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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Imaging Nanoscale Energy Transport and Conversion with Ultrafast Electron Microscopy (Final Technical Report)

Light-matter interactions are ubiquitous in nature and reside at the heart of innumerable technologies. The cascade of processes that occur when a material absorbs a photon of light are exceedingly complex and are interwoven in both space and time, rendering precise determination of the atomic-scale and ultrafast mechanisms immensely challenging. The advent of methods for generating short pulses of light several decades ago led to major advances in understanding the initial moments of light absorption and the resultant effects, though directly interrogating the response of the atoms within the material continued to prove challenging. More recently, methods for generating ultrashort pulses of X-rays and fast electrons have opened the way to probing photoinduced structural dynamics of a wide range of matter in multiple phases. An especially promising laboratory-scale method is ultrafast electron microscopy (UEM), wherein the modalities of conventional transmission electron microscopes (imaging, diffraction, spectroscopy) are extended into the femtosecond temporal regime. Here, the ultrafast imaging and diffraction modalities of UEM were used to study the transient structural aspects of photoexcitation of semiconducting materials (e.g., spatially-resolved electron-phonon coupling, excitation and emission of acoustic phonons, and discrete nanoscale scattering processes). The project had three main objectives: (1) determination of the excitation mechanisms of dense, hypersonic charge-carrier waves and the spatially mediated means by which they couple to the lattice via coherent phonon emission, especially with UEM imaging, wherein effects of nanoscale structural and morphological features on the coupling and relaxation dynamics are expected to dictate nucleation sites and preferred wave vectors, (2) elucidation of photoinduced acoustic-phonon seeding, emergence, propagation, and decay over nanoscale crystal regions and especially with respect to local strain fields and atomic-scale disruptions in lattice order, and (3) interwoven with the first two were efforts aimed at realizing combined angstrom-femtosecond spatiotemporal imaging with UEM. The outcomes and impacts of this project were the generation of new knowledge with respect to fundamental light-matter interactions and, especially, the spatially-mediated excitation and evolution of the structural response of materials following coherent photoexcitation. Importantly, the spatial and temporal resolutions of the UEM imaging modalities used are well-suited for such studies and enable spatially-resolved mechanisms to be determined as a function of atomic order, structural features, and morphology. In addition, ultrafast crystallographic measurements were used to correlate real- and reciprocal-space dynamics in order to determine atomic-scale preferential wave vectors and ultrafast scattering mechanisms, especially as dictated by specimen boundary conditions. The obtained results, as detailed in peer-reviewed publications and presentations, illustrate the importance of ultrafast, angstrom-scale real-space imaging for developing a comprehensive understanding of energy transport and conversion in materials.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Illuminating gut microbiome signaling pathways that regulate host circadian rhythms

The gut microbiome affects host physiology by modulating nutrient acquisition and creating chemical signals that are received by host receptors. The molecular details of the orchestration of these microbial signaling processes remain largely unclear. We used a function-centric approach to interrogate the mechanistic links between gut microbiome metabolism and host circadian rhythms. We used rodent models, including germ-free mice, to determine how the gut microbiome influences host chronobiology by assaying metabolites in the gut and in circulation, and we used activity-based protein profiling to provide direct functional links to individual taxa. We specifically investigated how externally imposed behavioral schedules, such as feeding schedules, can desynchronize biological rhythms in metabolic organs (e.g., the gut, pancreas, and liver) from the central circadian rhythms regulated by the brain. We hypothesize that the gut microbiome creates chemical signals that can be entrained by feeding/fasting schedule to induce internal metabolic misalignment. Elaborating on the findings of this project will elucidate the chemical signals from the microbiome that modulate biological rhythms in the host’s metabolic organs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development and implementation of an in situ high-resolution isotopic microscope for measuring metabolic interactions in soil mesocosms (Final Report)

Many of our planet’s ecosystems rely on the activities of soil microbial communities. These microbes have significant and wide-ranging effects: they metabolize carbon and other nutrients, interact with plants and fungi, and perform other processes important to soil health. However, our ability to directly observe the enzymatic and metabolic activities of microbes within soil is currently limited, not only by the complexity of soil microbial communities themselves, but also by the lack of experimental tools to study them and their molecular interactions in situ. These challenges hinder our understanding of the life-sustaining processes of biomass decomposition and the manner in which it contributes to the movement of freed carbon within soil ecosystems. Here we aimed to develop a novel ultrahigh-resolution isotopic microscope that combines complementary imaging modalities to gain insights into metabolic cycling in soil. This final report covers both the portion of this work that was initially completed at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill from 2018 to 2019 (as award DE-SC0019012) and then from 2020 to 2022 (2023 in NCE) at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School. This goal was to build an integrated platform consisting of fluorescence microscopy, Raman microspectroscopy, and nanospray desorption electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (nanoDESI-FTICR-MS) to directly investigate microbial activities and molecular transformations occurring in soil by exploiting the use of both fluorescent labels and stable isotope probing. Specifically, our instrument was conceived as integrating: (A) fluorescence detection to localize soil microbes, identify bacteria taking up polysaccharides, and monitor gene expression of enzymes involved in decomposition; (B) Raman microspectroscopy to determine which microbes incorporate decomposition products into their biomass, as well as which decomposers are metabolically active; and (C) nanoDESI-FTICR-MS imaging to spatially probe, in real-time, the metabolites in the surrounding area, which we expect will reveal the distributions of the products of the enzymatic breakdown of polysaccharides, as well as specialized metabolites acting as cell-cell signals between decomposers. To enable these measurements, we exploited fluorescence-based probes to map the microbes that are enzymatically active (per A) and utilized stable isotope-labeled substrates to visualize both the microbial and molecular fate of decomposed biomass (B and C, respectively). To accomplish our goal, we combined the expertise of a multidisciplinary group of scientists to pursue the construction of this microscope and to investigate scientific questions that would be facilitated by such a capability. We aimed to employ this spatially informative, high-resolution isotopic microscope to visualize the critical steps of biomass degradation and the molecular fate of other environmentally relevant substrates within soil mesocosms. Accordingly, this technology will enhance our understanding of the microbial and metabolic interactions occurring within soil communities that are relevant to carbon degradation and other soil processes. The instrument has been developed and housed at EMSL, where it will be available to the entire EMSL User Base, enabling a variety of related DOE-relevant systems to be interrogated in the future by diverse scientific research groups.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

New Quantum Phenomena by Combining 2D Materials with Complex Oxides

This project focused on forming clean interfaces between exfoliated 2D materials and epitaxial oxides with the goal of determining the extent to which the electronic and magnetic properties of the former are influenced by the latter. Clear effects were observed in both device structures for which electronic transport properties were measured and unpatterned interfaces interrogated by polarized light to determine magnetic dichroic response. This work resulted in one paper already published and two others to be written, pending the outcome of ongoing experiments and theoretical calculations

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

WIRE-21 Experiment Irradiation Conditions and In-Situ Data Collection

This report summarizes the in situ data collected during three cycles of irradiation (~75 days) of the Wireless Instrumented Removable Beryllium Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21) in the removable beryllium (RB) positions of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). The experiment was designed primarily to evaluate the effects of high neutron flux and fluence on the performance of wireless temperature and pressure sensors being developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC). WEC’s sensors could provide critical data regarding the evolution of centerline temperatures and pressurization due to fission gas release during fuel operation in light-water reactors (LWRs) or various advanced reactor applications. In addition to WEC’s wireless sensors, many other sensors were interrogated, including thermocouples, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs), distributed fiber optic temperature sensors, and passive neutron flux wires and silicon carbide thermometry.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Automated Fissile Mass Estimation Python Script for the Advanced Experimental Fuel Counter (AEFC)

The Advanced Experimental Fuel Counter (AEFC) is a non-destructive assay (NDA) instrument developed to quantify the residual fissile mass in research reactor spent fuel assemblies. The system is installed in a spent fuel pool and measurements are acquired underwater. A calibration curve relates the totals and coincidence counting signal from active interrogation of the spent fuel assemblies to the fissile mass remaining in the fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Optical Fiber-Based Sensors for Nuclear Microreactor Structural Health Monitoring

This report provides an experimental assessment of two different optical fiber–based acoustic sensors that are being investigated for application in nuclear microreactors to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities. Optical fibers are resilient in high-temperature and high-radiation environments, have a small sensor footprint, are immune to electromagnetic interference, and are capable of spatially distributed sensing. The two sensors investigated here are (1) Fabry–Pérot Cavities (FPCs) between two copper-coated fibers, embedded in nickel capillary tubes and (2) type-I fiber Bragg grating (FBG) arrays contained within metal capillary tubes. These sensors can be interrogated using low-coherence interferometry or swept wavelength interferometry, respectively, to measure the resonant frequencies of the components or systems to which these sensors are bonded. The FPC developed herein has been subjected to temperatures up to nearly 800°C while tack-welded to a tubular test specimen. Even at the highest temperatures, the measured resonant frequencies compared well with those obtained using an accelerometer that was bonded to an unheated portion of the specimen. The FBG array was tested in multiple bonding configurations to a tubular test specimen, all at room temperature, with the understanding that high temperature (i.e., type II) FBGs could be used to obtain similar data at high temperatures; the FBG array data were validated with noncontact laser vibrometry, which is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory to relate acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects. The goal of this work is to identify the most promising techniques that are also compatible with operation in a microreactor environment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Performance Evaluation of the Starfire nGen-350 DD Neutron Generator for use with the Fast Neutron Coincidence Collar

The Starfire Industries nGen-350 DD neutron generator has been developed for use with the Fast Neutron Coincidence Collar (FNCL). The generator was adapted from the nGen-310 model generator by Starfire to accommodate an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) request to incorporate a neutron yield stabilization mechanism. An nGen-350 generator was obtained by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for evaluation as a potential neutron interrogation source replacement for Am(Li) in the FNCL. This report provides a summary of the performance of the nGen-350.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Strain measurements of Nb₃Sn coils with optical fibers

The HL-LHC at CERN will be using new superconducting quadrupole magnets (MQXFA) made of Nb₃Sn that are in the process of being tested before installation in the LHC tunnel. MQXFA07 and MQXFA08 magnets failed because of high stress developed at the coil wedge/end spacer interface, where the Nb₃Sn coil, the stainless-steel end parts, and copper wedges exhibit different strain responses. Interrogating a cut piece of coil QXFP06 with optical fibers, we expect to get a better understanding of the stress response of the coil wedge/end spacer interface.

Nisa, Kuvvetn↗

Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator Cohort 1: Authentication and Authorization

In the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy, the Biden-Harris Administration defines the need for a "defensible, resilient digital ecosystem where it is costlier to attack systems than defend them." The strategy cites the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator (CECA) as an exemplary effort to bolster the security and resilience of clean energy generation. These efforts help "secure the clean energy grid of the future and [generate] security best practices that extend to other critical infrastructure sectors" and promise broad and far-reaching impacts to bridge the capabilities of private industry and the needs of energy production. Cohort 1 of CECA launched in the fall of 2022 with a focus on solutions that provide strong authentication and authorization for industrial control systems to mitigate attacks on the energy grid. Authentication and authorization verify that the identity (authentication) and permissions (authorization) of a user or device are aligned with their assigned roles. Weaknesses in either can have serious repercussions. To assess the strength of Cohort 1's solutions, CECA devised threat scenarios grounded in historical precedents: the CECA team reviewed exploits from real-world case studies of state-sponsored actors to match the assessment's attack paths and targets. Cohort 1 results provided the energy industry, product vendors, and related agencies valuable insights into the efficacy and applicability of solutions in common system configurations under realistic threat scenarios. The results of the assessment highlight points for interrogation and improvement in subsequent technology iterations. CECA's evaluations are part of an ongoing conversation and collaboration to bolster U.S. cyber resilience against adversaries today and in the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HTV Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) Results and Analysis

This report is responsive to 2017 Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Memorandum Purchase Order No. 00181805, statement of work 13687 “HTR Graphite R&D – FY ORNL 2017 MPO”, Deliverable 12A “issue final report on the HTV PIE to INL”, due June 15 th 2017.The HTV (High Temperature Vessel) was a HFIR (High Flux Isotope Reactor) high temperature target rod capsule in support of the DOE’s (Department of Energy) High Temperature Reactor (HTR) program. The HTV capsule contained eight sub-capsules, each with nine graphite specimens. The sub-capsules were designed to operate at ~900°C, ~1200°C or ~1600°C. The actual irradiation temperature was established by interrogating SiC and graphite TMs during PIE (post-irradiation examination. The capsule dose ranged from 1.49 dpa to 3.34 dpa, and varied with specimen position within the capsule the maximum dose occurring at the reactor mid-plane and the minimum dose occurring at the core periphery. The irradiated graphite specimens were examined during PIE to establish their high temperature dimensional and elastic (Young’s) modulus changes. The PIE results are reported and analyzed here. The dimensional and modulus changes were shown to have a strong thermal dependence. The dimensional changes were small, being of the order of a few percent or less, ranging from a maximum shrinkage of -3.1% (PCEA WG, T irr =1500°C at 3.3 dpa) to +0.131% (2114 AG, T irr = 869 at 3.2 dpa). The specimen volume shrinkages varied from –0.81 (2114, T irr = 840 at 3.1 dpa) to -9.15% (PCEA, T irr =1500°C at 3.3 dpa). The volume changes were larger at higher Irradiation temperatures. Of the six grades examined, only 2114 moved into the net positive dimensional swelling situation. Significantly, the volume change for 2114 remained negative at the doses and temperature tested here. Dimensional and volume changes were explained in terms of the temperature dependence of the crystal growth rate, the anisotropy of the crystal growth (crystallographic c-axis growth and crystallographic a-direction shrinkage) and the thermal closure of aligned micro-porosity. The modulus changes were much larger, being of the order of a few tens of percent. A trend of lesser fractional increases of Young’s Modulus with an increasing T irr was noted. The minimum increase in Young’s Modulus was 20% (H-451 WG, T irr =1500°C at 3.3 dpa) and the maximum 71% (IG-110, T irr = 840(actual) at 3.3 dpa). The rise in Young’s modulus is attributed to dislocation pinning by lattice defects produced by neutron irradiation and the temperature dependency is related to the irradiation temperature influence on the number of defect available to pin dislocations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Distributed Acoustic Sensing as a Monitoring Tool at LANL [Slides]

DAS records a variety of signals, including (1) earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, (2) explosions (DAG, mining, etc.), (3) acoustic waves, (4) ocean (waves, whales), (5) vehicle, ship and pedestrian traffic, (6) glaciology and landslides, and (7) oil and gas. Main questions include: (1) what is the extent of the signal content? (2) how does DAS compare to traditional sensors? (3) how do interrogators, fiber types, and fiber depth burials impact measurements? (4) special applications offshore to overcome the lack of instrumentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Threat Agnostic Virulence Assessment of Pathogens

Virulence assessment of new, emerging, and engineered pathogens is critical to mounting an appropriate response to a biothreat agent. The capacity of the pathogen to colonize human and harm tissues must be characterized to understand pathogenicity pathways and optimize diagnosis and treatment of resulting disease. Respiratory pathogens are of interest because they can have high transmissibility rates, as observed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causative agent of Covid-19. Current technologies are insufficient to assess threats due to their reliance on systems with only one cell type and on sequencing the pathogen. However, it is known that sequence is not an accurate predictor of function, and sequencing can be unreliable for newly emerged or engineered pathogens. An ideal system would consist of relevant epithelial cell types and an assay sensitive enough to detect changes in host responses that do not rely on DNA sequencing. We chose a system consisting of host lung epithelial cells that can be used to assess the virulence of unknown respiratory pathogens. We interrogated pathogens using this model and assess features of pathogenicity. Our objective is to leverage PNNLs strengths in tissue engineering and proteomics capabilities to build a multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) or parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay for human host cell proteins whose abundance is influenced by infection. These responses can were then assessed for relative virulence using pathogen agnostic signatures. When confronted with a pathogen, cells activate dedicated signaling pathways, typically through phosphorylation of regulatory proteins and downstream activation of host cell networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Learning-based Computational Study of the Thermodynamic, Structural, and Dynamic Properties of Molten Salt at the Atomic and Electronic Scale and Experimental Validations (Final Report for Project 19-16909)

The project completed several milestones related to the work scope to determine thermophysical properties of the molten salt FLiNaK. A combined approach to integrate advanced computations with neutron scattering experimental interrogation was used to quantify the structure and mass transport of pure FLiNaK and FLiNaK with additives. The additives investigated included Ce, Cs, Zr, and Cr. The primary outcome of the computational work was the development of a neutral network force field interatomic potential (referred to as the NNFF model in this document). The computational work also involved ab initio calculations to determine the ground truth and molecular dynamics simulations to provide computational analogs to the experimental campaign. The experimental work used enriched F 7 LiNaK prepared by Argonne National Laboratory. The use of enriched F 7 LiNaK reduced parasitic neutron absorption and significantly improved data collection and data quality. Several graduate students were supported during the course of the project, which included a one year no-cost extension. These students were trained in advanced computational methods, advanced neutron scattering methods, neutron scattering data analysis and interpretation, and molten salt sample preparation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Improved Methods for Modeling Functional Transition Metal Compounds in Complex Environments: Ground States, Excited States, and Spectroscopies

Rapid advances in energy applications require new theory and computational models to provide guidance for interpretation of experimental results and mechanistic understanding. New theory development is necessary to treat systems of increasing complexity, size, and relevance to real applications. Functional transition metal compounds, including molecules, clusters, nanoparticles, surfaces, and solids, provide particular promise for magnetic, optical, and catalytic applications. However, such systems can be exceptionally challenging to model. To make progress in understanding and designing transition metal compounds for energy applications, theory must be able to simulate such systems in complex environments, as well as simulate the spectra of such complex systems to provide direct connections with experiment. Leveraging the independent expertise of the team’s members, this project aimed to make inroads to the theoretical and computational challenges associated with studying transition metal compounds, their reaction chemistry, photophysics and photochemistry, and response to spectroscopic interrogation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Expanding the utility and range of quantum and polymer dots for multiplexed super resolution fluorescence imaging in plants (Final Progress Report)

The emission spectra of plant pigments currently limit the number of fluorescent colors that can be imaged simultaneously and, therefore, the number of cellular components that can be imaged within a single experiment. Hence, developing fluorescent tags and a microscope system that can image beyond the visible range (NIR) would greatly enhance plant imaging capabilities. Extending imaging into the NIR would support the interrogation of multiple proteins/molecules simultaneously, but would inevitably decrease spatial resolution due to the increase of the diffraction limit of light. To address this need, we propose to develop a super resolution fluorescence imaging (SRFI) platform that would allow imaging of NIR-emitting molecules, as well as quantum dots (QDs) and polymer dots (Pdots).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Bid-in Price-Sensitive Load: A Comparison with Fixed Load in a Realistic Test System

Bulk power systems operations, in both simulation and practice, are often built on the principle of minimizing production costs, which assumes to first order that demand is fixed and that the only degrees of freedom for balancing generation and load are supply-side unit commitment and dispatch decisions. The purpose of this report is to interrogate the value of welfare-maximizing markets that not only physically balance demand and supply but also ensure that market outcomes provide consumer value by directly maximizing welfare, defined as the value of consumption minus production costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗