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Benchmarking boron carbide equation of state using computation and experiment

Boron carbide ( B 4 C ) is of both fundamental scientific and practical interest due to its structural complexity and how it changes upon compression, as well as its many industrial uses and potential for use in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density physics experiments. Here, we report the results of a comprehensive computational study of the equation of state (EOS) of B 4 C in the liquid, warm dense matter, and plasma phases. Our calculations are cross-validated by comparisons with Hugoniot measurements up to 61 megabar from planar shock experiments performed at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Our computational methods include path integral Monte Carlo, activity expansion, as well as all-electron Green's function Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker and molecular dynamics that are both based on density functional theory. We calculate the pressure-internal energy EOS of B 4 C over a broad range of temperatures ( ~ 6 × 10 3 – 5 × 10 8 K) and densities (0.025–50 g / cm 3 ). We assess that the largest discrepancies between theoretical predictions are ≲ 5 % near the compression maximum at 1– 2 × 10 6 K. This is the warm-dense state in which the K shell significantly ionizes and has posed grand challenges to theory and experiment. By comparing with different EOS models, we find a Purgatorio model (LEOS 2122) that agrees with our calculations. The maximum discrepancies in pressure between our first-principles predictions and LEOS 2122 are ~ 18 % and occur at temperatures between 6 × 10 3 – 2 × 10 5 K, which we believe originate from differences in the ion thermal term and the cold curve that are modeled in LEOS 2122 in comparison with our first-principles calculations. To account for potential differences in the ion thermal term, we have developed three new equation-of-state models that are consistent with theoretical calculations and experiment. We apply these new models to 1D hydrodynamic simulations of a polar direct-drive NIF implosion, demonstrating that these new models are now available for future ICF design studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Validation of RELAP-7 for Forced Convective and Natural Circulation Reactor Flows

New reactor designs such as small modular reactors and newly proposed passive safety systems rely on natural circulation two-phase flow cooling of the reactor core under accident conditions. Without a pump to drive the flow, the circulation rate is a strong function of void fraction. Under these conditions where the flow rate, pressure drop, and heat transfer are all closely coupled through the mixture density, the accurate prediction of void fraction is pivotal. Furthermore, while these passive systems boast a more reliable cooling option, the sensitivity of the system to two-phase flow instabilities is more likely than in forced convective cooling and can result in dangerous density wave or flow excursion conditions. Improvement of one-dimensional system codes and further development of three-dimensional code capability are all important efforts in addressing these issues. The proposed work is a critical step towards providing confidence through validation of the capability of thermal-hydraulic tools to meet the emerging challenges in reactor simulation. Historically, system analysis codes develop a stiffness over time due to fine-tuning of adjustable code parameters that result in a reluctance or inability to adopt improved models. Therefore, a rigorous effort should be invested in preparation for RELAP-7 to identify required modeling improvements of constitutive relations and validation of the code applicability to the wide range of possible reactor flow conditions. Part of this validation involves the uncertainty quantification which is a critical step in the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) licensing method. BEPU allows recovery of safety margins and potentially optimizing plant performance, resulting in economic benefit for the reactor operators. Beginning with the collection of past experimental data covering prototypic LWR conditions, this document reviews three critical datasets available for the validation of system codes. The experimental methods, procedures, facilities, instrumentation, and supplementary information are consolidated to aid the validation efforts of this work and future projects. These three datasets (824 conditions) are chosen due to their wide acceptance and demonstrated application for code validation. Two experimental datasets from the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) span prototypic conditions of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). These datasets are labeled as the BFBT (BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test) and the PSBT (PWR Subchannel and Bundle Test) datasets respectively. The third dataset is taken in an internally heated annulus that is scaled based on a BWR subassembly and includes two-phase flows important to post-blowdown analysis. Together, the datasets consider the full range of pressure and mass flux expected in LWR forced convective flows from steady-state to long term cooling conditions. Recognizing the deficiency of available data under low-pressure, low-flow, a new natural circulation dataset consisting of 107 conditions is obtained. With system pressures ranging between 145 and 950 kPa, natural circulation is driven by a heat flux up to 275 kW/m2 in a 3 m long heated region of the annulus test section which is followed by a 2 m long unheated region before entering a condenser. Stable natural circulation flow rates in this facility were measured to be between 182 and 590 kg/m2-s. Pressure and temperature are measured at ten locations in the facility. In addition, measurements of void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and gas velocity are obtained at five axial locations in the annulus test section. The RELAP5-3D code demonstrates good accuracy for void fraction predictions in BFBT and PSBT benchmarks, but shows relatively large discrepancy in the annulus experiments at lower pressures. In two-phase natural circulation, large oscillations are observed in many system parameters during the simulation of 19 experiment cases which were conducted at low pressures, and the model shows good predictive performance with the remaining 88 experiment cases. However, some discrepancies in void fraction and temperature predictions are found which may require improved constitutive modeling under these low-pressure, low-flow condition. The quantified uncertainty in void fraction predictions in three forced convection benchmarks due to uncertainties in boundary conditions and geometries are relatively small, except for a few cases in the annulus experiment. The output uncertainty of the natural circulation model is quantified by considering the measurement error in boundary conditions, and it is shown that the output uncertainty ranges are relatively small for the range of conditions considered. Through this work, a clear pathway is provided for validation of RELAP7 once the code is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Roll-to-Roll Advanced Materials Manufacturing DOE Laboratory Collaboration - FY2018 Final Report

High-value R2R processing is used to support a wide range of products in applications which span many industrial business sectors. The overall R2R process technology can be considered as “mature” as the process methodology and has been in use for decades. This continuous processing technique traditionally involves deposition of material(s) onto moving webs or carriers or other continuous R2R, belt-fed, or conveyor-based processes that enable successive steps to build a final version which serves to support the deposited materials. Current process technologies, which typify “roll to roll”, include tape casting, silk-screen printing, reel-to-reel vacuum deposition/coating and R2R lithography. Products supported by R2R manufacturing include micro-electronics, electro-chromic window films, PVs, fuel cells for energy conversion, battery electrodes for energy storage, and barrier materials. Due to innovation in materials and process equipment, high-quality yet very low-cost multi-layer technologies can be manufactured on a very cost-competitive basis. To move energy-related products from high-cost niche applications to the commercial sector, a means must be available to enable manufacture of these products in a cost-competitive manner that is affordable by the general consumer. Fortunately, products such as fuel cells, thin- and mid-film PVs, batteries, electrochromic and piezoelectric films, water separation membranes, and other energy saving technologies readily lend themselves to manufacture using R2R approaches.Within the DOE EERE AMO, it was recognized that establishment of a program supported at the DOE National Laboratories, along with their immense design of materials and equipment modelling capabilities enabled with use of high-performance computing, could take advantage of available R2R infrastructure to manufacture new technologies. In FY 2016, a R2R Consortium was established and provided with initial “seed” funding to take an approach that was envisioned to be supportable by advanced manufacturing R2R processes. This collaborative approach was designed to foster identification and development of materials and processes related to R2R for clean-energy product development. Using computational and experimental capabilities by acknowledged subject matter experts within the supported National Laboratory system, this collaborative project would leverage the capabilities and expertise at each of four laboratories to further the development of an enabling high-volume cost-competitive platform technology. The collaboration team that is comprised of ORNL, ANL, NREL and LBNL, coordinating with EPB and other selected industry partners, was formed in April 2016 to initially address enhancing battery electrode performance and R2R manufacturing challenges. The research efforts were to predict and measure changes and results in electrode morphology and performance based on process condition changes; to evaluate mixed, active, particle size deposition and drying for novel electrode materials; to model various process condition changes and the resulting morphology and electrode performance; and to develop and validate NDE techniques for in-line measurement of battery electrode material properties. These efforts carried through FY 2017 and completed at the end of FY 2018.The approach was to look at compositions of materials with different particle sizes to make electrode samples using a R2R manufacturing process. The shape, size, and morphology of the materials, the chemistry of the formulation, the nature of slurries, their coating rate, the rate of drying all play a role in determining the final coating architecture, quality, and performance. A commercial cathode material was selected to make a series of cathodes and anodes by single pass, dual pass and slot die methods. Analysis of all the compiled results for this battery electrode development were that the best performing cathodes included: dual-pass electrode with large particles near the foil, mixed small and large particles, and small particles only. Whereas, the best performing anodes were with a mix of small and large graphite particles. An additional core project was added in FY 2017 to conduct studies of fuel cell materials that can be produced using R2R processes. The goal of this project is to explore, understand and optimize material and process parameters to support increased throughput, increased quality, and reduced cost for high volume production of gas-diffusion electrodes (GDEs) for PEMFCs. Project work in FY 2018 were to use a R2R process to fabricate electrodes without ionomer overlayer that can produce the equivalent mass activity as spray-coated electrodes with an ionomer overlayer. Oxygen-limiting current measurements were utilized to optimize oxygen mass transport. Alcohol-rich solvents were investigated, and results were that the alcohol and water ratio can be tuned to control ionomer distribution. Water-rich solvents produce a more dispersed ink which results in better high-current density performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Prognostic Factors and Patterns of Locoregional Failure After Surgical Resection in Patients With Cholangiocarcinoma Without Adjuvant Radiation Therapy: Optimal Field Design for Adjuvant Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To identify prognostic factors and patterns of local failure in patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), after surgical resection in the absence of adjuvant radiation, for optimal definition of target volumes encompassing the majority of local recurrences. Methods and Materials: A chart review was performed in patients who underwent resection for primary CCA (intrahepatic, hilar, and distal) between 1999 and 2014. Local failure was defined as recurrence in a theoretical reasonable postoperative radiation volume. This includes the cut surface of liver, biliary anastomosis, hilum, portal nodes, celiac nodes, peri-pancreatic nodes, gastro-hepatic nodes, and retroperitoneal nodes. Patients who received adjuvant radiation were excluded. Results: A total of 189 patients underwent surgical resection for CCA, of whom 145 patients had sufficient follow-up. Median follow-up was 41.6 months (95% confidence interval 35.4-48.7 months). Of the 145 cases, 102 were intrahepatic and 43 were hilar/distal CCA. Adjuvant chemotherapy was given in 38 cases (26%), of which 20 (54%) were gemcitabine-based. Eighty-six patients (59%) had a documented recurrence, of whom 44 (51%) had a locoregional component. Among patients who had a recurrence, 23 (27%) had a recurrence at the biliary anastomosis and/or cut liver surface. Twenty-eight patients (32.6%) had a recurrence in the regional lymph nodes, most prevalent in the portal (16.3%) and retroperitoneal (17.4%) lymph nodes. Univariable analysis identified tumor size, any vascular invasion, presence of satellites, stage/nodal status, and receipt of chemotherapy as significant prognostic factors of overall recurrence among intrahepatic patients. Presence of satellites, and stage 3/Nx status remained statistically significant in multivariable modeling. Conclusions: The areas at highest risk for locoregional recurrence after surgical resection for primary CCA are the biliary anastomosis/cut liver surface, portal lymph nodes, and retroperitoneal lymph nodes. Although these results need to be validated, adjuvant radiation should possibly cover these areas to maximize locoregional control.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Vision 2040: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Materials and Systems

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a diverse team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This report describes the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); identified gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations) which constitutes a community consensus document as it is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: 1) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), 2) community-wide survey, and 3) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per KE) consisting on average of 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. The study envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT's hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

multi-scale modeling↗

Validation of Proposed Metrics for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Analysis Standards

The objective of this work was to evaluate a set of standardized metrics proposed for characterizing a surface that has been scratched from a two-body abrasion test. This is achieved by defining a new abrasion region termed Zone of Interaction (ZOI). The ZOI describes the full surface profile of all peaks and valleys, rather than just measuring a scratch width as currently defined by the ASTM G 171 Standard. The ZOI has been found to be at least twice the size of a standard width measurement, in some cases considerably greater, indicating that at least half of the disturbed surface area would be neglected without this insight. The ZOI is used to calculate a more robust data set of volume measurements that can be used to computationally reconstruct a resultant profile for detailed analysis. Documenting additional changes to various surface roughness parameters also allows key material attributes of importance to ultimate design applications to be quantified, such as depth of penetration and final abraded surface roughness. Data are presented to show that different combinations of scratch tips and abraded materials can actually yield the same scratch width, but result in different volume displacement or removal measurements and therefore, the ZOI method is more discriminating than the ASTM method scratch width. Furthermore, by investigating the use of custom scratch tips for our specific needs, the usefulness of having an abrasion metric that can measure the displaced volume in this standardized manner, and not just by scratch width alone, is reinforced. This benefit is made apparent when a tip creates an intricate contour having multiple peaks and valleys within a single scratch. This work lays the foundation for updating scratch measurement standards to improve modeling and characterization of three-body abrasion test results.

Kobrick, Ryan L.↗

A Deep Look Into the Future of Quantitative Imaging in Oncology: A Statement of Working Principles and Proposal for Change

The adoption of enterprise digital imaging, along with the development of quantitative imaging methods and the re-emergence of statistical learning, has opened the opportunity for more personalized cancer treatments through transformative data science research. In the last 5 years, accumulating evidence has indicated that noninvasive advanced imaging analytics (i.e., radiomics) can reveal key components of tumor phenotype for multiple lesions at multiple time points over the course of treatment. Many groups using homegrown software have extracted engineered and deep quantitative features on 3-dimensional medical images for better spatial and longitudinal understanding of tumor biology and for the prediction of diverse outcomes. These developments could augment patient stratification and prognostication, buttressing emerging targeted therapeutic approaches. Unfortunately, the rapid growth in popularity of this immature scientific discipline has resulted in many early publications that miss key information or use underpowered patient data sets, without production of generalizable results. Quantitative imaging research is complex, and key principles should be followed to realize its full potential. The fields of quantitative imaging and radiomics in particular require a renewed focus on optimal study design and reporting practices, standardization, interpretability, data sharing, and clinical trials. Standardization of image acquisition, feature calculation, and statistical analysis (i.e., machine learning) are required for the field to move forward. A new data-sharing paradigm enacted among open and diverse participants (medical institutions, vendors and associations) should be embraced for faster development and comprehensive clinical validation of imaging biomarkers. In this review and critique of the field, we propose working principles and fundamental changes to the current scientific approach, with the goal of high-impact research and development of actionable prediction models that will yield more meaningful applications of precision cancer medicine.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Automated Generation and Assessment of Autonomous Systems Test Cases

This slide presentation reviews some of the issues concerning verification and validation testing of autonomous spacecraft routinely culminates in the exploration of anomalous or faulted mission-like scenarios using the work involved during the Dawn mission's tests as examples. Prioritizing which scenarios to develop usually comes down to focusing on the most vulnerable areas and ensuring the best return on investment of test time. Rules-of-thumb strategies often come into play, such as injecting applicable anomalies prior to, during, and after system state changes; or, creating cases that ensure good safety-net algorithm coverage. Although experience and judgment in test selection can lead to high levels of confidence about the majority of a system's autonomy, it's likely that important test cases are overlooked. One method to fill in potential test coverage gaps is to automatically generate and execute test cases using algorithms that ensure desirable properties about the coverage. For example, generate cases for all possible fault monitors, and across all state change boundaries. Of course, the scope of coverage is determined by the test environment capabilities, where a faster-than-real-time, high-fidelity, software-only simulation would allow the broadest coverage. Even real-time systems that can be replicated and run in parallel, and that have reliable set-up and operations features provide an excellent resource for automated testing. Making detailed predictions for the outcome of such tests can be difficult, and when algorithmic means are employed to produce hundreds or even thousands of cases, generating predicts individually is impractical, and generating predicts with tools requires executable models of the design and environment that themselves require a complete test program. Therefore, evaluating the results of large number of mission scenario tests poses special challenges. A good approach to address this problem is to automatically score the results based on a range of metrics. Although the specific means of scoring depends highly on the application, the use of formal scoring - metrics has high value in identifying and prioritizing anomalies, and in presenting an overall picture of the state of the test program. In this paper we present a case study based on automatic generation and assessment of faulted test runs for the Dawn mission, and discuss its role in optimizing the allocation of resources for completing the test program.

Testing challenges↗

Large-Scale Welding Process Simulation by GPU Parallelized Computing

The computational design of industrially relevant welded structures is extremely time consuming due to coupled physics and high nonlinearity. Previously, most welding distortion and residual stress simulations have been limited to small coupons and reduced order (from three-dimensional [3D] to two-dimensional [2D]), or inherent strain approximations were used for large structures. In this current study, an explicit finite element code based on a graphics processing unit was utilized to perform 3D transient thermomechanical simulation of structural components during welding. Laser brazing of aluminum alloy panels as representative of automotive manufacturing scenarios was simulated to predict out-of-plane distortion under different clamping conditions. The predicted deformation pattern and magnitude were validated by laser scanning data of physical assemblies. In addition, the code was used to investigate residual stresses developed during multipass arc welding of a nuclear industry pressurizer surge nozzle and subsequent welding repair where a 3D simulation was necessary. Taking the experimental data as reference, the 3D model predicted better residual stress distribution than a typical 2D asymmetrical model. Stress evolution in welding repair was also presented and discussed in this study. Furthermore, the efficient numerical model made it feasible to use integrated computational welding engineering to simulate welding processes for large-scale structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Native Natural circulation in VERA

This work seeks to introduce a native natural circulation solver to VERA's thermohydraulics capabilities. This work begins with initial investigations into the viability of such a solver by determining the fundamental equations as well as necessary inputs. The method was then implemented in the form of a Python script coupled to CTF which was compared to TRACE. Once viability of the natural circulation solver was established, it was then implemented natively in MPACT for use with previously created simplified thermohydraulics solvers. This new implementation of the native natural circulation solver in MPACT is then tested for single physics problems for both a BWR and PWR single channel model and compared to TRACE where it shows an error of about 30% for BWRs and about 15% for PWRs. The solver is additionally tested for NuScale based models where it demonstrates an error to the reported flow rate of about 10%, resulting in an eigenvalue error of only 138 pcm when comparing fixed flow rate multiphysics runs. Finally, the solver is tested in multiphysics systems for a small PWR assembly, a small BWR assembly, and a full core approximate model of the NuScale design. In these multiphysics runs, it demonstrates no impact on multiphysics convergence stability, as well as negligible impact on runtimes. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Computational fluid dynamics modeling and analysis of silica nanoparticle synthesis in a flame spray pyrolysis reactor

Flame Spray Pyrolysis (FSP) is a method for large-scale production of nanoparticles and nanoscale powders employed in a wide range of industrial applications. Particle size and morphology are complex functions of the physicochemical phenomena occurring in the FSP reactor. An extensive study of FSP-related phenomena can be utilized to develop effective strategies for achieving desired particle size/morphology and scaling up the overall yield of an FSP system. In this work, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of an FSP reactor is developed to simulate the coupling of key phenomena involved in the particle synthesis process: liquid spray breakup and evaporation, mixing, combustion, and particle formation/growth of silica nanoparticles. Herein, the particle sizes and their distributions from the CFD simulations are validated against experimental data. Subsequently, the simulations are utilized to investigate the impact of process parameters on the resultant flame dynamics and particle growth. Firstly, the CFD results show that the particle sizes are strongly correlated with the precursor concentration in the solvent. At lower precursor concentrations, the spread of the distribution is relatively insensitive to the value of the concentration. At higher concentrations, the spread is higher as the collision probability between particles is higher. Secondly, increasing the pilot flow rate increases the length of the pilot flames impacting the local ignition location of the spray flame. Lastly, it is shown that the dispersion gas flow rate strongly influences the spray flame shape. This shape can be used for control of particle growth as it helps determine the regions of high temperature and the residence time of the particles in the high temperature region enabling the design and process optimization of the FSP reactor.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The CYBER security – Competency Health and Maturity Progression (CYBER-CHAMP) model: Extending the National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education (NICE) Framework Across Organizational Security

Problem Statement: There is a pervasive talent deficit in the cybersecurity industry that prevents employers from being able to fill their open positions efficiently. A holistic approach to security is required to ensure organizations have adequate prevention and response capabilities in case of a cyberattack. Specifically, industrial control systems (ICS’s) and their operational technology (OT) components have become a constant target for cyberattacks. Research Questions: It is proposed that the NICE Framework should be extended in the following areas: 1) Include guidance regarding the job roles and competencies for both IT and OT professionals. 2) Offer step-by-step solutions, based on the work role mappings from the NICE Framework, to increase cybersecurity through employee training and education. 3) Provide a streamlined, lifecycle approach to building a cybersecurity program. Contribution: The CYBER security – Competency Health and Maturity Progression (CYBER-CHAMP©) model provides a customized solution for businesses to understand their education gaps in organizational security and target areas for improvement. Rationale: The Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity v1.1 addresses ICS but does not offer a measurement of cybersecurity maturity or clear methods to ascertain an organization’s current risk profile. In Phases 1 and 5 of the model, measurements are provided to help an organization build their current and target risk profiles. The NICE framework provides a structure for planning an IT cybersecurity workforce, but the OT aspects of cybersecurity are only briefly discussed. The model uses Phases 2-3 to examine the competencies of an organization’s workforce, which includes both IT and OT roles. Current frameworks do not offer next steps to increase an organization’s cybersecurity. During Phase 4, employees’ roles are mapped to training, education, and/or certifications from common vendors. Investigative Approach: The model provides measurements and metrics for both an organization’s status and continual improvement. This improvement methodology includes guidance for creating an overall strategic plan for security improvement via products designed to increase an organization’s operational readiness through workforce competency health. Lessons Learned: Depending on who was participating, there were contradicting answers given in Phase 1 due to different security cultures in the organization. This revelation has influenced the steps listed in the User’s Guide, where Phase 1’s first recommended step is to assemble a team that champions the facilitation and implementation of the model in the organization. During Phase 2, the discovery was made that organizations may be missing roles that are necessary to perform critical cybersecurity functions. By understanding the functional roles and competencies needed, they can contract or hire cybersecurity help to fill these gaps. Implications: Using the model, organizations can discuss quantitative measures for improvement as a business case for advancing their security program. Future research can validate and extend the present theory and model to a variety of environments. It is of interest to investigate additional security roles and knowledge domains that are used to build standardized cybersecurity curriculum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MECHANISTIC MULTIPHYSICS MODELING OF CLADDING RUPTURE IN NUCLEAR FUEL RODS DURING LOSS-OF-COOLANT ACCIDENT CONDITIONS

The Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) is a design basis accident that is included as part of the safety analysis of nuclear power plants. As the nuclear industry desires to increase the cycle length and discharge burnup of existing nuclear power plants they must demonstrate safe operation during a LOCA on high burnup fuel. During a LOCA transient on high burnup fuel rods, the rods may undergo a process known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). To permit dispersal, the cladding encapsulating the fuel must rupture with an opening size large enough to allow the fragmented fuel particles to release. Current licensing tools used by industry and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission are limited in geometric fidelity and materials that can be analyzed. These simulation tools generally employ a quasi-two-dimensional (1.5D or Layered1D) or 2D-RZ axisymmetric geometric representations exclusively. While a valid approach under some instances, there are times when important physics have an asymmetric behavior in the fuel rod. Examples include fuel fragmentation, thermal-hydraulic boundary conditions, and cladding rupture, all of which are important for LOCA analysis. As industry pursues burnup extensions it must be demonstrated that fuel dispersal can be mitigated or eliminated. To do this, an understanding of the rupture opening after cladding failure is required. This work presents the development of a model for predicting the size and location of the rupture opening in failed fuel rods during LOCA conditions using advanced modeling and simulation tools. In order to supply the rupture model with appropriate boundary conditions, improvements to fuel fragmentation, axial relocation and oxidation modeling were required. First, the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is used to mechanistically predict the number of fuel fragments that form due to material strength randomization, criteria for strength randomization, mesh density, power ramping rates and irradiation effects. These predictions with associated uncertainty were compared to empirical correlations developed for UO2 verifying that they can be used with increased confidence in subsequent axial relocation analyses. Secondly, a new first-of-its-kind Layered2D computational framework was developed that provides the ability to apply azimuthally varying boundary conditions while providing discrete layers to track fuel movement during the LOCA. An existing fuel axial relocation model developed for Layered1D was extended to work within the Layered2D framework. A large sensitivity study was performed on the initial version of the model to identify modeling parameters of particular importance, with the emissivity used for radiation after blowdown being the primary source of uncertainty. Then, a simplistic approach to incorporate mechanical degradation of the cladding due to oxidation was also developed to investigate the impact of reduced cladding thickness on predictions of the time to failure of cladding tubes. It was found that the cladding will typically rupture prior to a reduction in thickness that is sufficient to impact the rupture behavior. A model was then developed for predicting cladding rupture that transfers the cladding surface temperatures, rod internal and external pressures, fast neutron fluence, and fast neutron flux from a more detailed Layered1D, Layered2D, or 2D-RZ analysis to a 3D cladding only analysis. Comparisons of the rupture model to a few experiments indicate reasonable predictions. The rupture model was then applied to two accident tolerant fuel concepts (FeCrAl and Cr-coated Zircaloy) where it predicted that both ATF concepts would have smaller rupture openings and delayed rupture times than the standard Zircaloy-4 cladding material under identical loading conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cross-Cutting Metrology Tools for In Operando Characterization of Carrier Dynamics in Photovoltaic Devices (Final Technical Report)

Understanding the nature of recombination and its dependence on defects and interfaces is essential for engineering materials and contacts for higher V oc and photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) has conventionally been used to evaluate recombination, but not all materials are strongly emissive or otherwise suitable. Time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy is a pump – probe method that presents valuable complementary information, wherein an optical pump pulse photoexcites carriers within the absorber and the transient photoconductivity is probed with a terahertz pulse. Until now, experimental constraints have prohibited the use of terahertz probes to interrogate full device stacks, and measurements were instead made on exfoliated films or films grown on unconventional substrates. However, interfaces are critical to the behavior of photoexcited carriers in solar cells, and the substrates themselves often influence the film growth and bulk properties. Therefore, it is important to probe the behavior of PV absorbers as close as possible to their normal operating conditions. Here we have developed cross-cutting metrology that enable in operando characterization of carrier dynamics and recombination mechanisms in working PV devices. Through a combination of complementary non-contact TRTS and TRPL experiments and modeling, we have obtained key parameters including photoexcited carrier bulk lifetime and interface and back surface recombination velocities with greater precision and accuracy than can be achieved with conventional TRPL alone. By varying pulsed photoexcitation conditions, the contributions of interface and bulk recombination mechanisms can be determined. We have developed and refined this characterization approach by investigating CdTe PVs, which is a well-established technology but with significant margin for further improvements in efficiency. Results were published in Journal of Applied Physics (DOI: 10.1063/5.0064730) and Proceedings of the IEEE PVSC (DOI: 10.1109/PVSC43889.2021.9518559). After validating the approach, we have applied it to correlate recombination rates to processing conditions and material properties, including composition and defects as well as interfaces and surface treatments. Such feedback can inform processing and design choices to enable higher PV efficiency, not only for CdTe, but also CdSe x Te 1-x , CIGS, perovskites, kesterites, and future technologies. A perspective on predicting solar cell performance from terahertz spectroscopy was published in Advanced Energy Materials (DOI: 10.1002/aenm.202102776). The cross-cutting metrology tools developed here will enable determination of the locus and mechanism of performance-limiting recombination in thin film PV devices. This feedback can guide the engineering of PV devices with higher V oc and efficiency, thereby leading to reductions in levelized cost of electricity to meet the SunShot 2030 target of $0.03/kWh for utility-scale PV. Lower costs will enable rapid expansion of renewable electricity generation that is nearly free of carbon emissions. Reducing carbon emissions of the electricity sector is one of the most important solutions to climate change. The project’s specific focus on CdTe PV can benefit First Solar, the US company that is the global leader in CdTe technology, through both technology and workforce development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗

Performance Assessment of a New Gamma Spectroscopy Toolkit: Peak Doctor and the Spectral Nondestructive Assay Platform (SNAP) - 17397

High resolution gamma spectroscopy (HRGS) is a widely used technique for non-destructive characterization of nuclear materials, and assay of radioactive waste. The ability to accurately evaluate raw spectral data is an important step in producing high-quality results. A spectral analysis application known as Peak Doctor has been developed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between LANL and Pajarito Scientific Corporation (PSC). The software has undergone several years of testing and validation by the Radioactive Waste Characterization Team of the LANL Waste Management Services Group (WM-SVS). PeakDoctor is designed to work with the Spectral Nondestructive Assay Platform (SNAP{sup TM}) to provide a complete HRGS analysis engine. SNAP{sup TM} performs model specific corrections for attenuation and geometry. These applications are the major components of a new toolkit designed primarily for portable far-field non-destructive assay. Peak Doctor performs a very accurate peak fit analysis with the goal of improving upon the capabilities of existing commercially available routines. It is designed to be user-configurable and can be customized to any given type of detector and any given type of spectrum. Peak Doctor was developed to resolve many of the inherent complexities in gamma ray spectra including overlapping peaks, complex multiplet regions, large step peaks, backscatter regions and Compton edges. Unlike most spectral analysis platforms, Peak Doctor does not rely on the energy calibration and detector resolution parameters that are saved by the operator in the spectrum file. Instead, key parameters are pre-defined for individual detectors. The software fits a continuum using a series of splines between a series of junctions or 'knots'. Fitting techniques are used to join the splines together to create a near-continuous multi-element curve. Optimizing the location of the knots is one of Peak Doctor's most powerful features. The knots are initially configured using a pre-defined list and are removed or added automatically during the fitting process. Knots are also created when new features are identified such as Step Peaks and Compton Edges. The user can also manually specify knots in order to improve the continuum fit. The initial fit is improved on by removing any outlier regions (which are converted to peaks) and the continuum fitting process is repeated. At this stage, an experienced user can work interactively with the fit by manually converting peak regions to continuum or vice versa. The final step is to fit a series of peaks above the continuum based on detector parameters. Single and multiplet peaks are then processed by either the tailing (piecewise) or non-tailing (Gaussian) Levenberg Marquardt non-linear peak fitting routine depending on the user defined selection. Only a rough knowledge of the detector characteristics (energy calibration and resolution) is required for the fitting process to proceed with good accuracy. Any peaks that are missed can be manually added by the user and will also be fitted. Discontinuities in the peak / continuum fit can be rapidly identified by reviewing the 'residuals scale' plot. For waste streams that are well characterized, it is often the case that routinely encountered spectra will have similar peaks and continuum features. For these cases a handy 'One Step' method is available that proceeds in an automated fashion without user interaction. Peak Doctor has been configured with a set of default spectrum types including plutonium / transuranic waste (including Weapons Grade Pu, Heat Source Pu, Am-241, Am-243 and Np-237), depleted or enriched uranium, nuclear power plant / intermediate level waste (with fission and activation products such as Cs-137 and Co-60) as well as Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM). The user can easily add new spectrum types for specific waste streams or other types of radiological / special nuclear materials. The output from PeakDoctor (including net peak area, centroid energy and a list of minimum detectable activity levels at pre-defined regions) is used by SNAP{sup TM} to complete the data analysis process. Isotope activities are calculated using configurable template-driven geometry and attenuation correction methods. The software accounts for matrix and container wall effects, collimator / angular corrections, detector efficiency (based on calibration curves) and stand-off distance. SNAP{sup TM} uses published algorithms incorporating a series of decision points during its operation to allow the analyst to provide logical input to guide the software during the analysis of each unique spectrum. The Peak Doctor / SNAP{sup TM} toolkit has been extensively tested and validated under a variety of conditions using 'benchmark' reference spectra. Test scenarios reported include HPGe-based measurements of well characterized uranium and plutonium standards and radioactive sources with a variety of different geometries and matrix materials including surrogate drums and boxes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗