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NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗
NASA NTRS1993

Science planning and sequencing for Cassini

This paper will address the science planning and sequencing aspects of the command generation process for the scientifically diverse Cassini Mission. The mission's prime objectives are to study the Saturnian system and deliver the Huygens Probe to the moon Titan. Together, the spacecraft and probe will be the largest and most complicated craft ever launched to another planet. The presentation will begin with an overview of the Cassini spacecraft and its scientific instrumentation. This will be followed with a description of the Oct. 1997 mission. Next, the structure of the science planning and sequencing process, with special emphasis on science's role, will be outlined. Finally, this presentation will conclude with a discussion of some of the unique challenges faced by the Ground System during Cassini's four-year orbital tour.

Wessen, Randii R.↗
DOE OSTI2017

ARM Radiosondes for National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project Validation Field Campaign Report

This IOP has been a coordinated effort involving the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation (ARM) Climate Research Facility, the University of Wisconsin (UW)-Madison, and the JPSS project to validate SNPP NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture sounding products from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). In this arrangement, funding for radiosondes was provided by the JPSS project to ARM. These radiosondes were launched coincident with the SNPP satellite overpasses (OP) at four of the ARM field sites beginning in July 2012 and running through September 2017. Combined with other ARM data, an assessment of the radiosonde data quality was performed and post-processing corrections applied producing an ARM site Best Estimate (BE) product. The SNPP targeted radiosondes were integrated into the NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS+) system, which collocated the radiosondes with satellite products (NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites [EUMETSAT], Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite [GOES], Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate [COSMIC]) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP forecasts for use in product assessment and algorithm development. This work was a fundamental, integral, and cost-effective part of the SNPP validation effort and provided critical accuracy assessments of the SNPP temperature and water vapor soundings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Ram accelerator direct launch system for space cargo

The ram accelerator, a chemically-propelled mass driver, is presented as a new approach for directly launching acceleration-insensitive pay-loads into LEO. The cargo vehicle resembles the centerbody of a conventional ramjet and travels through a launch tube filled with a premixed gaseous fuel and oxidizer mixture. The tube acts as the outer cowling of the ramjet and the combustion process travels with the vehicle. Two modes of ram accelerator drive are described, which when used in sequence, are capable of accelerating the cargo vehicle to 10 km/sec. The requirements for placing a 2000 kg vehicle with 50 percent payload fraction into a 400 km orbit, with a minimum of on-board rocket propellant for circularization maneuvers, are examined. It is shown that aerodynamic heating during atmospheric transit results in very little ablation of the nose. Both direct and indirect orbital insertion scenarios are investigated, and a three-step maneuver consisting of two burns and aerobraking is found to minimize the on-board propellant mass. A scenario involving a parking orbit below the desired final orbit is suggested as a means to increase the flexibility of the mass launch concept.

Bruckner, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulation Based Acquisition for NASA's Office of Exploration Systems

In January 2004, President George W. Bush unveiled his vision for NASA to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program. This vision includes the goal to extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon no later than 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations. In response to this vision, NASA has created the Office of Exploration Systems (OExS) to develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures to explore and support decisions about human exploration destinations, including the development of a new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). Within the OExS organization, NASA is implementing Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), a robust Modeling & Simulation (M&S) environment integrated across all acquisition phases and programs/teams, to make the realization of the President s vision more certain. Executed properly, SBA will foster better informed, timelier, and more defensible decisions throughout the acquisition life cycle. By doing so, SBA will improve the quality of NASA systems and speed their development, at less cost and risk than would otherwise be the case. SBA is a comprehensive, Enterprise-wide endeavor that necessitates an evolved culture, a revised spiral acquisition process, and an infrastructure of advanced Information Technology (IT) capabilities. SBA encompasses all project phases (from requirements analysis and concept formulation through design, manufacture, training, and operations), professional disciplines, and activities that can benefit from employing SBA capabilities. SBA capabilities include: developing and assessing system concepts and designs; planning manufacturing, assembly, transport, and launch; training crews, maintainers, launch personnel, and controllers; planning and monitoring missions; responding to emergencies by evaluating effects and exploring solutions; and communicating across the OExS enterprise, within the Government, and with the general public. The SBA process features empowered collaborative teams (including industry partners) to integrate requirements, acquisition, training, operations, and sustainment. The SBA process also utilizes an increased reliance on and investment in M&S to reduce design risk. SBA originated as a joint Industry and Department of Defense (DoD) initiative to define and integrate an acquisition process that employs robust, collaborative use of M&S technology across acquisition phases and programs. The SBA process was successfully implemented in the Air Force s Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program.

Hale, Joe↗
NASA NTRS1992

Project APEX: Advanced Phobos Exploration. Manned mission to the Martian moon Phobos

The manned exploration of Mars is a massive undertaking which requires careful consideration. A mission to the moon of Mars called Phobos as a prelude to manned landings on the Martian surface offers some advantages. One is that the energy requirements, in terms of delta 5, is only slightly higher than going to the Moon's surface. Another is that Phobos is a potential source of water and carbon which could be extracted and processed for life support and cryogenic propellants for use in future missions; thus, Phobos might serve as a base for extended Mars exploration or for exploration of the outer planets. The design of a vehicle for such a mission is the subject of our Aerospace System Design course this year. The materials and equipment needed for the processing plant would be delivered to Phobos in a prior unmanned mission. This study focuses on what it would take to send a crew to Phobos, set up the processing plant for extraction and storage of water and hydrocarbons, conduct scientific experiments, and return safely to Earth. The size, configuration, and subsystems of the vehicle are described in some detail. The spacecraft carries a crew of five and is launched from low Earth orbit in the year 2010. The outbound trajectory to Mars uses a gravitational assisted swing by of Venus and takes eight months to complete. The stay at Phobos is 60 days at which time the crew will be engaged in setting up the processing facility. The crew will then return to Earth orbit after a total mission duration of 656 days. Both stellar and solar observations will be conducted on both legs of the mission. The design of the spacecraft addresses human factors and life science; mission analysis and control; propulsion; power generation and distribution; thermal control; structural analysis; and planetary, solar, and stellar science. A 0.5 g artificial gravity is generated during transit by spinning about the lateral body axis. Nuclear thermal rockets using hydrogen as fuel are selected to reduce total launch mass and to shorten the duration of the mission. The nuclear systems also provide the primary electrical power via dual mode operation. The overall spacecraft length is 110 meters and the total mass departing from low Earth orbit is 900 metric tons.

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NASA NTRS2015

Printing Outside the Box: Additive Manufacturing Processes for Fabrication of Large Aerospace Structures

To achieve NASA's mission of space exploration, innovative manufacturing processes are being applied to the fabrication of propulsion elements. Liquid rocket engines (LREs) are comprised of a thrust chamber and nozzle extension as illustrated in figure 1 for the J2X upper stage engine. Development of the J2X engine, designed for the Ares I launch vehicle, is currently being incorporated on the Space Launch System. A nozzle extension is attached to the combustion chamber to obtain the expansion ratio needed to increase specific impulse. If the nozzle extension could be printed as one piece using free-form additive manufacturing (AM) processes, rather than the current method of forming welded parts, a considerable time savings could be realized. Not only would this provide a more homogenous microstructure than a welded structure, but could also greatly shorten the overall fabrication time. The main objective of this study is to fabricate test specimens using a pulsed arc source and solid wire as shown in figure 2. The mechanical properties of these specimens will be compared with those fabricated using the powder bed, selective laser melting technology at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. As printed components become larger, maintaining a constant temperature during the build process becomes critical. This predictive capability will require modeling of the moving heat source as illustrated in figure 3. Predictive understanding of the heat profile will allow a constant temperature to be maintained as a function of height from substrate while printing complex shapes. In addition, to avoid slumping, this will also allow better control of the microstructural development and hence the properties. Figure 4 shows a preliminary comparison of the mechanical properties obtained.

Babai, Majid↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) mission

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is a NASA program aimed at improving our knowledge of the physical and chemical processes controlling the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere, emphasizing those levels that are known to be particularly susceptible to change by human activities. The spacecraft was launched by the Space Shuttle Discovery on September 12, 1991 into a near-circular orbit at 585 km altitude and 57 deg inclination. Measurements include vertical profiles of temperature, many trace gases, and horizontal wind velocities, as well as solar energy inputs. Many of the limb-scanning instruments can measure to as high as 80 deg latitude, providing near-global coverage. The mission is supported by a large international correlative measurement program, yielding data both for validation of the UARS measurements and for complementary scientific studies. A dedicated data system provides rapid processing to geophysical quantities and makes these data available to UARS scientists.

Reber, Carl A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Impact of Microtechnology on Space System Development

Microtechnology has the potential for a beneficial impact on both launch and space flight operations because of savings in mass, power consumption, volume and low cost manufacturing and testing. Less apparent, but equally valuable, are the advantages in reliability to be gained by increased redundancy and the reduction of complexity in the fabrication process. However, a successful program for the development and insertion of these technologies will need to consider the conservatism of the aerospace community. This is more true of government space programs where success is measured by a lack of launch failures and less true of commercial ventures where success may be measured by other criteria. This paper presents a strategy for evolving microtechnology in space systems that fits both the government's risk avoidance culture, and parallels the expected development of microtechnology applications in space systems.

Sutton, David G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Tethered Satellite System: Scientific and Technological Results

The bi-national, US-Italian, Tethered Satellite System (TSS) program was designed to provide a unique opportunity to explore certain space plasma- electrodynamic processes and the orbital mechanics of a gravity-gradient stabilized system of two satellites linked by a long conducting tether. The second flight, TSS-LR, was launched February 22, 1996 on STS-75 and satellite deployment began at MET 3/00:27. A unique data set was obtained over the next five hours as the tether was deployed to a length of 19695 meters, which has allowed significant science to be accomplished. This presentation will focus on results from the TSS-LR mission that are most important to the future technological applications of electrodynamic tethers in space - in particular, the current collection process. Of particular significance is an apparent transition of the physics of current collection when the potential of the collecting body becomes greater than the ram energy of the ionospheric atomic oxygen ions. Previous theoretical models of current collection were electro- static - assuming that the orbital motion of the system, which is highly sub-sonic with respect to electron thermal motion, was unimportant. This may still be acceptable for the case of relatively slow-moving sounding rockets. However, the TSS-LR results show that motion relative to the plasma must be accounted for in orbiting systems.

Stone, Nobie H.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Use of the Collaborative Optimization Architecture for Launch Vehicle Design

Collaborative optimization is a new design architecture specifically created for large-scale distributed-analysis applications. In this approach, problem is decomposed into a user-defined number of subspace optimization problems that are driven towards interdisciplinary compatibility and the appropriate solution by a system-level coordination process. This decentralized design strategy allows domain-specific issues to be accommodated by disciplinary analysts, while requiring interdisciplinary decisions to be reached by consensus. The present investigation focuses on application of the collaborative optimization architecture to the multidisciplinary design of a single-stage-to-orbit launch vehicle. Vehicle design, trajectory, and cost issues are directly modeled. Posed to suit the collaborative architecture, the design problem is characterized by 5 design variables and 16 constraints. Numerous collaborative solutions are obtained. Comparison of these solutions demonstrates the influence which an priori ascent-abort criterion has on development cost. Similarly, objective-function selection is discussed, demonstrating the difference between minimum weight and minimum cost concepts. The operational advantages of the collaborative optimization

Braun, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Mineralogy of the Moon with M3

From the initial era or lunar exploration, we have learned that many processes active on the early Moon are common to most terrestrial planets, including the record of early and late impact bombardment. Since most major geologic activity ceased on the Moon approx. 3 Gy ago, the Moon's surface provides a record of the earliest era of terrestrial planet evolution. The type and composition of minerals that comprise a planetary surface are a direct result of the initial composition and subsequent thermal and physical processing. Lunar mineralogy seen today is thus a direct record of the early evolution of the lunar crust and subsequent geologic processes. Specifically, the distribution and concentration of specific minerals is closely tied to magma ocean products, lenses of intruded or remelted plutons, basaltic volcanism and fire-fountaining, and any process (e.g. cratering) that might redistribute or transform primary and secondary lunar crustal materials. The Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3, or "m-cube") is a state-of-the-art imaging spectrometer that will fly on Chandrayaan-1, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) mission to be launched late 2007 to early 2008. M3 is one of several foreign instruments chosen by ISRO to be flown on Chandrayaan-1 to complement the strong ISRO payload package. M3 was selected through a peer-review process as part of NASA s Discovery Program. It is under the oversight of PI Carle Pieters at Brown University and is being built by an experienced team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Data analysis and calibration are carried out by a highly qualified and knowledgeable Science Team. To characterize diagnostic properties of lunar minerals, M3 acquires high spectral resolution reflectance data from 700 to 3000 nm (optional to 430 nm). M3 operates as a pushbroom spectrometer with a slit oriented orthogonal to the S/C orbital motion. Measurements are obtained simultaneously for 640 cross track spatial elements and 261 spectral elements. This translates to 70 m/pixel spatial resolution from a nominal 100 km polar orbit for Chandrayaan-1 . The primary science goal of M3 is to characterize and map lunar surface mineralogy in the context of its geologic evolution as outlined above. This translates into several sub-topics that focus on exploring the mineral character of the highland crust, characterizing the diversity basaltic volcanism, and identifying potential volatile concentrations near the poles. The primary exploration goal is to assess and map lunar mineral resources at high spatial resolution to support planning for future, targeted missions.

Pieters, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Overview of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite: Observations from 1991 to 2002

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) was launched in September 1991 by the Space Shuttle Discovery and continues to make relevant atmospheric measurements (as of October 2002). This successful satellite has fostered a better understanding of the middle atmospheric processes, especially those important in the control of ozone. Seven of the original ten instruments aboard the UARS are still functional and six instruments regularly make measurements. The UARS is in a stable observing configuration, in spite of experiencing several anomalies over its lifetime. It is expected that the UARS will overlap the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite (scheduled launch in January 2004) for several months before the end of the UARS mission.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X Range Safety Analyses Overview

Ares I-X was the first test flight of NASA's Constellation Program's Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle designed to provide manned access to low Earth orbit. As a one-time test flight, the Air Force's 45th Space Wing required a series of Range Safety analysis data products to be developed for the specified launch date and mission trajectory prior to granting flight approval on the Eastern Range. The range safety data package is required to ensure that the public, launch area, and launch complex personnel and resources are provided with an acceptable level of safety and that all aspects of prelaunch and launch operations adhere to applicable public laws. The analysis data products, defined in the Air Force Space Command Manual 91-710, Volume 2, consisted of a nominal trajectory, three sigma trajectory envelopes, stage impact footprints, acoustic intensity contours, trajectory turn angles resulting from potential vehicle malfunctions (including flight software failures), characterization of potential debris, and debris impact footprints. These data products were developed under the auspices of the Constellation's Program Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel and its Range Safety Trajectory Working Group with the intent of beginning the framework for the operational vehicle data products and providing programmatic review and oversight. A multi-center NASA team in conjunction with the 45th Space Wing, collaborated within the Trajectory Working Group forum to define the data product development processes, performed the analyses necessary to generate the data products, and performed independent verification and validation of the data products. This paper outlines the Range Safety data requirements and provides an overview of the processes established to develop both the data products and the individual analyses used to develop the data products, and it summarizes the results of the analyses required for the Ares I-X launch.

Starr, Brett R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X Range Safety Flight Envelope Analysis

Ares I-X was the first test flight of NASA's Constellation Program's Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle designed to provide manned access to low Earth orbit. As a one-time test flight, the Air Force's 45th Space Wing required a series of Range Safety analysis data products to be developed for the specified launch date and mission trajectory prior to granting flight approval on the Eastern Range. The range safety data package is required to ensure that the public, launch area, and launch complex personnel and resources are provided with an acceptable level of safety and that all aspects of prelaunch and launch operations adhere to applicable public laws. The analysis data products, defined in the Air Force Space Command Manual 91-710, Volume 2, consisted of a nominal trajectory, three sigma trajectory envelopes, stage impact footprints, acoustic intensity contours, trajectory turn angles resulting from potential vehicle malfunctions (including flight software failures), characterization of potential debris, and debris impact footprints. These data products were developed under the auspices of the Constellation's Program Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel and its Range Safety Trajectory Working Group with the intent of beginning the framework for the operational vehicle data products and providing programmatic review and oversight. A multi-center NASA team in conjunction with the 45th Space Wing, collaborated within the Trajectory Working Group forum to define the data product development processes, performed the analyses necessary to generate the data products, and performed independent verification and validation of the data products. This paper outlines the Range Safety data requirements and provides an overview of the processes established to develop both the data products and the individual analyses used to develop the data products, and it summarizes the results of the analyses required for the Ares I-X launch.

Starr, Brett R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Computational Fluid Dynamics Methods Used in the Development of the Space Launch System Liftoff and Transition Lineloads Databases

The objective of this paper is to document the reasoning and trade studies that supported the selection of appropriate tools for constructing aerodynamic lineload databases for the Liftoff and Transition phases of flight for launch vehicles. These decisions were made amid the maturation of an evolving workflow for generating databases on variants of the Space Launch System launch vehicle, with most being based on results from brief developmental studies performed in response to specific, unforeseen challenges that were encountered in analyzing a given configuration. This report is intended to provide a summary of the results and the decision-making processes chronologically over the design cycles of various configurations, starting with isolated free-air bodies for the Block 1 Crew, then the Block 1B Crew and Cargo configurations, and most recently the Block 1B Crew configuration in proximity to the launch tower. The results from these analyses led to the selection of the CREATE-AV Kestrel flowsolver for simulating these problems. The need to accurately capture the expected leeward-wake flow field characteristics required the use of Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (DDES) method, for which the vorticity magnitude was employed as the solution Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) function over the off-body Cartesian grid region. In addition, the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) model is used to account for the flow turbulence effects.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure Response Optimization of an Eddy Current-Driven Flyer Plate Valve for the ITER Shattered Pellet Injection System

One technique for mitigating disruptions in a tokamak is shattered pellet injection (SPI). SPI is a process in which a large solid pellet consisting of deuterium, neon, or argon is desublimated in a pipe gun barsrel and launched downstream. Pellets are shattered just before entering the plasma by an impact with an angled tube. Injection of these materials into the plasma radiates stored thermal energy, limits current decay rates, suppresses the generation of runaway electrons, and dissipates runaway electrons if necessary. A critical element of the SPI system is a fast-acting valve that releases high-pressure gas to dislodge and accelerate pellets directly, or indirectly via a mechanical punch. A prototype valve sized for the ITER SPI system has been designed and fabricated. A pulsed high-voltage power supply energizes the valve’s internal magnetic coil, which induces eddy currents in the adjacent flyer plate resulting in a repulsive force between the flyer plate and the coil. The flyer plate action lifts a valve seat, allowing high-pressure gas to flow from the valve plenum to the downstream (breech) location of the pellet or mechanical punch. All of the valve’s internal components are designed to operate in ITER-level static background magnetic fields. Here, a study was conducted to optimize the downstream pressure response for a range of valve sizes and operating pressures. In particular, the study analyzes the breech pressure response associated with varying plenum pressures as well as varying breech volumes. A computational fluid dynamics simulation was built in STAR-CCM+ and validated against data from laboratory experiments. The resulting simulation outputs, in the form of downstream responses for a variety of initial plenum pressures and breech volumes, will be used as a complement to experimental data to ensure the pressure pulse is suitable for pellet survivability. These data, combined with studies on pellet shear strength and shock response, will be applied to optimization of overall operating parameters of the ITER SPI system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗