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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Resilience Design Patterns - A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (version 1.0)

Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest that very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Practical limits on power consumption in HPC systems will require future systems to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. The resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires management of various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. These techniques must seek to improve resilience at reasonable overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various solutions, application-level as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods and metrics to investigate and evaluate resilience holistically in HPC systems that consider impact scope, handling coverage, and performance & power eciency across the system stack. Additionally, few of the current approaches are portable to newer architectures and software ecosystems, which are expected to be deployed on future systems. In this document, we develop a structured approach to the management of HPC resilience based on the concept of resilience-based design patterns. A design pattern is a general repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identify the commonly occurring problems and solutions used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. The catalog of resilience design patterns provides designers with reusable design elements. We define a design framework that enhances our understanding of the important constraints and opportunities for solutions deployed at various layers of the system stack. The framework may be used to establish mechanisms and interfaces to coordinate flexible fault management across hardware and software components. The framework also enables optimization of the cost-benefit trade-os among performance, resilience, and power consumption. The overall goal of this work is to enable a systematic methodology for the design and evaluation of resilience technologies in extreme-scale HPC systems that keep scientific applications running to a correct solution in a timely and cost-ecient manner in spite of frequent faults, errors, and failures of various types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Correction to: Imaging Light–Induced Migration of Dislocations in Halide Perovskites with 3D Nanoscale Strain Mapping

Owing to an error in properly normalizing the reconstruction phase data into atomic displacements, the strain values that we used to calculate the root mean squared local strain, ε rms , and to calculate the fraction of the crystals more strain than 1%, f, quoted in the original paper, are roughly one order of magnitude too large. This error was only discovered recently whilst performing further analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

British Petroleum's Deepwater Horizon Accident and the Thinking, Engaged Workforce - 13265

On April 20, 2010, hydrocarbons escaped from the Macondo well into Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in fire and multiple explosions. 11 people on the rig died. The billion dollar Deepwater Horizon sank. 4.9 M gallons of product flowed from the well for 87 days creating an environmental nightmare for communities bordering on the Gulf of Mexico. BP established a $20 B reserve to pay for damages. Investigations and legal culpability continue to this day. In September 2010, the Institute for Nuclear Power Operators (INPO) issued Significant Operating Experience Report (SOER) 10-2, Engaged, Thinking Organizations. The industry had experienced 11 events, 9 in US commercial nuclear utilities, and 2 international, that had disturbing trends. The underlying causes highlighted by INPO were inadequate recognition of risk, weaknesses in application of significant operating experience, tolerance of equipment and personnel problems, and a significant drift in standards. While the noted INPO problems and the Deepwater Horizon event appear to have nothing in common, they do exhibit similarities in a drift away from expected behavior on the part of front line workers and their supervisors. At the same time, hidden hazards are accumulating in the environment leading to error intolerant conditions. Without a good understanding of this concept, many organizations tend to focus on the person who 'touched it last', while missing the deeper organizational factors that led that individual to think that what they were doing was correct. An understanding of this failure model is important in reconstruction of events and crafting effective corrective actions. It is much more important, however, for leaders in high hazard industries to recognize when they are approaching error intolerant conditions and take steps immediately to add safety margin. (authors)

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2014

Automatic tracking of arbitrarily shaped implanted markers in kilovoltage projection images: A feasibility study

Purpose: Certain types of commonly used fiducial markers take on irregular shapes upon implantation in soft tissue. This poses a challenge for methods that assume a predefined shape of markers when automatically tracking such markers in kilovoltage (kV) radiographs. The authors have developed a method of automatically tracking regularly and irregularly shaped markers using kV projection images and assessed its potential for detecting intrafractional target motion during rotational treatment. Methods: Template-based matching used a normalized cross-correlation with simplex minimization. Templates were created from computed tomography (CT) images for phantom studies and from end-expiration breath-hold planning CT for patient studies. The kV images were processed using a Sobel filter to enhance marker visibility. To correct for changes in intermarker relative positions between simulation and treatment that can introduce errors in automatic matching, marker offsets in three dimensions were manually determined from an approximately orthogonal pair of kV images. Two studies in anthropomorphic phantom were carried out, one using a gold cylindrical marker representing regular shape, another using a Visicoil marker representing irregular shape. Automatic matching of templates to cone beam CT (CBCT) projection images was performed to known marker positions in phantom. In patient data, automatic matching was compared to manual matching as an approximate ground truth. Positional discrepancy between automatic and manual matching of less than 2 mm was assumed as the criterion for successful tracking. Tracking success rates were examined in kV projection images from 22 CBCT scans of four pancreas, six gastroesophageal junction, and one lung cancer patients. Each patient had at least one irregularly shaped radiopaque marker implanted in or near the tumor. In addition, automatic tracking was tested in intrafraction kV images of three lung cancer patients with irregularly shaped markers during 11 volumetric modulated arc treatments. Purpose-built software developed at our institution was used to create marker templates and track the markers embedded in kV images. Results: Phantom studies showed mean ± standard deviation measurement uncertainty of automatic registration to be 0.14 ± 0.07 mm and 0.17 ± 0.08 mm for Visicoil and gold cylindrical markers, respectively. The mean success rate of automatic tracking with CBCT projections (11 frames per second, fps) of pancreas, gastroesophageal junction, and lung cancer patients was 100%, 99.1% (range 98%–100%), and 100%, respectively. With intrafraction images (approx. 0.2 fps) of lung cancer patients, the success rate was 98.2% (range 97%–100%), and 94.3% (range 93%–97%) using templates from 1.25 mm and 2.5 mm slice spacing CT scans, respectively. Correction of intermarker relative position was found to improve the success rate in two out of eight patients analyzed. Conclusions: The proposed method can track arbitrary marker shapes in kV images using templates generated from a breath-hold CT acquired at simulation. The studies indicate its feasibility for tracking tumor motion during rotational treatment. Investigation of the causes of misregistration suggests that its rate of incidence can be reduced with higher frequency of image acquisition, templates made from smaller CT slice spacing, and correction of changes in intermarker relative positions when they occur.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-C-BRD-03: Closing the Loop On Virtual IMRT QA

Purpose: To develop an algorithm that predicts a priori IMRT QA passing rates. Methods: 416 IMRT plans from all treatment sites were planned in Eclipse version 11 and delivered using a dynamic sliding window technique on Clinac iX or TrueBeam linacs (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA). The 3%/3mm and 2%/2mm local distance to agreement (DTA) were recorded during clinical operations using a commercial 2D diode array (MapCHECK 2, Sun Nuclear, Melbourne, FL). Each plan was characterized by 37 metrics that describe different failure modes between the calculated and measured dose. Machine-learning algorithms (MLAs) were trained to learn the relation between the plan characteristics and each passing rate. Minimization of the cross validated error, together with maximum a posteriori estimation (MAP), were used to choose the model parameters. Results: 3%/3mm local DTA can be predicted with an error smaller than 3% for 98% of the plans. For the remaining 2% of plans, the residual error was within 5%. For 2%/2mm local DTA passing rates, 96% percent of the plans were successfully predicted with an error smaller than 5%. All high-risk plans that failed the 2%/2mm local criteria were correctly identified by the algorithm. The most important metric to describe the passing rates was determined to be the MU per Gray (modulation factor). Conclusions: Logs files and independent dose calculations have been suggested as possible substitutes for measurement based IMRT QA. However, none of these methods answer the fundamental question of whether a plan can be delivered with a clinically acceptable error given the limitations of the linacs and the treatment planning system. Predicting the IMRT QA passing rates a priori closes that loop. For additional robustness, virtual IMRT QA can be combined with Linac QA and log file analysis to confirm appropriate delivery.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Correction to: Quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis reveals reciprocal activation of receptor tyrosine kinases between cancer epithelial cells and stromal fibroblasts

Unfortunately, after publication of this article [1], errors were noticed in Figs. 3 and 4. The “T” in the word “pTyr” was missing in Fig. 3. The word “change” was missing after the word “Fold” in the label of y axis in Fig. 4a. The “e” in the word “Co-culture” was missing in Fig. 4a. The correct figures are presented in this correction. The original article has also been updated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mechanism of error-free DNA synthesis across N1-methyl-deoxyadenosine by human DNA polymerase-$\iota$

N1-methyl-deoxyadenosine (1-MeA) is formed by methylation of deoxyadenosine at the N1 atom. 1-MeA presents a block to replicative DNA polymerases due to its inability to participate in Watson-Crick (W-C) base pairing. Here we determine how human DNA polymerase-ι (Pol$\iota$) promotes error-free replication across 1-MeA. Steady state kinetic analyses indicate that Pol$\iota$ is ~100 fold more efficient in incorporating the correct nucleotide T versus the incorrect nucleotide C opposite 1-MeA. To understand the basis of this selectivity, we determined ternary structures of Polι bound to template 1-MeA and incoming dTTP or dCTP. In both structures, template 1-MeA rotates to the syn conformation but pairs differently with dTTP versus dCTP. Thus, whereas dTTP partakes in stable Hoogsteen base pairing with 1-MeA, dCTP fails to gain a “foothold” and is largely disordered. Together, our kinetic and structural studies show how Polι maintains discrimination between correct and incorrect incoming nucleotide opposite 1-MeA in preserving genome integrity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-D-9A-02: Automated Landmark-Guided CT to Cone-Beam CT Deformable Image Registration

Purpose: The anatomical changes that occur between the simulation CT and daily cone-beam CT (CBCT) are investigated using an automated landmark-guided deformable image registration (LDIR) algorithm with simultaneous intensity correction. LDIR was designed to be accurate in the presence of tissue intensity mismatch and heavy noise contamination. Method: An auto-landmark generation algorithm was used in conjunction with a local small volume (LSV) gradient matching search engine to map corresponding landmarks between the CBCT and planning CT. The LSVs offsets were used to perform an initial deformation, generate landmarks, and correct local intensity mismatch. The landmarks act as stabilizing controlpoints in the Demons objective function. The accuracy of the LDIR algorithm was evaluated on one synthetic case with ground truth and data of ten head and neck cancer patients. The deformation vector field (DVF) accuracy was accessed using a synthetic case. The Root mean square error of the 3D canny edge (RMSECE), mutual information (MI), and feature similarity index metric (FSIM) were used to access the accuracy of LDIR on the patient data. The quality of the corresponding deformed contours was verified by an attending physician. Results: The resulting 90 percentile DVF error for the synthetic case was within 5.63mm for the original demons algorithm, 2.84mm for intensity correction alone, 2.45mm using controlpoints without intensity correction, and 1.48 mm for the LDIR algorithm. For the five patients the mean RMSECE of the original CT, Demons deformed CT, intensity corrected Demons CT, control-point stabilized deformed CT, and LDIR CT was 0.24, 0.26, 0.20, 0.20, and 0.16 respectively. Conclusion: LDIR is accurate in the presence of multimodal intensity mismatch and CBCT noise contamination. Since LDIR is GPU based it can be implemented with minimal additional strain on clinical resources. This project has been supported by a CPRIT individual investigator award RP11032.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Resilience Design Patterns - A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (version 1.1)

Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest the prevalence of very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Therefore the resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires management of various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. Also, due to practical limits on power consumption in HPC systems future systems are likely to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. As a result the techniques that seek to improve resilience must navigate the complex trade-off space between resilience and the overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various resilience solutions, application-level techniques as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods and metrics to investigate and evaluate resilience holistically in HPC systems that consider impact scope, handling coverage, and performance & power efficiency across the system stack. Additionally, few of the current approaches are portable to newer architectures and software environments that will be deployed on future systems. In this document, we develop a structured approach to the management of HPC resilience using the concept of resilience-based design patterns. A design pattern is a general repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identify the commonly occurring problems and solutions used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. Each established solution is described in the form of a pattern that addresses concrete problems in the design of resilient systems. The complete catalog of resilience design patterns provides designers with reusable design elements. We also define a framework that enhances a designer's understanding of the important constraints and opportunities for the design patterns to be implemented and deployed at various layers of the system stack. This design framework may be used to establish mechanisms and interfaces to coordinate flexible fault management across hardware and software components. The framework also supports optimization of the cost-benefit trade-offs among performance, resilience, and power consumption. The overall goal of this work is to enable a systematic methodology for the design and evaluation of resilience technologies in extreme-scale HPC systems that keep scientific applications running to a correct solution in a timely and cost-efficient manner in spite of frequent faults, errors, and failures of various types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-92: On-Line Cone Beam CT Based Planning for Emergency and Palliative Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate and develop the feasibility of on-line cone beam CT based planning for emergency and palliative radiotherapy treatments. Methods: Subsequent to phantom studies, a case library of 28 clinical megavoltage cone beam CT (MVCBCT) was built to assess dose-planning accuracies on MVCBCT for all anatomical sites. A simple emergency treatment plan was created on the MVCBCT and copied to its reference CT. The agreement between the dose distributions of each image pair was evaluated by the mean dose difference of the dose volume and the gamma index of the central 2D axial plane. An array of popular urgent and palliative cases was also evaluated for imaging component clearance and field-of-view. Results: The treatment cases were categorized into four groups (head and neck, thorax/spine, pelvis and extremities). Dose distributions for head and neck treatments were predicted accurately in all cases with a gamma index of >95% for 2% and 2 mm criteria. Thoracic spine treatments had a gamma index as low as 60% indicating a need for better uniformity correction and tissue density calibration. Small anatomy changes between CT and MVCBCT could contribute to local errors. Pelvis and sacral spine treatment cases had a gamma index between 90% and 98% for 3%/3 mm criteria. The limited FOV became an issue for large pelvis patients. Imaging clearance was difficult for cases where the tumor was positioned far off midline. Conclusion: The MVCBCT based dose planning and delivery approach is feasible in many treatment cases. Dose distributions for head and neck patients are unrestrictedly predictable. Some FOV restrictions apply to other treatment sites. Lung tissue is most challenging for accurate dose calculations given the current imaging filters and corrections. Additional clinical cases for extremities need to be included in the study to assess the full range of site-specific planning accuracies. This work is supported by Siemens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Infrared extrapolations for atomic nuclei

Harmonic oscillator model-space truncations introduce systematic errors to the calculation of binding energies and other observables. We identify the relevant infrared (IR) scaling variable and give values for this nucleus-dependent quantity. We consider isotopes of oxygen computed with the coupled-cluster method from chiral nucleon–nucleon interactions at next-to-next-to-leading order and show that the IR component of the error is sufficiently understood to permit controlled extrapolations. By employing oscillator spaces with relatively large frequencies, that are well above the energy minimum, the ultraviolet corrections can be suppressed while IR extrapolations over tens of MeVs are accurate for ground-state energies. However, robust uncertainty quantification for extrapolated quantities that fully accounts for systematic errors is not yet developed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-642: Safety Procedures for Error Elimination in Cyberknife Stereotactic Radiosurgery (SRS) and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT)

Purpose: Cyberknife system is used for providing stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) hypofractionation scheme. The whole treatment delivery is based on live imaging of the patient. The minor error made at any stage may bring severe radiation injury to the patient or damage to the system itself. Several safety measures were taken to make the system safer. Methods: The radiation treatment provided thru a 6MV linac attached to Kuka robot (Cyberknife G4, Accuray Inc. Sunnyvale, CA, USA). Several possible errors were identified related to patient alignment, treatment planning, dose delivery and physics quality assurance. During dose delivery, manual and visual checks were introduced to confirm pre and intra-treatment imaging to reduce possible errors. One additional step was introduced to confirm that software tracking-tools had worked correctly with highest possible confidence level. Robotic head move in different orientations over and around the patient body, the rigidity of linac-head cover and other accessories was checked periodically. The vender was alerted when a tiny or bigger piece of equipment needed additional interlocked support. Results: As of our experience treating 525 patients on Cyberknife during the last four years, we saw on and off technical issues. During image acquisition, it was made essential to follow the site-specific imaging protocols. Adequate anatomy was contoured to document the respective doses. Followed by auto-segmentation, manual tweaking was performed on every structure. The calculation box was enclosing the whole image during the final calculation. Every plan was evaluated on slice-by slice basis. To review the whole process, a check list was maintained during the physics 2nd-check. Conclusion: The implementation of manual and visual additional checks introduced along with automated checks for confirmation was found promising in terms of reduction in systematic errors and making the system safer than before.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

MO-G-18C-05: Real-Time Prediction in Free-Breathing Perfusion MRI

Purpose: The aim is to minimize frame-wise difference errors caused by respiratory motion and eliminate the need for breath-holds in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences with long acquisitions and repeat times (TRs). The technique is being applied to perfusion MRI using arterial spin labeling (ASL). Methods: Respiratory motion prediction (RMP) using navigator echoes was implemented in ASL. A least-square method was used to extract the respiratory motion information from the 1D navigator. A generalized artificial neutral network (ANN) with three layers was developed to simultaneously predict 10 time points forward in time and correct for respiratory motion during MRI acquisition. During the training phase, the parameters of the ANN were optimized to minimize the aggregated prediction error based on acquired navigator data. During realtime prediction, the trained ANN was applied to the most recent estimated displacement trajectory to determine in real-time the amount of spatial Results: The respiratory motion information extracted from the least-square method can accurately represent the navigator profiles, with a normalized chi-square value of 0.037±0.015 across the training phase. During the 60-second training phase, the ANN successfully learned the respiratory motion pattern from the navigator training data. During real-time prediction, the ANN received displacement estimates and predicted the motion in the continuum of a 1.0 s prediction window. The ANN prediction was able to provide corrections for different respiratory states (i.e., inhalation/exhalation) during real-time scanning with a mean absolute error of < 1.8 mm. Conclusion: A new technique enabling free-breathing acquisition during MRI is being developed. A generalized ANN development has demonstrated its efficacy in predicting a continuum of motion profile for volumetric imaging based on navigator inputs. Future work will enhance the robustness of ANN and verify its effectiveness with human subjects. Research supported by National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute Grant R01 CA159471-01.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Measuring uncertainty in dose delivered to the cochlea due to setup error during external beam treatment of patients with cancer of the head and neck

Purpose: To use Cone Beam CT scans obtained just prior to treatments of head and neck cancer patients to measure the setup error and cumulative dose uncertainty of the cochlea. Methods: Data from 10 head and neck patients with 10 planning CTs and 52 Cone Beam CTs taken at time of treatment were used in this study. Patients were treated with conventional fractionation using an IMRT dose painting technique, most with 33 fractions. Weekly radiographic imaging was used to correct the patient setup. The authors used rigid registration of the planning CT and Cone Beam CT scans to find the translational and rotational setup errors, and the spatial setup errors of the cochlea. The planning CT was rotated and translated such that the cochlea positions match those seen in the cone beam scans, cochlea doses were recalculated and fractional doses accumulated. Uncertainties in the positions and cumulative doses of the cochlea were calculated with and without setup adjustments from radiographic imaging. Results: The mean setup error of the cochlea was 0.04 ± 0.33 or 0.06 ± 0.43 cm for RL, 0.09 ± 0.27 or 0.07 ± 0.48 cm for AP, and 0.00 ± 0.21 or −0.24 ± 0.45 cm for SI with and without radiographic imaging, respectively. Setup with radiographic imaging reduced the standard deviation of the setup error by roughly 1–2 mm. The uncertainty of the cochlea dose depends on the treatment plan and the relative positions of the cochlea and target volumes. Combining results for the left and right cochlea, the authors found the accumulated uncertainty of the cochlea dose per fraction was 4.82 (0.39–16.8) cGy, or 10.1 (0.8–32.4) cGy, with and without radiographic imaging, respectively; the percentage uncertainties relative to the planned doses were 4.32% (0.28%–9.06%) and 10.2% (0.7%–63.6%), respectively. Conclusions: Patient setup error introduces uncertainty in the position of the cochlea during radiation treatment. With the assistance of radiographic imaging during setup, the standard deviation of setup error reduced by 31%, 42%, and 54% in RL, AP, and SI direction, respectively, and consequently, the uncertainty of the mean dose to cochlea reduced more than 50%. The authors estimate that the effects of these uncertainties on the probability of hearing loss for an individual patient could be as large as 10%.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Pointing Self-calibration Algorithm for Aperture Synthesis Radio Telescopes

This paper is concerned with algorithms for calibration of direction-dependent effects (DDE) in aperture synthesis radio telescopes (ASRT). After correction of direction-independent effects (DIE) using self-calibration, imaging performance can be limited by the imprecise knowledge of the forward gain of the elements in the array. In general, the forward gain pattern is directionally dependent and varies with time due to a number of reasons. Some factors, such as rotation of the primary beam with Parallactic Angle for Azimuth–Elevation mount antennas are known a priori. Some, such as antenna pointing errors and structural deformation/projection effects for aperture-array elements cannot be measured a priori. Thus, in addition to algorithms to correct for DD effects known a priori, algorithms to solve for DD gains are required for high dynamic range imaging. Here, we discuss a mathematical framework for antenna-based DDE calibration algorithms and show that this framework leads to computationally efficient optimal algorithms that scale well in a parallel computing environment. As an example of an antenna-based DD calibration algorithm, we demonstrate the Pointing SelfCal (PSC) algorithm to solve for the antenna pointing errors. Our analysis show that the sensitivity of modern ASRT is sufficient to solve for antenna pointing errors and other DD effects. We also discuss the use of the PSC algorithm in real-time calibration systems and extensions for antenna Shape SelfCal algorithm for real-time tracking and corrections for pointing offsets and changes in antenna shape.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Energy considerations in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

An error in the energy formulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is identified and corrected. Ten year AMIP simulations are compared using the correct and incorrect energy formulations. Statistics of selected primary variables all indicate physically insignificant differences between the simulations, comparable to differences with simulations initialized with rounding sized perturbations. The two simulations are so similar mainly because of an inconsistency in the application of the incorrect energy formulation in the original CAM. CAM used the erroneous energy form to determine the states passed between the parameterizations, but used a form related to the correct formulation for the state passed from the parameterizations to the dynamical core. If the incorrect form is also used to determine the state passed to the dynamical core the simulations are significantly different. In addition, CAM uses the incorrect form for the global energy fixer, but that seems to be less important. The difference of the magnitude of the fixers using the correct and incorrect energy definitions is very small.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗