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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2017

Variational Integration for Ideal Magnetohydrodynamics and Formation of Current Singularities

Coronal heating has been a long-standing conundrum in solar physics. Parker's conjecture that spontaneous current singularities lead to nanoflares that heat the corona has been controversial. In ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), can genuine current singularities emerge from a smooth 3D line-tied magnetic field? To numerically resolve this issue, the schemes employed must preserve magnetic topology exactly to avoid artificial reconnection in the presence of (nearly) singular current densities. Structure-preserving numerical methods are favorable for mitigating numerical dissipation, and variational integration is a powerful machinery for deriving them. However, successful applications of variational integration to ideal MHD have been scarce. In this thesis, we develop variational integrators for ideal MHD in Lagrangian labeling by discretizing Newcomb's Lagrangian on a moving mesh using discretized exterior calculus. With the built-in frozen-in equation, the schemes are free of artificial reconnection, hence optimal for studying current singularity formation. Using this method, we first study a fundamental prototype problem in 2D, the Hahm-Kulsrud-Taylor (HKT) problem. It considers the effect of boundary perturbations on a 2D plasma magnetized by a sheared field, and its linear solution is singular. We find that with increasing resolution, the nonlinear solution converges to one with a current singularity. The same signature of current singularity is also identified in other 2D cases with more complex magnetic topologies, such as the coalescence instability of magnetic islands. We then extend the HKT problem to 3D line-tied geometry, which models the solar corona by anchoring the field lines in the boundaries. The effect of such geometry is crucial in the controversy over Parker's conjecture. The linear solution, which is singular in 2D, is found to be smooth. However, with finite amplitude, it can become pathological above a critical system length. The nonlinear solution turns out smooth for short systems. Nonetheless, the scaling of peak current density vs. system length suggests that the nonlinear solution may become singular at a finite length. With the results in hand, we cannot confirm or rule out this possibility conclusively, since we cannot obtain solutions with system lengths near the extrapolated critical value.

solar corona↗
DOE OSTI2022

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale simulation of spatially correlated microstructure via a latent space representation

When deformation gradients act on the scale of the microstructure of a part due to geometry and loading, spatial correlations and finite-size effects in simulation cells cannot be neglected. We propose a multiscale method that accounts for these effects using a variational autoencoder to encode the structure–property map of the stochastic volume elements making up the statistical description of the part. In this paradigm the autoencoder can be used to directly encode the microstructure or, alternatively, its latent space can be sampled to provide likely realizations. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method on three examples using the common additively manufactured material AlSi10Mg in: (a) a comparison with direct numerical simulation of the part microstructure, (b) a push forward of microstructural uncertainty to performance quantities of interest, and (c) a simulation of functional gradation of a part with stochastic microstructure.

Elastoplasticity↗
NASA NTRS1991

Spacecraft design optimization using Taguchi analysis

The quality engineering methods of Dr. Genichi Taguchi, employing design of experiments, are important statistical tools for designing high quality systems at reduced cost. The Taguchi method was utilized to study several simultaneous parameter level variations of a lunar aerobrake structure to arrive at the lightest weight configuration. Finite element analysis was used to analyze the unique experimental aerobrake configurations selected by Taguchi method. Important design parameters affecting weight and global buckling were identified and the lowest weight design configuration was selected.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRS1987

Reflectance- and radiance-based methods for the in-flight absolute calibration of multispectral sensors

Variations reported in the in-flight absolute radiometric calibration of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and the Thematic Mapper (TM) on Landsat 4 are reviewed. At short wavelengths these sensors exhibited a gradual reduction in response, while in the midinfrared the TM showed oscillatory variations, according to the results of TM internal calibration. The methodology and results are presented for five reflectance-based calibrations of the Landsat 5 TM at White Sands, NM, in the period July 1984 to November 1985. These show a + or - 2.8 percent standard deviation for the six solar-reflective bands. Analysis and preliminary results of a second, independent calibration method, based on radiance measurements from a helicopter at White Sands, indicate that this is potentially an accurate method for corroborating the results from the reflectance-based method.

Slater, P. N.↗
NASA NTRS1949

Design and performance of family of diffusing scrolls with mixed-flow impeller and vaneless diffuser

A family of diffusing scrolls was designed for use with a mixed-flow impeller and a small-diameter vaneless diffuser. The design theory, intended to maintain a uniform pressure around the scroll inlet, permits determination of the position of scroll cross sections of preassigned area by considering the radial variation in fluid density and the effects of friction along the scroll. Inasmuch as the design method leaves the cross-sectional shape undetermined, the effect of certain variations in scroll shape was investigated by studying scrolls having angles of divergence (of the scroll walls downstream of the entrance section) of 24 degrees, 40 degrees, and 80 degrees. A second 80 degree scroll was of asymmetrical construction and a third was plaster-cast instead of sand-cast. Each scroll was tested as a compressor component at actual impeller tip speeds of 700 to 1300 feet per second from full throttle to surge.

Brown, W Byron↗
NASA NTRS1984

Verification and application of the Iosipescu shear test method

Finite element models were used to study the effects of notch angle variations on the stress state within an Iosipescu shear test speciment. These analytical results were also studied to determine the feasibility of using strain gage rosettes and a modified extensometer to measure shear strains in this test specimen. Analytical results indicate that notch angle variations produced only small differences in simulated shear properties. Both strain gage rosettes and the modified extensometer were shown to be feasible shear strain transducers for the test method. The Iosipoescu shear test fixture was redesigned to incorporate several improvements. These improvements include accommodation of a 50 percent larger specimen for easier measurement of shear train, a clamping mechanism to relax strict tolerances on specimen width, and a self contained alignment tool for use during specimen installation. A set of in-plane and interlaminar shear properties were measured for three graphite fabric/epoxy composites of T300/934 composite material. The three weave patterns were Oxford, 5-harness satin, and 8-harness satin.

Walrath, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Emissions Accounting Methods Can Determine Whether Direct Air Capture with Storage Achieves Net Removal

The voluntary carbon market within the United States has expanded rapidly in recent years and enabled private companies and other organizations to provide revenue streams to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For a CDR technology to participate in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), the emissions associated with constructing and operating the technology must be less than the CO 2 captured from the atmosphere. Assessing the extent to which this is true for direct air capture with storage (DACS), a relatively energy-intensive CDR technology, strongly depends on the accounting method used to assess the emissions intensity of purchased energy. We simulate the hourly weather-dependent operation of sorbent- and solvent-based DACS in California, Louisiana, Texas, and Wyoming, representing a wide range of local weather and electric and natural gas grid compositions. In all cases, the single most important emissions accounting decision is the method used to estimate the emissions intensity of purchased grid electricity, which varies the calculated net removal by −1049% to +108%. All other factors influencing net removal introduce a variation of at most ±14%. No electricity emissions accounting method is universally conservative across all scenarios, and none is objectively more accurate. High-spatiotemporal-resolution, high-quality, publicly available data sets and models for electricity emissions accounting do not currently exist and are urgently needed to enable standardization of emissions accounting methods to more accurately determine the true emissions impacts of DACS and other energy-intensive facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Simultaneous stochastic inversion for geomagnetic main field and secular variation. II - 1820-1980

With the aim of producing readable time-dependent maps of the geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary, the method of simultaneous stochastic inversion for the geomagnetic main field and secular variation, described by Bloxham (1987), was applied to survey data from the period 1820-1980 to yield two time-dependent geomagnetic-field models, one for the period 1900-1980 and the other for 1820-1900. Particular consideration was given to the effect of crustal fields on observations. It was found that the existing methods of accounting for these fields as sources of random noise are inadequate in two circumstances: (1) when sequences of measurements are made at one particular site, and (2) for measurements made at satellite altitude. The present model shows many of the features in the earth's magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary described by Bloxham and Gubbins (1985) and supports many of their earlier conclusions.

Bloxham, Jeremy↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution systems with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution systems. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of PV and load power injections. The sampling-based method approximates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-node distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A universal variational quantum eigensolver for non-Hermitian systems

Abstract Many quantum algorithms are developed to evaluate eigenvalues for Hermitian matrices. However, few practical approach exists for the eigenanalysis of non-Hermintian ones, such as arising from modern power systems. The main difficulty lies in the fact that, as the eigenvector matrix of a general matrix can be non-unitary, solving a general eigenvalue problem is inherently incompatible with existing unitary-gate-based quantum methods. To fill this gap, this paper introduces a Variational Quantum Universal Eigensolver (VQUE), which is deployable on noisy intermediate scale quantum computers. Our new contributions include: (1) The first universal variational quantum algorithm capable of evaluating the eigenvalues of non-Hermitian matrices—Inspired by Schur’s triangularization theory, VQUE unitarizes the eigenvalue problem to a procedure of searching unitary transformation matrices via quantum devices; (2) A Quantum Process Snapshot technique is devised to make VQUE maintain the potential quantum advantage inherited from the original variational quantum eigensolver—With additional $$O(log_{2}{N})$$ O ( l o g 2 N ) quantum gates, this method efficiently identifies whether a unitary operator is triangular with respect to a given basis; (3) Successful deployment and validation of VQUE on a real noisy quantum computer, which demonstrates the algorithm’s feasibility. We also undertake a comprehensive parametric study to validate VQUE’s scalability, generality, and performance in realistic applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental error mitigation using linear rescaling for variational quantum eigensolving with up to 20 qubits

Quantum computers have the potential to help solve a range of physics and chemistry problems, but noise in quantum hardware currently limits our ability to obtain accurate results from the execution of quantum-simulation algorithms. Various methods have been proposed to mitigate the impact of noise on variational algorithms, including several that model the noise as damping expectation values of observables. In this work, we benchmark various methods, including a new method proposed here. Here, we compare their performance in estimating the ground-state energies of several instances of the 1D mixed-field Ising model using the variational-quantum-eigensolver algorithm with up to 20 qubits on two of IBM's quantum computers. We find that several error-mitigation techniques allow us to recover energies to within 10% of the true values for circuits containing up to about 25 ansatz layers, where each layer consists of CNOT gates between all neighboring qubits and Y-rotations on all qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Muon Tomography of Deep Reservoirs

Imaging subsurface geological formations, oil and gas reservoirs, mineral deposits, cavities or magma chambers under active volcanoes has been for many years a major quest of geophysicists and geologists. Since these objects cannot be observed directly, different indirect geophysical methods have been developed. They are all based on variations of certain physical properties of the subsurface that can be detected from the ground surface or from boreholes. Electrical resistivity, seismic wave’s velocities and density are certainly the most used properties. If we look at density, indirect estimates of density distributions are performed currently by seismic reflection methods - since the velocity of seismic waves depend also on density - but they are expensive and discontinuous in time. Direct estimates of density are performed using gravimetric data looking at variations of the gravity field induced by the density variations at depth but this is not sufficiently accurate. A new imaging technique using cosmic-ray muon detectors has emerged during the last decade and muon tomography - or muography - promises to provide, for the first time, a complete and precise image of the density distribution in the subsurface. Further, this novel approach has the potential to become a direct, real-time, and low-cost method for monitoring fluid displacement in subsurface reservoirs.

borehole detector↗
NASA NTRS2021

Refined Mass and Geometric Measurements of the High-mass PSR J0740+6620

We report results from continued timing observations of PSR J0740+6620, a high-mass, 2.8 ms radio pulsar in orbit with a likely ultracool white dwarf companion. Our data set consists of combined pulse arrival-time measurements made with the 100 m Green Bank Telescope and the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment telescope. We explore the significance of timing-based phenomena arising from general relativistic dynamics and variations in pulse dispersion. When using various statistical methods, we find that combining∼1.5 yr of additional, high-cadence timing data with previous measurements confirms and improves on previous estimates of relativistic effects within the PSR J0740+6620 system, with the pulsar mass=-+mM2.08p0.070.07 M (68.3% credibility) determined by the relativistic Shapiro time delay. For the first time, we measure secular variation in the orbital period and argue that this effect arises from apparent acceleration due to significant transverse motion. After incorporating contributions from Galactic differential rotation and off-plane acceleration in the Galactic potential, we obtain a model-dependent distance of=-+d1.140.150.17kpc (68.3% credibility). This improved distance confirms the ultracool nature of the white dwarf companion determined from recent optical observations. We discuss the prospects for future observations with next-generation facilities, which will likely improve the precision on mp for J0740+6620 by an order of magnitude within the next few years

Neutron stars↗
DOE OSTI2019

Iterative Joint Ptychography-Tomography with Total Variation Regularization

In order to determine the 3D structure of a thick sample, researchers have recently combined ptychography (for high resolution) and tomography (for 3D imaging) in a single experiment. 2-step methods are usually adopted for reconstruction, where the ptychography and tomography problems are often solved independently. In this paper, we provide a novel model and ADMM-based algorithm to jointly solve the ptychography-tomography problem iteratively, also employing total variation regularization. The proposed method permits large scan stepsizes for the ptychography experiment, requiring less measurements and being more robust to noise with respect to other strategies, while achieving higher reconstruction quality results.

2-step methods↗