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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Lung cancer mortality among construction workers: implications for early detection

Objectives This study examined predictors of lung cancer mortality, beyond age and smoking, among construction workers employed at US Department of Energy (DOE) sites to better define eligibility for low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Methods Predictive models were based on 17 069 workers and 352 lung cancer deaths. Risk factors included age, gender, race/ethnicity, cigarette smoking, years of trade or DOE work, body mass index (BMI), chest X-ray results, spirometry results, respiratory symptoms, beryllium sensitisation and personal history of cancer. Competing risk Cox models were used to obtain HRs and to predict 5-year risks. Results Factors beyond age and smoking included in the final predictive model were chest X-ray changes, abnormal lung function, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), respiratory symptoms, BMI, personal history of cancer and having worked 5 or more years at a DOE site or in construction. Risk-based LDCT eligibility demonstrated improved sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value compared with current US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines. The risk of lung cancer death from 5 years of work in the construction industry or at a DOE site was comparable with the risk from a personal cancer history, a family history of cancer or a diagnosis of COPD. LDCT eligibility criteria used for DOE construction workers, which includes factors beyond age and smoking, identified 86% of participants who eventually would die from lung cancer compared with 51% based on age and smoking alone. Conclusions Results support inclusion of risk from occupational exposures and non-malignant respiratory clinical findings in LDCT clinical guidelines.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transfer-Learnt Energy Models for Predicting Electricity Consumption in Buildings with Limited and Sparse Field Data

Modeling energy consumption is critical for energy-efficient utilization of the electric appliances in a building, smart grid programs (like demand-response), and many other smart home applications. State-of-the-art energy modeling techniques either rely on theoretical models, or extensive instrumentation of the building envelope to gather ``big" data to train a deep neural network. While theoretical models are often limited by their estimation accuracy, it is not always feasible to gather a significant amount of field data. In this paper, we explore transfer learning-based strategies to train much more accurate model for energy estimation when using a sparse field data. We transferred knowledge, in the form of data and parameters, from the simulation framework to the field data. We evaluated the efficacy of our approach on field data collected from six commercial buildings and our results indicate that transfer learning-based models trained over one month data can perform comparative (and in some cases better) than the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning solutions.

Jain, Milan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of QSAR models to predict blood-brain barrier permeability

Assessing drug permeability across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) is important when evaluating the abuse potential of new pharmaceuticals as well as developing novel therapeutics that target central nervous system disorders. One of the gold-standard in vivo methods for determining BBB permeability is rodent log BB; however, like most in vivo methods, it is time-consuming and expensive. In the present study, two statistical-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed to predict BBB permeability of drugs based on their chemical structure. The in vivo BBB permeability data were harvested for 921 compounds from publicly available literature, non-proprietary drug approval packages, and University of Washington’s Drug Interaction Database. The cross-validation performance statistics for the BBB models ranged from 82 to 85% in sensitivity and 80–83% in negative predictivity. Additionally, the performance of newly developed models was assessed using an external validation set comprised of 83 chemicals. Overall, performance of individual models ranged from 70 to 75% in sensitivity, 70–72% in negative predictivity, and 78–86% in coverage. The predictive performance was further improved to 93% in coverage by combining predictions across the two software programs. These new models can be rapidly deployed to predict blood brain barrier permeability of pharmaceutical candidates and reduce the use of experimental animals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Multiple Filter Based Neural Network Approach to the Extrapolation of Adsorption Energies on Metal Surfaces for Catalysis Applications

Computational catalyst discovery involves the development of microkinetic reactor models based on estimated parameters determined from density functional theory (DFT). For complex surface chemistries, the number of reaction intermediates can be very large, and the cost of calculating the adsorption energies by DFT for all surface intermediates even for one active site model can become prohibitive. In this paper, we have identified appropriate descriptors and machine learning models that can be used to predict a significant part of these adsorption energies given data on the rest of them. Furthermore, our investigations also included the case when the species data used to train the predictive model are of different size relative to the species the model tries to predict—this is an extrapolation in the data space which is typically difficult with regular machine learning models. Due to the relative size of the available data sets, we have attempted to extrapolate from the larger species to the smaller ones in the current work. Here, we have developed a neural network based predictive model that combines an established additive atomic contribution based model with the concepts of a convolutional neural network that, when extrapolating, achieves a statistically significant improvement over the previous models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction of glass transition temperature of conjugated polymers from chemical structure

Predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) is of critical importance as it governs the thermomechanical performance of conjugated polymers (CPs). Here, we report a predictive modeling framework to predict T g of CPs through the integration of machine learning (ML), molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and experiments. With 154 T g data collected, an ML model is developed by taking simplified “geometry” of six chemical building blocks as molecular features, where side-chain fraction, isolated rings, fused rings, and bridged rings features are identified as the dominant ones for T g . MD simulations further unravel the fundamental roles of those chemical building blocks in dynamical heterogeneity and local mobility of CPs at a molecular level. The developed ML model is demonstrated for its capability of predicting T g of several new high-performance solar cell materials to a good approximation. The established predictive framework facilitates the design and prediction of T g of complex CPs, paving the way for addressing device stability issues that have hampered the field from developing stable organic electronics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Consensus Modeling for Prediction of Estrogenic Activity of Ingredients Commonly Used in Sunscreen Products

Sunscreen products are predominantly regulated as over-the-counter (OTC) drugs by the US FDA. The “active” ingredients function as ultraviolet filters. Once a sunscreen product is generally recognized as safe and effective (GRASE) via an OTC drug review process, new formulations using these ingredients do not require FDA review and approval, however, the majority of ingredients have never been tested to uncover any potential endocrine activity and their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER) is unknown, despite the fact that this is a very extensively studied target related to endocrine activity. Consequently, we have developed an in silico model to prioritize single ingredient estrogen receptor activity for use when actual animal data are inadequate, equivocal, or absent. It relies on consensus modeling to qualitatively and quantitatively predict ER binding activity. As proof of concept, the model was applied to ingredients commonly used in sunscreen products worldwide and a few reference chemicals. Of the 32 chemicals with unknown ER binding activity that were evaluated, seven were predicted to be active estrogenic compounds. Five of the seven were confirmed by the published data. Further experimental data is needed to confirm the other two predictions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rhythm of the Night (and Day): Predictive Metabolic Modeling of Diurnal Growth in Chlamydomonas

We have developed the first transient metabolic model for diurnal growth of algae based on experimental data and capable of predicting phenotype from genotype. This model enables us to evaluate the impact of genetic and environmental changes on the growth, biomass composition and intracellular fluxes of the model green alga, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii . The availability of this model will enable faster and more efficient design of cells for production of fuels, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Deep Learning Model for Predicting the Drag Coefficients of Spherical and Non-Spherical Particles,

There is yet to be a well-established drag model for non-spherical particles required in a particle-laden flow that could cover a wide range of sphericities. This talk will explore the development of a general drag model for non-spherical particles by applying deep learning using available experimental data available in the literature. The integration of several raw experimental measurements from different sources and research directions allows the training of robust Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) models. Neural networks are an ML approach inspired by the inner biological workings of the brain. This work aims to develop a Deep Neural Network (DNN) that predicts drag coefficient values with the ability to adapt appropriately to unseen data. Given the limited number of data points available and the variance found within the data collected from various sources, challenges may arise when looking to train the model. Our study tests and implements various model regularization techniques and assesses different loss and activation functions for the proposed DNN. The proposed model considers a broader range of features other than sphericity and Reynold number. These features include density ratio, solid volume fraction, lengthwise and crosswise sphericity, and more. Furthermore, we present the features that play a significant role in predicting different drag coefficients through feature importance. Within the investigated parameter ranges in this study, the following conclusions can be achieved and summarized below: • An improved drag coefficient model can be developed by considering more features such as, aspect ratio, lengthwise sphericity, crosswise sphericity, and density ratio. • DNN model can predict better results compared to traditional methods using MAE metric. • The proposed model addresses data challenges such as limited data and extreme data points through expanded feature-set and regularization. • Three major features that mostly affect the drag coefficient were identified from a feature importance analysis.

Presa-Reyes, Maria↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient numerical model for predicting residual stress and strain in parts manufactured by laser powder bed fusion

Abstract Computational modeling of additively manufactured structures plays an increasingly important role in product design and optimization. For laser powder bed fusion processes, the accurate modeling of stress and distortion requires large amount of computational cost due to very localized heat input and evolving complex geometries. The current study takes advantage of a graphics processing unit accelerated explicit finite element analysis code and approximated heat conduction analysis to predict the macroscopic thermo-mechanical behavior in laser selective melting. Adjacent layers and tracks were lumped to reduce the number of time steps and elements in the finite element model. The effects of track and layer grouping on prediction accuracy and solution efficiency are investigated to provide a guidance for a cost-effective simulation. Thin-wall builds from Inconel alloy 625 (IN625) powders were simulated by applying the developed modeling approach to get the detailed residual stress and distortion at a computational speed 50 times higher than conventional approach. Under repeated heating and cooling cycles, a high tensile stress was produced near surfaces of a build due to a larger shrinkage on surface than that in central area. It is also shown that horizontal stresses concentrate near the root and top layers of the IN625 build. The predicted residual elastic strain distribution was validated by the experimental measurement using x-ray synchrotron diffraction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computer vision models enable mixed linear modeling to predict arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization using fungal morphology

Abstract The presence of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (AMF) in vascular land plant roots is one of the most ancient of symbioses supporting nitrogen and phosphorus exchange for photosynthetically derived carbon. Here we provide a multi-scale modeling approach to predict AMF colonization of a worldwide crop from a Recombinant Inbred Line (RIL) population derived from Sorghum bicolor and S. propinquum . The high-throughput phenotyping methods of fungal structures here rely on a Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Mask R-CNN) in computer vision for pixel-wise fungal structure segmentations and mixed linear models to explore the relations of AMF colonization, root niche, and fungal structure allocation. Models proposed capture over 95% of the variation in AMF colonization as a function of root niche and relative abundance of fungal structures in each plant. Arbuscule allocation is a significant predictor of AMF colonization among sibling plants. Arbuscules and extraradical hyphae implicated in nutrient exchange predict highest AMF colonization in the top root section. Our work demonstrates that deep learning can be used by the community for the high-throughput phenotyping of AMF in plant roots. Mixed linear modeling provides a framework for testing hypotheses about AMF colonization phenotypes as a function of root niche and fungal structure allocations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Search for high-mass new phenomena in the dilepton final state using proton–proton collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is conducted for both resonant and non-resonant high-mass new phenomena in dielectron and dimuon final states. The search uses 3.2 fb-1of proton–proton collision data, collected at √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in 2015. The dilepton invariant mass is used as the discriminating variable. No significant deviation from the Standard Model prediction is observed; therefore limits are set on the signal model parameters of interest at 95% credibility level. Upper limits are set on the cross-section times branching ratio for resonances decaying to dileptons, and the limits are converted into lower limits on the resonance mass, ranging between 2.74 TeV and 3.36 TeV, depending on the model. Lower limits on the ℓℓqq contact interaction scale are set between 16.7 TeV and 25.2 TeV, also depending on the model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental demonstration of real-time electron temperature profile control in DIII-D

Future tokamak reactor operation will require the ability to maintain a given plasma scenario for extended periods of time. This will necessitate the capability to react to changes in the plasma state and return the plasma to the target scenario; the principal method to achieve this is through feedback control. Thus, it is necessary to develop and test feedback controllers for the plasma profiles that define a target scenario. In this work, a feedback controller for the electron temperature (Te) profile is tested experimentally in DIII-D. This experiment relied on the ability to ascertain the electron temperature profile in real time, which was achieved using an observer algorithm. The observer relies on both diagnostic data and a predictive model of the electron temperature profile evolution; this predictive model includes contributions from neural network surrogate models. Because of these dependencies, a number of capabilities needed to be added to the real-time PCS for DIII-D in order to support the Te profile control experiment. The neural network surrogates needed to be integrated into the PCS to be called in real time. An observer algorithm for the Te profile needed to be added and connected to the Thomson scattering system to allow access to the current state of the profile in real time. When tested, the observer was shown to produce Te profiles that are consistent with the shape of the Thomson scattering data while rejecting much of the noise in the diagnostic data. Finally, the controller itself was tested in real time. This experiment showed that the controller is capable of tracking the electron temperature target at locations across the spatial profile.

Morosohk, Shira [Oak Ridge Associated Universities↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Experiments and Radiographs on the MegaJOuLe Neutron Imaging Radiography (MJOLNIR) Dense Plasma Focus

We report a dense plasma focus (DPF) is a relatively compact coaxial plasma gun, which completes its discharge as a Z-pinch. These devices are designed to operate at a variety of scales to produce short (<100 ns) pulses of ions, X-rays, and/or neutrons. LLNL recently constructed and brought into operation a new device, the MegaJOuLe Neutron Imaging Radiography (MJOLNIR) DPF, which is designed for radiography and high-yield operations. This device has been commissioned and has achieved neutron yields of up to 3.8E11 neutrons/pulse at 2.5-MA peak current while operating at up to 1 MJ of stored energy in its original pulsed power configuration. MJOLNIR is equipped with a wide range of diagnostics, including nuclear activation detectors, neutron time-of-flight (nToF) detectors, a fast-framing camera, optical light gates, and a time-gated neutron and X-ray imager. LLNL also runs unique particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of DPF discharges in the Chicago code and has gained significant insight into the various physical factors that influence neutron yield. MJOLNIR is one of the first DPFs whose design and continual upgrades are heavily influenced by model predictions. In this article, we describe insights from modeling, device operation, and recent results. Comparisons between modeling predictions and measurements, as well as X-ray and neutron images are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1984

Ground-based observations of equatorial thermosphere dynamics with a Fabry-Perot interferometer

Fabry-Perot determinations of thermospheric temperatures from 630.0 nm nightglow line width measurements were carried out for the period April to August, 1983. The nightly variation of the thermospheric temperature measured on 53 nights is compared with MSIS model predictions and found to agree occasionally with the model but, on the average, to exceed model predictions by approximately 180 K. The largest differences, 400 to 500 K occur during strongly increasing geomagnetic activity. Significant differences occur both during high geomagnetic/low solar activity and during low geomagnetic/high solar activity.

Meriwether, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Measured response of the equatorial thermospheric temperature to geomagnetic activity and solar flux changes

Fabry-Perot inteferometer determinations of thermospheric temperatures from 630.0-nm nightglow line-width measurements have been carried out for the period April-August 1983 from Arequipa, Peru (16.4-deg S, 71.5-deg W geographic; 4.4-deg S magnetic). The nightly variation of the thermospheric temperature T(n) measured on 62 nights is compared with MSIS model predictions and found to agree occasionally with the model but, on average, to exceed model predictions by about 180 K. The largest differences, 400-500 K, often occur during strongly increasing geomagnetic activity such as sudden commencements. The rapid increases in T(n) may result from energetic neutrals precipitating at low latitudes from the ring current or from energy carried to equatorial regions from high-latitude (auroral oval) heat sources by gravity waves and equatorward neutral winds.

Biondi, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Micromechanisms of thermomechanical fatigue: A comparison with isothermal fatigue

Thermomechanical Fatigue (TMF) experiments were conducted on Mar-M 200, B-1900, and PWA-1480 (single crystals) over temperature ranges representative of gas turbine airfoil environments. The results were examined from both a phenomenological basis and a micromechanical basis. Depending on constituents present in the superalloy system, certain micromechanisms dominated the crack initiation process and significantly influenced the TMF lives as well as sensitivity of the material to the type TMF cycle imposed. For instance, high temperature cracking around grain boundary carbides in Mar-M 200 resulted in short in-phase TMF lives compared to either out-of-phase or isothermal lives. In single crystal PWA-1480, the type of coating applied was seen to be the controlling factor in determining sensitivity to the type of TMF cycle imposed. Micromechanisms of deformation were observed over the temperature range of interest to the TMF cycles, and provided some insight as to the differences between TMF damage mechanisms and isothermal damage mechanisms. Finally, the applicability of various life prediction models to TMF results was reviewed. Current life prediction models based on isothermal data must be modified before being generally applied to TMF.

Bill, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Heating of the solar middle chromosphere by large-scale electric currents

A global resistive, two-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model is used to introduce and support the hypothesis that the quiet solar middle chromosphere is heated by resistive dissipation of large-scale electric currents which fill most of its volume. The scale height and maximum magnitude of the current density are 400 km and 31.3 m/sq m, respectively. The associated magnetic field is almost horizontal, has the same scale height as the current density, and has a maximum magnitude of 153 G. The current is carried by electrons flowing across magnetic field lines at 1 m/s. The resistivity is the electron contribution to the Pedersen resitivity for a weakly ionized, strongly magnetized, hydrogen gas. The model does not include a driving mechanism. Most of the physical quantities in the model decrease exponentially with time on a resistive timescale of 41.3 minutes. However, the initial values and spatial; dependence of these quantities are expected to be essentially the same as they would be if the correct driving mechanism were included in a more general model. The heating rate per unit mass is found to be 4.5 x 10(exp 9) ergs/g/s, independent of height and latitude. The electron density scale height is found to be 800 km. The model predicts that 90% of the thermal energy required to heat the middle chromosphere is deposited in the height range 300-760 km above the temperature minimum. It is shown to be consistent to assume that the radiation rate per unit volume is proportional to the magnetic energy density, and then it follows that the heating rate per unit volume is also proportional to the energy from the photosphere into the overlying chromosphere are briefly discussed as possible driving mechanisms for establishing and maintaining the current system. The case in which part of or all of the current is carried by protons and metal ions, and the contribution of electron-proton scattering to the current are also considered, with the conclusion that these effects do not change the qualitative prediction of the model, but probably change the quantitative predictions slightly, mainly by increasing the maximum magntiude of the current density and magnetic field to at most approximately 100 mA/m and approximately 484 G, respectively. The heating rate per unit mass, current density scale height, magnetic field scale height, temperatures, and pressures are unchanged or are only slightly changed by including these additional effects due to protons and ions.

Goodman, M. L.↗