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At least 1,495 records · Page 83

Strong temporal variability in methane fluxes from natural gas well pad soils

We measured methane and carbon dioxide fluxes at natural gas well pad soils and undisturbed soils in the Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast regions of the United States, including producing and gas storage wells. We collected both short-term (15 min) and multi-day (between 3 and 8), continuous measurements at 47 well pads and two undisturbed locations. Methane fluxes varied by more than an order of magnitude over periods as short as 30 min (e.g., 19–593 mg m -2 h -1 in one instance), and diurnal and seasonal variability was also significant (e.g., spring-to-fall change from 509 to 14174 mg m -2 h -1 ). We hypothesize that short-term flux variability was caused by pulsed flow of methane during its migration through the subsurface. Barometric pressure and well conditions likely impacted fluxes, but we found only weak evidence for this. Bacterial methanotrophy appeared to impact methane flux magnitude and variability. We injected methane into the subsurface at one well, and we found that, while fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide, and combustible soil gas concentrations, increased in response to the injection, the response was not uniform, and fluxes exhibited high hourly-scale variability, in spite of a constant injection rate. Methane fluxes tended to be higher at well pad soils compared to background soils (often much higher), and fluxes tended to be higher at well pad locations closer to the well head.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It is projected that the greatest warming across sub-Saharan Africa will occur over the Sahel, the monsoon season will become more persistent into late summer and autumn, short rains in the Horn of Africa (HOA) will intensify, and leaf area index will increase across the HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. a multivariate statistical approach, is applied to the model output over sub-Saharan Africa in order to explore the oceanic and terrestrial drivers of regional climate. The models indicate that the study region’s climate variability is dominated by oceanic drivers, with secondary contributions from soil moisture and very modest impacts from vegetation. Overall, the general model consensus of future projections indicates a concerning diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate based on key oceanic and terrestrial predictors and an elevated role of the land surface (associated with soil moisture anomalies) compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low velocity opposed-flow frame spread in a transport-controlled environment DARTFire

The overall objectives of the DARTFire project are to uncover the underlying physics and increase understanding of the mechanisms that cause flames to propagate over solid fuels against a low velocity of oxidizer flow in a low-gravity environment. Specific objectives are (1) to analyze experimentally observed flame shapes, measured gas-phase field variables, spread rates, radiative characteristics, and solid-phase regression rates for comparison with previously developed model prediction capability that will be continually extended, and (2) to investigate the transition from ignition to either flame propagation or extinction in order to determine the characteristics of those environments that lead to flame evolution. To meet the objectives, a series of sounding rocket experiments has been designed to exercise several of the dimensional, controllable variables that affect the flame spread process over PMMA in microgravity, i.e., the opposing flow velocity (1-20 cm/s), the external radiant flux directed to the fuel surface (0-2 W/cm(exp 2)), and the oxygen concentration of the environment (35-70%). Because radiative heat transfer is critical to these microgravity flame spread experiments, radiant heating is imposed, and radiant heat loss will be measured. These are the first attempts at such an experimental control and measurement in microgravity. Other firsts associated with the experiment are (1) the control of the low velocity, opposed flow, which is of the same order as diffusive velocities and Stefan flows; (2) state-of-the-art quantitative flame imaging for species-specific emissions (both infrared and ultraviolet) in addition to novel intensified array imaging to obtain a color image of the very dim, low-gravity flames.

West, Jeff↗

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-Order Shock-Capturing Methods for Modeling Dynamics of the Solar Atmosphere

We use one-dimensional high-order central shock capturing numerical methods to study the response of various model solar atmospheres to forcing at the solar surface. The dynamics of the atmosphere is modeled with the Euler equations in a variable-sized flux tube in the presence of gravity. We study dynamics of the atmosphere suggestive of spicule formation and coronal oscillations. These studies are performed on observationally-derived model atmospheres above the quiet sun and above sunspots. To perform these simulations, we provide a new extension of existing second- and third- order shock-capturing methods to irregular grids. We also solve the problem of numerically maintaining initial hydrostatic balance via the introduction of new variables in the model equations and a careful initialization mechanism. We find several striking results: all model atmospheres respond to a single impulsive perturbation with several strong shock waves consistent with the rebound-shock model. These shock waves lift material and the transition region well into the initial corona, and the sensitivity of this lift to the initial impulse depends non-linearly on the details of the atmosphere model. We also reproduce an observed 3-minute coronal oscillation above sunspots compared to 5-minute oscillations above the quiet sun.

Bryson, Steve↗

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗

Spatial heterogeneity effects on land surface modeling of water and energy partitioning

Abstract. Understanding the influence of land surface heterogeneity on surface water and energy fluxes is crucial for modeling earth system variability and change. This study investigates the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on land surface modeling, including atmospheric forcing (ATM), soil properties (SOIL), land use and land cover (LULC), and topography (TOPO). Our analysis focused on their impacts on the partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff (R), partitioning of net radiation into sensible heat and latent heat, and corresponding water and energy fluxes. An initial set of 16 experiments were performed over the continental US (CONUS) using the E3SM land model (ELMv1) with different combinations of heterogeneous and homogeneous datasets. The Sobol' total and first-order sensitivity indices were utilized to quantify the relative importance of the four heterogeneity sources. Sobol' total sensitivity index measures the total heterogeneity effects induced by a given heterogeneity source, consisting of the contribution from its own heterogeneity (i.e., the first-order index) and its interactions with other heterogeneity sources. ATM and LULC are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning, mainly contributed by their own heterogeneity and slightly contributed by their interactions with other heterogeneity sources. Their heterogeneity effects are complementary, both spatially and temporally. The overall impacts of SOIL and TOPO are negligible, except TOPO dominates the spatial variability of R/P across the transitional climate zone between the arid western and humid eastern CONUS. Accounting for more heterogeneity sources improves the simulated spatial variability of water and energy fluxes when compared with ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. An additional set of 13 experiments identified the most critical components within each heterogeneity source, which are precipitation, temperature, and longwave radiation for ATM, soil texture, and soil color for SOIL and maximum fractional saturated area parameter for TOPO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining AGN UV/Optical Variability beyond the Simple Damped Random Walk

We present damped harmonic oscillator (DHO) light-curve modeling for a sample of 12,714 spectroscopically confirmed quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region. DHO is a second-order continuous-time autoregressive moving-average process, which can be fully described using four independent parameters: a natural oscillation frequency (ω 0 ), a damping ratio (ξ), a characteristic perturbation timescale (τ perturb ), and an amplitude for the perturbing white noise (σ ϵ ). The asymptotic variability amplitude of a DHO process is quantified by σ DHO —a function of ω 0 , ξ, τ perturb , and σ ϵ . We find that both τ perturb and σ ϵ follow different dependencies with rest-frame wavelength (λ RF ) on either side of 2500 Å, whereas σ DHO follows a single power-law relation with λ RF . After correcting for wavelength dependence, σ DHO exhibits anticorrelations with both the Eddington ratio and the black hole mass, while τ perturb —with a typical value of days in the rest frame—shows an anticorrelation with the bolometric luminosity. Modeling active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability as a DHO offers more insight into the workings of accretion disks close to the supermassive black holes at the center of AGN. The newly discovered short-term variability (characterized by τ perturb and σ ϵ ) and its correlation with bolometric luminosity pave the way for new algorithms that will derive fundamental properties (e.g., Eddington ratio) of AGN using photometric data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reversible Heterolytic Cleavage of the H-H Bond by Molybdenum Complexes: Controlling the Dynamics of Exchange Between Proton and Hydride

Controlling the heterolytic cleavage of the H-H bond of dihydrogen is critically important in catalytic hydrogenations and in the catalytic oxidation of H2. We show how the rate of reversible heterolytic cleavage of H2 can be controlled over nearly four orders of magnitude at 25 °C, from 2.1 × 103 s-1 to ≥107 s-1. Bifunctional Mo complexes, [CpMo(CO)(κ3-P2N2)]+ (P2N2 = 1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane with alkyl/aryl groups on N and P), have been developed for heterolytic cleavage of H2 into a proton and a hydride, akin to Frustrated Lewis Pairs. The H-H bond cleavage is enabled by the basic amine in the second coordination sphere. The products of heterolytic cleavage of H2, Mo hydride complexes bearing protonated amines, [CpMo(H)(CO)(P2N2H)]+, were characterized by spectroscopic studies and by X-ray crystallography. Variable temperature 1H, 15N and 2-D 1H-1H ROESY NMR spectra indicated rapid exchange of the proton and hydride. The exchange rates are in the order [CpMo(H)(CO)(PPh2NPh2H)]+ > [CpMo(H)(CO)(PtBu2NPh2H)]+ > [CpMo(H)(CO)(PPh2NBn2H)]+ > [CpMo(H)(CO)(PtBu2NBn2H)]+ > [CpMo(H)(CO)(PtBu2NtBu2H)]+. The pKa values determined in acetonitrile range from 9.3 to 17.7, and show a linear correlation with the logarithm of the exchange rates. Thus the exchange dynamics are controlled through the relative acidity of the [CpMo(H)(CO)(P2N2H)]+ and [CpMo(H2)(CO)(P2N2)]+ isomers, providing a design principle for controlling heterolytic cleavage of H2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simple and Efficient Numerical Evaluation of Near-Hypersingular Integrals

Recently, significant progress has been made in the handling of singular and nearly-singular potential integrals that commonly arise in the Boundary Element Method (BEM). To facilitate object-oriented programming and handling of higher order basis functions, cancellation techniques are favored over techniques involving singularity subtraction. However, gradients of the Newton-type potentials, which produce hypersingular kernels, are also frequently required in BEM formulations. As is the case with the potentials, treatment of the near-hypersingular integrals has proven more challenging than treating the limiting case in which the observation point approaches the surface. Historically, numerical evaluation of these near-hypersingularities has often involved a two-step procedure: a singularity subtraction to reduce the order of the singularity, followed by a boundary contour integral evaluation of the extracted part. Since this evaluation necessarily links basis function, Green s function, and the integration domain (element shape), the approach ill fits object-oriented programming concepts. Thus, there is a need for cancellation-type techniques for efficient numerical evaluation of the gradient of the potential. Progress in the development of efficient cancellation-type procedures for the gradient potentials was recently presented. To the extent possible, a change of variables is chosen such that the Jacobian of the transformation cancels the singularity. However, since the gradient kernel involves singularities of different orders, we also require that the transformation leaves remaining terms that are analytic. The terms "normal" and "tangential" are used herein with reference to the source element. Also, since computational formulations often involve the numerical evaluation of both potentials and their gradients, it is highly desirable that a single integration procedure efficiently handles both.

Fink, Patrick W.↗

Toggling Stereochemical Activity through Interstitial Positioning of Cations between 2D V 2 O 5 Double Layers

The 5/6s 2 lone-pair electrons of p-block cations in their lower oxidation states are a versatile electronic and geometric structure motif that can underpin lattice anharmonicity and often engender electronic and structural instabilities that underpin the function of active elements in nonlinear optics, thermochromics, thermoelectrics, neuromorphic computing, and photocatalysis. In contrast to periodic solids where lone-pair-bearing cations are part of the structural framework, installing lone-pair-bearing cations in the interstitial sites of intercalation hosts provides a means of a systematically modulating electronic structure through the choice of the group and the period of the inserted cation while preserving the overall framework connectivity. The extent of stereochemical activity and the energy positioning of lone-pair-derived mid-gap states depend on the cation identity, stoichiometry, and strength of anion hybridization. V 2 O 5 polymorphs are versatile insertion hosts that can accommodate a broad range of s-, p-, and d-block cations. However, the insertion of lone-pair-bearing cations remains largely underexplored. In this article, we examine the implications of varying the 6s 2 cations situated in interlayer sites between condensed [V 4 O 10 ] n double layers. Systematic modulations of lattice distortions, electronic structure, and magnetic ordering are observed with increasing strength of stereochemical activity from group 12 to group 14 cations. We compare and contrast p-block-layered M x V 2 O 5 (M = Hg, Tl, and Pb) compounds and map the significance of local off-centering arising from the stereochemical activity of lone-pair cations to the emergence of filled antibonding lone-pair 6s 2 –O 2p-hybridized mid-gap states mediated by second-order Jahn–Teller distortions. Crystallographic studies of cation coordination environments and the resulting modulation of V–V interactions have been used in conjunction with variable-energy hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements, first-principles electronic structure calculations, and crystal orbital Hamilton population analyses to decipher the origins of stereochemical activity. Magnetic susceptibility measurements reveal antiferromagnetic signatures for all the three compounds. However, the differences in V–V interactions significantly affect the energy balance of the superexchange interactions, resulting in an ordering temperature of 160 and 260 K for Hg 0.5 V 2 O 5 and δ-Tl 0.5 V 2 O 5 , respectively, as compared to 7 K for δ-Pb 0.5 V 2 O 5 . In δ-Pb 0.5 V 2 O 5 , the strong stereochemical activity of electron lone pairs and the resulting electrostatic repulsions enforce superlattice ordering, which strongly modifies the electronic localization patterns along the [V 4 O 10 ] slabs, resulting in disrupted magnetic ordering and an anomalously low ordering temperature. The results demonstrate a versatile strategy for toggling the stereochemical activity of electron lone pairs to modify the electronic structure near the Fermi level and to mediate superexchange interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A motion-constraint logic for moving-base simulators based on variable filter parameters

A motion-constraint logic for moving-base simulators has been developed that is a modification to the linear second-order filters generally employed in conventional constraints. In the modified constraint logic, the filter parameters are not constant but vary with the instantaneous motion-base position to increase the constraint as the system approaches the positional limits. With the modified constraint logic, accelerations larger than originally expected are limited while conventional linear filters would result in automatic shutdown of the motion base. In addition, the modified washout logic has frequency-response characteristics that are an improvement over conventional linear filters with braking for low-frequency pilot inputs. During simulated landing approaches of an externally blown flap short take-off and landing (STOL) transport using decoupled longitudinal controls, the pilots were unable to detect much difference between the modified constraint logic and the logic based on linear filters with braking.

Miller, G. K., Jr.↗

Obstacles to quantum annealing in a planar embedding of XORSAT

We introduce a planar embedding of the k-regular k-XORSAT problem, in which solutions are encoded in the ground state of a classical statistical mechanics model of reversible logic gates arranged on a square grid and acting on bits that represent the Boolean variables of the problem. The special feature of this embedding is that the resulting model lacks a finite-temperature phase transition, thus bypassing the first-order thermodynamic transition known to occur in the random graph representation of XORSAT. In spite of this attractive feature, the thermal relaxation into the ground state displays remarkably slow glassy behavior. The question addressed in this paper is whether this planar embedding can afford an efficient path to solution of k-regular k-XORSAT via quantum adiabatic annealing. We first show that our model bypasses an avoided level crossing and consequent exponentially small gap in the limit of small transverse fields. We then present quantum Monte Carlo results for our embedding of the k-regular k-XORSAT that strongly support a picture in which second-order and first-order transitions develop at a finite transverse field for k = 2 and k = 3, respectively. Furthermore, this translates into power-law and exponential dependences in the scaling of energy gaps with system size, corresponding to times-to-solution which are, respectively, polynomial and exponential in the number of variables. We conclude that neither classical nor quantum annealing can efficiently solve our reformulation of XORSAT, even though the original problem can be solved in polynomial time by Gaussian elimination.

2-dimensional systems↗

Three-Dimensional Navier-Stokes Method with Two-Equation Turbulence Models for Efficient Numerical Simulation of Hypersonic Flows

A new computational efficient 3-D compressible Reynolds-averaged implicit Navier-Stokes method with advanced two equation turbulence models for high speed flows is presented. All convective terms are modeled using an entropy satisfying higher-order Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme based on implicit upwind flux-difference split approximations and arithmetic averaging procedure of primitive variables. This method combines the best features of data management and computational efficiency of space marching procedures with the generality and stability of time dependent Navier-Stokes procedures to solve flows with mixed supersonic and subsonic zones, including streamwise separated flows. Its robust stability derives from a combination of conservative implicit upwind flux-difference splitting with Roe's property U to provide accurate shock capturing capability that non-conservative schemes do not guarantee, alternating symmetric Gauss-Seidel 'method of planes' relaxation procedure coupled with a three-dimensional two-factor diagonal-dominant approximate factorization scheme, TVD flux limiters of higher-order flux differences satisfying realizability, and well-posed characteristic-based implicit boundary-point a'pproximations consistent with the local characteristics domain of dependence. The efficiency of the method is highly increased with Newton Raphson acceleration which allows convergence in essentially one forward sweep for supersonic flows. The method is verified by comparing with experiment and other Navier-Stokes methods. Here, results of adiabatic and cooled flat plate flows, compression corner flow, and 3-D hypersonic shock-wave/turbulent boundary layer interaction flows are presented. The robust 3-D method achieves a better computational efficiency of at least one order of magnitude over the CNS Navier-Stokes code. It provides cost-effective aerodynamic predictions in agreement with experiment, and the capability of predicting complex flow structures in complex geometries with good accuracy.

Bardina, J. E.↗

The rate of extreme coronal line emitting galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and their relation to tidal disruption events

High-ionization iron coronal lines (CLs) are a rare phenomenon observed in galaxy and quasi-stellar object spectra that are thought to be created by high-energy emission from active galactic nuclei and certain types of transients. In cases known as extreme coronal line emitting galaxies (ECLEs), these CLs are strong and fade away on a time-scale of years. The most likely progenitors of these variable CLs are tidal disruption events (TDEs), which produce sufficient high-energy emission to create and sustain the CLs over these time-scales. To test the possible connection between ECLEs and TDEs, we present the most complete variable ECLE rate calculation to date and compare the results to TDE rates from the literature. To achieve this, we search for ECLEs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We detect sufficiently strong CLs in 16 galaxies, more than doubling the number previously found in SDSS. Using follow-up spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mid-infrared observations, and Liverpool Telescope optical photometry, we find that none of the nine new ECLEs evolve in a manner consistent with that of the five previously discovered variable ECLEs. Using this sample of five variable ECLEs, we calculate the galaxy-normalized rate of variable ECLEs in SDSS to be $R_\mathrm{G}=3.6~^{+2.6}_{-1.8}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+5.1}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-6}~\mathrm{galaxy}^{-1}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. The mass-normalized rate is $R_\mathrm{M}=3.1~^{+2.3}_{-1.5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+4.4}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-17}~\mathrm{M_\odot ^{-1}}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ and the volumetric rate is $R_\mathrm{V}=7~^{+20}_{-5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+10}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-9}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Our rates are one to two orders of magnitude lower than TDE rates from the literature, which suggests that only 10–40 per cent of all TDEs produce variable ECLEs. Additional uncertainties in the rates arising from the structure of the interstellar medium have yet to be included.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

End-to-end Coronagraphic Modeling Including a Low-order Wavefront Sensor

To evaluate space-based coronagraphic techniques, end-to-end modeling is necessary to simulate realistic fields containing speckles caused by wavefront errors. Real systems will suffer from pointing errors and thermal and motioninduced mechanical stresses that introduce time-variable wavefront aberrations that can reduce the field contrast. A loworder wavefront sensor (LOWFS) is needed to measure these changes at a sufficiently high rate to maintain the contrast level during observations. We implement here a LOWFS and corresponding low-order wavefront control subsystem (LOWFCS) in end-to-end models of a space-based coronagraph. Our goal is to be able to accurately duplicate the effect of the LOWFS+LOWFCS without explicitly evaluating the end-to-end model at numerous time steps.

coronagraphs↗

Fusion of Hyperspectral Sounder Products Via Spectral Fingerprinting Methodology

Satellite based measurements of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral radiances in the infrared (IR) region have been in existence for almost two decades and are expected to be continued in the following decades. The data from multiple hyper-spectral IR sounders can therefore be combined to build a long-term data record to further global scale climate trend research. Challenges associated with the fusion of data from different sensors come from the stability and consistency requirement on the climate record. The direct radiance observations from different sounders need to be homogenized by reconciling the differences in calibration, spectral response function (SRF), and spatial-temporal sampling. When geophysical variables derived from radiances measured by different sounders are combined to form long-term climate records, the impacts of any inconsistencies between overlapping measurements on the retrieval must be carefully assessed in order to estimate the uncertainty of the corresponding climate anomalies/trends derived. This paper presents a novel climate fingerprinting methodology and establishes a rigorously-defined inverse relationship that allows us to efficiently evaluate the change in essential climate variables from the change in spectral radiances measured in prescribed spatial and temporal averaging scales. The inverse spectral fingerprinting relationship is constructed based on a unified spectral kernel scheme, providing a direct means for quantifying the potential discontinuity in the derived climate anomalies due to inconsistencies between overlapping measurements. We show in this paper a sample application of using the spectral fingerprinting scheme to derive long-term, global-scale surface temperatures from the Climate Hyperspectral Infrared Radiance Product (CHIRP) and quantify the inter-satellite biases.

Wan Wu↗