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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Some climatological variables for TOGA-COARE domains - 1985-1990

Results are presented of the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere-Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) conducted in the western Pacific, with particular attention given to the atmospheric component of the experiment. The climatological variables explored are the mean sea level pressure, precipitable water, sea surface-air temperature difference, zonal wind component at 200 mb and 10 m, vertical motion at 500 mb, and precipitation rates. The paper provides some of the large-scale flow patterns in which other circulation features reside. Results are presented for three of the TOGA-COARE domains bounded by the following: (1) the Upper Air Network, 30 deg N-30 deg S, 90 deg E-70 deg W; (2) the Large-Scale Array, 10 deg N-10 deg S, 140 deg E-180 deg; and (3) the Equatorial Synoptic Array, 5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg E-180 deg.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Statistical Decomposition and Machine Learning to Clean In Situ Spaceflight Magnetic Field Measurements

Robust in situ magnetic field measurements are critical to understanding the various mechanisms that couple mass, momentum, and energy throughout our solar system. However, the spacecraft on which magnetometers are often deployed contaminate the magnetic field measurements via onboard subsystems including reaction wheels and magnetorquers. Two magnetometers can be deployed at different distances from the spacecraft to determine an approximation of the interfering field for subsequent removal, but constant data streams from both magnetometers can be impractical due to power and telemetry limitations. Here we propose a method to identify and remove time-varying magnetic interference from sources such as reaction wheels using statistical decomposition and convolutional neural networks, providing high-fidelity magnetic field data even in cases where dual-sensor measurements are not constantly available. For example, a measurement interval from the Parker Solar Probe outboard magnetometer experienced a 95.1% reduction in reaction wheel interference following application of the proposed technique.

magnetic field data↗

Scalable multiscale modeling of platelets with 100 million particles

Here, we developed the core components of the AI-aided multiple time stepping algorithm for multiscale modeling of cell dynamics. This algorithm was implemented and analyzed on two supercomputer architectures with an application of simulating the aggregation of 250 platelets, or 102 million particles. To scale on these computers with complex memory and network architectures with GPUs, we devised a biomechanics-informed task mapping scheme to optimize load imbalance, communications, and memory utilization. Our simulations, scaling well up to 192 nodes on a Summit-like supercomputer with a peak speed of 11 petaflops, achieved a rate of 423 μs/day which is 500 times faster than the conventional algorithm using static time step and this has enabled studies of record size blood clots at record spatial–temporal resolutions. Additionally, we discovered the sensitive dependence of the scalability and execution time on the methods of decomposition, CPU–GPU coupling, and task mapping.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Isolated Metal Sites in Cu–Zn–Y/Beta for Direct and Selective Butene-Rich C 3+ Olefin Formation from Ethanol

Direct and selective production of C 3+ olefins from bioethanol remains a critical challenge and important for the production of renewable transportation fuels such as aviation biofuels. In this study, we report a Cu–Zn–Y/Beta catalyst for selective ethanol conversion to butene-rich C 3+ olefins (88% selectivity at 100% ethanol conversion, 623 K), where the Cu, Zn, and Y sites are all highly dispersed. The ethanol-to-butene reaction network includes ethanol dehydrogenation, aldol condensation to crotonaldehyde, and hydrogenation to butyraldehyde, followed by further hydrogenation and dehydration reactions to form butenes. Cu sites play a critical role in promoting hydrogenation of the crotonaldehyde C═C bond to form butyraldehyde in the presence of hydrogen, making this a distinctive pathway from crotyl alcohol-based ethanol-to-butadiene reaction. Reaction rate measurements in the presence of ethanol and acetaldehyde (543 K, 12 kPa ethanol, 1.2 kPa acetaldehyde, 101.9 kPa H 2 ) over monometallic Zn/Beta and Y/Beta catalysts indicate that Y sites have higher C–C coupling rates than over Zn sites (initial C–C coupling rate, 6.1 × 10 –3 mol mol Y –1 s –1 vs 1.2 × 10 –3 mol mol Zn –1 s –1 ). Further, Lewis-acidic Y-site densities over Cu–Zn–Y/Beta with varied Y loadings are linearly correlated with the initial C–C coupling rates, suggesting that Lewis-acidic Y sites are the predominant sites that catalyze C–C coupling in Cu–Zn–Y/Beta catalysts. Control experiments show that the dealuminated Beta support is important to form higher density of Lewis-acidic Y sites in comparison with other supports such as silica, or deboronated MWW despite similar atomic dispersion of Y sites and Y–O coordination numbers over these supports, leading to more than 9 times higher C–C coupling rate per mole Y over dealuminated Beta relative to other supports. This study highlights the significance of unique combination of metal sites in contributing to the selective valorization of ethanol to C 3+ olefins, motivating for exploring multifunctional zeolite catalysts, where the presence of multiple sites with varying reactivities and functions allows for controlling the predominant molecular fluxes toward the desired products in complex reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Online LIBS–ML Framework for Dynamic Characterization of Heterogeneous Waste-Derived Gasification Feedstocks

LIBS−ML framework for real time feedstock characterization during continuous conveyor transport Heterogeneous waste derived feedstocks (e.g., waste coal, biomass and blends) introduce rapid variability in heating value and ash chemistry that affect gasifier operation, yet conventional laboratory characterization techniques are too slow to support proactive control. To address this gap, this study reports on an online, in situ, dynamic characterization framework that couple’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with leakage safe machine learning (ML) regression to deliver real time, decision quality predictions of gasifier relevant properties. A controlled sample matrix spanning two different waste coals, two different biomasses, and engineered blends under two particle size conditions were constructed and benchmarked using standardized laboratory analyses for proximate/ultimate properties and ash composition. LIBS spectra were acquired dynamically as material flowed on a conveyor belt, using high energy 1064 nm laser ablation and shot averaging to improve repeatability and precision. Supervised regression models (multi layer perceptron (MLP) /artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) and an optimized weighted ensemble were trained on emission line feature sets using nested cross validation with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and validated against an independent hold out set. The proposed LIBS−ML workflow achieves near laboratory predictive fidelity across parametric targets (including higher heating value (HHV), ash content, fixed carbon, sulfur, major ash forming oxides, and initial deformation temperature (IDT)), with the weighted ensemble providing a robust default predictor under dynamic measurement conditions. These results demonstrate a practical pathway for real time feedstock characterization that can enable feedforward adjustments and more resilient gasifier operation for variable quality waste derived fuels.

Biomass↗

A guide to diagnosing colored resonances at hadron colliders

We present a comprehensive study on how to distinguish the properties of heavy dijet resonances at hadron colliders. A variety of spins, chiral couplings, charges, and QCD color representations are considered. Distinguishing the different color representations is particularly difficult at hadron colliders. To determine the QCD color structure, we consider a third jet radiated in a resonant dijet event. We show that the relative rates of three-jet versus two-jet processes are sensitive to the color representation of the resonance. We also show analytically that the antennae radiation pattern of soft radiation depends on the color structure of dijet events and develops an observable that is sensitive to the antennae patterns. Finally, we exploit a Convolutional Neural Network with Machine Learning techniques to differentiate the radiation patterns from different colored resonances and find encouraging results to discriminate them. We demonstrate our results numerically at a 14 TeV LHC, and the methodology presented here should be applicable to other future hadron colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Scaling microstructural processes in the sintering of ionic ceramics

A multi-scale framework, combining a multiphase field formulation and large deformation mechanics, was developed as a stepping stone to perform the data analytics of the microstructural level kinetics of a sintering solid. Relevant microstructural information from this framework, such as grain, stress, and porosity statistics, was scaled up to describe the macroscopic level sintering kinetics. Here, the developed formulation was applied to describe the electric field assisted sintering of Y 2 O 3 . Microstructural inhomogeneities in a multi-granular solid result in the formation of a field of compressive stress networks, which interleave with low compression and weakly tensile regions, defining a scaffolding for sintering concentration regions to develop. A Poisson effect-induced lateral stress network is also naturally self-induced as a result of the mechanical constraints imposed by the sintering apparatus. For long sintering times, localized shear stresses enhancing mass flow along grain boundaries and internal surfaces develop. Three-sided pores are removed by either vacancy transport to the surrounding pores, or move towards the external surfaces through grain boundary diffusion. Four- and higher order-sided pores stabilize because an equal amount of vacancies are gained and lost through the connecting grain boundaries. Grain dewetting contributes to pore coalescence, suggesting that pore kinetics and grain growth are coupled and should be analyzed in concert. The combined sintering and grain growth kinetics define six regimes of sintering behavior: (1) T, the transient regime; (2) E$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, early sintering regime, where the grain growth exponent, p = 1, and the stress concentration factor, $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (3) E S , the stress dominated, early sintering regime, where p = 1 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; (4) I$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (5) I S , the stress dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; and (6) L, the late sintering regime, where p = 3 and $f$ ~ 1. At the macroscopic level, the rapid densification and suppression of grain growth observed in the electric field assisted sintering process is a consequence of the compounding effects of the underlying stress-, transport-, and interfacial-energy-induced energy minimization kinetics, as predicted by the multi-scale framework.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Reaction chemistry of ethanol oligomerization to distillate-range molecules using low loading Cu/Mg x AlO y catalysts

We study ethanol oligomerization to higher alcohols and other oxygenates with a 0.3 wt. %Cu/Mg 2.9 AlO catalyst. This reaction involves more than 130 products in a complicated reaction network. The selectivity towards diesel fuel precursor compounds (hereafter ‘DFPC’) increased with conversion until reaching a plateau at an ethanol conversion of ~70 %. Alcohol selectivity was found to follow Schultz-Flory distribution at all studied conversions. Larger sized alcohols then are formed mostly by chain-growth mechanisms via surface reactions of adsorbed oligomers with ethanol-based monomers. Higher esters are formed from alcohols and aldehydes in a series reaction mechanism. Moreover, C 6+ ester and C 4+ ketones selectivities increase as conversion increases. We also found that C 4+ alcohols most likely undergo Guerbet coupling with the studied catalyst to form even higher alcohols once, and that the oxygen of these alcohols is active as a nucleophile, resulting in the selective formation of esters if the starting alcohol is branched. Finally, we performed several cofeed studies varying ethanol-to-H 2 inlet partial pressures, and adding acetaldehyde and ethyl acetate as cofeeds to ethanol at different concentrations. Here, we conclude from these experiments that acetaldehyde concentration controls reaction chemistry, with conditions favoring larger concentrations of the molecule promoting both alcohol coupling and ester formation, and conditions leading to lower concentrations of acetaldehyde resulting in higher alcohol selectivity at the expense of esters and higher aldehydes.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Bioorthogonal Click Chemistry for Antibody-Free Profiling of Acetylation, Propionylation, and Butyrylation in Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Lysine acylation is a posttranslational modification (PTM) conserved in all domains of life and is essential for regulating diverse biological processes. Traditional methods for investigating acylation rely on anti-acyl-lysine antibodies, which are costly and time-consuming and often exhibit variable affinity. To remedy these pitfalls, we developed an antibody-free method for bacterial acylome enrichment using bioorthogonal click chemistry coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. We applied this approach to the pathogens Pseudomonas aeruginosa and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) to explore the biological significance of acylation in each organism. We characterized the acetylome, propionylome, and butyrylome in P. aeruginosa UCBPP-PA14 and the acetylome and propionylome in MRSA. Comparative analyses revealed unique PTM dynamics showing that acylation regulated a wide range of cellular functions, including metabolism, antibiotic resistance, virulence, and stress response. This work establishes the first antibody-free enrichment method for defining bacterial acylomes and provides new insight into global lysine acylation networks in pathogenic bacteria.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lightning-Generated NO(x) Seen By OMI during NASA's TC-4 Experiment: First Results

We present here case studies identifying upper-tropospheric NO2 produced in convective storms during NASA's Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC~i)n July and August 2007. DC8 aircraft missions, flown from the mission base in Costa Rica, recorded in situ NO2 profiles near active storms and in relatively quiet areas. We combine these data with measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite to estimate the amount of NO2 produced by lightning (LN02) above background levels in the regions influenced by storms. In our analysis, improved off-line processing techniques are employed to minimize known artifacts in the OM1 data. Information on lightning flashes (primarily CG) observed by the surface network operated by the Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad are examined upwind of regions where OM1 indicates enhanced LNO2. Comparisons of the observed flash data with measurements by the TRMM/LIS satellite instrument are used to obtain the lightning detection efficiency for total flashes. Finally, using the NO/NO2 ratio estimated from DC-8 observations, we estimate the average NO(x) production per lightning flash for each case in this study. The magnitudes of the measured NO(x) enhancements are compared with those observed by the DC-8 and with similar OM1 measurements analyzed in mid-latitude experiments.

Bucsela, Eric↗

Bias-Variance Trade-Off in Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Randomized Smoothing for High-Dimensional PDEs

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have triggered a paradigm shift in scientific computing, leveraging mesh-free properties and robust approximation capabilities. While proving effective for low-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs), the computational cost of PINNs remains a hurdle in high-dimensional scenarios. This is particularly pronounced when computing high-order and high-dimensional derivatives in the physics-informed loss. Randomized Smoothing PINN (RS-PINN) introduces Gaussian noise for stochastic smoothing of the original neural net model, enabling the use of Monte Carlo methods for derivative approximation, which eliminates the need for costly automatic differentiation. Despite its computational efficiency, especially in the approximation of high-dimensional derivatives, RS-PINN introduces biases in both loss and gradients, negatively impacting convergence, especially when coupled with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We present a comprehensive analysis of biases in RS-PINN, attributing them to the nonlinearity of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss as well as the intrinsic nonlinearity of the PDE itself. We propose tailored bias correction techniques, delineating their application based on the order of PDE nonlinearity. The derivation of an unbiased RS-PINN allows for a detailed examination of its advantages and disadvantages compared to the biased version. Specifically, the biased version has a lower variance and runs faster than the unbiased version, but it is less accurate due to the bias. To optimize the bias-variance trade-off, we combine the two approaches in a hybrid method that balances the rapid convergence of the biased version with the high accuracy of the unbiased version. In addition to methodological contributions, we present an enhanced implementation of RS-PINN. Extensive experiments on diverse high-dimensional PDEs, including Fokker-Planck, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB), viscous Burgers’, Allen-Cahn, and Sine-Gordon equations, illustrate the bias-variance trade-off and highlight the effectiveness of the hybrid RS-PINN. Empirical guidelines are provided for selecting biased, unbiased, or hybrid versions, depending on the dimensionality and nonlinearity of the specific PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coupled Gravity and Elevation Measurement of Ice Sheet Mass Change

During June 2003, we measured surface gravity at six locations about a glaciological measurement site located on the South-central Greenland Ice. We operated a GPS unit for 90 minutes at each site -the unit was operated simultaneously with a base station unit in Sondrestrom Fjord so as to enable differential, post-processing of the data. We installed an aluminum, accumulation-rate-pole at each site. The base section of the pole also served as the mount for the GPS antenna. Two gravimeters were used simultaneously at each site. Measurements were repeated at each site with at time lapse of at least 50 minutes. We measured snow physical properties in two shallow pits The same measurement sites were occupied in 1981 and all were part of a hexagonal network of geodetic and glaciological measurements established by The Ohio State University in 1980. Additional gravity observations were acquired at three of the sites in 1993 and 1995. Gravity data were collected in conjunction with Doppler satellite measurements of position and elevation in 1981 and global positioning system measurements subsequently. The use of satellite navigation techniques permitted reoccupation of the same sites in each year to within a few 10 s of meters or better. After detrending the gravity data, making adjustments for tides and removing the residual effects of local spatial gradients in gravity, we observe an average secular decrease in gravity of about 0.01 milligal/year, but with tenths of milligal variations about the mean trend. The trend is consistent with a nearly linear increase in surface elevation of between 7 to 10 c d y r (depending on location) as measured by repeated airborne laser altimeter, surface Doppler satellite and GPS elevation measurements. Differences between the residual gravity anomalies after free air correction may be attributable to local mass changes. This project is a collaboration between the Byrd Polar Research Center of the Ohio State University and the Arctic Technology Center of the Danish Technical University.

Jezek, K. C.↗

A Probabilistic Reasoner Based on Bayes Risk for Damage Detection in Structural Systems

Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are used to inform operation of structural systems subject to loads and environments that may affect their integrity. SHM systems rely on continuous monitoring of the structure to determine its health state. These systems are often coupled with a model of the deployed structure to determine the consequences of changes in the system by forecasting the response to future states. These models, which may be thought of as digital twins, need to be updated to reflect the latest state of the structural system. This work makes use of an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input space to determine deviations from the training data input space distributions. This workflow enables domain shift detection to determine whether damage is present in the structure. The uncertainty metrics generated by this network are then used in a Bayes risk framework to design an optimal damage detector given cost and risk considerations. The approach is demonstrated on a computational example with simulated damage.

Najera-Flores, David [ATA Engineering, Inc.]↗

Functional Photoresists for Energy Applications. Final Report

Monolithic ultralow-density porous bulk materials have recently attracted much interest due to many emerging applications in the areas of catalysis, energy storage and conversion, and thermal insulation. They are also important components of high energy density (HED) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) targets. However, despite tremendous progress that has been made in the synthesis of porous materials, deterministic and independent control over microscopic architecture, density and composition remain key issues, and their integration in high precision devices requires cost and time-intensive mechanical machining that not only reduces reproducibility by generating debris but also limits the complexity of the 3D shapes that can be realized. In this project, we overcame these limitations by developing a universal templating capability that provides deterministic and independent control over density, composition, architecture, and macroscopic sample shape. This was achieved by developing the technology to 1) 3D print ultrahigh resolution, ultra-high precision polymeric micro-lattice templates, 2) coat these templates with the desired materials, and 3) removing the template (Fig. 1a). Atomic layer deposition (ALD) provides the atomic scale coating thickness accuracy required for precisely controlling density. While this templating approach had been demonstrated in prior work, limitations in suitable photoresists, 3D print technologies, print design, and template removal techniques did not allow the fabrication of millimeter-sized high-precision parts with sub-micron resolution. To enable this technology, we developed 1) two-photon polymerization (TPP) print designs that enable the fabrication of millimeter-sized, mechanically robust polymeric templates with sub-micron resolution and 2) a continuum level TPP printing simulation capability for additional print design guidance; 3) atomistic models to study photoresist polymerization kinetics and network topography, 4) refractive index matched polymeric and preceramic TPP photoresists, and 5) functional TPP photoresists including porous voxel structures and self-immolative polymer photoresist chemistries; and 6) damage free template removal techniques that enable the fabrication of defect-free high-precision low-density foam components. We also developed a templating approach for pure carbon microlattices with a unique tube-in-tube ligament morphology. As a test platform, we pursued the fabrication of foam liners that promise to further increase the neutron yield in indirect drive ICF experiments by improving implosion symmetry control and coupling between the laser and the deuterium-tritium fuel. This application requires fabrication and integration of a ultra-high precision, millimeter-sized, thin-walled (200-400 micrometer thick), low-density (10-30 mg/cc), high atomic number (high Z) cylindrical foam tube into the gold hohlraum of an indirect drive ICF target (Fig. 1b). While our hohlraum liner test case will mainly find application in HED and ICF experiments, the underlying science will also directly apply to previously developed nanoparticle and additive manufacturing technologies and will advance those techniques as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Use of Soft Computing Technologies For Rocket Engine Control

The problem to be addressed in this paper is to explore how the use of Soft Computing Technologies (SCT) could be employed to further improve overall engine system reliability and performance. Specifically, this will be presented by enhancing rocket engine control and engine health management (EHM) using SCT coupled with conventional control technologies, and sound software engineering practices used in Marshall s Flight Software Group. The principle goals are to improve software management, software development time and maintenance, processor execution, fault tolerance and mitigation, and nonlinear control in power level transitions. The intent is not to discuss any shortcomings of existing engine control and EHM methodologies, but to provide alternative design choices for control, EHM, implementation, performance, and sustaining engineering. The approaches outlined in this paper will require knowledge in the fields of rocket engine propulsion, software engineering for embedded systems, and soft computing technologies (i.e., neural networks, fuzzy logic, and Bayesian belief networks), much of which is presented in this paper. The first targeted demonstration rocket engine platform is the MC-1 (formerly FASTRAC Engine) which is simulated with hardware and software in the Marshall Avionics & Software Testbed laboratory that

Trevino, Luis C.↗

Long-term Evolution of Upper Stratospheric Ozone at Selected Stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)

The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). Climatological mean differences between these instruments are typically smaller than 5% between 25 and 50 km. Ozone anomaly time series from all instruments, averaged from 35 to 45 km altitude, track each other very well and typically agree within 3 to 5%. SBUV seems to have a slight positive drift against the other instruments. The corresponding 1979 to 1999 period from a transient simulation by the fully coupled MAECHAM4-CHEM chemistry climate model reproduces many features of the observed anomalies. However, in the upper stratosphere the model shows too low ozone values and too negative ozone trends, probably due to an underestimation of methane and a consequent overestimation of ClO. The combination of all observational data sets provides a very consistent picture, with a long-term stability of 2% or better. Upper stratospheric ozone shows three main features: (1) a decline by 10 to 15% since 1980, due to chemical destruction by chlorine; (2) two to three year fluctuations by 5 to 10%, due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); (3) an 11-year oscillation by about 5%, due to the 11-year solar cycle. The 1979 to 1997 ozone trends are larger at the southern mid-latitude station Lauder (45 S), reaching 8%/decade, compared to only about 6%/decade at Table Mountain (35 N), Haute Provence/Bordeaux (approximately equal to 45 N), and Hohenpeissenberg/Bern(approximately equal to 47 N). At Lauder, Hawaii (20 N), Table Mountain, and Haute Provence, ozone residuals after subtraction of QBO- and solar cycle effects have levelled off in recent years, or are even increasing. Assuming a turning point in January 1997, the change of trend is largest at southern mid-latitude Lauder, +11%/decade, compared to +7%/decade at northern mid-latitudes. This points to a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. However, chlorine levels are still very high and ozone will remain vulnerable. At this point the most northerly mid-latitude station, Hohenpeissenberg/Bern differs from the other stations, and shows much less clear evidence for a beginning recovery, with a change of trend in 1997 by only +3%/decade. In fact, record low upper stratospheric ozone values were observed at Hohenpeissenberg/Bern, and to a lesser degree at Table Mountain and Haute Provence, in the winters 2003/2004 and 2004/2005.

Steinbrecht, W.↗

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗