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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Upgrading of Wastewater-Grown Microalgae: 2021 State of Technology

The fiscal year (FY) 2021 State of Technology (SOT) Assessment for the hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wastewater (WW)-grown microalgae and biocrude upgrading system was completed and reported here. An industrial partner, Gross-Wen Technologies (GWT), provided algae feedstock cultivated on a revolving algal biofilm (RAB) system by using the primary effluent from a water resource recovery facility (WRRF). This provided algae was tested at PNNL for HTL processing. The experimental results provided the major design basis of the HTL process of the SOT baseline case. The primary effluent of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District (MWRD) of Greater Chicago was assumed to be the nutrients source for algae growth and the algae yield data per gallon wastewater provided by GWT were used to estimate the total algae production rate and thus the HTL conversion plant scale. Considering different cultivation technologies and wastewater streams with different flow rates and nutrients contents can be used to produce algae, this SOT assessment just provided an example case study for WW-grown algae based HTL conversion to fuels systems. A preliminary economic analysis was developed based on process simulation results. Sensitivity analysis was implemented to evaluate cost impacts of plant scales, potential cost improvements and other key factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Computer-aided communication satellite system analysis and optimization

The capabilities and limitations of the various published computer programs for fixed/broadcast communication satellite system synthesis and optimization are discussed. A satellite Telecommunication analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) for costing and sensitivity analysis work in application of communication satellites to educational development is given. The modifications made to STAMP include: extension of the six beam capability to eight; addition of generation of multiple beams from a single reflector system with an array of feeds; an improved system costing to reflect the time value of money, growth in earth terminal population with time, and to account for various measures of system reliability; inclusion of a model for scintillation at microwave frequencies in the communication link loss model; and, an updated technological environment.

Stagl, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Taylor, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Performance Assessment of a Generic Nuclear Waste Repository in Shale - 18392

A performance assessment (PA) is an important component of a comprehensive safety analysis for a nuclear waste repository. In a PA, probabilistic simulations of the total repository system are performed, and results are evaluated against performance metrics. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses help prioritize additional research and model development. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing a state of the art PA simulation software tool-kit, Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework, that couples increasingly higher fidelity models of subsystem processes into total system PA simulations. Over the past several years, PAs of generic repositories in three geologic media (salt, shale, and crystalline rock) have demonstrated ongoing developments in capability. The current PA of a nuclear waste repository in a generic shale formation showcases GDSA Framework, including capabilities in domain discretization (Cubit), multi-physics simulations (PFLOTRAN), uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (Dakota), and visualization (Paraview). The generic shale reference case considers the disposal of 22,000 metric tons heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a generic shale formation. PA simulations account for the thermal load and radionuclide inventory of the waste form, components of the engineered barrier system including waste package and buffer, and components of the natural barrier system including the host rock shale and underlying and overlying stratigraphic units. Two repository layouts are considered, one for emplacement of waste packages containing 12 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies, and one for 4-PWR waste package emplacement. Model domains are half-symmetry and contain between 7 and 22 million grid cells. Grid refinement captures the detail of individual waste packages, emplacement drifts, access drifts, and shafts. Simulations are run in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment on 512 or 2048 processes. The governing equations describing coupled heat and fluid flow and reactive transport are solved with PFLOTRAN, an open-source, massively parallel multiphase flow and reactive transport code. Additional simulated processes include waste package degradation; waste form dissolution; radioactive decay and ingrowth in aqueous, solid, and adsorbed phases; and a simple biosphere based on a pumping well. Simulations are run to 106 y; dose and radionuclide concentrations are observed within aquifers at a point approximately 5 km downgradient of the repository. Dakota is used to sample likely ranges of input parameters including waste form and waste package degradation rates and properties of engineered and natural materials to quantify uncertainty in predicted concentrations and sensitivity to input parameters. Given the assumptions of the reference case, results of 12-PWR and 4-PWR simulations are very similar. Dose at the pumping well 5-km downgradient of the repository does not exceed 10-9 Sv/y. I-129 is the largest contributor to dose. The dose due to Cl-36, the next largest contributor, is orders of magnitude smaller. At the pumping well, the concentration of I-129 5-km downgradient does not exceed 10-14 mol/L. Rank correlation coefficients indicate that the maximum concentration of I-129 within the aquifer is sensitive to shale (repository host rock) porosity and aquifer permeability. These results affirm that HPC-capable codes can be used to simulate important multi-physics couplings directly in a total system performance assessment of a geologic repository, and can be used in prioritization of future research and model development. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

SHOCK TUBE IGNITION STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS FOR MEDIUM AND HEAVY-DUTY TRANSPORTATION

Currently extensive research on alternative fuels is being conducted due to their increasing demand to reduce greenhouse emissions. One renewable fuel studied in this work is dimethyl ether (DME) blended with propane(C3H8) as a potential mixture for heavy-duty engines used in semi-trucks. The blend has the potential to drastically reduce particulate and greenhouse gas emissions compared to a conventional diesel engine operating under similar conditions. To develop the use of mixture, one must conduct detailed conceptual and simulation studies before progressing to detail studies in CFD, engine modifications, and live testing. For simulations, accurate high-fidelity chemical kinetic models are necessary. However, the validity of the chemical kinetic mechanism for operating conditions of a heavy-duty mixing-controlled compression (MCCI) engine was widely unknown until recent work presented here and published. In this work, we studied the ignition of DME and propane blends in a shock tube under MCCI engine conditions. Ignition delay time (IDT) gathered behind the reflected shock for DME-propane mixtures for heavy-duty compression ignition (CI) engine parameters. Testing was conducted for undiluted varieties spanning from temperatures of 700 to 1100 K at pressures ranging from 55 to 84 bar for various blends (100% CH3OCH3, 100% C3H8, 60% CH3OCH3/ 40% C3H8) of DME and propane were combusted in synthetic air (21% O2/ 79% N2). Several experiments were conducted at higher pressures (90-120 bar) to improve the model performance and accuracy. The ignition delay times (IDTs) were compared to recent mechanisms, including Aramco3.0, NUIG, and Dames et al. A common trend among the mechanisms was overpredicted experimental IDTs. Further studies were conducted by a sensitivity analysis using the Dames et al. model, and critical reactions sensitive to IDTs of DME-propane mixture near 60 bar are outlined. Chemical analysis was conducted on the NTC region to explain chemical kinetics which is critical for developing MCCI heavy duty engines.

Mohammed, Zuhayr Pasha↗
DOE OSTI2022

SCALE Sensitivity Tutorial [Slides]

In sensitivity analysis, we seek to quantify the degree to which fundamental data (i.e., nuclear data) influence a system’s response. In uncertainty analysis, we seek to quantify the degree to which uncertainty in fundamental data contributes to uncertainty in a system’s response. In SCALE, the TSUNAMI suite provides tools for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, similarity analysis, and nuclear data and covariance adjustment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Uncertainty quantification of calculated temperatures for advanced gas reactor fuel irradiation experiments

This paper presents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) fuel irradiation experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technology Research and Development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR tests, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The temperature simulation data for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. To quantify the uncertainty of AGR calculated temperatures, this study identifies and analyzes ABAQUS model parameters of potential importance to the AGR predicted fuel temperatures. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification of the AGR calculated temperatures is based on the ranking of their influences on variation of temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with large uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of AGR calculated temperatures. Expert judgment is used as the basis to specify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperature and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the first-order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, time-dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration was obtained using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain. This allows computation of uncertainty for the predicted peak fuel temperatures and the predicted graphite temperatures at TC locations over the whole AGR irradiation period.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Global Soil Carbon and Soil Microbial Carbon by Integrating Microbial Processes into the Ecosystem Process Model TRIPLEX-GHG

Microbial physiology plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. However, most traditional soil carbon models are lacking in terms of the representation of key microbial processes that control the soil carbon response to global climate change. In this study, the improved process-based model TRIPLEX-GHG was developed by coupling it with the new MEND (Microbial-ENzyme-mediated Decomposition) model to estimate total global soil organic carbon (SOC) and global soil microbial carbon. The new model (TRIPLEX-MICROBE) shows considerable improvement over the previous version (TRIPLEX-GHG) in simulating SOC. We estimated the global soil carbon stock to be approximately 1195 Pg C, with 348 Pg C located in the high northern latitudes, which is in good agreement with the well-regarded Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). We also estimated the global soil microbial carbon to be 21 Pg C, similar to the 23 Pg C estimated. We found that the microbial carbon quantity in the latitudinal direction showed reversions at approximately 30°N, near the equator and at 25°S. A sensitivity analysis suggested that the tundra ecosystem exhibited the highest sensitivity to a 1°C increase or decrease in temperature in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC). Furthermore, our work represents the first step towards a new generation of ecosystem process models capable of integrating key microbial processes into soil carbon cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reaction Mechanism Generator v3.0: Advances in Automatic Mechanism Generation

In chemical kinetics research, kinetic models containing hundreds of species and tens of thousands of elementary reactions are commonly used to understand and predict the behavior of reactive chemical systems. Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) is a software suite developed to automatically generate such models by incorporating and extrapolating from a database of known thermochemical and kinetic parameters. Here, we present the recent version 3 release of RMG and highlight improvements since the previously published description of RMG v1.0. Most notably, RMG can now generate heterogeneous catalysis models in addition to the previously available gas- and liquid-phase capabilities. For model analysis, new methods for local and global uncertainty analysis have been implemented to supplement first-order sensitivity analysis. The RMG database of thermochemical and kinetic parameters has been significantly expanded to cover more types of chemistry. The present release includes parallelization for faster model generation and a new molecule isomorphism approach to improve computational performance. RMG has also been updated to use Python 3, ensuring compatibility with the latest cheminformatics and machine learning packages. Overall, RMG v3.0 includes many changes which improve the accuracy of the generated chemical mechanisms and allow for exploration of a wider range of chemical systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

First principles reaction discovery: from the Schrodinger equation to experimental prediction for methane pyrolysis

Our recent success in exploiting graphical processing units (GPUs) to accelerate quantum chemistry computations led to the development of the ab initio nanoreactor, a computational framework for automatic reaction discovery and kinetic model construction. In this work, we apply the ab initio nanoreactor to methane pyrolysis, from automatic reaction discovery to path refinement and kinetic modeling. Elementary reactions occurring during methane pyrolysis are revealed using GPU-accelerated ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. Subsequently, these reaction paths are refined at a higher level of theory with optimized reactant, product, and transition state geometries. Reaction rate coefficients are calculated by transition state theory based on the optimized reaction paths. The discovered reactions lead to a kinetic model with 53 species and 134 reactions, which is validated against experimental data and simulations using literature kinetic models. We highlight the advantage of leveraging local brute force and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis approaches for efficient identification of important reactions. Both sensitivity approaches can further improve the accuracy of the methane pyrolysis kinetic model. The results in this work demonstrate the power of the ab initio nanoreactor framework for computationally affordable systematic reaction discovery and accurate kinetic modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1991

Management of a CFD organization in support of space hardware development

The management strategy of NASA-Marshall's CFD branch in support of space hardware development and code validation implements various elements of total quality management. The strategy encompasses (1) a teaming strategy which focuses on the most pertinent problem, (2) quick-turnaround analysis, (3) the evaluation of retrofittable design options through sensitivity analysis, and (4) coordination between the chief engineer and the hardware contractors. Advanced-technology concepts are being addressed via the definition of technology-development projects whose products are transferable to hardware programs and the integration of research activities with industry, government agencies, and universities, on the basis of the 'consortium' concept.

Schutzenhofer, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evaluation of GPS/UTC steering performance

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is required to maintain GPS time to Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) to an accuracy of one microsecond and broadcast to the user the offset between GPS and UTC to an accuracy of 100 nanoseconds (1 sigma). On 25 Jun. 1990, an automatic steering algorithm was implemented to control GPS time to synchronize it with UTC. The description of the steering laws and predicted performance results were presented at the 1989 Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) conference, while preliminary performance results were presented at the 1990 PTTI conference. The initial performance was not as predicted, resulting in an in-depth analysis of the observed performance and a more thorough sensitivity analysis. In addition, responses to anomalies were investigated. This paper will describe these analyses and results, and evaluate actual steering performance from Jun. 1990 to Nov. 1991. Although anomalies were observed during the initial phase of steering, recent experience is more in line with expectations.

W. A. Feess↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fast Eruption Desorption Ionization for Mass Spectrometric Analysis

Fast eruption desorption ionization (FEDI) technique was developed for simple, rapid, and sensitive analysis of various compounds. The FEDI allows three analytical modes each with the unique characteristic. The results demonstrated that non-assisted eruption was suitable for stable and volatile compounds, energetic material (EM)-assisted for nonvolatile molecules especially metal compounds, and solvent-assisted eruption for fragile molecules. High-quality mass spectra with intact ions of analytes were obtained in positive and negative ion modes. .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Variance-based sensitivity indices for stochastic models with correlated inputs

The goal of this article is the formulation of the principles of one of the possible strategies in implementing correlation between input random variables so as to be usable for algorithm development and the evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity analysis. With regard to the types of stochastic computational models, which are commonly found in structural mechanics, an algorithm was designed for effective use in conjunction with Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity indices are evaluated for all possible permutations of the decorrelation procedures for input parameters. The evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity coefficients is illustrated on an example in which a computational model was used for the analysis of the resistance of a steel bar in tension with statistically dependent input geometric characteristics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Identifying key factors of the seawater intrusion model of Dagu river basin, Jiaozhou Bay

Highlights: • The key factors of seawater intrusion model is identified by mutual entropy analysis. • Precipitation rate and groundwater pumping are the key factors for seawater intrusion. • The hydraulic conductivity of zone 1 has significant influence on seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is a complex groundwater - seawater interaction process, and it is influenced by many factors from ground surface to underground, from groundwater to seawater. Generally, for seawater intrusion model, some model parameters and boundary conditions are always specified by model users’ personal experiences or literature's reference value. The defective model would damage the groundwater management for controlling and preventing seawater intrusion when making decisions are based on this model. In order to improve the reliability of seawater intrusion model, the influences of model inputs on output should be identified prior at optimizing model inputs. Dagu river basin, Jiaozhou Bay is one of the most serious areas of seawater intrusion in China, and it is chosen as the study area in this study. The seawater intrusion model of Dagu river basin is built based on a general program SEAWAT4. The key influence factors of model output are analyzed by two sensitivity analysis methods, i.e., stepwise regression and mutual entropy. The results demonstrated that the most important influence factors which have largest sensitivities to groundwater Cl{sup -} concentration are the precipitation rate and groundwater pumping in agriculture area. In addition, the hydraulic conductivity of zone 1 has a non-negligible influence on seawater intrusion process. Stepwise regression analysis is capable of identifying most important influence factor, and it can’t handle complicated nonlinear input-output relationship. Mutual entropy analysis is reliable for identifying the influence factors for complex seawater intrusion model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Error analysis for semi-analytic displacement derivatives with respect to shape and sizing variables

Sensitivity analysis is fundamental to the solution of structural optimization problems. Consequently, much research has focused on the efficient computation of static displacement derivatives. As originally developed, these methods relied on analytical representations for the derivatives of the structural stiffness matrix (K) with respect to the design variables (b sub i). To extend these methods for use with complex finite element formulations and facilitate their implementation into structural optimization programs using the general finite element method analysis codes, the semi-analytic method was developed. In this method the matrix the derivative of K/the derivative b sub i is approximated by finite difference. Although it is well known that the accuracy of the semi-analytic method is dependent on the finite difference parameter, recent work has suggested that more fundamental inaccuracies exist in the method when used for shape optimization. Another study has argued qualitatively that these errors are related to nonuniform errors in the stiffness matrix derivatives. The accuracy of the semi-analytic method is investigated. A general framework was developed for the error analysis and then it is shown analytically that the errors in the method are entirely accounted for by errors in delta K/delta b sub i. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that acceptable accuracy in the derivatives can be obtained through careful selection of the finite difference parameter.

Fenyes, Peter A.↗