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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗
NASA NTRS1985

Evaluation of fault-tolerant system performance by approximate techniques

An approximate method for calculating the statistics of the performance of a fault-tolerant system is developed. An approximate method is necessary because the statistical model of the system behavior is large-scale and the time horizon of interest encompasses many cycles of the Redundancy Management logic. In the development, a compact representation of the necessary information called the v-transform is introduced and discussed. Based upon this representation, an approximation that leads to a very efficient computational procedure is suggested and numerically analyzed. A very brief discussion of other related work is also presented.

Walker, B. K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Detection of road boundary

Several researchers have proposed and implemented various systems pertaining to the development of autonomous land vehicles (ALVs). One fundamental problem associated with the navigation of an ALV is the ability to efficiently extract the boundaries of the pathway that need to be navigated. In this paper a method is presented that will determine the road boundaries in one pass using a limited search area in the input image. The method employs the statistical information regarding the gray levels present in the images along with geometrical constraints concerning the road. Some examples are given to demonstrate the efficacy of the method.

Sowers, James P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Correction Methods for NASA GeneLab Transcriptomic Datasets

Conducting space biology experiments aboard the International Space Station, particularly those utilizing complex model organisms like mice, is expensive and difficult due to limited crew availability, hardware, and space. As a result, sample numbers from these studies are low, reducing the statistical power of any one experiment. Aggregating spaceflight datasets serves as a method to increase sample numbers, allowing for novel insights through bioinformatic analysis of ‘omics data from merged datasets. However, aggregating datasets can introduce unwanted variation including 1) differences in sample handling, processing, and sequencing platforms between datasets (technical variation) as well as 2) differences in experimental design between datasets. In the present study, NASA GeneLab-hosted RNAseq datasets from mouse liver tissues were used to evaluate several statistical methods to correct for this unwanted variation through two approaches, reference-based and standard. The following correction algorithms were applied with (reference-based) and/or without (standard) considering Universal Mouse RNA Reference samples: ComBat and ComBat_seq from the SVA package, median polish, empirical Bayes, and ANOVA-based algorithms from the MBatch package, and negative binomial regression normalization in the DESeq2 package. For each approach, after the correction algorithm was applied, differential gene expression (DGE) analysis of flight and ground control samples was performed with the combined data. The robustness of each tool was evaluated using BatchQC to determine statistical differences between datasets before and after correction, Principal Component Analysis to evaluate global gene expression in samples before and after correction, and by comparing DGE analysis of individual datasets and combined datasets before and after correction. The results showed that the reference-based approach introduced several additional (and likely artificial) DEGs when compared with the respective standard approach. Of the methods tested, standard ComBat and DESeq2 were identified as the most robust correction methods for combining spaceflight mouse liver RNAseq datasets hosted on GeneLab.

GeneLab↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expedited Model Building Method for Rocket Nozzle Side Loading

Statistical analysis of test data is currently the preferred method of creating models for uncharacterized side loading in rocket nozzles. However, statistical analysis requires multiple data sets to be reliable; getting these sets requires building and testing multiple rocket motors, which is not feasible given the incredible time and cost required to do so. By using a combination of geometry, simplified finite element analysis (FEA) analogs, and algebra we can create a limited predictive model from only one test data set. Once created, the model requires only the input from one strain gauge located at each yaw and pitch attachment bracket for the actuation system. This process is not computationally intensive, therefore saving an abundance of time and budget over using full 3D FEA models to develop a similar predictive model. To develop the model, conversion factors between the strain at the gauge locations and corresponding actuator load is derived from the data. These conversion factors are used to create a “conversion ellipse” that bounds the constitutive properties of the nozzle as one lumped factor. Using a 2D cross-sectional analog of the nozzle exit plane, we create a function that allows us to determine the azimuthal location of the unexpected load based on the ratio between yaw and pitch strain readings. Combining this with the “conversion ellipse” yields a function that given the strain reading outputs an induced actuator load, regardless of the azimuthal location of the unexpected load. As previously mentioned, this predictive model is limited in its application as there is inaccuracy introduced by the use of data by only one test as well as simplifying assumptions. This approach makes a useful tool to quickly determine whether uncharacterized actuator loading events can damage actuation systems or induce loading that exceeds design limits.

Seetha A Kolli↗
DOE OSTI2018

Enhanced data validation strategy of air quality monitoring network

Quick validation and detection of faults in measured air quality data is a crucial step towards achieving the objectives of air quality networks. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are threefold: (i) to develop a modeling technique that can be used to predict the normal behavior of air quality variables and help provide accurate reference for monitoring purposes; (ii) to develop fault detection method that can effectively and quickly detect any anomalies in measured air quality data. For this purpose, a new fault detection method that is based on the combination of generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) will be developed. GLRT is a well-known statistical fault detection method that relies on maximizing the detection probability for a given false alarm rate. In this paper, we propose to develop GLRT-based EWMA fault detection method that will be able to detect the changes in the values of certain air quality variables; (iii) to develop fault isolation and identification method that allows defining the fault source(s) in order to properly apply appropriate corrective actions. In this paper, reconstruction approach that is based on Midpoint-Radii Principal Component Analysis (MRPCA) model will be developed to handle the types of data and models associated with air quality monitoring networks. All air quality modeling, fault detection, fault isolation and reconstruction methods developed in this paper will be validated using real air quality data (such as particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen and carbon oxides measurement).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) system performance is crucial for determining its feasibility as a power generation technology and financial asset. PV-based energy solutions offer a viable alternative to traditional energy resources due to their superior Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). A significant challenge in assessing the LCOE of PV systems lies in understanding the Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV systems. Estimating the PLR of PV systems becomes increasingly important in the rapidly growing PV industry. Precise PLR estimation benefits PV users by providing real-time monitoring of PV module performance, while explainable PLR estimation assists PV manufacturers in studying and enhancing the performance of their products. However, traditional PLR estimation methods based on statistical models have notable drawbacks. Firstly, they require user knowledge and decision-making. Secondly, they fail to leverage spatial coherence for fleet-level analysis. Additionally, these methods inherently assume the linearity of degradation, which is not representative of real world degradation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel graph deep learning-based decomposition method called the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for fleet-level PLR estimation (PV-stGNN-PLR). PV-stGNN-PLR decomposes the power timeseries data into aging and fluctuation components, utilizing the aging component to estimate PLR. PV-stGNN-PLR exploits spatial and temporal coherence to derive PLR estimation for all systems in a fleet and imposes flatness and smoothness regularization in loss function to ensure the successful disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. We have evaluated PV-stGNN-PLR on three simulated PV datasets consisting of 100 inverters from 5 sites. Experimental results show that PV-stGNN-PLR obtains a reduction of 33.9% and 35.1% on average in Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distance (ED) in PLR degradation pattern estimation compared to the state-of-the-art PLR estimation methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective

Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, “spam” filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the “barrier to entry” for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods—logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Correction Methods for NASA GeneLab Transcriptomic Datasets

Conducting space biology experiments aboard the International Space Station, particularly those utilizing complex model organisms like mice, is expensive and difficult due to limited crew availability, hardware, and space. As a result, sample numbers from these studies are low, reducing the statistical power of any one experiment. Aggregating spaceflight datasets serves as a method to increase sample numbers, allowing for novel insights through bioinformatic analysis of ‘omics data from merged datasets. However, aggregating datasets can introduce unwanted variation including 1) differences in sample handling, processing, and sequencing platforms between datasets (technical variation) as well as 2) differences in experimental design between datasets such as sex or age of the model organism used. In the present study, NASA GeneLab-hosted RNAseq datasets from rodent liver tissues were used to evaluate several statistical methods to correct for this unwanted variation through two approaches, reference-based and standard. The following correction algorithms were applied with (reference-based) and/or without (standard) considering Universal Mouse RNA Reference samples: ComBat and ComBat_seq from the SVA package, median polish, empirical Bayes, and ANOVA-based algorithms from the MBatch package, and negative binomial regression normalization in the DESeq2 package. For each approach, after the correction algorithm was applied, differential gene expression (DGE) analysis of flight and ground control samples was performed with the combined data. The robustness of each tool was evaluated using BatchQC, to determine statistical differences between datasets before and after correction, Principal Component Analysis, to evaluate global gene expression in samples before and after correction, and by comparing DGE analysis of individual datasets and combined datasets before and after correction. The results showed that the reference-based approach introduced several additional (and likely artificial) DEGs when compared with the standard approach. Thus, the most robust standard correction will be implemented in the GeneLab Visualization 2.0 platform when datasets are combined.

GeneLab, RNA-seq, Batch Correction↗
DOE OSTI2016

ARCADIA and advanced methods licensing and implementation update

AREVA NP is implementing a consistent code and methodology suite for core design and safety analysis, based on first principles modeling with an extremely broad verification and validation data base. Thanks to the high computational power increase in the last decades methods' development and application now include capabilities that were not available in the past. An example is the 3D coupled transient core power distribution characterization, which allows more realistic modeling of plant behavior, removal of inaccuracies by high resolution and access to local information. Another one is the progressive replacement, respectively complement of old deterministic methods by order statistics. This paper provides an update of the current licensing and implementation status of the main AREVA NP new codes (ARCADIA, GALILEO, S-RELAP5) and their associated advanced methods for PWR applications. ARCADIA is the state-of-the-art neutron transport/ thermal-hydraulics (TH)/ thermal-mechanics (TM) code system for PWR applications. Development is completed, implementation started in France, the Netherlands, the U.S.A. and other countries. The extension to BWR applications is on-going. GALILEO is the state-of-the-art fuel rod performance code for PWR and BWR applications. Development is completed, implementation started in France and the U.S.A. S-RELAP5 is a thermal-hydraulic code that has been completely re-coded and modernized in terms of software architecture. S-RELAP5 has been successfully coupled with ARCADIA. It is shown that advanced codes and integrated methods for accident analysis are keys for extending the fuel cycle design space.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian optimized collection strategies for fatigue strength testing

Abstract A statistical framework is presented enabling optimal sampling and analysis of constant life fatigue data. Protocols using Bayesian maximum entropy sampling are built based on conventional staircase and stress step methods, reducing the requirement of prior knowledge for data collection. The Bayesian Staircase method shows improved parameter estimation efficiency, and the Bayesian Stress Step method shows equal accuracy to the standard method at larger step size allowing experimentalists to lessen concerns of loading history. Statistical methods for determining model suitability are shown, highlighting the influence of protocol. Experimental validation is performed, showing the applicability of the methods in laboratory testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

The optimization of high resolution topographic data for 1D hydrodynamic models

The main focus of our research presented in this paper is to optimize and use high resolution topographical data (HRTD) for hydrological modelling. Optimization of HRTD is done by generating adaptive mesh by measuring distance of coarse mesh and the surface of the dataset and adapting the mesh from the perspective of keeping the geometry as close to initial resolution as possible. Technique described in this paper enables computation of very accurate 1-D hydrodynamic models. In the paper, we use HEC-RAS software as a solver. For comparison, we have chosen the amount of generated cells/grid elements (in whole discretization domain and selected cross sections) with respect to preservation of the accuracy of the computational domain. Generation of the mesh for hydrodynamic modelling is strongly reliant on domain size and domain resolution. Topographical dataset used in this paper was created using LiDAR method and it captures 5.9km long section of a catchment of the river Olše. We studied crucial changes in topography for generated mesh. Assessment was done by commonly used statistical and visualization methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Analysis Methodology for the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument on the Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) has been designed to detect high-energy gamma rays and determine their direction of incidence and energy. We propose a reconstruction algorithm based on recent advances in statistical methodology. This method, alternative to the standard event analysis inherited from high energy collider physics experiments, incorporates more accurately the physical processes occurring in the detector, and makes full use of the statistical information available. It could thus provide a better estimate of the direction and energy of the primary photon.

Morris, Robin D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Prediction of slant path rain attenuation statistics at various locations

The paper describes a method for predicting slant path attenuation statistics at arbitrary locations for variable frequencies and path elevation angles. The method involves the use of median reflectivity factor-height profiles measured with radar as well as the use of long-term point rain rate data and assumed or measured drop size distributions. The attenuation coefficient due to cloud liquid water in the presence of rain is also considered. Absolute probability fade distributions are compared for eight cases: Maryland (15 GHz), Texas (30 GHz), Slough, England (19 and 37 GHz), Fayetteville, North Carolina (13 and 18 GHz), and Cambridge, Massachusetts (13 and 18 GHz).

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical mechanics of 'negative temperature' states

Consideration of the dynamics of a two-dimensional guiding center plasma, recently shown by Taylor and McNamara (1971) to be identical to the dynamics of the discrete vortex model of Onsager (1949). A semirigorous application of the methods of equilibrium statistical mechanics to the guiding center plasma (or equivalently, the line vortex system) is presented. An adaptation of the apparatus of the theory of probability is attempted, in the form given by Khinchin (1949) to obtain ensemble-average predictions for the states of the guiding center plasma. Interest focuses primarily on the regime in which the interaction energy is high enough to be above the Onsager 'negative temperature' threshold.

Montgomery, D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Pattern recognition of satellite cloud imagery for improved weather prediction

The major accomplishment was the successful development of a method for extracting time derivative information from geostationary meteorological satellite imagery. This research is a proof-of-concept study which demonstrates the feasibility of using pattern recognition techniques and a statistical cloud classification method to estimate time rate of change of large-scale meteorological fields from remote sensing data. The cloud classification methodology is based on typical shape function analysis of parameter sets characterizing the cloud fields. The three specific technical objectives, all of which were successfully achieved, are as follows: develop and test a cloud classification technique based on pattern recognition methods, suitable for the analysis of visible and infrared geostationary satellite VISSR imagery; develop and test a methodology for intercomparing successive images using the cloud classification technique, so as to obtain estimates of the time rate of change of meteorological fields; and implement this technique in a testbed system incorporating an interactive graphics terminal to determine the feasibility of extracting time derivative information suitable for comparison with numerical weather prediction products.

Gautier, Catherine↗
DOE OSTI2017

Neutron and Gamma Correlations using CGM in MCNP 6.2.0

The general-purpose Monte Carlo radiation-transport code MCNP6{sup TM} came from the integration of MCNP5{sup TM} and MCNPX{sup TM}. The most recent release of MCNP, version 6.2.0, is scheduled for release in early 2017, which includes a variety of bug fixes and new features to the code. MCNP traditionally models nuclear reactions using Monte Carlo sampling techniques on measured and modeled cross-sectional data contained within ACE (A Compact Evaluated Nuclear Data File) libraries. In addition to reaction cross-sections, ACE libraries contain information relating to the production of secondary particles, such as secondary neutrons and photons. For example, an incident neutron on a nucleus can produce a nuclear reaction in the form (n, M{sub n}n'), where n is the incident neutron and M{sub n} is the number of secondary neutrons n' produced. Using this notation, different reactions can be described based on their neutron multiplicity, such as neutron capture (M{sub n} = 0), elastic and inelastic scattering (M{sub n} = 1), and reactions with multiple secondary neutrons (M{sub n} > 1). Accounting for secondary γ-rays emitted from the residual nuclei, this reaction can further be generalized as n, Mnn'M to describe a reaction producing M{sub n} neutrons and M -rays. These values M{sub n} and M are referred to as the neutron and multiplicities, respectively. ACE libraries contain the cross-sectional data for each reaction, and their corresponding statistically averaged multiplicities for neutrons and photons, M-bar{sub n} and M-bar{sub γ}. However, there are several limitations to reaction sampling using ACE libraries. First, the data contained within ACE libraries is limited by the accuracy of the model and/or experiment, which out of necessity can greatly simplify the true physics behind a reaction. For example, the value M{sub γ} in a (n, M{sub n}n'M{sub γ}γ) reaction is determined by the statistically averaged multiplicity M-bar{sub γ} instead of a distribution. Consequently, MCNP, unable to produce a continuous distribution, will utilizes a binary sampling around M-bar{sub γ}. While this sampling method provides a statistically average M{sub γ} over a large simulation, it is an inaccurate representation of an individual reaction and its corresponding secondary particles. Secondary neutrons are affected in a similar manner, such that different kinds of secondary neutrons can be sampled from the same interaction (eg., an inelastic neutron with an [n, 2n] neutron). Lastly, the random sampling technique for secondary particles remains completely independent of the sampled reaction, eliminating the ability to correlate secondary particles for a given reaction. To supplement these data libraries, additional codes and models describing certain nuclear reactions are employed. These codes can fill in the information missing from ACE, provide a better model to the true physics distribution, and can provide true correlated secondary particles, which has many useful applications in research and industry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗