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DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

O3BNN: An Out-Of-Order Architecture for High-Performance Binarized Neural Network Inference with Fine-Grained Pruning

In this work, we demonstrate that the highly-condensed BNN model can be shrunk significantly further by dynamically pruning irregular redundant edges. Based on two new observations on BNN-specific properties, our out-of-order (OoO) architecture – O3BNN, can curtail remaining edge evaluation in cases where the binary output of a neuron can be determined early. Similar to Instruction-Level-Parallelism (ILP), these fine-grained, irregular, runtime pruning opportunities are traditionally presumed to be di cult to exploit. We evaluate our design on an FPGA platform using three well-known networks, including VggNet-16, AlexNet for ImageNet, and a VGG-like network for Cifar-10. Results show that our out-of-order approach can prune 27%, 16%, and 42% of the operations for the three networks respectively, without any accuracy loss, leading to at least 1.7×, 1.5×, and 2.1× speedups over state-of-the-art implementations on FPGA/GPU/CPU BNN implementations. Our approach is inference runtime pruning, so no retrain or fine-tuning is needed. We demonstrate our design on an FPGA platform. However, this is only for showcasing the method; the approach does not rely on any FPGA-specific features and can thus be adopted by other devices as well.

Geng, Tong↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Condensation–coalescence Cloud Model for Exoplanetary Atmospheres: Formulation and Test Applications to Terrestrial and Jovian Clouds

A number of transiting exoplanets have featureless transmission spectra that might suggest the presence of clouds at high altitudes. A realistic cloud model is necessary to understand the atmospheric conditions under which such high-altitude clouds can form. In this study, we present a new cloud model that takes into account the microphysics of both condensation and coalescence. Our model provides the vertical profiles of the size and density of cloud and rain particles in an updraft for a given set of physical parameters, including the updraft velocity and the number density of cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs). We test our model by comparing with observations of trade-wind cumuli on Earth and ammonia ice clouds in Jupiter. For trade-wind cumuli, the model including both condensation and coalescence gives predictions that are consistent with observations, while the model including only condensation overestimates the mass density of cloud droplets by up to an order of magnitude. For Jovian ammonia clouds, the condensation–coalescence model simultaneously reproduces the effective particle radius, cloud optical thickness, and cloud geometric thickness inferred from Voyager observations if the updraft velocity and CCN number density are taken to be consistent with the results of moist convection simulations and Galileo probe measurements, respectively. These results suggest that the coalescence of condensate particles is important not only in terrestrial water clouds but also in Jovian ice clouds. Our model will be useful to understand how the dynamics, compositions, and nucleation processes in exoplanetary atmospheres affect the vertical extent and optical thickness of exoplanetary clouds via cloud microphysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

X-ray spectroscopy of planar laser-plasma interaction experiments at the National Ignition Facility

X-ray spectroscopy has been newly used to diagnose electron temperatures in planar-geometry experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) designed to study laser-plasma interactions at plasma conditions relevant to direct-drive ignition. These experiments used a buried co-mixed Mn/Co microstrip in a CH ablator in experiments that generated long scale-length plasmas susceptible to stimulated Raman scattering (SRS). Time-resolved Mn and Co K-shell spectra, diagnosed using the NIF x-ray spectrometer, were analyzed by fi tting to synthetic spectra based on a detailed atomic model of emission from the microstrip. The electron temperature at the time when the microstrip passes through the quarter-critical density surface, the key region for the development of SRS, was inferred to be around 2 to 3 keV. These measurements constrain 2-D DRACO radiation-hydrodynamics modeling of the planar experiments, important for determining plasma conditions pertinent to SRS, and demonstrate that this platform approaches direct-drive ignition-relevant conditions. The modeling is also assessed by a direct comparison of measured spectra to modeled spectra generated by DRACO in conjunction with the atomic physics postprocessor code SPECT3D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report

Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

The effects of QCD equation of state on the relic density of WIMP dark matter

Weakly Interactive Massive Particles (WIMPs) are the most widely studied candidate particles forming the cold dark matter (CDM) whose existence can be inferred from a wealth of astrophysical and cosmological observations. In the framework of the minimal cosmological model detailed measurements on the cosmic microwave background by the PLANCK collaboration fix the scaled CDM relic density to Ω{sub c}h{sup 2}=0.1193±0.0014, with an error of less than 1.5%. In order to fully exploit this observational precision, theoretical calculations should have a comparable or smaller error. In this paper we use recent lattice QCD calculations to improve the description of the thermal plasma. This affects the predicted relic density of “thermal WIMPs”, which once were in chemical equilibrium with Standard Model particles. For WIMP masses between 3 and 15 GeV, where QCD effects are most important, our predictions differ from earlier results by up to 9% (12%) for pure S-wave (P-wave) annihilation. We use these results to compute the thermally averaged WIMP annihilation cross section that reproduces the correct CDM relic density, for WIMP masses between 0.1 GeV and 10 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Saccharomycotina yeasts defy long-standing macroecological patterns

The Saccharomycotina yeasts (“yeasts” hereafter) are a fungal clade of scientific, economic, and medical significance. Yeasts are highly ecologically diverse, found across a broad range of environments in every biome and continent on earth; however, little is known about what rules govern the macroecology of yeast species and their range limits in the wild. Here, we trained machine learning models on 12,816 terrestrial occurrence records and 96 environmental variables to infer global distribution maps at ~1 km2 resolution for 186 yeast species (~15% of described species from 75% of orders) and to test environmental drivers of yeast biogeography and macroecology. We found that predicted yeast diversity hotspots occur in mixed montane forests in temperate climates. Diversity in vegetation type and topography were some of the greatest predictors of yeast species richness, suggesting that microhabitats and environmental clines are key to yeast diversity. We further found that range limits in yeasts are significantly influenced by carbon niche breadth and range overlap with other yeast species, with carbon specialists and species in high-diversity environments exhibiting reduced geographic ranges. Finally, yeasts contravene many long-standing macroecological principles, including the latitudinal diversity gradient, temperature-dependent species richness, and a positive relationship between latitude and range size (Rapoport’s rule). These results unveil how the environment governs the global diversity and distribution of species in the yeast subphylum. These high-resolution models of yeast species distributions will facilitate the prediction of economically relevant and emerging pathogenic species under current and future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative investigation of the internal flow and near-nozzle flow of an eight-hole gasoline injector (Engine Combustion Network Spray G)

The internal details of fuel injectors have a profound impact on the emissions from gasoline direct injection engines. However, the impact of injector design features is not currently understood, due to the difficulty in observing and modeling internal injector flows. Gasoline direct injection flows involve moving geometry, flash boiling, and high levels of turbulent two-phase mixing. In order to better simulate these injectors, five different modeling approaches have been employed to study the engine combustion network Spray G injector. Here these simulation results have been compared to experimental measurements obtained, among other techniques, with X-ray diagnostics, allowing the predictions to be evaluated and critiqued. The ability of the models to predict mass flow rate through the injector is confirmed, but other features of the predictions vary in their accuracy. The prediction of plume width and fuel mass distribution varies widely, with volume-of-fluid tending to overly concentrate the fuel. All the simulations, however, seem to struggle with predicting fuel dispersion and by inference, jet velocity. This shortcoming of the predictions suggests a need to improve Eulerian modeling of dense fuel jets.

ECN↗

DOE OSTI2019

Prediction and Inference of Multi-scale Electrical Properties of Geomaterials

Motivated by the need for improved forward modeling and inversion capabilities of geophysical response in geologic settings whose fine--scale features demand accountability, this project describes two novel approaches which advance the current state of the art. First is a hierarchical material properties representation for finite element analysis whereby material properties can be prescribed on volumetric elements, in addition to their facets and edges. Hence, thin or fine--scaled features can be economically represented by small numbers of connected edges or facets, rather than 10's of millions of very small volumetric elements. Examples of this approach are drawn from oilfield and near--surface geophysics where, for example, electrostatic response of metallic infastructure or fracture swarms is easily calculable on a laptop computer with an estimated reduction in resource allocation by 4 orders of magnitude over traditional methods. Second is a first-ever solution method for the space--fractional Helmholtz equation in geophysical electromagnetics, accompanied by newly--found magnetotelluric evidence supporting a fractional calculus representation of multi-scale geomaterials. Whereas these two achievements are significant in themselves, a clear understanding the intermediate length scale where these two endmember viewpoints must converge remains unresolved and is a natural direction for future research. Additionally, an explicit mapping from a known multi-scale geomaterial model to its equivalent fractional calculus representation proved beyond the scope of the present research and, similarly, remains fertile ground for future exploration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Characterization of low-mass, wide-separation substellar companions to stars in upper SCORPIUS: Near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy

We present new 0.9–2.45 μm spectroscopy (R∼1000 ), and Y, J, H, K{sub s}, L{sup ′} photometry, obtained at Gemini North, of three low-mass brown dwarf companions on wide orbits around young stars of the Upper Scorpius OB association: HIP 78530 B, [PGZ 2001] J161031.9-191305 B, and GSC 06214-00210 B. We use these data to assess the companions’ spectral type, temperature, surface gravity, and mass, as well as the ability of the BT-SETTL and Drift-Phoenix atmosphere models to reproduce the spectral features of young substellar objects. For completeness, we also analyze the archival spectroscopy and photometry of the Upper Scorpius planetary mass companion 1RXS J160929.1-210524 b. Based on a comparison with model spectra we find that the companions, in the above order, have effective temperatures of 2700 ± 100, 2500 ± 200, 2300 ± 100, and 1700 ± 100 K. These temperatures are consistent with our inferred spectral types, respectively M7 β, M9 γ, M9 γ, and L4 γ, obtained from spectral indices and comparisons with templates. From bolometric luminosities estimated from atmosphere model spectra adjusted to our photometry, and using evolution models at 5–10 Myr, we estimate masses of 21–25, 28–70, 14–17, and 7–12 M{sub Jup}, respectively. [PGZ 2001] J161031.9-191305 B appears significantly overluminous for its inferred temperature, which explains its higher mass estimate. Synthetic spectra based on the BT-Settl and Drift-Phoenix atmosphere models generally offer a good fit to our observed spectra, although our analysis has highlighted a few problems. For example, the best fits in the individual near-infrared bands occur at different model temperatures. Also, temperature estimates based on a comparison of the broadband magnitudes and colors of the companions to synthetic magnitudes from the models are systematically lower than the temperature estimates based on a comparison with synthetic spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonparametric extensions of nuclear equations of state: Probing the breakdown scale of relativistic mean-field theory

Phenomenological calculations of the properties of dense matter, such as relativistic mean-field theories, represent a pathway to predicting the microscopic and macroscopic properties of neutron stars. However, such theories do not generically have well-controlled uncertainties and may break down within neutron stars. To faithfully represent the uncertainty in this breakdown scale, we develop a hybrid representation of the dense-matter equation of state, which assumes the form of a relativistic mean-field theory at low densities, while remaining agnostic to any nuclear theory at high densities. To achieve this, we use a nonparametric equation of state model to incorporate the correlations of the underlying relativistic mean-field theory equation of state at low pressures and transition to more flexible correlations above some chosen pressure scale. We perform astrophysical inference under various choices of the transition pressure between the theory-informed and theory-agnostic models. Here, we further study whether the chosen relativistic mean-field theory breaks down above some particular pressure and find no such evidence. Using simulated data for future astrophysical observations at about two-to-three times the precision of current constraints, we show that our method can identify the breakdown pressure associated with a potential strong phase transition.

Equations of state of nuclear matter↗

DOE OSTI2015

Single-Genome Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus in Donor-Recipient Pairs Distinguishes Modes and Models of Virus Transmission and Early Diversification

Despite the recent development of highly effective anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and development of an effective vaccine. A precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) HCV genomes that lead to productive clinical infection could play a critical role in vaccine research, as it has for HIV-1. However, the replication schema of these two RNA viruses differ substantially, as do viral responses to innate and adaptive host defenses. These differences raise questions as to the certainty of T/F HCV genome inferences, particularly in cases where multiple closely related sequence lineages have been observed. To clarify these issues and distinguish between competing models of early HCV diversification, we examined seven cases of acute HCV infection in humans and chimpanzees, including three examples of virus transmission between linked donors and recipients. Using single-genome sequencing (SGS) of plasma vRNA, we found that inferred T/F sequences in recipients were identical to viral sequences in their respective donors. Early in infection, HCV genomes generally evolved according to a simple model of random evolution where the coalescent corresponded to the T/F sequence. Closely related sequence lineages could be explained by high multiplicity infection from a donor whose viral sequences had undergone a pretransmission bottleneck due to treatment, immune selection, or recent infection. These findings validate SGS, together with mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis, as a novel strategy to infer T/F HCV genome sequences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained neural ordinary differential equations approach for robust learning of stiff chemical kinetics

The high computational cost associated with solving for detailed chemistry poses a significant challenge for predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of turbulent reacting flows. While deep learning techniques have been explored to develop faster surrogate models, they often fail to integrate reliably with CFD solvers. This instability arises because traditional deep learning approaches optimize for training error without ensuring compatibility with ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers, resulting in accumulation of errors over time. Recently, neuralODE (NODE) based approaches have been shown to be a promising technique to emulate and accelerate detailed chemistry computations. Here, in the present work, we extend this NODE framework for stiff chemical kinetics by incorporating mass conservation constraints directly into the loss function during training. This ensures that the total mass as well as the individual elemental species masses are conserved in an a-posteriori manner. Proof-of-concept studies are performed with the novel physics-constrained NODE (PC-NODE) approach for homogeneous autoignition of hydrogen-air mixture over a range of composition and thermodynamic conditions. It is demonstrated that the PC-NODE framework not only improves the physical consistency of the resulting data-driven model with respect to mass conservation criteria, but also improves training efficiency. PC-NODE is shown to achieve 2–100× speedup relative to the hydrogen-air detailed chemical mechanism depending on the type of the ODE solver (implicit or explicit) used during autoregressive inference tests. Lastly, a-posteriori studies are performed wherein the trained PC-NODE model is coupled with a CFD solver. It is shown that higher accuracy is achieved with PC-NODE relative to the purely data-driven NODE approach. Moreover, PC-NODE also exhibits robustness and generalizability to unseen initial conditions from within (interpolative capability) as well as outside (extrapolative capability) the training regime.

computational combustion↗

DOE OSTI2015

Quantifying and Reducing Curve-Fitting Uncertainty in Isc: Preprint

Current-voltage (I-V) curve measurements of photovoltaic (PV) devices are used to determine performance parameters and to establish traceable calibration chains. Measurement standards specify localized curve fitting methods, e.g., straight-line interpolation/extrapolation of the I-V curve points near short-circuit current, Isc. By considering such fits as statistical linear regressions, uncertainties in the performance parameters are readily quantified. However, the legitimacy of such a computed uncertainty requires that the model be a valid (local) representation of the I-V curve and that the noise be sufficiently well characterized. Using more data points often has the advantage of lowering the uncertainty. However, more data points can make the uncertainty in the fit arbitrarily small, and this fit uncertainty misses the dominant residual uncertainty due to so-called model discrepancy. Using objective Bayesian linear regression for straight-line fits for Isc, we investigate an evidence-based method to automatically choose data windows of I-V points with reduced model discrepancy. We also investigate noise effects. Uncertainties, aligned with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), are quantified throughout.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Observations indicate shrubs are expanding across the Arctic tundra, mainly on hillslopes and primarily in response to climate warming. However, the impact topography exerts on hydrology, nutrient dynamics, and plant growth can make untangling the mechanisms behind shrub expansion difficult. We examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Modeled biomass of the dominant plant functional types agreed well with field measurements (R 2 = 0.89) and accurately represented shrub expansion over the past 30 years inferred from satellite observations. In the well-drained crest position, canopy water potential and plant nitrogen (N) uptake was modeled to be low from plant and microbial water stress. Intermediate soil water content in the mid-slope position enhanced mineralization and plant N uptake, increasing shrub biomass. The deciduous shrub growth in the mid-slope position was further enhanced by symbiotic N 2 fixation primed by increased root carbon allocation. The gentle slope in the poorly drained lower-slope position resulted in saturated soil conditions that reduced soil O 2 concentrations, leading to lower root O 2 uptake and lower nutrient uptake and plant biomass. Additionally, a simulation that removed topographical interconnectivity between grid cells resulted in (1) a 28% underestimate of mean shrub biomass and (2) over or underestimated shrub productivity at the various hillslope positions. Our results indicate that land models need to account for hillslope-scale coupled surface and subsurface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

A NICER View of PSR J0030+0451: Millisecond Pulsar Parameter Estimation

Here, we report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSR J0030+0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray spectral-timing event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar's surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass M and equatorial radius R eq are, respectively, ${1.34}_{-0.16}^{+0.15}\,{M}_{\odot }$ and ${12.71}_{-1.19}^{+1.14}\,\mathrm{km}$, while the compactness ${GM}/{R}_{\mathrm{eq}}{c}^{2}={0.156}_{-0.010}^{+0.008}$ is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the 16% and 84% quantiles in marginal posterior mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pulse profile modelling of thermonuclear burst oscillations – II. Handling variability

ABSTRACT Pulse profile modelling is a relativistic ray-tracing technique that can be used to infer masses, radii, and geometric parameters of neutron stars. In a previous study, we looked at the performance of this technique when applied to thermonuclear burst oscillations from accreting neutron stars. That study showed that ignoring the variability associated with burst oscillation sources resulted in significant biases in the inferred mass and radius, particularly for the high count rates that are nominally required to obtain meaningful constraints. In this follow-on study, we show that the bias can be mitigated by slicing the bursts into shorter segments where variability can be neglected, and jointly fitting the segments. Using this approach, the systematic uncertainties on the mass and radius are brought within the range of the statistical uncertainty. With about 106 source counts, this yields uncertainties of approximately 10 per cent for both the mass and radius. However, this modelling strategy requires substantial computational resources. We also confirm that the posterior distributions of the mass and radius obtained from multiple bursts of the same source can be merged to produce outcomes comparable to that of a single burst with an equivalent total number of counts.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗