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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2005

CFD Multiphysics Tool

The recent bold initiatives to expand the human presence in space require innovative approaches to the design of propulsion systems whose underlying technology is not yet mature. The space propulsion community has identified a number of candidate concepts. A short list includes solar sails, high-energy-density chemical propellants, electric and electromagnetic accelerators, solar-thermal and nuclear-thermal expanders. For each of these, the underlying physics are relatively well understood. One could easily cite authoritative texts, addressing both the governing equations, and practical solution methods for, e.g. electromagnetic fields, heat transfer, radiation, thermophysics, structural dynamics, particulate kinematics, nuclear energy, power conversion, and fluid dynamics. One could also easily cite scholarly works in which complete equation sets for any one of these physical processes have been accurately solved relative to complex engineered systems. The Advanced Concepts and Analysis Office (ACAO), Space Transportation Directorate, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, has recently released the first alpha version of a set of computer utilities for performing the applicable physical analyses relative to candidate deep-space propulsion systems such as those listed above. PARSEC, Preliminary Analysis of Revolutionary in-Space Engineering Concepts, enables rapid iterative calculations using several physics tools developed in-house. A complete cycle of the entire tool set takes about twenty minutes. PARSEC is a level-zero/level-one design tool. For PARSEC s proof-of-concept, and preliminary design decision-making, assumptions that significantly simplify the governing equation sets are necessary. To proceed to level-two, one wishes to retain modeling of the underlying physics as close as practical to known applicable first principles. This report describes results of collaboration between ACAO, and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), to begin building a set of level-two design tools for PARSEC. The "CFD Multiphysics Tool" will be the propulsive element of the tool set. The name acknowledges that space propulsion performance assessment is primarily a fluid mechanics problem. At the core of the CFD Multiphysics Tool is an open-source CFD code, HYP, under development at ERAU. ERAU is renowned for its undergraduate degree program in Aerospace Engineering the largest in the nation. The strength of the program is its applications-oriented curriculum, which culminates in one of three two-course Engineering Design sequences: Aerospace Propulsion, Spacecraft, or Aircraft. This same philosophy applies to the HYP Project, albeit with fluid physics modeling commensurate with graduate research. HYP s purpose, like the Multiphysics Tool s, is to enable calculations of real (three-dimensional; geometrically complex; intended for hardware development) applications of high speed and propulsive fluid flows.

Perrell, Eric R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aviary: An Open-Source Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool for Modeling Aircraft With Analytic Gradients

Demands on aircraft design methods in recent years have begun to require increasingly higher amounts of coupling between disciplines and have also begun to require optimization in order to satisfy competing objectives involving large numbers of parameters that define unconventional configurations. These expanding requirements have amplified a need for new and improved aircraft design, analysis, and optimization codes that are capable of performing coupled design exploiting analytic gradients where possible. Aviary is a multidisciplinary design optimization and analysis framework which allows for tightly coupled simultaneous aircraft and subsystem design using analytic gradients. Aviary has employed the methods of two legacy aircraft analysis tools to provide native analytically differentiated calculations for five different disciplines, and it also has the ability to couple in external discipline analysis tools, whether or not those tools can provide analytic gradients. Preliminary examples and modeling efforts have shown Aviary’s ability to effectively model novel concepts and explore large and non-intuitive design spaces. Finally, a multi-level user interface in Aviary creates an easy entry point for users with any level of multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization experience.

multidisciplinary↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smoothing tool design and performance during subaperture glass polishing

During subaperture tool grinding and polishing, overlaps of the tool influence function can result in undesirable mid-spatial frequency (MSF) errors in the form of surface ripples, which are often corrected using a smoothing polishing step. Here, in this study, flat multi-layer smoothing polishing tools are designed and tested to simultaneously (1) reduce or remove MSF errors, (2) minimize surface figure degradation, and (3) maximize the material removal rate. A time-dependent convergence model in which spatial material removal varies with a workpiece-tool height mismatch, combined with a finite element mechanical analysis to determine the interface contact pressure distribution, was developed to evaluate various smoothing tool designs as a function of tool material properties, thicknesses, pad textures, and displacements. An improvement in smoothing tool performance is achieved when the gap pressure constant, $\overline{h}$ (which describes the inverse rate at which the pressure drops with a workpiece-tool height mismatch), is minimized for smaller spatial scale length surface features (namely, MSF errors) and maximized for large spatial scale length features (i.e., surface figure). Five specific smoothing tool designs were experimentally evaluated. A two-layer smoothing tool using a thin, grooved IC1000 polyurethane pad (with a high elastic modulus, E pad =360 MPa ), thicker blue foam (with an intermediate modulus, E foam =5.3 MPa ) underlayer, and an optimized displacement (d t =1 mm ) provided the best overall performance (namely, high MSF error convergence, minimal surface figure degradation, and high material removal rate).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

$Z$-Pinch Interferometry Analysis With the Fourier-Based TNT Code

Here, we present the analysis of interferometry diagnostics with the user-friendly Talbot Numerical Tool (TNT), a Fourier-based postprocessing code that enables real-time assessment of plasma systems. TNT performance was explored with visible and infrared interferometry in pulsed-power-driven Z -pinch configurations to expand its capabilities beyond Talbot X-ray interferometry in the high-intensity laser environment. TNT enabled accurate electron density characterization of magnetically driven plasma flows and shocks through phase-retrieval methods that did not require data modification or masking. TNT demonstrated enhanced resolution, detecting below 4 % fringe shift, which corresponds to 8.7 × 10 15 cm –2 within 28 μ m, approaching the laser probing system limit. TNT was tested against a well-known interferometry analysis software, delivering an average resolving power nearly ten times better (~28 μ m versus ~ 210 μ m) when resolving plasma ablation features. TNT demonstrated higher sensitivity when probing sharp electron density gradients in supersonic shocks. A maximum electron areal density of 4.1 × 10 17 cm –2 was measured in the shocked plasma region, and a minimum electron density detection of ~ 1.0 × 10 15 cm –2 was achieved. When probing colliding plasma flows, the calculations of the effective adiabatic index and the associated errors were improved from γ* = 2.6 ± 1.6 – 1.4 ± 0.2 with TNT postprocessing, contributing valuable data for the interpretation of radiative transport. Additional applications of TNT in the characterization of pulsed-power plasmas and beyond are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

FIESTA ROC: A new finite element analysis program for solar cell simulation

The Finite Element Semiconductor Three-dimensional Analyzer by Ralph O. Clark (FIESTA ROC) is a computational tool for investigating in detail the performance of arbitrary solar cell structures. As its name indicates, it uses the finite element technique to solve the fundamental semiconductor equations in the cell. It may be used for predicting the performance (thereby dictating the design parameters) of a proposed cell or for investigating the limiting factors in an established design.

Clark, Ralph O.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Phase Two Feasibility Study for Software Safety Requirements Analysis Using Model Checking

A feasibility study was performed on a representative aerospace system to determine the following: (1) the benefits and limitations to using SCADE , a commercially available tool for model checking, in comparison to using a proprietary tool that was studied previously [1] and (2) metrics for performing the model checking and for assessing the findings. This study was performed independently of the development task by a group unfamiliar with the system, providing a fresh, external perspective free from development bias.

Turgeon, Gregory↗

DOE OSTI2015

Building a Cyberinfrastructure for Environmental System Science: Modeling Frameworks, Data Management, and Scientific Workflows, Workshop Report, Potomac, Maryland, April 30-May 1, 2015

The Environmental System Science (ESS) activity within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) seeks to advance a robust, predictive understanding of terrestrial environments, extending from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy and from molecular to global scales, through an iterative cycle of model-driven experimentation and observation dubbed MODEX. Considerable progress has been made toward achieving this overarching goal, but widely recognized is the fragmentation across projects and disciplines of the relevant modeling and simulation capabilities, observational and experimental data, analysis algorithms, and workflow tools. This fragmentation creates significant challenges for studying impacts and feedbacks in these complex multiscale systems. These challenges are further exacerbated by ongoing disruptive changes in high-performance computational architectures and the exponential growth in the types and volume of data that render obsolete the conventional approaches to software development and data management. Overcoming these challenges will require the development of a BER Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD)–wide enabling cyberinfrastructure to support data management, cross-domain modeling, data analysis, and collaborative research. To explore the potential for working groups to initiate and guide a more integrated and community-based cyberinfrastructure, BER held the ESS Workshop on Model-Data Integration: Modeling Frameworks, Data Management, and Scientific Workflows on April 30-May 1, 2015, following the ESS Principal Investigator Meeting in Potomac, Maryland. Participants included model developers, software engineers, and data management specialists from eight national laboratories, which represented a wide range of projects and programs from CESD as well as cross-cutting projects from DOE’s Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR; both BER and ASCR are operated from within DOE’s Office of Science). A series of plenary talks provided background information and clarified the workshop’s three objectives: (1) develop requirements for this community-based cyberinfrastructure to ensure enhanced scientific productivity of the community as a whole; (2) identify challenges associated with developing this new cyberinfrastructure using a phased approach guided by project-driven use cases; and, given these requirements and challenges, (3) chart a path forward for ESS working groups to lead the phased development of the new cyberinfrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Feasibility analysis of a Commercial HPWH with CO 2 Refrigerant

A scoping-level analysis has conducted to establish the feasibility of using CO 2 as refrigerant for a commercial heat pump water heater (HPWH) for U.S. applications. The DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM) modeling tool was used for the assessment with data from a Japanese heat pump water heater (Sanden) using CO 2 as refrigerant for calibration. A CFD modeling tool was used to further refine the HPDM tank model. After calibration, the model was used to simulate the performance of commercial HPWHs using CO 2 and R-134a (baseline). The parametric analysis concluded that compressor discharge pressure and water temperature stratification are critical parameters for the system. For comparable performance the compressor size and water-heater size can be significantly different for R-134 and CO 2 HPWHs. The proposed design deploying a gas-cooler configuration not only exceeds the Energy Star Energy Factor criteria i.e. 2.20, but is also comparable to some of the most efficient products in the market using conventional refrigerants.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1995

Advanced Transportation System Studies Technical Area 2 (TA-2) Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Development Contract: Technical Results - Volume 2

The purpose of the Advanced Transportation System Studies (ATSS) Technical Area 2 (TA-2) Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle Development contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. This document is Volume 2 of the final report for the contract. It provides documentation of selected technical results from various TA-2 analysis activities, including a detailed narrative description of the SSTO concept assessment results, a user's guide for the associated SSTO sizing tools, an SSTO turnaround assessment report, an executive summary of the ground operations assessments performed during the first year of the contract, a configuration-independent vehicle health management system requirements report, a copy of all major TA-2 contract presentations, a copy of the FLO launch vehicle final report, and references to Pratt & Whitney's TA-2 sponsored final reports regarding the identification of Russian main propulsion technologies.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Smith, Brett A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Signature for Isolated Nozzle Configurations

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis has been performed to study the plume effects on sonic boom signature for isolated nozzle configurations. The objectives of these analyses were to provide comparison to past work using modern CFD analysis tools, to investigate the differences of high aspect ratio nozzles to circular (axisymmetric) nozzles, and to report the effects of underexpanded nozzle operation on boom signature. CFD analysis was used to address the plume effects on sonic boom signature from a baseline exhaust nozzle. Near-field pressure signatures were collected for nozzle pressure ratios (NPRs) between 6 and 10. A computer code was used to extrapolate these signatures to a ground-observed sonic boom N-wave. Trends show that there is a reduction in sonic boom N-wave signature as NPR is increased from 6 to 10. The performance curve for this supersonic nozzle is flat, so there is not a significant loss in thrust coefficient as the NPR is increased. As a result, this benefit could be realized without significant loss of performance. Analyses were also collected for a high aspect ratio nozzle based on the baseline design for comparison. Pressure signatures were collected for nozzle pressure ratios from 8 to 12. Signatures were nearly twice as strong for the two-dimensional case, and trends also show a reduction in sonic boom signature as NPR is increased from 8 to 12. As low boom designs are developed and improved, there will be a need for understanding the interaction between the aircraft boat tail shocks and the exhaust nozzle plume. These CFD analyses will provide a baseline study for future analysis efforts.

Castner, Raymond S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Signature for Isolated Nozzle Configurations

Castner, Raymond S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beyond Fair: Engagement, Data Usability, and Open Community Productivity through the NASA Open Science Data Repository

The FAIR principle (findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) governs the storage and sharing of NASA space biology and health data[1]. These guiding principles maximize reuse of data and the reproducibility of scientific findings. The NASA Open Science Data Repository (OSDR; an expansion of NASA GeneLab) was built on the FAIR principles and houses over 500 studies and close to 1000 datasets from decades of space life sciences experiments. OSDR embodies the FAIR principles through data governance that includes mediated, embargoed, and fully open access data. The FAIR data governance principles were recently proposed to be expanded to encompass a FAIREST framework for assessing research data repositories (FAIR + Engagement, Social connections, and Trust)[2]. FAIREST emphasizes the importance of data repositories engaging with the scientific community and gaining the trust of researchers regarding data quality. Trust also refers to the TRUST principles developed for assessment of digital repositories: Transparency, Responsibility, User Focus, Sustainability, Technology[3]. We present the “Open Science for Life in Space” Analysis Working Groups (AWGs) as evidence regarding the power of engagement, social connections, and trust which has enhanced OSDR’s capabilities and productivity. AWG members engage in two main activities. One, members provide feedback on OSDR scientific standards for data ingestion, curation, and reuse (study, subject and assay metadata; processing pipelines; dataset formats and uniformed structures for machine-readability). Two, AWG members collaborate to mine-reuse OSDR data to conduct scientific analysis. With nearly 800 active members, the AWGs have resulted in 32 publications re-using OSDR data and contributed many papers in two major special issues in Cell (2020) and Nature (2024). AWGs also serve as networking groups, facilitate social connections between researchers at all levels of experience, and also have a social online ‘Forum’ used to keep members informed on projects and opportunities. This community-centric, productive, and trustworthy data culture has resulted in a broader effect with international space agencies, academics, and the commercial space sector wanting to submit their data to OSDR. Ten studies of Inspiration 4 data were recently publicly released by OSDR, as were some JAXA human data. Coming up soon in OSDR are data submissions from the European Space Agency, Virgin Galactic PIs, and SpaceX Polaris Dawn. A major benefit of OSDR is the array of standardized and uniformly formatted data (which was developed through AWG member consensus), from which visualization tools, analysis tools, and machine learning models can be built or trained. This talk will cover the Multi-Study Visualization Tool, the Environmental Data Application, RadLab, and a UCSF-NSF funded knowledge graph biomedical health discovery tool ‘SPOKE’ currently being integrated with OSDR. OSDR also provides training programs in bioinformatics and machine learning to improve the scientific community’s awareness of data availability and to boost their ability to perform data analysis. The increasing engagement of the scientific community and the public with technologies powered by artificial intelligence (AI) heightens the need for data analysis to be transparent. The AI for Life in Space initiative leverages the data products provided in OSDR to train AI models, with an emphasis on explainable and trustworthy AI, which would not be possible without FAIR data and metadata. Overall, here we will demonstrate the importance for NASA life sciences data repositories to adhere to the FAIREST framework, by providing examples and success stories from different aspects of OSDR.

data↗

DOE OSTI2015

Effect of moisture content and distribution on radiation transport in concrete - 14426

Criticality Emergency Planning (CEP) requires a detailed knowledge of the Facility design and construction in order to undertake radiation transport studies in support of criticality consequence calculations. Such calculations are used at AWE to determine mitigated doses, CEP exclusion zones and in support of Criticality Warning Systems (CWS) detector head placement studies. At AWE, such calculations have traditionally been performed by assuming that structural concrete has a fixed and evenly distributed moisture profile. In order to validate this assumption, work has been undertaken using the finite element analysis tool Femmasse to simulate moisture movement within the concrete and calculate moisture distributions in a 65 cm thick concrete wall as a function of aging and specific environmental conditions. This work identified that considerable variation in the moisture profile may arise, with an equilibrium condition being reached after circa 20 years, where the overall moisture content is reduced to a minimum. Furthermore, the calculations identified that the overall moisture content used in extant CEP assessments was considerably lower than that estimated in this work. In order to determine the effect of the moisture distribution profiles, the Monte Carlo transport code MCNP5 was used to study the transmission of radiation through aged concrete and thus assess its performance as a radiation shield in the event of a criticality. Various moisture distributions were assessed based on the findings of the Femmasse calculations and were compared with that assessed using traditional assumptions. Results were obtained for neutron and photon doses. The paper provides an overview of the findings and makes recommendations on the suitability of using evenly distributed moisture profiles in concrete in support of mitigated doses, CEP and CWS detector head placement studies. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Search for Electron Neutrinos in Multiple Topologies with the MicroBooNE Experiment

This note presents the status of the measurement of electron neutrinos from the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beamline (BNB) with the MicroBooNE experiment. The analysis is aimed at investigating the nature of the low energy excess of electromagnetic activity observed by the MiniBooNE experiment. The $ν_e$ event selection relies on topological and calorimetric information to characterise particles produced in these interactions, leveraging the Pandora multi-algorithm reconstruction framework as well as custom particle identification and pattern recognition tools. Results presented in this note use 5.88 × 10 20 protons on target of data collected between 2015 and 2018. These include the performance of particle identification tools for $\mu/p$ and $e/\gamma$ separation, along with electromagnetic shower calibration with the largest sample of $\pi^0$ events measured on argon. Progress towards the completion of this analysis is shown through the measurement of high-energy charged-current $ν_e$ interactions and their kinematic distributions using both inclusive (1eX) and exclusive (1$e$0$p$0$\pi$ and 1$e$N$p$0$\pi$) channels. Measurements of charged-current $ν_µ$ interactions aimed at constraining flux and cross-section systematic uncertainties are also shown. We present the analysis’ preliminary sensitivity of an electron-like signal hypothesis to the MiniBooNE excess which includes flux, cross-section, and detector systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Solid of Revolution Time Study using COG11.1 and MCNP6.1

The performance of two continuous energy Monte Carlo transport codes, COG11.1 and MCNP6.1, has been compared for the {sup 239}Pu Jezebel Benchmark using cross sections based on the ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library. The purpose of this study is to determine the length of time it takes each code to complete a series of criticality calculations, using two different methods to model a solid of revolution. A solid of revolution is essential in many fields of engineering and mathematics, and has been a standard feature in computer-aided design and manufacturing since the 1970's. In the field of criticality safety, a solid of revolution can be used to reproduce and simplify complex engineering drawings and systems that would otherwise require excessive use of geometric primitives and computational resources to achieve a comparable level of fidelity. There are two basic methods to model a solid of revolution: Method 1 (COG) specifies a set of x-y pairs or polar coordinates and rotate the curve about the x-axis. Method 2 (COG and MCNP) creates a set of end-to-end conical frustums and/or cylinders. Method 1 is only available in COG and can be implemented using one surface and sector specification. Method 2 can be implemented in both COG and MCNP. This time study was initially conceived as a result of criticality safety analysis performed for a complex system with a high degree of rotational symmetry. Each COG input deck typically took 1-2 days to run in serial mode. COG input decks were then converted to MCNP format and run on the same computer cluster. Instead of expected 1-2 day runtimes, it took MCNP6.1 more than one week to complete each run. Since MCNP typically runs faster than many codes, these lengthy runtimes were considered unusual. This study attempts to investigate the runtime discrepancy between the two codes. The methods and benchmark in this time study were selected to provide a consistent, generalized approach to modeling an arbitrary solid of revolution. While there are many different ways to model the {sup 239}Pu Jezebel Benchmark, the focus of this study is on investigating the practical difference between the two basic methods to model a surface of revolution. Throughout this study, the only code that maintains reasonably low runtimes is COG11.1 (Method 1). Based on the observed performance of each code and method, it is likely that the divergent runtimes are the result of tracking particles across planes that lie between conical frustums, as opposed to defining the object boundary as a single surface. Slight fluctuations in graphed results were also observed, due to random sampling and CPU loading. This was confirmed by re-running input decks and comparing average runtimes to a preliminary curve fit. From the perspective of a criticality safety analyst, the results of this study are expected to contribute towards understanding one of the practical trade-offs between codes and methods as they apply to real-world analysis. Ultimately, it's about choosing the right tool for the job.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Construction of a Code Verification Matrix for Heat Conduction With Finite Element Code Applications

When establishing the pedigree of a simulation tool, code verification is used to ensure that the implemented numerical algorithm is a faithful representation of its underlying mathematical model. During this process, numerical results on various meshes are systematically compared to a reference analytic solution. The selection of analytic solutions can be a laborious process, as it is difficult to establish adequate code confidence without performing redundant work. In this report we address this issue by applying a physics-based process that establishes a set of reference problems. In this process, code simulation options are categorized and systematically tested, which ensures that gaps in testing are easily identified and addressed. The resulting problems are primarily intended for code verification analysis but may also be useful for comparison to other simulation codes, troubleshooting activities, or training exercises. The process is used to select fifteen code verification problems relevant for the one-dimensional steady-state heat conduction equation. These problems are applicable to a wide variety of simulation tools, but, in this work, a demonstration is performed using the finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code BISON. Convergence to the analytic solution at the theoretical rate is quantified for a selection of the problems, which establishes a baseline pedigree for the code. Not only can this standard set of conduction solutions be used for verification of other codes, but also the physics-based process for selecting problems can be utilized to quantify and expand testing for any simulation tool.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2011

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

Watson, Leela↗