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The Sun to the Earth - and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics

The sun is the source of energy for life on earth and is the strongest modulator of the human physical environment. In fact, the Sun's influence extends throughout the solar system, both through photons, which provide heat, light, and ionization, and through the continuous outflow of a magnetized, supersonic ionized gas known as the solar wind. While the accomplishments of the past decade have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. The Sun to the Earth--and Beyond organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond. While the accomplishments of the past decades have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. This report organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond: Challenge 1: Understanding the structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the origin of the solar cycle, the causes of solar activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona. Challenge 2: Understanding heliospheric structure, the distribution of magnetic fields and matter throughout the solar system, and the interaction of the solar atmosphere with the local interstellar medium. Challenge 3: Understanding the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies and their dynamical response to external and internal influences. Challenge 4: Understanding the basic physical principles manifest in processes observed in solar and space plasmas. Challenge 5: Developing a near-real-time predictive capability for understanding and quantifying the impact on human activities of dynamical processes at the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. This report summarizes the state of knowledge about the total heliospheric system, poses key scientific questions for further research, and presents an integrated research strategy, with prioritized initiatives, for the next decade. The recommended strategy embraces both basic research programs and targeted basic research activities that will enhance knowledge and prediction of space weather effects on Earth. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the Sun, the heliosphere, and planetary magnetospheres and ionospheres as astrophysical objects and as laboratories for the investigation of fundamental plasma physics phenomena.

Source record↗

High Spectral Resolution, High Cadence, Imaging X-Ray Microcalorimeters for Solar Physics

High spectral resolution, high cadence, imaging x-ray spectroscopy has the potential to revolutionize the study of the solar corona. To that end we have been developing transition-edge-sensor (TES) based x-ray micro calorimeter arrays for future solar physics missions where imaging and high energy resolution spectroscopy will enable previously impossible studies of the dynamics and energetics of the solar corona. The characteristics of these x-ray microcalorimeters are significantly different from conventional micro calorimeters developed for astrophysics because they need to accommodate much higher count rates (300-1000 cps) while maintaining high energy resolution of less than 4 eV FWHM in the X-ray energy band of 0.2-10 keV. The other main difference is a smaller pixel size (less than 75 x 75 square microns) than is typical for x-ray micro calorimeters in order to provide angular resolution less than 1 arcsecond. We have achieved at energy resolution of 2.15 eV at 6 keV in a pixel with a 12 x 12 square micron TES sensor and 34 x 34 x 9.1 micron gold absorber, and a resolution of 2.30 eV at 6 keV in a pixel with a 35 x 35 micron TES and a 57 x 57 x 9.1 micron gold absorber. This performance has been achieved in pixels that are fabricated directly onto solid substrates, ie. they are not supported by silicon nitride membranes. We present the results from these detectors, the expected performance at high count-rates, and prospects for the use of this technology for future Solar missions.

Bandler, Simon R.↗

Magnetic Solitons

Solitons and localized dissipative structures are the most natural and well-observed manifestations of nonlinear dynamics of energetically open systems at all scales ranging from the quantum structures to astrophysical objects. Depending on the system parameters and an adequate scaling, these phenomena are successfully described by the equations of Korteweg de Vries, Gross–Pitaevskiy, Kadomtsev–Petviashvili, Ginzburg–Landau, and their modifications. In this paper, we shall discuss formation and dynamics of magnetic solitons observed in the solar atmosphere. In particular, we focus on the highly dynamic environment of sunspot areas vastly populated by magnetic solitons. We discuss the properties of these solitons based on their observed signatures, along with their role in dynamics of overlying corona. The results of quantitative analysis of observational data based on the MHD theory of solitary structures are presented.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

What Can Be Learned from X-Ray Spectroscopy Concerning Hot Gas in the Local Bubble and Charge Exchange Processes?

Both solar wind charge exchange emission and diffuse thermal emission from the Local Bubble are strongly dominated in the soft X-ray band by lines from highly ionized elements. While both processes share many of the same lines, the spectra should differ significantly due to the different production mechanisms, abundances, and ionization states. Despite their distinct spectral signatures, current and past observatories have lacked the spectral resolution to adequately distinguish between the two sources. High-resolution X-ray spectroscopy instrumentation proposed for future missions has the potential to answer fundamental questions such as whether there is any hot plasma in the Local Hot Bubble, and if so, what are the abundances of the emitting plasma and whether the plasma is in equilibrium. Such instrumentation will provide dynamic information about the solar wind including data on ion species which are currently difficult to track. It will also make possible remote sensing of the solar wind.

Snowden, S. L.↗

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The outer solar system.

Review of approaches to exploration of the outer solar system beyond the asteroid belt as seen from reports of JPL scientific groups. The topics include the cosmogonic aspects of outer solar system exploration, the satellites of the outer planets, their atmospheres, dynamics and magnetism, and the outer solar wind.

Cameron, A. G. W.↗

Challenges in Modeling the Sun-Earth System

The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales in time and space. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA Living With a Star (LWS) programs. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress. Our limited understanding of the underlying coupling physics is illustrated by the following example questions: how does the propagation of a typical CME/solar flare influence the measured properties of the solar wind at 1 AU? How does the solar wind compel the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere? How is variability in the ionosphere-thermosphere system coupled to magnetospheric variations? Why do these and related important questions remain unanswered? What are the primary problems that need to be resolved to enable significant progress in comprehensive modeling of the Sun-Earth system? Which model/technique improvements are required and what new data coverage is required to enable full model advances? This poster opens the discussion for how these and other important questions can be addressed. A workshop scheduled for October 8-22, 2004 in Huntsville, Alabama, will be a forum for identifying ana exploring promising new directions and approaches for characterizing and understanding the system. To focus the discussion, the workshop will emphasize the genesis, evolution, propagation and interaction of high-speed solar wind streamers or CME/flares with geospace and the subsequent response of geospace from its outer reaches in the magnetosphere to the lower edge of the ionosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere. Particular emphasis will be placed on modeling the coupling aspects of these phenomena across boundaries between regions and on data analysis that guides and constrains model results. Specific topics to be addressed are: Corotating interaction regions, Coronal mass ejections, Energetic particles, System preconditioning, Extreme events and super storms, End-to-End modeling efforts.

Spann, James↗

PHOBOS Exploration using Two Small Solar Electric Propulsion Spacecraft

Primitive bodies are exciting targets for exploration as they provide clues to the early Solar system conditions and dynamical evolution. The two moons of Mars are particularly interesting because of their proximity to an astrobiological target. However, after four decades of Mars exploration, their origin and nature remain enigmatic. In addition, when considering the long-term objectives of the flexible path for the potential human exploration to Mars, Phobos and Deimos present exciting intermediate opportunities without the complication and expense of landing and ascending from the surface. As interest in these targets for the next frontier of human exploration grows, characterization missions designed specifically to examine surface properties, landing environments, and surface mapping prior to human exploration are becoming increasingly important. A precursor mission concept of this sort has been developed using two identical spacecraft designed from low cost, flight proven and certified off-the-shelf component and utilizing Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) to orbit both targets as secondary payloads launched aboard any NASA or GTO launch. This precursor mission has the potential to address both precursor measurements that are strategic knowledge gaps and decadal science, including soil physical properties at the global and local (human) scale and the search for in situ resources.

Phobos↗

Dynamic security assessment of systems powered only by grid-forming power plants with uncertain dispatch using polynomial vectors

A modern challenge in power engineering is to perform the dynamic security assessment (DSA) of grids that are 100% powered by inverter-based resources (IBRs). Addressing this challenge is difficult because: (i) the dispatch of IBRs can be uncertain as a result of the variability of renewable resources and (ii) they have hard current control limits that cannot be neglected, contrasting synchronous machines. To address this problem, this paper sets forth a framework to conduct DSA of bulk power systems that are 100% powered by grid-forming IBRs. Furthermore, the framework considers that IBR operational conditions are unknown but bounded by a zonotope which is also expressed as a polynomial vector for uncertainty propagation via Dormand–Prince integration. The framework is applied to modified versions of the WSCC 9-bus and IEEE 39-bus grids.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Orientation and shape-control of an orbiting flexible beam under the influence of solar radiation pressure

In this paper, the uncontrolled and controlled dynamics of a thin flexible beam in orbit and in the presence of solar radiation disturbance are analyzed. A beam nominally oriented along (i) the local horizontal and carrying a gimballed rigid dumbbell for gravity stabilization, and (ii) a beam nominally oriented along the local vertical are considered. The uncontrolled dynamics of the beam in the presence of the solar radiation pressure disturbance shows the excitation of the rigid pitch mode. The control laws previously designed for the case where the environmental effects were neglected, are found to be inadequate to control the shape and orientation of very flexible beams that are exposed to solar radiation disturbances. The control laws and the gain parameters are reevaluated for both cases of nominal beam orientations; this results, in general, in increased robustness of the closed-loop system. Methods of obtaining a robust control system in the presence of environmental perturbations are discussed.

Krishna, R.↗

Global models of Ne and Te at solar maximum based on DE-2 measurements

Newly developed global models of the electron density of (Ne) and (Te) in the F-region at solar maximum, based on Langmuir probe measurements from the Dynamics Explorer-2 satellite, are compared with solar minimum models that were developed earlier from Atmosphere Explorer data. Spherical harmonics are used in both models to describe the variations with geomagnetic latitude and local time, but the solar maximum model also includes longitudinal variations. The solar minimum models were for the fixed altitudes of 300 km and 400 km, while the solar maximum model covers all altitudes between 300 and 1000 km. In this paper, the global patterns of Ne and Te at 400 km at solar maximum and minimum are compared with the IRI model for the corresponding parts of the solar cycle. In most respects, the IRI model describes the empirical models quite well at both solar maximum and solar minimum.

Brace, L. H.↗

The Plasma Environment at Mercury

Mercury is the least explored terrestrial planet, and the one subjected to the highest flux of solar radiation in the heliosphere. Its highly dynamic, miniature magnetosphere contains ions from the exosphere and solar wind, and at times may allow solar wind ions to directly impact the planet's surface. Together these features create a plasma environment that shares many features with, but is nonetheless very different from, that of Earth. The first in situ measurements of plasma ions in the Mercury space environment were made only recently, by the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer (FIPS) during the MESSENGER spacecraft's three flybys of the planet in 2008-2009 as the probe was en route to insertion into orbit about Mercury earlier this year. Here. we present analysis of flyby and early orbital mission data with novel techniques that address the particular challenges inherent in these measurements. First. spacecraft structures and sensor orientation limit the FIPS field of view and allow only partial sampling of velocity distribution functions. We use a software model of FIPS sampling in velocity space to explore these effects and recover bulk parameters under certain assumptions. Second, the low densities found in the Mercury magnetosphere result in a relatively low signal-to-noise ratio for many ions. To address this issue, we apply a kernel density spread function to guide removal of background counts according to a background-signature probability map. We then assign individual counts to particular ion species with a time-of-flight forward model, taking into account energy losses in the carbon foil and other physical behavior of ions within the instrument. Using these methods, we have derived bulk plasma properties and heavy ion composition and evaluated them in the context of the Mercury magnetosphere.

Raines, James M.↗

When is O+ Observed in the High Altitude Polar Cap?

Solar wind and IMF properties are correlated with the properties of O+ and H+ in the polar cap at altitudes greater than 5.5 Re geocentric using the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) on the Polar satellite. O+ is of primary interest in this study because the fraction of O+ present in the magnetosphere is commonly used as a measure of the ionospheric contribution to the magnetosphere. O+ is observed to be most abundant at lower latitudes when the solar wind speed is low and across most of the polar cap at high solar winds speeds and Kp. As the solar wind dynamic pressures increases more O+ is present in the polar cap. The O+ density is also shown to be more highly correlated with the solar wind dynamic pressure when IMF Bz is positive. H+ was not as well correlated with solar wind and IMF parameters although some correlation with IMF By is observed. H+ is more plentiful when IMF By is negative than when it is positive. In this data set H+ is very dominate so that if this plasma makes it to the plasma sheet its contribution to the plasma sheet would have a very low O+ to H+ ratio.

Elliott, H. A.↗

The SOHO-Stellar Connection

I discusses practical aspects of the so-called "solar-stellar" connection; namely, the fundamental principles, the tools at the disposal of the stellar astronomer, and a few recent examples of the connection in action. I provide an overall evolutionary context for coronal activity, calling attention to the very different circumstances of low mass main sequence stars like the Sun, which are active mainly early in their lives; compared with more massive stars, whose coronally active phase occurs near the end of their lives, during their brief incursion into the cool half of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram as yellow and then red giants. On the instrumental slide, I concentrate primarily on spectroscopy, in the ultraviolet and X-ray bands where coronae leave their most obvious signatures. I present an early glimpse of the type of moderate resolution spectra we can expect from the recently launched Chandra observatory, and contemporaneous HST STIS high-resolution UV measurements of the CXO calibration star Capella (alpha Aur; G8 III + G1 III). I compare STIS spectra of solar-type dwarfs-zeta Dor (F7 V), an active coronal source; and alpha Cen A (G2 V), a near twin of the Sun-to a trace obtained with the SOHO SUMER imaging UV spectrometer. I also compare STIS line profiles of the active coronal dwarf to the corresponding features in the mixed-activity "hybrid-chromosphere" bright giant alpha TrA (K2 II) and the archetype "noncoronal" red giant Arcturus (alpha Boo; K2 III). The latter shows dramatic evidence for a "cool absorber" in its outer atmosphere that is extinguishing the "hot lines" (like Si IV lambda1393 and N V lambda1238) below about 1500 A, probably through absorption in the Si I lambda1525 and C I lambda1240 photoionization continua. The disappearance of coronae across the "Linsky-Haisch" dividing line near K1 III thus apparently is promoted by a dramatic overturning in the outer atmospheric structure, namely the coronae of the red giants seem to lie beneath their extended chromospheres, rather than outside as in the Sun. I then discuss an intriguing long-slit STIS low-resolution observation of an X-ray active late-A dwarf in the nearby Hyades cluster: the spatially resolved UV spectroscopy clearly shows that a previously unseen close companion (a dKe or dMe) likely is responsible for the coronal activity, rather than some unexplained departure of the A dwarf from its expected state of X-ray dormancy. Finally, I describe early results from a joint observing campaign involving SOHO SUMER, TRACE, and the Kitt Peak Infrared Imaging Spectrometer, conducted May 1999, to explore the dynamics of the quiet solar atmosphere through the key "magnetic transition zone" that separates the kinetically dominated deep photosphere from the magnetically dominated coronal regime. Linking spatially and temporally resolved solar properties to aspects of the averaged lineshapes (for example: widths, asymmetries, intensity ratios, and Doppler shifts) is a crucial step in carrying any physical wisdom we develop in the solar setting to the distant stars.

Ayres, Thomas R.↗

Disk transport rates from Ti isotopic signatures of refractory inclusions

Abstract The early solar system was a dynamic period during which the formation of early solids set into motion the process of planet building. Although both astrophysical observations and theoretical modeling demonstrate the presence of widespread transport of material, we lack concrete quantitative constraints on timings, distances, and mechanisms thereof. To trace these transport processes, one needs objects of known early formation times and these objects would need to be distributed throughout parent bodies with known accretion times and distances. Generally, these criteria are met by “regular” (i.e., non–fractionated and unidentified nuclear and excluding hibonite‐rich) Ca‐Al‐rich inclusions (CAIs) as these objects formed very early and close to the young Sun and contain distinctive nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies that permit provenance tracing. However, nucleosynthetic isotopic signatures of such refractory inclusions have so far primarily been analyzed in chondritic meteorites that formed within ~4 AU from the Sun. Here, we investigate Ti isotopic signatures of four refractory inclusions from the ungrouped carbonaceous chondrite WIS 91600 that was previously suggested to have formed beyond ~10 AU from the Sun. We show that these inclusions exhibit correlated excesses in 50 Ti and 46 Ti and lack large Ti isotopic anomalies that would otherwise be indicative of more enigmatic refractory materials with unknown formation ages. Instead, these isotope systematics suggest the inclusions to be genetically related to regular CAIs commonly found in other chondrites that have a broadly known formation region and age. Collectively, this implies that a common population of CAIs was distributed over the inner ~10 AU within ~3.5 Myr, yielding an average (minimum) speed for the transport of millimeter‐scale material in the early solar system of ~1 cm s −1 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Solar-Driven Supercritical CO2 Brayton Cycle Testing (ANC)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) collaborated to conduct an investigation of the dynamic performance of a solar-driven supercritical CO2 (SCO2) Brayton cycle. This was performed on the SNL recompression closed Brayton cycle (RCBC) at the Nuclear Energy Systems Laboratory / Brayton Lab. Historical data were provided to CSIRO since the test assembly remained inoperable throughout the project. Also, multidimensional trade studies were generated using the SNL Recompression closed Brayton cycle Engineering and Trade Studies (RETS©) tool.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Charge Transport in Solvated Donor–Acceptor Functionalized Peptoids: Molecular Dynamics and Rate Theory

Scalable solar-energy conversion requires photoactive materials that combine the efficiency of natural photosynthetic systems with the stability and processability needed for practical applications. Achieving reliable charge transport in soft, self-assembled organic materials remains challenging, as structural fluctuations and environmental effects strongly influence charge-transfer (CT) rates. Here, we present a broadly applicable computational framework for evaluating CT rates in the condensed phase, combining Fermi’s golden rule rate theory with inputs from all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and first-principles electronic-structure calculations. The approach does not rely on system-specific parametrization and is applicable to a wide range of soft and disordered materials. We demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the framework on redox-active peptoids functionalized with iron–porphyrin (Fe–P) complexes, a bioinspired platform with programmable donor–acceptor units and tunable three-dimensional organization. The calculated CT rates exhibit strong sensitivity to molecular conformation, with variations spanning several orders of magnitude. This dependence is shown to arise from the pronounced variation in diabatic electronic coupling with the relative orientations and separations of the Fe–P complexes across the conformational ensemble. The framework provides a consistent route for connecting atomistic structure to CT kinetics in the condensed phase and enables analysis of structure–rate relations in organic semiconducting systems.

Charge transfer↗

Effects of Ligand Chemistry on Ion Transport in 2D Hybrid Organic–Inorganic Perovskites

2D hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites are potentially promising materials as passivation layers that can enhance the efficiency and stability of perovskite photovoltaics. The ability to suppress ion transport is proposed as a stabilization mechanism, yet an effective characterization of relevant modes of halide diffusion in 2D perovskites is nascent. In light of this knowledge gap, molecular dynamics simulations with enhanced sampling and experimental validation to systematically characterize how ligand chemistry in seven (R-NH 3 ) 2 PbI 4 systems impacts halide diffusion, particularly in the out-of-plane direction is combined. It is found that increasing stiffness and length of ligands generally inhibits ion transport, while increasing ligand polarization generally enhances it. Structural and energetic analyses of the migration pathways provide quantitative explanations for these trends, which reflect aspects of the disorder of the organic layer. Overall, this mechanistic analysis greatly enhances the current understanding of halide migration in 2D hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites and yields insights that can inform the design of future passivation materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗