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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

load forecast↗

Mechanical Loads on Spent Nuclear Fuel in the General 30 cm Package Drop Scenario

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) research program is guided by the high-level goal of closing prioritized knowledge gaps related to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation, which are summarized by Saltzstein et al. (2020). One of the high-priority knowledge gaps is the identification and quantification of mechanical loads that are expected to affect SNF during normal conditions of transportation and storage to inform the range of physical SNF test programs. This report uses modeling and analysis methods to estimate the mechanical loads on spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the general 30 cm package drop scenario. The drop scenario assumes impact limiters are in place in the transportation configuration and the impact surface is perfectly rigid. The goal of this analysis is to consider the universe of potential mechanical loading conditions that can happen to SNF and present the results in a manner that is useful for materials testing, decision making, and regulatory rule making purposes. This study uses validated finite element models and methods to perform a broad parametric study of key variables that can affect the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical package free drop scenario. Physical drop test data from a cask and fuel assembly drop test campaign is the basis for model validation. Additionally, the results of the parametric study are used to inform a damage model, which uses multiple nonlinear regression to estimate the relationships between input variables and output response. The parametric finite element analyses consider thousands of input variable combinations, while the damage model estimates millions of combinations. The breadth of this study provides confidence that the potential range of mechanical loads that SNF might experience during the general 30 cm package drop scenario are characterized well enough to consider this knowledge gap closed. While this report documents the overall peak values calculated in this study, the 95 th percentile values, the histograms, and the observed trends are equally important. This study covered a large range of SNF temperatures, room temperature to 300°C, and burnups, 10 GWd/MTU to 62 GWd/MTU. Each temperature and burnup combination has a different cladding yield strain, so it is more meaningful to summarize the calculated cladding strain response as its factor of safety, which is defined relative to the yield strain. The factor of safety is calculated as the yield strain divided by the peak cladding strain. A factor of safety greater than unity indicates that the cladding remains below yield, whereas a value less than unity is indicative of plastic deformation. In all cases of this study a safety factor over 1.0 was calculated, although in the most limiting case at 300°C the safety factor was only 1.01, which suggests that yielding could occur when additional loads like rod internal pressure are included. When the temperature is restricted to 200°C the limiting safety factor increases to 1.28, which has significant margin to accommodate internal pressure and potential local cladding defects that could cause a local stress concentration. An important trend in the calculated fuel rod mechanical loads is that the 2 nd highest loaded fuel rod in an assembly tends to be significantly lower than the highest loaded rod. The implication is that even if one rod in an assembly experiences a failure the loads would have to be significantly higher to cause two or more rods to fail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Method Improvements in Thermal Analysis of Mach 10 Leading Edges

Several improvements have recently been made in the thermal analysis methods for leading edges of a hypersonic vehicle. The leading edges of this vehicle undergo exceptionally high heat loads that incorporate extreme spatial gradients as well as severe transients. Due to the varying flight conditions, complex geometry, and need for thermal loads at many points along the trajectory, full computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the aeroheating; loads is not feasible. Thus, engineering methods must be used to determine the aeroheating on the vehicle surfaces, and that must be utilized in the thermal analysis. Over the last year, the thermal analysis of a hypersonic vehicle has been enhanced in several ways. Two different engineering codes are used to predict aeroheating loads: one over the curve near the stagnation point, and the other on flat surfaces downstream of the leading edge. These two are matched together at the intersection point using a method that allows closer approximation of CFD results. User-developed FORTRAN, which is part of the thermal solver PATRAN Thermal, is used to accomplish this. The customizable FORTRAN code also allows use of many different time- and space-dependent factors, interpolation of the heat load in time and space, and inclusion of both highly swept and unswept grid structures. This FORTRAN is available to other PATRAN users who may want to accomplish a similar objective in analysis. Flux, rather than convective coefficient, is used to define heat loads, which allows more accurate analysis as well as better application of margins. Improvements have also been made in more efficient utilization of imported CAD geometry, by creating faces on solids to facilitate load application.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

Effect of High-Speed Rotation on High-Temperature Superconducting Coils for High Efficiency Megawatt Motor

The use of a superconducting rotor in the High Efficiency Megawatt Motor (HEMM) comes with a number of challenges. The HEMM’s rotor must be designed so that the superconducting coil can tolerate the forces it will encounter during operation. These forces introduce considerable risk to the design of the HEMM. Because this risk cannot be adequately addressed through refined analysis, a set of experiments was deemed necessary to demonstrate that the HEMM’s superconducting coils can survive the stresses imparted by the centrifugal forces acting on the coil during full-speed operation of the machine. These experiments required spin testing a full-scale HEMM coil on a representative rotor structure at room temperature and sequentially higher rotation speeds and measuring the superconductivity response of the coil in liquid nitrogen (LN2) before and after each spin test. Tests were carried out to the full centripetal loading of a recent HEMM design. According to finite element analysis, this load produced stress components in the coil that exceed their design limit by a factor of 1 to 7.4. Although not yet confirmed, the current HEMM design is expected to produce even smaller stresses in the coil due to a 20 percent reduction in the coil’s mass and an increased volume of structural material. The only degradation of the coil that occurred during this testing resulted from a test rig failure and from the voltage taps, which are not part of the final coil design.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Comparison of Two Load Prediction Methods for Strain-Gage Balances

Data from a high-capacity semi-span balance is used to perform a detailed comparison of the load prediction accuracy of two strain-gage balance load prediction methods. Both methods independently obtain their load prediction equations from multivariate least squares fits of balance calibration data. The first method is called Non-Iterative Method. This approach directly uses regression models of the individual load components of a balance for the load prediction. The second method is called Iterative Method. This alternate approach uses a load iteration equation for the load prediction that is constructed from the regression models of the gage outputs of the balance. Basic characteristics of the two methods are reviewed. Afterwards, both methods are applied to calibration and check load data of the chosen balance. Finally, selected analysis results are compared. These comparisons confirmed that the load prediction accuracy of the two methods is the same for all practical purposes.

wind tunnel test↗

Mixed mode stress-intensity-factors in mode-3 loaded middle crack tension specimen

A three dimensional stress analysis of a middle-crack tension specimen subjected to mode-3 type loading was performed using fracture mechanics based finite element code FRAC3D. Three-dimensional stress intensity factors were calculated for a range of specimen thicknesses that represent the structures used in aerospace and nuclear industries. Calculated SIF for very thick specimen (thickness-to-crack length b/a greater than or equal to 30) agreed very well with the antiplane solution in the literature. The K(sub II) stress field exists near the intersection of the crack front and free surface in a boundary-layer region covers the complete thickness of the plate and K(sub II) dominates all through the thickness. For very thin plates (b/a is less than .1), the average K(sub II) is larger than K(sub III) (about 25% for b/a = 0.1).

Shivakumar, Kunigal N.↗

Modeling and Simulation for Exercise Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System Design

The microgravity environment that crew members experience on orbit presents a well-known health challenge, particularly when it comes to loss of muscle and bone mass. To counteract these negative effects, exercise countermeasures play a critical role in the daily routine of the crew on the International Space Station (ISS). To help inform requirements for upcoming exploration missions such as the Gateway Program, a new device, called the European Enhanced Exploration Exercise Device (E4D), is being built by the European Space Agency through their contractor, the Danish Aerospace Company. The E4D is being demonstrated on the ISS and is unique from other current exercise devices in that it provides four separate modalities in a single device: resistive, cycle ergometry, seated aerobic rowing, and rope pulling. To support the integration of E4D on ISS, a passive Vibration Isolation and Stabilization (VIS) system was required by NASA, and this responsibility was given to the Johnson Space Center. This paper describes the end-to-end process of modeling, simulation, and analysis used to inform the mechanical design of the VIS system. The process begins with the collection of representative exerciser motion capture (MoCap) through ground-based testing with the developmental E4D in both the Prototype Immersive Technology (PIT) Laboratory and the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility at the Johnson Space Center. These collected MoCap data are processed through human biomechanics modeling to create forcing functions as input to a multibody dynamics simulation of the combined E4D/VIS system, with numerous resulting outputs. These outputs include microgravity accelerations, overall system displacements, internal and transmitted loads, as well as collisions. Microgravity accelerations are compared for compliance against ISS requirements while displacements are used for sway space determinations on the design and volumetric constraints within the targeted module. Internal loads are supplied to the supporting stress analysis teams and external loads for structural loads and dynamics teams, both at NASA and ESA. Finally, contact and clearance analysis is performed using the simulation to eliminate potential design issues. To ensure that the elements of the multibody simulation were verified and validated, correlation against multiple VIS related ground hardware testbeds was performed and characterized. In addition to the isolation part of the VIS problem, stabilization is also key to the integrated performance and evaluation. Due to the difficulty in defining ISS requirements in this area, the stability of the exerciser was inspected via analysis. Loss of balance was defined analytically as occurring when the resultant force vector acting on the exerciser lies outside the base of support of the feet. Both the VIS and E4D teams have recently gone through their Critical Design Reviews (CDRs) and the iterative model-based approach has been integral to inform mechanical design, particularly in the case of the VIS. This same end-to-end approach is now being applied for the Gateway Program, where an Exploration Exercise Device (EED) derived from the E4D and notional VIS for the device are under concept development.

Countermeasures↗

Mars Exploration Rover airbag landing loads testing and analsysis

This paper presents a summary of the testing and analysis used to quantify the expected airbag landing loads for the Mars Exploration Rovers. The airbag drop test setup, lander instrumentation, and the test data reduction method are discussed in order to provide an understanding of the empirical loads. A set of limiting cases that bound the empirical data are developed for use in finite element modeling of the lander and rover models.

modeling↗

Analysis of the Learjet 35/36 Wing and Correlation with Experimental Results

Two NASTRAN models of the Gates Learjet Corporation Model 35/36 Wing were developed. The models and the problems encountered in their development are discussed. A skin buckling analysis used for the ultimate loading conditions is presented. A discussion of the static tests and the correlation of the static test with the NASTRAN results and the results of a supplementary semimonocoque beam analysis are also included.

Abla, M. H.↗

Biaxial load effects in fracture mechanics

It is found that the standard expressions for elastic stress and displacement in the crack-tip region (i.e., the so-called singular solution) cannot be considered to be approximations that are acceptable in a completely general sense. This conclusion is best illustrated by the instance of a biaxially loaded infinite sheet with a flat horizontal central crack, where the effect of load applied parallel to the plane of the crack appears entirely in the second terms of the series representations for local stresses and displacements. An elastoplastic finite-element analysis of the same biaxially loaded finite specimen geometry shows that the global energy release rate, the J-integral, the plastic stress and strain intensity factors (in the sense of Hilton and Hutchinson), and the size of the crack border region plastic yield, all have pronounced biaxial load dependence.

Liebowitz, H.↗

Effects of Accident Thermal Loading on In-Plane Shear Behavior of Steel-Plate Composite Walls

Structural walls in safety-related nuclear facilities are required to be designed for seismic and accident thermal (due to postulated high-energy pipe break events) loading combination. Current U.S. and international codes provide limited guidance for analysis and design of walls for this loading combination. This paper describes the experimental results and observations from tests conducted on a laboratory-scale (1:4 to 1:5) test unit representing steel-plate composite (SC) walls subjected to combined in-plane (seismic) and accident thermal loading. The test unit was subjected to surface temperatures of up to 450°F in combination with cyclic in-plane loading. Results of similar experiments recently conducted in Japan are also summarized (with surface temperatures up to 570°F). Surface heating combined with the low thermal conductivity and high specific heat of concrete resulted in nonlinear thermal gradients through the thickness of the specimens. These nonlinear thermal gradients and the associated self- or internal restraint led to extensive concrete cracking. This concrete cracking reduced the initial and secant stiffness of the specimens. The initial stiffness of the heated specimens reduced to 30 to 40% of the initial stiffness of the control (unheated) specimen. The secant stiffness of the heated specimens reduced up to 50% of the secant stiffness of the control (unheated) specimen. However, the in-plane shear strength of the heated SC specimens was still approximately 10 to 30% greater than the nominal in-plane shear strength calculated, for the limit state of steel plate von Mises yielding, using AISC N690 equations and measured material properties. Evaluation of the experimental results and observations suggests that the in-plane shear strength of SC walls subjected to typical accident surface temperatures (up to 570°F) can be estimated conservatively using the current provisions of AISC N690. The stiffness for accident thermal loading combinations can be considered to reduce from cracked composite stiffness at ambient temperature to fully cracked—that is, steel-only stiffness as the surface temperature increases up to typical accident value.

Construction & Building Technology↗

Optimum structural design based on reliability and proof-load testing

Proof-load test eliminates structures with strength less than the proof load and improves the reliability value in analysis. It truncates the distribution function of strength at the proof load, thereby alleviating verification of a fitted distribution function at the lower tail portion where data are usually nonexistent.

Shinozuka, M.↗

Assessment of Survey Results from Advanced Reactor Industry Domain Experts on Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis Software Verification and Validation

The seismic load case has a significant impact on the design and cost of nuclear power plants. Given the need to substantially reduce cost, advanced reactor designers are looking to leverage numerical tools that enable seismic analysis of an integrated vessel/support/structure/soil system. Modern nonlinear analysis tools provide a solution, capturing dynamic coupling between components (including soil-structure interaction (SSI)) concurrent with nonlinear behavior in one or more parts of the system. Although these methods have a rich history of technical development and implementation, software quality assurance (SQA) following nuclear industry standards remains a significant burden for those wishing to adopt such methods for advanced reactor design and licensing. To reduce the SQA burden, this project will develop the guidance for SQA verification and validation (V&V) of coupled nonlinear SSI analysis tools, to include a test matrix of software features and test problems to support commercial grade dedication (CGD). The guidance is intended to be technology-neutral: supporting designers of all advanced reactors. To maximize the value of the project to reactor designers, the project team performed focused surveys of and interviews with advanced reactor designers. Additionally, the project surveyed members of the broader industry involved in reactor design and licensing. The aggregated industry feedback consists of written survey responses, live polling responses, focused interviews, and informal feedback provided after outreach presentations, collectively referred to as “survey results”. Herein, the survey results are reported, reviewed, and assessed to inform follow-on project activities. The survey results confirmed the familiarity of the industry with the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis. They also affirm the project need based upon the expressed intent to (1) incorporate nonlinear features and (2) pursue the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis to reduce seismic demands and construction costs. All reactor designers indicated their intent to incorporate two or more nonlinear features, and all reactor designer respondents opined that the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis would allow for the optimization of the reactor design and construction. However, the programmatic challenges, whether real or perceived, present a significant barrier to reactor designers. The barrier most commonly identified by the reactor designer population was regulatory risk, with 70% citing this as a reason not to pursue the approach. The perceived regulatory risk identified by the reactor designers underscores the importance of regulator engagement and dialogue in this project. Additionally, half of the reactor designers identified cost and lack of guidance as a deterrent. The survey results also provide insights to tailor specific aspects of the guidance document and test matrix. The project plans to prepare both a formal referenceable guidance document and a collaborative, web-based test matrix and problem set. The project will focus on more complete test problem definitions for the prioritized nonlinear features over shallower problem descriptions for a larger set of features. The nonlinearities prioritized as high based upon survey feedback include fluid-structure interaction and seismic isolation and energy dissipation devices. The nonlinearities prioritized as intermediate include nonlinear geomaterials, nonlinear concrete, nonlinear steel, and interface/contact nonlinearity. Deep embedment and the associated nonlinear phenomena are assigned the lowest priority based upon survey feedback.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Crack-opening displacements in center-crack, compact, and crack-line wedge-loaded specimens

The theoretical crack-opening displacements for center-crack, compact, and crack-line wedge-loaded specimens (reported in the ASTM Proposed Recommended Practice for R-Curve Determination (1974)) disagree with experimental measurements in the literature. The disagreement is a result of using approximate specimen configurations and load representation to obtain the theoretical displacements. An improved method of boundary collocation is presented which was used to obtain the theoretical displacements in these three specimen types; the actual specimen configurations and more accurate load representation were used. In the analysis of crack-opening displacements in the compact and crack-line wedge-loaded specimens, the effects of the pin-loaded holes were also included. The theoretical calculations agree with the experimental measurements reported in the literature. Also examined are accurate polynomial expressions for crack-opening displacements in both compact and crack-line wedge-loaded specimens.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Composite Structure Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Aircraft Fuselage Concepts

NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project and the Boeing Company are collabrating to advance the unitized damage arresting composite airframe technology with application to the Hybrid-Wing-Body (HWB) aircraft. The testing of a HWB fuselage section with Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) construction is presently being conducted at NASA Langley. Based on lessons learned from previous HWB structural design studies, improved finite-element models (FEM) of the HWB multi-bay and bulkhead assembly are developed to evaluate the performance of the PRSEUS construction. In order to assess the comparative weight reduction benefits of the PRSEUS technology, conventional cylindrical skin-stringer-frame models of a cylindrical and a double-bubble section fuselage concepts are developed. Stress analysis with design cabin-pressure load and scenario based case studies are conducted for design improvement in each case. Alternate analysis with stitched composite hat-stringers and C-frames are also presented, in addition to the foam-core sandwich frame and pultruded rod-stringer construction. The FEM structural stress, strain and weights are computed and compared for relative weight/strength benefit assessment. The structural analysis and specific weight comparison of these stitched composite advanced aircraft fuselage concepts demonstrated that the pressurized HWB fuselage section assembly can be structurally as efficient as the conventional cylindrical fuselage section with composite stringer-frame and PRSEUS construction, and significantly better than the conventional aluminum construction and the double-bubble section concept.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

Morphological and electrical properties of epoxy-based composites reinforced with exfoliated graphite

An experimental study has been carried out to prepare and characterize epoxy/amine-based composites filled with different percentages of partially exfoliated graphite (i.e. pEG) particles having an exfoliation degree of 56% in order to analyze the effect of the filler amounts on the electrical properties of the resulting nanocomposites. Moreover, in order to fully investigate the direct relationship between the physical properties of the employed filler and the results of the electrical characterization, a structural and morphological characterization of the pEG samples is carried out by means of various type of analysis such as X-ray diffraction patterns, micro-Raman and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) images. The DC electrical characterization reveals a percolation thresholds (EPT) that falls in the range [2–3] wt% and an electrical conductivity of about 0.66 S/m at the highest filler loading (6.5 wt%). From the analysis of the percolative curve it is possible to derive the percolation law parameters and in particular the critical exponent t, whose value (i.e. 1.2) reflects an effective 2D organization of the percolating structure consistent with the type of filler used (2-dimensional). Finally, an extensive analysis concerning the electrical properties in the frequency domain has been carried out in order to evaluate the effectiveness of pEG-loaded composites in terms of electromagnetic interference compatibility (EMC) and their applicability as radar absorbers materials (RAMs).

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Ring Pull Strain Analysis

Ring Pull Strain Analysis (RPSA) is a framework for analysis of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) data of gaugeless ring pull testing. It is meant for analysis of rings cut from tube cross sections and pulled in a displacement-controlled tensile test. This code takes load frame data, images take during testing, and csv files from the DIC analysis of those images and allows the user to analyze and plot data from the test. Some important features of the software include getting the strain values as a function of radial distance and angle, plotting of the strain around the ring, and stress-strain analysis of the load frame data. Additional capability is included with Ring Pull Coating Analysis (RPCA, also part of the software). Additional images are taken of samples with an outer coating and are used to correlate failure of the coating with strain values measured with DIC.

Beck, Peter↗

Towards a Probabilistic Preliminary Design Criterion for Buckling Critical Composite Shells

A probability-based analysis method for predicting buckling loads of compression-loaded laminated-composite shells is presented, and its potential as a basis for a new shell-stability design criterion is demonstrated and discussed. In particular, a database containing information about specimen geometry, material properties, and measured initial geometric imperfections for a selected group of laminated-composite cylindrical shells is used to calculate new buckling-load "knockdown factors". These knockdown factors are shown to be substantially improved, and hence much less conservative than the corresponding deterministic knockdown factors that are presently used by industry. The probability integral associated with the analysis is evaluated by using two methods; that is, by using the exact Monte Carlo method and by using an approximate First-Order Second- Moment method. A comparison of the results from these two methods indicates that the First-Order Second-Moment method yields results that are conservative for the shells considered. Furthermore, the results show that the improved, reliability-based knockdown factor presented always yields a safe estimate of the buckling load for the shells examined.

Arbocz, Johann↗