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NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Upscaling of 500 °C Durable SiC JFET-R Integrated Circuits

At HiTEC 2018, NASA Glenn Research Center reported the first demonstration of yearlong 500 °C operation of ceramic-packaged “Generation 10” ~200-transistor integrated circuits (ICs) based on two-level interconnect silicon carbide (4H-SiC) junction field effect transistors and resistors (JFET-R). This HiTEC 2021 submission updates on-going efforts at NASA Glenn spanning two subsequent prototype IC generations “11 and 12” to increase both complexity and durability of these ICs. Increased chip complexities of around 1000 transistors/chip for Gen. 11 and near 3000 transistors/chip for Gen. 12 are made possible by reductions in minimum layout feature sizes (including resistor width shrinkage from 6 µm to 2 µm) coupled with enlarged die size (from 3 x 3 mm to 5 x 5 mm). Gen. 11 ICs electrically tested to date include an 8-bit delta-sigma analog to digital converter (ADC) as well as upscaled random access memory (RAM) and nearly 1 kbit read only memory (ROM). However, Gen. 11 prototype ICs exhibited significantly lower yield and durability than Gen. 10 ICs. Development of revised processing is being investigated towards mitigating these issues in subsequent Gen. 12 fabrication run currently in progress.

silicon carbide↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification Uncertainty in Inverse Material Model Parameter Determination: A Sensitivity‐Based Decision Process for Load Path Selection

This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.

Fayad, Samuel S. [University of Illinois at Urbana↗

DOE OSTI2022

Examining AGN UV/Optical Variability beyond the Simple Damped Random Walk

We present damped harmonic oscillator (DHO) light-curve modeling for a sample of 12,714 spectroscopically confirmed quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region. DHO is a second-order continuous-time autoregressive moving-average process, which can be fully described using four independent parameters: a natural oscillation frequency (ω 0 ), a damping ratio (ξ), a characteristic perturbation timescale (τ perturb ), and an amplitude for the perturbing white noise (σ ϵ ). The asymptotic variability amplitude of a DHO process is quantified by σ DHO —a function of ω 0 , ξ, τ perturb , and σ ϵ . We find that both τ perturb and σ ϵ follow different dependencies with rest-frame wavelength (λ RF ) on either side of 2500 Å, whereas σ DHO follows a single power-law relation with λ RF . After correcting for wavelength dependence, σ DHO exhibits anticorrelations with both the Eddington ratio and the black hole mass, while τ perturb —with a typical value of days in the rest frame—shows an anticorrelation with the bolometric luminosity. Modeling active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability as a DHO offers more insight into the workings of accretion disks close to the supermassive black holes at the center of AGN. The newly discovered short-term variability (characterized by τ perturb and σ ϵ ) and its correlation with bolometric luminosity pave the way for new algorithms that will derive fundamental properties (e.g., Eddington ratio) of AGN using photometric data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Bursting Bubbles from Combustion of Thermoplastic Materials in Microgravity

Many thermoplastic materials in common use for a wide range of applications, including spacecraft, develop bubbles internally as they burn due to chemical reactions taking place within the bulk. These bubbles grow and migrate until they burst at the surface, forceably ejecting volatile gases and, occasionally, molten fuel. In experiments in normal gravity, Kashiwagi and Ohlemiller observed vapor jets extending a few centimeters from the surface of a radiatively heated polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) sample, with some molten material ejected into the gas phase. These physical phenomena complicated the combustion process considerably. In addition to the non-steady release of volatiles, the depth of the surface layer affected by oxygen was increased, attributed to the roughening of the surface by bursting events. The ejection of burning droplets in random directions presents a potential fire hazard unique to microgravity. In microgravity combustion experiments on nylon Velcro fasteners and on polyethylene wire insulation, the presence of bursting fuel vapor bubbles was associated with the ejection of small particles of molten fuel as well as pulsations of the flame. For the nylon fasteners, particle velocities were higher than 30 cm/sec. The droplets burned robustly until all fuel was consumed, demonstrating the potential for the spread of fire in random directions over an extended distance. The sequence of events for a bursting bubble has been photographed by Newitt et al.. As the bubble reaches the fluid surface, the outer surface forms a dome while the internal bubble pressure maintains a depression at the inner interface. Liquid drains from the dome until it breaks into a cloud of droplets on the order of a few microns in size. The bubble gases are released rapidly, generating vortices in the quiescent surroundings and transporting the tiny droplets. The depression left by the escaping gases collapses into a central jet, which rises with a high velocity and may break up, releasing one or more relatively large drops (on the order of a millimeter in these experiments). A better understanding of bubble development and bursting processes, the effects of bursting behavior on burning rate of the bulk material, and the circumstances under which large droplets are expelled, as well as their trajectories, sizes, and burning rates, is sought through computer modeling compared with experiment.

Butler, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Processing of laser formed SiC powder

Processing research was undertaken to demonstrate that superior SiC characteristics could be achieved through the use of ideal constituent powders and careful post-synthesis processing steps. Initial research developed the means to produce approximately 1000 A uniform diameter, nonagglomerated, spherical, high purity SiC powders. Accomplishing this goal required major revision of the particle formation and growth model from one based on classical nucleation and growth to one based on collision and coalescence of Si particles followed by their carburization. Dispersions based on pure organic solvents as well as steric stabilization were investigated. Test parts were made by the colloidal pressing technique; both liquid filtration and consolidation (rearrangement) stages were modeled. Green densities corresponding to a random close packed structure were achieved. After drying, parts were densified at temperatures ranging from 1800 to 2100 C. This research program accomplished all of its major objectives. Superior microstructures and properties were attained by using powders having ideal characteristics and special post-synthesis processing procedures.

Haggerty, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Application of Simulated Annealing and Related Algorithms to TWTA Design

Simulated Annealing (SA) is a stochastic optimization algorithm used to search for global minima in complex design surfaces where exhaustive searches are not computationally feasible. The algorithm is derived by simulating the annealing process, whereby a solid is heated to a liquid state and then cooled slowly to reach thermodynamic equilibrium at each temperature. The idea is that atoms in the solid continually bond and re-bond at various quantum energy levels, and with sufficient cooling time they will rearrange at the minimum energy state to form a perfect crystal. The distribution of energy levels is given by the Boltzmann distribution: as temperature drops, the probability of the presence of high-energy bonds decreases. In searching for an optimal design, local minima and discontinuities are often present in a design surface. SA presents a distinct advantage over other optimization algorithms in its ability to escape from these local minima. Just as high-energy atomic configurations are visited in the actual annealing process in order to eventually reach the minimum energy state, in SA highly non-optimal configurations are visited in order to find otherwise inaccessible global minima. The SA algorithm produces a Markov chain of points in the design space at each temperature, with a monotonically decreasing temperature. A random point is started upon, and the objective function is evaluated at that point. A stochastic perturbation is then made to the parameters of the point to arrive at a proposed new point in the design space, at which the objection function is evaluated as well. If the change in objective function values (Delta)E is negative, the proposed new point is accepted. If (Delta)E is positive, the proposed new point is accepted according to the Metropolis criterion: rho((Delta)f) = exp((-Delta)E/T), where T is the temperature for the current Markov chain. The process then repeats for the remainder of the Markov chain, after which the temperature is decremented and the process repeats. Eventually (and hopefully), a near-globally optimal solution is attained as T approaches zero. Several exciting variants of SA have recently emerged, including Discrete-State Simulated Annealing (DSSA) and Simulated Tempering (ST). The DSSA algorithm takes the thermodynamic analogy one step further by categorizing objective function evaluations into discrete states. In doing so, many of the case-specific problems associated with fine-tuning the SA algorithm can be avoided; for example, theoretical approximations for the initial and final temperature can be derived independently of the case. In this manner, DSSA provides a scheme that is more robust with respect to widely differing design surfaces. ST differs from SA in that the temperature T becomes an additional random variable in the optimization. The system is also kept in equilibrium as the temperature changes, as opposed to the system being driven out of equilibrium as temperature changes in SA. ST is designed to overcome obstacles in design surfaces where numerous local minima are separated by high barriers. These algorithms are incorporated into the optimal design of the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA). The area under scrutiny is the collector, in which it would be ideal to use negative potential to decelerate the spent electron beam to zero kinetic energy just as it reaches the collector surface. In reality this is not plausible due to a number of physical limitations, including repulsion and differing levels of kinetic energy among individual electrons. Instead, the collector is designed with multiple stages depressed below ground potential. The design of this multiple-stage collector is the optimization problem of interest. One remaining problem in SA and DSSA is the difficulty in determining when equilibrium has been reached so that the current Markov chain can be terminated. It has been suggested in recent literature that simulating the thermodynamic properties opecific heat, entropy, and internal energy from the Boltzmann distribution can provide good indicators of having reached equilibrium at a certain temperature. These properties are tested for their efficacy and implemented in SA and DSSA code with respect to TWTA collector optimization.

Radke, Eric M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microbial inoculum effects on the rumen epithelial transcriptome and rumen epimural metatranscriptome in calves

Manipulation of the rumen microbial ecosystem in early life may affect ruminal fermentation and enhance the productive performance of dairy cows. The objective of this experiment was to evaluate the effects of dosing three different types of microbial inoculum on the rumen epithelium tissue (RE) transcriptome and the rumen epimural metatranscriptome (REM) in dairy calves. For this objective, 15 Holstein bull calves were enrolled in the study at birth and assigned to three different intraruminal inoculum treatments dosed orally once weekly from three to six weeks of age. The inoculum treatments were prepared from rumen contents collected from rumen fistulated lactating cows and were either autoclaved (control; ARF), processed by differential centrifugation to create the bacterial-enriched inoculum (BE), or through gravimetric separation to create the protozoal-enriched inoculum (PE). Calves were fed 2.5 L/d pasteurized waste milk 3x/d from 0 to 7 weeks of age and texturized starter until euthanasia at 9 weeks of age, when the RE tissues were collected for transcriptome and microbial metatranscriptome analyses, from four randomly selected calves from each treatment. The different types of inoculum altered the RE transcriptome and REM. Compared to ARF, 9 genes were upregulated in the RE of BE and 92 in PE, whereas between BE and PE there were 13 genes upregulated in BE and 114 in PE. Gene ontology analysis identified enriched GO terms in biological process category between PE and ARF, with no enrichment between BE and ARF. The RE functional signature showed different KEGG pathways related to BE and ARF, and no specific KEGG pathway for PE. We observed a lower alpha diversity index for RE microbiome in ARF (observed genera and Chao1 (p < 0.05)). Five microbial genera showed a significant correlation with the changes in host gene expression: Roseburia (25 genes), Entamoeba (two genes); Anaerosinus, Lachnospira, and Succiniclasticum were each related to one gene. sPLS-DA analysis showed that RE microbial communities differ among the treatments, although the taxonomic and functional microbial profiles show different distributions. Co-expression Differential Network Analysis indicated that both BE and PE had an impact on the abundance of KEGG modules related to acyl-CoA synthesis, type VI secretion, and methanogenesis, while PE had a significant impact on KEGGs related to ectoine biosynthesis and D-xylose transport. Our study indicated that artificial dosing with different microbial inocula in early life alters not only the RE transcriptome, but also affects the REM and its functions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Dynamic effects of combustion

The dynamic effects of combustion are due to the evolution of exothermic energy and its deposition in the compressible medium where the process takes place. The paper examines the dynamics of combustion phenomena, including ignition, turbulent flame propagation (inflammation), explosion, and detonation, with emphasis on their exothermic characteristics. Ignition and explosion are treated as problems of nonlinear mechanics, and their dynamic behavior is described in terms of phase space models and cinematographic laser shear interferograms. The results of a numerical random vortex model of turbulent flame propagation are confirmed in a combustion tunnel experiment, where it was observed that a fresh mixture of burnt and unburnt gases can sustain combustion with a relatively small expenditure of overall mass flow, due to the increasing specific volume of burnt gases inside the flame front. An isentropic pressure wave is found to precede the accelerating flame in the process of detonation, and components of this presssure wave are shown to propagate at local sonic velocities.

Oppenheim, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Study of Antarctic Blowing Snow Storms Using MODIS and CALIOP Observations With a Machine Learning Model

As a common phenomenon over Antarctica, blowing snow (BLSN), especially the large BLSN storms, play an important role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, radiation budget, and planetary boundary layer processes. This study presents the work on BLSN storm identification and analysis with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite. Spectral analysis shows that BLSN identification is feasible with MODIS daytime data. A random forest machine learning model is developed and observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization are used for training. Model performance results show that machine‐learning based classification can achieve over 90% overall accuracy when classifying MODIS pixels into cloud, clear, and BLSN categories. The machine learning model is applied to MODIS observations during the month of October 2009 for BLSN storm analysis. Results show that the size of BLSN storms has a large spectrum and can reach hundreds of thousands km2. The MODIS based BLSN storm frequency map extends the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations coverage limit from 82°S to the South Pole. A BLSN storm belt, which extends from the South Pole region to the coastal area between 130°E and 160°E along the Transantarctic Mountains, provides a potential pathway of snow transport. These results are important in improving the understanding of BLSN impact on Antarctic surface mass balance and boundary layer processes.

Antarctic↗

NASA NTRS2010

Processing Nanostructured Sensors Using Microfabrication Techniques

Standard microfabrication techniques can be implemented and scaled to help assemble nanoscale microsensors. Currently nanostructures are often deposited onto materials primarily by adding them to a solution, then applying the solution in a thin film. This results in random placement of the nanostructures with no controlled order, and no way to accurately reproduce the placement. This method changes the means by which microsensors with nanostructures are fabricated. The fundamental advantage to this approach is that it enables standard microfabrication techniques to be applied in the repeated manufacture of nanostructured sensors on a microplatform.

Hunter, Gary W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mass and Reliability Source (MaRS) Database

The Mass and Reliability Source (MaRS) Database consolidates components mass and reliability data for all Oribital Replacement Units (ORU) on the International Space Station (ISS) into a single database. It was created to help engineers develop a parametric model that relates hardware mass and reliability. MaRS supplies relevant failure data at the lowest possible component level while providing support for risk, reliability, and logistics analysis. Random-failure data is usually linked to the ORU assembly. MaRS uses this data to identify and display the lowest possible component failure level. As seen in Figure 1, the failure point is identified to the lowest level: Component 2.1. This is useful for efficient planning of spare supplies, supporting long duration crewed missions, allowing quicker trade studies, and streamlining diagnostic processes. MaRS is composed of information from various databases: MADS (operating hours), VMDB (indentured part lists), and ISS PART (failure data). This information is organized in Microsoft Excel and accessed through a program made in Microsoft Access (Figure 2). The focus of the Fall 2017 internship tour was to identify the components that were the root cause of failure from the given random-failure data, develop a taxonomy for the database, and attach material headings to the component list. Secondary objectives included verifying the integrity of the data in MaRS, eliminating any part discrepancies, and generating documentation for future reference. Due to the nature of the random-failure data, data mining had to be done manually without the assistance of an automated program to ensure positive identification.

Valdenegro, Wladimir↗

DOE OSTI2019

X-Ray Stereo Digital Image Correlation

Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is a well-established, non-contact diagnostic technique used to measure shape, displacement and strain of a solid specimen subjected to loading or deformation. Yet, measurements using standard DIC can have significant errors or be completely infeasible in challenging experiments, such as explosive, combustion, or fluid-structure interaction applications, where beam-steering due to index of refraction variation biases measurements or where the sample is engulfed in flames or soot. To address these challenges, we propose using X-ray imaging instead of visible light imaging for stereo-DIC, since refraction of X-rays is negligible in many situations, and X-rays can penetrate occluding material. Two techniques of creating an appropriate pattern for X-ray DIC are presented, both based on adding a dense material in a random speckle pattern on top of a less-dense specimen. A standard dot-calibration target is adapted for X-ray imaging, allowing the common bundle-adjustment calibration process in commercial stereo-DIC software to be used. High-quality X-ray images with sufficient signal-to-noise ratios for DIC are obtained for aluminum specimens with thickness up to 22.2 mm, with a speckle pattern thickness of only 80 μm of tantalum. The accuracy and precision of X-ray DIC measurements are verified through simultaneous optical and X-ray stereo-DIC measurements during rigid in-plane and out-of-plane translations, where errors in the X-ray DIC displacements were approximately 2–10 μm for applied displacements up to 20 mm. Finally, a vast reduction in measurement error—5–20 times reduction of displacement error and 2–3 times reduction of strain error—is demonstrated, by comparing X-ray and optical DIC when a hot plate induced a heterogeneous index of refraction field in the air between the specimen and the imaging systems. Subsequently, these findings show the feasibility of using X-ray-based stereo-DIC for non-contact measurements in exacting experimental conditions, where optical DIC cannot be used.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Approximating a linear multiplicative objective in watershed management optimization

Implementing management practices in a cost-efficient manner is critical for regional efforts to reduce the amount of pollutants entering the Chesapeake Bay. We study the problem of selecting a subset of practices that minimizes pollutant load—subject to budgetary and environmental constraints—as simulated in a widely used regulatory watershed model. Mimicking the computation of pollutant load in the regulatory model, we formulate this problem as a continuous optimization model with a linear multiplicative objective function and linear constraints. To lay the groundwork for incorporating additional stakeholder requirements in the future, especially those that would require integer variables, we present and study a continuous linear optimization model that approximates the nonlinear model. The linear model, which requires an exponential number of variables, arises naturally as an alternative model for the same underlying physical process. We examine the theoretical behavior of these optimization models and investigate restrictions of the linear model to handle its large number of variables. Through extensive computational tests on real and randomly generated instances, we demonstrate that the linear model and its restrictions provide optimal solutions close to those of the nonlinear model in practice, despite poor approximation properties in the worst case. We conclude that the linear model—together with our approach to handling its large number of variables—provides a viable framework from which to extend the optimization model to better meet the needs of the Chesapeake Bay watershed management stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Standoff enrichment analysis of UF 6 cylinders

We investigate a new safeguards approach for verification of uranium processing operations via standoff measurement of UF 6 cylinder transports entering and leaving a facility. Current safeguards verification at facilities with UF 6 cylinders includes attended enrichment measurements of several randomly-selected cylinders using handheld instruments with inspection of all the cylinders typically only once a year. This approach requires significant inspector effort and can only be performed intermittently. Here we explore an unattended, multi-sensor enrichment measurement system that can operate continuously on cylinders in motion. Such an approach could be used to enhance continuity of knowledge by verifying that all shipments entering and leaving a facility are consistent with declared operations. The challenges in developing a standoff enrichment technique include limited statistical significance of the collected data, and interpreting the complex signatures from a shipment of UF 6 cylinders. These signatures vary with cylinder properties (e.g. the fuel cycle history, cylinder history, material distribution, material age, etc.) and measurement conditions (e.g. speed and distance of vehicle, detector response, cylinder orientation, attenuation from overpack and vehicle, etc.). We demonstrate that we can extract useful enrichment signatures from standoff measurements of UF 6 cylinders entering and leaving a facility. Our initial analysis demonstrates a measurable difference in enrichment-related signatures from a cylinder in motion, measured with modest detection efficiency from several meters away. We also demonstrate that the inclusion of vehicle tracking increases the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of our radiation signatures, and decreases uncertainty of parameters needed for enrichment analysis, e.g. distance and velocity.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗