DOE OSTI2011
Current GHG-mitigating regimes, whether internationally agreed or self-imposed, rely on the aggregation of self-reported data, with limited checks for consistency and accuracy, for monitoring. As nations commit to more stringent GHG emissions-mitigation actions and as economic rewards or penalties are attached to emission levels, self-reported data will require independent confirmation that they are accurate and reliable, if they are to provide the basis for critical choices and actions that may be required. Supporting emissions-mitigation efforts and agreements, as well as monitoring energy- and fossil-fuel intensive national and global activities would be best achieved by a process of: (1) monitoring of emissions and emission-mitigation actions, based, in part, on, (2) (self-) reporting of pertinent bottom-up inventory data, (3) verification that reported data derive from and are consistent with agreed-upon processes and procedures, and (4) validation that reported emissions and emissions-mitigation action data are correct, based on independent measurements (top-down) derived from a suite of sensors in space, air, land, and, possibly, sea, used to deduce and attribute anthropogenic emissions. These data would be assessed and used to deduce and attribute measured GHG concentrations to anthropogenic emissions, attributed geographically and, to the extent possible, by economic sector. The validation element is needed to provide independent assurance that emissions are in accord with reported values, and should be considered as an important addition to the accepted MRV process, leading to a MRV&V process. This study and report focus on attributes of a greenhouse-gas information system (GHGIS) needed to support MRV&V needs. These needs set the function of such a system apart from scientific/research monitoring of GHGs and carbon-cycle systems, and include (not exclusively): the need for a GHGIS that is operational, as required for decision-support; the need for a system that meets specifications derived from imposed requirements; the need for rigorous calibration, verification, and validation (CV&V) standards, processes, and records for all measurement and modeling/data-inversion data; the need to develop and adopt an uncertainty-quantification (UQ) regimen for all measurement and modeling data; and the requirement that GHGIS products can be subjected to third-party questioning and scientific scrutiny. This report examines and assesses presently available capabilities that could contribute to a future GHGIS. These capabilities include sensors and measurement technologies; data analysis and data uncertainty quantification (UQ) practices and methods; and model-based data-inversion practices, methods, and their associated UQ. The report further examines the need for traceable calibration, verification, and validation processes and attached metadata; differences between present science-/research-oriented needs and those that would be required for an operational GHGIS; the development, operation, and maintenance of a GHGIS missions-operations center (GMOC); and the complex systems engineering and integration that would be required to develop, operate, and evolve a future GHGIS. Present monitoring systems would be heavily relied on in any GHGIS implementation at the outset and would likely continue to provide valuable future contributions to GHGIS. However, present monitoring systems were developed to serve science/research purposes. This study concludes that no component or capability presently available is at the level of technological maturity and readiness required for implementation in an operational GHGIS today. However, purpose-designed and -built components could be developed and implemented in support of a future GHGIS. The study concludes that it is possible to develop and provide a capability-driven prototype GHGIS, as part of a Phase-1 effort, within three years from project-funding start, that would make use of and integrate existing sensing and system capabilities. As part of a Phase-2 effort, a requirements-driven, operational GHGIS could be developed, within ten years from project funding start. That schedule is driven by the development and long lead-times for some system components. The two efforts would be focused on different deliverables but could commence concurrently, to save time, if that was deemed desirable. We note that, developing and supporting an operational GHGIS will require a new approach and management, sustained funding and other support, as well as technical advances and development of purpose-built components that meet the requisite specifications. A functioning GHGIS will provide the basis for reasoned choices on how best to respond to rising GHG levels, especially when proposed U.S. actions are compared with or conditioned on the actions of other nations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗