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Exploring an Ensemble-Based Approach to Atmospheric Climate Modeling and Testing at Scale
A strict throughput requirement has placed a cap on the degree to which we can depend on the execution of single, long, fine spatial grid simulations to explore global atmospheric climate behavior. Alternatively, running an ensemble of short simulations is computationally more efficient. We test the null hypothesis that the climate statistics of a full-complexity atmospheric model derived from an ensemble of independent short simulation is equivalent to that from an equilibrated long simulation. The climate of short simulation ensembles is statistically distinguishable from that of a long simulation in terms of the distribution of global annual means, largely due to the presence of low-frequency atmospheric intrinsic variability in the long simulation. We also find that model climate statistics of the simulation ensemble are sensitive to the choice of compiler optimizations. While some answer-changing optimization choices do not effect the climate state in terms of mean, variability and extremes, aggressive optimizations can result in significantly different climate states.
A Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT): Part II. The cloudy-sky model
The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT) reported in Part I of this report is enhanced to include the requirements for cloudy-sky conditions. Surface radiances in 2002 narrow-wavelength bands from 0.28 to 4.0 um are analytically computed by solving the radiative transfer equation for five independent photon paths accounting for clear-sky absorption, Rayleigh scattering, and cloud absorption and scattering. The Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine (SMARTS) is used to show the optical thickness of the clear-sky atmosphere. Unlike Part I, which approximates the computation of aerosol scattering using the single-scattering phase function, the cloud transmittance and reflectance are efficiently retrieved from a comprehensive look-up table pre-computed by a 32-stream DIScrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT) model for possible cloud conditions as well as solar and viewing geometries. A resolution assessment is performed to observe the optimal balance between the computational efficiency and accuracy in the development of the look-up table. Model simulations by DISORT and TMYSPEC are used to evaluate the performance of FARMS-NIT under cloudy-sky conditions. Compared to DISORT, FARMS-NIT yields 2-3% uncertainties on average, but it substantially reduces the computational time because of the independent computation of cloud properties and the implementation of the look-up table. In contrast to TMYSPEC, which uses successive steps to empirically compute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances and spectral irradiances, FARMS-NIT directly solves spectral radiances from the radiative transfer equation, which profoundly increases the accuracy in surface irradiances, especially over inclined photovoltaics (PV) panels.
Modelling of parallel dynamics of a pellet-produced plasmoid
The parallel expansion of a dense, pellet-produced plasmoid is modelled with parameters relevant to pellet fuelling experiments in the Wendelstein7-X stellarator. Good agreement is found between the analytical theory and more detailed modelling. In particular, much of the energy deposited in the pellet by the ambient plasma is transferred to the pellet ions by the ambipolar electric field during the expansion. The validity of the hydrodynamic treatment of the plasmoid and the ambient plasma is discussed.
Multistage Surface-Heated Vacuum Membrane Distillation Process Enables High Water Recovery and Excellent Heat Utilization: A Modeling Study
Surface-heated membrane distillation (MD) enhances the energy efficiency of desalination by mitigating temperature polarization (TP). However, systematic investigations of larger scale, multistage, surface-heated MD system with high water recovery and heat recycling are limited. Here, we explore the design and performance of a multistage surface-heated vacuum MD (SHVMD) with heat recovery through a comprehensive finite difference model. In this process, the latent heat of condensation is recovered through an internal heat exchanger (HX) using the retentate from one stage as the condensing fluid for the next stage and an external HX using the feed as the condensing fluid. Model results show that surface heating enhances the performance compared to conventional vacuum MD (VMD). Specifically, in a six-stage SHVMD process, 54.44% water recovery and a gained output ratio (GOR) of 3.28 are achieved with a surface heat density of 2000 W m –2 , whereas a similar six-stage VMD process only reaches 18.19% water recovery and a GOR of 2.15. Mass and energy balances suggest that by mitigating TP, surface heating increases the latent heat trapped in vapor. The internal and external HXs capture and reuse the additional heat, which enhances the GOR values. We show for SHVMD that the hybrid internal/external heat recovery design can have GOR value 1.44 times higher than that of systems with only internal or external heat recovery. Furthermore, by only increasing six stages to eight stages, a GOR value as high as 4.35 is achieved. The results further show that surface heating can reduce the energy consumption of MD for brine concentration. As a result, the multistage SHVMD technology exhibits a promising potential for the management of brine from industrial plants.
Surfactant-Specific AI-Driven Molecular Design: Integrating Generative Models, Predictive Modeling, and Reinforcement Learning for Tailored Surfactant Synthesis
Molecular design is a critical aspect of various scientific and industrial fields, where the properties of molecules hold significant importance. In this study, a 3-fold methodology design is presented that leverages the power of generative artificial intelligence (AI), predictive modeling, and reinforcement learning to create tailored molecules with desired properties. This model synergistically combines deep learning techniques with Self-Referencing Embedded Strings (SELFIES) molecular representation to build a generative model that generates valid molecules and a graphical neural network model that accurately forecasts molecular properties. The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) coupled with reinforcement learning helps refine molecule generation based on targeted attributes. Data from an experimental study involving surfactants were used to test the framework. A validation of the structural integrity of the molecules generated was conducted, and Tanimoto similarities were used to quantify the similarity and diversity between the original and generated molecular structures. Also, saliency maps for the generated surfactants were produced to identify the features explaining the property values. Lastly, molecular dynamics simulations were used to validate the stability of the generated molecules. The results showed that the proposed framework can effectively produce valid molecules within the set property threshold value.
Confirmation of the PPLB Derivative Discontinuity: Exact Chemical Potential at Finite Temperatures of a Model System
The landmark 1982 paper of Perdew, Parr, Levy, and Balduz (often called PPLB) laid the foundation for our modern understanding of the role of the derivative discontinuity in density functional theory, which drives much development to account for its effects. A simple model for the chemical potential at vanishing temperature played a crucial role in their argument. We investigate the validity of this model in the simplest non-trivial system to which it can be applied and which can be easily solved exactly, the Hubbard dimer. We find exact agreement in the crucial zero-temperature limit, and show the model remains accurate for a significant range of temperatures. We identify how this range depends on the strength of correlations. We extend the model to approximate free energies accounting for the derivative discontinuity, a feature missing in standard semilocal approximations. Here, we provide a correction to this approximation to yield even more accurate free energies. We discuss the relevance of these results for warm dense matter.
Modeling Pb(II) Adsorption on Mineral Surfaces: Bridging Density Functional Theory and Experiment with Thermodynamic Insights
Despite decades of work on aqueous lead (Pb) adsorption on a-Fe2O3 (hematite) and a-Al2O3 (alumina), gaps between measurements and modeling obscure molecular-level understanding. Achieving well-matched geometries between theory and experimental for mineral-water interfaces is a hurdle, as surface functional group type and distribution must be accounted for in determining mechanisms. Additionally, computational methods that can describe the substrate are often not appropriate to capture aqueous effects. Progress requires focusing on well-studied and relevant systems, such as key facets (001),(012), and (110) of hematite and alumina, and ubiquitous contaminants such as aqueous Pb. In the past, bulk-parametrized bond-valence principles were used to rationalize Pb(II) adsorption trends. These approaches can break down at surfaces, where flexible bonding environments and adsorption-induced surface relaxations play a critical role. Here, we adapt and apply a density functional theory (DFT) and thermodynamics framework, integrating DFT-calculated energies with experimental data and electrochemical principles, to predict Pb(II) adsorption. Our model results capture trends across the full set of surfaces and predict that inner-sphere Pb(II) sorption on (001) alumina varies from unfavorable to weakly favorable across a range of pH conditions. This aligns with experiment insights that Pb(II) interacts at that surface through outer-sphere interactions. Extending to Fe(II) adsorption, we demonstrate a coverage-dependent site preference, potentially explaining disorder in overlayers grown by the oxidative adsorption of Fe(II) on hematite (001).
Modeling Electron Injection at Semiconductor–Molecule Interfaces using First-Principles Dynamics Simulation: Effects of Nonadiabatic Coupling, Self-energy, and Surface Models
Excited electron transfer across semiconductor–molecule heterogeneous interfaces is central to various future electronic and optoelectronic devices. At the same time, first-principles modeling of such dynamical processes remains as a great challenge in theoretical chemistry and condensed matter physics for developing better understanding at the molecular scale. Excited electron transfer from a molecule to semiconductor surface is a particularly difficult case to model accurately, because the initial state of such an electron injection process often lies deep within the dense manifold of the conduction band states in the semiconductor. Nonadiabatic couplings and energy level alignments at such interfaces as well as the finite size error of the surface model all play important roles in numerical modeling of electron injection via first-principles theory. Here, using representative interfaces between a well-defined hydrogen-terminated Si(111) surface and series of covalently adsorbed conjugated molecules, we investigate the extent to which these theoretical and numerical considerations influence the description of electron injection at the semiconductor–molecule interface.
General Kinetic Model for pH Dependence of Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer: Application to an Electrochemical Water Oxidation System
The pH dependence of proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions, which are critical to many chemical and biological processes, is a powerful probe for elucidating their fundamental mechanisms. Herein, a general, multichannel kinetic model is introduced to describe the pH dependence of both homogeneous and electrochemical PCET reactions. According to this model, a weak pH dependence can arise from the competition among multiple sequential and concerted PCET channels involving different forms of the redox species, such as protonated and deprotonated forms, as well as different proton donors and acceptors. The contribution of each channel is influenced by the relative populations of the reactant species, which often depend strongly on pH, leading to complex pH dependence of PCET apparent rate constants. This model is used to explain the origins of the experimentally observed weak pH dependence of the electrochemical PCET apparent rate constant for a ruthenium-based water oxidation catalyst attached to a tin-doped In2O3 (ITO) surface. The weak pH dependence is found to arise from the intrinsic differences in the rate constants of participating channels and the dependence of their relative contributions on pH. This model predicts that the apparent maximum rate constant will become pH-independent at higher pH, which is confirmed by experimental measurements. Our analysis also suggests that the dominant channels are electron transfer at lower pH and sequential PCET via electron transfer followed by fast proton transfer at higher pH. Furthermore, this work highlights the importance of considering multiple competing channels simultaneously for PCET processes.
Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework
Abstract To assess the effect of uncertainties in solar wind driving on the predictions from the operational configuration of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, we have developed a nonparametric method for generating multiple possible realizations of the solar wind just upstream of the bow shock, based on observations near the first Lagrangian point. We have applied this method to the solar wind inputs at the upstream boundary of Space Weather Modeling Framework and have simulated the geomagnetic storm of 5 April 2010. We ran a 40‐member ensemble for this event and have used this ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted Sym‐H index and ground magnetic disturbances due to the uncertainty in the upstream boundary conditions. Both the ensemble mean and the unperturbed simulation tend to underpredict the magnitude of Sym‐H in the quiet interval before the storm and overpredict in the storm itself, consistent with previous work. The ensemble mean is a more accurate predictor of Sym‐H, improving the mean absolute error by nearly 2 nT for this interval and displaying a smaller bias. We also examine the uncertainty in predicted maxima in ground magnetic disturbances. The confidence intervals are typically narrow during periods where the predicted d B H /d t is low. The confidence intervals are often much wider where the median prediction is for enhanced d B H /d t . The ensemble also allows us to identify intervals of activity that cannot be explained by uncertainty in the solar wind driver, driving further model improvements. This work demonstrates the feasibility and importance of ensemble modeling for space weather applications.
Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model
Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.
Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets
The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).
Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of “Middle Atmosphere” Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))
Abstract Simulating whole atmosphere dynamics, chemistry, and physics is computationally expensive. It can require high vertical resolution throughout the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as a comprehensive chemistry and aerosol scheme coupled to radiation physics. An unintentional outcome of the development of one of the most sophisticated and hence computationally expensive model configurations is that it often excludes a broad community of users with limited computational resources. Here, we analyze two configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) with simplified “middle atmosphere” chemistry at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolutions. Using observations, a reanalysis, and direct model comparisons, we find that these configurations generally reproduce the climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of the 1° nominal horizontal resolution configuration with comprehensive chemistry. While the background stratospheric aerosol optical depth is elevated in the middle atmosphere configurations as compared to the comprehensive chemistry configuration, it is comparable among all configurations during volcanic eruptions. For any purposes other than those needing an accurate representation of tropospheric organic chemistry and secondary organic aerosols, these simplified chemistry configurations deliver reliable simulations of the whole atmosphere that require 35% and 86% fewer computational resources at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolution, respectively.
Automated Symbolic Upscaling: 1. Model Generation for Extended Applicability Regimes
Abstract In porous media theory, upscaling techniques are fundamental to deriving rigorous Darcy‐scale models for flow and reactive transport in subsurface systems. Due to limitations in classical techniques, a number of ad hoc approaches have been proposed to address physical regimes in which reactive time scales are similar to, or faster than, diffusive time scales. In Part 1 of this two part series, we present a strategy for expanding the applicability of classical homogenization theory by generalizing the assumed closure form. We detail the implementation of this strategy on two reactive mass transport problems with moderately reactive physics. The strategy produces nontrivial homogenized models with emergent terms and effective parameters that couple reactive, diffusive, and advective transport. The differences in equation forms between the macroscopic and pore‐scale descriptions advise caution to further studies where the forms of macroscopic equations are assumed, as opposed to rigorously derived. Numerical validation is provided for each problem to show that the error estimates of homogenization theory are satisfied, and to justify the implemented strategy. In Part 2, the presented strategy is automated using symbolic computing to expedite its implementation.
FunDiff: diffusion models over function spaces for physics-informed generative modeling
Recent advances in generative modeling-particularly diffusion models and flow matching-have been widely used for synthesizing discrete data such as images and videos. However, adapting these models to physical applications remains challenging, as the quantities of interest are continuous functions governed by complex physical laws. To address this, we introduce FunDiff, an efficient and robust framework for generative modeling in function spaces. FunDiff combines a latent diffusion process with a function autoencoder architecture to handle input functions with varying discretizations, generates continuous functions that can be evaluated at arbitrary locations, and seamlessly incorporate physical priors. These priors are enforced through architectural constraints or physics-informed loss functions, ensuring that generated samples satisfy fundamental physical laws. We theoretically establish minimax optimality guarantees for density estimation in function spaces, demonstrating that diffusion-based estimators achieve optimal convergence rates under suitable regularity conditions. We further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of FunDiff across diverse applications in fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. Empirical results indicate that our method can generate physically consistent samples with high fidelity to the target distribution, and exhibit robustness to noisy and low-resolution data.