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DOE OSTI2017

Analysis of ENSO’s response to unforced variability and anthropogenic forcing using CESM

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record. Here we analyze the effect of coupled internal variability on changes in ENSO under anthropogenic global warming using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We present results from a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions and a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, consisting of historical hindcasts (1850–2005) and future projections to 2100 following representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Given this large single-model ensemble, we are able to use simple statistical analyses to compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) metrics, as well as how internal variability may change with global warming. Changes in eastern Pacific ENSO SST metrics due to climate change are secondary to the model’s natural modulations; however, central Pacific ENSO amplitude significantly decreases, to an extent comparable with natural modulations. We also assess the sensitivity of internal variability estimates to ensemble size. The primary role of natural modulations in this ensemble highlights the importance of careful assessment of ocean-atmosphere internal variability in ENSO projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Measuring Tropospheric Winds from Space Using a Coherent Doppler Lidar Technique

The global measurement of tropospheric wind profiles has been cited by the operational meteorological community as the most important missing element in the present and planned observing system. The most practical and economical method for obtaining this measurement is from low earth orbit, utilizing a Doppler lidar (laser radar) technique. Specifically, this paper will describe the coherent Doppler wind lidar (CDWL) technique, the design and progress of a current space flight project to fly such a system on the Space Shuttle, and plans for future flights of similar instruments. The SPARCLE (SPAce Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment) is a Shuttle-based instrument whose flight is targeted for March, 2001. The objectives of SPARCLE are three-fold: Confirm that the coherent Doppler lidar technique can measure line-of-sight winds to within 1-2 m/s accuracy; Collect data to permit validation and improvement of instrument performance models to enable better design of future missions; and Collect wind and backscatter data for future mission optimization and for atmospheric studies. These objectives reflect the nature of the experiment and its program sponsor, NASA's New Millennium Program. The experiment is a technology validation mission whose primary purpose is to provide a space flight validation of this particular technology. (It should be noted that the CDWL technique has successfully been implemented from ground-based and aircraft-based platforms for a number of years.) Since the conduct of the SPARCLE mission is tied to future decisions on the choice of technology for free-flying, operational missions, the collection of data is intrinsically tied to the validation and improvement of instrument performance models that predict the sensitivity and accuracy of any particular present or future instrument system. The challenges unique to space flight for an instrument such as SPARCLE and follow-ons include: Obtaining the required lidar sensitivity from the long distance of orbit height to the lower atmosphere; Maintaining optical alignments after launch to orbit, and during operations in "microgravity"; Obtaining pointing knowledge of sufficient accuracy to remove the speed of the spacecraft (and the rotating Earth) from the measurements; Providing sufficient power (not a problem on the Shuttle) and cooling to the instrument. The paper will describe the status and challenges of the SPARCLE project, the value of obtaining wind data from orbit, and will present a roadmap to future instruments for scientific research and operational meteorology.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Atmospheric Delay Statistics from Deep Space Network Arrays and Nearby Test Interferometers

Several techniques have been explored and demonstrated that allow for greater data return on space-to-ground links. Among these techniques, arraying several smaller diameter dish antennas together is one method used in several arenas. These arrays can achieve larger effective area and gain than are available from a single larger antenna. This technique is routinely used by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) at 8.4 GHz where the incoming signals are much weaker than those experienced by the near-Earth satellite community. When considering arraying at much higher frequencies such as 32 GHz deep-space Ka-band, the phase alignment of the individual antenna signals is significantly disrupted by atmospheric turbulence. Since 2012, several downlink array demonstrations have been conducted using 32 GHz carrier signals emitted by the deep space probes Cassini and Kepler. Site test interferometers (STIs) that receive signals from geostationary satellites have been deployed at all three DSN tracking complexes for long-term monitoring of atmospheric delay fluctuations. In a previous DSN array demonstration study involving the Cassini spacecraft, it was shown that statistics of the adjusted STI phase fluctuations matched the statistics of concurrent array demonstration phase fluctuations. These adjustments accounted for differences in antenna separation, elevation angle and spacecraft frequencies. The STI antenna separations were about 200 m and the DSN antenna separations were about 300 m. These adjustments made use of the thick-layer turbulence model that was applicable to the Goldstone desert climate during the summer months for which the data were acquired. In this paper, we report on the results of additional array demonstrations involving the Kepler spacecraft and compare the adjusted STI phase fluctuations with those seen by a nearby two-element array of 34 m diameter antennas tracking Kepler’s 32 GHz signal at the Goldstone, California and Madrid, Spain DSN sites. We also discuss results from a demonstration using an array over a longer 12.5 km baseline. The Cassini and Kepler array demonstrations were found to validate the long term statistics acquired from several years of STI data as well as the models used to adjust the statistics for the conditions of an array. These statistics represent reliable estimates of the phase fluctuations that would be seen by an array tracking a deep space signal after applying appropriate adjustments for a given array configuration, elevation angle profile and observing frequency.

Morabito, David D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation: Plans and Preparations

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program is an international partnership led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). GPM will improve climate, weather, and hydro-meteorological forecasts through more frequent and more accurate measurement of precipitation across the globe. This paper describes the concept, the planning, and the preparations for Ground Validation within the GPM program. Ground Validation (GV) plays an important role in the program by investigating and quantitatively assessing the errors within the satellite retrievals. These quantitative estimates of retrieval errors will assist the scientific community by bounding the errors within their research products. The two fundamental requirements of the GPM Ground Validation program are: (1) error characterization of the precipitation retrievals and (2) continual improvement of the satellite retrieval algorithms. These two driving requirements determine the measurements, instrumentation, and location for ground observations. This paper outlines GV plans for estimating the systematic and random components of retrieval error and for characterizing the spatial p d temporal structure of the error and plans for algorithm improvement in which error models are developed and experimentally explored to uncover the physical causes of errors within the retrievals. This paper discusses NASA locations for GV measurements as well as anticipated locations from international GPM partners. NASA's primary locations for validation measurements are an oceanic site at Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and a continental site in north-central Oklahoma at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program site.

Schwaller, M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bacterial response to spatial gradients of algal-derived nutrients in a porous microplate

Abstract Photosynthetic microalgae are responsible for 50% of the global atmospheric CO2 fixation into organic matter and hold potential as a renewable bioenergy source. Their metabolic interactions with the surrounding microbial community (the algal microbiome) play critical roles in carbon cycling, but due to methodological limitations, it has been challenging to examine how community development is influenced by spatial proximity to their algal host. Here we introduce a copolymer-based porous microplate to co-culture algae and bacteria, where metabolites are constantly exchanged between the microorganisms while maintaining physical separation. In the microplate, we found that the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum accumulated to cell abundances ~20 fold higher than under normal batch conditions due to constant replenishment of nutrients through the porous structure. We also demonstrate that algal-associated bacteria, both single isolates and complex communities, responded to inorganic nutrients away from their host as well as organic nutrients originating from the algae in a spatially predictable manner. These experimental findings coupled with a mathematical model suggest that host proximity and algal culture growth phase impact bacterial community development in a taxon-specific manner through organic and inorganic nutrient availability. Our novel system presents a useful tool to investigate universal metabolic interactions between microbes in aquatic ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Cloud-resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM) Version 3.3: description and applications of a virtual observatory

Ground-based observatories use multi-sensor observations to characterize cloud and precipitation properties. One of the challenges is how to design strategies to best use these observations to understand these properties and evaluate weather and climate models. This paper introduces the Cloud resolving model Radar SIMulator (CR-SIM), which uses output from high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) to emulate multi-wavelength, zenith-pointing, and scanning radar observables and multi-sensor (radar and lidar) products. CR-SIM allows direct comparison between an atmospheric model simulation and remote-sensing products using a forward-modeling framework consistent with the microphysical assumptions used in the atmospheric model. CR-SIM has the flexibility to easily incorporate additional microphysical modules, such as microphysical schemes and scattering calculations, and expand the applications to simulate multi-sensor retrieval products. In this paper, we present several applications of CR-SIM for evaluating the representativeness of cloud microphysics and dynamics in a CRM, quantifying uncertainties in radar-lidar integrated cloud products and multi-Doppler wind retrievals, and optimizing radar sampling strategy using observing system simulation experiments. These applications demonstrate the application of CR-SIM as a virtual observatory operator on high-resolution model output for a consistent comparison between model results and observations to aid interpretation of the differences and improve understanding of the representativeness errors due to the sampling limitations of the ground-based measurements. CR-SIM is licensed under the GNU GPL package and both the software and the user guide are publicly available to the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution

Regional sea surface temperature (SST) mode variabilities, especially the La Niña–like Pacific Ocean temperature pattern known as the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the associated heat redistribution within the ocean, are the leading mechanisms explaining the recent global warming hiatus. Here version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to examine how different phases of two leading decadal time scale SST modes, namely the IPO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), contribute to heat redistribution in the global ocean in the absence of time-evolving external forcings. The results show that both the IPO and AMO contribute a similar magnitude to global mean surface temperature and ocean heat redistribution. Both modes contribute warmer surface temperature and higher upper ocean heat content in their positive phase, and the reverse in their negative phase. Regionally, patterns of ocean heat distribution in the upper few hundred meters of the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean depend highly on the IPO phase via the IPO-associated changes in the subtropical cell. In the Atlantic, ocean heat content is primarily associated with the state of the AMO. The interconnections between the IPO, AMO, and global ocean heat distribution are established through the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. An in-phase variant of the IPO and AMO can lead to much higher surface temperatures and heat content changes than an out-of-phase variation. This result suggests that changes in the IPO and AMO are potentially capable of modulating externally forced SST and heat content trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Probing the transition from shallow to deep convection using ASR data and large-eddy simulations

Over the duration of this project, we have made the following advances. 1) We have developed a novel approach to obtain a Lagrangian view of convection from high-resolution numerical model through Lagrangian tracking. This approach nicely complements the more traditionally used Eulerian statistics. We have applied this approach to a range of problem. 2) We have looked into improving and extending our parameterizations based on stochastically entraining parcels, developed previously for shallow convection. 3) This grant also supported our effort on a paper where we compared cumulus parameterizations and cloud resolving models in terms of their linear response functions. This work will help the community to better evaluate and develop cumulus parameterization. 4) We have applied Lagrangian tracking to shallow convection, deep convection with and without convective organization to better characterize their dynamics and the transition between them. 5) We have devised a novel way of using Lagrangian to identify cold pools, an area identified as of great interest by the ASR community. Our algorithm has a number of advantages and in particular can handle merging cold pools more gracefully than existing techniques. 6) We demonstrated that we can, for the first time, correctly reproduce both the diurnal and seasonal cycle of the hydrologic cycle in the Amazon using a strategy that explicitly represents convection but parameterizes large-scale circulation. In addition we showed that the main cause of the wet season is the presence of an early morning fog, which insulate the surface from top of the atmosphere shortwave radiation. In essence this fog makes the day shorter because radiation cannot penetrate to the surface in the early morning. This is why all fluxes are reduced in the wet season compared to the dry season. 7) We have investigated the life cycle of cold pools and the role of surface diabatic heating. We show that surface heating can kill cold pols and reduce the number of large cold pools and the organization of convection. The effect is quite dramatic over land where the entire distribution of cold pools is modified, and the cold pools are much warmer and more humid with surface diabatic heating below the cold pools. The PI and the co-PI continue to work together on parameterization of cold pools.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Radionuclide Imaging Technologies for Biological Systems

The main objective of this project is to develop technologies and experimental techniques for studying the dynamics of physiological responses of plants to changes in their interface with the local environment and to educate a new generation of scientists in an interdisciplinary environment of biology, physics and engineering. Also an important goal is to perform measurements to demonstrate the new data that can be produced and made available to the plant-biology community using the imaging technologies and experimental techniques developed in this project. The study of the plant-environment interface includes a wide range of topics in plant physiology, e.g., the root-soil interface, resource availability, impact of herbivores, influence of microbes on root surface, and responses to toxins in the air and soil. The initial scientific motivation for our work is to improve understanding of the mechanisms for physiological responses to abrupt changes in the local environment, in particular, the responses that result in short-term adjustments in resource (e.g., sugars, nutrients and water) allocations. Data of time-dependent responses of plants to environmental changes are essential in developing mechanistic models for substance intake and resource allocation. Our approach is to use radioisotope tracing techniques to study whole-plant and plant organ (e.g., leaves, stems, roots) dynamical responses to abrupt changes in environmental conditions such as concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere, nutrient availability and lighting. To this aim we are collaborating with the Radiation Detector and Imaging Group at the Thomas Jefferson National Laboratory Facility (JLab) to develop gamma-ray and beta particle imaging systems optimized for plant studies. The radioisotope tracing measurements are conducted at the Phytotron facility at Duke University. The Phytotron is a controlled environment plant research facility with a variety of plant growth chambers. One chamber is dedicated to radioisotope labeling measurements. All measurements for this project were carried out in that specially equipped chamber. The radioisotopes used in this project were produced in the tandem accelerator laboratory operated by the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL). The target room where the isotopes are produced is located about 100 m from the Phytotron facility. The radioactive substances produced in the tandem laboratory are transported to the Phytotron through underground conduits that run between the two buildings.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Salinity Observing System: Recent Discoveries and the Way Forward

Advances in L-band microwave satellite radiometry in the past decade, pioneered by ESA's SMOS and NASA's Aquarius and SMAP missions, have demonstrated an unprecedented capability to observe global sea surface salinity (SSS) from space. Measurements from these missions are the only means to probe the very-near surface salinity (top cm), providing a unique monitoring capability for the interfacial exchanges of water between the atmosphere and the upper-ocean, and delivering a wealth of information on various salinity processes in the ocean, linkages with the climate and water cycle, including land-sea connections, and providing constraints for ocean prediction models. The satellite SSS data are complimentary to the existing in situ systems such as Argo that provide accurate depiction of large-scale salinity variability in the open ocean but under-sample mesoscale variability, coastal oceans and marginal seas, and energetic regions such as boundary currents and fronts. In particular, salinity remote sensing has proven valuable to systematically monitor the open oceans as well as coastal regions up to approximately 40 km from the coasts. This is critical to addressing societally relevant topics, such as land-sea linkages, coastal-open ocean exchanges, research in the carbon cycle, near-surface mixing, and air-sea exchange of gas and mass. In this paper, we provide a community perspective on the major achievements of satellite SSS for the aforementioned topics, the unique capability of satellite salinity observing system and its complementarity with other platforms, uncertainty characteristics of satellite SSS, and measurement versus sampling errors in relation to in situ salinity measurements. We also discuss the need for technological innovations to improve the accuracy, resolution, and coverage of satellite SSS, and the way forward to both continue and enhance salinity remote sensing as part of the integrated Earth Observing System in order to address societal needs.

Vinogradova, Nadya↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Hourly-Resolved Global Cloud Property Composite from Operational Satellites Imagers

Numerous applications in satellite remote sensing of surface properties, atmospheric state, composition, and radiation require accurate knowledge of the location and characteristics of clouds. Operational satellite imager radiances are valuable for cloud detection and for deriving many different physical parameters that can be used for a variety of weather, aviation, and energy applications. The NASA Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) applies a suite of algorithms to meteorological satellite data to provide cloud properties, radiative fluxes and other parameters on a global scale. This paper describes a new global high-resolution dataset of cloud properties made available for community use that is constructed from analyses of a constellation of meteorological satellite imagers. Data taken from Meteosat-8/9 and -11, Himawari-8/9, GOES-16, and -17/-18, Aqua, Terra, Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 are processed and composited on a 3-km grid to provide hourly global coverage. A historical multi-year dataset is available to serve various needs including modeling challenges related to cloud evaluations and parameterizations. Near real-time data products are also currently available between 60N and 60S. Efforts are underway to operationalize polar orbiting satellite cloud detection methods for low-latency applications over polar regions. The cloud detection and retrieval algorithms have been developed over many years to support NASA weather and climate programs such as the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). To improve the utility of the data products, machine learning and other innovative methods are applied in various ways to help minimize data product uncertainties under the most challenging conditions and to improve their consistency at all times of day. A brief description of the methods highlighting the unique aspects of the SatCORPS data products will be presented along with information on their status and availability.

SatCORPS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Atmospheric Research at the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Final Report)

The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was an international scientific expedition into the central Arctic sea ice to study the changing atmosphere-ice-ocean system and its key physical, chemical, and biological processes in a way that will support improved understanding and modeling of Arctic climate. The US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Research Measurement (ARM) Program operated its second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) as a major contribution to the expedition, and the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program supported this project to maximize the success of DOE’s involvement in MOSAiC. This project has enabled the successful collection of data through support of field operations plans, in-field operational implementation, oversight of real-time data quality, and representing DOE’s interests within the broader international MOSAiC endeavor. The project has promoted scientific research by facilitating and leading a number of efforts to develop value-added products that will support research, including products related to aerosol properties, trace gases, cloud properties, snowfall, the surface energy budget, and a merged product designed for model assessment. These products and related analyses have also contributed to numerous scientific publications on related themes as well as direct model evaluation. Lastly, the project has engaged in a great deal of communication and outreach activities that help to publicize and promote both MOSAiC and DOE’s specific contribution to a broad audience that includes the scientific community, program management, policy makers, and the general public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The E3SM Diagnostics Package (E3SM Diags v2.7): a Python-based diagnostics package for Earth system model evaluation

Abstract. The E3SM Diagnostics Package (E3SM Diags) is a modern, Python-based Earth system model (ESM) evaluation tool (with Python module name e3sm_diags), developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SM Diags provides a wide suite of tools for evaluating native E3SM output, as well as ESM data on regular latitude–longitude grids, including output from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) class models. E3SM Diags is modeled after the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Atmosphere Model Working Group (AMWG, 2022) diagnostics package. In its version 1 release, E3SM Diags included a set of core essential diagnostics to evaluate the mean physical climate from model simulations. As of version 2.7, more process-oriented and phenomenon-based evaluation diagnostics have been implemented, such as analysis of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), streamflow, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, tropical cyclones, ozone and aerosol properties. An in situ dataset from DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program has been integrated into the package for evaluating the representation of simulated cloud and precipitation processes. This tool is designed with enough flexibility to allow for the addition of new observational datasets and new diagnostic algorithms. Additional features include customizable figures; streamlined installation, configuration and execution; and multiprocessing for fast computation. The package uses an up-to-date observational data repository maintained by its developers, where recent datasets are added to the repository as they become available. Finally, several applications for the E3SM Diags module were introduced to fit a diverse set of use cases from the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Seesaw haze pollution in North China modulated by the sub-seasonal variability of atmospheric circulation

Utilizing a recent observational dataset of particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 µ m (PM 2.5 ) in North China, this study reveals adistinct seesaw feature of abnormally high and low PM 2.5 concentrationsin the adjacent two months of December 2015 and January 2016, accompanied bydistinct meteorological modulations. The seesaw pattern is postulated to belinked to a super El Niño and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During themature phase of El Niño in December 2015, the weakened East Asian wintermonsoon (EAWM) and the associated low-level southerly wind anomaly reducedplanetary boundary layer (PBL) height, favoring strong haze formation. Thiscirculation pattern was completely reversed in the following month, in partdue to a sudden phase change of the AO from positive to negative and thebeginning of a decay of the El Niño, which enhanced the southward shiftof the upper tropospheric jet from December to January relative toclimatology, leading to an enhanced EAWM and substantially lower hazeformation. This sub-seasonal change in circulation is also robustly found in1982–1983 and 1997–1998, implicative of a general physical mechanismdynamically linked to El Niño and the AO. Numerical experiments using theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ) model were used to test the modulation of the meteorologicalconditions on haze formation. With the same emission, simulations for threesuper El Niño periods (1983, 1997 and 2015) robustly show higherPM 2.5 concentrations under the mature phase of the super El Niño,but substantially lower PM 2.5 concentrations during the decay phase ofEl Niño (and the sudden AO phase change), further verifying themodulation effect of the sub-seasonal circulation anomaly on PM 2.5 concentrations in North China

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Lidar Buoy Data Analysis: Basic Assessment of Observed Conditions and Instrument Performance Off Virginia and New Jersey

One of the challenges for developing offshore wind energy in the United States has been a lack of long-term observations to characterize the wind resource and design load conditions and to provide validation for the numerical weather prediction models. To address this challenge, the U.S. Department of Energy supported the procurement in 2014 and subsequent deployment of two buoys equipped with motion-compensated lidars and a comprehensive set of supporting meteorological and oceanographic (“metocean”) measurement systems. Each of the systems was deployed off the U.S. East Coast in excess of one year—one each near the coasts of Virginia and New Jersey. One notable observation from both buoys is the dramatic dependence of the wind shear on atmospheric stability as indicated by the air-sea temperature difference. This observation suggests that the commonly used neutral log law will not be a fully suitable representation of wind shear off the U.S. East Coast. This report provides a basic summary of observations at each location from key systems on each of the buoys as well as an assessment of instrument performance. These data are beginning to fill a long-standing observational gap for the wind energy community in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Sea Ice Kinematics and Thickness from RGPS: Observations and Theory

The RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS) has produced a wealth of data on Arctic sea ice motion, deformation, and thickness with broad geographical coverage and good temporal resolution. These data provide unprecedented spatial detail of the structure and evolution of the sea ice cover. The broad purpose of this study was to take advantage of the strengths of the RGPS data set to investigate sea ice kinematics and thickness, which affect the climate through their influence on ice production, ridging, and transport (i.e. mass balance); heat flux to the atmosphere; and structure of the upper ocean mixed layer. The objectives of this study were to: (1) Explain the relationship between the discontinuous motion of the ice cover and the large-scale, smooth wind field that drives the ice; (2) Characterize the sea ice deformation in the Arctic at different temporal and spatial scales, and compare it with deformation predicted by a state-of-theart ice/ocean model; and (3) Compare RGPS-derived sea ice thickness with other data, and investigate the thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover as seen in ULS data obtained by U.S. Navy submarines. We briefly review the results of our work below, separated into the topics of sea ice deformation and sea ice thickness. This is followed by a list of publications, meetings and presentations, and other activities supported under this grant. We are attaching to this report copies of all the listed publications. Finally, we would like to point out our community service to NASA through our involvement with the ASF User Working Group and the RGPS Science Working Group, as evidenced in the list of meetings and presentations below.

Stern, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗

DOE OSTI2013

ATMOSPHERIC IMAGING ASSEMBLY OBSERVATIONS OF CORONAL LOOPS: CROSS-FIELD TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTIONS

We construct revised response functions for the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) using the new atomic data, ionization equilibria, and coronal abundances available in CHIANTI 7.1. We then use these response functions in multithermal analysis of coronal loops, which allows us to determine a specific cross-field temperature distribution without ad hoc assumptions. Our method uses data from the six coronal filters and the Monte Carlo solutions available from our differential emission measure (DEM) analysis. The resulting temperature distributions are not consistent with isothermal plasma. Therefore, the observed loops cannot be modeled as single flux tubes and must be composed of a collection of magnetic strands. This result is now supported by observations from the High-resolution Coronal Imager, which show fine-scale braiding of coronal strands that are reconnecting and releasing energy. Multithermal analysis is one of the major scientific goals of AIA, and these results represent an important step toward the successful achievement of that goal. As AIA DEM analysis becomes more straightforward, the solar community will be able to take full advantage of the state-of-the-art spatial, temporal, and temperature resolution of the instrument.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗