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DOE OSTI2023

Data from: Soil phosphorus drawdown by perennial bioenergy cropping systems in the Midwestern US

We analyzed phosphorus (P) inputs (fertilization and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (harvest and leaching losses) over seven years in three representative biomass crops—switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), miscanthus ( Miscanthus X giganteus ) and hybrid poplar trees ( Populus nigra X P . maximowiczii ) – as well as in no-till corn (maize; Zea mays L.) for comparison, all planted on former cropland in SW Michigan, USA.

corn↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Airborne flux measurements of ammonia over the southern Great Plains using chemical ionization mass spectrometry

Abstract. Ammonia (NH3) is an abundant trace gas in the atmosphere and an important player in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol formation and the atmosphere–surface exchange of nitrogen. The accurate determination of NH3 emission rates remains a challenge, partly due to the propensity of NH3 to interact with instrument surfaces, leading to high detection limits and slow response times. In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying ambient NH3, using chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) with deuterated benzene cations as reagents. The setup aimed at limiting sample–surface interactions and achieved a 1σ precision of 10–20 pptv and an immediate 1/e response rate of < 0.4 s, which compares favorably to the existing state of the art. The sensitivity exhibited an inverse humidity dependence, in particular in relatively dry conditions. Background of up to 10 % of the total signal required consideration as well, as it responded on the order of a few minutes. To showcase the method's capabilities, we quantified NH3 mixing ratios from measurements obtained during deployment on a Gulfstream I aircraft during the HI-SCALE (Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems) field campaign in rural Oklahoma during May 2016. Typical mixing ratios were 1–10 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for the boundary layer and 0.1–1 ppbv in the lower free troposphere. Sharp plumes of up to tens of ppbv of NH3 were encountered as well. We identified two of their sources as a large fertilizer plant and a cattle farm, and our mixing ratio measurements yielded upper bounds of 350 ± 50 and 0.6 kg NH3 h−1 for their respective momentary source rates. The fast response of the CIMS also allowed us to derive vertical NH3 fluxes within the turbulent boundary layer via eddy covariance, for which we chiefly used the continuous wavelet transform technique. As expected for a region dominated by agriculture, we observed predominantly upward fluxes, implying net NH3 emissions from the surface. The corresponding analysis focused on the most suitable flight, which contained two straight-and-level legs at ∼ 300 m above ground. We derived NH3 fluxes between 1 and 11 mol km−2 h−1 for these legs, at an effective spatial resolution of 1–2 km. The analysis demonstrated how flux measurements benefit from suitably arranged flight tracks with sufficiently long straight-and-level legs, and it explores the detrimental effect of measurement discontinuities. Following flux footprint estimations, comparison to the NH3 area emissions inventory provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicated overall agreement but also the absence of some sources, for instance the identified cattle farm. Our study concludes that high-precision CIMS measurements are a powerful tool for in situ measurements of ambient NH3 mixing ratios, and even allow for the airborne mapping of the air–surface exchange of NH3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, the situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr -1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Processes regulating progressive nitrogen limitation under elevated carbon dioxide: a meta-analysis

Abstract. The nitrogen (N) cycle has the potential to regulate climate change through its influence on carbon (C) sequestration. Although extensive research has explored whether or not progressive N limitation (PNL) occurs under CO2 enrichment, a comprehensive assessment of the processes that regulate PNL is still lacking. Here, we quantitatively synthesized the responses of all major processes and pools in the terrestrial N cycle with meta-analysis of CO2 experimental data available in the literature. The results showed that CO2 enrichment significantly increased N sequestration in the plant and litter pools but not in the soil pool, partially supporting one of the basic assumptions in the PNL hypothesis that elevated CO2 results in more N sequestered in organic pools. However, CO2 enrichment significantly increased the N influx via biological N fixation and the loss via N2O emission, but decreased the N efflux via leaching. In addition, no general diminished CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth was observed over time up to the longest experiment of 13 years. Overall, our analyses suggest that the extra N supply by the increased biological N fixation and decreased leaching may potentially alleviate PNL under elevated CO2 conditions in spite of the increases in plant N sequestration and N2O emission. Moreover, our syntheses indicate that CO2 enrichment increases soil ammonium (NH4+) to nitrate (NO3−) ratio. The changed NH4+/NO3− ratio and subsequent biological processes may result in changes in soil microenvironments, above-belowground community structures and associated interactions, which could potentially affect the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. In addition, our data synthesis suggests that more long-term studies, especially in regions other than temperate ones, are needed for comprehensive assessments of the PNL hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 10 5 km 2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO 2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO 2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO 2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO 2 , decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consistent responses of vegetation gas exchange to elevated atmospheric CO 2 emerge from heuristic and optimization models

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration is expected to increase leaf CO 2 assimilation rates, thus promoting plant growth and increasing leaf area. It also decreases stomatal conductance, allowing water savings, which have been hypothesized to drive large-scale greening, in particular in arid and semiarid climates. However, the increase in leaf area could reduce the benefits of elevated CO 2 concentration through soil water depletion. The net effect of elevated CO 2 on leaf- and canopy-level gas exchange remains uncertain. To address this question, we compare the outcomes of a heuristic model based on the Partitioning of Equilibrium Transpiration and Assimilation (PETA) hypothesis and three model variants based on stomatal optimization theory. Predicted relative changes in leaf- and canopy-level gas exchange rates are used as a metric of plant responses to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Both model approaches predict reductions in leaf-level transpiration rate due to decreased stomatal conductance under elevated CO 2 , but negligible (PETA) or no (optimization) changes in canopy-level transpiration due to the compensatory effect of increased leaf area. Leaf- and canopy-level CO 2 assimilation is predicted to increase, with an amplification of the CO 2 fertilization effect at the canopy level due to the enhanced leaf area. The expected increase in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) under warmer conditions is generally predicted to decrease the sensitivity of gas exchange to atmospheric CO 2 concentration in both models. The consistent predictions by different models that canopy-level transpiration varies little under elevated CO 2 due to combined stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase highlight the coordination of physiological and morphological characteristics in vegetation to maximize resource use (here water) under altered climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. The importance of carbon (C)–nutrient interactions to the prediction of future C uptake has long been recognized. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 1 is one of the few land surface models that include both N and P cycling and limitation (ELMv1-CNP). Here we provide a global-scale evaluation of ELMv1-CNP using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. Compared to simulations with optimal P availability, simulations with ELMv1-CNP produce better performance, particularly for simulated biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and global net C balance. We also show ELMv1-CNP-simulated N and P cycling is in good agreement with data-driven estimates. We compared the ELMv1-CNP-simulated response to CO2 enrichment with meta-analysis of observations from similar manipulation experiments. We show that ELMv1-CNP is able to capture the field-observed responses for photosynthesis, growth, and LAI. We investigated the role of P limitation in the historical balance and show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation, as the historical CO2 fertilization effect was reduced by 20 % and C emission due to land use and land cover change was 11 % lower when P limitation was considered. Our simulations suggest that the introduction of P cycle dynamics and C–N–P coupling will likely have substantial consequences for projections of future C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Position-specific kinetic isotope effects for nitrous oxide: a new expansion of the Rayleigh model

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent greenhouse gas and the most significant anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance currently being emitted. A major source of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions is the microbial conversion of fixed nitrogen species from fertilizers in agricultural soils. Thus, understanding the enzymatic mechanisms by which microbes produce N 2 O has environmental significance. Measurement of the 15 N/ 14 N isotope ratios of N 2 O produced by purified enzymes or axenic microbial cultures is a promising technique for studying N 2 O biosynthesis. Typically, N 2 O-producing enzymes combine nitrogen atoms from two identical substrate molecules (NO or NH 2 OH). Position-specific isotope analysis of the central (N α ) and outer (N β ) nitrogen atoms in N 2 O enables the determination of the individual kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) for N α and N β , providing mechanistic insight into the incorporation of each nitrogen atom. Previously, position-specific KIEs (and fractionation factors) were quantified using the Rayleigh distillation equation, i.e., via linear regression of δ 15 N α or δ 15 N β against [–f In f / (1 – f)], where f is the fraction of substrate remaining in a closed system. This approach, however, is inaccurate for N α and N β because it does not account for fractionation at N α affecting the isotopic composition of substrate available for incorporation into the β position (and vice versa). Therefore, we developed a new expansion of the Rayleigh model that includes specific terms for fractionation at the individual N 2 O nitrogen atoms. By applying this Expanded Rayleigh model to a variety of simulated N 2 O synthesis reactions with different combinations of normal, inverse, and/or no KIEs at N α and N β , we demonstrate that our new model is both accurate and robust. We also applied this new model to two previously published datasets describing N 2 O production from NH 2 OH oxidation in a methanotroph culture (Methylosinus trichosporium) and N 2 O production from NO by a purified Histoplasma capsulatum (fungal) P450 NOR, demonstrating that the Expanded Rayleigh model is a useful tool in calculating position-specific fractionation for N 2 O synthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system

Abstract. The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human–natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implementing belowground controls on nutrient uptake in ELMv2-SPRUCE improves representation of a boreal peatland ecosystem

Boreal peatlands store 13 %–32 % of the global soil carbon (C) stock, a service dependent on plant-mycorrhizal fungi associations. In these nutrient poor systems, ectomycorrhizal and ericoid mycorrhizal fungi supply up to >80 % of the nutrient requirements of their plant hosts, partly with mined nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from soil organic matter that are otherwise inaccessible to plants. Despite the ecological significance, mycorrhizal associations are only represented in a few land surface or ecosystem models. We modify the peatland branch of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELMv2-SPRUCE) to replace the default photosynthesis-driven inorganic N and P (NP) uptake process with a more realistic representation of the process via three pathways: (1) direct inorganic NP uptake by uncolonized fine roots, (2) indirect inorganic NP acquisition and (3) indirect NP acquisition from organic sources by mycorrhizal roots. We systematically evaluated the performance of the default and modified models with field observations from a whole ecosystem warming and carbon dioxide fertilization experimental site: Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environment (SPRUCE), in northern Minnesota, USA. The modified model reduces the underestimation of the growth response of shrubs in the default model to warming from 40 %–80 % to 17 %–35 % and reduces the overall relative absolute error on C fluxes from 1.61 to 1.54 in calibration. Improvements on modeled shrub growths and shrub-moss community net ecosystem exchanges are also seen in validation. The improved growth response of shrubs to warming is accompanied by several-fold increase in direct inorganic NP uptake and decrease in fungal colonization rate. The modified model simulates a smaller magnitude of transition of the ecosystem from C sink to C source under warming due to alleviation of plant nutrient limitation. Equifinality analysis shows the newly added parameters in the modified model can be constrained by the observed C fluxes. Sensitivity analysis shows the newly added parameters have stronger statistical interactions than the preexisting parameters in the default model. Overall, the modified model is an improvement over the default ELMv2-SPRUCE and will be a useful tool for understanding boreal peatland change.

Wang, Yaoping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2021

Soil organic matter and plant carbon allocated to nitrogen acquisition simulated by the FUN-BioCROP model

This data package contains the model input, results, and validation data from Juice et al (citation below). The FUN-BioCROP model (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen- Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection) advances the field of bioenergy modeling by integrating new empirical paradigms of the role of belowground processes in shaping coupled carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles. It was developed by modifying the FUN-CORPSE model (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen- Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment, Sulman et al. 2017 Ecology Letters) for use in bioenergy systems by including mechanistic tillage, organic matter addition, nitrogen fertilization, harvest, and feedstock-specific parameters, and to be driven by DayCent plant productivity and biomass data.

biofuel sustainability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Snowmass 2021 Whitepaper: Proton Structure at the Precision Frontier

An overwhelming number of theoretical predictions for hadron colliders require parton distribution functions (PDFs), which are an important ingredient of theory infrastructure for the next generation of high-energy experiments. This whitepaper summarizes the status and future prospects for determination of high-precision PDFs applicable in a wide range of energies and experiments, in particular in precision tests of the Standard Model and in new physics searches at the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider and Electron–Ion Collider. We discuss the envisioned advancements in experimental measurements, QCD theory, global analysis methodology, and computing that are necessary to bring unpolarized PDFs in the nucleon to the N2LO and N3LO accuracy in the QCD coupling strength. Special attention is given to the new tasks that emerge in the era of the precision PDF analysis, such as those focusing on the robust control of systematic factors both in experimental measurements and theoretical computations. Various synergies between experimental and theoretical studies of the hadron structure are explored, including opportunities for studying PDFs for nuclear and meson targets, PDFs with electroweak contributions or dependence on the transverse momentum, for incisive comparisons between phenomenological models for the PDFs and computations on discrete lattice, and for cross-fertilization with machine learning/AI approaches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2021

A genetic metasomatic link between eclogitic and peridotitic diamond inclusions

Diamond inclusions sample the otherwise inaccessible archive of Earth’s deep interior. The geochemical and petrological diversity of diamond inclusions reflects either pre-metasomatic upper mantle heterogeneity or metasomatism coeval with diamond formation. We focus on the origin of lithospheric garnet and clinopyroxene inclusions by simulating metasomatic reactions between eclogitic fluids and mantle peridotites at 5 GPa, 1000 °C, and across a range of redox conditions (logƒO 2 = -1 to -6 ΔFMQ). Our results demonstrate that fluid-rock interaction can result in the formation of eclogitic, websteritic, and peridotitic silicates from a single fluid during a single diamond-forming metasomatic event. Ergo, the petrogenesis of diamond and their inclusions can be syngenetic, and the petrological diversity of diamond inclusions can reflect metasomatism coeval with diamond formation. Furthermore, during the metasomatism, refractory peridotite can be converted to fertile websterite which could become a pyroxenitic mantle source for oceanic basalts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Rare variants contribute disproportionately to quantitative trait variation in yeast

How variants with different frequencies contribute to trait variation is a central question in genetics. We use a unique model system to disentangle the contributions of common and rare variants to quantitative traits. We generated ~14,000 progeny from crosses among 16 diverse yeast strains and identified thousands of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for 38 traits. We combined our results with sequencing data for 1011 yeast isolates to show that rare variants make a disproportionate contribution to trait variation. Evolutionary analyses revealed that this contribution is driven by rare variants that arose recently, and that negative selection has shaped the relationship between variant frequency and effect size. We leveraged the structure of the crosses to resolve hundreds of QTLs to single genes. These results refine our understanding of trait variation at the population level and suggest that studies of rare variants are a fertile ground for discovery of genetic effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structural basis of malaria transmission blockade by a monoclonal antibody to gamete fusogen HAP2

HAP2 is a transmembrane gamete fusogen found in multiple eukaryotic kingdoms and is structurally homologous to viral class II fusogens. Studies in Plasmodium have suggested that HAP2 is an attractive target for vaccines that block transmission of malaria. HAP2 has three extracellular domains, arranged in the order D2, D1, and D3. Here, we report monoclonal antibodies against the D3 fragment of Plasmodium berghei HAP2 and crystal structures of D3 in complex with Fab fragments of two of these antibodies, one of which blocks fertilization of Plasmodium berghei in vitro and transmission of malaria in mosquitoes. We also show how this Fab binds the complete HAP2 ectodomain with electron microscopy. The two antibodies cross-react with HAP2 among multiple plasmodial species. Our characterization of the Plasmodium D3 structure, HAP2 ectodomain architecture, and mechanism of inhibition provide insights for the development of a vaccine to block malaria transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗