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At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Survival and behavior of Mojave desert tortoises head-started with and without outdoor rearing

Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations in some regions have declined by >50% since 2004, prompting the need for more research on ways to recover populations. One possible recovery tool is head-starting (i.e., the act of protecting and raising juvenile tortoises to sizes that increase survival upon release); however, head-starting can have high start-up and maintenance costs that can limit its feasibility. Strategies that reduce cost and rearing duration may foster broader and more effective use. We released and radio-tracked 60 juvenile tortoises in the Mojave National Preserve in California, USA, that had been reared under 2 treatments: those reared 1 year indoors after hatching, then 1 year outdoors (combo) and those reared just 1 year indoors (indoor-only). We tested whether indoor-only rearing alone could be a more efficient means of producing robust head-started tortoises. We examined the behavior, movement, and survival of tortoises after release into the wild from 2020 to 2021 to determine whether these outcomes differed between husbandry treatments. Combo tortoises tended to perform settling behaviors (mean ± 1 SE days to building first burrow = 6.7 ± 0.8, entering dormancy = 23.3 ± 2.1, and emerging from dormancy = 189.6 ± 4.4) earlier than indoor-only tortoises (7.4 ± 0.9, 31.5 ± 2.6, and 193.9 ± 5.9, respectively), but this difference was not significant, suggesting the rearing method did not greatly alter settling behavior. Indoor-only tortoises dispersed at least twice as far from their release site (156.2 ± 26.3 m compared with 77.3 ± 20.6 m for combo tortoises), had larger mean use areas (3.7 ± 0.1 ha compared with 2.8 ± 0.3 ha for combo tortoises for 95% Brownian bridge movement model estimates), and greater variability in their movements than combo tortoises (daily average step length post-emergence: 4.3 ± 0.2 m compared with 2.8 ± 0.1 m for combo tortoises). Despite differences in their movements, indoor-only and combo tortoises had similar survival rates over the study, 51% versus 42%, respectively, during a period of extreme drought in 2021. The similarity in survival between groups gives head-starting practitioners freedom in their rearing methods. The indoor-only group had lower site fidelity, which should be considered when this is an undesirable trait for released tortoises.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ecological engineering projects increased vegetation cover, production, and biomass in semiarid and subhumid Northern China

Multiple ecological engineering projects have been implemented in semiarid and subhumid Northern China since 1978 with the purpose to combat desertification, control dust storms, and improve vegetation cover. Although a plethora of local studies exist, the effectiveness of these projects has not been studied in a systematic and comprehensive way. Here, we used multiple satellite-based time-series data as well as breakpoint analysis to assess shifts in leaf area index (a proxy for green vegetation cover), gross primary production, and aboveground biomass in Northern China. We documented increased vegetation growth in northwest and southeastern parts of the region, despite drought anomalies as documented by the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index during 1982–2016. Significant breakpoints in leaf area index were observed for over 72.5% of the southeastern and northwestern regions, and 70.6% of these breakpoints were detected after 1999, which correspond well to the areas with the highest ecological engineering efforts. Areas with negative trends were mainly located in the Inner Mongolian Plateau, Hulun Biur, Horqin Sand Land, and urban areas. The Loess Plateau had the largest increase in vegetation growth, followed by the north parts of Northern China where biomass increased more in the provinces of Shanxi, Liaoning, Shannxi, Hebei, and Beijing than Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, and Qinghai. Our results show that multiple ecological engineering projects in the region have increased vegetation cover, production, and aboveground biomass that have led to improved environmental conditions in the study area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural and anthropogenic controls on lake water‐level decline and evaporation‐to‐inflow ratio in the conterminous United States

Abstract Lake water levels are integral to lake function, but hydrologic changes from land and water management may alter lake fluctuations beyond natural ranges. We constructed a conceptual model of multifaceted drivers of lake water levels and evaporation‐to‐inflow ratio (Evap : Inflow). Using a structural equation modeling framework, we tested our model on (1) a national subset of lakes in the conterminous United States with minimal water management to describe natural drivers of lake hydrology and (2) five ecoregional subsets of lakes to explore regional variation in water management effects. Our model fits the national and ecoregional datasets and explained up to 47% of variation in Evap : Inflow, 38% of vertical water level decline, and 79% of horizontal water level decline (littoral exposure). For lakes with minimal water management, Evap : Inflow was related to lake depth ( β = −0.31) and surface inflow ( β = −0.44); vertical decline was related to annual climate (e.g., precipitation β = −0.18) and water management ( β = −0.21); and horizontal decline was largely related to vertical decline ( β = 0.73) and lake morphometry (e.g., depth β = −0.18). Anthropogenic effects varied by ecoregion and likely reflect differences in regional water management and climate. In the West, water management indicators were related to greater vertical decline ( β = 0.38), whereas in the Midwest, these indicators were related to more stable and full lake levels ( β = −0.22) even during drought conditions. National analyses show how human water use interacts with regional climate resulting in contrasting impacts to lake hydrologic variation in the United States.

Fergus, C. Emi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

New prospects for PV powered water desalination plants: case studies in Saudi Arabia: New prospects for PV powered water desalination plants

Increased water demand and increased drought episodes in the Middle East and other regions necessitate an expansion in desalination projects and create a great market opportunity for photovoltaics (PV). PV-powered desalination has previously been regarded as not being a cost-competitive solution when compared with conventionally powered desalination; however, the decline in PV costs over the last few years has changed this outlook. Here, this article presents up-to-date performance and cost analysis of reverse osmosis (RO) desalination powered with PV connected to the Saudi Arabian grid. Reference cases include relatively small (i.e., producing 6550 m 3 water per day) and large (i.e., 190 000 m 3 /day) desalination plants using seawater at a salinity of 40 000 ppm. We used data from a King Abdullah University for Science and Technology presentation and Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables 2.81 Energy Modeling Software (HOMER Energy LLC) in tandem with Desalination Economic Evaluation Program 4.0 (International Atomic Energy Agency) desalination software to analyze the techno-economic feasibility of these plants. The first phase of our work entailed a comparison between dual-axis high concentration PV (CPV) equipped with triple junction III/V solar cells and CdTe PV-powered RO systems. The estimated levelized cost of electricity from CPV is 0.16/kWh dollars, whereas that from CdTe PV is $0.10/kWh dollars and 0.09/kWh dollars for fixed-tilt and one-axis tracking systems, respectively. These costs are higher than the price of diesel-based grid electricity in the region because diesel fuel is heavily subsidized in Saudi Arabia.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of promoter elements of isoprene‐responsive genes and the ability of isoprene to bind START domain transcription factors

Abstract Isoprene has recently been proposed to be a signaling molecule that can enhance tolerance of both biotic and abiotic stress. Not all plants make isoprene, but all plants tested to date respond to isoprene. We hypothesized that isoprene interacts with existing signaling pathways rather than requiring novel mechanisms for its effect on plants. We analyzed the cis‐regulatory elements (CREs) in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes and the corresponding transcription factors binding these promoter elements to obtain clues about the transcription factors and other proteins involved in isoprene signaling. Promoter regions of isoprene‐responsive genes were characterized using the Arabidopsis cis‐regulatory element database. CREs bind ARR1, Dof, DPBF, bHLH112, GATA factors, GT‐1, MYB, and WRKY transcription factors, and light‐responsive elements were overrepresented in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes; CBF‐, HSF‐, WUS‐binding motifs were underrepresented. Transcription factors corresponding to CREs overrepresented in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes were mainly those important for stress responses: drought‐, salt/osmotic‐, oxidative‐, herbivory/wounding and pathogen‐stress. More than half of the isoprene‐responsive genes contained at least one binding site for TFs of the class IV (homeodomain leucine zipper) HD‐ZIP family, such as GL2, ATML1, PDF2, HDG11, ATHB17. While the HD‐zipper‐loop‐zipper (ZLZ) domain binds to the L1 box of the promoter region, a special domain called the steroidogenic acute regulatory protein‐related lipid transfer, or START domain, can bind ligands such as fatty acids (e.g., linolenic and linoleic acid). We tested whether isoprene might bind in such a START domain. Molecular simulations and modeling to test interactions between isoprene and a class IV HD‐ZIP family START‐domain‐containing protein were carried out. Without membrane penetration by the HDG11 START domain, isoprene within the lipid bilayer was inaccessible to this domain, preventing protein interactions with membrane bound isoprene. The cross‐talk between isoprene‐mediated signaling and other growth regulator and stress signaling pathways, in terms of common CREs and transcription factors could enhance the stability of the isoprene emission trait when it evolves in a plant but so far it has not been possible to say what how isoprene is sensed to initiate signaling responses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sorghum stem aerenchyma formation is regulated by SbNAC_D during internode development

Abstract Sorghum bicolor is a drought‐resilient C4 grass used for production of grain, forage, sugar, and biomass. Sorghum genotypes capable of accumulating high levels of stem sucrose have solid stems that contain low levels of aerenchyma. The D ‐locus on SBI 06 modulates the extent of aerenchyma formation in sorghum stems and leaf midribs. A QTL aligned with this locus was identified and fine‐mapped in populations derived from BT x623* IS 320c, BT x623*R07007, and BT x623*Standard broomcorn. Analysis of coding polymorphisms in the fine‐mapped D ‐locus showed that genotypes that accumulate low levels of aerenchyma encode a truncated NAC transcription factor (Sobic.006G147400, SbNAC_d1 ), whereas parental lines that accumulate higher levels of stem aerenchyma encode full‐length NAC TF s ( SbNAC‐D ). During vegetative stem development, aerenchyma levels are low in nonelongated stem internodes, internode growing zones, and nodes. Aerenchyma levels increase in recently elongated internodes starting at the top of the internode near the center of the stem. SbNAC_D was expressed at low levels in nonelongated internodes and internode growing zones and at higher levels in regions of stem internodes that form aerenchyma. SbXCP1 , a gene encoding a cysteine protease involved in programmed cell death, was induced in SbNAC_D genotypes in parallel with aerenchyma formation in sorghum stems but not in SbNAC_d1 genotypes. Several sweet sorghum genotypes encode the recessive SbNAC_d1 allele and have low levels of stem aerenchyma. Based on these results, we propose that SbNAC_D is the D ‐gene identified by Hilton (1916) and that allelic variation in SbNAC_D modulates the extent of aerenchyma formation in sorghum stems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and demonstration of a low‐field magnetic resonance imaging rhizotron for in‐field imaging of energy sorghum roots

Abstract Root phenotyping provides critical information to plant breeders for developing varieties with improved drought tolerance, greater root biomass, and greater nutrient use efficiency. Phenotyping roots in the natural environment is important for understanding the effect of the soil environment on root genotypic expressions. The goal of this work was to design and test a field‐scale mobile low‐field magnetic resonance imaging (LF‐MRI) Rhizotron that produces actionable root phenotyping data. We demonstrated this novel technology for root visualization and quantification using a LF‐MRI Rhizotron operating at 47 mT with two soil types. The LF‐MRI Rhizotron weights 453 kg, with a height of 90 cm, a diameter of 28 cm and an imaging field of view of 28 cm × 28 cm. The unit was operated in a Belk clay (Entic Hapluderts) and Weswood silt loam (Udifluventic Halustepts) generating 2‐D and 3‐D image data sets. The 2‐D image data had a collection time of 16.5 min per image at an image resolution of 2.2 mm per pixel. The 3‐D data had a collection time of 13 h per image with a 2.2 × 2.2 × 2.2 mm voxel resolution. Low‐field magnetic resonance imaging worked well for visualizing roots in moderate to high clay soils, demonstrating the potential for this technology; however, the broad application of this platform is hampered due to the prohibitively long scanning time to obtain 3‐D images. By increasing the field strength, and therefore the signal‐to‐noise ratio, faster scan times can enable a more useful system for root phenotyping.

Bagnall, G. Cody↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functional in vitro diversity of an intrinsically disordered plant protein during freeze–thawing is encoded by its structural plasticity

Intrinsically disordered late embryogenesis abundant (LEA) proteins play a central role in the tolerance of plants and other organisms to dehydration brought upon, for example, by freezing temperatures, high salt concentration, drought or desiccation, and many LEA proteins have been found to stabilize dehydration-sensitive cellular structures. Their conformational ensembles are highly sensitive to the environment, allowing them to undergo conformational changes and adopt ordered secondary and quaternary structures and to participate in formation of membraneless organelles. In an interdisciplinary approach, we discovered how the functional diversity of the Arabidopsis thaliana LEA protein COR15A found in vitro is encoded in its structural repertoire, with the stabilization of membranes being achieved at the level of secondary structure and the stabilization of enzymes accomplished by the formation of oligomeric complexes. We provide molecular details on intra- and inter-monomeric helix–helix interactions, demonstrate how oligomerization is driven by an α-helical molecular recognition feature (α-MoRF) and provide a rationale that the formation of noncanonical, loosely packed, right-handed coiled-coils might be a recurring theme for homo- and hetero-oligomerization of LEA proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Root water uptake of biofuel crops revealed by coupled electrical resistivity and soil water content measurements

Abstract Biofuel crops, including annuals such as maize ( Zea mays L.), soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr.], and canola ( Brassica napus L.), as well as high‐biomass perennial grasses such as miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus J.M. Greef & Deuter ex Hodkinson & Renvoiz), are candidates for sustainable alternative energy sources. However, large‐scale conversion of croplands to perennial biofuel crops could have substantial impacts on regional water, nutrient, and C cycles due to the longer growing seasons and differences in rooting systems compared with most annual crops. However, due to the limited tools available to nondestructively study the spatiotemporal patterns of root water uptake in situ at field scales, these differences in crop water use are not well known. Geophysical imaging tools such as electrical resistivity (ER) reveal changes in water content in the soil profile. In this study, we demonstrate the use of a novel coupled hydrogeophysical approach with both time domain reflectometry soil water content and ER measurements to compare root water uptake and soil properties of an annual crop rotation with the perennial grass miscanthus, across three growing seasons (2009–2011) in southwest Michigan, USA. We estimated maximum root depths to be between 1.2 and 2.2 m, with the vertical distribution of roots being notably deeper in 2009 relative to 2010 and 2011, likely due to the drought conditions during that first year. Modeled cumulative ET of both crops was underestimated (2–34%) relative to estimates obtained from soil water drawdown in prior studies but was found to be greater in the perennial grass than the annual crops, despite shallower modeled rooting depths in 2010 and 2011.

Kuhl, Alexandria S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing a strategy for the national coordinated soil moisture monitoring network

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System. The strategy is currently in review within NOAA, and work is underway to implement the initial milestones of the strategy. This update reviews the goals and steps being taken to establish this national-scale coordination for soil moisture monitoring in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of plateau, slope, and valley on soil hydrology during the dry season in a Central Amazon old‐growth forest

Soil moisture regulates plant water supply and drought sensitivity in tropical forests, yet its vertical and topographic variation remains poorly characterized. We combined high-frequency time-domain reflectometry measurements from 5 to 100 cm across plateau, slope, and valley landforms at the Zona Florestal 2 research site north of Manaus, Central Amazonia, to quantify how soil moisture memory, timing of responses to rainfall, dry-down rates (τ), and soil–water depletion vary across these contrasting landforms. Landform-specific soil moisture calibration curves ensured accurate volumetric water content estimates in these highly weathered soils. During the 2023 dry-to-wet transition (August–November), soil moisture memory showed strong topographic contrasts, with valley profiles increasing from ∼47 h at 5 cm to ∼154 h at 100 cm, while plateaus exhibited higher near-surface persistence (∼124 h at 5 cm) but weaker memory at depth. Dry-down behavior reinforced these differences as valley soils exhibited τ values exceeding ∼200 h, more than double the characteristic τ of plateau soils (∼90 h). Rainfall–soil moisture correlations indicated immediate responses at shallow depths in valleys and progressively longer lags with depth on plateaus and slopes. These hydrologic patterns were mirrored in depletion profiles, which declined sharply below 30 cm on plateaus but remained high and sustained throughout the upper meter in slopes and valleys. Together, these findings provide the first depth-resolved field measurements of soil moisture memory, rainfall coupling, dry-down constants, and depletion dynamics across major upland landforms in Central Amazonia and offer clear observational benchmarks for improving land-surface and ecosystem model representations of soil–water processes.

Hillslope↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extracellular DNA Alters Detection of Subtle Bacterial Responses to Soil Rewetting

Microbial communities are often characterized using DNA-based sequencing, but these approaches also capture extracellular DNA (exDNA) released from dead cells, potentially altering inference about microbial responses to environmental change. This may be especially important during pulse disturbances, such as soil drying–rewetting, which can increase microbial mortality and transient necromass pools. We assessed whether exDNA altered inference about bacterial responses to drying–rewetting (an 80 mm simulated rainfall event following a 28-day drought) in conventionally tilled corn and perennial switchgrass soils. We quantified bacterial abundance (16 S rRNA gene copies), alpha diversity, and community composition in paired soil samples with exDNA included (+ exDNA) and in samples treated with propidium monoazide (PMAxx) to reduce amplification of exDNA (− exDNA). At our level of replication (n = 4), PMAxx treatment did not significantly alter overall temporal response patterns (i.e., no significant main effect of DNA treatment or DNA × time interaction). However, PMAxx treatment increased sensitivity to detect some pairwise temporal changes in bacterial abundance and community composition in corn soils following rewetting. exDNA pools were proportionally highest immediately after rewetting in corn soils, suggesting transient extracellular DNA may contribute to masking during disturbance recovery. In contrast, PMAxx treatment had comparatively small effects in switchgrass soils, which exhibited weaker temporal responses overall. Inclusion of exDNA also changed which taxa appeared most responsive to rewetting. Together, our results suggest that exDNA does not uniformly bias soil microbial inference, but may reduce detectability of subtle disturbance-driven shifts in certain soils. Future studies should advance knowledge of microbial turnover and necromass dynamics, particularly using multiple complementary methods, to help predict when exDNA is most likely to influence ecological inference.

drying-rewetting↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2015

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are most subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mechanisms causing east Australian spring rainfall differences between three strong El Niño events

Strong El Niño events have had significant impacts on society through their association with extreme events, such as droughts and floods. However, questions remain as to the robustness of strong El Niño events in forcing regional climate variability. The strong 1982, 1997 and 2015 El Niño events were of similar type and strength, but in eastern Australia they were associated with differing spring rainfall anomaly magnitudes and patterns. To understand these differences, we first determined the most important processes for teleconnecting the El Niño signal to east Australian spring rainfall using historical relationships with winds and sea level pressure. Then, using a 60-member atmospheric model ensemble, we estimated the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on Australian atmospheric circulation and rainfall during these three El Niño events relative to internal variability. We found that the different east Australian spring rainfall anomalies for each of the three El Niño events are best explained by differences in the strength of the meridional wind component of the regional circulation. All three El Niño events exhibited a positive sea level pressure anomaly to the south of Australia, which was associated with rainfall deficits along the southeast Australian coast. The experiments indicate the regional atmospheric circulation and rainfall differences were forced by SSTs during spring of 1982 and 1997, with their influence on the circulation in 2015 remaining unclear. We also show that SSTs adjacent to Australia further contributed to the modelled rainfall differences mainly by regulating moisture availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment

The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗