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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Part 2: Forensic attribution profiling of Russian VX in food using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry

This work is part two of a three-part series in this issue of a Sweden-United States collaborative effort towards the understanding of the chemical attribution signatures of Russian VX (VR) in synthesized samples and complex food matrices. We describe the sourcing of VR present in food based on chemical analysis of attribution signatures by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) combined with multivariate data analysis. Analytical data was acquired from seven different foods spiked with VR batches that were synthesized via six different routes in two separate laboratories. The synthesis products were spiked at a lethal dose into seven food matrices: water, orange juice, apple purée, baby food, pea purée, liquid eggs and hot dog. After acetonitrile sample extraction, the samples were analyzed by LC-MS/MS operated in MRM mode. A multivariate statistical calibration model was built on the chemical attribution profiles from 118 VR spiked food samples. Using the model, an external test-set of the six synthesis routes employed for VR production was correctly identified with no observable major impact of the food matrices to the classification. The overall performance of the statistical models was found to be exceptional (94%) for the test set samples retrospectively classified to their synthesis routes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Deep Impact Network Experiment Operations Center

Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) promises solutions in solving space communications challenges arising from disconnections as orbiters lose line-of-sight with landers, long propagation delays over interplanetary links, and other phenomena. DTN has been identified as the basis for the future NASA space communications network backbone, and international standardization is progressing through both the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) and the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). JPL has developed an implementation of the DTN architecture, called the Interplanetary Overlay Network (ION). ION is specifically implemented for space use, including design for use in a real-time operating system environment and high processing efficiency. In order to raise the Technology Readiness Level of ION, the first deep space flight demonstration of DTN is underway, using the Deep Impact (DI) spacecraft. Called the Deep Impact Network (DINET), operations are planned for Fall 2008. An essential component of the DINET project is the Experiment Operations Center (EOC), which will generate and receive the test communications traffic as well as "out-of-DTN band" command and control of the DTN experiment, store DTN flight test information in a database, provide display systems for monitoring DTN operations status and statistics (e.g., bundle throughput), and support query and analyses of the data collected. This paper describes the DINET EOC and its value in the DTN flight experiment and potential for further DTN testing.

flight experiment↗

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions From the Fifth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using a common grid sequence and multiple turbulence models for the June 2012 fifth Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing-body previously used for the 4th Drag Prediction Workshop. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

Statistical analysis↗

Correlation between macro- and nano-scopic measurements of carbon nanostructured paper elastic modulus

Extensive work has been done in order to determine the bulk elastic modulus of isotropic samples from force curves acquired with atomic force microscopy. However, new challenges are encountered given the development of new materials constructed of one-dimensional anisotropic building blocks, such as carbon nanostructured paper. In the present work, we establish a reliable framework to correlate the elastic modulus values obtained by amplitude modulation atomic force microscope force curves, a nanoscopic technique, with that determined by traditional macroscopic tensile testing. In order to do so, several techniques involving image processing, statistical analysis, and simulations are used to find the appropriate path to understand how macroscopic properties arise from anisotropic nanoscale components, and ultimately, being able to calculate the value of bulk elastic modulus.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reliability of Maximal Strength Testing in Novice Weightlifters

The one repetition maximum (1RM) is a criterion measure of muscle strength. However, the reliability of 1RM testing in novice subjects has received little attention. Understanding this information is crucial to accurately interpret changes in muscle strength. To evaluate the test-retest reliability of a squat (SQ), heel raise (HR), and deadlift (DL) 1RM in novice subjects. Twenty healthy males (31 plus or minus 5 y, 179.1 plus or minus 6.1 cm, 81.4 plus or minus 10.6 kg) with no weight training experience in the previous six months participated in four 1RM testing sessions, with each session separated by 5-7 days. SQ and HR 1RM were conducted using a smith machine; DL 1RM was assessed using free weights. Session 1 was considered a familiarization and was not included in the statistical analyses. Repeated measures analysis of variance with Tukey fs post-hoc tests were used to detect between-session differences in 1RM (p.0.05). Test-retest reliability was evaluated by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). During Session 2, the SQ and DL 1RM (SQ: 90.2 }4.3, DL: 75.9 }3.3 kg) were less than Session 3 (SQ: 95.3 }4.1, DL: 81.5 plus or minus 3.5 kg) and Session 4 (SQ: 96.6 }4.0, DL: 82.4 }3.9 kg), but there were no differences between Session 3 and Session 4. HR 1RM measured during Session 2 (150.1 }3.7 kg) and Session 3 (152.5 }3.9 kg) were not different from one another, but both were less than Session 4 (157.5 }3.8 kg). The reliability (ICC) of 1RM measures for Sessions 2-4 were 0.88, 0.83, and 0.87, for SQ, HR, and DL, respectively. When considering only Sessions 3 and 4, the reliability was 0.93, 0.91, and 0.86 for SQ, HR, and DL, respectively. One familiarization session and 2 test sessions (for SQ and DL) were required to obtain excellent reliability (ICC greater than or equal to 0.90) in 1RM values with novice subjects. We were unable to attain this level of reliability following 3 HR testing sessions therefore additional sessions may be required to obtain an ICC of greater than or equal to 0.90. Future resistive exercise studies should consider the reliability of specific measures to ensure that changes in strength with training are attributable to training and not learning effects associated with 1RM testing.

Loehr, James A.↗

Design and fabrication of composite wing panels containing a production splice

Bolted specimens representative of both upper and lower wing surface splices of a transport aircraft were designed and manufactured for static and random load tension and compression fatigue testing including ground-air-ground load reversals. The specimens were fabricated with graphite-epoxy composite material. Multiple tests were conducted at various load levels and the results were used as input to a statistical wearout model. The statically designed specimens performed very well under highly magnified fatigue loadings. Two large panels, one tension and compression, were fabricated for testing by NASA-LRC.

Reed, D. L.↗

Confronting Models with Data: The GEWEX Cloud Systems Study

The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) was organized to promote development of improved parameterizations of cloud systems for use in climate and numerical weather prediction models, with an emphasis on the climate applications. The strategy of GCSS is to use two distinct kinds of models to analyze and understand observations of the behavior of several different types of clouds systems. Cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) have high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to represent individual cloud elements, but cover a wide enough range of space and time scales to permit statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. Results from CSRMs are compared with detailed observations, representing specific cases based on field experiments, and also with statistical composites obtained from satellite and meteorological analyses. Single-column models (SCMs) are the surgically extracted column physics of atmospheric general circulation models. SCMs are used to test cloud parameterizations in an un-coupled mode, by comparison with field data and statistical composites. In the original GCSS strategy, data is collected in various field programs and provided to the CSRM Community, which uses the data to "certify" the CSRMs as reliable tools for the simulation of particular cloud regimes, and then uses the CSRMs to develop parameterizations, which are provided to the GCM Community. We report here the results of a re-thinking of the scientific strategy of GCSS, which takes into account the practical issues that arise in confronting models with data. The main elements of the proposed new strategy are a more active role for the large-scale modeling community, and an explicit recognition of the importance of data integration.

Randall, David↗

Statistical Quality Control of Moisture Data in GEOS DAS

A new statistical quality control algorithm was recently implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The final step in the algorithm consists of an adaptive buddy check that either accepts or rejects outlier observations based on a local statistical analysis of nearby data. A basic assumption in any such test is that the observed field is spatially coherent, in the sense that nearby data can be expected to confirm each other. However, the buddy check resulted in excessive rejection of moisture data, especially during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The analysis moisture variable in GEOS DAS is water vapor mixing ratio. Observational evidence shows that the distribution of mixing ratio errors is far from normal. Furthermore, spatial correlations among mixing ratio errors are highly anisotropic and difficult to identify. Both factors contribute to the poor performance of the statistical quality control algorithm. To alleviate the problem, we applied the buddy check to relative humidity data instead. This variable explicitly depends on temperature and therefore exhibits a much greater spatial coherence. As a result, reject rates of moisture data are much more reasonable and homogeneous in time and space.

Dee, D. P.↗

Wireless Monitoring of the Height of Condensed Water in Steam Pipes

A wireless health monitoring system has been developed for determining the height of water condensation in the steam pipes and the data acquisition is done remotely using a wireless network system. The developed system is designed to operate in the harsh environment encountered at manholes and the pipe high temperature of over 200 °C. The test method is an ultrasonic pulse-echo and the hardware includes a pulser, receiver and wireless modem for communication. Data acquisition and signal processing software were developed to determine the water height using adaptive signal processing and data communication that can be controlled while the hardware is installed in a manhole. A statistical decision-making tool is being developed based on the field test data to determine the height of in the condensed water under high noise conditions and other environmental factors.

High Temperatures↗

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the 6th AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using both common and custom grid sequences as well as multiple turbulence models for the June 2016 6th AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing-body previously used for both the 4th and 5th Drag Prediction Workshops. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

Statistical analysis↗

Future long-baseline neutrino oscillations: View from North America

In late 2012 the US Department of Energy gave approval for the first phase of the Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) that will conduct a broad scientific program including neutrino oscillations, neutrino scattering physics, search for baryon violation, supernova burst neutrinos and other related astrophysical phenomena. The project is now being reformulated as an international facility hosted by the United States. The facility will consist of an intense neutrino beam produced at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), a highly capable set of neutrino detectors on the Fermilab campus, and a large underground liquid argon time projection chamber at Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota 1300 km from Fermilab. With an intense beam and massive far detector, the experimental program at the facility will make detailed studies of neutrino oscillations, including measurements of the neutrino mass hierarchy and Charge-Parity symmetry violation, by measuring neutrino and anti-neutrino mixing separately. At the near site, the high-statistics neutrino scattering data will allow for many cross section measurements and precision tests of the Standard Model. This presentation will describe the configuration developed by the LBNE collaboration, the broad physics program, and the status of the formation of the international facility.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A sequential nonparametric pattern classification algorithm based on the Wald SPRT

A sequential nonparametric pattern classification procedure is presented. The method presented is an estimated version of the Wald sequential probability ratio test (SPRT). This method utilizes density function estimates, and the density estimate used is discussed, including a proof of convergence in probability of the estimate to the true density function. The classification procedure proposed makes use of the theory of order statistics, and estimates of the probabilities of misclassification are given. The procedure was tested on discriminating between two classes of Gaussian samples and on discriminating between two kinds of electroencephalogram (EEG) responses.

Poage, J. L.↗

A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Space-time Variability of Rain

Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment.

TRMM↗

Development of a transfer function method for dynamic stability measurement

Flutter testing method based on transfer function measurements is developed. The error statistics of several dynamic stability measurement methods are reviewed. It is shown that the transfer function measurement controls the error level by averaging the data and correlating the input and output. The method also gives a direct estimate of the error in the response measurement. An algorithm is developed for obtaining the natural frequency and damping ratio of low damped modes of the system, using integrals of the transfer function in the vicinity of a resonant peak. Guidelines are given for selecting the parameters in the transfer function measurement. Finally, the dynamic stability measurement technique is applied to data from a wind tunnel test of a proprotor and wing model.

Johnson, W.↗

Testing and signal identification for two-sample high-dimensional covariances via multi-level thresholding

The paper considers testing and signal identification for covariance matrices from two populations of marginally sub-Gaussian distributed. A multi-level thresholding procedure is proposed for testing the equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices, which is designed to detect sparse and faint differences between the covariances. A novel -statistic composition is developed to establish the asymptotic distribution of the thresholding statistics in conjunction with the matrix blocking and the coupling techniques. It is shown that the proposed test is more powerful than the existing tests in detecting sparse and weak signals in covariances. Multiple testing procedures are constructed to discover different covariances and the sub-groups of variables with different covariance structures between the two populations. The proposed procedures are based on the multi-level thresholding test, which are able to control the false discovery proportion () with high power. Simulation experiments and a case study on the returns of the S&P 500 stocks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic are conducted to demonstrate and compare the utilities of the proposed methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparative Analysis of Radial and Random Microstructures of Mesophase Pitch Carbon Fibers

Carbon fibers (CF) with radial and random microstructures are produced. Here, these fibers are subjected to identical treatment before being mechanically tested and analyzed with Weibull analysis, with the results revealing a statistically significant difference in tensile strengths of 2.23 GPa for random CF and 1.69 GPa for radial CF. Raman mapping probed the crystalline structure perpendicular to the fiber axis and found a uniform structure, while wide‐angle X‐ray diffraction showed a significant difference of 7.5 Å in the crystallites’ basal lengths parallel to the fiber. Small‐angle X‐ray scattering is completed parallel to the fiber for the first time. A cross‐section Guinier plot of the 1D azimuthal integration is generated assuming symmetric scattering, and the parallel scatterers are found to have a similar length scale to the crystallite's length, validating the testing method. Finally, transmission electron microscopy is completed on the longitudinal cross‐section of each fiber. The radial carbon fiber is found to have a core–shell structure, as evidenced further by fast Fourier transform images. Through all studies, it is shown that the structure developed during mesophase pitch spinning altered the microstructure, thus impacting the mechanical properties, confirming a direct relationship between processing, structure, and properties.

Scherschel, Alexander [Univ. of Virginia, Charlott↗

TU-FG-201-05: Varian MPC as a Statistical Process Control Tool

Purpose: Quality assurance in radiotherapy requires the measurement of various machine parameters to ensure they remain within permitted values over time. In Truebeam release 2.0 the Machine Performance Check (MPC) was released allowing beam output and machine axis movements to be assessed in a single test. We aim to evaluate the Varian Machine Performance Check (MPC) as a tool for Statistical Process Control (SPC). Methods: Varian’s MPC tool was used on three Truebeam and one EDGE linac for a period of approximately one year. MPC was commissioned against independent systems. After this period the data were reviewed to determine whether or not the MPC was useful as a process control tool. Analyses on individual tests were analysed using Shewhart control plots, using Matlab for analysis. Principal component analysis was used to determine if a multivariate model was of any benefit in analysing the data. Results: Control charts were found to be useful to detect beam output changes, worn T-nuts and jaw calibration issues. Upper and lower control limits were defined at the 95% level. Multivariate SPC was performed using Principal Component Analysis. We found little evidence of clustering beyond that which might be naively expected such as beam uniformity and beam output. Whilst this makes multivariate analysis of little use it suggests that each test is giving independent information. Conclusion: The variety of independent parameters tested in MPC makes it a sensitive tool for routine machine QA. We have determined that using control charts in our QA programme would rapidly detect changes in machine performance. The use of control charts allows large quantities of tests to be performed on all linacs without visual inspection of all results. The use of control limits alerts users when data are inconsistent with previous measurements before they become out of specification. A. Carver has received a speaker’s honorarium from Varian.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Isotropy-violation diagnostics for B -mode polarization foregrounds to the Cosmic Microwave Background

Isotropy-violation statistics can highlight polarized galactic foregrounds that contaminate primordial B -modes in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). We propose a particular isotropy-violation test and apply it to polarized Planck 353 GHz data, constructing a map that indicates B -mode foreground dust power over the sky. We build our main isotropy test in harmonic space via the bipolar spherical harmonic basis, and our method helps us to identify the least-contaminated directions. By this measure, there are regions of low foreground in and around the BICEP field, near the South Galactic Pole, and in the Northern Galactic Hemisphere. There is also a possible foreground feature in the BICEP field. In our study, we compare our results to those based on the local power spectrum, which is computed on discs using a version of the method of Planck Int. XXX (2016). The discs method is closely related to our isotropy-violation diagnostic. We pay special care to the treatment of noise, including chance correlations with the foregrounds. Currently we use our isotropy tool to assess the cleanest portions of the sky, but in the future such methods will allow isotropy-based null tests for foreground contamination in maps purported to measure primordial B -modes, particularly in cases of limited frequency coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗