities that can also generate noise during the monitoring. Integrating the information from the scouting trip into the survey design to select the optimum source and receiver locations is the final step. Noise attenuation. The variety of noise types during seismic monitoring of an oil field is enormous. Tailored noise characterization and processing at a node-by-node level can enhance the performance and sensitivity of the SASSA technique. Future advancements that could improve the efficiency and application of the SASSA technology include: Gaining a better understanding of the noise field produced by the seismic source to aid the choice of receiver location. Surface noise from the source can overwhelm the small signal changes due to CO2 that the SASSA method measures. Improved data-processing workflow to automatically analyze and adapt to dynamic noise conditions associated with industrial settings. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE- FE0024233.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2024

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗