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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Numerical parameter optimizations of the Ignition and Growth model for a HMX plastic bonded explosive

We present here a novel method for optimizing parameters of the Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model for high explosives. The I&G model predicts the shock initiation response of explosives subjected to dynamic loading. However, calibrating the model is a time-consuming process because it has several parameters, typically requires multiple data sets, and there are no direct correlations between parameters and data. In this study, we couple a scalable optimization algorithm to simulations of shock initiation experiments in the multi-physics code ALE3D. We develop four I&G model parameter sets for the HMX (1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane)-based explosive LX-07 [90 wt. % HMX, 10 wt. % Viton A] based on minimizing the difference between calculations and measurements at the embedded pressure gauges in 1D gun shock experiments. Our study shows that a cost function based on both shock time of arrival and pressure pulse shape demonstrates the best agreement with experimental data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Compressive strength of fiber reinforced composite materials

Results of an experimental and analytical investigation of the compressive strength of unidirectional boron-epoxy composite material are presented. Observation of fiber coordinates in a boron-epoxy composite indicates that the fibers contain initial curvature. Combined axial compression and torsion tests were conducted on boron-epoxy tubes, and it was shown that the shear modulus is a function of axial compressive stress. An analytical model which includes initial curvature in the fibers and permits an estimate of the effect of curvature on compressive strength is proposed. Two modes of failure which may result from the application of axial compressive stress are analyzed, delamination and shear instability. Based on tests and analysis, failure of boron-epoxy under axial compressive load is due to shear instability.

Davis, J. G., Jr.↗

Compressive strength of fiber-reinforced composite materials

Results of an experimental and analytical investigation of the compressive strength of unidirectional boron-epoxy composite material are presented. Observation of fiber coordinates in a boron-epoxy composite indicates that the fibers contain initial curvature. Combined axial compression and torsion tests were conducted on boron-epoxy tubes and it was shown that the shear modulus is a function of axial compressive stress. An analytical model which includes initial curvature in the fibers and permits an estimate of the effect of curvature on compressive strength is proposed. Two modes of failure which may result from the application of axial compressive stress are analyzed - delamination and shear instability. Based on tests and analysis, failure of boron-epoxy under axial compressive load is due to shear instability.

Davis, J. G., Jr.↗

Rapid Development of Instrument Thermal Models: Perspectives and Guidelines from NASA Goddard’s Instrument Design Laboratory

- The design and development of robotic spaceflight instruments is a critical part of NASA’s vision to discover and expand knowledge for the benefit of humanity - For typical flight instrument projects, thermal engineers will develop initial instrument thermal models over weeks or months, then iterate them over a project’s lifespan – In each iteration, the engineer will: - Refine their thermal models and thermal designs in accordance with updates from other subsystems - Perform trade studies - Solve very detailed and complex analysis problems, including worst-cases and contingencies - Pick hardware and plan for testing and integration - However, prior to a project being established, or for proposal development at an early conceptual stage, the luxury of multiple instrument design iterations may be limited or nonexistent – Within a short timeline, how do you complete a thermal model or explore multiple possible instrument configurations? – What are the critical parameters for your model? Which details do you include or leave out?

Kan Yang↗

A Validated Set of MIDAS V5 Task Network Model Scenarios to Evaluate Nextgen Closely Spaced Parallel Operations Concepts

The Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) scenario is a complex, human performance model scenario that tested alternate operator roles and responsibilities to a series of off-nominal operations on approach and landing (see Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013). The model links together the procedures, equipment, crewstation, and external environment to produce predictions of operator performance in response to Next Generation system designs, like those expected in the National Airspaces NextGen concepts. The task analysis that is contained in the present report comes from the task analysis window in the MIDAS software. These tasks link definitions and states for equipment components, environmental features as well as operational contexts. The current task analysis culminated in 3300 tasks that included over 1000 Subject Matter Expert (SME)-vetted, re-usable procedural sets for three critical phases of flight; the Descent, Approach, and Land procedural sets (see Gore et al., 2011 for a description of the development of the tasks included in the model; Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the model, and its results; Hooey, Gore, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the guidelines that were generated from the models results; Gore, Hooey, Foyle, 2012 for a description of the models implementation and its settings). The rollout, after landing checks, taxi to gate and arrive at gate illustrated in Figure 1 were not used in the approach and divert scenarios exercised. The other networks in Figure 1 set up appropriate context settings for the flight deck.The current report presents the models task decomposition from the tophighest level and decomposes it to finer-grained levels. The first task that is completed by the model is to set all of the initial settings for the scenario runs included in the model (network 75 in Figure 1). This initialization process also resets the CAD graphic files contained with MIDAS, as well as the embedded operator models that comprise MIDAS. Following the initial settings, the model progresses to begin the first tasks required of the two flight deck operators, the Captain (CA) and the First Officer (FO). The task sets will initialize operator specific settings prior to loading all of the alerts, probes, and other events that occur in the scenario. As a note, the CA and FO were terms used in developing this model but the CA can also be thought of as the Pilot Flying (PF), while the FO can be considered the Pilot-Not-Flying (PNF)or Pilot Monitoring (PM). As such, the document refers to the operators as PFCA and PNFFO respectively.

task network model↗

An initialization procedure for assimilating geostationary satellite data into numerical weather prediction models

An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

Axions and SN 1987A: Axion trapping

If an axion of mass between about 10(exp -3) eV and 1 eV exists, axion emission would have significantly affected the cooling of the nascent neutron star associated with SN 1987A. For an axion of mass less than about 10(exp -2) eV, axions produced deep inside the neutron star simply stream out; in a previous paper this case has been addressed. Remarkably, for an axion of mass greater than about 10(exp -2) eV axions would, like neutrinos, have a mean-free path that is smaller than the size of a neutron star, and thus would become 'trapped' and radiated from an axion sphere. In this paper the trapping regime is treated by using numerical models of the initial cooling of a hot neutron star that incorporate a leakage approximation scheme for axion-energy transport. The axion opacity is computed due to inverse nucleon-nucleon, axion bremsstrahlung, and numerical models are used to calculate the integrated axion luminosity, the temperature of the axion sphere, and the effect of axion emission on the neutrino bursts detected by the Kamiokande 2 (K2) and Irvine-Michigan-Brookhaven (IMB) water-Cherenkov detectors. The larger the axion mass, the stronger the trapping and the smaller the axion luminosity. The earlier estimate is confirmed and refined of the axion mass above which trapping is so strong that axion emission does not significantly affect the neutrino burst. Based upon the neutrino-burst duration--the most sensitive barometer of axion cooling--it is concluded that for an axion mass of greater than about 0.3 eV, axion emission would not have had a significant effect on the neutrino bursts detected by K2 and IMB. The present work, together with the previous work, strongly suggests that an axion with mass in the interval 10(exp -3) eV to 0.3 eV is excluded by SN 1987A.

Burrows, Adam↗

Projecting the Lasting Fate of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption on the Stratosphere through Connecting Measurements to Models

On 15th Jan. 2022 the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) injected approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, but more significantly added 150-170 Tg of water vapor to the stratospheric background (over a 10% perturbation) in a matter of several hours. The sulfur dioxide rapidly converted to sulfate aerosol and along with water vapor, was transported around the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics into midlatitudes with some transport into the Northern Hemisphere. With a much longer lifetime than sulfate aerosol, measurable water vapor anomalies are likely to persist for the remainder of the decade. Satellite measurements from limb and nadir viewing observing instruments provide the information needed to reasonably initialize the HTHH eruption in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model using the “replay” framework coupled to the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratosphere-troposphere chemical mechanism for the recent past and continue the simulations into the future with the free running chemistry climate model (CCM). Using a number of model ensemble members together with the satellite observations, we are beginning to quantify how the HTHH eruption is perturbing stratospheric composition and climate and projecting the influences to come as the enhanced water vapor continues to spread globally with only very slow removal mechanisms. We will also discuss some of the future measurement needs to understand how the atmosphere is responding to events like the HTHH eruption, large wildfires, and a changing climate.

volcano↗

X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission

Abstract In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor or other means of deflection proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's X-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. The relevant physics in these simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed X-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull that can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission calculation. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials at a range of porosities, two different source spectra, and a broad range of radiation fluences, source durations, and angles of incidence. Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the model-initiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Axions and SN 1987A: Axion trapping

If an axion of mass between about 10(exp -3) and 10 eV exists, axion emission would have significantly affected the cooling of the nascent neutron star associated with SN 1987A. For an axion of mass greater than about 10(exp -2) eV axions would, like neutrinos, have a mean-free path that is smaller than the size of a neutron star, and thus would become trapped and radiated from an axion sphere. The trapping regime is treated by using numerical models of the initial cooling of a hot neutron star that incorporate a diffusion approximation for axion-energy transport. The axion opacity due to inverse nucleon-nucleon, axion bremsstrahlung is computed; and then the numerical models are used to calculate the integrated axion luminosity, the temperature of the axion sphere, and the effect of axion emission on the neutrino bursts detected by the Kamiokande II (KII) and Irvine-Michigan-Brookhaven (IMB) water-Cherenkov detectors. The larger the axion mass, the stronger the trapping and the smaller the axion luminosity. The estimate of the axion mass is confirmed above which trapping is so strong that axion emission does not significantly affect the neutrino burst. Based upon the neutrino-burst duration - the most sensitive barometer of axion cooling - it is concluded that for an axion mass greater than about 3 eV axion emission would not have had a significant effect on the neutrino bursts detected by KII and IMB. It is strongly suggested that an axion with mass in the interval 10(exp -3) to 3 eV is excluded by the observation of neutrinos from SN 1987A.

Burrows, Adam↗

Fuzzy Modeling and Parallel Distributed Compensation for Aircraft Flight Control from Simulated Flight Data

A method is described that combines fuzzy system identification techniques with Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) to develop nonlinear control methods for aircraft using minimal a priori knowledge, as part of NASA’s Learn-to-Fly initiative. A fuzzy model was generated with simulated flight data, and consisted of a weighted average of multiple linear time invariant state-space cells having parameters estimated using the equation-error approach and a least-squares estimator. A compensator was designed for each subsystem using Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) to guarantee closed-loop stability and performance requirements. This approach is demonstrated using simulated flight data to automatically develop a fuzzy model and design control laws for a simplified longitudinal approximation of the F-16 nonlinear flight dynamics simulation. Results include a comparison of flight data with the estimated fuzzy models and simulations that illustrate the feasibility and utility of the combined fuzzy modeling and control approach.

Weinstein, Rose↗

Diffusion kinetics of 3 He in pyroxene and plagioclase and applications to cosmogenic exposure dating and paleothermometry in mafic rocks

In this study, we investigate the diffusivity of cosmogenic 3 He in a variety of plagioclase and pyroxene compositions, and its application to paleothermometry and exposure dating in these minerals, through stepwise degassing experiments. While cosmogenic 3 He has been utilized for exposure dating in pyroxene for decades due to its retentivity, plagioclase, often found along with pyroxene in mafic rocks, is generally less retentive of cosmogenic noble gas. However, the diffusivity of 3 He in either plagioclase or pyroxene has not yet been measured quantitatively. A challenge in measuring diffusion kinetics by step-degassing experiments in poorly retentive minerals is the fact that significant amounts of He can be lost prior to the experiment. To address this issue, we apply a forward “multiple diffusion domain” (MDD) inversion model that includes model predictions of initial gas loss during irradiation and storage of the samples to account for this observation and add constraints to the diffusion parameters. We find that 3 He diffusivity in plagioclase appears to be highly variable. This variability can be explained by the MDD inversion models' inability to constrain the diffusion parameters when significant gas has been lost during irradiation and/or prolonged storage prior to experiment analysis, resulting in an overestimation of 3 He retentivity. Plagioclase samples that were kept frozen after irradiation, to limit this initial gas loss, yielded the most reliable estimate of diffusion kinetics. We find that 3 He in plagioclase is diffusively lost at Earth's surface temperatures on a timescale of 100 years and is therefore unsuitable for surface temperature paleothermometry. On the contrary, we find cosmogenic 3 He in pyroxene to be retentive at Earth's surface temperatures on a 1-million-year timescale.

Bergelin, Marie [Berkeley Geochronology Center (BG↗

Projecting the Lasting Fate of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption on the Stratosphere through Connecting Measurements to Models

On 15th Jan. 2022 the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) injected approximately 0.5 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, but more significantly added 150-170 Tg of water vapor to the stratospheric background (over a 10% perturbation) in a matter of several hours. The sulfur dioxide rapidly converted to sulfate aerosol and along with water vapor, was transported around the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics into midlatitudes with some transport into the Northern Hemisphere. With a much longer lifetime than sulfate aerosol, measurable water vapor mass anomalies have persisted with only small losses over the past almost 2 years and are likely to continue above background for the remainder of the decade. Satellite measurements from limb and nadir viewing observing instruments provide the information needed to reasonably initialize the HTHH eruption in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model using the “replay” framework coupled to the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) stratosphere-troposphere chemical mechanism for the recent past and continue the simulations into the future with the free running chemistry climate model (CCM). Using a number of model ensemble members together with the satellite observations, we quantify how the HTHH eruption is perturbing stratospheric composition and climate and projecting the influences to come as the enhanced water vapor continues in the stratosphere with only very slow removal mechanisms. HTHH eruption provides a useful test of chemistry climate models and an opportunity for observation-based process understanding, which we will highlight.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai↗

A Non-Modeling Exploration of Residential Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Adoption and Non-Adoption

Although U.S. deployment of residential rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has accelerated in recent years, PV is still installed on less than 1 percent of single-family homes. Most research on household PV adoption focuses on scaling initial markets and modeling predicted growth rather than considering more broadly why adoption occurs. Among the studies that have investigated the characteristics of PV adoption, most collected data from adopters, sometimes with additional non-adopter data, and rarely from people who considered but did not adopt PV. Yet the vast majority of Americans are non-adopters, and they are a diverse group - understanding their ways of evaluating PV adoption is important. Similarly, PV is a unique consumer product, which makes it difficult to apply findings from studies of other technologies to PV. In addition, little research addresses the experience of households after they install PV. This report helps fill some of these gaps in the existing literature. The results inform a more detailed understanding of residential PV adoption, while helping ensure that adoption is sufficiently beneficial to adopters and even non-adopters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Plant-level performance and degradation of 31 GW DC of utility-scale PV in the United States

In this updated study, which samples 50% more capacity than the original and adds two additional years of operating history, we assess the performance of a fleet of 631 utility-scale PV plants totaling 31.0 GW DC (23.6 GW AC ) of capacity that achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007-2018 and that have operated for at least two full calendar years. We use detailed information on individual plant characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, to model expected or “ideal” capacity factors in each full calendar year of each plant’s operating history. A comparison of ideal versus actual first-year capacity factors finds that this fleet has modestly underperformed initial expectations (as modeled) on average, though perhaps due as much to modeling issues as to actual underperformance. We then analyze fleet-wide performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on plant performance. The resulting average fleet-wide degradation rate of -1.2%/year (±0.1%) represents a slight improvement (seemingly driven by the oldest plants in our sample) over the -1.3%/year (±0.2%) found in our original study, yet is still of greater magnitude than is commonly found. We emphasize, however, that these fleet-wide estimates reflect both recoverable and unrecoverable degradation across the entire plant, and so will naturally be of greater magnitude than module- or cell-level studies, and/or studies that focus only on unrecoverable degradation. Moreover, when focusing on a sub-sample of newer and larger plants with higher DC:AC ratios—i.e., plants that more-closely resemble what is being built today—we find a more moderate sample-wide average performance decline of -0.7%/year (±0.4%), which is more in line with other estimates from the recent literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A comprehensive numerical investigation on spray models for Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition engines

Gasoline direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engines generate a large portion of their unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) and soot emissions during the cold-start phase. A predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling framework can be used to understand the physical processes that characterize fuel spray evolution and fuel-film formation at cold start conditions, which can help to reduce engine-out particulate emissions. This study systematically evaluated spray submodels and developed a set of simulation best practices for physical-numerical submodels with the goal of enabling accurate simulations of liquid spray behavior in a DISI engine. Three comprehensive experimental datasets containing free-spray projected liquid volume (PLV), liquid volume fraction (LVF), and near-field X-ray radiography data were used to validate the simulation results and evaluate the spray submodels. Systematic analysis delved into injected parcel distribution, droplet collision, spray breakup, and evaporation via a detailed assessment of the relevant spray submodels. Moreover, the effects of turbulence models and the initial turbulent flow properties on the liquid spray evolution were examined. Based on extensive calibration efforts, a set of simulation best practices for the free spray was developed and validated against the PLV/LVF data. Simulation results indicated that the uniform distribution for parcel initialization, coupled with appropriate droplet collision submodels, provides an improved spray morphology compared to the cluster distribution. The findings also underscored the importance of calibrating the Kelvin-Helmholtz Rayleigh-Taylor (KH-RT) breakup model constants and droplet heat transfer coefficient scaling factor to achieve favorable agreement regarding measured liquid penetration and spray widths. In conclusion, this study marks a substantial stride towards accurately predicting fuel film evolution and soot formation within DISI engine performance.

ECN Spray G↗

International fuel performance study of fresh fuel experiments for PCMI effects during RIA experiments

This paper presents the results of High-burnup Experiments for Reactivity-initiated Accident (HERA) Modeling & Simulation (M&S) exercise. The HERA project under the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Second Framework for Irradiation Experiments (FIDES-II) program is focused on studying Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel behavior during Reactivity-Initiated Accident (RIA) conditions. The Part I M&S cases are based on a series of tests in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the United States and the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the test design to accomplish its goals in establishing clearer understanding of the effects of power pulse width during RIA conditions. Further, the blind predictions using various computational tools have been performed and compared amongst to interpret the behaviors of high burnup fuels during RIA. While many international participants evaluate the thermal–mechanical behavior of fuel rod under different conditions, a considerable scatter of outputs comes out for the cases due to the disparity between codes in predicting mechanical behaviors. In general, however, the results of thermal–mechanical analysis elaborate that nominal design conditions the shorter pulse width tests in NSRR should cause cladding failures while the TREAT tests appear to have more split prediction of failure or not. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis varying key testing parameters reveals the considerable effect of power pulse width and total energy deposition on prediction of fuel rod failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Phase diagram of the triangular-lattice Potts antiferromagnet

Here, we study the phase diagram of the triangular-lattice Q-state Potts model in the real $(Q, v)$ -plane, where $v={\rm e}^J-1$ is the temperature variable. Our first goal is to provide an obviously missing feature of this diagram: the position of the antiferromagnetic critical curve. This curve turns out to possess a bifurcation point with two branches emerging from it, entailing important consequences for the global phase diagram. We have obtained accurate numerical estimates for the position of this curve by combining the transfer-matrix approach for strip graphs with toroidal boundary conditions and the recent method of critical polynomials. The second goal of this work is to study the corresponding $A_{p-1}$ RSOS model on the torus, for integer $p=4, 5, \ldots, 8$ . We clarify its relation to the corresponding Potts model, in particular concerning the role of boundary conditions. For certain values of p, we identify several new critical points and regimes for the RSOS model and we initiate the study of the flows between the corresponding field theories.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗