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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,531 records · Page 85
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar to observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO 2 , sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

A simulation engine: Combining an expert system with a simulation language

Expert systems were applied in a number of ways to the field of simulation. One of these is the application of an expert system to drive a simulation, by making run-time decisions which effect the simulation. This approach was successful for a number of specific simulation models. The simulation engine extends this capability by supporting this type of interaction in a general purpose setting. A general purpose simulation language is provided for building models, and an inference engine is provided for knowledge processing. This combination results in a mechanism which allows general purpose models to be simulated in concert with interactive knowledge bases.

Spiegel, James R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Effects of Realistic Impact-processed Asteroid Topology on Atmospheric Airbursts

When small asteroids (∼10–200 m) enter Earth’s atmosphere they can break up before hitting the ground, releasing a considerable amount of energy in what is known as an atmospheric airburst. To date, numerous studies have examined how an asteroid’s strength, size, shape, and entry characteristics affect the breakup process; but few have assessed the effects of heterogenous internal topologies. We present a two-step high-fidelity simulation approach, which we use to model the atmospheric breakup of asteroids with realistic impact-processed internal topologies and their associated ground effects. In the first step, we model the asteroid as it is impacted to generate an “impact-processed” topology. We then map the resulting fractures (i.e., damage field) from that simulation to the initial state of an atmospheric breakup simulation. For both phases, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code Spheral++. As a demonstrative example, we apply our new simulation pipeline to a Tunguska-scale impactor (50 m diameter, 20 km s −1 entry velocity, and 45° angle) in a case study comparing impact-processed and fully intact asteroids in both planar 2D and full 3D. For sufficiently strong asteroids, we find that impact processing generally causes the asteroid to break up at higher altitudes. We also observe that impact-processed asteroids break up into smaller fragments than objects with equivalent properties that have not been impact-processed.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Validation of Aquarius Measurements Using Radiative Transfer Models at L-Band

Aquarius/SAC-D was launched in June 2011 by NASA and CONAE (Argentine space agency). Aquarius includes three L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometers dedicated to measuring sea surface salinity. We report detailed comparisons of Aquarius measurements with radiative transfer model predictions. These comparisons were used as part ofthe initial assessment of Aquarius data. In particular, they were used successfully to estimate the radiometer calibration bias and stability. Further comparisons are being performed to assess the performance of models in the retrieval algorithm for correcting the effect of sources of geophysical "noise" (e.g. the galactic background, atmospheric attenuation and reflected signal from the Sun). Such corrections are critical in bringing the error in retrieved salinity down to the required 0.2 practical salinity unit (psu) on monthly global maps at 150 km by 150 km resolution. The forward models making up the Aquarius simulator have been very useful for preparatory studies in the years leading to Aquarius' launch. The simulator includes various components to compute effects ofthe following processes on the measured signal: 1) emission from Earth surfaces (ocean, land, ice), 2) atmospheric emission and absorption, 3) emission from the Sun, Moon and celestial Sky (directly through the antenna sidelobes or after reflection/scattering at the Earth surface), 4) Faraday rotation, and 5) convolution of the scene by the antenna gain patterns. Since the Aquarius radiometers tum-on in late July 2011, the simulator has been used to perform a first order validation of the data. This included checking the order of magnitude ofthe signal over ocean, land and ice surfaces, checking the relative amplitude of signal at different polarizations, and checking the variation with incidence angle. The comparisons were also used to assess calibration bias and monitor instruments calibration drift. The simulator is also being used in the salinity retrieval. For example, initial assessments of the salinity retrieved from Aquarius data showed degradation in accuracy at locations where glint from the galactic sky background was important. This was traced to an inaccurate correction for the Sky glint. We present comparisons of the simulator prediction to the Aquarius data in order to assess the performances of the models of various physical processes impacting the measurements, such as the effect of sea surface roughness, the impact of the celestial Sky and the Sun emission scattered at the rough ocean surface. We discuss what components of the simulator appear reliable and which ones need improvements. Improved knowledge on the radiative transfer models at L-band will not only lead to better salinity retrieved from Aquarius data, it will also allow be beneficial for SMOS or the upcoming SMAP mission.

Dinnat, E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Simulation of Deployable Composite Structures

In this paper, a multiscale simulation method for analyzing deployable composite structures is presented. Effective shell properties of the composites are obtained based on Mechanics of Structure Genome (MSG) homogenization, and then implemented into a user-subroutine UGENS for structural simulation with shell elements in Abaqus. The column bending test(CBT) of a flat thin flexure and lenticular composite boom in a simplified deployer structure are studied for demonstration. A viscoelastic material model with direct integration is adopted in this paper. The CBT simulation shows good agreement with experiments during relaxation, while errors are observed when comparing residual deformation. It is shown that this CBT model can be calibrated to CBT test results. For the lenticular boom analysis, the complete process of flattening, coiling, stowage, deployment and recovery is simulated with the viscoelastic shell model.

Finite element analysis↗
NASA NTRS2008

Experimental and Numerical Characterization of High Heat Fluxes During Transient Blackbody Calibrations

High heat fluxes are encountered in numerous applications, such as hypersonic vehicles in flight, fires, and engines, Calibration of heat flux gages may be performed in a dual cavity cylindrical blackbody resulting in a transient calibration environment. To characterize the transient heat fluxes. experiments were performed on a dual cavity cylindrical blackbody at nominal temperatures varying from 800 C to 1900 C in increments of 100 C. Based on experiments, the optimum heat flux sensor insertion location as measured from the center partition was determined. The pre-insertion steady state axial temperature profile is compared experimentally, numerically, and analytically. The effect of convection in the blackbody cavity during the insertion is calculated and found to be less than 2 per cent. Also, an empirical correlation for predicting the emissivity of the blackbody is included. Detailed transient thermal models have been developed to simulate the heat flux calibration process at two extreme fluxes. The high (1MW/sq m) and relatively low (70 kw/sq m) fluxes are reported in this article. The transient models show the effect of inserting a heat flux gage at room temperature on the thermal equilibrium of the blackbody at 1800 C and 800 C nominal temperatures, respectively. Also, heat flux sensor outputs are derived from computed sensor temperature distributions and compared to experimental results.

Abdelmessih, Amanie N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete stochastic model of point defect-dislocation interaction for simulating dislocation climb

Dislocation climb is an important high temperature process in metals plasticity, responsible for the phenomena such as creep, swelling, or hardening. Climb is defined by the ability of dislocations to leave their original glide plane by interacting with point defects. As such, dislocation climb is controlled by point defect diffusion/absorption/emission, all of which involve thermal activation. The existing thermodynamically consistent models for climb are generally formulated in a continuum framework, through the definition of effective defect fluxes and climb propensities in response to thermodynamic driving forces. However, the point-wise discrete nature of vacancies (and/or self-interstitials) confers a highly discrete nature to the climb dynamics, which is also strongly affected by elastic forces. The combination of discreteness, thermal activation, and elasticity makes this process too challenging for direct atomistic methods such as molecular dynamics. Here we develop a kinetic Monte Carlo model that captures vacancy generation and transport kinetics acting in conjuction with the evolving elastic fields provided by discrete dislocation dynamics simulations. The two models are coupled via the applied stresses and stress gradients generated by dislocation structures at vacancy locations. Our simulations reveal two surprising results. First that climb is dominated by vacancy emission even when the background vacancy concentration is much higher than the equilibrium one. And, second, that climb velocities might be much faster than otherwise believed when one uses the classical theories of climb. These effects are due to the locality of vacancy-dislocation processes, which are not captured in classical treatments that assume smooth vacancy fluxes and homogeneous concentrations. We apply the method to study elementary climb processes in body-centered cubic iron and furnish climb mobility functions to be used in parametric dislocation dynamics and/or crystal plasticity simulations. Here, we apply the technique to study non-conservative plastic bypass of spherical precipitates by edge dislocations and point out the differences between our discrete approach and existing continuum formulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Process for Comparing Dynamics of Distributed Space Systems Simulations

The paper describes a process that was developed for comparing the primary orbital dynamics behavior between space systems distributed simulations. This process is used to characterize and understand the fundamental fidelities and compatibilities of the modeling of orbital dynamics between spacecraft simulations. This is required for high-latency distributed simulations such as NASA s Integrated Mission Simulation and must be understood when reporting results from simulation executions. This paper presents 10 principal comparison tests along with their rationale and examples of the results. The Integrated Mission Simulation (IMSim) (formerly know as the Distributed Space Exploration Simulation (DSES)) is a NASA research and development project focusing on the technologies and processes that are related to the collaborative simulation of complex space systems involved in the exploration of our solar system. Currently, the NASA centers that are actively participating in the IMSim project are the Ames Research Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the Johnson Space Center (JSC), the Kennedy Space Center, the Langley Research Center and the Marshall Space Flight Center. In concept, each center participating in IMSim has its own set of simulation models and environment(s). These simulation tools are used to build the various simulation products that are used for scientific investigation, engineering analysis, system design, training, planning, operations and more. Working individually, these production simulations provide important data to various NASA projects.

Cures, Edwin Z.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2010

Topics covered include: Wirelessly Interrogated Wear or Temperature Sensors; Processing Nanostructured Sensors Using Microfabrication Techniques; Optical Pointing Sensor; Radio-Frequency Tank Eigenmode Sensor for Propellant Quantity Gauging; High-Temperature Optical Sensor; Integral Battery Power Limiting Circuit for Intrinsically Safe Applications; Configurable Multi-Purpose Processor; Squeezing Alters Frequency Tuning of WGM Optical Resonator; Automated Computer Access Request System; Range Safety for an Autonomous Flight Safety System; Fast and Easy Searching of Files in Unisys 2200 Computers; Parachute Drag Model; Evolutionary Scheduler for the Deep Space Network; Modular Habitats Comprising Rigid and Inflatable Modules; More About N2O-Based Propulsion and Breathable-Gas Systems; Ultrasonic/Sonic Rotary-Hammer Drills; Miniature Piezoelectric Shaker for Distribution of Unconsolidated Samples to Instrument Cells; Lunar Soil Particle Separator; Advanced Aerobots for Scientific Exploration; Miniature Bioreactor System for Long-Term Cell Culture; Electrochemical Detection of Multiple Bioprocess Analytes; Fabrication and Modification of Nanoporous Silicon Particles; High-Altitude Hydration System; Photon Counting Using Edge-Detection Algorithm; Holographic Vortex Coronagraph; Optical Structural Health Monitoring Device; Fuel-Cell Power Source Based on Onboard Rocket Propellants; Polar Lunar Regions: Exploiting Natural and Augmented Thermal Environments; Simultaneous Spectral Temporal Adaptive Raman Spectrometer - SSTARS; Improved Speed and Functionality of a 580-GHz Imaging Radar; Bolometric Device Based on Fluxoid Quantization; Algorithms for Learning Preferences for Sets of Objects; Model for Simulating a Spiral Software-Development Process; Algorithm That Synthesizes Other Algorithms for Hashing; Algorithms for High-Speed Noninvasive Eye-Tracking System; and Adapting ASPEN for Orbital Express.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Sail Torque Model Characterization for the Near Earth Asteroid Scout Mission

Near Earth Asteroid Scout (NEA Scout) was a mission to test solar sail propulsion for orbital transfer from cislunar space to flyby and image an asteroid. Had it succeeded, one of the mission goals was to characterize the solar torque on the sail to ensure successful attitude control for the orbit transfer and imaging the asteroid. The simulation used to develop the flight attitude control software uses the generalized model for solar sails, a tensor equation of the forces and torques on sails of arbitrary shape. Rios-Reyes and Scheeres developed a general process to update the torque tensor coefficients using estimates of sail torque over a range of directions to the sun. Their process was adapted and implemented for the specific case of NEA Scout using spacecraft telemetry collected during sail characterization maneuvers in combination with simulation models and parameters. The NEA Scout maneuvers were limited to the operating range of the mission and constraints of the control hardware and allowed safe testing of each attitude before proceeding to the next. The NEA Scout reaction wheel speeds are used to measure accumulated momentum, while the Active Mass Translator (AMT) position is used to subtract out the torque from the center of mass crossed with the sail force and isolate the torque from only the sail shape. The process was tested by running attitude control simulations of the characterization maneuvers, generating simulated telemetry, estimating the solar torques, then using a least squares estimating the solar torque coefficients using least-squares and then performing a least-squares fit to the solar torque tensor coefficients. These estimated coefficients were tested by evaluating the solar torques under the same conditions as the simulated telemetry and comparing to the true simulated torques. Solar force model updates can be performed separately by observing the effect of the sail on the trajectory, and the torque model can be refined using those solar force updates. This process met the needs of the NEA Scout mission and can be adapted to characterize the solar torque for other missions with different sails.

solar sail↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Sail Torque Model Characterization for the Near Earth Asteroid Scout Mission

Near Earth Asteroid Scout (NEA Scout) was a mission to test solar sail propulsion for orbital transfer from cislunar space to flyby and image an asteroid. One of the goals of the mission was to characterize the solar torque on the sail to ensure successful attitude control for the orbit transfer and imaging the asteroid. The simulation used to develop the flight attitude control software uses the generalized model for solar sails, a tensor equation of the forces and torques on sails of arbitrary shape. Rios-Reyes and Scheeres developed a general process to update the torque tensor coefficients using estimates of sail torque over a range of directions to the sun. Their process was adapted and implemented for the specific case of NEA Scout using spacecraft telemetry collected during sail characterization maneuvers in combination with simulation models and parameters. The NEA Scout maneuvers were limited to the operating range of the mission and constraints of the control hardware and allowed safe testing of each attitude before proceeding to the next. The NEA Scout reaction wheel speeds are used to measure accumulated momentum, while the Active Mass Translator (AMT) position is used to subtract out the torque from the center of mass crossed with the sail force and isolate the torque from only the sail shape. The process was tested by running attitude control simulations of the characterization maneuvers, generating simulated telemetry, estimating the solar torques, then using a least squares estimating the solar torque coefficients using least-squares and then performing a least-squares fit to the solar torque tensor coefficients. These estimated coefficients were tested by evaluating the solar torques under the same conditions as the simulated telemetry and comparing to the true simulated torques. Solar force model updates can be performed separately by observing the effect of the sail on the trajectory, and the torque model can be refined using those solar force updates. This process met the needs of the NEA Scout mission and can be adapted to characterize the solar torque for other missions with different sails.

solar sail↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiation-Hardened GaN HEMT and Cell Design, Modeling, and Fabrication for Nuclear Instrumentation Applications

Recent advances in nuclear power generation technologies show great promise for efficient, safe generation of carbon-free power in the near future. Consequently, many new generation reactor designs are being pursued by government and industry groups, including both fission- and fusion-based technologies. Radiation- and temperature-tolerant sensor technology continues to advance, yet development of the electronics/instrumentation technologies suitable for these environments have fallen behind. Industry has adequately addressed harsh environment electronics needs for low earth orbit satellites, but the much more extreme conditions associated with electronics placed near or in a reactor core remain unaddressed. This project investigates the use of gallium nitride (GaN) circuit technology to address the unique needs for sensor interface electronics and communications in reactor environments. This report provides a summary of the first year’s project activities related to developing and optimizing devices and circuits for this GaN high electronic mobility transistor (HEMT) process. Activities reported include multiple analog and digital circuit designs simulated using custom Verilog-A models generated from measured GaN devices fabricated in the target process. Digital circuit designs included fundamental logic circuits such as an inverter, NAND, NOR, AND and OR gates, as well as a 5-stage ring oscillator. Each design was simulated using an open-source SPICE simulator, and an integrated circuit layout was produced of each design for use in future fabrication. Analog circuit designs focused on the fundamental building blocks to be used to construct sensor interface and communications circuits. These included current mirrors, matched differential pairs, and a Gilbert cell mixer design, each with an associated integrated circuit layout. Layout tools used for these designs included two open-source packages—KLayout and Magic—which were customized for specific use with the OSU GaN process layers. Design rules and preliminary device extraction capabilities were built for the Magic tool to enable device extraction and subsequent netlist generation for SPICE simulation. Finally, future research directions for year two are summarized. When the year-two directions are implemented, the project will be in position to advance the state of the art in electronics for near- or in-reactor sensor interfacing and communications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of HCO + in molecular clouds using a novel chemical post-processing algorithm

Modelling the chemistry of molecular clouds is critical to accurately simulating their evolution. To reduce computational cost, 3D simulations generally restrict their chemistry to species with strong heating and cooling effects. Time-dependent information about the evolution of other species is therefore often neglected. We address this gap by post-processing tracer particles in the SILCC-Zoom molecular cloud simulations. Using a chemical network of 39 species and 301 reactions (including freeze-out of CO and H 2 O) and a novel algorithm to reconstruct a density grid from sparse tracer particle data, we produce time-dependent density distributions for various species. We focus upon the evolution of HCO + , which is a critical formation reactant of CO but is not typically modelled on the fly. We find that ∼ 90 per cent of the HCO + content of the cold molecular gas forms in situ around n HCO + ∼ 10 3 –10 4 cm −3 , over a time-scale of approximately 1 Myr. The remaining ∼ 10 per cent forms at high extinction sites, with minimal turbulent mixing out into the less dense gas. We further show that the dominant HCO + formation pathway is dependent on the visual extinction, with the reaction H 3 + + CO contributing 90 per cent of the total HCO + production above A V, 3D = 3. We produce the very first maps of the HCO + column density, N(HCO + ), and show that it reaches values as high as 10 15 cm −2 . We find that 50 per cent of the HCO + mass is located within AV ∼ 10–30 in a density range of 10 3.5 –10 4.5 cm −3 . Our maps of N(HCO + ) are shown to be in good agreement with recent observations of the W49A star-forming region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these surrogates. However, surrogate methods with dimension reduction generally rely on complete output training data. This article proposes a new Gaussian process surrogate method that permits the use of partially observed output while remaining computationally efficient. The new method involves the imputation of missing values and the adjustment of the covariance matrix used for Gaussian process inference. The resulting surrogate represents the available responses, disregards the missing responses, and provides meaningful uncertainty quantification. In conclusion, the proposed approach is shown to offer sharper inference than alternatives in a simulation study and a case study where an energy density functional model that frequently returns incomplete output is calibrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Satellite Observations and Chemistry Climate Models - A Meandering Path Towards Better Predictions

Knowledge of the chemical and dynamical processes that control the stratospheric ozone layer has grown rapidly since the 1970s, when ideas that depletion of the ozone layer due to human activity were put forth. The concept of ozone depletion due to anthropogenic chlorine increase is simple; quantification of the effect is much more difficult. The future of stratospheric ozone is complicated because ozone is expected to increase for two reasons: the slow decrease in anthropogenic chlorine due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and stratospheric cooling caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Prediction of future ozone levels requires three-dimensional models that represent physical, photochemical and radiative processes, i.e., chemistry climate models (CCMs). While laboratory kinetic and photochemical data are necessary inputs for a CCM, atmospheric measurements are needed both to reveal physical and chemical processes and for comparison with simulations to test the conceptual model that CCMs represent. Global measurements are available from various satellites including but not limited to the LIMS and TOMS instruments on Nimbus 7 (1979 - 1993), and various instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (1991 - 2005), Envisat (2002 - ongoing), Sci-Sat (2003 - ongoing) and Aura (2004 - ongoing). Every successful satellite instrument requires a physical concept for the measurement, knowledge of physical chemical properties of the molecules to be measured, and stellar engineering to design an instrument that will survive launch and operate for years with no opportunity for repair but providing enough information that trend information can be separated from any instrument change. The on-going challenge is to use observations to decrease uncertainty in prediction. This talk will focus on two applications. The first considers transport diagnostics and implications for prediction of the eventual demise of the Antarctic ozone hole. The second focuses on the upper stratosphere, where ozone is predicted to increase both due to chlorine decrease and due to temperature decrease expected as a result of increased concentrations Of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Both applications show how diagnostics developed from global observations are being used to explain why the ozone response varies among CCM predictions for stratospheric ozone in the 21st century.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

An Uncertainty Structure Matrix for Models and Simulations

Software that is used for aerospace flight control and to display information to pilots and crew is expected to be correct and credible at all times. This type of software is typically developed under strict management processes, which are intended to reduce defects in the software product. However, modeling and simulation (M&S) software may exhibit varying degrees of correctness and credibility, depending on a large and complex set of factors. These factors include its intended use, the known physics and numerical approximations within the M&S, and the referent data set against which the M&S correctness is compared. The correctness and credibility of an M&S effort is closely correlated to the uncertainty management (UM) practices that are applied to the M&S effort. This paper describes an uncertainty structure matrix for M&S, which provides a set of objective descriptions for the possible states of UM practices within a given M&S effort. The columns in the uncertainty structure matrix contain UM elements or practices that are common across most M&S efforts, and the rows describe the potential levels of achievement in each of the elements. A practitioner can quickly look at the matrix to determine where an M&S effort falls based on a common set of UM practices that are described in absolute terms that can be applied to virtually any M&S effort. The matrix can also be used to plan those steps and resources that would be needed to improve the UM practices for a given M&S effort.

Green, Lawrence L.↗