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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Given the reality of anthropogenic global warming, it is tempting to seek an anthropogenic component in any recent change in the statistics of extreme weather. This paper cautions that such efforts may, however, lead to wrong conclusions if the distinctively skewed and heavy-tailed aspects of the probability distributions of daily weather anomalies are ignored or misrepresented. Departures of several standard deviations from the mean, although rare, are far more common in such a distinctively non-Gaussian world than they are in a Gaussian world. This further complicates the problem of detecting changes in tail probabilities from historical records of limited length and accuracy. A possible solution is to exploit the fact that the salient non-Gaussian features of the observed distributions are captured by so-called stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distributions that include Gaussian distributions as special cases. SGS distributions are associated with damped linear Markov processes perturbed by asymmetric stochastic noise and as such represent the simplest physically based prototypes of the observed distributions. The tails of SGS distributions can also be directly linked to generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The Markov process model can be used to provide rigorous confidence intervals and to investigate temporal persistence statistics. The procedure is illustrated for assessing changes in the observed distributions of daily wintertime indices of large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors over the period 1872–2011. No significant changes in these indices are found from the first to the second half of the period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Composite Cure Process Modeling and Simulations using COMPRO(Registered Trademark) and Validation of Residual Strains using Fiber Optics Sensors

Composite cure process induced residual strains and warping deformations in composite components present significant challenges in the manufacturing of advanced composite structure. As a part of the Manufacturing Process and Simulation initiative of the NASA Advanced Composite Project (ACP), research is being conducted on the composite cure process by developing an understanding of the fundamental mechanisms by which the process induced factors influence the residual responses. In this regard, analytical studies have been conducted on the cure process modeling of composite structural parts with varied physical, thermal, and resin flow process characteristics. The cure process simulation results were analyzed to interpret the cure response predictions based on the underlying physics incorporated into the modeling tool. In the cure-kinetic analysis, the model predictions on the degree of cure, resin viscosity and modulus were interpreted with reference to the temperature distribution in the composite panel part and tool setup during autoclave or hot-press curing cycles. In the fiber-bed compaction simulation, the pore pressure and resin flow velocity in the porous media models, and the compaction strain responses under applied pressure were studied to interpret the fiber volume fraction distribution predictions. In the structural simulation, the effect of temperature on the resin and ply modulus, and thermal coefficient changes during curing on predicted mechanical strains and chemical cure shrinkage strains were studied to understand the residual strains and stress response predictions. In addition to computational analysis, experimental studies were conducted to measure strains during the curing of laminated panels by means of optical fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBGs) embedded in the resin impregnated panels. The residual strain measurements from laboratory tests were then compared with the analytical model predictions. The paper describes the cure process procedures and residual strain predications, and discusses pertinent experimental results from the validation studies.

Sreekantamurthy, Thammaiah↗
NASA NTRS1999

En route Spacing Tool: Efficient Conflict-free Spacing to Flow-Restricted Airspace

This paper describes the Air Traffic Management (ATM) problem within the U.S. of flow-restricted en route airspace, an assessment of its impact on airspace users, and a set of near-term tools and procedures to resolve the problem. The FAA is committed, over the next few years, to deploy the first generation of modem ATM decision support tool (DST) technology under the Free-Flight Phase-1 (FFp1) program. The associated en route tools include the User Request Evaluation Tool (URET) and the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). URET is an initial conflict probe (ICP) capability that assists controllers with the detection and resolution of conflicts in en route airspace. TMA orchestrates arrivals transitioning into high-density terminal airspace by providing controllers with scheduled times of arrival (STA) and delay feedback advisories to assist with STA conformance. However, these FFPl capabilities do not mitigate the en route Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restrictions that are dynamically applied to mitigate airspace congestion. National statistics indicate that en route facilities (Centers) apply Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restrictions for approximately 5000 hours per month. Based on results from this study, an estimated 45,000 flights are impacted by these restrictions each month. Current-day practices for implementing these restrictions result in additional controller workload and an economic impact of which the fuel penalty alone may approach several hundred dollars per flight. To mitigate much of the impact of these restrictions on users and controller workload, a DST and procedures are presented. The DST is based on a simple derivative of FFP1 technology that is designed to introduce a set of simple tools for flow-rate (spacing) conformance and integrate them with conflict-probe capabilities. The tool and associated algorithms are described based on a concept prototype implemented within the CTAS baseline in 1995. A traffic scenario is used to illustrate the controller's use of the tool, and potential display options are presented for future controller evaluation.

Green, S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Versatile Lifting Device for Lunar Surface Payload Handling, Inspection and Regolith Transport Operations

Devices for lifting and transporting payloads and material are critical for efficient Earth-based construction operations. Devices with similar functionality will be needed to support lunar-outpost construction, servicing, inspection, regolith excavation, grading and payload placement. Past studies have proposed that only a few carefully selected devices are required for a lunar outpost. One particular set of operations involves lifting and manipulating payloads in the 100 kg to 3,000 kg range, which are too large or massive to be handled by unassisted astronauts. This paper will review historical devices used for payload handling in space and on earth to derive a set of desirable features for a device that can be used on planetary surfaces. Next, an innovative concept for a lifting device is introduced, which includes many of the desirable features. The versatility of the device is discussed, including its application to lander unloading, servicing, inspection, regolith excavation and site preparation. Approximate rules, which can be used to size the device for specific payload mass and reach requirements, are provided. Finally, details of a test-bed implementation of the innovative concept, which will be used to validate the structural design and develop operational procedures, is provided.

Doggett, William R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Mass Computation Model for Lightweight Brayton Cycle Regenerator Heat Exchangers

Based on a theoretical analysis of convective heat transfer across large internal surface areas, this paper discusses the design implications for generating lightweight gas-gas heat exchanger designs by packaging such areas into compact three-dimensional shapes. Allowances are made for hot and cold inlet and outlet headers for assembly of completed regenerator (or recuperator) heat exchanger units into closed cycle gas turbine flow ducting. Surface area and resulting volume and mass requirements are computed for a range of heat exchanger effectiveness values and internal heat transfer coefficients. Benefit cost curves show the effect of increasing heat exchanger effectiveness on Brayton cycle thermodynamic efficiency on the plus side, while also illustrating the cost in heat exchanger required surface area, volume, and mass requirements as effectiveness is increased. The equations derived for counterflow and crossflow configurations show that as effectiveness values approach unity, or 100 percent, the required surface area, and hence heat exchanger volume and mass tend toward infinity, since the implication is that heat is transferred at a zero temperature difference. To verify the dimensional accuracy of the regenerator mass computational procedure, calculation of a regenerator specific mass, that is, heat exchanger weight per unit working fluid mass flow, is performed in both English and SI units. Identical numerical values for the specific mass parameter, whether expressed in lb/(lb/sec) or kg/(kg/sec), show the dimensional consistency of overall results.

Juhasz, Albert J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Mass Computation Model for Lightweight Brayton Cycle Regenerator Heat Exchangers

Based on a theoretical analysis of convective heat transfer across large internal surface areas, this paper discusses the design implications for generating lightweight gas-gas heat exchanger designs by packaging such areas into compact three-dimensional shapes. Allowances are made for hot and cold inlet and outlet headers for assembly of completed regenerator (or recuperator) heat exchanger units into closed cycle gas turbine flow ducting. Surface area and resulting volume and mass requirements are computed for a range of heat exchanger effectiveness values and internal heat transfer coefficients. Benefit cost curves show the effect of increasing heat exchanger effectiveness on Brayton cycle thermodynamic efficiency on the plus side, while also illustrating the cost in heat exchanger required surface area, volume, and mass requirements as effectiveness is increased. The equations derived for counterflow and crossflow configurations show that as effectiveness values approach unity, or 100 percent, the required surface area, and hence heat exchanger volume and mass tend toward infinity, since the implication is that heat is transferred at a zero temperature difference. To verify the dimensional accuracy of the regenerator mass computational procedure, calculation of a regenerator specific mass, that is, heat exchanger weight per unit working fluid mass flow, is performed in both English and SI units. Identical numerical values for the specific mass parameter, whether expressed in lb/(lb/sec) or kg/ (kg/sec), show the dimensional consistency of overall results.

Juhasz, Albert J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic approach for capacity credit evaluation of demand response considering both exogenous and endogenous uncertainties

As a featured smart-grid technology, demand response (DR) provides utility companies with unprecedented flexibility to improve the reliability of electricity service in future power systems. However, due to the uncertainties arising from the demand side, the extent to which DR can be utilized for capacity support poses a major question to the utilities. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new methodological framework to assess the potential reliability value of DR in smart grids. The framework is established on the concept of capacity credit (CC), and it accommodates different types of uncertainties (i.e., probabilistic and possibilistic) accrued from physical and anthropogenic factors in DR programs. The capability of DR during operation is considered as a synthesized result of multiple facets, i.e., users' load characteristics, participation levels, and load recoveries, and different models are developed to represent each component. To characterize the stochastic nature of demand responsiveness, the fuzzy theory is introduced, and possibilistic models are proposed to describe the human-related uncertainties under incomplete information. In addition, considering that in reality, DR operation could affect the comfort of customers, the dynamics of demand-side participation have also been incorporated in our study, in which two utility-based indices are defined to quantify the effect of such interdependency. Using a probabilistic propagation technique, the different types of uncertainties involved can be normalized and systematically addressed under the same framework. Then, the relevant models can be applied to the CC evaluation procedures, wherein two dispatching schemes (i.e., reliability-driven and coordinated management) are considered to study the effect of DR operation on its CC. The proposed methodology is tested on a modified RTS system, and the obtained results confirm its effectiveness.

capacity credit↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regionalization of land use impact models for life cycle assessment: Recommendations for their use on the global scale and their applicability to Brazil

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the development or adaptation of regional methodological procedures for Brazil. - Highlights: • A discussion is made on performing regionalized impact assessments using spatial differentiation in LCA. • A review is made of 20 characterization models for land use impacts in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. • Four characterization models are recommended according to different land use impact pathways for application in Brazil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Design of the 1.5 MW, 30-96 MHz ultra-wideband 3 dB high power hybrid coupler for Ion Cyclotron Resonance Frequency (ICRF) heating in fusion grade reactor

Design and developmental procedure of strip-line based 1.5 MW, 30-96 MHz, ultra-wideband high power 3 dB hybrid coupler has been presented and its applicability in ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) in tokamak is discussed. For the high power handling capability, spacing between conductors and ground need to very high. Hence other structural parameters like strip-width, strip thickness coupling gap, and junction also become large which can be gone upto optimum limit where various constrains like fabrication tolerance, discontinuities, and excitation of higher TE and TM modes become prominent and significantly deteriorates the desired parameters of the coupled lines system. In designed hybrid coupler, two 8.34 dB coupled lines are connected in tandem to get desired coupling of 3 dB and air is used as dielectric. The spacing between ground and conductors are taken as 0.164 m for 1.5 MW power handling capability. To have the desired spacing, each of 8.34 dB segments are designed with inner dimension of 3.6 × 1.0 × 40 cm where constraints have been significantly realized, compensated, and applied in designing of 1.5 MW hybrid coupler and presented in paper.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1994

Metabolic Cages for a Space Flight Model in the Rat

A variety of space flight models are available to mimic the physiologic changes seen in the rat during weightlessness. The model reported by Wronski and Morey-Holton has been widely used by many investigators, in musculoskeletal physiologic studies especially, resulting in accumulation of an extensive database that enables scientists to mimic space flight effects in the 1-g environment of Earth. However, information on nutrition or gastrointestinal and renal function in this space flight model is limited by the difficulty in acquiring uncontaminated metabolic specimens for analysis. In the Holton system, a traction tape harness is applied to the tail, and the rat's hindquarters are elevated by attaching the harness to a pulley system. Weight-bearing hind limbs are unloaded, and there is a headward fluid shift. The tail-suspended rats are able to move freely about their cages on their forelimbs and tolerate this procedure with minimal signs of stress. The cage used in Holton's model is basically a clear acrylic box set on a plastic grid floor with the pulley and tail harness system attached to the open top of the cage. Food is available from a square food cup recessed into a corner of the floor. In this system, urine, feces, and spilled food fall through the grid floor onto absorbent paper beneath the cage and cannot be separated and recovered quantitatively for analysis in metabolic balance studies. Commercially available metabolic cages are generally cylindrical and have been used with a centrally located suspension apparatus in other space flight models. The large living area, three times as large as most metabolic cages, and the free range of motion unique to Holton's model, essential for musculoskeletal investigations, were sacrificed. Holton's cages can accommodate animals ranging in weight from 70 to 600 g. Although an alternative construction of Holton's cage has been reported, it does not permit collection of separate urine and fecal samples. We describe the modifications to Holton's food delivery system, cage base, and the addition of a separator system for the collection of urine and fecal samples for metabolic and nutrition studies in the tail suspension model.

Harper, Jennifer S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

LISA Framework for Enhancing Gravitational Wave Signal Extraction Techniques

This paper describes the development of a Framework for benchmarking and comparing signal-extraction and noise-interference-removal methods that are applicable to interferometric Gravitational Wave detector systems. The primary use is towards comparing signal and noise extraction techniques at LISA frequencies from multiple (possibly confused) ,gravitational wave sources. The Framework includes extensive hybrid learning/classification algorithms, as well as post-processing regularization methods, and is based on a unique plug-and-play (component) architecture. Published methods for signal extraction and interference removal at LISA Frequencies are being encoded, as well as multiple source noise models, so that the stiffness of GW Sensitivity Space can be explored under each combination of methods. Furthermore, synthetic datasets and source models can be created and imported into the Framework, and specific degraded numerical experiments can be run to test the flexibility of the analysis methods. The Framework also supports use of full current LISA Testbeds, Synthetic data systems, and Simulators already in existence through plug-ins and wrappers, thus preserving those legacy codes and systems in tact. Because of the component-based architecture, all selected procedures can be registered or de-registered at run-time, and are completely reusable, reconfigurable, and modular.

Thompson, David E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Additional Results of Glaze Icing Scaling in SLD Conditions

New guidance of acceptable means of compliance with the super-cooled large drops (SLD) conditions has been issued by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in its Advisory Circular AC 25-28 in November 2014. The Part 25, Appendix O is developed to define a representative icing environment for super-cooled large drops. Super-cooled large drops, which include freezing drizzle and freezing rain conditions, are not included in Appendix C. This paper reports results from recent glaze icing scaling tests conducted in NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) to evaluate how well the scaling methods recommended for Appendix C conditions might apply to SLD conditions. The models were straight NACA 0012 wing sections. The reference model had a chord of 72 in. and the scale model had a chord of 21 in. Reference tests were run with airspeeds of 100 and 130.3 kn and with MVD's of 85 and 170 micron. Two scaling methods were considered. One was based on the modified Ruff method with scale velocity found by matching the Weber number WeL. The other was proposed and developed by Feo specifically for strong glaze icing conditions, in which the scale liquid water content and velocity were found by matching reference and scale values of the nondimensional water-film thickness expression and the film Weber number Wef. All tests were conducted at 0 deg AOA. Results will be presented for stagnation freezing fractions of 0.2 and 0.3. For nondimensional reference and scale ice shape comparison, a new post-scanning ice shape digitization procedure was developed for extracting 2-D ice shape profiles at any selected span-wise location from the high fidelity 3-D scanned ice shapes obtained in the IRT.

SLD↗
DOE OSTI2015

Structural properties of a bone-ceramic composite as a promising material in spinal surgery

The paper describes the results of in vitro tests of composite bone-ceramic implants and procedures for modifying implant surfaces to enhance osteogenesis. Analysis of CBCI ESs demonstrated that they have a porous structure with the mean longitudinal pore size of 70 µm and the mean transverse pore size of 46 µm; surface pores are open, while inner pores are closed. Elemental analysis of the CBCI surface demonstrates that CBCIs are composed of aluminum and zirconium oxides and contain HA inclusions. Profilometry of the CBCI ES surface revealed the following deviations: the maximum deviation of the profile in the sample center is 15 µm and 16 µm on the periphery, while the arithmetical mean and mean square deviations of the profile are 2.65 and 3.4 µm, respectively. In addition, CBCI biodegradation products were pre-examined; a 0.9% NaCl solution was used as a comparison group. Potentially toxic and tissue accumulated elements, such as cadmium, cobalt, mercury, and lead, are present only in trace amounts and have no statistically significant differences with the comparison group, which precludes their potential toxic effects on the macroorganism. Ceramic-based CBCI may be effective and useful in medicine for restoration of the anatomic integrity and functions of the bone tissue.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1995

Capturing the Value: Earth Applications of Space Human Factors Research

This paper details how the Space Human Factors/Life Sciences program at Ames Research Center (ARC) has provided, and continues to provide, a variety of Earth-based benefits. These benefits will be considered under five categories: aeronautics, space-like environments, general applications, human/automation interaction, and methodology. The human factors work at ARC includes a range of activities whose products serve the aerospace community. Some areas of research focus specifically on aeronautical requirements; others are driven by space needs. However, the symbiosis between these two domains allows a sharing of resources, and the insights and experimental results gathered in one domain can often be applied in the other. Aeronautics is an industry whose survival is generally viewed as critical to American competitiveness, and where benefits can result in a very high payoff. The ability to apply space-initiated research to aeronautical requirements represents one example of bringing space benefits down to Earth. The second-order value of space human factors research goes well beyond the aerospace community. Spaceflight shares with a number of other activities certain environmental characteristics that drive human factors engineering design and procedural specification. Spaceflight is an isolated activity, conducted under severely confined conditions, with a high level of risk, and where provisions are restricted and opportunities for outside help are limited. A number of Earth-based activities including submarines and other naval vessels, oil rigs, remote weather stations, and scientific and polar expeditions, share many of these characteristics. These activities serve as testbeds for space-related research and, in turn, space-related research provides beneficial insight to the conduct of these activities.

Connors, Mary M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Aircraft Simulation Role in Improving Flight Safety Through Control Room Training

NASA Dryden Flight Research Center uses its six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) fixed-base simulations for mission control room training to improve flight safety and operations. This concept is applied to numerous flight projects such as the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV), the F-15 Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS), the X-38 Actuator Control Test (XACT), and X-43A (Hyper-X). The Dryden 6-DOF simulations are typically used through various stages of a project, from design to ground tests. The roles of these simulations have expanded to support control room training, reinforcing flight safety by building control room staff proficiency. Real-time telemetry, radar, and video data are generated from flight vehicle simulation models. These data are used to drive the control room displays. Nominal static values are used to complete information where appropriate. Audio communication is also an integral part of training sessions. This simulation capability is used to train control room personnel and flight crew for nominal missions and emergency situations. Such training sessions are also opportunities to refine flight cards and control room display pages, exercise emergency procedures, and practice control room setup for the day of flight. This paper describes this technology as it is used in the X-43A and F-15 IFCS and XACT projects.

Shy, Karla S.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Sample preparation and biomass determination of SRF model mixture using cryogenic milling and the adapted balance method

Highlights: • An alternative sample comminution procedure for SRF is tested. • Proof of principle is shown on a SRF model mixture. • The biogenic content of the SRF is analyzed with the adapted balance method. • The novel method combines combustion analysis and a data reconciliation algorithm. • Factors for the variance of the analysis results are statistically quantified. - Abstract: The biogenic fraction of a simple solid recovered fuel (SRF) mixture (80 wt% printer paper/20 wt% high density polyethylene) is analyzed with the in-house developed adapted balance method (aBM). This fairly new approach is a combination of combustion elemental analysis (CHNS) and a data reconciliation algorithm based on successive linearisation for evaluation of the analysis results. This method shows a great potential as an alternative way to determine the biomass content in SRF. However, the employed analytical technique (CHNS elemental analysis) restricts the probed sample mass to low amounts in the range of a few hundred milligrams. This requires sample comminution to small grain sizes (<200 μm) to generate representative SRF specimen. This is not easily accomplished for certain material mixtures (e.g. SRF with rubber content) by conventional means of sample size reduction. This paper presents a proof of principle investigation of the sample preparation and analysis of an SRF model mixture with the use of cryogenic impact milling (final sample comminution) and the adapted balance method (determination of biomass content). The so derived sample preparation methodology (cutting mills and cryogenic impact milling) shows a better performance in accuracy and precision for the determination of the biomass content than one solely based on cutting mills. The results for the determination of the biogenic fraction are within 1–5% of the data obtained by the reference methods, selective dissolution method (SDM) and {sup 14}C-method ({sup 14}C-M)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

Prognostics has taken a center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of the system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically four algorithms namely; Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR) are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in different manner and depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, these metrics offer ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized. 1

Saxena, Abhinav↗