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Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decoding the proton’s gluonic density with lattice QCD-informed machine learning

We present a first machine learning-based decoding of the gluonic structure of the proton from lattice QCD using a variational autoencoder inverse mapper (VAIM). Harnessing the power of generative AI, we predict the parton distribution function (PDF) of the gluon given information on the reduced pseudo-Ioffe-time distributions (RpITDs) as calculated from an ensemble with lattice spacing a ≈ 0.09 fm and a pion mass of M π ≈ 310 MeV. The resulting gluon PDF is consistent with phenomenological global fits within uncertainties, particularly in the intermediate-to-high-x region where lattice data are most constraining. A subsequent correlation analysis confirms that the VAIM learns a meaningful latent representation, highlighting the potential of generative AI to bridge lattice QCD and phenomenological extractions within a unified analysis framework.

Gluon parton distribution function↗

Automated Gold Nanorod Spectral Morphology Analysis Pipeline

The development of a colloidal synthesis procedure to produce nanomaterials with high shape and size purity is often a time-consuming, iterative process. This is often due to quantitative uncertainties in the required reaction conditions and the time, resources, and expertise intensive characterization methods required for quantitative determination of nanomaterial size and shape. Absorption spectroscopy is often the easiest method for colloidal nanomaterial characterization. However, due to the lack of a reliable method to extract nanoparticle shapes from absorption spectroscopy, it is generally treated as a more qualitative measure for metal nanoparticles. This work demonstrates a gold nanorod (AuNR) spectral morphology analysis tool, called AuNR-SMA, which is a fast and accurate method to extract quantitative structural information from colloidal AuNR absorption spectra. To demonstrate the practical utility of this model, we apply it to three distinct applications. First, we demonstrate this model's utility as an automated analysis tool in a high-throughput AuNR synthesis procedure by generating quantitative size information from optical spectra. Second, we use the predictions generated by this model to train a machine learning model to predict the resulting AuNR size distributions under specified reaction conditions. Third, we apply this model to spectra extracted from the literature where no size distributions are reported and impute unreported quantitative information on AuNR synthesis. This approach can potentially be extended to any other nanocrystal system where absorption spectra are size dependent, and accurate numerical simulation of absorption spectra is possible. In addition, this pipeline could be integrated into automated synthesis apparatuses to provide interpretable data from simple measurements, help explore the synthesis science of nanoparticles in a rational manner, or facilitate closed-loop workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bayesian high-redshift quasar classification from optical and MID-IR photometry

We identify 885,503 type 1 quasar candidates to i≲22 using the combination of optical and mid-IR photometry. Optical photometry is taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III: Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS-III/BOSS), while mid-IR photometry comes from a combination of data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) “AllWISE” data release and several large-area Spitzer Space Telescope fields. Selection is based on a Bayesian kernel density algorithm with a training sample of 157,701 spectroscopically confirmed type 1 quasars with both optical and mid-IR data. Of the quasar candidates, 733,713 lack spectroscopic confirmation (and 305,623 are objects that we have not previously classified as photometric quasar candidates). These candidates include 7874 objects targeted as high-probability potential quasars with 3.5 3.5 than the traditional mid-IR selection “wedges” and to 2.2 3. This catalog paves the way for luminosity-dependent clustering investigations of large numbers of faint, high-redshift quasars and for further machine-learning quasar selection using Spitzer and WISE data combined with other large-area optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global minimization via classical tunneling assisted by collective force field formation

Simple elements interacting in networks can give rise to intricate emergent behaviors. Examples such as synchronization and phase transitions often apply in many contexts, as many different systems may reduce to the same effective model. Here, we demonstrate such a behavior in a model inspired by memristors. When weakly driven, the system is described by movement in an effective potential, but when strongly driven, instabilities cause escapes from local minima, which can be interpreted as an unstable tunneling mechanism. We dub this collective and nonperturbative effect a “Lyapunov force,” which steers the system toward the global minimum of the potential function, even if the full system has a constellation of equilibrium points growing exponentially with the system size. This mechanism is appealing for its physical relevance in nanoscale physics and for its possible applications in optimization, Monte Carlo schemes, and machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermopile Energy Harvesting for Subsurface Wellbore Sensors (Final Report)

Robust in situ power harvesting underlies all efforts to enable downhole autonomous sensors for real-time and long-term monitoring of CO 2 plume movement and permeance, wellbore health, and induced seismicity. This project evaluated the potential use of downhole thermopile arrays, known as thermoelectric generators (TEGs), as power sources to charge sensors for in situ real-time, long-term data capture and transmission. Real-time downhole monitoring will enable “Big Data” techniques and machine learning, using massive amounts of continuous data from embedded sensors, to quantify short- and long-term stability and safety of enhanced oil recovery and/or commercial-scale geologic CO 2 storage. This project evaluated possible placement of the TEGs at two different wellbore locations: on the outside of the casing; or on the production tubing. TEGs convert heat flux to electrical power, and in the borehole environment, would convert heat flux into or out of the borehole into power for downhole sensors. Such heat flux would be driven by pumping of cold or hot fluids into the borehole—for instance, injecting supercritical CO 2 —creating a thermal pulse that could power the downhole sensors. Hence, wireless power generation could be accomplished with in situ TEG energy harvesting. This final report summarizes the project’s efforts that accomplished the creation of a fully operational thermopile field unit, including selection of materials, laboratory benchtop experiments and thermal-hydrologic modeling for design and optimization of the field-scale power generation test unit. Finally, the report describes the field unit that has been built and presents results of performance and survivability testing. The performance and survivability testing evaluated the following: 1) downhole power generation in response to a thermal gradient produced by pumping a heated fluid down a borehole and through the field unit; and 2) component survivability and operation at elevated temperature and pressure conditions representative of field conditions. The performance and survivability testing show that TEG arrays are viable for generating ample energy to power downhole sensors, although it is important to note that developing or connecting to sensors was beyond the scope of this project. This project’s accomplishments thus traversed from a low Technical Readiness Level (TRL) on fundamental concepts of the application and modeling to TRL-5 via testing of the fully integrated field unit for power generation in relevant environments. A fully issued United States Patent covers the wellbore power harvesting technology and applications developed by this project.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Automated Segmentation of Twin Boundaries in TRISO Silicon Carbide Using Deep Neural Networks

Coated particle fuels, such as the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particle, are essential for high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) applications due to their efficiency and stability under normal and off-normal conditions. However, widespread commercialization and deployment of this technology for next-generation nuclear applications require robust quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) methods linking fabrication, properties, and performance. Of the many important metrics for TRISO QA/QC, quantification of the silicon carbide (SiC) microstructure is critical because it correlates with fission product retention during irradiation. Previous work has shown extensive twinning of the SiC microstructure, which strongly affects microstructural metrics; however, twin grain boundaries are not expected play a significant role in fission product diffusion. This report summarizes the initial development, training, and testing of a machine learning image processing algorithm to detect twin grain boundaries in a backscattered electron image, which can be removed so that microstructural metrics can be recalculated for legacy data. Further development and deployment of this model will provide automated, scalable improvement of potential QA/QC methods for the SiC layer of TRISO particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

FY25 Electric Grid Security Annual Report

Sandia’s Electric Grid Security program advances a national vision of energy dominance and accessibility, while applying our national security -emphasis on ensuring of a secure, resilient, and affordable electric system for all users. Our achievements reflect a strategic approach combining technology development; modeling, simulation, and data analytics; and partnered demonstrations and outreach to further the adoption of advanced grid and storage technologies. Our FY25 efforts leverage the strengths of our partnerships—spanning Sandia’s core science and technology competencies as well as external technology leaders—to develop the solutions today which enable the grid of tomorrow. Key accomplishments in this report that support our strategy span our technical program areas and include: • New open-source analytical tools for systems -level planning and optimization, including significant advances to the QuESt analytical environment; • Further advancement of artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhanced grid operations and planning as we rise to the challenge of new large loads; • Development of solid-state power conversion technologies and a new medium-voltage research lab; • New technologies to assess wildfire vulnerabilities and mitigate potential impacts; • Advanced applications of new cybersecurity technologies with industry partners; • Contributions to understanding the impacts of electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances on grid components; and • Digital twin development for hybrid microgrids with multiple generators, storage, and loads. This report indicates key areas of research and engagement and summarizes the impact of Sandia’s contributions through notable accomplishments, journal publications, patents, and technical conferences and presentations. It is provided with the hope that readers discover ways we can further team to create our modern grid and apply the outcomes of our efforts. The bulk of work described herein is funded by several offices within the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE), including the Office of Electricity (OE); Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER); former offices such as the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the Grid Deployment Office (GDO), the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED), and other key programs at USDOE. As we continue to state in these annual reports, the contributors to our successes are too numerous to name here, though our team wishes to express our deep gratitude to the numerous program and project sponsors at the US Department of Energy, who often function equally as technical collaborators; our many partners in industry, academia, utilities, and other national labs; and fellow researchers and business partners at Sandia whose leadership and creativity have enabled the accomplishments described herein.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transitioning from Simulation to Reality: Applying Chatter Detection Models to Real-World Machining Data

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, is a critical challenge in high-speed machining operations, affecting tool life, product surface quality, and overall process efficiency. While machine learning models trained on simulated data have shown promise in detecting chatter, their real-world applicability remains uncertain due to discrepancies between simulated and actual machining environments. The primary goal of this study is to bridge the gap between simulation-based machine learning models and real-world applications by developing and validating a Random Forest-based chatter detection system. This research focuses on improving manufacturing efficiency through reliable chatter detection by integrating Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL). The study applies a Random Forest classification model trained on over 140,000 simulated machining datasets, incorporating techniques like Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL) to adapt the model for real-world operational data. The model is validated against 1600 real-world machining datasets, achieving an accuracy of 86.1%, with strong precision and recall scores. The results demonstrate the model’s robustness and potential for practical implementation in industrial settings, highlighting challenges such as sensor noise and variability in machining conditions. This work advances the use of predictive analytics in machining processes, offering a data-driven solution to improve manufacturing efficiency through more reliable chatter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning new physics from data: A symmetrized approach

Thousands of person years have been invested in searches for new physics (NP), the majority of them motivated by theoretical considerations. Yet, no evidence of beyond the Standard Model physics has been found. This suggests that model-agnostic searches might be an important key to explore NP, and help discover unexpected phenomena which can inspire future theoretical developments. A possible strategy for such searches is identifying asymmetries between data samples that are expected to be symmetric within the Standard Model. We propose exploiting neural networks (NNs) to quickly fit and statistically test the differences between two samples. Our method is based on an earlier work, originally designed for inferring the deviations of an observed dataset from that of a much larger reference dataset. We present a symmetric formalism, generalizing the original one, avoiding fine-tuning of the NN parameters and any constraints on the relative sizes of the samples. Our formalism could be used to detect small symmetry violations, extending the discovery potential of current and future particle physics experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Segmentation of Complex Features in Atomic-Resolution Phase-Contrast Transmission Electron Microscopy Images

Phase-contrast transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a powerful tool for imaging the local atomic structure of materials. TEM has been used heavily in studies of defect structures of two-dimensional materials such as monolayer graphene due to its high dose efficiency. However, phase-contrast imaging can produce complex nonlinear contrast, even for weakly scattering samples. It is, therefore, difficult to develop fully automated analysis routines for phase-contrast TEM studies using conventional image processing tools. For automated analysis of large sample regions of graphene, one of the key problems is segmentation between the structure of interest and unwanted structures such as surface contaminant layers. In this study, we compare the performance of a conventional Bragg filtering method with a deep learning routine based on the U-Net architecture. We show that the deep learning method is more general, simpler to apply in practice, and produces more accurate and robust results than the conventional algorithm. We provide easily adaptable source code for all results in this paper and discuss potential applications for deep learning in fully automated TEM image analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

LeWRON: Learning ElectroWeak phase tRansitiON with agentic architecture

An agent to analyze electroweak phase transition. LeWRON turns a BSM model description or a reproduction target into a structured run: symbolic setup, effective-potential artifacts, finite-temperature machinery, generated model code, a scientific report, and an interactive exploration session. It keeps both machine-readable artifacts and human-readable notes, so a run can be resumed, audited, revised, and shared.

Wang, Isaac [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory↗

A deep generative model enables automated structure elucidation of novel psychoactive substances

Over the past decade, the illicit drug market has been reshaped by the proliferation of clandestinely produced designer drugs. These agents, referred to as new psychoactive substances (NPSs), are designed to mimic the physiological actions of better-known drugs of abuse while skirting drug control laws. The public health burden of NPS abuse obliges toxicological, police and customs laboratories to screen for them in law enforcement seizures and biological samples. However, the identification of emerging NPSs is challenging due to the chemical diversity of these substances and the fleeting nature of their appearance on the illicit market. Here, in this study, we present DarkNPS, a deep learning-enabled approach to automatically elucidate the structures of unidentified designer drugs using only mass spectrometric data. Our method employs a deep generative model to learn a statistical probability distribution over unobserved structures, which we term the structural prior. We show that the structural prior allows DarkNPS to elucidate the exact chemical structure of an unidentified NPS with an accuracy of 51% and a top-10 accuracy of 86%. Our generative approach has the potential to enable de novo structure elucidation for other types of small molecules that are routinely analysed by mass spectrometry.

Cheminformatics↗

Machine learning-informed and synthetic biology-enabled semi-continuous algal cultivation to unleash renewable fuel productivity

Abstract Algal biofuel is regarded as one of the ultimate solutions for renewable energy, but its commercialization is hindered by growth limitations caused by mutual shading and high harvest costs. We overcome these challenges by advancing machine learning to inform the design of a semi-continuous algal cultivation (SAC) to sustain optimal cell growth and minimize mutual shading. An aggregation-based sedimentation (ABS) strategy is then designed to achieve low-cost biomass harvesting and economical SAC. The ABS is achieved by engineering a fast-growing strain, Synechococcus elongatus UTEX 2973, to produce limonene, which increases cyanobacterial cell surface hydrophobicity and enables efficient cell aggregation and sedimentation. SAC unleashes cyanobacterial growth potential with 0.1 g/L/hour biomass productivity and 0.2 mg/L/hour limonene productivity over a sustained period in photobioreactors. Scaling-up the SAC with an outdoor pond system achieves a biomass yield of 43.3 g/m 2 /day, bringing the minimum biomass selling price down to approximately $281 per ton.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Improving Medication Regimen Recommendation for Parkinson’s Disease Using Sensor Technology

Parkinson’s disease medication treatment planning is generally based on subjective data obtained through clinical, physician-patient interactions. The Personal KinetiGraph™ (PKG) and similar wearable sensors have shown promise in enabling objective, continuous remote health monitoring for Parkinson’s patients. In this proof-of-concept study, we propose to use objective sensor data from the PKG and apply machine learning to cluster patients based on levodopa regimens and response. The resulting clusters are then used to enhance treatment planning by providing improved initial treatment estimates to supplement a physician’s initial assessment. We apply k-means clustering to a dataset of within-subject Parkinson’s medication changes—clinically assessed by the MDS-Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale-III (MDS-UPDRS-III) and the PKG sensor for movement staging. A random forest classification model was then used to predict patients’ cluster allocation based on their respective demographic information, MDS-UPDRS-III scores, and PKG time-series data. Clinically relevant clusters were partitioned by levodopa dose, medication administration frequency, and total levodopa equivalent daily dose—with the PKG providing similar symptomatic assessments to physician MDS-UPDRS-III scores. A random forest classifier trained on demographic information, MDS-UPDRS-III scores, and PKG time-series data was able to accurately classify subjects of the two most demographically similar clusters with an accuracy of 86.9%, an F1 score of 90.7%, and an AUC of 0.871. A model that relied solely on demographic information and PKG time-series data provided the next best performance with an accuracy of 83.8%, an F1 score of 88.5%, and an AUC of 0.831, hence further enabling fully remote assessments. These computational methods demonstrate the feasibility of using sensor-based data to cluster patients based on their medication responses with further potential to assist with medication recommendations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ORNL_AISD-Ex: Quantum chemical prediction of UV/Vis absorption spectra for over 10 million organic molecules

We performed calculations of electronic excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths based on the time-dependent density-functional tight-binding (TD-DFTB) method [1]. The SMILES (Simplified molecular-input line-entry system) strings of the molecules from the AISD HOMO-LUMO database [2] were converted to a 3D atomistic structure and stored in a PDB file after preliminary geometry optimization using the Merck Molecular Force Field (MMFF94) in RDKit [3,4]. The primary information stored in the PDB file archive consists of Cartesian coordinates for each atom of the molecule in their 3D location in space, along with summary information about the structure, sequence, and experiment. We then performed molecular geometry optimization using the density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) method [5] in the electronic ground state, followed by single-point excited states calculations, as described below. We note that, since RDKit employs a random choice for the generation of molecular conformers, the molecular geometries obtained in this dataset could be different from the ones that were generated when the AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset was generated. The computed excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths can be converted to predict UV/Vis absorption spectra, where excitation energies correspond to absorption peak positions, and oscillator strengths are a good measure of the probability of absorption of visible or UV light in transitions between electronic ground and excited states. The conversion of SMILES strings to 3D Cartesian coordinates of fully DFTB-optimized molecules was successful for 10,502,904 out of 10,502,917 molecules. For these molecules, both geometry optimizations and excited states calculations were successful. The DFTB calculations did not complete for 13 molecules of the original AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset. We still provide information about the geometry of these molecules. The molecules are diverse for chemical compositions (which span 5 non-hydrogen elements: oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, fluorine, sulfur) and molecular size (the smallest molecule contains 5 non-hydrogen atoms, and the largest molecule contains 71 non-hydrogen atoms). The DFTB method [5] is an approximation to density functional theory (DFT), utilizing a minimal basis set in conjunction with a two-center approximation to the electronic Hamiltonian and overlap matrix elements. The DFTB total energy is the sum of an electronic and a repulsive energy contribution, and their calculation requires optimized electronic parameters and diatomic repulsive potential energy functions. All DFTB calculations were performed using the DFTB+ code [6] (version 21.2) and the wrapper for DFTB+ in the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) (version 3.22.1) [7], which performed an internal conversion of Cartesian coordinates from PDB to the .gen file format. For the geometry optimizations on the electronic ground state potential energy surface of the molecules, we have chosen the third-order DFTB (DFTB3) method [5c] and employed the matching 3ob set of electronic parameters and repulsive potentials [8]. The empirical γ-damping for hydrogen bond correction, and Grimme's D3 empirical dispersion correction with Becke-Johnson damping (D3(BJ)) [9] dispersion correction was included to improve the description of non-covalent interactions. For excited states single-point energy calculations, we employed the TD-DFTB method in conjunction with the DFTB2 method [5b] and the matching mio [5b,10] and halorg [11] parameter sets. We opted to request the simultaneous calculation of 50 excited states for singlet transition to investigate sufficient number of excited states, based on linear response theory using the Casida equation [Ref: T. A. Niehaus, S. Suhai, F. Della Sala, P Lugli, M. Elstner, G. Seifert, and Th. Frauenheim. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 63:085108, 2001] and the ARPACK diagonalizer [R. B. Lehoucq, D. C. Sorensen, and C. Yang. Arpack users guide: Solution of large-scale eigenvalue problems by implicitly restarted arnoldi methods, 1997. 46, 51]. The dataset contains 1001 tar.gz files. Tar files are named as “ornl_aisd_ex_1.tar.gz†through “ornl_aisd_ex_1000.tar.gzâ€. Additionally, the 13 failed molecules are in “ornl_aisd_ex_unprocessed.tar.gzâ€. Except for the tar files listed below, each tar file contains 10,500 molecules. Tar files numbered 34, 121, 128, 352, 360, 429, 495, 509, 518, 627, 676, 668, and 862 contain 10,499 molecules each. The last tar file numbered 1000 contains 13,417 molecules. The total size of the uncompressed dataset is over 283 Gigabytes. The code for calculating the electronic excitation energies and statistical analysis of the dataset is provided at the following GitLab repository: https://github.com/ORNL/Analysis-of-Large-Scale-Molecular-Datasets-with-Python Calculating the UV spectrum of a molecule requires performing 3 main operations: 1. Converting the smiles string representation of a molecule into a geometric structure where each atom is assigned XYZ coordinates. The geometric structure is written to the file smiles.pdb. 2. Using smiles.pdb to compute the relaxed geometry of the molecule, which corresponds with the position of the atoms at the position of equilibrium at the ground state. This generates the files band.out, detailed.out, and geo_end.gen. 3. Using geo_end.gen to calculate the UV spectrum of the molecule which is written into the file EXC.DAT. Every molecule in the dataset has its own directory. The files contained in each molecule directory are as follows: 1. geo_end.gen 2. detailed.out 3. band.out 4. EXC.DAT 5. smiles.pdb REFERENCES [1] Niehaus, T. A.; Suhai, S.; Della Salla, F.; Lugli, P.; Elstner, M.; Seifert, G.; Frauenheim, Th. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 2001, 63, 085108/1-9. [2] Blanchard, A.; Gounley, J.; Metha, K.; Yoo, P.; Irle, S. AISD HOMO-LUMO. DOI: 10.13139/ORNLNCCS/1869409 [3] RDKit: Cheminformatics and Machine Learning Software. 2013, [http://www.rdkit.org] [4] Tosco, P.; Stiefl, N. and Landrum, G. Bringing the MMFF force field to the RDKit: implementation and validation. J Cheminform. 2014, 6, 1–4. [5] a) Porezag, D.; Frauenheim, T.; Kohler, T.; Seifert, G.; Kaschner, Construction of tight-binding-like potentials on the basis of density-functional theory: Application to carbon, R. Phys. Rev. B 1995, 51, 12947-12957; b) Elstner, M.; Porezag, D.; Jungnickel, G.; Elsner, J.; Haugk, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Seifert, G.; Phys. Rev. B 1998, 58, 7260-7268; c) Gaus, M.; Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. DFTB3: Extension of the Self-Consistent-Charge Density-Functional Tight-Binding Method (SCC-DFTB), J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2011, 7, 931-948; d) Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. Density functional tight binding: values of semi-empirical methods in an ab initio era, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 2014, 16, 14368-14377. [6] Hourahine, B. et al. DFTB+, a software package for efficient approximate density functional theory based atomistic simulations, J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 152, 124101/1-19. [7] Larsen, A. H. et al. The atomic simulation environment—a Python library for working with atoms. J. Phys.: Cond. Matter 2017, 29, 273002. [8] Kubillus, M.; Kubar, T.; Gaus, M.; Rezac, J.; Elstner, M. Parameterization of the DFTB3 Method for Br, Ca, Cl, F, I, K, and Na in Organic and Biological Systems, J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2015, 11, 332-342. [9] Brandenburg, J. G.; Grimme, S. Accurate Modeling of Organic Molecular Crystals by Dispersion-Corrected Density Functional Tight Binding (DFTB), J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2014, 5, 1785−1789. [10] a) Niehaus, T. A.; Elstner, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S. Application of an approximate density-functional method to sulfur containing compounds. J. Mol. Struct.: THEOCHEM 2001, 541, 185-94; b) Elstner, M.; Hobza, P.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Kaxiras, E. Hydrogen bonding and stacking interactions of nucleic acid base pairs: A density-functional-theory based treatment. J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 5149-55. [11] Kubar, T.; Bodrog, Z.; Gaus, M.; Köhler, C.; Aradi, B.; Frauenheim, Th.; Elstner, M. Parametrization of the SCC-DFTB Method for Halogens. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2013, 9, 2939-49.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reducing ridesourcing empty vehicle travel with future travel demand prediction

Ridesourcing services provide alternative mobility options in several cities. Their market share has grown exponentially due to the convenience they provide. The use of such services may be associated with car-light or car-free lifestyles. However, there are growing concerns regarding their impact on urban transportation operations performance due to empty, unproductive miles driven without a passenger (commonly referred to as deadheading). This paper is motivated by the potential to reduce deadhead mileage of ridesourcing trips by providing drivers with information on future ridesourcing trip demand. Future demand information enables the driver to wait in place for the next rider’s request without cruising around and contributing to congestion. A machine learning model is employed to predict hourly and 10-minute future interval travel demand for ridesourcing at a given location. Using future demand information, we propose algorithms to (i) assign drivers to act on received demand information by waiting in place for the next rider, and (ii) match these drivers with riders to minimize deadheading distance. Real-world data from ridesourcing providers in Austin, TX (RideAustin) and Chengdu, China (DiDi Chuxing) are leveraged. Results show that this process achieves 68%–82% and 53%–60% reduction of trip-level deadheading miles for the RideAustin and DiDi Chuxing sample operations respectively, under the assumption of unconstrained availability of short-term parking. Deadheading savings increase slightly as the maximum tolerable waiting time for the driver increases. Further, it is observed that significant deadhead savings per trip are possible, even when a small percent of the ridesourcing driver pool is provided with future ridesourcing demand information.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗