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DOE OSTI2025

Propagating information content: an example with advection

The mathematical algorithm to derive geophysical information from remote sensing observations is called a retrieval. The mathematics of many retrieval problems are ill-posed, and thus a priori information is used to help constrain the derived geophysical variable to realistic values. One quantity of interest, therefore, is the information content of the observation. Perfect information content in the observation would be achieved if the retrieval were able to capture any perturbation in the desired geophysical variable with the proper magnitude. Many new data products can be derived by combining geophysical variables retrieved from multiple different remote sensors. This paper explores, for the first time, how to derive the information content of these derived products. The approach uses traditional error propagation techniques to derive the uncertainty of the derived field twice, both when the observations are used in the retrieval and also when only the a priori information from each remote sensor is propagated. These two uncertainties are then used to provide an estimate of the information content of the derived geophysical variable. This study demonstrates how to propagate the uncertainties from six different instruments to provide the information content for water vapor and temperature advection. A multi-month analysis demonstrates that, in a mean sense, the information content for temperature advection is nearly unity for all heights below 700 m while, the information content for water vapor advection is somewhat more variable but still larger than 0.6 in the convective boundary layer.

Turner, David D. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Path to Improving Simulated Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea using Airborne In Situ Observations of Subgrid-Scale Variability

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. One of the main reasons for this problem are the possible unrealistic assumptions that models/reanalyses make about the subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of meteorological properties, as well as the relationship between SGS variability and grid-scale (GS) cloud properties. We utilize cloud and thermodynamic data of low level (primarily) liquid clouds collected from two aircraft campaigns conducted over the Beaufort Sea to better understand and characterize this problem. Examining data from the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign reveals that GS cloud water variability is closely related with SGS distribution of total water (i.e. water vapor + cloud water). Multiple models/reanalyses use SGS supersaturated total water (relative to GS saturation) as a threshold for partitioning available water for condensation, and indeed we find significant correlation between GS cloud water and SGS supersaturation. However, we also find that the assumption of a static threshold of 100% saturation to be unrealistic. Empirical calculations from the ARISE data show a large sensitivity of this threshold to GS relative humidity, and so a microphysical parameterization allowing the threshold to vary according to GS thermodynamic properties may result in more realistic GS cloud water values. Finally, to determine how sensitive the ARISE-derived results are to that particular campaign, we include additional data from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE) conducted in 1998. The inclusion of the second dataset will help with demonstrating the robustness of the results and their utility in improving the representation of Arctic clouds in models and reanalyses.

J Brant Dodson↗

NASA NTRS1994

Magnetocentrifugally driven flows from young stars and disks. 2: Formulation of the dynamical problem

We formulate the dynamical problem of a cool wind centrifugally driven from the magnetic interface of a young star and an adjoining Keplerian disk. We examine the situation for mildly accreting T Tauri stars that rotate slowly as well as rapidly accreting protostars that rotate near break-up. In both cases a wind can be driven from a small X-region just outside the stellar magnetopause, where the field lines assume an open geometry and are rooted to material that rotates at an angular speed equal both to the local Keplerian value and to the stellar angular speed. Assuming axial symmetry for the ideal magnetohydrodynamic flow, which requires us to postpone asking how the (lightly ionized) gas is loaded onto field lines, we can formally integrate all the governing equations analytically except for a partial equation that describes how streamlines spread in the meridional plane. Apart from the difficulty of dealing with PDEs of mixed type, finding the functional forms of the conserved quantities along streamlines - the ratio beta of magnetic field to mass flux, the specific energy H of the fluid in the rotating frame, and the total specific angular momentum J carried in the matter and the field - constitutes a standard difficulty in this kind of (Grad-Shafranov) formalism. Fortunately, because the ratio of the thermal speed of the mass-loss regions to the Keplerian speed of rotation of the interface constitutes a small parameter epsilon, we can attack the overall problem by the method of matched asymptotic expansions. This procedure leads to a natural and systematic technique for obtaining the relevant functional dependences of beta, H, and J. Moreover, we are able to solve analytically for the properties of the flow emergent from the small transsonic region driven by gas pressure without having to specify the detailed form of any of the conserved functions, beta, H, and J. This analytical solution provides inner boundary conditions for the numerical computation in a companion paper by Najita & Shu of the larger region where the main acceleration to terminal speeds occurs.

Shu, Frank H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ocean Turbulence, III: New GISS Vertical Mixing Scheme

We have found a new way to express the solutions of the RSM (Reynolds Stress Model) equations that allows us to present the turbulent diffusivities for heat, salt and momentum in a way that is considerably simpler and thus easier to implement than in previous work. The RSM provides the dimensionless mixing efficiencies Gamma-alpha (alpha stands for heat, salt and momentum). However, to compute the diffusivities, one needs additional information, specifically, the dissipation Epsilon. Since a dynamic equation for the latter that includes the physical processes relevant to the ocean is still not available, one must resort to different sources of information outside the RSM to obtain a complete Mixing Scheme usable in OGCMs. As for the RSM results, we show that the Gamma-alpha s are functions of both Ri and Rq (Richardson number and density ratio representing double diffusion, DD); the Gamma-alpha are different for heat, salt and momentum; in the case of heat, the traditional value Gamma-h = 0.2 is valid only in the presence of strong shear (when DD is inoperative) while when shear subsides, NATRE data show that Gamma-h can be three times as large, a result that we reproduce. The salt Gamma-s is given in terms of Gamma-h. The momentum Gamma-m has thus far been guessed with different prescriptions while the RSM provides a well defined expression for Gamma-m(Ri,R-rho). Having tested Gamma-h, we then test the momentum Gamma-m by showing that the turbulent Prandtl number Gamma-m/Gamma-h vs. Ri reproduces the available data quite well. As for the dissipation epsilon, we use different representations, one for the mixed layer (ML), one for the thermocline and one for the ocean;s bottom. For the ML, we adopt a procedure analogous to the one successfully used in PB (planetary boundary layer) studies; for the thermocline, we employ an expression for the variable epsilon/N(exp 2) from studies of the internal gravity waves spectra which includes a latitude dependence; for the ocean bottom, we adopt the enhanced bottom diffusivity expression used by previous authors but with a state of the art internal tidal energy formulation and replace the fixed Gamma-alpha = 0.2 with the RSM result that brings into the problem the Ri, R-rho dependence of the Gamma-alpha; the unresolved bottom drag, which has thus far been either ignored or modeled with heuristic relations, is modeled using a formalism we previously developed and tested in PBL studies. We carried out several tests without an OGCM. Prandtl and flux Richardson numbers vs. Ri. The RSM model reproduces both types of data satisfactorily. DD and Mixing efficiency Gamma-h(Ri,Rq). The RSM model reproduces well the NATRE data. Bimodal epsilon-distribution. NATRE data show that epsilon (Ri < 1) approximately equals 10epsilon(Ri > 1), which our model reproduces. Heat to salt flux ratio. In the Ri much greater than 1 regime, the RSM predictions reproduce the data satisfactorily. NATRE mass diffusivity. The z-profile of the mass diffusivity reproduces well the measurements at NATRE. The local form of the mixing scheme is algebraic with one cubic equation to solve.

Canuto, V. M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Convergence acceleration of implicit schemes in the presence of high aspect ratio grid cells

The performance of Navier-Stokes codes are influenced by several phenomena. For example, the robustness of the code may be compromised by the lack of grid resolution, by a need for more precise initial conditions or because all or part of the flowfield lies outside the flow regime in which the algorithm converges efficiently. A primary example of the latter effect is the presence of extended low Mach number and/or low Reynolds number regions which cause convergence deterioration of time marching algorithms. Recent research into this problem by several workers including the present authors has largely negated this difficulty through the introduction of time-derivative preconditioning. In the present paper, we employ the preconditioned algorithm to address convergence difficulties arising from sensitivity to grid stretching and high aspect ratio grid cells. Strong grid stretching is particularly characteristic of turbulent flow calculations where the grid must be refined very tightly in the dimension normal to the wall, without a similar refinement in the tangential direction. High aspect ratio grid cells also arise in problems that involve high aspect ratio domains such as combustor coolant channels. In both situations, the high aspect ratio cells can lead to extreme deterioration in convergence. It is the purpose of the present paper to address the reasons for this adverse response to grid stretching and to suggest methods for enhancing convergence under such circumstances. Numerical algorithms typically possess a maximum allowable or optimum value for the time step size, expressed in non-dimensional terms as a CFL number or vonNeumann number (VNN). In the presence of high aspect ratio cells, the smallest dimension of the grid cell controls the time step size causing it to be extremely small, which in turn results in the deterioration of convergence behavior. For explicit schemes, this time step limitation cannot be exceeded without violating stability restrictions of the scheme. On the other hand, for implicit schemes, which are typically unconditionally stable, there appears to be room for improvement through careful tailoring of the time step definition based on results of linear stability analyses. In the present paper, we focus on the central-differenced alternating direction implicit (ADI) scheme. The understanding garnered from this analyses can then be applied to other implicit schemes. In order to systematically study the effects of aspect ratio and the methods of mitigating the associated problems, we use a two pronged approach. We use stability analyses as a tool for predicting numerical convergence behavior and numerical experiments on simple model problems to verify predicted trends. Based on these analyses, we determine that efficient convergence may be obtained at all aspect ratios by getting a combination of things right. Primary among these are the proper definition of the time step size, proper selection of viscous preconditioner and the precise treatment of boundary conditions. These algorithmic improvements are then applied to a variety of test cases to demonstrate uniform convergence at all aspect ratios.

Buelow, B. E. O.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Uniqueness of a solution of a steady state photochemical problem: Applications to Mars

Based on the conservation of chemical elements in chemical reactions, a rule is proved that the number of boundary conditions given by densities and/or non-zero velocities should not be less than the number of chemical elements in the system, and the components given by densities and velocities should include all elements in the system. Applications of this rule to Mars are considered. It is proved that a problem of CO2-H2O chemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars, say, in the range of 0-80 km does not have an unique solution, if only CO2 and H2O densities are given at the lower boundary, while all other boundary conditions are fluxes. Two models of this type are discussed. These models fit the same boundary conditions, are balanced with a relative uncertainty of 10(exp -4) for H2, and predict the O2, CO, and H2 mixing ratios which differ by order of magnitude. One more species density, e.g. that of O2, should be specified at the boundary to obtain the unique solution. The situation is better if the upper boundary is extended to the exobase where thermal escape velocities of H and H2 can be specified. However, in this case, either oxygen nonthermal escape rate or the O2 density at the surface should be given as the boundary condition. Two models of Mars' photochemistry, with and without nitrogen chemistry, are considered. The oxygen nonthermal escape rate of 1.2 x 10(exp 8) cm(exp -2) s(exp -1) is given at 240 km and is balanced with the total hydrogen escape rate within uncertainty of 1 percent for both models. Both models fit the measured O2 and CO mixing ratios, the O3 line absorption at 9.6 microns, and the O2 1.27 microns dayglow within the uncertainties of the measured values; although, the model without nitrogen chemistry fits better.

Krasnopolsky, V. A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mathematical Analysis of the Solidification Behavior of Plain Steel Based on Solute- and Heat-Transfer Equations in the Liquid–Solid Zone

An analytical approximate solution to non-linear solute- and heat-transfer equations in the unsteady-state mushy zone of Fe-C plain steel has been obtained, assuming a linear relationship between the solid fraction and the temperature of the mushy zone. The heat transfer equations for both the solid and liquid zone along with the boundary conditions have been linked with the equations to solve the whole equations. The model predictions (e.g., the solidification constants and the effective partition ratio) agree with the generally accepted values and with a separately performed numerical analysis. The solidus temperature predicted by the model is in the intermediate range of the reported formulas. The model and Neuman’s solution are consistent in the low carbon range. A conventional numerical heat analysis (i.e., an equivalent specific heat method using the solidus temperature predicted by the model) is consistent with the model predictions for Fe-C plain steels. The model presented herein simplifies the computations to solve the solute- and heat-transfer simultaneous equations while searching for a solidus temperature as a part of the solution. Thus, this model can reduce the complexity of analyses considering the heat- and solute-transfer phenomena in the mushy zone.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

A nodal domain theorem for integrable billiards in two dimensions

Eigenfunctions of integrable planar billiards are studied — in particular, the number of nodal domains, ν of the eigenfunctions with Dirichlet boundary conditions are considered. The billiards for which the time-independent Schrödinger equation (Helmholtz equation) is separable admit trivial expressions for the number of domains. Here, we discover that for all separable and non-separable integrable billiards, ν satisfies certain difference equations. This has been possible because the eigenfunctions can be classified in families labelled by the same value of mmodkn, given a particular k, for a set of quantum numbers, m,n. Further, we observe that the patterns in a family are similar and the algebraic representation of the geometrical nodal patterns is found. Instances of this representation are explained in detail to understand the beauty of the patterns. This paper therefore presents a mathematical connection between integrable systems and difference equations. - Highlights: • We find that the number of nodal domains of eigenfunctions of integrable, planar billiards satisfy a class of difference equations. • The eigenfunctions labelled by quantum numbers (m,n) can be classified in terms of mmodkn. • A theorem is presented, realising algebraic representations of geometrical patterns exhibited by the domains. • This work presents a connection between integrable systems and difference equations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2013

Compressional boundaries in the Earth's foreshock

The terrestrial foreshock is a highly dynamic region populated by particles, waves and non-linear structures such as shocklets, SLAMS, hot flow anomalies, cavities and cavitons. Recently a new structure named foreshock compressional boundary (FCB) was reported in global hybrid simulations by Omidi et al. (2009). This structure represents a transition region that separates the highly disturbed foreshock plasma from pristine solar wind or from the region of field-aligned ion beams. The FCB is associated with a strong compression of magnetic field and density. Besides the enhancements in the field and density, the FCB also shows a region where these two quantities decrease below the ambient solar wind (SW) values. Here, we study a FCB observed by Cluster-1. This FCB shows that although sometimes FCBs are transition regions between the pristine solar wind plasma and the foreshock plasma, in this case the FCB separates a region with large amplitude waves from regions with high frequency (f{approx}1.7 Hz) small amplitude waves. We analyze the FCB properties, ion distributions inside them, and the waves near the structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Heat Pipe Vapor Dynamics

The dynamic behavior of the vapor flow in heat pipes is investigated at startup and during operational transients. The vapor is modeled as two-dimensional, compressible viscous flow in an enclosure with inflow and outflow boundary conditions. For steady-state and operating transients, the SIMPLER method is used. In this method a control volume approach is employed on a staggered grid which makes the scheme very stable. It is shown that for relatively low input heat fluxes the compressibility of the vapor flow is low and the SIMPLER scheme is suitable for the study of transient vapor dynamics. When the input heat flux is high or the process under a startup operation starts at very low pressures and temperatures, the vapor is highly compressible and a shock wave is created in the evaporator. It is shown that for a wide range of input heat fluxes, the standard methods, including the SIMPLER scheme, are not suitable. A nonlinear filtering technique, along with the centered difference scheme, are then used for shock capturing as well as for the solution of the cell Reynolds-number problem. For high heat flux, the startup transient phase involves multiple shock reflections in the evaporator region. Each shock reflection causes a significant increase in the local pressure and a large pressure drop along the heat pipe. Furthermore, shock reflections cause flow reversal in the evaporation region and flow circulations in the adiabatic region. The maximum and maximum-averaged pressure drops in different sections of the heat pipe oscillate periodically with time because of multiple shock reflections. The pressure drop converges to a constant value at steady state. However, it is significantly higher than its steady-state value at the initiation of the startup transient. The time for the vapor core to reach steady-state condition depends on the input heat flux, the heat pipe geometry, the working fluid, and the condenser conditions. However, the vapor transient time, for an Na-filled heat pipe is on the order of seconds. Depending on the time constant for the overall system, the vapor transient time may be very short. Therefore, the vapor core may be assumed to be quasi-steady in the transient analysis of a heat pipe operation.

Issacci, Farrokh↗

DOE OSTI2013

Nonlinear instability in simulations of Large Plasma Device turbulence

Several simulations of turbulence in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) [Gekelman et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 62, 2875 (1991)] are energetically analyzed and compared with each other and with the experiment. The simulations use the same model, but different axial boundary conditions. They employ either periodic, zero-value, zero-derivative, or sheath axial boundaries. The linear stability physics is different between the scenarios because the various boundary conditions allow the drift wave instability to access different axial structures, and the sheath boundary simulation contains a conducting wall mode instability which is just as unstable as the drift waves. Nevertheless, the turbulence in all the simulations is relatively similar because it is primarily driven by a robust nonlinear instability that is the same for all cases. The nonlinear instability preferentially drives k{sub ∥}=0 potential energy fluctuations, which then three-wave couple to k{sub ∥}≠0 potential energy fluctuations in order to access the adiabatic response to transfer their energy to kinetic energy fluctuations. The turbulence self-organizes to drive this nonlinear instability, which destroys the linear eigenmode structures, making the linear instabilities ineffective.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

A photostationary state analysis of the NO2-NO system based on airborne observations from the subtropical/tropical North and South Atlantic

The Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation 3 (CITE 3) NO-NO2 database has provided a unique opportunity to examine important aspects of tropospheric photochemistry as related to the rapid cycling between NO and NO2. Our results suggest that when quantitative testing of this photochemical system is based on airborne field data, extra precautions may need to be taken in the analysis. This was particularly true in the CITE 3 data analysis where different regional environments produced quite different results when evaluating the photochemical test ratio (NO2)(sub expt)/(NO2)(sub calc), designated here as R(sub E)/R(sub C). The quantity (NO2)(sub Calc) was evaluated using the following photostationary state expression: (NO2)(sub Calc) = k(sub 1)(O3) + k(sub 4)(HO2) + k(sub 5)(CH3O2) + k(sub 6)(RO2))(NO)(sub Expt)/J(sub 2). The four most prominent regional environmental data sets identified in this analysis were those labeled here as free-tropospheric northern hemisphere (FTNH), free-tropospheric tropical northern hemisphere (FTTNH), free-tropospheric southern hemisphere (FTSH), and tropical-marine boundary layer (plume) (TMBL(P)). The respective R(sub E)/R(sub C) mean and median values for these four data subsets were 1.74, 1.69; 3.00, 2.79; 1.01, 0.97; and 0.99, 0.94. Of the four data subsets listed, the two that were statistically the most robust were FTNH and FTSH; for these the respective R(sub E)/R(sub C) mean and standard deviation of the mean values were 1.74 +/- 0.07 and 1.01 +/- 0.04. The FTSH observations were in good agreement with theory, whereas those from the FTNH data set were in significant disagreement. An examination of the critical photochemical parameters O3, UV(zenith), NO, NO2, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) for these two databases indicated that the most likely source of the R(sub E)/R(sub C) bias in the FTNH results was the presence of a systematic error in the observational data rather than a shortening in our understanding of fundamental photochemical processes. Although neither a chemical nor meteorological analyses of these data identified this error with complete certainty, they did point to the three most likely possibilities: (1) an NO2 interference from a yet unidentified NO(y) species: (2) the presence of unmeasured hydrocarbons, the integrated reactivity of which would be equivalent to approximately 2.7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) of toluene; or (3) some combination of points (1) and (2). Details concerning hypotheses (1) and (2) as well as possible ways to minimize these problems in future airborne missions are discussed.

Davis, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.

Teixeira, J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Features of solar wind acceleration according to radio occultation data

In addressing one of the fundamental problems in solar physics establishing the mechanism(s) responsible for the solar wind acceleration and the corona heating - it is essential to have a reliable knowledge of the heliocentric radial dependence of the solar wind properties. Adequate data are available for small solar distances R less than 4 R(solar mass) from coronal white light and EUV observations and at distances R greater than 60 R(solar mass) from in situ measurements. One of the few methods available to fill in the gap between these boundaries is the radio scintillation technique. Taking the example of the solar wind velocity, the most reliable such measurements are obtained when phase fluctuation observations of scattered radio waves, which are not susceptible to saturation effects, are recorded at two or more widely-spaced ground stations. Two extensive observation campaigns of this type were carried out with the Venus-orbiting satellites Venera 10 in 1976 and Venera 15/16 in 1984. The observations were performed over the course of three months near superior conjunction at solar offset distances R approximately 6-80 R(solar mass). The main results from the subsequent analysis of these data are: (1) velocities vary between 250 and 380 km s(exp -1) for R greater than 20 R(solar mass), agreeing with similar measurements using natural sources (IPS); (2) velocities derived from two-station phase fluctuation observations varv between 70 and 120 km s(exp -1) for R less than 12 R(solar mass), i.e. values substantially lower than those derived from conventional IPS data; and (3) it is suggested that the different velocity profiles derived from the two data sets at small R may be due to the effects of magnetosonic and Alfvenic waves on radio wave scattering. Further analysis of additional radio sounding data should help resolve the apparent discrepancy.

Efimov, A. I.↗

DOE OSTI2015

A stochastic perturbation method to generate inflow turbulence in large-eddy simulation models: Application to neutrally stratified atmospheric boundary layers

Despite the variety of existing methods, efficient generation of turbulent inflow conditions for large-eddy simulation (LES) models remains a challenging and active research area. Herein, we extend our previous research on the cell perturbation method, which uses a novel stochastic approach based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field applied within a region near the inflow boundaries of the LES domain [Muñoz-Esparza et al., “Bridging the transition from mesoscale to microscale turbulence in numerical weather prediction models,” Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 153, 409–440 (2014)]. The objective was twofold: (i) to identify the governing parameters of the method and their optimum values and (ii) to generalize the results over a broad range of atmospheric large-scale forcing conditions, U{sub g} = 5 − 25 m s{sup −1}, where U{sub g} is the geostrophic wind. We identified the perturbation Eckert number, Ec=U{sub g}{sup 2}/ρc{sub p}θ{sup ~}{sub pm}, to be the parameter governing the flow transition to turbulence in neutrally stratified boundary layers. Here, θ{sup ~}{sub pm} is the maximum perturbation amplitude applied, c{sub p} is the specific heat capacity at constant pressure, and ρ is the density. The optimal Eckert number was found for nonlinear perturbations allowed by Ec ≈ 0.16, which instigate formation of hairpin-like vortices that most rapidly transition to a developed turbulent state. Larger Ec numbers (linear small-amplitude perturbations) result in streaky structures requiring larger fetches to reach the quasi-equilibrium solution, while smaller Ec numbers lead to buoyancy dominated perturbations exhibiting difficulties for hairpin-like vortices to emerge. Cell perturbations with wavelengths within the inertial range of three-dimensional turbulence achieved identical quasi-equilibrium values of resolved turbulent kinetic energy, q, and Reynolds-shear stress, . In contrast, large-scale perturbations acting at the production range exhibited reduced levels of , due to the formation of coherent streamwise structures, while q was maintained, requiring larger fetches for the turbulent solution to stabilize. Additionally, the cell perturbation method was compared to a synthetic turbulence generator. The proposed stochastic approach provided at least the same efficiency in developing realistic turbulence, while accelerating the formation of large-scales associated with production of turbulent kinetic energy. Also, it is computationally inexpensive and does not require any turbulent information.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Adaptive Sparse-Grid Stochastic Collocation Uncertainty Quantification Convergence for Multigroup Diffusion

Advanced methods in uncertainty quantification for numerical models in computational physics continue to gain acceptance in nuclear modeling. Previously, the efficiency of sparse-grid stochastic collocation in comparison with Monte Carlo for uncertainty quantification through convergence studies was demonstrated. An adaptive method for anisotropic sparse grid collocation and its convergence compared to previous efforts is considered. The physical system in consideration is a two-dimensional quarter-core reactor, consisting of 5 materials distributed in 121 regions. The two-group neutron diffusion criticality approximation is solved. Vacuum boundaries are applied on the top and right, and reflecting boundaries on the bottom and left. The material cross sections, neutron multiplication factors, and diffusion coefficients are potential sources of uncertainty. Uniformly-distributed uncertainty within 5% of the reference values is introduced for material properties. The distribution of the uncertain parameters make up the uncertainty space Γ included in R{sup N}, where N is the number of uncertain parameters. The input parameter uncertainties are independently distributed. As expected, the convergence of Monte Carlo on the benchmark as a function of computational solves is nearly linear and lethargic compared to the other methods. The static isotropic index set, in which each input dimension is treated with equal importance, converges much more efficiently than Monte Carlo, but lacks the benefit of emphasizing some dimensions over others. The anisotropic case is most efficient, where first-order sensitivity information was used to determine anisotropic weights for polynomials to use in the polynomial chaos expansion. Interestingly, the adaptive algorithm converges slightly less efficiently than the anisotropic case, while still performing better than the isotropic case. Because the adaptive case has to determine the importance of each input dimension, it occasionally predicts inaccurately and wastes computation solves compared to the more ideal anisotropic case. However, in circumstances when an ideal anisotropy is not understood a priori, the adaptive algorithm may be optimally efficient in representing the original model. Given the potential loss of efficiency when using a poorly-chosen anisotropic weighting, the adaptive algorithm may be an effective choice for initial uncertainty quantification in problems with a low-dimensionality input space. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗