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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

A probabilistic assessment of geomechanical reservoir integrity during CO 2 sequestration in flood basalt formations

Recent field experiments in Iceland and Washington State (USA) show that basalt formations may be favorable targets for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) because CO 2 mineralization reactions proceed rapidly. These results imply that there is tremendous opportunity for implementing CCS in large igneous provinces. However, the magnitude of this opportunity comprises commensurate levels of uncertainty because basalt reservoirs are characterized by highly heterogeneous, fracture-controlled hydraulic properties. This geologic uncertainty is propagated as parametric uncertainty in quantitative risk models, thus limiting the efficacy of models to predict CCS performance attributes, such as reservoir integrity and storage potential. To overcome these limitations, here we present a stochastic approach for quantifying the geomechanical performance attributes of CCS operations in a highly heterogeneous basalt reservoir. We utilize geostatistical reservoir characterization to develop an ensemble of equally probable permeability distributions in a flood basalt reservoir with characteristics of the Wallula Basalt Pilot Project. We then simulate industrial-scale CO 2 injections within the ensemble and calculate the mean and variance of fluid pressure over a 1-year injection period. These calculations are combined with the state of stress in southeast Washington State to constrain the spatial extent at which shear failure, fracture initiation, and borehole breakdown may occur. Results from this study show that (i) permeability uncertainty alone causes injection pressure to vary over 25 MPa, (ii) shear failure is likely to occur at 7 times greater distances from the injection than the CO 2 migrates, and (iii) joint initiation pressures are localized within the volume comprising the CO 2 plume.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergent quantum mechanics at the boundary of a local classical lattice model

We formulate a model in which quantum mechanics emerges from classical mechanics. Given a local Hamiltonian H acting on n qubits, we define a local classical model with an additional spatial dimension whose boundary dynamics is approximately—but to arbitrary precision—described by Schrödinger's equation and H. The bulk consists of a lattice of classical bits that propagate towards the boundary through a circuit of stochastic matrices. The bits reaching the boundary are governed by a probability distribution whose deviation from the uniform distribution can be interpreted as the quantum-mechanical wave function. Bell nonlocality is achieved because information can move through the bulk much faster than the boundary speed of light. Finally, we analytically estimate how much the model deviates from quantum mechanics, and we validate these estimates using computer simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bidding strategy for microgrid in day-ahead market based on hybrid stochastic/robust optimization

In this paper, we propose an optimal bidding strategy in the day-ahead market of a microgrid consisting of intermittent distributed generation (DG), storage, dispatchable DG and price responsive loads. The microgrid coordinates the energy consumption or production of its components and trades electricity in both the day-ahead and real-time markets to minimize its operating cost as a single entity. The bidding problem is challenging due to a variety of uncertainties, including power output of intermittent DG, load variation, day-ahead and real-time market prices. A hybrid stochastic/robust optimization model is proposed to minimize the expected net cost, i.e., expected total cost of operation minus total benefit of demand. This formulation can be solved by mixed integer linear programming. The uncertain output of intermittent DG and day-ahead market price are modeled via scenarios based on forecast results, while a robust optimization is proposed to limit the unbalanced power in real-time market taking account of the uncertainty of real-time market price. Numerical simulations on a microgrid consisting of a wind turbine, a PV panel, a fuel cell, a micro-turbine, a diesel generator, a battery and a responsive load show the advantage of stochastic optimization in addition to robust optimization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Representation of Hyporheic Exchange in Models for Reactive Transport in Stream and River Corridors

Efforts to include more detailed representations of biogeochemical processes in basin-scale water quality simulation tools face the challenge of how to tractably represent mass exchange between the flowing channels of streams and rivers and biogeochemical hotspots in the hyporheic zones. Multiscale models that use relatively coarse representations of the channel network with subgrid models for mass exchange and reactions in the hyporheic zone have started to emerge to address that challenge. Two such multiscale models are considered here, one based on a stochastic Lagrangian travel time representation of advective pumping and one on multirate diffusive exchange. The two models are formally equivalent to well-established integrodifferential representations for transport of non-reacting tracers in steady stream flow, which have been very successful in reproducing stream tracer tests. Despite that equivalence, the two models are based on very different model structures and produce significantly different results in reactive transport. In a simple denitrification example, denitrification is two to three times greater for the advection-based model because the multirate diffusive model has direct connections between the stream channel and transient storage zones and an assumption of mixing in the transient storage zones that prevent oxygen levels from dropping to the point where denitrification can progress uninhibited. By contrast, the advection-based model produces distinct redox zonation, allowing for denitrification to proceed uninhibited on part of the hyporheic flowpaths. These results demonstrate that conservative tracer tests alone are inadequate for constraining representation of mass transfer in models for reactive transport in streams and rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE ASTEROID BELT AS A RELIC FROM A CHAOTIC EARLY SOLAR SYSTEM

The orbital structure of the asteroid belt holds a record of the solar system’s dynamical history. The current belt only contains ∼10{sup −3} Earth masses yet the asteroids’ orbits are dynamically excited, with a large spread in eccentricity and inclination. In the context of models of terrestrial planet formation, the belt may have been excited by Jupiter’s orbital migration. The terrestrial planets can also be reproduced without invoking a migrating Jupiter; however, as it requires a severe mass deficit beyond Earth’s orbit, this model systematically under-excites the asteroid belt. Here we show that the orbits of the asteroids may have been excited to their current state if Jupiter’s and Saturn’s early orbits were chaotic. Stochastic variations in the gas giants’ orbits cause resonances to continually jump across the main belt and excite the asteroids’ orbits on a timescale of tens of millions of years. While hydrodynamical simulations show that the gas giants were likely in mean motion resonance at the end of the gaseous disk phase, small perturbations could have driven them into a chaotic but stable state. The gas giants’ current orbits were achieved later, during an instability in the outer solar system. Although it is well known that the present-day solar system exhibits chaotic behavior, our results suggest that the early solar system may also have been chaotic.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stellar Mass Calibrations for Local Low-mass Galaxies

The stellar masses of galaxies are measured from integrated light via several methods—however, few of these methods were designed for low-mass (M ⋆ ≲ 10 8 M ⊙ ) “dwarf” galaxies, whose properties (e.g., stochastic star formation, low metallicity) pose unique challenges for estimating stellar masses. In this work, we quantify the precision and accuracy at which stellar masses of low-mass galaxies can be recovered using UV/optical/IR photometry. We use mock observations of 469 low-mass galaxies from a variety of models, including both semi-empirical models (GRUMPY and UniverseMachine-SAGA) and cosmological baryonic zoom-in simulations (MARVELous Dwarfs and FIRE-2), to test literature color–M ⋆ /L relations and multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) mass estimators. We identify a list of “best practices” for measuring stellar masses of low-mass galaxies from integrated photometry. We find that literature color–M ⋆ /L relations are often unable to capture the bursty star formation histories (SFHs) of low-mass galaxies, and we develop an updated prescription for stellar mass based on g − r color that is better able to recover stellar masses for the bursty low-mass galaxies in our sample (with ∼0.1 dex precision). SED fitting can also precisely recover stellar masses of low-mass galaxies, but this requires thoughtful choices about the form of the assumed SFH: Parametric SFHs can underestimate stellar mass by as much as ∼0.4 dex, while nonparametric SFHs recover true stellar masses with insignificant offset (−0.03 ± 0.11 dex). Finally, we also caution that noninformative (wide) dust attenuation priors may introduce M ⋆ uncertainties of up to ∼0.6 dex.

de los Reyes, Mithi A. C. [Amherst College, MA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2015

The effect of non-uniform mass loading on the linear, temporal development of particle-laden shear layers

The effect of non-uniformity in bulk particle mass loading on the linear development of a particle-laden shear layer is analyzed by means of a stochastic Eulerian-Eulerian model. From the set of governing equations of the two-fluid model, a modified Rayleigh equation is derived that governs the linear growth of a spatially periodic disturbance. Eigenvalues for this Rayleigh equation are determined numerically using proper conditions at the co-flowing gas and particle interface locations. For the first time, it is shown that non-uniform loading of small-inertia particles (Stokes number (St) <0.2) may destabilize the inviscid mixing layer development as compared to the pure-gas flow. The destabilization is triggered by an energy transfer rate that globally flows from the particle phase to the gas phase. For intermediate St (1 < St < 10), a maximum stabilizing effect is computed, while at larger St, two unstable modes may coexist. The growth rate computations from linear stability analysis are verified numerically through simulations based on an Eulerian-Lagrangian (EL) model based on the inviscid Euler equations and a point particle model. The growth rates found in numerical experiments using the EL method are in very good agreement with growth rates from the linear stability analysis and validate the destabilizing effect induced by the presence of particles with low St.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coupled Geomechanical Modeling to Assess Cap Rock Integrity and Mechanical Fault Stability: Application to Farnsworth Field Unit Project

Abstract The SWP project is located in a mature waterflood undergoing conversion to CO2-WAG operations in the Farnsworth, Texas, USA. Anthropogenic CO2 is sourced from a fertilizer and an ethanol plant. This work utilizes Farnsworth’s full-field, history-matched, compositional hydrodynamic coupled geomechanical model for assessing the impact of stress changes observed through the history matched field life. Production and injection induced stress changes, fault stability and caprock integrity investigations are performed to project the potential for fault reactivation and the loss of caprock integrity under shear failure. A static mechanical earth model (MEM) was constructed for use in transient coupled geomechanical model based on the existing Southwest Regional Partnership (SWP) geological model. The static MEM inherits the stratigraphic and structural features of the geologic model and incorporates additional overburden, underburden, and sideburden formations required to impose mechanical boundary conditions. Mechanical properties were distributed in the 3D MEM through integration of geophysical logs and 3-dimensional seismic elastic inversion properties using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic interpolation methods. These data are further enhanced by lab derived strength and failure criteria for the caprock interval. Additionally, interpreted faults and other geological features were included as part of the static structural framework to fully represent subsurface hydraulic and mechanical systems and appropriately integrate heterogeneity. Two-way coupling of hydrodynamic flow and geomechanical simulations incorporates the Kozeny-Carman relationship for updating permeability and is history matched through primary, secondary (waterflooding) and tertiary (CO2 WAG) recovery periods before performing a twenty year forecast. Two-way simulations are performed to understand the effective stress perturbations imposed by field operations: water injection and the more recent implementation of WAG. Evaluation of Mohr circles with liquid production and field pressure charts as well as slip tendency and distance to failure metrics indicate that neither our faults or cap rock are critically stressed. This paper presents the results of the Farnsworth initial attempts to integrate the seismic driven 3D MEM into coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical history match simulation workflow.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2015

Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modelling

In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for microgrid. Electric power supply in microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Due to the fluctuation of solar and wind plants' output, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both power plants. On the other hand, with the growing trend of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PHEV), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. Not only the charging loads from PHEVs, but also the discharging output via Vehicle to Grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all the micro energy sources in microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in microgrid considering conventional, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in modern microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Runaway electron deconfinement in SPARC and DIII-D by a passive 3D coil

The operation of a 3D coil—passively driven by the current quench (CQ) loop voltage—for the deconfinement of runaway electrons (REs) is modeled for disruption scenarios in the SPARC and DIII-D tokamaks. Nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling is carried out with the NIMROD code including time-dependent magnetic field boundary conditions to simulate the effect of the coil. Further modeling in some cases uses the ASCOT5 code to calculate advection and diffusion coefficients for REs based on the NIMROD-calculated fields, and the DREAM code to compute the runaway evolution in the presence of these transport coefficients. Compared with similar modeling in Tinguely et al (2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 124003), considerably more conservative assumptions are made with the ASCOT5 results, zeroing low levels of transport, particularly in regions in which closed flux surfaces have reformed. Of three coil geometries considered in SPARC, only the n = 1 coil is found to have sufficient resonant components to suppress the runaway current growth. Without the new conservative transport assumptions, full suppression of the RE current is maintained when the thermal quench MHD is included in the simulation or when the RE current is limited to 250kA, but when transport in closed flux regions is fully suppressed, these scenarios allow RE beams on the order of 1–2 MA to appear. Additional modeling is performed to consider the effects of the close ideal wall. In DIII-D, the CQ is modeled for both limited and diverted equilibrium shapes. In the limited shape, the onset of stochasticity is found to be insensitive to the coil current amplitude and governed largely by the evolution of the safety-factor profile. In both devices, prediction of the q-profile evolution is seen to be critical to predicting the later time effects of the coil.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergency Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency storage assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency storage assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗
DOE OSTI2014

Mathematical and Numerical Analyses of Peridynamics for Multiscale Materials Modeling

The rational design of materials, the development of accurate and efficient material simulation algorithms, and the determination of the response of materials to environments and loads occurring in practice all require an understanding of mechanics at disparate spatial and temporal scales. The project addresses mathematical and numerical analyses for material problems for which relevant scales range from those usually treated by molecular dynamics all the way up to those most often treated by classical elasticity. The prevalent approach towards developing a multiscale material model couples two or more well known models, e.g., molecular dynamics and classical elasticity, each of which is useful at a different scale, creating a multiscale multi-model. However, the challenges behind such a coupling are formidable and largely arise because the atomistic and continuum models employ nonlocal and local models of force, respectively. The project focuses on a multiscale analysis of the peridynamics materials model. Peridynamics can be used as a transition between molecular dynamics and classical elasticity so that the difficulties encountered when directly coupling those two models are mitigated. In addition, in some situations, peridynamics can be used all by itself as a material model that accurately and efficiently captures the behavior of materials over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Peridynamics is well suited to these purposes because it employs a nonlocal model of force, analogous to that of molecular dynamics; furthermore, at sufficiently large length scales and assuming smooth deformation, peridynamics can be approximated by classical elasticity. The project will extend the emerging mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics. One goal is to develop a peridynamics-enabled multiscale multi-model that potentially provides a new and more extensive mathematical basis for coupling classical elasticity and molecular dynamics, thus enabling next generation atomistic-to-continuum multiscale simulations. In addition, a rigorous studyof nite element discretizations of peridynamics will be considered. Using the fact that peridynamics is spatially derivative free, we will also characterize the space of admissible peridynamic solutions and carry out systematic analyses of the models, in particular rigorously showing how peridynamics encompasses fracture and other failure phenomena. Additional aspects of the project include the mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics applied to stochastic peridynamics models. In summary, the project will make feasible mathematically consistent multiscale models for the analysis and design of advanced materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology: Development of Beta 1.0 MASTODON Toolset

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States, but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the plant elements and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms. Development of the next generation tools and methods for external events PRA is ongoing under the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway. The RISMC toolkit development centers on integration of the tools and methods under a common framework, MOOSE. These tools and methods make use of existing and newly developed tools and methods, coupled with the experience and data gained in the past decades, to define and analyze more realistic risk assessment models. Specific focus in this report is on the capability to model seismic risk using advanced SPRA methods. Over the last year, significant capability has been added to Mastodon to simulate 3-D wave passage effects through nonlinear soil. Verification has demonstrated the capability of Mastodon to model wave passage effects in 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D. Methods have been developed to incorporate probabilistic floor response capabilities. Additional capability will be added to Mastodon over the next year to implement a robust gapping and sliding element for cyclic shaking, web-based verification and user manuals, stochastic finite elements, and frequency independent damping. Verification of added capabilities has occured in parallel with code writing activities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Adaptive multi-index collocation for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis

In this paper, we present an adaptive algorithm to construct response surface approximations of high-fidelity models using a hierarchy of lower fidelity models. Our algorithm is based on multiindex stochastic collocation and automatically balances physical discretization error and response surface error to construct an approximation of model outputs. This surrogate can be used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) at a fraction of the cost of a purely high-fidelity approach. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on a canonical test problem from the UQ literature and a complex multi-physics model that simulates the performance of an integrated nozzle for an unmanned aerospace vehicle. We find that when the input-output response is sufficiently smooth our algorithm produces approximations that can be up to orders of magnitude more accurate than single fidelity approximations for a fixed computational budget.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Attitude control of Mariner Jupiter-Saturn spacecraft

A major challenge of the Mariner Jupiter-Saturn '77 spacecraft was devising a suboptimal attitude controller that could meet the demanding mission requirements. The challenge was met by implementing a discrete stochastic controller for a specially designed onboard computer. The paper describes the design and operation of the controller, based on a simple model of spacecraft dynamics. Two types of cruising modes are considered: inertial cruise, where spacecraft attitude is determined from gyro position outputs, and celestial cruise, where position information is obtained from sun sensors and a star tracker. These two cruise modes under conditions of disturbances were simulated on computer, and the results showed that the controller maintained the spacecraft attitude with low rates. An appendix gives details on the single-step predictor.

Bahrami, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The stochastic evolution of asteroidal regoliths and the origin of brecciated and gas-rich meteorites

A model is constructed which views regolith evolution on asteroids as a stochastic process. Average values are shown to be poor descriptors of regolith depth. The utility of the average depth is not significantly increased by avoiding large craters or thick ejecta deposits, a procedure adopted in previous regolith studies. The statistical uncertainty associated with regolith depth severely limits the power of regolith models in predicting parent-body size for brecciated meteorites. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to simulate the random walks and corresponding charged-particle irradiation histories of grains in regoliths. On rocky asteroids, only about 20 percent of the grains was exposed to solar cosmic ray ions. Results based on present-day conditions in the asteroid belt agree well with irradiation features observed in gas-rich meteorites. An origin during epochs of early solar system evolution is not required.

Housen, K. R.↗