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Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool

The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) is an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power system planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. Outputs from the DCAT will help find mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. The current prototype DCAT implementation has been developed as a Python code that accesses the simulation functions of the Siemens PSS/E planning tool (PSS/E). It has the following features: It uses a hybrid dynamic and steady-state approach to simulating the cascading outage sequences that includes fast dynamic and slower steady-state events. It integrates dynamic models with protection scheme models for generation, transmission, and load. It models special protection systems (SPSs)/remedial action schemes (RASs) and automatic and manual corrective actions. Overall, the DCAT attempts to bridge multiple gaps in cascading-outage analysis in a single, unique prototype tool capable of automatically simulating and analyzing cascading sequences in real systems using multiprocessor computers. While the DCAT has been implemented using PSS/E in Phase I of the study, other commercial software packages with similar capabilities can be used within the DCAT framework.

Source record↗

Resiliency of Degraded Built Infrastructure

Infrastructure resiliency depends on the ability of infrastructure systems to withstand, adapt, and recover from chronic and extreme stresses. In this white paper, we address the resiliency of infrastructure assets and discuss improving infrastructure stability through development of our understanding of cement and concrete degradation. The resiliency of infrastructure during extreme events relies on the condition, adaptability, and recoverability of built infrastructure (roads, bridges, dams), which serves as the backbone of existing infrastructure systems. Much of the built infrastructure in the US has consistently been rated D+ by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Aged infrastructure introduces risk to the system, since unreliable infrastructure increases the likelihood of failures under chronic and extreme stress and are particularly concerning when extreme events occur. To understand and account for this added risk from poor infrastructure quality, more research is needed on (i) how the changing environment alters the aging of new and existing built infrastructure and (ii) how degradation causes unique failure mechanisms. The aging of built infrastructure is based on degradation of the structural materials, such as concrete and steel supports, which causes failure. Current work in cement/concrete degradation is based on (i) the development of high strength and degradation resistance concrete mixtures, (ii) methods of assessing the age and reliability of existing structures, and (3) modeling of structural stability and the microstructural evolution of concrete/cement from degradation mechanisms (sulfide attack, carbonation, decalcification). Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has made several investments in studying the durability and degradation of cement based materials, including using SNL-developed codes and methodologies (peridynamics, PFLOTRAN) to focus on chemo-mechanical fracture of cement for energy applications. Additionally, a recent collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder has included fracture of concrete gravity dams, scaling the existing work to applications in full sized infrastructure problems. Ultimately, SNL has the experience in degradation of cementitious materials to extend the current research portfolio and answer concerns about the resilience of aging built infrastructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

FES 2023 Theory & Simulation Performance Target

The Report for the 2023 Theory & Simulation Performance Target (TSPT) is presented herein. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd Quarter Reports are given in Sec. I, Sec. II and Sec. III. These are unchanged from those previously submitted, except that in this final document the equations, figures and citations have been automatically renumbered. The 4th Quarter Report is given in Sec. IV. The following material presents verification calculations of several widely used three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium codes in strongly shaped configurations; for both fixed and free-boundary equilibria; for the so-called vacuum case and for the case of high plasma pressure; and, for magnetic fields that have nested magnetic surfaces and for fields that have a magnetic island. The configurations studied includes the recently discovered “precise-QA” case [Phys. Rev. Lett., 128, 035001 (2002)] and other highly optimized configurations. Because of the strong (extreme) shaping, the latter of these pose challenges to the 3D MHD codes. A new method is introduced for constructing coordinates in arbitrarily shaped toroidal domains, and this can improve the robustness of 3D equilibrium calculations. Beyond the equilibrium calculation, this report demonstrates the capability of performing non-linear extended-MHD modelling of optimized stellarator equilibria. This capability allows the assessment not only of linear stability thresholds but also of the nonlinear evolution of unstable equilibria to new configurations that might be far from the original configuration, with significantly different transport properties and magnetic topology. They also enable the self-consistent determination of pressure profiles in non-integrable magnetic topology through the use of highly anisotropic thermal-transport equations. The calculations presented here represent the first demonstration of extended-MHD calculations in strongly-shaped, optimized quasi-symmetric configurations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

IPEAT+: A Built-In Optimization and Automatic Calibration Tool of SWAT+

For almost 30 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been successfully implemented to address issues around various scientific subjects in the world. On the other hand, it has been reaching to the limit of potential flexibility in further development by the current structure. The new generation SWAT, dubbed SWAT+, was released recently with entirely new coding features. SWAT+ is designed to have far more advanced functions and capacities to handle challenging watershed modeling tasks for hydrologic and water quality processes. However, it is still inevitable to conduct model calibration before the SWAT+ model is applied to engineering projects and research programs. The primary goal of this study is to develop an open-source, easy-to-operate automatic calibration tool for SWAT+, dubbed IPEAT+ (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool Plus). There are four major advantages: (i) Open-source code to general users; (ii) compiled and integrated directly with SWAT+ source code as a single executable; (iii) supported by the SWAT developer group; and, (iv) built with efficient optimization technique. The coupling work between IPEAT+ and SWAT+ is fairly simple, which can be conducted by users with minor efforts. IPEAT+ will be regularly updated with the latest SWAT+ revision. If users would like to integrate IPEAT+ with various versions of SWAT+, only few lines in the SWAT+ source code are required to be updated. IPEAT+ is the first automatic calibration tool integrated with SWAT+ source code. Users can take advantage of the tool to pursue more cutting-edge and forward-thinking scientific questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Methods for Comparing Different Polyline Stream Network Models

Two techniques for exploring relative horizontal accuracy of complex linear spatial features are described and sample source code (pseudo code) is presented for this purpose. The first technique, relative sinuosity, is presented as a measure of the complexity or detail of a polyline network in comparison to a reference network. We term the second technique longitudinal root mean squared error (LRMSE) and present it as a means for quantitatively assessing the horizontal variance between two polyline data sets representing digitized (reference) and derived stream and river networks. Both relative sinuosity and LRMSE are shown to be suitable measures of horizontal stream network accuracy for assessing quality and variation in linear features. Both techniques have been used in two recent investigations involving extracting of hydrographic features from LiDAR elevation data. One confirmed that, with the greatly increased resolution of LiDAR data, smaller cell sizes yielded better stream network delineations, based on sinuosity and LRMSE, when using LiDAR-derived DEMs. The other demonstrated a new method of delineating stream channels directly from LiDAR point clouds, without the intermediate step of deriving a DEM, showing that the direct delineation from LiDAR point clouds yielded an excellent and much better match, as indicated by the LRMSE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of a Methodology to Assess the Impact of Non-Conventional Waste Streams Following a Radiological Incident - 18271

The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) is a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based decision support tool for estimating waste generated from remediation and cleanup activities following a radiological incident. WEST uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) Hazus-MH software's infrastructure information combined with image classification capabilities to estimate the quantity of waste and debris that may result from a radiological incident. WEST can be used to create customized decontamination strategies that allow end-users to evaluate different means of decontamination and how those strategies may impact the resulting waste stream in each geographical locality. This capability can potentially reduce the response/recovery time frame and cost. One of the key observations from past applications of WEST is that planning scenarios are site-specific, especially when dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) waste management issues. Furthermore, site-specific issues are not limited to resource limitations or response bottlenecks but should also account for differences in an area's geography and urban footprint, a phenomenon observed during the Fukushima response. For instance, a recent WEST case study found that the amount of waste generated per unit of affected area, for a given decontamination approach, is largely a function of the building surface area in the affected area (relative to the ground surfaces). However, differences in the geometry and density of contaminated objects in the landscape may impact the amount and characteristics of the waste stream. Although buildings typically constitute a large portion of the surface area in urban environments, other objects such as vehicles and trees can be just as prominent. For example, seasonal changes in the amount of foliage present can alter the non-structural surface area calculated for an area like New York City by 20-30%. Very little is known about the impact that these non-conventional waste streams have on overall remediation strategies, or to what extent differences in characteristics of urban versus rural environments, traffic activities, or seasonal variations may have on these factors. This paper will present the proposed methodology to incorporate into WEST the impacts that niche, nonconventional waste streams might have from rural and urban environments following a nuclear power plant incident or detonation of a radiological dispersal device or improvised nuclear device. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

MABAL: a Novel Deep-Learning Architecture for Machine-Assisted Bone Age Labeling

Bone age assessment (BAA) is a commonly performed diagnostic study in pediatric radiology to assess skeletal maturity. The most commonly utilized method for assessment of BAA is the Greulich and Pyle method (Pediatr Radiol 46.9:1269–1274, 2016; Arch Dis Child 81.2:172–173, 1999) atlas. The evaluation of BAA can be a tedious and time-consuming process for the radiologist. As such, several computer-assisted detection/diagnosis (CAD) methods have been proposed for automation of BAA. Classical CAD tools have traditionally relied on hard-coded algorithmic features for BAA which suffer from a variety of drawbacks. Recently, the advent and proliferation of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has shown promise in a variety of medical imaging applications. There have been at least two published applications of using deep learning for evaluation of bone age (Med Image Anal 36:41–51, 2017; JDI 1–5, 2017). However, current implementations are limited by a combination of both architecture design and relatively small datasets. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of a customized neural network algorithm carefully calibrated to the evaluation of bone age utilizing a relatively large institutional dataset. In doing so, this study will aim to show that advanced architectures can be successfully trained from scratch in the medical imaging domain and can generate results that outperform any existing proposed algorithm. The training data consisted of 10,289 images of different skeletal age examinations, 8909 from the hospital Picture Archiving and Communication System at our institution and 1383 from the public Digital Hand Atlas Database. The data was separated into four cohorts, one each for male and female children above the age of 8, and one each for male and female children below the age of 10. The testing set consisted of 20 radiographs of each 1-year-age cohort from 0 to 1 years to 14–15+ years, half male and half female. The testing set included left-hand radiographs done for bone age assessment, trauma evaluation without significant findings, and skeletal surveys. A 14 hidden layer-customized neural network was designed for this study. The network included several state of the art techniques including residual-style connections, inception layers, and spatial transformer layers. Data augmentation was applied to the network inputs to prevent overfitting. A linear regression output was utilized. Mean square error was used as the network loss function and mean absolute error (MAE) was utilized as the primary performance metric. MAE accuracies on the validation and test sets for young females were 0.654 and 0.561 respectively. For older females, validation and test accuracies were 0.662 and 0.497 respectively. For young males, validation and test accuracies were 0.649 and 0.585 respectively. Finally, for older males, validation and test set accuracies were 0.581 and 0.501 respectively. The female cohorts were trained for 900 epochs each and the male cohorts were trained for 600 epochs. An eightfold cross-validation set was employed for hyperparameter tuning. Test error was obtained after training on a full data set with the selected hyperparameters. Using our proposed customized neural network architecture on our large available data, we achieved an aggregate validation and test set mean absolute errors of 0.637 and 0.536 respectively. To date, this is the best published performance on utilizing deep learning for bone age assessment. Our results support our initial hypothesis that customized, purpose-built neural networks provide improved performance over networks derived from pre-trained imaging data sets. We build on that initial work by showing that the addition of state-of-the-art techniques such as residual connections and inception architecture further improves prediction accuracy. This is important because the current assumption for use of residual and/or inception architectures is that a large pre-trained network is required for successful implementation given the relatively small datasets in medical imaging. Instead we show that a small, customized architecture incorporating advanced CNN strategies can indeed be trained from scratch, yielding significant improvements in algorithm accuracy. It should be noted that for all four cohorts, testing error outperformed validation error. One reason for this is that our ground truth for our test set was obtained by averaging two pediatric radiologist reads compared to our training data for which only a single read was used. This suggests that despite relatively noisy training data, the algorithm could successfully model the variation between observers and generate estimates that are close to the expected ground truth.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Optimization and Parallelization of the Thermal-Hydraulic Sub-channel Code CTF for High-Fidelity Multi-physics Applications

This paper describes major improvements to the computational infrastructure of the CTF sub-channel code so that full-core sub-channel-resolved simulations can now be performed in much shorter run-times, either in stand-alone mode or as part of coupled-code multi-physics calculations. These improvements support the goals of the Department Of Energy (DOE) Consortium for Advanced Simulations of Light Water (CASL) Energy Innovation Hub to develop high fidelity multi-physics simulation tools for nuclear energy design and analysis. A set of serial code optimizations--including fixing computational inefficiencies, optimizing the numerical approach, and making smarter data storage choices--are first described and shown to reduce both execution time and memory usage by about a factor of ten. Next, a Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) parallelization strategy targeting distributed memory Multiple Instruction Multiple Data (MIMD) platforms and utilizing domain-decomposition is presented. In this approach, data communication between processors is accomplished by inserting standard MPI calls at strategic points in the code. The domain decomposition approach implemented assigns one MPI process to each fuel assembly, with each domain being represented by its own CTF input file. The creation of CTF input files, both for serial and parallel runs, is also fully automated through use of a pre-processor utility that takes a greatly reduced set of user input over the traditional CTF input file. To run CTF in parallel, two additional libraries are currently needed; MPI, for inter-processor message passing, and the Parallel Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc), which is leveraged to solve the global pressure matrix in parallel. Results presented include a set of testing and verification calculations and performance tests assessing parallel scaling characteristics up to a full core, sub-channel-resolved model of Watts Bar Unit 1 under hot full-power conditions (193 17x17 assemblies, ~56,000 pins, ~59,000 sub-channels, ~2.8 million thermal-hydraulic (TH) control volumes). Results demonstrate that CTF can now perform full core analysis (not previously possible due to excessively long runtimes and memory requirements) on the order of 20 minutes. This new capability is not only useful to standalone CTF users, but is also being leveraged in support of coupled code multi-physics calculations being done in the CASL program.

COBRA-TF↗

Differences in Brainstem Fiber Tract Response to Radiation: A Longitudinal Diffusion Tensor Imaging Study

Purpose: To determine whether radiation-induced changes in white matter tracts are uniform across the brainstem. Methods and Materials: We analyzed serial diffusion tensor imaging data, acquired before radiation therapy and over 48 to 72 months of follow-up, from 42 pediatric patients (age 6-20 years) with medulloblastoma. FSL software (FMRIB, Oxford, UK) was used to calculate fractional anisotropy (FA) and axial, radial, and mean diffusivities. For a consistent identification of volumes of interest (VOIs), the parametric maps of each patient were transformed to a standard brain space (MNI152), on which we identified VOIs including corticospinal tract (CST), medial lemniscus (ML), transverse pontine fiber (TPF), and middle cerebellar peduncle (MCP) at the level of pons. Temporal changes of DTI parameters in VOIs were compared using a linear mixed effect model. Results: Radiation-induced white matter injury was marked by a decline in FA after treatment. The decline was often accompanied by decreased axial diffusivity, increased radial diffusivity, or both. This implied axonal damage and demyelination. We observed that the magnitude of the changes was not always uniform across substructures of the brainstem. Specifically, the changes in DTI parameters for TPF were more pronounced than in other regions (P<.001 for FA) despite similarities in the distribution of dose. We did not find a significant difference among CST, ML, and MCP in these patients (P>.093 for all parameters). Conclusions: Changes in the structural integrity of white matter tracts, assessed by DTI, were not uniform across the brainstem after radiation therapy. These results support a role for tract-based assessment in radiation treatment planning and determination of brainstem tolerance.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

National Cancer Database Analysis of Proton Versus Photon Radiation Therapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To analyze outcomes and predictors associated with proton radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the National Cancer Database. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Database was queried to capture patients with stage I-IV NSCLC treated with thoracic radiation from 2004 to 2012. A logistic regression model was used to determine the predictors for utilization of proton radiation therapy. The univariate and multivariable association with overall survival were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models along with log–rank tests. A propensity score matching method was implemented to balance baseline covariates and eliminate selection bias. Results: A total of 243,822 patients (photon radiation therapy: 243,474; proton radiation therapy: 348) were included in the analysis. Patients in a ZIP code with a median income of <$46,000 per year were less likely to receive proton treatment, with the income cohort of $30,000 to $35,999 least likely to receive proton therapy (odds ratio 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44-0.90]; P=.011). On multivariate analysis of all patients, non-proton therapy was associated with significantly worse survival compared with proton therapy (hazard ratio 1.21 [95% CI 1.06-1.39]; P<.01). On propensity matched analysis, proton radiation therapy (n=309) was associated with better 5-year overall survival compared with non-proton radiation therapy (n=1549), 22% versus 16% (P=.025). For stage II and III patients, non-proton radiation therapy was associated with worse survival compared with proton radiation therapy (hazard ratio 1.35 [95% CI 1.10-1.64], P<.01). Conclusions: Thoracic radiation with protons is associated with better survival in this retrospective analysis; further validation in the randomized setting is needed to account for any imbalances in patient characteristics, including positron emission tomography–computed tomography staging.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in sodium-cooled fast microreactors

Analysis of three sodium-cooled fast microreactors (SFMs) with thermal powers of 10, 30, and 50 MWt showed that smaller reactors result in lower radiological consequences during a postulated sabotage-induced event because of their reduced core inventory. All SFMs used U-10Zr metal fuel enriched to 15 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium and operated until their respective effective multiplication factor (k eff ) reduced to less than 1 or until the end of their operational lifespan. Sabotage scenarios were simulated at this point, when the fuel inventory within the core contains the highest-level of radioactivity. Radionuclide core inventories were calculated using the SCALE code at shutdown and 3 days post-shutdown. Dose consequence analyses were performed for three sabotage scenarios using the RASCAL tool. As microreactor developers plan for minimal on-site or complete off-site emergency response, it remains essential to evaluate their physical protection needs and potential hazards, including assessing postulated sabotage-induced events that could become more relevant. SFM licensees should identify a credible worst-case, major accident, estimate release source terms, and perform dose consequence analyses to evaluate site-specific physical protection measures. In conclusion, this recommendation supports a risk-informed, performance-based approach, aligning with applicable regulatory requirements, i.e., 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 rulemaking in the United States.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Fast ion confinement in quasi-axisymmetric stellarator equilibria

This report presents an initial analysis of the fast ion confinement and losses within quasi-axisymmetric stellarator equilibria in consideration by Thea Energy. The equilibria have not yet been explicitly optimized for fast particle confinement and require validation. Modeling with the ASCOT5 code is used to directly examine the fast ion transport. The particle tracking simulations are purely (neo)classical in nature and simply contain the supplied equilibrium and collisions (pitch-angle, energy slowing, and velocity diffusion) from supplied thermal profiles. Uniform marker deposition is used to probe the general confinement properties of the equilibria while a realistic beam-born population is provided from the BEAMS3D code and an alpha particle population is calculated from a fusion source integrator. A first wall is included and defines the loss boundary. Analysis for NBI ions within Thea Energy’s conceptual Eos neutron source are presented along with alpha particles in an enlarged DT-plasma. The fast ions are assessed in regards to their confinement time, pitch, energy, and spatial coordinates. For each population, the impact of collisions and orbit drifts are discussed. It is found that NBI born ions in Eos are strongly confined until slowing-down, owing largely to the tangential injection geometry, while 22% of DT-born alpha energy is lost in the scaled device, indicating that any fusion pilot plant design optimization should include metrics for fast ion confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluating Unified Memory Performance in HIP

Heterogeneous unified memory management between a CPU and a GPU is a major challenge in GPU computing. Recently, unified memory (UM) has been supported by software and hardware components on AMD computing platforms. The support could simplify the complexities of memory management. In this paper, we attempt to have a better understanding of UM by evaluating the performance of UM programs on an AMD MI100 GPU. More specifically, we evaluate data migration using UM against other data transfer techniques for the overall performance of an application, assess the impacts of three commonly used optimization techniques on the kernel execution time of a vector add sample, and compare the performance and productivity of selected benchmarks with and without UM. The performance overhead associated with UM is not trivial, but it can improve programming productivity by reducing lines of code for scientific applications. We aim to present early results and feedback on the UM performance to the vendor.

Jin, Zheming↗

SU-E-T-512: Electromagnetic Simulations of the Dielectric Wall Accelerator

Purpose: To characterize and parametrically study the key components of a dielectric wall accelerator through electromagnetic modeling and particle tracking. Methods: Electromagnetic and particle tracking simulations were performed using a commercial code (CST Microwave Studio, CST Inc.) utilizing the finite integration technique. A dielectric wall accelerator consists of a series of stacked transmission lines sequentially fired in synchrony with an ion pulse. Numerous properties of the stacked transmission lines, including geometric, material, and electronic properties, were analyzed and varied in order to assess their impact on the transverse and axial electric fields. Additionally, stacks of transmission lines were simulated in order to quantify the parasitic effect observed in closely packed lines. Particle tracking simulations using the particle-in-cell method were performed on the various stacks to determine the impact of the above properties on the resultant phase space of the ions. Results: Examination of the simulation results show that novel geometries can shape the accelerating pulse in order to reduce the energy spread and increase the average energy of accelerated ions. Parasitic effects were quantified for various geometries and found to vary with distance from the end of the transmission line and along the beam axis. An optimal arrival time of an ion pulse relative to the triggering of the transmission lines for a given geometry was determined through parametric study. Benchmark simulations of single transmission lines agree well with published experimental results. Conclusion: This work characterized the behavior of the transmission lines used in a dielectric wall accelerator and used this information to improve them in novel ways. Utilizing novel geometries, we were able to improve the accelerating gradient and phase space of the accelerated particle bunch. Through simulation, we were able to discover and optimize design issues with the device at low cost. Funding: Morgridge Institute for Research, Madison WI; Conflict of Interest: Dr. Mackie is an investor and board member at CPAC, a company developing compact accelerator designs similar to those discussed in this work, but designs discussed are not directed by CPAC. Funding: Morgridge Institute for Research, Madison WI; Conflict of Interest: Dr. Mackie is an investor and board member at CPAC, a company developing compact accelerator designs similar to those discussed in this work, but designs discussed are not directed by CPAC.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

The ESIF-HPC-2 Benchmark Suite

We describe the development of the ESIF-HPC-2 benchmark suite, a collection of kernel and application benchmark codes for measuring computational and I/O performance from single nodes to full HPC systems that was used for acceptance testing in our recent HPC procurement. The configurations of the benchmarks used for our system is presented. We also describe a set of "dimensions" that can be used to classify benchmarks and assess coverage of a suite systematically. The collection is offered cost-free as a GitHub repository for general usage and further development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

RAVEN: Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation on the Feasibility of Using Ultrasonic Testing of Reactor Pressure Vessel Welds for Assessing Flaw Density/Distribution per 10 CFR 50.61a, Alternate Fracture Toughness Requirements for Protection Against Pressurized Thermal Shock

This technical letter report provides the status of an assessment undertaken by PNNL at the request of the NRC to verify the capability of periodic ASME-required volumetric examinations of reactor vessels to characterize the density and distribution of flaws of interest for applying §50.61a on a plant-by-plant basis. The PTS rule, described in the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 10, Section 50.61 (§50.61), "Fracture Toughness Requirements for Protection against Pressurized Thermal Shock Events," establishes screening criteria to ensure that the potential for a reactor vessel to fail due to a PTS event is deemed to be acceptably low. Recently, the NRC completed a research program that concluded that the risk of through-wall cracking due to a PTS event is much lower than previously estimated. The NRC subsequently developed and promulgated an alternate PTS rule, §50.61a, that can be implemented by PWR licensees. The §50.61a rule differs from §50.61 in that it requires licensees who choose to follow this alternate method to analyze the results from periodic volumetric examinations required by the ASME Code, Section XI, Rules for Inservice Inspection (ISI) of Nuclear Power Plants.

alternate PTS rule↗

RAVEN. Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗