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NASA NTRS2014

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Co-Simulation Model for Optimal Wind-Hydro Coordination Using Wind Farm Control Dynamics

The growing share of Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRES) in power systems presents challenges for regula- tors, grid operators and energy producers. The VRES’ operation has limited flexibility in their operations, as they are highly dependent on ambient environments. To address these challenges, decision-makers must consider multiple objectives, among these are revenue, power system services and mechanical load on wind turbines. Coordinated operation of power plants and different wind farm control strategies are examples of measures that can benefit these objectives. This study proposes a Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to simulate the optimum operation of wind and hydropower plants that share limited transmission capacity. Further, wind farm control dynamics are included to obtain realistic output power and accumulated damage. From this, a case study based on a relevant location in Norway is presented to analyze the improved effect of wind- hydro coordination and wind farm control in achieving the objectives of accumulated wind turbine damage and total revenue of the hybrid power system. In addition, the study considers the potential advantages of adding a variable-speed pump to the hydropower plant. The results demonstrate that by considering multiple objectives in the optimization, one may achieve better overall performance of the objectives. By utilizing the flexibility of hydro storage, the decision maker may adjust to obtain the most desired outcome. Moreover, the added flexibility of utilizing a pump for hydro storage shows great improvements for the combined revenue of the power plants and reduced curtailment of the wind farm. However, less impact is observed from using a variable speed pump compared to a fixed speed pump.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nested ocean models: Work in progress

The ongoing work of combining three existing software programs into a nested grid oceanography model is detailed. The HYPER domain decomposition program, the SPEM ocean modeling program, and a quasi-geostrophic model written in England are being combined into a general ocean modeling facility. This facility will be used to test the viability and the capability of two-way nested grids in the North Atlantic.

Perkins, A. Louise↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analysis and documentation of QCSEE (Quiet Clean Short-haul Experimental Engine) over-the-wing exhaust system development

A static scale model test program was conducted in the static test area of the NASA-Langley 9.14- by 18.29 m(30- by 60-ft) Full-Scale Wind Tunnel Facility to develop an over-the-wing (OTW) nozzle and reverser configuration for the Quiet Clean Short-Haul Experimental Engine (QCSEE). Three nozzles and one basic reverser configuration were tested over the QCSEE takeoff and approach power nozzle pressure ratio range between 1.1 and 1.3. The models were scaled to 8.53% of QCSEE engine size and tested behind two 13.97-cm (5.5-in.) diameter tip-turbine-driven fan simulators coupled in tandem. An OTW nozzle and reverser configuration was identified which satisfies the QCSEE experimental engine requirements in terms of nozzle cycle area variation capability and reverse thrust level, and provides good jet flow spreading over a wing upper surface for achievement of high propulsive lift performance.

Ammer, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing design and dispatch of a renewable energy system

Renewable energy technologies are becoming increasingly important due to their cost-competitiveness, and because of enhanced climate concerns. We demonstrate the capabilities of an integer-programming optimization model that minimizes capital (investment) and operational costs, and utility charges, while adhering to system sizing constraints, demand requirements, and interoperability characteristics of the systems chosen. Furthermore, the model recommends an optimally sized mix of renewable energy, conventional generation, and energy storage technologies, while simultaneously optimizing the corresponding dispatch strategy. Our case studies explore several venues, i.e., a small campus and a local hospital, with complex utility rate tariffs, multi-technology integration opportunities, and incentives for renewable power production. Using an optimization model, versus applying rules of thumb, can produce millions of dollars in savings over a 25-year time horizon and result in thousands of kilowatts of installed renewable energy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1996

Velocity Measurements Near the Empennage of a SmallScale Helicopter Model

A test program was conducted in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to measure the flow near the empennage of a small-scale powered helicopter model with an operating tail fan. Three-component velocity profiles were measured with Laser Velocimetry (LV) one chord forward of the horizontal tail for four advance ratios to evaluate the effect of the rotor wake impingement on the horizontal tail angle of attack. These velocity data indicate the horizontal tail can experience unsteady downwash angle variations of over 30 degrees due to the rotor wake influence. The horizontal tail is most affected by the rotor wake above advance ratios of 0.10. Velocity measurements of the flow on the inlet side of the fan were made for a low-speed flight condition using both conventional LV techniques and a promising, non-intrusive, global, three-component velocity measurement technique called Doppler Global Velocimetry (DGV). The velocity data show an accelerated flow near the fan duct, and vorticity calculations track the passage of main rotor wake vortices through the measurement plane. DGV shows promise as an evolving tool for rotor flowfield diagnostics.

Gorton, Susan Althoff↗

NASA NTRS1975

A preliminary study of air-pollution measurement by active remote-sensing techniques

Air pollutants are identified, and the needs for their measurement from satellites and aircraft are discussed. An assessment is made of the properties of these pollutants and of the normal atmosphere, including interactions with light of various wavelengths and the resulting effects on transmission and scattering of optical signals. The possible methods for active remote measurement are described; the relative performance capabilities of double-ended and single-ended systems are compared qualitatively; and the capabilities of the several single-ended or backscattering techniques are compared quantitatively. The differential-absorption lidar (DIAL) technique is shown to be superior to the other backscattering techniques. The lidar system parameters and their relationships to the environmental factors and the properties of pollutants are examined in detail. A computer program that models both the atmosphere (including pollutants) and the lidar system is described. The performance capabilities of present and future lidar components are assessed, and projections are made of prospective measurement capabilities for future lidar systems. Following a discussion of some important operational factors that affect both the design and measurement capabilities of airborne and satellite-based lidar systems, the extensive analytical results obtained through more than 1000 individual cases analyzed with the aid of the computer program are summarized and discussed. The conclusions are presented. Recommendations are also made for additional studies to investigate cases that could not be explored adequately during this study.

Wright, M. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bridging Place-Based Astrobiology Education with Genomics, Including Descriptions of Three Novel Bacterial Species Isolated from Mars Analog Sites of Cultural Relevance

Democratizing genomic data science, including bioinformatics, can diversify the STEM workforce and may, in turn, bring new perspectives into the space sciences. In this respect, the development of education and research programs that bridge genome science with “place” and world-views specific to a given region are valuable for Indigenous students and educators. Through a multi-institutional collaboration, we developed an ongoing education program and model that includes Illumina and Oxford Nanopore sequencing, free bioinformatic platforms, and teacher training workshops to address our research and education goals through a place-based science education lens. High school students and researchers cultivated, sequenced, assembled, and annotated the genomes of 13 bacteria from Mars analog sites with cultural relevance, 10 of which were novel species. Students, teachers, and community members assisted with the discovery of new, potentially chemolithotrophic bacteria relevant to astrobiology. This joint education-research program also led to the discovery of species from Mars analog sites capable of producing N-acyl homoserine lactones, which are quorum-sensing molecules used in bacterial communication. Whole genome sequencing was completed in high school classrooms, and connected students to funded space research, increased research output, and provided culturally relevant, place-based science education, with participants naming three novel species described here. Students at St. Andrew's School (Honolulu, Hawai‘i) proposed the name Bradyrhizobium prioritasuperba for the type strain, BL16A T , of the new species (DSM 112479 T = NCTC 14602 T ). The nonprofit organization Kauluakalana proposed the name Brenneria ulupoensis for the type strain, K61 T , of the new species (DSM 116657 T = LMG = 33184 T ), and Hawai‘i Baptist Academy students proposed the name Paraflavitalea speifideiaquila for the type strain, BL16E T , of the new species (DSM 112478 T = NCTC 14603 T ).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

A comprehensive analytical model of rotorcraft aerodynamics and dynamics. Part 3: Program manual

The computer program for a comprehensive analytical model of rotorcraft aerodynamics and dynamics is described. This analysis is designed to calculate rotor performance, loads, and noise; the helicopter vibration and gust response; the flight dynamics and handling qualities; and the system aeroelastic stability. The analysis is a combination of structural, inertial, and aerodynamic models that is applicable to a wide range of problems and a wide class of vehicles. The analysis is intended for use in the design, testing, and evaluation of rotors and rotorcraft and to be a basis for further development of rotary wing theories.

Johnson, W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Nonequilibrium radiation during re-entry at 10 km/s

The direct simulation Monte Carlo method, including a real air model with thermal radiation, is applied to the flows associated with the two sets of measurements that are directly relevant to the projected aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicle. The first is a shock tube measurement of the radiation from a 10 km/s shock wave in air that was made at AVCO in 1962. The second is the flight data that was obtained from the Project Fire re-entry test vehicles in 1964. The calculations for both cases were made with a program that models the one-dimensional flow along a stagnation streamline. The shock standoff distance for the Fire vehicle was obtained from the theoretical studies that were associated with its launch. The simulation employed a partly phenomenological model for the nonequilibrium radiation. It was found that the results from the calculation were consistent with the measured radiation in each case, and also with the convective heat transfer data for the Fire vehicle. The uncertainties associated with the spectral absorptance and recombination probability at the surface appear to be as serious as those associated with the reaction rates.

Bird, G. A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Preliminary Modeling to Support the TREAT Hodoscope System for Fuel Motion Monitoring

Fuel motion is monitored in real time at the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) using a direct-viewing hodoscope that monitors fast neutrons emitted from test fuel undergoing fission during transients. The hodoscope system is now being refurbished, after over twenty years, to once again support research and development activities examining the survival and failure modes of advanced nuclear reactor fuel systems under accident conditions. An im-portant part of this activity is the development of high-fidelity modeling tools to predict the hodoscope's response to different fuel systems, in different test vehicles, throughout different transient cycles. Initial work has involved the collection of archival data related to how the hodoscope currently at TREAT was manufactured and installed, and the use of this data to create a preliminary radiation transport model using MCNP6. This model is now undergoing refinement to improve its fidelity and to permit its integration with other tools under development to model TREAT transients. The model will be used to study how fast-neutrons measured in the hodoscope's detectors relate to the fission of nuclear material in a test vehicle as a function of location within the vehicle and reactor power. The goal is to develop a time-dependent coupling factor that will relate the measured data to the fuel mass present within each pixel of the hodoscope's field of view. This paper will present the current status of the TREAT hodoscope refurbishment program and modeling activities related to interpreting hodoscope data and inferring fuel motion during transients.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1988

Appendices to the model description document for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system

A Model Description Document for the Emulation Simulation Computer Model was already published. The model consisted of a detailed model (emulation) of a SAWD CO2 removal subsystem which operated with much less detailed (simulation) models of a cabin, crew, and condensing and sensible heat exchangers. The purpose was to explore the utility of such an emulation simulation combination in the design, development, and test of a piece of ARS hardware, SAWD. Extensions to this original effort are presented. The first extension is an update of the model to reflect changes in the SAWD control logic which resulted from test. Also, slight changes were also made to the SAWD model to permit restarting and to improve the iteration technique. The second extension is the development of simulation models for more pieces of air and water processing equipment. Models are presented for: EDC, Molecular Sieve, Bosch, Sabatier, a new condensing heat exchanger, SPE, SFWES, Catalytic Oxidizer, and multifiltration. The third extension is to create two system simulations using these models. The first system presented consists of one air and one water processing system. The second consists of a potential air revitalization system.

Yanosy, James L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Space market model development project

The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

Bishop, Peter C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A parallel hub-and-spoke system for large-scale scenario-based optimization under uncertainty

Practical solution of stochastic programming problems generally requires the use of parallel computing resources. Here, we describe the open source package mpi-sppy, in which efficient and scalable parallelization is a central feature. We report computational experiments that demonstrate the ability to solve very large stochastic programming problems - including mixed-integer variants - in minutes of wall clock time, efficiently leveraging significant parallel computing resources. We report results for the largest publicly available instances of stochastic mixed-integer unit commitment problems, solving to provably tight optimality gaps. In addition, we introduce a novel software architecture that facilitates combinations of methods for accelerating convergence that can be combined in plug-and-play manner. Finally, the mpi-sppy package is written in Python, leverages the widely used Pyomo (http://www.pyomo.org) library for modeling mathematical programs, builds on existing MPI implementations to ensure efficiency and scalability, and is available via http://github.com/Pyomo/mpi-sppy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) Final Campaign Report

The extensive coverage of low clouds over the subtropical eastern oceans greatly impacts the current climate. In addition, the response of low clouds to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols is a major source of uncertainty, which thwarts accurate prediction of future climate change. Low clouds are poorly simulated in climate models, partly due to inadequate long-term simultaneous observations of their macrophysical and microphysical structure, radiative effects, and associated aerosol distribution in regions where their impact is greatest. The thickness and extent of subtropical low clouds is dependent on tight couplings between surface fluxes of heat and moisture, radiative cooling, boundary layer turbulence, and precipitation (much of which evaporates before reaching the ocean surface and is closely connected to the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei). These couplings have been documented as a result of past field programs and model studies. However, extensive research is still required to achieve a quantitative understanding sufficient for developing parameterizations, which adequately predict aerosol indirect effects and low cloud response to climate perturbations. This is especially true of the interactions between clouds, aerosol, and precipitation. These processes take place in an ever-changing synoptic environment that can confound interpretation of short time period observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design of Multi-Stage Solvent Extraction Process for Separation of Rare Earth Elements

Flowsheet design and stage determination for the separation of rare earth elements (REEs) using solvent extraction (SX) is a challenging task because of the chemical similarity of the REEs. Low separation factors between the elements and complex equilibrium chemistry provide unique challenges to designing an efficient flowsheet for the separation of elements. The multi-stage nature of the SX process adds further complexity, making the assessment of products for a proposed design and stage combination difficult. Therefore, to develop a SX flowsheet, it is essential to quantify the performance for various design and separation conditions. This paper attempts to address the challenge by utilizing an equilibrium and process modeling approach. Results from a bench-scale study performed on a 10 g/L rare earth salt mixture were used in studying the extraction/stripping behavior and developing equilibrium models. DEHPA with TBP as a phase modifier was used as an extractant, while hydrochloric acid was utilized as a stripping agent. The results obtained were used in developing extraction/stripping models, which were integrated into a process framework of a SX train in a Matlab/Simulink environment. The models were programmed as a function block routine and used for developing a flowsheet, which was simulated for differing separation and design conditions. To identify optimum stage combinations, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) routine was developed and implemented for each SX train. Recovery and purity of elements of interest were used as objective function criteria. The stage combination leading to the minimization of the objective function was used to identify the optimum stage combination for a series of SX trains to attempt a balance of purity and recovery. The models and optimization method were implemented to separate a feed mixture containing REEs, which indicated that 99.52 and 85.41 percent purity is achievable for Yttrium and Lanthanum separation using 8-12-3 and 10-3-5 stage combination for loading, scrubbing, and striping. The model also indicated difficult separability between neodymium, praseodymium, and cerium.

Srivastava, Vaibhav (ORCID:0000000212645987)↗

NASA NTRS1995

GRO: Black hole models for gamma-ray bursts

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on board the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) has established that the distribution of gamma-ray bursts (GRB's) is isotropic but is bound radially. This finding suggests that the bursts are either cosmological or they originate from an extended Galactic halo. The implied luminosities and the observed variability of the GRB's on time scales as short as one millisecond suggest that they originate from compact objects. We are presently studying black hole models for GRB's. Any such model must produce a non-thermal photon spectrum to agree with the observed properties. For a wide range of burst parameters the assumed bursting source consists of a non-thermal electron-positron-photon plasma of very high density. It seems possible to produce such a plasma in accretion onto black holes. In our on-going work, we are developing the kinetic theory for a non-equilibrium pair plasma. The main new features of our work are as follows: (1) We do not assume the presence of a thermal electron bath. (2) Non-thermal, high-energy pairs are allowed to have an arbitrary concentration and energy distribution. (3) There is no soft photon source in our model; initially all the photons in the plasma are either energetic X-rays or gamma-rays. (4) The initial energy distribution of the pairs as well as photons is arbitrary. (5) We collect the analytical expressions for the kinetic kernels for all relevant processes. And (6) we present a different approach to finding the time-evolution of pair and photon spectra, which is a combination of the kinetic-theory and the non-linear Monte-Carlo schemes. We have developed many Monte-Carlo programs to model various process, to take into account the time evolution, and to incorporate various physical effects which are unique to non-thermal plasmas. The hydrodynamics of fireballs in GRB's was studied before. Applying results from kinetic theory will improve our understanding of these systems.

Ruderman, Malvin↗