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Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Description of the LASSO Alpha 1 Release

The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has been named the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations will serve many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO will generate a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It will also provide tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. Many different uses are envisioned for the combined LASSO LES and observational library. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO will help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model yourself. For a modeler, LASSO will help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at http://www.arm. gov/science/themes/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Nugget Size of Resistance Spot Welds Using Infrared Thermal Videos With Image Segmentation and Convolutional Neural Network

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is a widely adopted joining technique in automotive industry. Recent advancement in sensing technology makes it possible to collect thermal videos of the weld nugget during RSW using an infrared (IR) camera. The effective and timely analysis of such thermal videos has the potential of enabling in situ nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld nugget by predicting nugget thickness and diameter. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated to be effective in analyzing imaging data in many applications. However, the thermal videos in RSW present unique data-level challenges that compromise the effectiveness of most pre-trained DL models. We propose a novel image segmentation method for handling the RSW thermal videos to improve the prediction performance of DL models in RSW. The proposed method transforms raw thermal videos into spatial-temporal instances in four steps: video-wise normalization, removal of uninformative images, watershed segmentation, and spatial-temporal instance construction. The extracted spatial-temporal instances serve as the input data for training a DL-based NDE model. The proposed method is able to extract high-quality data with spatial-temporal correlations in the thermal videos, while being robust to the impact of unknown surface emissivity. Overall, our case studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better prediction of nugget thickness and diameter than predicting without the transformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An interactive modeling program for the generation of planar polygons for boundary type solids representations of wire frame models

The development of a general link between three dimensional wire frame models and rigid solid models is discussed. An interactive computer graphics program was developed to serve as a front end to an algorithm (COSMIC Program No. ARC-11446) which offers a general solution to the hidden line problem where the input data is either line segments of n-sided planar polygons of the most general type with internal boundaries. The program provides a general interface to CAD/CAM data bases and is implemented for models created on the Unigraphics VAX 11/780-based CAD/CAM systems with the display software written for DEC's VS11 color graphics devices.

Ozsoy, T.↗

Mechanistic Understanding of Uranyl Ion Complexation on Montmorillonite Edges: A Combined First-Principles Molecular Dynamics–Surface Complexation Modeling Approach

Systematic first-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulations were carried out to study the structures, free energies, and acidity constants of UO 2 2+ surface complexes on montmorillonite in order to elucidate the surface complexation mechanisms of the uranyl ion (UO 2 2+ ) on clay mineral edges at the atomic scale. Four representative complexing sites were investigated, that is, ≡Al(OH) 2 and ≡AlOHSiO on the (010) surface and ≡AlOHOa and ≡SiOOa on the (110) surface. The results show that uranyl ions form bidentate complexes on these sites. We report all calculated binding free energies for these complexes are very similar. These bidentate complexes can be hydrolyzed, and their corresponding derived p K a values (around 5.0 and 9.0 for p K a1 and p K a2 , respectively) indicate that UO 2 (OH) + and UO 2 (OH) 2 surface groups are the dominant surface species in the environmental pH range. The OH groups of UO 2 (OH) 2 surface complexes can act as complexing sites for subsequent metals. Additional simulations showed that such multinuclear adsorption is feasible and can be important at high pH. Furthermore, FPMD simulation results served as input parameters for an electrostatic thermodynamic surface complexation model (SCM) that adequately reproduced adsorption data from the literature. Overall, this study provides an improved understanding of UO 2 2+ complexation on clay mineral edge surfaces.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Incorporating Heterogeneity into 3D Geologic Models for the Alluvial Basin Reference Case

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. Hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins are scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in deep regional water tables. Deep regional water tables allow for significant vertical separation between proposed repository depths and groundwater and thus longer transport paths from a hypothetical repository to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. In alluvial basins, alluvium creates a thick geologic host medium that serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system and isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository by limiting flow and transport of radionuclides.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Using leaf and stomatal traits to predict biomass production and water use efficiency in Populus

Climate change is reshaping ecosystems, driving plants to adapt through leaf-trait plasticity that reflects strategies for growth and water use. Predicting biomass production and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) remains challenging because of genetic, taxonomic, and environmental variability. Here, we used eastern cottonwood and Populus hybrids as a model system to test whether easily measurable leaf traits can serve as reliable predictors of performance, and whether adding stomatal and biochemical traits improves predictive power. Across two field sites in Mississippi, leaf mass per area (LMA), biomass production, iWUE, leaf area, and foliar nitrogen ( N %) differed significantly among taxa and sites, while other traits were conserved. Factorial analysis of mixed data (FAMD) revealed distinct clustering of taxa and sites, indicating coordinated variation among leaf and stomatal traits. Pairwise correlations highlighted fundamental trade-offs, with biomass positively related to LMA and petiole length but negatively associated with iWUE, N %, and carbon isotopic ratios (δ 13 C). Leaf temperature and leaf angle varied among taxa and were significantly correlated with LMA and petiole length, suggesting mechanisms of heat dissipation and leaf movability that link simple traits to gas exchange and productivity. Weighted multiple linear regression models explained 80%–91% of variation in biomass production and iWUE. Models using only LMA, petiole length, and stomatal metrics performed nearly as well as those incorporating N %, and δ 13 C, with complex traits adding approximately 10% explanatory power. These results demonstrate that simple morphological traits capture integrated functional trade-offs, while complex traits refine predictions. This tiered approach provides an efficient framework for selecting high-yielding, water-efficient genotypes of Populus and other hardwood species, offering practical pathways to enhance carbon uptake and iWUE under climate change.

biomass production↗

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model

African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked to Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on the synoptic timescale by serving as seedling disturbances for TC genesis. However, it is unclear whether climatological TC frequency is limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of suppressing AEWs using a 3-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional model simulations, in which AEWs were either retained or removed through the lateral boundary conditions. Suppressing AEWs did not substantially change seasonal TC number, but did influence TC intensity, genesis time and location. Suppressing AEWs produced stronger TCs, shifted peak TC genesis from September to August, and reduced (increased) TC genesis in the eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico). Without AEWs, TCs generated under more favorable large-scale atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, these results indicate that AEWs may not be reliable predictors of basin-wide seasonal TC frequency. However, simulations provide evidence that AEWs could influence the large-scale environment that is important for TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Salem Smart Power Center: An Assessment of Battery Performance and Economic Potential

This paper presents an assessment of the economic potential of a 5 MW/1.25 MWh Energy Storage System (ESS) installed at the Salem Smart Power Center (SSPC), a smart grid technology demonstration facility owned and operated by Portland General Electric (PGE) in Salem, Oregon. The ESS and the grid conditions in which it operates were modeled using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Battery Storage Evaluation Tool (BSET) to explore tradeoffs between services, and to develop optimal control strategies. This assessment monetized the value derived from nine services the SSPC could provide to PGE and the customers it serves. The ESS and the grid conditions in which it operates were modeled using PNNL’s in-house optimization tool BSET to explore tradeoffs between services, and to develop optimal control strategies. The analysis resulted in a number of lessons that provide crucial insights into the practical application of ESS, including; The SSPC, which was originally conceived as a research and test facility and built with the prevailing maturity technology level, was built at a cost ($20.4 million) that exceeds current day prices ($5.4 million) for a similarly designed and built 5 MW/1.25 MWh system; In terms of economic operation, the SSPC is currently underutilized, deployed only for primary frequency response. PNNL modeling indicates that optimal operation of the ESS could generate an additional value of $2.3 million over 20 years. It should also be noted that primary frequency response is the highest benefit application but requires a response from the SSPC only 17 hours each year. While optimally engaged, the ESS would provide arbitrage and ancillary services 78 percent of the time, but those services generate only 27 percent of the total value; Participation in Western EIM represents an interesting opportunity for PGE with a potential to generate $2.1 million value in PV terms over 20 years in the 5-min real-time market; With an energy to power ratio of only 0.25, the SSPC is not well suited to engage in most energy-intensive applications such as arbitrage or ancillary services. By upsizing the storage capacity to 5 MWh and 10MWh, the additional value allows the benefits ($13.3 million and 20.3 million, respectively) to exceed the system’s revenue requirements ($11.5 and $16.4 million, respectively). For the SSPC, ROI ratios exceeded 1.0 when the energy to power ratio fell between 0.5 and 3.5, and peaked at an energy to power ratio of 2.0. This report represents the output of the first of a two-phase effort. Phase II will involve the development of enhanced control strategies to assist PGE in realizing the benefits of energy storage in real-time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Erythroid cell growth and differentiation in vitro in the simulated microgravity environment of the NASA rotating wall vessel bioreactor

Prolonged exposure of humans and experimental animals to the altered gravitational conditions of space flight has adverse effects on the lymphoid and erythroid hematopoietic systems. Although some information is available regarding the cellular and molecular changes in lymphocytes exposed to microgravity, little is known about the erythroid cellular changes that may underlie the reduction in erythropoiesis and resultant anemia. We now report a reduction in erythroid growth and a profound inhibition of erythropoietin (Epo)-induced differentiation in a ground-based simulated microgravity model system. Rauscher murine erythroleukemia cells were grown either in tissue culture vessels at 1 x g or in the simulated microgravity environment of the NASA-designed rotating wall vessel (RWV) bioreactor. Logarithmic growth was observed under both conditions; however, the doubling time in simulated microgravity was only one-half of that seen at 1 x g. No difference in apoptosis was detected. Induction with Epo at the initiation of the culture resulted in differentiation of approximately 25% of the cells at 1 x g, consistent with our previous observations. In contrast, induction with Epo at the initiation of simulated microgravity resulted in only one-half of this degree of differentiation. Significantly, the growth of cells in simulated microgravity for 24 h prior to Epo induction inhibited the differentiation almost completely. The results suggest that the NASA RWV bioreactor may serve as a suitable ground-based microgravity simulator to model the cellular and molecular changes in erythroid cells observed in true microgravity.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗

Execution of an Alternative Modeling Strategy for Closure of the Rainier Mesa Corrective Action Unit at the Nevada National Security Site - 19099

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) is investigating radionuclide contaminant movements in groundwater derived from a decades-long period of underground nuclear testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) to support regulatory corrective action and closure requirements. The project is built around an integrated campaign of drilling and sampling, data interpretation, computer modeling, and broader monitoring activities conducted under a joint Federal Facilities Agreement and Consent Order (1996 as amended) (FFACO) between the State of Nevada, the DOE, and the U.S. Department of Defense. The FFACO strategy is applied to individual Corrective Action Units (CAUs) that roughly envelop disparate geographic testing areas at the NNSS. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain (RMSM) CAU is a geologically and hydrologically complex system lying in a remote up-gradient section of the NNSS. It was the site of 67 underground tests conducted between 1957 and 1992, 61 at Rainier Mesa proper, and 6 at Shoshone Mountain, isolated to its south. The original strategy to close the RMSM CAU required a simulation-based investigation to define the evolution of contaminated volumes of groundwater (in 3D) under uncertainty as a means to define a surface-projected contaminant boundary and to serve as a basis for longer term monitoring activities. Early models developed under this strategy proved to be quite complex and difficult to calibrate. Additional costs required to better characterize the system were judged to be out of balance with the low risks associated with this particular CAU. As a result, an Alternative Modeling Strategy (AMS) was adopted. The AMS removes the requirement for developing ensembles of 3D simulations and replaces it with a simpler one requiring the generation of multiple 1D streamline models. These are meant to encompass a range of alternative, yet plausible release and transport scenarios as a means to bound the overall lateral extent of contaminant transport. This paper will review the modeling approach developed under the AMS and its application to the Rainier Mesa portion of the CAU. Preliminary model results made under different parametric assumptions and boundary condition scenarios will be presented. Additional refinements of the model and its further application will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of Margin-Based Methods to Assess System Health

Health management of complex systems such as nuclear power plants is an essential task to guarantee system reliability. This task can be greatly enhanced by constantly monitoring asset status and performances and process such data (through anomaly detection, diagnostic, and prognostic computational algorithms) to identify asset degradation trends and faulty states. While such information and data are typically available for many of the assets, they are not propagated from the asset to the system level in order to identify the most critical assets and prioritize maintenance and surveillance activities. The main reason is driven by the fact that current reliability modeling techniques are inadequate to process such information/data. This is due to the nature of these techniques which are based on the concept of failure rate/probability that do not serve an operational context where quantitative asset health information is available. Simply stated, current reliability techniques serve a run-to-failure operational setting and not a predictive maintenance one where the goal is to perform maintenance and surveillance activities only when they are needed based on asset health. The risk informed asset management (RIAM) project is focusing on the development of a different kind of reliability modeling techniques designed to adequately serve a predictive operational setting. Such reliability techniques move aways from a failure rate/probability to a margin-based mindset where margin is here used as a metric to quantify asset health based only on current and past operational experience of the asset under consideration. In addition, margin-based reliability techniques are able to propagate asset health information from the component to system level and provide importance measure to each asset. This report summarizes a recent activity performed in collaboration with plant modernization pathway designed to integrate monitoring data into margin-based reliability models. Such activity focuses on a specific system of an existing nuclear power plant where large amount of historic monitoring data is used to monitor asset and system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment

Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.

machine learning↗

Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment

Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be easily expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.

machine learning↗

The Necessity for Iteration in the Application of Numerical Simulation to EGS: Examples from the EGS Collab Test Bed 1

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO's flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper reviews specific numerical simulations supporting the design of experiments within Test Bed 1, a volume of phyllite rock under in-situ stress conditions off the western side of the West Access Drift on the 4850 Level, near Governor's Corner. Numerical simulations were executed prior to the start of hydraulic stimulation activities within Test Bed 1 following standard practices, using best estimates of principal stress conditions, thermal conditions, and the rock petrophysical properties, including geomechanical properties. These simulations indicated notching of the borehole would promote the initiation of transverse fractures, seismic magnitudes during the hydraulic stimulation would be below 0.1 magnitude on the Richter scale, a rock thermal conductivity of 5.0 W/m K yielded agreement with kISMET borehole temperature logs, back pressure on the production borehole would increase circulation across the test bed, and the production borehole would serve to halt propagation of the hydraulic fracture to the drift. Pre-existing natural fractures, heterogeneities in the rock properties, monitoring boreholes, and overlooked mine elements have prompted a second look at numerically modeling stimulation, fluid circulation, tracer migration, and thermal breakthrough. Numerical simulation is an invaluable tool for providing insight and understanding to complex physical processes. The success of simulations, however, often depends on including all of the salient features of the system in the founding conceptual model. This paper takes a retrospective look at examples where the conceptual model and simulation was sufficient to provide accurate forecasts and those where elements were missing, necessitating rethinking of the simulation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Necessity for Iteration in the Application of Numerical Simulation to EGS: Examples from the EGS Collab Test Bed 1

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, located at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper reviews specific numerical simulations supporting the design of experiments within Test Bed 1, a volume of phyllite rock under in-situ stress conditions off the western side of the West Access Drift on the 4850 Level, near Governor’s Corner. Numerical simulations were executed prior to the start of hydraulic stimulation activities within Test Bed 1 following standard practices, using best estimates of principal stress conditions, thermal conditions, and the rock petrophysical properties, including geomechanical properties. These simulations indicated notching of the borehole would promote the initiation of transverse fractures, seismic magnitudes during the hydraulic stimulation would be below 0.1 magnitude on the Richter scale, a rock thermal conductivity of 5.0 W/m K yielded agreement with kISMET borehole temperature logs, back pressure on the production borehole would increase circulation across the test bed, and the production borehole would serve to halt propagation of the hydraulic fracture to the drift. Pre-existing natural fractures, heterogeneities in the rock properties, monitoring boreholes, and overlooked mine elements have prompted a second look at numerically modeling stimulation, fluid circulation, tracer migration, and thermal breakthrough. Numerical simulation is an invaluable tool for providing insight and understanding to complex physical processes. The success of simulations, however, often depends on including all of the salient features of the system in the founding conceptual model. This paper takes a retrospective look at examples where the conceptual model and simulation was sufficient to provide accurate forecasts and those where elements were missing, necessitating rethinking of the simulation.

numerical simulation, EGS Collab, enhanced geother↗

Critical evaluation of Jet-A spray combustion using propane chemical kinetics in gas turbine combustion simulated by KIVA-2

Jet-A spray combustion has been evaluated in gas turbine combustion with the use of propane chemical kinetics as the first approximation for the chemical reactions. Here, the numerical solutions are obtained by using the KIVA-2 computer code. The KIVA-2 code is the most developed of the available multidimensional combustion computer programs for application of the in-cylinder combustion dynamics of internal combustion engines. The released version of KIVA-2 assumes that 12 chemical species are present; the code uses an Arrhenius kinetic-controlled combustion model governed by a four-step global chemical reaction and six equilibrium reactions. Researchers efforts involve the addition of Jet-A thermophysical properties and the implementation of detailed reaction mechanisms for propane oxidation. Three different detailed reaction mechanism models are considered. The first model consists of 131 reactions and 45 species. This is considered as the full mechanism which is developed through the study of chemical kinetics of propane combustion in an enclosed chamber. The full mechanism is evaluated by comparing calculated ignition delay times with available shock tube data. However, these detailed reactions occupy too much computer memory and CPU time for the computation. Therefore, it only serves as a benchmark case by which to evaluate other simplified models. Two possible simplified models were tested in the existing computer code KIVA-2 for the same conditions as used with the full mechanism. One model is obtained through a sensitivity analysis using LSENS, the general kinetics and sensitivity analysis program code of D. A. Bittker and K. Radhakrishnan. This model consists of 45 chemical reactions and 27 species. The other model is based on the work published by C. K. Westbrook and F. L. Dryer.

Nguyen, H. L.↗

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗