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IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗

CareWELL: Multimodal Region Representation Learning with Spatial Contexts for Urban Health

Rapid urbanization affects living environments by intensifying exposure to air pollution, heat, noise, and urban dynamics, which together contribute to uneven health outcomes across neighborhoods. For instance, cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental health conditions are each influenced by distinct exposures such as air pollution, extreme temperatures, or limited access to green space. These heterogeneous patterns require understanding the characteristics of geographic regions in order to explain why urban health risks vary across urban areas. Recent work in self-supervised region representation learning provides a promising way to model such characteristics from multimodal geospatial data. However, existing methods face two major limitations: (i) they often depend on non-public datasets, limiting reproducibility and applicability, and (ii) their generic pretraining objectives overlook health-relevant determinants, including temporal variability in environmental exposures and inequalities in social conditions. To address these gaps, we propose Context-Aware Region rEpresentation with Weather, Environment, and Location Learning (CareWELL). CareWELL leverages large language models to encode seasonal variability in weather, employs contrastive learning to align geo-coordinate and weather representations, and introduces a context-aware objective that integrates socio-demographic factors while preserving spatial correlations. We evaluate CareWELL by predicting six urban health outcomes in Manhattan, New York City, and demonstrate that CareWELL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines as well as a traditional spatial computing method. These results suggest the importance of context-aware pretraining objectives for learning health-relevant region representations.

Namgung, Min [ORNL]↗

Automatic translation of MPI source into a latency-tolerant, data-driven form

Hiding communication behind useful computation is an important performance programming technique but remains an inscrutable programming exercise even for the expert. We present Bamboo, a code transformation framework that can realize communication overlap in applications written in MPI without the need to intrusively modify the source code. Bamboo reformulates MPI source into the form of a task dependency graph that expresses a partial ordering among tasks, enabling the program to execute in a data-driven fashion under the control of an external runtime system. Experimental results demonstrate that Bamboo significantly reduces communication delays while requiring only modest amounts of programmer annotation for a variety of applications and platforms, including those employing co-processors and accelerators. Moreover, Bamboo's performance meets or exceeds that of labor-intensive hand coding. The translator is more than a means of hiding communication costs automatically; it demonstrates the utility of semantic level optimization against a wellknown library.

Communication-computation↗

Land Surface Temperature from GOES-East and GOES-West

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important climate parameter that controls the surface energy budget. For climate applications, information is needed at the global scale with representation of the diurnal cycle. To achieve global coverage there is a need to merge about five independent geostationary (GEO) satellites that have different observing capabilities. An issue of practical importance is the merging of independent satellite observations in areas of overlap. An optimal approach in such areas could eliminate the need for redundant computations by differently viewing satellites. We use a previously developed approach to derive information on LST from GOES-East (GOES-E), modify it for application to GOES-West (GOES-W) and implement it simultaneously across areas of overlap at 5-km spatial resolution. We evaluate the GOES-based LST against in situ observations and an independent MODIS product for the period of 2004–09. The methodology proposed minimizes differences between satellites in areas of overlap. The mean and median values of the differences in monthly mean LST retrieved from GOES-E and GOES-W at 0600 UTC for July are 0.01 and 0.11 K, respectively. Similarly, at 1800 UTC the respective mean and median value of the differences were 0.15 and 1.33 K. These findings can provide guidelines for potential users to decide whether the reported accuracy based on one satellite alone, meets their needs in area of overlap. Since the 6 yr record of LST was produced at hourly time scale, the data are well suited to address scientific issues that require the representation of LST diurnal cycle or the diurnal temperature range (DTR).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Visual Atlas on Strategic Trade

Strategic trade concerns global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that can have both military and civil uses. Many countries require licenses for trade in strategic items as a measure of non-proliferation. For example, items listed for trade control by multilateral export control arrangements, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), typically are considered strategic goods. Analysts and officials involved in strategic trade control often lack quantitative global understanding of relevant trade patterns that would help them focus control and enforcement efforts, select companies for outreach and audit, target transactions for verification and inspection, and assess the potential economic impact of trade control policies. Many are unaware of available open source data on international trade that can inform these issues. Many do not know how to make use of such data or lack the tools necessary to do so. A book of charts dubbed a ‘Strategic Trade Atlas’ was developed to illustrate global trade flows of strategic goods and raise awareness of the availability and utility of open source trade data. The Atlas was prepared for the World Customs Organization (WCO) and its Member States to support their planning and execution of Strategic Trade Control Enforcement (STCE) operations. It offers macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the WCO with commodities described in its STCE Implementation Guide. While these HS codes are understood to also encompass many non-strategic items, they nevertheless provide a good overview of potentially strategic trade flows. These include HS codes covering nuclear and nuclear-related commodities listed by the NSG, such as uranium, heavy water, graphite, carbon fiber, nickel powder, beryllium, aluminum tubes, vacuum pumps, valves, machine tools, cameras, and many others. The Atlas uses trade data from the Base pour l’Analyse du Commerce International (BACI), a statistical elaboration of public UN Comtrade data. BACI data reconciles trade flows, taking into account asymmetries in import and export trade valuation. The data visualization approach facilitates rapid sense making, pattern recognition, and anomaly detection. Country-based profiles summarize vast amounts of data into readily understandable graphical representations of each country’s primary strategic imports and exports and their main trading partners. Commodity-based profiles provide a global view of major exporters, importers, and trade patterns for each commodity. These insights can inform the risk management approach employed by customs to allocate enforcement and compliance efforts.

customs controls↗

Machine Learning Models of Plastic Flow Based on Representation Theory

We use machine learning (ML) to infer stress and plastic flow rules using data from representative polycrystalline simulations. In particular, we use so-called deep (multilayer) neural networks (NN) to represent the two response functions. The ML process does not choose appropriate inputs or outputs, rather it is trained on selected inputs and output. Likewise, its discrimination of features is crucially connected to the chosen input-output map. Furthermore, we draw upon classical constitutive modeling to select inputs and enforce well-accepted symmetries and other properties. With these developments, we enable rapid model building in real-time with experiments, and guide data collection and feature discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating multimodal data through interpretable heterogeneous ensembles

Motivation: Integrating multimodal data represents an effective approach to predicting biomedical characteristics, such as protein functions and disease outcomes. However, existing data integration approaches do not sufficiently address the heterogeneous semantics of multimodal data. In particular, early and intermediate approaches that rely on a uniform integrated representation reinforce the consensus among the modalities but may lose exclusive local information. The alternative late integration approach that can address this challenge has not been systematically studied for biomedical problems. Results: We propose Ensemble Integration (EI) as a novel systematic implementation of the late integration approach. EI infers local predictive models from the individual data modalities using appropriate algorithms and uses heterogeneous ensemble algorithms to integrate these local models into a global predictive model. We also propose a novel interpretation method for EI models. We tested EI on the problems of predicting protein function from multimodal STRING data and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from multimodal data in electronic health records. We found that EI accomplished its goal of producing significantly more accurate predictions than each individual modality. It also performed better than several established early integration methods for each of these problems. The interpretation of a representative EI model for COVID-19 mortality prediction identified several disease-relevant features, such as laboratory test (blood urea nitrogen and calcium) and vital sign measurements (minimum oxygen saturation) and demographics (age). These results demonstrated the effectiveness of the EI framework for biomedical data integration and predictive modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Live Aircraft Encounter Visualization at FutureFlight Central

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have developed an aircraft data streaming capability that can be used to visualize live aircraft in near real-time. During a joint Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/NASA Airborne Collision Avoidance System flight series, test sorties between unmanned aircraft and manned intruder aircraft were shown in real-time at NASA Ames' FutureFlight Central tower facility as a virtual representation of the encounter. This capability leveraged existing live surveillance, video, and audio data streams distributed through a Live, Virtual, Constructive test environment, then depicted the encounter from the point of view of any aircraft in the system showing the proximity of the other aircraft. For the demonstration, position report data were sent to the ground from on-board sensors on the unmanned aircraft. The point of view can be change dynamically, allowing encounters from all angles to be observed. Visualizing the encounters in real-time provides a safe and effective method for observation of live flight testing and a strong alternative to travel to the remote test range.

Video Streaming↗

Two-pion contribution to hadronic vacuum polarization

We present a detailed analysis of e + e - → π + π - data up to \( \sqrt{s}=1 \) GeV in the framework of dispersion relations. Starting from a family of ππ P -wave phase shifts, as derived from a previous Roy-equation analysis of ππ scattering, we write down an extended Omnès representation of the pion vector form factor in terms of a few free parameters and study to which extent the modern high-statistics data sets can be described by the resulting fit function that follows from general principles of QCD. We find that statistically acceptable fits do become possible as soon as potential uncertainties in the energy calibration are taken into account, providing a strong cross check on the internal consistency of the data sets, but preferring a mass of the ω meson significantly lower than the current PDG average. In addition to a complete treatment of statistical and systematic errors propagated from the data, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the systematic errors in the dispersive representation and derive the consequences for the two-pion contribution to hadronic vacuum polarization. In a global fit to both time- and space-like data sets we find a ππ μ | ≤ 1 GeV = 495.0(1.5)(2.1) × 10 -10 and a ππ μ | ≤ 0.63 GeV = 132.8(0.4)(1.0) × 10 -10 . While the constraints are thus most stringent for low energies, we obtain uncertainty estimates throughout the whole energy range that should prove valuable in corroborating the corresponding contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. As side products, we obtain improved constraints on the ππ P -wave, valuable input for future global analyses of low-energy ππ scattering, as well as a determination of the pion charge radius, $\langle$$r^{2}_{π}$$\rangle$ = 0 . 429(1)(4) fm 2 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Improving the Representation of Land in Climate Models by Application of EOS Observations

The PI's IDS current and previous investigation has focused on the applications of the land data toward the improvement of climate models. The previous IDS research identified the key factors limiting the accuracy of climate models to be the representation of albedos, land cover, fraction of landscape covered by vegetation, roughness lengths, surface skin temperature and canopy properties such as leaf area index (LAI) and average stomatal conductance. Therefore, we assembled a team uniquely situated to focus on these key variables and incorporate the remotely sensed measures of these variables into the next generation of climate models.

Source record↗

An algorithm for the weighting matrices in the sampled-data optimal linear regulator problem

The sampled-data optimal linear regulator problem provides a means whereby a control designer can use an understanding of continuous optimal regulator design to produce a digital state variable feedback control law which satisfies continuous system performance specifications. A basic difficulty in applying the sampled-data regulator theory is the requirement that certain digital performance index weighting matrices, expressed as complicated functions of system matrices, be computed. Infinite series representations are presented for the weighting matrices of the time-invariant version of the optimal linear sampled-data regulator problem. Error bounds are given for estimating the effect of truncating the series expressions after a finite number of terms, and a method is described for their computer implementation. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results.

Armstrong, E. S.↗

Towards Accurate Prediction of Turbulent, Three-Dimensional, Recirculating Flows with the NCC

The National Combustion Code (NCC) was used to calculate the steady state, nonreacting flow field of a prototype Lean Direct Injection (LDI) swirler. This configuration used nine groups of eight holes drilled at a thirty-five degree angle to induce swirl. These nine groups created swirl in the same direction, or a corotating pattern. The static pressure drop across the holes was fixed at approximately four percent. Computations were performed on one quarter of the geometry, because the geometry is considered rotationally periodic every ninety degrees. The final computational grid used was approximately 2.26 million tetrahedral cells, and a cubic nonlinear k - epsilon model was used to model turbulence. The NCC results were then compared to time averaged Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) data. The LDV measurements were performed on the full geometry, but four ninths of the geometry was measured. One-, two-, and three-dimensional representations of both flow fields are presented. The NCC computations compare both qualitatively and quantitatively well to the LDV data, but differences exist downstream. The comparison is encouraging, and shows that NCC can be used for future injector design studies. To improve the flow prediction accuracy of turbulent, three-dimensional, recirculating flow fields with the NCC, recommendations are given.

Iannetti, A.↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The 3-D world modeling with updating capability based on combinatorial geometry

A 3-D world modeling technique using range data is discribed. Range data quantify the distances from the sensor focal plane to the object surface, i.e., the 3-D coordinates of discrete points on the object surface are known. The approach proposed herein for 3-D world modeling is based on the Combinatorial Geometry (CG) method which is widely used in Monte Carlo particle transport calculations. First, each measured point on the object surface is surrounded by a small sphere with a radius determined by the range to that point. Then, the 3-D shapes of the visible surfaces are obtained by taking the (Boolean) union of all the spheres. The result is an unambiguous representation of the object's boundary surfaces. The pre-learned partial knowledge of the environment can be also represented using the CG Method with a relatively small amount of data. Using the CG type of representation, distances in desired directions to boundary surfaces of various objects are efficiently calculated. This feature is particularly useful for continuously verifying the world model against the data provided by a range finder, and for integrating range data from successive locations of the robot during motion. The efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated by simulations of a spherical robot in a 3-D room in the presence of moving obstacles and inadequate prelearned partial knowledge of the environment.

Goldstein, M.↗

The Evolution of the Stratopause during the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

C.A.D. representation of ternary and quaternary phase diagrams

This work is concerned with the utilization of C.A.D. solid-modeling software for the computer representation of three-dimensional phase diagrams. The work was undertaken in two parts. First, the C.A.D. software (I-DEAS, by Structural Dynamics Research Corp.) was integrated with a variety of auxiliary Fortran 77 and I-DEAS language programs which were written specifically for the purpose of phase diagram representation. The capabilities of the resulting suite of software for three-dimensional phase diagram representation were developed and illustrated by the construction, display and manipulation of solid-model phase diagrams for a hypothetical quaternary eutectic system. The results of this work are discussed in some detail in the attached publication ('Solid-modeling: a C.A.D. Alternative for Three-dimensional Phase Diagram Representation'). Such a technique is of general applicability, having utility in both research and education. Secondly, using the C.A.D. technique, data from the literature (gleaned from some 70 separate publications), which represent experimentally determined phase boundaries, were combined to form solid-model representations of the CMS2-M2S-S ternary space diagram and the CMS2-CAS2-M2S-S quaternary liquidus projection (where C=CaO, M=MgO, A=Al2O3, and S=SiO2). These diagrams were utilized in a concurrent study of solidification in the CMAS system.

Delao, James D.↗