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DOE OSTI2025

Pavement condition and climatic data in southeast Texas: A dataset for evaluating flood impacts on pavement performance

Effective pavement maintenance is essential for economic stability, optimal network performance, and roadway safety. Achieving this requires thorough evaluation of pavement conditions, including structural integrity, surface roughness, and distress characteristics. Pavement performance indicators play a critical role in influencing vehicle safety and ride quality. Recent advances have emphasized the use of data-driven modeling to anticipate pavement behavior, with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and refining Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) strategies through accurate condition assessment. A foundational requirement for these modeling efforts is the availability of standardized, high-quality datasets that can support robust and reproducible infrastructure analysis. This data article presents a comprehensive dataset assembled to facilitate pavement performance prediction, with a geographic focus on Southeast Texas, particularly the flood-vulnerable area of Beaumont. The dataset encompasses pavement and traffic attributes, meteorological records, flood simulation outputs, ground deformation measurements, and topographic indices, enabling detailed examination of both load-associated and non-load-associated degradation mechanisms. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS Pro, Microsoft Excel, and Python to ensure consistency and usability in data-driven modeling applications, including machine learning workflows. Key contributions of this dataset include its utility in analyzing the climatic and environmental factors affecting pavement conditions, identifying critical predictive features, and enabling in-depth correlation analysis across diverse variables. By filling existing gaps in input variable selection resources, this dataset supports the development of predictive tools for estimating future maintenance demand and enhancing the resilience of pavement networks in flood-impacted areas. The resource highlights the importance of standardized datasets for advancing pavement management practices and provides a robust foundation for ongoing infrastructure performance modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Equipping Neural Network Surrogates with Uncertainty for Propagation in Physical Systems

Coarse-grained or filtered models typically rely on closure models to account for unresolved scales. For instance, large eddy simulation for modeling turbulent fluid flows explicitly resolves the largest scales, but requires modeling closure terms to account for the sub-filter scales. With the vast amount of data available from high-fidelity simulations, there are unique opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques to formulate expressive and flexible closure models. Despite their flexibility, data-driven models struggle in domain shift settings, i.e. when deployed in configurations not captured in the training dataset. In particular, the efficacy of neural network surrogates is difficult to assess a priori due to the deterministic, point-estimate nature of predictions. In high-consequence applications, such models require reliable uncertainty estimates in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. To quantify uncertainties in both regimes, we employ Bayesian neural networks which are able to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We will discuss challenges associated with the training and evaluation of these networks. Furthermore, we will discuss uncertainty embedding strategies to enable efficient sampling and propagation of uncertainty through high-fidelity simulations.

Bayesian neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

From disorganized data to emergent dynamic models: Questionnaires to partial differential equations

Starting with sets of disorganized observations of spatially varying and temporally evolving systems, obtained at different (also disorganized) sets of parameters, we demonstrate the data-driven derivation of parameter dependent, evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) models capable of generating the data. This tensor type of data is reminiscent of shuffled (multidimensional) puzzle tiles. The independent variables for the evolution equations (their “space” and “time”) as well as their effective parameters are all emergent , i.e. determined in a data-driven way from our disorganized observations of behavior in them. We use a diffusion map based questionnaire approach to build a smooth parametrization of our emergent space/time/parameter space for the data. This approach iteratively processes the data by successively observing them on the “space,” the “time” and the “parameter” axes of a tensor. Once the data become organized, we use machine learning (here, neural networks) to approximate the operators governing the evolution equations in this emergent space. Our illustrative examples are based (i) on a simple advection–diffusion model; (ii) on a previously developed vertex-plus-signaling model of Drosophila embryonic development; and (iii) on two complex dynamic network models (one neuronal and one coupled oscillator model) for which no obvious smooth embedding geometry is known a priori. This allows us to discuss features of the process like symmetry breaking, translational invariance, and autonomousness of the emergent PDE model, as well as its interpretability.

generative models↗

DOE OSTI2026

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

During this project, we experimentally investigated the hydrodynamics and performance of a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC).We looked at how flap buoyancy and driveline losses (primarily in the form of stiction) affected the dynamics and performance of the device. In addition, we assessed the influence of flap profile (rounded vs. square edges) on OSWEC hydrodynamics. Through this, we were able to develop a deeper understanding of OSWEC performance and provide guidance on strategies to counteract artifacts that may be present in laboratory models, but are absent in field-scale devices. To do this, we tested a laboratory-scale OSWEC in the Sea Wave Environmental Lab (SWEL) wave tank at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We ran several types of experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics and performance of the device. Overall, we achieved the overall goal of experimentally investigating the hydrodynamics and performance of this device. We discovered important and unexpected trends in performance, and collected time-resolved data to help us further investigate the underlying hydrodynamics responsible for these trends. In addition, we are currently using the time-resolved data from these experiments to build data-driven models of the dynamics, which can in turn be used to inform data-driven model predictive control of this device and address this objective in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scalable Data-Intensive Geocomputation: A Design for Real-Time Continental Flood Inundation Mapping

The convergence of data-intensive and extreme-scale computing enables an integrated software and data ecosystem for scientific discovery. Developments in this realm will fuel transformative research in data-driven interdisciplinary domains. Geocomputation provides computing paradigms in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for interactive computing of geographic data, processes, models, and maps. Because GIS is data-driven, the computational scalability of a geocomputation workflow is directly related to the scale of the GIS data layers, their resolution and extent, as well as the velocity of the geo-located data streams to be processed. Unique in high user interactivity and low end-to-end latency requirements, geocomputation applications will dramatically benefit from the convergence of high-end data analytics (HDA) and high-performance computing (HPC). The application level challenge, however, is to identify and eliminate computational bottlenecks that arise along a geocomputation workflow. Indeed, poor scalability at any of the workflow components is detrimental to the entire end-to-end pipeline. Here, we study a large geocomputation use case in flood inundation mapping that handles multiple national-scale geospatial datasets and targets low end-to-end latency. We discuss benefits and challenges for harnessing both HDA and HPC for data-intensive geospatial data processing and intensive numerical modeling of geographic processes. We propose an HDA+HPC geocomputation architecture design that couples HDA (e.g., Spark)-based spatial data handling and HPC-based parallel data modeling. Key techniques for coupling HDA and HPC to bridge the two different software stacks are reviewed and discussed.

Liu, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Satellite Data Alone for Mapping Global Thermal Anisotropy

Mapping thermal anisotropy across global lands is critical for advancing a wide range of Earth science studies. However, a comprehensive understanding of global thermal anisotropy intensity (TAI) and its governing factors remains missing. We introduce a novel data-driven methodology to quantify global TAI exclusively using multi-angle MODIS land surface temperature time series observations. Our analysis reveals distinct seasonal and diurnal TAI patterns, with global mean summertime TAI exceeding 2.9°C. Furthermore, we identify strong associations between TAI and key surface and atmospheric parameters, such as leaf area index and downward shortwave radiation. Our findings advocate for a paradigm shift from model-based to data-driven approaches in correcting thermal anisotropy, thereby addressing a critical bottleneck in Earth observation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Modeling of Three-Phase Grid-Supporting Inverters for Dynamic Studies

Grid technologies connected by power electronic converter (PEC) interfaces continually implement grid support functions mandated by grid codes and standards. The transition to converter-based generation demands precise PEC models to assess system dynamics, which have been previously overlooked in conventional power systems. This study proposes a hybrid method for analyzing grid-connected three-phase PEC dynamics with the IEEE standard 1547-2018 Volt-VAr mode that combines physics and data-driven techniques. The physics model reflects the PEC’s internal behavior, whereas the data-driven modeling technique evaluates the grid-supporting capabilities of the smart PEC. The system identification approach is used to generate dynamic PEC models based on changing grid voltage and measured current injected into the grid by the PEC. In the Volt-VAr support mode, a detailed topological model including switches is utilized to compare the goodness-of-fit of the extracted hybrid dynamic model. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PEC model in the Volt-VAr mode accurately matches the dynamics with the topological model.

Subedi, Sunil↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble Learning Based Convex Approximation of Three-Phase Power Flow

Though the convex optimization has been widely used in power systems, it still cannot guarantee to yield a tight (accurate) solution to some problems. To mitigate this issue, this paper proposes an ensemble learning based convex approximation for alternating current (AC) power flow equations that differs from the existing convex relaxations. The proposed approach is based on three-phase quadratic power flow equations in rectangular coordinates. To develop this data-driven convex approximation of power flows, the polynomial regression (PR) is first deployed as a basic learner to fit convex relationships between the independent and dependent variables. Then, ensemble learning algorithms such as gradient boosting (GB) and bagging are introduced to combine learners to boost model performance. Based on the learned convex approximation of power flow, optimal power flow (OPF) is formulated as a convex quadratic programming problem. The simulation results on IEEE standard cases of both balanced and unbalanced systems show that, in the context of solving OPF, the proposed data-driven convex approximation outperforms the conventional semi-definite programming (SDP) relaxation in both accuracy and computational efficiency, especially in the cases that the conventional SDP relaxation fails

Convex approximation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Visualization and Analysis for Near-Real-Time Decision Making in Distributed Workflows

Data driven science is becoming increasingly more common, complex, and is placing tremendous stresses on visualization and analysis frameworks. Data sources producing 10GB per second (and more) are becoming increasingly commonplace in both simulation, sensor and experimental sciences. These data sources, which are often distributed around the world, must be analyzed by teams of scientists that are also distributed. Enabling scientists to view, query and interact with such large volumes of data in near-real-time requires a rich fusion of visualization and analysis techniques, middleware and workflow systems. Here, this paper discusses initial research into visualization and analysis of distributed data workflows that enables scientists to make near-real-time decisions of large volumes of time varying data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Anomaly Detection for Next-Generation Space Launch Ground Operations

NASA is developing new capabilities that will enable future human exploration missions while reducing mission risk and cost. The Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) project aims to demonstrate the utility of integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) tools in the domain of ground support equipment (GSE) to be used for the next generation launch vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the utility of IVHM tools for GSE, FDIR aims to mature promising tools for use on future missions and document the level of effort - and hence cost - required to implement an application with each selected tool. One of the FDIR capabilities is anomaly detection, i.e., detecting off-nominal behavior. The tool we selected for this task uses a data-driven approach. Unlike rule-based and model-based systems that require manual extraction of system knowledge, data-driven systems take a radically different approach to reasoning. At the basic level, they start with data that represent nominal functioning of the system and automatically learn expected system behavior. The behavior is encoded in a knowledge base that represents "in-family" system operations. During real-time system monitoring or during post-flight analysis, incoming data is compared to that nominal system operating behavior knowledge base; a distance representing deviation from nominal is computed, providing a measure of how far "out of family" current behavior is. We describe the selected tool for FDIR anomaly detection - Inductive Monitoring System (IMS), how it fits into the FDIR architecture, the operations concept for the GSE anomaly monitoring, and some preliminary results of applying IMS to a Space Shuttle GSE anomaly.

Spirkovska, Lilly↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Diverse Data, User Driven Services and the Power of Giovanni at NASA GES DISC

This presentation provides an overview of remote sensing and model data at GES (Goddard Earth Sciences) DISC (Data and Information Services Center); Overview of data services at GES DISC (Registration with NASA data system; Searching and downloading data); Giovanni (Geospatial Interactive Online VisualizationANd aNalysis Infrastructure): online data exploration tool; and NASA Earth Data and Information System.

model↗

DOE OSTI2018

Energy impact evaluation for eco-routing and charging of autonomous electric vehicle fleet: Ambient temperature consideration

This paper studies the heterogeneous energy cost and charging demand impact of autonomous electric vehicle(EV) fleet under different ambient temperature. A data-driven method is introduced to formulate a two-dimensional grid stochastic energy consumption model for electric vehicles. This model aids in analyzing EV energy cost and describing uncertainties under variable traffic and ambient temperature conditions. According to this energy consumption model, an optimal eco-routing and charging decision making framework is designed for autonomous EV fleet. This optimization framework can improve the capability of autonomous EV's energy management and help to find their minimum energy cost routes with consideration of charging demand and travel time requirements. Based on these promising models and technologies, comprehensive case studies are performed on a data-driven simulated transportation network in New York City. Detailed results show us the heterogeneous energy impact and charging demand under different ambient temperature. By giving the same travel demand and charging station information, there may be more than 20% difference of overall energy cost and 60% difference of charging demand in a specific charging station between low and high ambient temperature of a month. All these studies will help to construct sustainable infrastructure for autonomous electric vehicle fleet management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression for extracting chemical reaction mechanisms from data

A data-driven computational method is introduced to extract chemical reaction mechanisms from time series chemical concentration data. It is realized through the use of dynamic symbolic regression in which a sparse analytical form for a dynamical system is discoverable from the underlying data. We specifically develop the stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression (SISR) method to address a standing challenge in complex chemical reaction networks: given a time-series dataset of concentrations of several components, what is the mechanism and the associated rate constants? SISR finds the optimal mechanism, kinetic equations and rate constants by combining differential optimization with a genetic optimization approach that searches a symbolic space of possible reaction mechanisms. Use of SISR in several paradigmatic examples spanning linear and nonlinear reaction schemes results in excellent agreement between true and predicted mechanisms, including when the method is applied to noisy data. The advantages of a stoichiometrically-informed approach such as SISR to address reaction discovery is illustrated through comparison with the use of generic state-of-the-art data-driven approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonperturbative Guiding Center Model for Magnetized Plasmas

Perturbative guiding center theory adequately describes the slow drift motion of charged particles in the strongly magnetized regime characteristic of thermal particle populations in various magnetic fusion devices. However, it breaks down for particles with large-enough energy. Here, we report on a data-driven method for learning a nonperturbative guiding center model from full-orbit particle simulation data. We show the data-driven model significantly outperforms traditional asymptotic theory in magnetization regimes appropriate for fusion-born α particles in stellarators, thus opening the door to nonperturbative guiding center calculations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Automation of Data Collection Methods for Online Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants

Maintenance activities in the United States nuclear power industry are mainly centered on preventive and corrective maintenance. Predictive maintenance, which is a variable time basis maintenance strategy that is dependent on the condition of the equipment, is less utilized but potentially more effective. In the current maintenance practices, the nuclear power plants rely on manual processes to supply information to a human decision making process. The plants have several processes that generate information that is not typically used beyond the intended target for collecting that information. This information is a source of data that is manually collected by labor intensive tasks. The data is therefore expensive to collect, yet limited in use. The industry has realized the opportunity present in reducing the labor intensive tasks by automating them and increasing the uses of the data collected by either developing advanced predictive maintenance methods using data-driven decision making that could span from trending to machine learning and artificial intelligence. This shift in maintenance strategy may result in high cost saving impact. In addition to reducing labor requirements and frequency of maintenance activities, this shift in strategy will reduce the materials portion of the operations and maintenance cost as well. The aim of this specific effort is to focus on the automation of data collection process. It is part of a series of planned efforts to target multiple elements of migrating the current preventive maintenance approach in nuclear power plants to a data-driven approach. These elements include data collection, management, analysis, visualization, in addition to value analysis and change enabling. The other five elements of migration were not considered because they are planned to be explicitly studied in multiple parallel efforts. Challenges including regulations requirements or limitations are planned in a future effort that focuses on change enabling. The risk and benefit/cost of the approach shift is planned in another effort targeted towards value. The storage, communication, computational power, data architecture, and protection are part of the information infrastructure and are planned in dedicated data management effort. The best means to present the data for assisted human decision making is planned in a data visualization effort. The data interpretation and patterns recognition for machine decision making is planned through multiple efforts in data analytics over the following years. This work identified seventeen data sources collection methods in nuclear power plants that could be automated for an integrated data platform that enables comprehensive and informed decision making. For each of the identified seventeen data sources, the base, modern, and state of the art states were described. The current state of data collection used by most utilities was identified as the "base state". The current achievable state was identified as the "modern state", a state that has either been achieved by at least some US utilities or in other industries. The future state that requires research and development to reach was identified as the "state of the art" state. The described states used an out-of-the-box thinking approach. This effort found that there is a hug potential for task automation and data fidelity improvements by evolving the current industry data collection methods. The majority of the processes analyzed were found to be manual and labor intensive and fell in the base state. As a result, the modern state often targeted reducing the manual logging efforts by using electronic and semi-intelligent means or complementing the work with sensors and mobile or fixed technologies that can reduce the demand of labor activities. The state of the art state involved applications advanced methods of data correlation, data mining, and machine learning along with increasing the spatial distribution and fidelity of data, coupling multiple data sources, and enabling the use of sophisticated mobile devices and machine comprehension methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Unintended Consequences of Focusing on Human Error (And How You Can Help)

The literature on human performance is rich with findings of cognitive failures and methods to identify, label, and measure them. In many real-world contexts, however, outcomes are driven far more by successful than failed cognition. Designers of systems intended for human use, in an effort to be “data driven,” rely upon findings from the cognitive performance literature to inform their system designs. When most available data are about human error, data-driven designs focus on the human primarily as a source of failure. Designs intended to support or replace humans often fail to acknowledge or understand the capabilities that humans routinely contribute to successful performance. Consequently, designs intended to “protect” the system from “error-prone” humans can design-out the capability for the human to effectively intervene or adapt. The development of paradigms to study successful human performance represents a significant and largely untapped opportunity for research in cognition.

Jon Holbrook↗