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DOE OSTI2013

MODEL-FREE MULTI-PROBE LENSING RECONSTRUCTION OF CLUSTER MASS PROFILES

Lens magnification by galaxy clusters induces characteristic spatial variations in the number counts of background sources, amplifying their observed fluxes and expanding the area of sky, the net effect of which, known as magnification bias, depends on the intrinsic faint-end slope of the source luminosity function. The bias is strongly negative for red galaxies, dominated by the geometric area distortion, whereas it is mildly positive for blue galaxies, enhancing the blue counts toward the cluster center. We generalize the Bayesian approach of Umetsu et al. for reconstructing projected cluster mass profiles, by incorporating multiple populations of background sources for magnification-bias measurements and combining them with complementary lens-distortion measurements, effectively breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and improving the statistical precision of cluster mass measurements. The approach can be further extended to include strong-lensing projected mass estimates, thus allowing for non-parametric absolute mass determinations in both the weak and strong regimes. We apply this method to our recent CLASH lensing measurements of MACS J1206.2-0847, and demonstrate how combining multi-probe lensing constraints can improve the reconstruction of cluster mass profiles. This method will also be useful for a stacked lensing analysis, combining all lensing-related effects in the cluster regime, for a definitive determination of the averaged mass profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Prospects for direct detection of dark matter in an effective theory approach

We perform the first comprehensive analysis of the prospects for direct detection of dark matter with future ton-scale detectors in the general 11-dimensional effective theory of isoscalar dark matter-nucleon interactions mediated by a heavy spin-1 or spin-0 particle. The theory includes 8 momentum and velocity dependent dark matter-nucleon interaction operators, besides the familiar spin-independent and spin-dependent operators. From a variegated sample of 27 benchmark points selected in the parameter space of the theory, we simulate independent sets of synthetic data for ton-scale Germanium and Xenon detectors. From the synthetic data, we then extract the marginal posterior probability density functions and the profile likelihoods of the model parameters. The associated Bayesian credible regions and frequentist confidence intervals allow us to assess the prospects for direct detection of dark matter at the 27 benchmark points. First, we analyze the data assuming the knowledge of the correct dark matter nucleon-interaction type, as it is commonly done for the familiar spin-independent and spin-dependent interactions. Then, we analyze the simulations extracting the dark matter-nucleon interaction type from the data directly, in contrast to standard analyses. This second approach requires an extensive exploration of the full 11-dimensional parameter space of the dark matter-nucleon effective theory. Interestingly, we identify 5 scenarios where the dark matter mass and the dark matter-nucleon interaction type can be reconstructed from the data simultaneously. We stress the importance of extracting the dark matter nucleon-interaction type from the data directly, discussing the main challenges found addressing this complex 11-dimensional problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Solar Activity Relations in Energetic Electron Events Measured By the MESSENGER Mission

Aims. We perform a statistical study of the relations between the properties of solar energetic electron (SEE) events measured by the MESSENGER mission from 2010 to 2015 and the parameters of the respective parent solar activity phenomena in order to identify the potential correlations between them. During the time of analysis, the MESSENGER heliocentric distance varied between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Methods. We used a published list of 61 SEE events measured by MESSENGER, which includes information on the near-relativistic electron peak intensities, the peak-intensity energy spectral indices, and the measured X-ray peak intensity of the flares related to the SEE events. Taking advantage of multi-viewpoint remote-sensing observations, we reconstructed, whenever possible, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shock waves; and we determined the three-dimensional (3D) properties (location, speed, and width) of the CMEs and the maximum speed of the 3D CME-driven shocks in the corona. We used different methods (Spearman, Pearson, and a Bayesian approach, namely the Kelly method to linear regression) to estimate the correlation coefficients between the flare intensity, maximum speed at the apex of the CME-driven shock, CME speed at the apex, and CME width with the electron peak intensities and with the energy spectral indices. In this statistical study, we considered and addressed the limitations of the particle instrument on board MESSENGER (elevated background intensity level, anti-Sun pointing). Results. There is an asymmetry to the east in the range of connection angles (CAs) for which the SEE events present the highest peak intensities, where the CA is the longitudinal separation between the footpoint of the magnetic field connecting to the spacecraft and the flare location. Based on this asymmetry, we define a subsample of well-connected events as when −65° ≤ CA ≤ +33°. For the well-connected sample, we find moderate to strong correlations between the near-relativistic electron peak intensity and the 3D CME-driven shock maximum speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.53 ± 0.05; Pearson: cc = 0.65 ± 0.04; Kelly: cc = 0.87 ± 0.20), the flare peak intensity (Spearman: cc = 0.63 ± 0.03; Pearson: cc = 0.59 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.74 ± 0.30), and the 3D CME speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.50 ± 0.04; Pearson: cc = 0.46 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.60 ± 0.39). When including poorly connected events (full sample), the relations between the peak intensities and the solar-activity phenomena are blurred, showing lower correlation coefficients. Conclusions. Based on the comparison of the correlation coefficients presented in this study using near 0.4 au data, (1) both flare and shock-related processes may contribute to the acceleration of near relativistic electrons in large SEE events, in agreement with previous studies based on near 1 au data; and (2) the maximum speed of the CME-driven shock is a better parameter to investigate particle-acceleration-related mechanisms than the average CME speed, as suggested by the stronger correlation with the SEE peak intensities.

Sun↗

DOE OSTI2013

Validation and Calibration of Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics Multiscale Multiphysics Models - Subcooled Flow Boiling Study

In addition to validation data plan, development of advanced techniques for calibration and validation of complex multiscale, multiphysics nuclear reactor simulation codes are a main objective of the CASL VUQ plan. Advanced modeling of LWR systems normally involves a range of physico-chemical models describing multiple interacting phenomena, such as thermal hydraulics, reactor physics, coolant chemistry, etc., which occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. To a large extent, the accuracy of (and uncertainty in) overall model predictions is determined by the correctness of various sub-models, which are not conservation-laws based, but empirically derived from measurement data. Such sub-models normally require extensive calibration before the models can be applied to analysis of real reactor problems. This work demonstrates a case study of calibration of a common model of subcooled flow boiling, which is an important multiscale, multiphysics phenomenon in LWR thermal hydraulics. The calibration process is based on a new strategy of model-data integration, in which, all sub-models are simultaneously analyzed and calibrated using multiple sets of data of different types. Specifically, both data on large-scale distributions of void fraction and fluid temperature and data on small-scale physics of wall evaporation were simultaneously used in this work’s calibration. In a departure from traditional (or common-sense) practice of tuning/calibrating complex models, a modern calibration technique based on statistical modeling and Bayesian inference was employed, which allowed simultaneous calibration of multiple sub-models (and related parameters) using different datasets. Quality of data (relevancy, scalability, and uncertainty) could be taken into consideration in the calibration process. This work presents a step forward in the development and realization of the “CIPS Validation Data Plan” at the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs to enable quantitative assessment of the CASL modeling of Crud-Induced Power Shift (CIPS) phenomenon, in particular, and the CASL advanced predictive capabilities, in general. This report is prepared for the Department of Energy’s Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs program’s VUQ Focus Area.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2012

Search for $W'\to t b $ in Events with Large Missing Transverse Energy and Jets with the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider

In the scope of the strong ongoing data analysis efforts of the CDF col- laboration at Fermilab, we present a search for the production of mas sive W1 bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark in p$\bar{p}$ collisions at √s = 1.96 TeV. To perform this search, we select events with large Missing Transverse Energy plus two or three jets, in which the W generated from top decays leptonically, and either the e or µ is lost or the τ is reconstructed as a jet. A complete study of the selected sample is discussed, including the creation and subsequent optimization of a Neural Network-based multivariate tool to reject the QCD multijet background from the signal region. Finally, we perform a likelihood-based multichannel Bayesian fit procedure on the invariant transverse mass of the Missing Transverse Energy and jets to extract 95% CL limits on σ(p$\bar{p}$ . → W') × B(W' → tb) for M W' = 200 GeV/c 2

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Metallicities of Emission-Line Galaxies from HST ACS PEARS and HST WFC3 ERS Grism Spectroscopy at 0.6 is less than z is less than 2.4

Galaxies selected on the basis of their emission line strength. show low metallicities, regardless of their redshifts. We conclude this from a sample of faint galaxies at redshifts between 0.6 < z < 2.4, selected by their prominent emission lines in low resolution grism spectra in the optiCa.i with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and in the near-infrared using Wide-Field Camera 3 (WFC3). Using a sample of 11 emission line galaxies (ELGs) at 0.6 < z < 2.4 with luminosities of -22 approx < MB approx -19 which have [OII], H-Beta, and [OIII] line flux measurements from the combination of two grism spectral surveys, we use the R23 method to derive the gas-phase oxygen abundances: 7.5 <12+log(0/H)<8.5. The galaxy stellar masses are derived using Bayesian based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pi MC(exp 2)) fitting of their Spectral Energy Distribution (SED), and span the mass range 8.1 < log(M(stellar)/M(solar)) < 10.1. These galaxies show a mass-metal1icity (M-L) and Luminosity-Metallicity (LZ) relation, which is offset by -<J.6 dex in meta1licity at given absolute magnitude and stellar mass relative to the local SDSS galaxies, as well as continuum selected DEEP2 samples at similar redshifts. The emission-line selected galaxies most resemble the local "green peas" galaxies and Lyman-alpha galaxies at z approx = 0.3 and z approx = 2.3 in the M-Z and L-Z relations and their morphologies. The G - M(sub 20) morphology analysis shows that 10 out of 11 show disturbed morphology, even as the star-forming regions are compact. These galaxies may be intrinsically metal poor, being at early stages of formation, or the low metallicities may be due to gas infall and accretion due to mergers.

Xia, Lifang↗

DOE OSTI2011

Fast alogorithms for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in large-scale linear inverse problems based on low-rank partial Hessian approximations

We consider the problem of estimating the uncertainty in large-scale linear statistical inverse problems with high-dimensional parameter spaces within the framework of Bayesian inference. When the noise and prior probability densities are Gaussian, the solution to the inverse problem is also Gaussian, and is thus characterized by the mean and covariance matrix of the posterior probability density. Unfortunately, explicitly computing the posterior covariance matrix requires as many forward solutions as there are parameters, and is thus prohibitive when the forward problem is expensive and the parameter dimension is large. However, for many ill-posed inverse problems, the Hessian matrix of the data misfit term has a spectrum that collapses rapidly to zero. We present a fast method for computation of an approximation to the posterior covariance that exploits the lowrank structure of the preconditioned (by the prior covariance) Hessian of the data misfit. Analysis of an infinite-dimensional model convection-diffusion problem, and numerical experiments on large-scale 3D convection-diffusion inverse problems with up to 1.5 million parameters, demonstrate that the number of forward PDE solves required for an accurate low-rank approximation is independent of the problem dimension. This permits scalable estimation of the uncertainty in large-scale ill-posed linear inverse problems at a small multiple (independent of the problem dimension) of the cost of solving the forward problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance Evaluation of an Offshore Wave Measurement Buoy in Monochromatic Waves

The accurate measurement of waves underpins marine energy resource characterization, device design, and project development. Datawell wave buoys are widely deployed and have long served as a trusted standard for wave measurements. We quantify the measurement performance, including wave elevation and energy flux estimation, of a Datawell DWR-MkIII buoy using prescribed monochromatic heave motions on a large-amplitude six-degree-of-freedom motion platform at the National Laboratory of the Rockies, assuming the buoy behaves as an ideal wave follower. Commanded motions were validated with an optical motion tracking system while buoy elevation and raw acceleration were recorded. Wave elevations were propagated to wave energy flux estimation using four methods, including one frequency-domain method and three time-domain methods. The Bayesian optimization was applied for design of experiments, and records from three test sites were also applied and evaluated in the present study. Results show two error regions within the nominal period range of 1.6 s to 30 s. For wave periods between 5 s and 25 s, the buoy provides accurate wave height measurements. For short periods less than 5 s, the 1.28 Hz sampling frequency induces sub-Nyquist artifacts that bias elevation and can drive maximum energy flux estimation errors above 100%. For long periods exceeding 25 s, the buoy reported elevation is underpredicted with error depending on period but relatively independent of wave height, with maximum wave height and wave energy flux errors reaching 64% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of three field-derived cases shows that frequency-domain estimates at 1.28 Hz agree within 2% of the corresponding 100 Hz estimates, while larger method-dependent differences are observed for the Hilbert method.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF): Description and Current Applications

Atmospheric scientists use different methods for interpreting satellite data. In the early days of satellite meteorology, the analysis of cloud pictures from satellites was primarily subjective. As computer technology improved, satellite pictures could be processed digitally, and mathematical algorithms were developed and applied to the digital images in different wavelength bands to extract information about the atmosphere in an objective way. The kind of mathematical algorithm one applies to satellite data may depend on the complexity of the physical processes that lead to the observed image, and how much information is contained in the satellite images both spatially and at different wavelengths. Imagery from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers has limited horizontal resolution, and the observed microwave radiances are the result of complex physical processes that are not easily modeled. For this reason, a type of algorithm called a Bayesian estimation method is utilized to interpret passive microwave imagery in an objective, yet computationally efficient manner.

Olson, William S.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Photo-dynamical analysis of three Kepler objects of interest with significant transit timing variations

KOI-227, KOI-319 and KOI-884 are identified here as (at least) two planet systems. For KOI-319 and KOI-884, the observed Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) of the inner transiting planet are used to detect an outer non-transiting planet. The outer planet in KOI-884 is ≅2.6 Jupiter masses and has the orbital period just narrow of the 3:1 resonance with the inner planet (orbital period ratio 2.93). The distribution of parameters inferred from KOI-319.01's TTVs is bimodal with either a ≅1.6 Neptune-mass (M{sub N}) planet wide of the 5:3 resonance (period 80.1 days) or a ≅1 Saturn-mass planet wide of the 7:3 resonance (period 109.2 days). The radial velocity measurements can be used in this case to determine which of these parameter modes is correct. KOI-227.01's TTVs with large ≅10 hr amplitude can be obtained for planetary-mass companions in various major resonances. Based on the Bayesian evidence, the current TTV data favor the outer 2:1 resonance with a companion mass ≅1.5 M{sub N}, but this solution implies a very large density of KOI-227.01. The inner and outer 3:2 resonance solutions with sub-Neptune-mass companions are physically more plausible, but will need to be verified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

Use of Stable Isotopes in Forensic Analysis of Microorganisms

The use of isotopic signatures for forensic analysis of biological materials is well-established, and the same general principles that apply to interpretation of stable isotope content of C, N, O, and H apply to the analysis of microorganisms. Heterotrophic microorganisms derive their isotopic content from their growth substrates, which are largely plant and animal products, and the water in their culture medium. Thus the isotope signatures of microbes are tied to their growth environment. The C, N, O, and H isotope ratios of spores have been demonstrated to constitute highly discriminating signatures for sample matching. They can rule out specific samples of media and/or water as possible production media, and can predict isotope ratio ranges of the culture media and water used to produce a given sample. These applications have been developed and tested through analyses of approximately 250 samples of Bacillus subtilis spores and over 500 samples of culture media, providing a strong statistical basis for data interpretation. A Bayesian statistical framework for integrating stable isotope data with other types of signatures derived from microorganisms has been able to characterize the culture medium used to produce spores of various Bacillus species, leveraging isotopic differences in different medium types and demonstrating the power of data integration for forensic investigations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Recent Progress on the Stochastic Objective Decision Aide (SODA) Application

Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, is engaged in development of a simple to use software application that utilizes stochastic techniques for the calculation of radiation doses associated with hypothetical radioactive material releases. This work is being performed through a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Safety Research and Development (NSR and D) Program. Initial progress on the application was reported previously. Recent additions to the application are reported here. The Stochastic Objective Decision Aide (SODA) provides an easy to use software application to help decision makers support their judgment about the need or lack of need for safety structures, systems, and components. SODA is not intended to replace traditional design basis accident dose calculation methodology, nor is it intended to replace existing software used to perform formal dose consequence calculations. Rather, SODA is intended to supplement information obtained from existing codes to give a decision maker more information about an accident scenario. SODA also provides a simple method to perform parametric or sensitivity studies on individual input parameters. Non-reactor nuclear facilities operated under the approval authority of the US DOE use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines merit the selection of safety structures, systems, or components (SSCs) to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Dose consequence calculations traditionally involve use of the 'five-factor' formula: ST = MAR.DR.ARF.RF.LPF where ST is the source term (Bq), MAR is the total available material-at-risk (Bq), DR is the damage ratio (no units), ARF is the airborne release fraction (no units), RF is the respirable fraction (no units), and LPF is the leak path factor (no units). Potential radiation doses are then calculated using: CED = χ/Q.BR.ST.DCF (2) where CED is the committed effective dose (Sv), χ/Q is the plume dispersion (s/m{sup 3}), BR is the breathing rate (m{sup 3}/s), ST is the source term (Bq), and DCF is the dose conversion factor (Sv/Bq). Conservative single value input parameters are typically used to represent ARF, RF, LPF and BR. The traditional methodology, while conservative, can lead to skewed conclusions in the balance between cost and risk reduction resulting in over engineered systems with greater design, construction and operating costs. Rather than using a bounding single point value for each parameter in the dose consequence calculation, SODA uses distributions for some or all of the parameters. Each input parameter distribution is stochastically sampled and the resulting dose consequence calculation is repeated many times to develop a dose consequence distribution. The resulting distribution provides more information for the decision maker to rely upon when determining the need for safety SSCs. The SODA application was developed using MATLAB and it incorporates the use of Monte Carlo techniques as well as a graphical user interface (GUI). The application includes user selection of the governing distribution for parameters such as the MAR, DR, ARF, RF, LPF,χ/Q, BR, and DCF. While MATLAB was used for the development work, the application is distributed as a self-contained executable program. Features of the application include pull down menus with available distributions for the various parameters. The user has the option to plot the input parameter distribution that results from the random sampling process. The resulting dose consequence distribution is automatically analyzed to determine its similarity to well know distributions. This was done using the Bayesian Information Criterion method. If the resulting distribution is sufficiently similar to a well-known distribution, the application provides information about the distributions such as the mean value and other parameters. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2012

METALLICITIES OF EMISSION-LINE GALAXIES FROM HST ACS PEARS AND HST WFC3 ERS GRISM SPECTROSCOPY AT 0.6 < z < 2.4

Galaxies selected on the basis of their emission-line strength show low metallicities, regardless of their redshifts. We conclude this from a sample of faint galaxies at redshifts between 0.6 < z < 2.4, selected by their prominent emission lines in low-resolution grism spectra in the optical with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on the Hubble Space Telescope and in the near-infrared using Wide-Field Camera 3. Using a sample of 11 emission-line galaxies at 0.6 < z < 2.4 with luminosities of -22 {approx}< M{sub B} {approx}< -19 which have [O II], H{beta}, and [O III] line flux measurements from the combination of two grism spectral surveys, we use the R23 method to derive the gas-phase oxygen abundances: 7.5 < 12 + log (O/H) < 8.5. The galaxy stellar masses are derived using Bayesian-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo ({pi}MC{sup 2}) fitting of their spectral energy distribution, and span the mass range 8.1 < log (M{sub *}/M{sub Sun} ) < 10.1. These galaxies show mass-metallicity (M-Z) and luminosity-metallicity (L-Z) relations, which are offset by -0.6 dex in metallicity at given absolute magnitude and stellar mass relative to the local Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies, as well as continuum-selected DEEP2 samples at similar redshifts. The emission-line-selected galaxies most resemble the local 'green peas' galaxies and Ly{alpha} galaxies at z {approx_equal} 0.3 and z {approx_equal} 2.3 in the M-Z and L-Z relations and their morphologies. The G - M{sub 20} morphology analysis shows that 10 out of 11 show disturbed morphology, even as the star-forming regions are compact. These galaxies may be intrinsically metal poor, being at early stages of formation, or the low metallicities may be due to gas infall and accretion due to mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systematic study of the validity of the eikonal model including uncertainties

Nuclear reactions at intermediate beam energies are often interpreted using the eikonal model. In the analysis of complex reaction probes, where few-body reaction methods are needed, the eikonal method may be used as an efficient way for describing the fragment-target reaction process. In this work, we perform a systematic study to test the validity of the eikonal approximation for nucleon-nucleus reactions. We also quantify uncertainties due to the nucleon optical potential on reaction observables. We inspect the validity of the eikonal model and its semiclassical correction by comparing it to exact solutions (obtained from solving the optical-model equation with a finite-differences method) for a wide range of reactions. We also study the effect of relativistic corrections, both kinematic and dynamic, by effectively incorporating the relativistic effects at intermediate energies. The uncertainties from a Bayesian global optical potential (KDUQ) are propagated to the observables of interest. Our study includes neutron and proton reactions on 27 Al , 40 Ca , 90 Zr , and 208 Pb , for a wide range of energies 𝐸 lab = 0–400 MeV. We calculate neutron-total cross sections (elastic and reactions) as well as proton-absorption cross sections as a function of beam energy, using the eikonal model, the eikonal model with a semiclassical correction, and the exact solution. Here, we also compute angular distributions for the methods above. Our results show that for the proton-absorption cross section, the eikonal model can be used down to around 60 MeV and the semiclassical correction extends its use to 30 MeV. However, the validity of the eikonal model for the neutron-total cross section only goes down to ≈120 MeV, a range extended to ≈ 50 MeV when using the semiclassical correction. We find the semiclassical correction to the eikonal model to be less effective in describing the angular distributions. The 1⁢𝜎 uncertainty intervals on the observables we studied is less than 5% for most of the energies considered, but increases rapidly for higher energies, namely energies outside the range of KDUQ (𝐸 lab > 200MeV).

Cluster models↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian characterization and forward propagation of the uncertainty in thermodynamic models for redox active materials

Demonstrating the thermodynamic efficiency of hydrogen conversion processes using various materials is a critical step in developing new technologies for storing concentrated solar energy, and is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. A main goal of this project is to calculate the uncertainty of the thermodynamic efficiency by calculating the uncertainty of the components that feed into the efficiency. Many different models and data sets were used to test the workflow. First, the models were fit to the data using a Bayesian Inference and a method called Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which found the maximum a priori parameters, and a posterior probability distribution of the parameters. Next, the different models were compared to each other using model evidence values. It was found that for cleaner data sets, overfitting had not yet been reached, and the most complicated model was ideal, but on the noisier data sets, the less complex models were favored because the more complicated models resulted in overfitting. Next, forward propagation was used to calculate the enthalpy change and its associated uncertainty. A few variations on the models were tried, such as fitting in a different variable, producing negligible or negative effects on the fits of the models. Thus, the original models were used. A sensitivity analysis was performed, and used to calculate the model error. On the cleaner data sets, there was very minimal experimental noise, and thus, all resulting error was from the model. With consideration of the model error, the models fit the data very well, and the simpler model had a high model error, as expected. All these components will then be used to calculate the thermodynamic efficiency of the different materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗