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DOE OSTI2018

Verification Data Pattern Recognition and Change Detection at the Neutron Instrument Level

As the pressure on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards resources increases, there is a drive to essentially “do more with less.” New ways of using current verification instrumentation and visualizing the collected data are needed, coupled with maintaining and sustaining the current safeguards instrumentation fleet. This paper explores how to innovate with current safeguards neutron instrumentation using data-driven algorithms at the instrument level. A concept is described for upgrading current neutron counting systems with modern electronics by leveraging electronics developments in other fields (e.g., high-energy physics) to facilitate full list mode data acquisition and, therefore, expand existing analyses to pattern recognition and change detection at the instrument level. The aim is to advance correlated neutron counting by improving the reliability of detecting nuclear material diversion and, at the same time, to improve the sustainability of those systems. It is likely that upgrading existing systems with new hardware and software is more cost-effective than replacing systems with other novel systems that might meet this need. A specific project example is highlighted in which a system was upgraded by retrofitting the standard uranium neutron collar detector with new electronics; as a result, verification data can be analyzed in new ways. A new neutron analysis method, the “List Mode Response Matrix,” has been developed to analyze every pulse train from the detector array and thus enable the verification of spatial information about the assay item for safeguards inspections. This project has improved the reliability of resolving individual fuel pin locations within a given fresh fuel assembly and the percentage of partial defects detected. Herein, the overall concept of upgrading current neutron counting systems is discussed with respect to the potential increase in analysis capabilities. In addition, the details and results of the list mode collar project are discussed.

Worrall, Louise G.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Status of the Terra and Aqua Modis Collection 7 L1B

The MODIS instruments on the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts have successfully operated for more than 23 and 21years, respectively, and have far exceeded their designed lifetimes of 6 years. The visible, near infrared, and short-wave infrared spectral bands, with wavelengths from 0.41 to 2.2 μm, are calibrated using the on-board solar diffuser. Themid-wave infrared and long-wave infrared spectral bands are calibrated using a blackbody. The sustained calibration and characterization efforts undertaken by the MODIS Characterization Support Team (MCST) have resulted in several upgrades to the Level-1B (L1B) algorithms over the mission lifetime. The latest version of the L1B algorithm, designated as Collection 7 (C7), was developed based upon observed performance of the current operational L1B product (C6.1), changing instrument behavior, and feedback from the science community. This paper provides an overview of the C7 algorithm and its improvements over the previous data collection, as well as some of the updates that have been incorporated since the first delivery in early 2021.

Amit Angal↗

DOE OSTI2019

Exploratory analysis of high-resolution power interruption data reveals spatial and temporal heterogeneity in electric grid reliability

Modern grid monitoring equipment enables utilities to collect detailed records of power interruptions. Here, these data are aggregated to compute publicly reported metrics describing high-level characteristics of grid performance. The current work explores the depth of insights that can be gained from public data, and the implications of losing visibility into heterogeneity in grid performance through aggregation. We present an exploratory analysis examining three years of high-resolution power interruption data collected by archiving information posted in real-time on the public-facing website of a utility in the Western United States. We report on the size, frequency and duration of individual power interruptions, and on spatio-temporal variability in aggregate reliability metrics. Our results show that metrics of grid performance can vary spatially and temporally by orders of magnitude, revealing heterogeneity that is not evidenced in publicly reported metrics. We show that limited access to granular information presents a substantive barrier to conducting detailed policy analysis, and discuss how more widespread data access could help to answer questions that remain unanswered in the literature to date. Lastly, given open questions about whether grid performance is adequate to support societal needs, we recommend establishing pathways to make high-resolution power interruption data available to support policy research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Understanding the Evolution of Customer Motivations and Adoption Barriers in Residential Solar Markets: Survey Data

This research focused on accelerating solar photovoltaic (PV) diffusion by collecting new market data and developing predictive modeling frameworks to test and refine understandings of household level motivations for adopting solar. Three different household-level surveys were fielded: one for households who had installed PV on their current home or had signed a contract to do so (the Adopter survey), one for households that had seriously considered PV but had not installed it (the Considerer survey), and one for the general population who did not have PV on their current home (the general population survey or GPS). Survey respondents were from four U.S. states: New Jersey, New York, Arizona, and California. Details of recruiting and sampling are documented below. Research projects on residential PV adoption often collect data only from PV adopters or from the general population. One of the innovations of this project was the three-pronged household survey data collection. By collecting similar data from three fairly different "statuses" with respect to adoption, the surveys provide a basis for understanding how those who do not have rooftop PV differ from those who have, for how and why people do (or don't) transition from not having to having rooftop PV on their home, and for understanding the characteristics and viewpoints of households who have scarcely, or not at all, entered the "PV consideration" track. All three surveys covered single-family owner-occupied households in each of the four target states used in the project -- Arizona, California, New Jersey, and New York - allowing a comparative approach to understanding how the factors that affect PV adoption vary by geography and policy conditions. The General Population and Considerer surveys provide a basis for understanding opinions about and interest in solar, and how these relate to household demographics and other conditions. Paired with the Adopter survey, they also provide data for understanding how those who do not have rooftop PV differ from those who have, and for how and why people do (or don't) transition from not having to having rooftop PV on their home. The Adopter survey questions were designed to capture a broad range of information on what motivates and impedes households to install rooftop PV, as well as the details and timing of the decision and installation. Survey instrument development drew from existing PV adoption survey instruments, PV adoption literature, and research team experience, as well as from past work on household interest in energy efficiency, environmental attitudes, purchasing tendencies, and related knowledge. Early interviews and discussions with installers and others in the PV industry were also taken into consideration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate inhibits growth of mouse ovarian antral follicles through an oxidative stress pathway

Di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is a plasticizer that has been shown to inhibit growth of mouse antral follicles, however, little is known about the mechanisms by which DEHP does so. Oxidative stress has been linked to follicle growth inhibition as well as phthalate-induced toxicity in non-ovarian tissues. Thus, we hypothesized that DEHP causes oxidative stress and that this leads to inhibition of the growth of antral follicles. To test this hypothesis, antral follicles isolated from CD-1 mice (age 31–35 days) were cultured with vehicle control (dimethylsulfoxide [DMSO]) or DEHP (1–100 μg/ml) ± N-acetyl cysteine (NAC, an antioxidant at 0.25–1 mM). During culture, follicles were measured daily. At the end of culture, follicles were collected and processed for in vitro reactive oxygen species (ROS) assays to measure the presence of free radicals or for measurement of the expression and activity of various key antioxidant enzymes: Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD1), glutathione peroxidase (GPX) and catalase (CAT). The results indicate that DEHP inhibits the growth of follicles compared to DMSO control and that NAC (0.25–1 mM) blocks the ability of DEHP to inhibit follicle growth. Furthermore, DEHP (10 μg/ml) significantly increases ROS levels and reduces the expression and activity of SOD1 compared to DMSO controls, whereas NAC (0.5 mM) rescues the effects of DEHP on ROS levels and SOD1. However, the expression and activity of GPX and CAT were not affected by DEHP treatment. Collectively, these data suggest that DEHP inhibits follicle growth by inducing production of ROS and by decreasing the expression and activity of SOD1. -- Highlights: ► DEHP inhibits growth and increases reactive oxygen species in ovarian antral follicles in vitro. ► NAC rescues the effects of DEHP on the growth and reactive oxygen species levels in follicles. ► DEHP decreases the expression and activity of Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase, which can be rescued by NAC, in antral follicles.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Fiberboard Humidity Data for 9975 Shipping Packages

The 9975 surveillance program is identifying a technical basis to support extending the storage period of 9975 packages in KAC beyond the currently approved 15 years. A key element of this effort is developing a better understanding of degradation of the fiberboard assembly under storage conditions. This degradation is influenced greatly by the moisture content of the fiberboard, which is not well characterized on an individual package basis. Two efforts have been undertaken to better understand the levels and behavior of moisture within the fiberboard assemblies of the 9975 shipping package. In the first effort, an initial survey of humidity and temperature in the upper air space of 26 packages stored in KAC was made. The data collected within this first effort help to illustrate how the upper air space humidity varies with the local ambient temperature and package heat load. In the second effort, direct measurements of two test packages are providing a correlation between humidity and fiberboard moisture levels within the package, and variations in moisture throughout the fiberboard assembly. This effort has examined packages with cane fiberboard and internal heat levels of 5 and 10W to date. Additional testing is expected to include 15 and 19W heat levels, and then repeat the same four heat levels with softwood fiberboard assemblies. This report documents the data collected to date within these two efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Fiberboard Humidity Data for 9975 Shipping Packages

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Fiberboard Humidity Data for 9975 Shipping Packages

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2012

The French Geological Repository Project Cigeo - 12023

The French Agency for Radioactive Waste Management, ANDRA, was launched by law in 1991 to perform and develop the research programme for managing high level and intermediate level long-lived radioactive waste generated by the French nuclear fleet. After a 15-year intensive research programme, including the study of alternative solutions, an overall review and assessment of the results was organized, including a national public debate. As a result, the Parliament passed a Planning Act on radioactive waste management in 2006. Commissioning of a geological repository by 2025 was one of the most important decisions taken at that time. To reach this goal, a license application must be submitted and reviewed by the competent authorities by 2015. A detailed review and consultation process is, as well, defined in the Planning Act. Beside the legal framework the project needs to progress on two fronts. The first one is on siting. A significant milestone was reached in 2009 with the definition of a defined area to locate the underground repository facilities. This area was approved in March 2010 by the Government, after having collected the opinions and positions of all the interested parties, at both National and local levels. A new phase of dialogue with local players began to refine the implementation scenarios of surface facilities. The final site selection will be approved after a public debate planned for 2013. The second one is the industrial organization, planning and costing. The industrial project of this geological repository was called Cigeo (Centre Industriel de Stockage Geologique). Given the amount of work to be done to comply with the given time framework, a detailed organization with well-defined milestones must be set-up. Cigeo will be a specific nuclear facility, built and operated underground for over a hundred years. The consequence of this long duration is that the development of the repository facilities will take place in successive operational phases. The characteristics of the first waste packages received will determine the work and the corresponding investments by 2025 on the repository site. One of the main challenges will be to accommodate both activities of mining and nuclear operations at the same time and at the same location. From the technical standpoint, ventilation and fire risk cannot be managed through a simple transposition from current nuclear industry practices. The reversibility demand also leads to concrete proposals with regard to repository management flexibility and waste package retrievability. These proposals contribute to the dialogue with stakeholders to prepare for the public debate and a future law which will determine the reversibility conditions. New design developments are expected to be introduced in the application from the current studies conducted until 2014. The possibility of optimization beyond 2015 will be kept open taking into account the one hundred years operating time as well as the capability to integrate feedback gained from the first construction and operation works. The industrial committed work aims to reach the application stage by 2015. The license application procedure was defined by the 2006 Act. Subject to authorization, the construction might begin in 2017. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Relationships among DNA hypomethylation, Cd, and Pb exposure and risk of cigarette smoking-related urothelial carcinoma

Cigarette smoking and environmental exposure to heavy metals are important global health issues, especially for urothelial carcinoma (UC). However, the effects of cadmium and lead exposure, as well as the levels of DNA hypomethylation, on UC risk are limited. We evaluated the possible exposure sources of Cd and Pb and the relationship among DNA hypomethylation, urinary Cd and Pb levels, and UC risk. We recruited 209 patients with UC and 417 control patients for a hospital-based case–control study between June 2011 and August 2014. We collected environmental exposure-related information with questionnaires. Blood and urine samples were analyzed to measure the Cd and Pb exposure and 5-methyl-2′-deoxycytidine levels as a proxy for DNA methylation. Multivariate logistic regression and 95% confidence intervals were applied to estimate the risk for UC. Study participants with high Cd and Pb exposure in blood or urine had significantly increased risk of UC, especially among the smokers. After adjusting for age and gender, the possible connections of individual cumulative cigarette smoking or herb medicine exposure with the increased levels of Cd and Pb were observed in the controls. Participants with 8.66%–12.39% of DNA hypomethylation had significantly increased risk of UC compared with those with ≥ 12.39% of DNA hypomethylation. Environmental factors including cigarette smoking and herb medicine may contribute to the internal dose of heavy metals levels. Repeat measurements of heavy metals with different study design, detailed dietary information, and types of herb medicine should be recommended for exploring UC carcinogenesis in future studies. - Highlights: • Smoking and herb medicine ingestion is associated with increased urinary Cd and Pb levels. • Urinary levels of Cd and Pb are associated with increased risk of UC. • UC carcinogenesis might have partially resulted from DNA hypomethylation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Endpoint Evaluation for 200-PW-1 Operable Unit Soil Vapor Extraction, Hanford Site, Washington - 16478

On the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site in semi-arid southeast Washington State, the 216-Z-9 Trench, 216-Z-1A Tile Field, and 216-Z-18 Crib were used from 1955 to 1973 for soil column disposal of liquid wastes containing carbon tetrachloride. The geological setting underneath these disposal areas consists of an approximately 70 m thick vadose zone with a nominally 5 m thick low-permeability layer at a depth of 30 m. Infiltration of the liquid waste through the vadose zone to the groundwater was driven by the liquid volume introduced during disposal. Carbon tetrachloride readily volatilises in the vadose zone, making soil vapor extraction (SVE) the preferred remediation technology. Between 1992 and 2012, SVE recovered 80,107 kg of carbon tetrachloride from the vadose zone below the three waste sites. Of this total recovery, 93 percent was removed during the first 5 years of operations. The last 7 percent was recovered in the last 16 years of operation. In 2011, a final cleanup level of 100 ppmv for carbon tetrachloride in soil vapor was established in the record of decision for the 200-PW-1 Operable Unit, which includes the three carbon tetrachloride waste sites. The final cleanup decision specified that soil vapor concentrations and the cleanup level would be further refined and assessed in the future to ensure groundwater protection. A subsequent treatability test was conducted and the results were used to further refine the definition of vadose zone source conditions that are protective of groundwater. Based on this treatability test, predictions indicate that current and future vadose zone conditions will meet groundwater protection objectives. SVE operations were not performed in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and soil vapor concentrations in all SVE wells (and all but two monitoring probes installed using direct-push technology) remained below the 100 ppmv cleanup level during this time. SVE endpoint guidance was prepared in 2013 as a joint effort between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This SVE guidance was used to develop a path forward for the 200-PW-1 Operable Unit SVE remedy. The guidance asks the following questions: 1. Are data collected to date adequate to support a well-defined conceptual site model? 2. Have remediation goals (cleanup levels) been defined? 3. Are environmental pathways and risk understood well enough to support site closeout? 4. Will remaining contamination in the vadose zone cause groundwater cleanup levels to be exceeded? If the answer to the first three questions is 'Yes', and the answer to the fourth question is 'No', then the site is ready for closure. At this time, the site has compiled appropriate information to answer these questions to support a remedy decision to terminate SVE operations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently provided concurrence that termination of SVE operations within the 200-PW-1 Operable Unit is appropriate. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plot-level rapid screening for photosynthetic parameters using proximal hyperspectral imaging

Abstract Photosynthesis is currently measured using time-laborious and/or destructive methods which slows research and breeding efforts to identify crop germplasm with higher photosynthetic capacities. We present a plot-level screening tool for quantification of photosynthetic parameters and pigment contents that utilizes hyperspectral reflectance from sunlit leaf pixels collected from a plot (~2 m×2 m) in <1 min. Using field-grown Nicotiana tabacum with genetically altered photosynthetic pathways over two growing seasons (2017 and 2018), we built predictive models for eight photosynthetic parameters and pigment traits. Using partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis of plot-level sunlit vegetative reflectance pixels from a single visible near infra-red (VNIR) (400–900 nm) hyperspectral camera, we predict maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vc,max, R2=0.79) maximum electron transport rate in given conditions (J1800, R2=0.59), maximal light-saturated photosynthesis (Pmax, R2=0.54), chlorophyll content (R2=0.87), the Chl a/b ratio (R2=0.63), carbon content (R2=0.47), and nitrogen content (R2=0.49). Model predictions did not improve when using two cameras spanning 400–1800 nm, suggesting a robust, widely applicable and more ‘cost-effective’ pipeline requiring only a single VNIR camera. The analysis pipeline and methods can be used in any cropping system with modified species-specific PLSR analysis to offer a high-throughput field phenotyping screening for germplasm with improved photosynthetic performance in field trials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Measuring changes in ambient noise levels from the installation and operation of a surge wave energy converter in the coastal ocean

Ecosystem impacts resulting from elevated underwater noise levels generated by anthropogenic activities in the coastal ocean are poorly understood and remain difficult to address as a result of a significant gap in knowledge for existing nearshore sound levels. Ambient noise is an important habitat component for marine mammals and fish that use sound for essential functions such as communication, navigation, and foraging. Questions surrounding the amplitudes, frequency distributions, and durations of noise emissions from renewable wave energy conversion (WEC) projects during their construction and operation present concerns for long-term consequences in marine habitats. Oregon’s dynamic nearshore environment presents significant challenges for passive acoustic monitoring that include flow noise contamination from wave orbital motions, turbulence from breaking surf, equipment burial, and fishing pressure from sport and commercial crabbers. This project included 2 techniques for passive acoustic data collection: 1) campaign style deployments of fixed hydrophone lander stations to capture temporal variations in noise levels and 2) a drifting hydrophone system to record spatial variations within the project site. The hydrophone lander deployments were effective and economically feasible for enabling robust temporal measurements of ambient noise levels in a variety of sea state conditions. Limiting factors for the fixed stations included 1) a flow shield mitigation strategy failure in the first deployment resulting in significant wideband data contamination and 2) flow noise contamination of the unshielded sensors restricting valuable analysis to frequencies above 500 Hz for subsequent deployments. Drifting hydrophone measurements were also effective and economically feasible (although logistically challenging in the beginning of the project due to vessel time constraints) providing a spatial distribution of sound levels, comparisons of noise levels in varying levels of vessel traffic during similar sea states, and reducing the frequencies contaminated by flow noise to f < 50 Hz by an effective drifting hydrophone system design strategy. Results from this project can still assist regulatory agencies and WEC developers in permitting and licensing, reducing project costs overall and assisting the economic development of the WEC industry, thus furthering the MHK energy industry and easing the U.S. reliance on foreign oil for energy production. Additionally, results from this project can be used to help inform coastal resource managers and regulatory agencies on existing baseline noise level variability and ecosystem health.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2020

SPRUCE High-Resolution Minirhizotrons in an Experimentally-Warmed Peatland Provide an Unprecedented Glimpse at Fine Roots and their Fungal Partners: Supporting Data

Images were collected using first of their kind, non-destructive, high-resolution automated minirhizotrons (RhizoSystems, LLC) to assess the response of plant fine-root and fungal mycelium dynamics to elevated temperatures after 4-6 years of whole-ecosystem warming and exposure to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (e[CO2]) in a peat bog where the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment is located. We focused on two SPRUCE experimental plots: Plot 10 has elevated temperature (+9°C) and plot 19 is a control (+0°C). Both have elevated carbon dioxide (e[CO2]). Changes in root and fungal abundance with warming were estimated from a timeseries of landscape-level mosaiced images for each plot by measuring the proportional abundance of five belowground classes: fine roots of vascular plants, ectomycorrhizas, fungal hyphae, fungal rhizomorphs, and fungal sporocarps. To examine root and fungal phenology responses to warming, the length per individual root or fungal structure (except fungal hyphae that did not grow linearly but rather increased in areal coverage) were measured per image area of a set of timeseries patch-level mosaiced images for each plot. The experimental work was conducted in a Picea mariana [black spruce] – Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This ecosystem, which is located at the southern margin of the boreal forest, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change and anticipated to be near its tipping point. These data were used in analyses published in Defrenne et al (2021). This dataset contains 5 data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format and a compressed folder (*.zip) containing 383 JPEG (*.jpg) images. Data files contain landscape-level assessment of belowground class abundance, patch-level growth phenology, and environmental variables (originally published in Hanson et al., 2016 and Hanson et al 2020). Images were collected with automated minirhizotrons and analyzed for phenology. Additional metadata are provided: 5 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

ZIRCONIUM AND FISSION PRODUCT MANAGEMENT IN THE ALSEP PROCESS

Solvent extraction systems that combine neutral donor extractants and acidic extractants are being investigated to provide a single process solvent for separating Am and Cm from acidic high-level liquid waste, including their separation from the trivalent lanthanides. This approach of combining extractants is collectively referred to as the Actinide-Lanthanide SEParation (ALSEP) process. Managing Zr and other fission products is one of the critical factors in developing the ALSEP process. In this work, a strategy has been developed in which Zr(IV) is extracted into the process solvent, then it is stripped from the solvent after the actinides have been selectively stripped. Molybdenum is strongly extracted into ALSEP solvents. Scrubbing the solvent with a citrate buffer before the actinide stripping step effectively removes Mo. Distribution ratios for Ru and Fe are low for extraction from HNO3, so these components can easily be routed to the high-level waste raffinate.

actinide separation↗

DOE OSTI2014

Improved crystal orientation and physical properties from single-shot XFEL stills

X-ray free-electron laser crystallography relies on the collection of still-shot diffraction patterns. New methods are developed for optimal modeling of the crystals’ orientations and mosaic block properties. X-ray diffraction patterns from still crystals are inherently difficult to process because the crystal orientation is not uniquely determined by measuring the Bragg spot positions. Only one of the three rotational degrees of freedom is directly coupled to spot positions; the other two rotations move Bragg spots in and out of the reflecting condition but do not change the direction of the diffracted rays. This hinders the ability to recover accurate structure factors from experiments that are dependent on single-shot exposures, such as femtosecond diffract-and-destroy protocols at X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs). Here, additional methods are introduced to optimally model the diffraction. The best orientation is obtained by requiring, for the brightest observed spots, that each reciprocal-lattice point be placed into the exact reflecting condition implied by Bragg’s law with a minimal rotation. This approach reduces the experimental uncertainties in noisy XFEL data, improving the crystallographic R factors and sharpening anomalous differences that are near the level of the noise.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2018

The relationship between Aquaporin-2 protein levels in amniotic fluid and the fetal kidney in humans

Aquaporin-2 (AQP2) is an important water channel protein that is expressed in the renal collecting duct and plays a key role in urine concentration and body water homeostasis. It has been demonstrated that the urinary excretion of AQP2 correlates strongly with its expression in the kidney in adult humans and rats. However, there have been no studies on the urinary excretion of AQP2 in human fetuses during development. Fetal urine is the main source of the amniotic fluid; we speculate that the level of AQP2 in the amniotic fluid could reflect the expression level of the AQP2 protein in the fetal kidney. The purpose of the present study was to explore the relationship between AQP2 in the amniotic fluid and that in the fetal kidney.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

What next-generation 21 cm power spectrum measurements can teach us about the epoch of reionization

A number of experiments are currently working toward a measurement of the 21 cm signal from the epoch of reionization (EoR). Whether or not these experiments deliver a detection of cosmological emission, their limited sensitivity will prevent them from providing detailed information about the astrophysics of reionization. In this work, we consider what types of measurements will be enabled by the next generation of larger 21 cm EoR telescopes. To calculate the type of constraints that will be possible with such arrays, we use simple models for the instrument, foreground emission, and the reionization history. We focus primarily on an instrument modeled after the ∼0.1 km{sup 2} collecting area Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array concept design and parameterize the uncertainties with regard to foreground emission by considering different limits to the recently described 'wedge' footprint in k space. Uncertainties in the reionization history are accounted for using a series of simulations that vary the ionizing efficiency and minimum virial temperature of the galaxies responsible for reionization, as well as the mean free path of ionizing photons through the intergalactic medium. Given various combinations of models, we consider the significance of the possible power spectrum detections, the ability to trace the power spectrum evolution versus redshift, the detectability of salient power spectrum features, and the achievable level of quantitative constraints on astrophysical parameters. Ultimately, we find that 0.1 km{sup 2} of collecting area is enough to ensure a very high significance (≳ 30σ) detection of the reionization power spectrum in even the most pessimistic scenarios. This sensitivity should allow for meaningful constraints on the reionization history and astrophysical parameters, especially if foreground subtraction techniques can be improved and successfully implemented.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗