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NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1971

Average solar wind proton properties from Pioneers 6 and 7.

Distributions and average values for the proton speed, azimuthal and polar flow directions, and the proton temperature and density in the solar wind are presented. The data are obtained from the Ames plasma probes on Pioneers 6 and 7. The time periods covered include Dec. 18, 1965 to mid-February 1966, and mid-August to mid-October 1966. The distributions of the parameters, except for the polar flow direction, are skewed, partially because of stream-stream interactions in the solar wind. The average values of the basic plasma parameters from the two spacecraft are different which could be due partially to different solar activity at the two times, and partially to sector and beam structure dependence.

Mihalov, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Data Assimilation in the Ocean and in the Atmosphere: What Should be Next?

As part of the International Symposium on Assimilation of Observation in Meteorology and Oceanography, a panel discussion was held on the evening of 15 March 1995. The purpose of this panel discussion was focus on what the next major areas of research in data assimilation should be. The panelists had five minutes each for short presentations (Kalman filters, representers, etc.) and this was followed by an open discussion. This preprocessing will require a good understanding of the fine-scale phenomena. Least square methods such as Kalman filters and variational schemes are inefficient estimators of non-Gaussian field such as chemical traces. Regardless of the modeling technique employed (Lagrangian methods seem best), a least squares assimilation scheme will smear fine structure. The estimator of maximum likelihood must be sought, by examination of tracer probability distributions.

Kalnay, Eugenia↗

NASA NTRS2002

A New Method for Estimating the Single Scattering Phase Functions of Regolith Grains

Hapke's photometric model has been widely used in solar system remote sensing applications for nearly two decades. Recently, Hapke extended his model to describe the coherent-backscatter opposition effect and multiple-scattering by particles with anisotropic single particle phase functions (SPPF's). A practical difficulty for retrieving Hapke's model parameters from typical planet, satellite, and asteroid photometry data sets is that the model employs a large number of adjustable parameters (at least eight) that can be reliably constrained only for a small number of planetary data sets in which both disk-resolved and whole-disk observations are available from opposition to very large phase angles. The present work aims to reduce the number of adjustable parameters and preserve (or even enhance) the model's accuracy and usefulness by expressing Hapke's parameters in terms of more fundamental physical properties on which they mutually depend. The most difficult part of this task, described here, is to develop a simple method for computing the effective SPPF for structurally complex regolith grains from optical constants, grain-size distribution, and average regolith porosity. The development of light-scattering models for irregularly shaped particles is a large, complex subject and many sophisticated methods, such as Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) and Monte-Carlo simulations, have been explored elsewhere. Many of these methods are computationally intensive and probably impractical for routine substitution in Hapke's model. Here, progress is reported in developing a practical, semi-empirical method for estimating the directional scattering behavior (i.e. SPPF) of irregular regolith grains. The method employs Optical Transfer Function (OTF) techniques to model how the structural complexity of regolith particles broaden and attenuate the angular distribution of scattered light relative to that expected from ideal spherical particles of equivalent size and composition.

Helfenstein, P.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Fluid Shifts Before, During, and After Prolonged Space Flight and their Association with Intracranial Pressure and Visual Impairment

With the conclusion of the Space Shuttle program, NASA is focusing on long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed in Space Shuttle crewmembers after their short-duration missions were largely transient, but more than 30% of ISS astronauts experience more profound changes in vision, some with objective structural and functional findings such as papilledema and choroidal folds on ophthalmologic examination. Globe flattening, optic nerve sheath dilatation, optic nerve tortuosity, and other findings have been noted in imaging studies. This pattern is referred to as visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. The VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) is associated with the space flight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been systematically tested. The purpose of this study is to objectively characterize the fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration space flight, and to correlate the findings with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during space flight, as well as the VIIP-related effects of those shifts, can be predicted by crewmember baseline data and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations (such as head-down tilt tests) obtained before flight. Lastly, we will evaluate the patterns of fluid distribution in astronaut subjects on the ISS during the use of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) and respiratory maneuvers to characterize and explain general and individual responses during space flight.

Stenger, M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Developing acceptance limits for measured bearing wear of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure oxidizer turbopump

The probabilistic design approach currently receiving attention for structural failure modes has been adapted for obtaining measured bearing wear limits in the Space Shuttle Main Engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump. With the development of the shaft microtravel measurements to determine bearing health, an acceptance limit was neeed that protects against all known faiure modes yet is not overly conservative. This acceptance criteria limit has been successfully determined using probabilistic descriptions of preflight hardware geometry, empirical bearing wear data, mission requirements, and measurement tool precision as an input for a Monte Carlo simulation. The result of the simulation is a frequency distribution of failures as a function of preflight acceptance limits. When the distribution is converted into a reliability curve, a conscious risk management decision is made concerning the acceptance limit.

Genge, Gary G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Toward the detection of pure carbon clusters in the Interstellar Medium (ISM)

Determination of the form and distribution of carbon in the universe is critical to understanding the origin of life on Earth and elsewhere. Two potentially large reservoirs of carbon in the interstellar medium (ISM) remain unexplored. These are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and pure carbon clusters. Little information exists on the structures, properties, and transition frequencies of pure carbon clusters. The work described is designed to provide a specific inventory of laboratory frequencies and physical properties of this carbon clusters so that efforts can be made to detect them in cold interstellar sources by far-infrared astronomy. Data is given from infrared laser spectroscopy determination of the structure of C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, and C9.

Heath, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO Cirrus Case Study: Cloud Optical Properties Determined by High Spectral Resolution Lidar

During the First ISCCP Region Experiment (FIRE) cirrus intensive field observation (IFO) the High Spectral Resolution Lidar was operated from a roof top site on the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. Because the HSRL technique separately measures the molecular and cloud particle backscatter components of the lidar return, the optical thickness is determined independent of particle backscatter. This is accomplished by comparing the known molecular density distribution to the observed decrease in molecular backscatter signal with altitude. The particle to molecular backscatter ratio yields calibrated measurements of backscatter cross sections that can be plotted ro reveal cloud morphology without distortion due to attenuation. Changes in cloud particle size, shape, and phase affect the backscatter to extinction ratio (backscatter-phase function). The HSRL independently measures cloud particle backscatter phase function. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the HSRL cirrus cloud data acquired over an approximate 33 hour period of continuous near zenith observations. Correlations between small scale wind structure and cirrus cloud morphology have been observed. These correlations can bias the range averaging inherent in wind profiling lidars of modest vertical resolution, leading to increased measurement errors at cirrus altitudes. Extended periods of low intensity backscatter were noted between more strongly organized cirrus cloud activity. Optical thicknesses ranging from 0.01-1.4, backscatter phase functions between 0.02-0.065 sr (exp -1) and backscatter cross sections spanning 4 orders of magnitude were observed. the altitude relationship between cloud top and bottom boundaries and the cloud optical center altitude was dependent on the type of formation observed Cirrus features were observed with characteristic wind drift estimated horizontal sizes of 5-400 km. The clouds frequently exhibited cellular structure with vertical to horizontal dimension ratios of 1:5-1:1.

Grund, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Tropical Cumulus Convection and Upward Propagating Waves in Middle Atmospheric GCMs

It is recognized that the resolved tropical wave spectrum can vary considerably between general circulation models (GCMs) and that these differences can have an important impact on the simulated climate. A comprehensive comparison of the waves is presented for the December-January-February period using high-frequency (three-hourly) data archives from eight GCMs and one simple model participating in the GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS). Quantitative measures of the structure and causes of the wavenumber-frequency structure of resolved waves and their impacts on the climate are given. Space-time spectral analysis reveals that the wave spectrum throughout the middle atmosphere is linked to variability of convective precipitation, which is determined by the parameterized convection. The variability of the precipitation spectrum differs by more than an order of magnitude between the models, with additional changes in the spectral distribution (especially the frequency). These differences can be explained primarily by the choice of different, cumulus par amet erizations: quasi-equilibrium mass-flux schemes tend to produce small variability, while the moist-convective adjustment scheme is most active. Comparison with observational estimates of precipitation variability suggests that the model values are scattered around the truth. This result indicates that a significant portion of the forcing of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is provided by waves with scales that are not resolved in present-day GCMs, since only the moist convective adjustment scheme (which has the largest transient variability) can force a QBO in models that have no parameterization of non-stationary gravity waves. Parameterized cumulus convection also impacts the nonmigrating tides in the equatorial region. In most of the models, momentum transport by diurnal nonmigrating tides in the mesosphere is larger than that by Kelvin waves, being more significant than has been thought. It is shown that the equatorial semi-annual oscillation in the models examined is driven mainly by gravity waves with periods shorter than three days, with at least some contribution from parameterized gravity waves; the contribution from the ultra-fast zonal wavenumber-1 Kelvin waves is negligible.

Horinouchi, T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Shallow and Deep Latent Heating Modes Over Tropical Oceans Observed with TRMM PR Spectral Latent Heating Data

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. Three-dimensional distributions of latent heating estimated from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR)utilizing the Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm are analyzed. Mass-weighted and vertically integrated latent heating averaged over the tropical oceans is estimated as approx.72.6 J/s (approx.2.51 mm/day), and that over tropical land is approx.73.7 J/s (approx.2.55 mm/day), for 30degN-30degS. It is shown that non-drizzle precipitation over tropical and subtropical oceans consists of two dominant modes of rainfall systems, deep systems and congestus. A rough estimate of shallow mode contribution against the total heating is about 46.7 % for the average tropical oceans, which is substantially larger than 23.7 % over tropical land. While cumulus congestus heating linearly correlates with the SST, deep mode is dynamically bounded by large-scale subsidence. It is notable that substantial amount of rain, as large as 2.38 mm day-1 in average, is brought from congestus clouds under the large-scale subsiding circulation. It is also notable that even in the region with SST warmer than 28 oC, large-scale subsidence effectively suppresses the deep convection, remaining the heating by congestus clouds. Our results support that the entrainment of mid-to-lower-tropospheric dry air, which accompanies the large-scale subsidence is the major factor suppressing the deep convection. Therefore, representation of the realistic entrainment is very important for proper reproduction of precipitation distribution and resultant large-scale circulation.

Takayabu, Yukari N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Correlation of Interphase Chromatin Structure with the Radiation-Induced Inter- and Intrachromosome Exchange Hotspots

To investigate the relationship between chromosome aberrations induced by radiation and chromatin folding, we reconstructed three dimensional structure of chromosome 3 and measured the physical distances between different regions of the chromosome. Previously, we have investigated the location of breaks involved in inter- and intrachromosomal type exchange events in human chromosome 3, using the multicolor banding in situ hybridization (mBAND) technique. In human epithelial cells exposed to both low- and high-LET radiations in vitro, we reported that intra-chromosome exchanges occurred preferentially between a break in the 3p21 and one in the 3q11 regions, and the breaks involving in inter-chromosome exchanges occurred in two regions towards the telomeres of the chromosome. Exchanges were also observed between a break in 3p21 and one in 3q26, but few exchanges were observed between breaks in 3q11 and 3q26, even though the two regions are located on the same arm of the chromosome. In this study, human epithelial cells were fixed at G1 phase and the interphase cells were hybridized using the XCyte3 mBAND kit from MetaSystems. The z-section images of chromosome 3 were captured with a Leica and an LSM 510 Meta laser scanning confocal microscopes. A total of 100 chromosomes were analyzed. The reconstruction of three dimensional structure of interphase chromosome 3 with six different colored regions was achieved using the Imaris software. The relative distance between different regions was measured as well. We further analyzed fragile sites on the chromosome that have been identified in various types of cancers. The data showed that, in majority of the cells, the regions containing 3p21 and 3q11 are colocalized in the center of the chromosome, whereas, the regions towards the telomeres of the chromosome are either physically wrapping outside the chromosome center or with arms sticking out. Our results demonstrated that the distribution of breaks involved in radiation-induced inter and intra-chromosome aberrations depends upon both the location of fragile sites and the folding of chromatins.

Zhang, Ye↗

NASA NTRS2013

Measuring Temperature-Dependent Propagating Disturbances in Coronal Fan Loops Using Multiple SDO-AIA Channels and Surfing Transform Technique

A set of co-aligned high resolution images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is used to investigate propagating disturbances (PDs) in warm fan loops at the periphery of a non-flaring active region NOAA AR 11082. To measure PD speeds at multiple coronal temperatures, a new data analysis methodology is proposed enabling quantitative description of sub visual coronal motions with low signal-to-noise ratios of the order of 0.1. The technique operates with a set of one-dimensional surfing signals extracted from position-timeplots of several AIA channels through a modified version of Radon transform. The signals are used to evaluate a two-dimensional power spectral density distribution in the frequency - velocity space which exhibits a resonance in the presence of quasi-periodic PDs. By applying this analysis to the same fan loop structures observed in several AIA channels, we found that the traveling velocity of PDs increases with the temperature of the coronal plasma following the square root dependence predicted for the slow mode magneto-acoustic wave which seems to be the dominating wave mode in the studied loop structures. This result extends recent observations by Kiddie et al. (2012) to a more general class of fan loop systems not associated with sunspots and demonstrating consistent slow mode activity in up to four AIA channels.

Solar Corona↗

NASA NTRS2004

Computational and Experimental Study of Energetic Materials in a Counterflow Microgravity Environment

Counterflow diffusion flames are studied for various fuels flowing against decomposition products from solid ammonium perchlorate (AP) pellets in order to obtain fundamental understanding of composite propellant flame structure and chemistry. We illustrate this approach through a combined experimental and numerical study of a fuel mixture consisting of C2H4 CO + H2, and C2H2 + C2H4 flowing against solid AP. For these particular AP-fuel systems, the resulting flame zone simulates the various flame structures that are ex+ to exist between reaction products from Ap crystals and a hydrocarbon binder. As in all our experimental studies, quantitative species and temperature profiles have been measured between the fuel exit and AP surface. Species measured included CN, NH, NO, OH, N2, CO2, CO, H2, CO, HCl, and H2O. Temperature was measured using a thermocouple at the exit, spontaneous Raman scattering measurements throughout the flame, OH rotational population distributions, and NO vibrational population distributions. The burning rate of AP was also measured as a function of strain rate, given by the separation distance between the AP surface and the gaseous hydrocarbon fuel tube exit plane. This distance was nominally set at 5 mm, although studies have been performed for variations in separation distance. The measured 12 scalars are compared with predictions from a detailed gas-phase kinetics model consisting of 86 species and 531 reactions. Model predictions are found to be in good agreement with experiment and illustrate the type of kinetic features that may be expected to occur in propellants when AP particle size distributions are varied. Furthermore, the results constitute the continued development of a necessary database and validation of a comprehensive model for studying more complex AP-solid fuel systems in microgravity. Exploratory studies have also been performed with liquid and solid fuels at normal gravity. Because of melting (and hence dripping) and deep thermal wave penetration into the liquid, these experiments were found feasible, but not used for obtaining quantitative data. Microgravity experiments are needed to eliminate the dripping and boiling phenomena of these systems at normal gravity. Microgravity tests in the NASA Glenn 2.2 second drop tower were performed (1) to demonstrate the feasibility of performing propellant experiments using the NASA Glenn microgravity facilities, (2) to develop the operational procedures for safe handing of the energetic materials and disposal of their toxic combustion by-products and (3) to obtain initial measurements of the AP burning rate and flame structure under microgravity conditions. Experiments were conducted on the CH4/AP system previously studied at normal gravity using a modified design of the counterflow burner and a NASA Glenn Pig Rig, i.e., one of the existing drop rigs for general-purpose usage. In these experiments, the AP burning rate was measured directly with a linear variable differential transducer (LVDT) and video imaging of the flame structure was recorded ignition was achieved by hot wires stretched across the AP surfaces. Initial drop tower combustion data show that with the same burner separation distance and flow conditions of the normal gravity experiments, the AP burning rate is approximately a factor of two lower. This difference is likely a result of radiation effects, but further tests with longer test times need to be conducted to verify that steady state conditions were achieved under microgravity conditions.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗

NASA NTRS1978

A physical parameter method for the design of broad-band X-ray imaging systems to do coronal plasma diagnostics

The technique commonly used for the analysis of data from broad-band X-ray imaging systems for plasma diagnostics is the filter ratio method. This requires the use of two or more broad-band filters to derive temperatures and line-of-sight emission integrals or emission measure distributions as a function of temperature. Here an alternative analytical approach is proposed in which the temperature response of the imaging system is matched to the physical parameter being investigated. The temperature response of a system designed to measure the total radiated power along the line of sight of any coronal structure is calculated. Other examples are discussed.

Kahler, S.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Inverse problems in the modeling of vibrations of flexible beams

The formulation and solution of inverse problems for the estimation of parameters which describe damping and other dynamic properties in distributed models for the vibration of flexible structures is considered. Motivated by a slewing beam experiment, the identification of a nonlinear velocity dependent term which models air drag damping in the Euler-Bernoulli equation is investigated. Galerkin techniques are used to generate finite dimensional approximations. Convergence estimates and numerical results are given. The modeling of, and related inverse problems for the dynamics of a high pressure hose line feeding a gas thruster actuator at the tip of a cantilevered beam are then considered. Approximation and convergence are discussed and numerical results involving experimental data are presented.

Banks, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Predicted and measured in-flight wing deformations of a forward-swept-wing aircraft

An electrooptical flight-deflection measurement system (FDMS) is described in terms of its use in structural testing of the composite forward-swept wing of the X-29 aircraft. The wing deflected shapes measured using the present system are compared to the shapes predicted by NASTRAN and other codes as well as data from ground-test load measurements. The electrooptical FDMS is based on a control unit, two receivers, a target driver, and 12-16 IR LED targets. The FDMS determines the in-flight deflected wing shapes at a variety of altitudes at Mach 0.9, and the results are compared to the analytically predicted wing-twist distributions. The FDMS data describe the predicted increasing streamwise twist with increasing dynamic pressure and suggest that the streamwise twist is more prevalent at the inboard measurement station than at the wing tip. This hook shape is not represented in the predicted data, and suggestions are given for improving the modeling of the X-29 wing.

Lokos, William A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Studies of dynamic processes related to active experiments in space plasmas

This is the final report for grant NAGw-2055, 'Studies of Dynamic Processes Related to Active Experiments in Space Plasmas', covering research performed at the University of Michigan. The grant was awarded to study: (1) theoretical and data analysis of data from the CHARGE-2 rocket experiment (1keV; 1-46 mA electron beam ejections) and the Spacelab-2 shuttle experiment (1keV; 100 mA); (2) studies of the interaction of an electron beam, emitted from an ionospheric platform, with the ambient neutral atmosphere and plasma by means of a newly developed computer simulation model, relating model predictions with CHARGE-2 observations of return currents observed during electron beam emissions; and (3) development of a self-consistent model for the charge distribution on a moving conducting tether in a magnetized plasma and for the potential structure in the plasma surrounding the tether. Our main results include: (1) the computer code developed for the interaction of electrons beams with the neutral atmosphere and plasma is able to model observed return fluxes to the CHARGE-2 sounding rocket payload; and (2) a 3-D electromagnetic and relativistic particle simulation code was developed.

Banks, Peter M.↗