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At least 1,549 records · Page 86

Summarizing Multiple Aspects of Triple Collocation Analysis in a Single Diagram

With the ongoing expansion of global observation networks, it is expected that we shall routinely analyze records of geophysical variables such as temperature from multiple collocated instruments. Validating datasets in this situation is not a trivial task because every observing system has its own bias and noise. Triple collocation is a general statistical framework to estimate the error characteristics in three or more observational-based datasets. In a triple colocation analysis, several metrics are routinely reported but traditional multiple-panel plots are not the most effective way to display information. A new formula of error variance is derived for connecting the key terms in the triple collocation theory. A diagram based on this formula is devised to facilitate triple collocation analysis of any data from observations, as illustrated using three aerosol optical depth datasets from the recent Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). An observational-based skill score is also derived to evaluate the quality of three datasets by taking into account both error variance and correlation coefficient. Several applications are discussed and sample plotting routines are provided.

triple collocation↗

ROP model for PDC bits in Geothermal drilling

Geothermal energy is a renewable source of energy, where heat extraction is preferentially balanced with the reservoir's natural heat recharge rate. The objective of this paper is to present and validate a novel rate of penetration (ROP) model for drilling hard and abrasive formations including granite formations for polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits. The ROP model was developed based on a derived relationship of a threshold weight on cutter (WOC) and its corresponding depth of cut (DOC) for a single cutter. Laboratory data was used to scale the derived single cutter relationship to a full-hole ROP model for PDC bits. The ROP model includes a non-linear correlation for Phase I (inefficient drilling due to low WOB values) and a linear Phase II (efficient drilling) ROP response to WOB. The ROP model was verified using measured drilling parameter data from Utah FORGE well# 58-32 and data from Chocolate Mountains well # 17-8 in Southern California. When compared to oil and gas well drilling, geothermal drilling in granitic formations can be more difficult and complicated due to rock hardness and high temperatures. PDC bits can increase ROP and optimize drilling for these types of hard formations. This paper provides novel insight into the ROP response of PDC bits to drilling operational parameters.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis For The Appalachian Basin: Phase 1 Revised Report November 18, 2016

Geothermal energy is an attractive sustainable energy source. Yet project developers need confirmation of the resource base to warrant their time and financial resources. The Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of the Appalachian Basin evaluated risk metrics that communicate the favorability of potential low-temperature geothermal energy resources in reservoirs more than 1000 m below the surface. This analysis is focused on the direct use of the heat, rather than on electricity production. Four risk factors of concern for direct-use geothermal plays in the Appalachian Basin portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia are examined individually, and then in combination: 1) thermal resource quality, 2) natural reservoir quality, 3) induced seismicity, and 4) utilization opportunities. Uncertainty in the risk estimation is quantified. Based on these metrics, geothermal plays in the Appalachian Basin were identified as potentially viable for a variety of direct-use-heat applications. The methodologies developed in this project may be applied in other sedimentary basins as a foundation for low temperature (50-150 °C), direct use geothermal resource, risk, and uncertainty assessment. Three methods with which to combine the four risk factors were used. Among these, the averaging of the individual risk factors indicates the most favorable counties within the study area are the West Virginia counties of Monongalia, Harrison, Lewis (dubbed the Morgantown–Clarksburg play fairway), Putnam, and Kanawha (Charleston play fairway), the New York counties of Chemung and Steuben plus adjacent Bradford county in Pennsylvania (Corning–Ithaca play fairway), and the Pennsylvania counties of Mercer, Crawford, Erie, and Warren, and adjacent Chautauqua county in New York (together, the Meadville–Jamestown play fairway). These higher priority regions are surrounded by broader medium priority zones. Also worthy of additional exploration is a broad region near Pittsburgh Pennsylvania, for which the available geological data are insufficient to fully analyze the geological risks but yet the population is high. First, to assess the spatial variation in the depth to which one would need to drill to obtain geothermal temperatures that are useful to a future project, the project used bottom-hole temperature data from Appalachian Basin oil and gas exploration. These bottom hole temperature data are abundant but of low quality. Second, the project examined the potential for sufficient water flow rates through rocks to harvest heat from a geothermal well field, considering only natural reservoirs. This analysis provides a very incomplete picture of spatial variability of natural reservoirs because the oil and gas reservoir data lack key properties and are spatially biased toward those locations with profitable amounts of hydrocarbons in the rock pore spaces. Third, in light of the fact that earthquake activity has been induced in several states by subsurface work related to the oil and gas industry, this project examined the potential for similar activity in the Appalachian Basin. Acknowledging that data for such a task are insufficient, we utilized what was available: records of seismic activity, regional estimates of the orientations of stress in the rocks, and locations and orientations of zones of lateral change in rock properties at depths down to several kilometers below Earth’s surface. With these data, we created a first approximation of spatially variable risks for induced earthquakes. Because no data existed with which to test the reliability of these methods, the results have a high degree of uncertainty. Fourth, we examined the spatial variability of the above-the-ground factors that contribute to the economical viability of projects to tap low-temperature geothermal resources for direct-use. We worked principally with population density as a regionally known variable that would impact the cost of district heating. The resulting maps omit the costs of producing the hot water from the ground, because the below-ground costs are directly coupled to the thermal resource risk factor and natural reservoir risk factor – later analyses of those costs will be needed. The result of the district heating analysis is highly skewed: few census locations yielded a low estimated surface cost. The team also identified more than 165 prospects for high value direct-use geothermal energy opportunities such as industrial sites, university campuses, and federal facilities, among others. At the closure of this regional analysis, the most significant technical uncertainties are 1) reservoir distribution and capacities; 2) validity of thermal resource maps, and 3) the holistic estimation of Levelized Cost of Heat for favorable geological situations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Comparisons of Arctic In-Situ Snow and Ice Data with Airborne Passive Microwave Measurements

As part of the AMSR-E sea ice validation campaign in March 2003, aircraft flights over the Arctic sea ice were coordinated with ground measurements of snow and sea ice properties. The surface-based measurements were in the vicinity of Barrow, AK, and at a Navy ice camp located in the Beaufort Sea. The NASA P-3 aircraft was equipped with the NOAA ETL PSR microwave radiometer that has the same frequencies as the AMSR-E sensor. The goal was to validate the standard AMSR-E products ice temperature and snow depth on sea ice. Ground measurements are the only way to validate these parameters. The higher spatial resolution of the PSR instrument (between 30 and 500 m, depending on altitude) enables a better comparison between ground measurements and microwave data because of the expected smaller spatial variability. Maps of PSR data can then be used for further down-scaling to AMSR-E pixel areas. Initial results show a good qualitative agreement between the in-situ snow depths and the PSR data. Detailed studies are underway and latest results will be presented.

Markus, T.↗

The DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey: Overview and First Data Release

The DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE) is a 126-night survey program on the 4 m Blanco Telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. DELVE seeks to understand the characteristics of faint satellite galaxies and other resolved stellar substructures over a range of environments in the Local Volume. DELVE will combine new DECam observations with archival DECam data to cover ~15,000 deg 2 of high Galactic latitude (|b| > 10°) southern sky to a 5σ depth of g, r, i, z ~ 23.5 mag. In addition, DELVE will cover a region of ~2200 deg 2 around the Magellanic Clouds to a depth of g, r, i ~ 24.5 mag and an area of ~135 deg 2 around four Magellanic analogs to a depth of g, i ~ 25.5 mag. Here, we present an overview of the DELVE program and progress to date. Furthermore, we also summarize the first DELVE public data release (DELVE DR1), which provides point-source and automatic aperture photometry for ~520 million astronomical sources covering ~5000 deg 2 of the southern sky to a 5σ point-source depth of g = 24.3 mag, r = 23.9 mag, i = 23.3 mag, and z = 22.8 mag. DELVE DR1 is publicly available via the NOIRLab Astro Data Lab science platform.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implications of doping on microstructure, processing, and thermoelectric performance: The case of PbSe

Abstract In this work, we highlight the often-overlooked effects of doping on the microstructure and performance of bulk thermoelectric materials to offer a broader perspective on how dopants interact with their parent material. Using PbSe doped with Na, Ag, and K as a model material system, we combine original computational, experimental, and microscopy data with established trends in material behavior, to provide an in-depth discussion of the relationship between dopants, processing, and microstructure, and their effects on thermoelectric efficiency and thermal stability. Notable observations include differences in the microstructure and mass loss of thermally treated samples of Na- and Ag-doped PbSe, as well as findings that Na and K cations exist predominantly as substitutional point defects while Ag also occupies interstitial sites and exhibits lower solubility. We discuss how these differences in point defect populations are known to affect a dopants’ ability to alter carrier concentration and how they may affect the mechanical properties of PbSe during processing. Graphic Abstract

Grovogui, Jann A. (ORCID:0000000200481049)↗

Constraints on lithospheric structure from satellite potential field data: Africa and Asia. Analysis and interpretation of MAGSAT anomalies over North Africa

Crustal anomaly detection with MAGSAT data is frustrated by the inherent resolving power of the data and by contamination from the external and core fields. The quality of the data might be tested by modeling specific tectonic features which produce anomalies that fall within the proposed resolution and crustal amplitude capabilities of the MAGSAT fields. To test this hypothesis, the north African hotspots associated with Ahaggar, Tibestia and Darfur have been modeled as magnetic induction anomalies due solely to shallower depth to the Curie isotherm surface beneath these features. The MAGSAT data were reduced by subtracting the external and core fields to isolate the scalar and vertical component crustal signals. The predicted model magnetic signal arising from the surface topography of the uplift and the Curie isotherm surface was calculated at MAGSAT altitudes by the Fourier transform technique modified to allow for variable magnetization. In summary it is suggested that the region beneath Ahaggar is associated with a strong thermal anomaly and the predicted anomaly best fits the associated MAGSAT anomaly if the African plate is moving in a northeasterly direction.

Phillips, R. J.↗

Utah FORGE: Neubrex Well 16B(78)-32 DAS Data - April, 2024

This dataset comprises Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data collected from the Utah FORGE monitoring well 16B(78)-32 (the producer well) during hydraulic fracture stimulation operations conducted in April 2024. The data were acquired continuously over the stimulation period at a temporal sampling rate of 10,000 Hz (10 kS/s) and a spatial resolution of approximately 3.35 feet (1.02109 meters). The measurements were captured using a Neubrex NBX-S4100 Time Gated Digital DAS interrogator unit connected to a single-mode fiber optic cable, which was permanently installed within the casing string. All recorded channels correspond to downhole segments of the fiber optic cable, from a measured depth (MD) of 5,369.35 feet to 10,352.11 feet. The DAS data reflect raw acoustic energy generated by physical processes within and surrounding the well during stimulation activities at wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32. These data have potential applications in analyzing cross-well strain, far-field strain rates (including microseismic activity), induced seismicity, and seismic imaging. Metadata embedded in the attributes of the HDF5 files include detailed information on the measured depths of the channels, interrogation parameters, and other acquisition details. The dataset also includes a recording of a seminar held on September 19, 2024, where Neubrex's Chief Operating Officer presented insights into the data collection, analysis, and preliminary findings. The raw data files, stored in HDF5 format, are organized chronologically according to the recording intervals from April 9 to April 24, 2024, with each file corresponding to a 12-second recording interval.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Reionization and dark matter decay

Cosmic reionization and dark matter decay can impact observations of the cosmic microwave sky in a similar way. A simultaneous study of both effects is required to constrain unstable dark matter from cosmic microwave background observations. We compare two reionization models with and without dark matter decay. We find that a reionization model that fits also data from quasars and star forming galaxies results in tighter constraints on the reionization optical depth τ{sub reio}, but weaker constraints on the spectral index n {sub s} than the conventional parametrization. We use the Planck 2015 data to constrain the effective decay rate of dark matter to Γ{sub eff} < 2.9 × 10{sup -25}/s at 95% C.L. This limit is robust and model independent. It holds for any type of decaying dark matter and it depends only weakly on the chosen parametrization of astrophysical reionization. For light dark matter particles that decay exclusively into electromagnetic components this implies a limit of Γ < 5.3 × 10{sup -26}/s at 95% C.L. Specifying the decay channels, we apply our result to the case of keV-mass sterile neutrinos as dark matter candidates and obtain constraints on their mixing angle and mass, which are comparable to the ones from the diffuse X-ray background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Continental Scale Aerosol Optical Properties Over East Asia as Measured by Aeronet and Comparison to Satellite and Modeled Results

The AERONET program has operated in E. Asia since 1995 providing time continuous and time averaged ground-based column-integrated aerosol optical properties in a variety of aerosol regimes In the last four years the distribution has greatly increased in Siberia, China, SE Asia and India in particular. Commensurate with that, significant improvement in data processing algorithms (Version 2.0) and access to ancillary data products through the WWW have become available to the scientific community. At this writing the following distribution represents E and S. Asia: 5 sites operate in Siberia (2 years), 1 in Mongolia (9 years), 3 in Korea (3 to 6 years), 3 in Japan (2 to 7 years), China 11 (6 to 0 years), Taiwan 4 (7 to 2 yrs), Viet Nam 2 (4 years), Thailand 2 to 5 (4 years), and Singapore 1 (4 months), India 1 to 3 (7 to 1 years), Pakistan 2 (1 year), and UAE 3 (3 years). An analysis of the aerosol optical depth at 500 nm using annual average quality assured AERONET data (pre 2006) was used to estimate the mean annual aerosol loading by continent, sub continent and ocean. The individual site data were assumed representative of regional aerosol loading and aggregated to the sub-continental, continental and oceanic areas and presented. This analysis will be updated with more recent data with particular emphasis on seasonal results for Asia and the addition of single scattering albedo retrievals. The ground based results will be compared to MODIS collection 5 results and model estimates for E. Asia using the AERONET Synergy Tool.

Holben, B. N.↗

Influences and Interactions of Inundation, Peat, and Snow on Active Layer Thickness: Modeling Archive

The Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was used to simulate thermal hydrological conditions across varied environmental conditions for an ensemble of 1D models of Arctic permafrost. The thickness of organic soil is varied from 2 to 40cm, snow depth is varied from approximately 0 to 1.2 meters, water table depth was varied from -51cm below the soil surface to 31 cm above the soil surface. A total of 15,960 ensemble members are included. Data produced includes the third and fourth simulation year: active layer thickness, time of deepest thaw depth, temperature of the unfrozen soil, and unfrozen liquid saturation, for each ensemble member. Input files used to run the ensemble are also included. File formats in the data package: .py, .h5, .xml, .exo, .txt, and .pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global mesoscale variability from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission - Correlation with ocean depth

A simple derivative filter technique for extracting mesoscale variability from satellite altimeter data having large-amplitude, long-wavelength errors, with no data adjustments necessary, is presented. The method is applied to the first year of Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The main advantage over previous filter methods is that the derivative filter is only two points long, so that it produces no edge effects. Short profiles can thus be included in the analysis. The derivative filter also transforms a dynamic height profile into a dynamic slope profile. The dynamic slope of the sea surface is a parameter that can be measured independently. Moreover, if the ocean current is in geostrophic balance, then the dynamic gradient of the sea surface is proportional to the current velocity.

Sandwell, David T.↗

Improved Representation of the Global Dust Cycle Using Observational Constraints on Dust Properties and Abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth’s atmosphere, atmospheric models 25 struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused byfundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, 30 extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global 35 basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current 40 model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

aerosols, dust↗

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI): Complete Flight Data Set

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry vehicle (EV) successfully entered the Mars atmosphere and landed the Curiosity rover safely on the surface of the planet in Gale crater on August 6, 2012. MSL carried the MSL Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Instrumentation (MEDLI). MEDLI delivered the first in-depth understanding of the Mars entry environments and the response of the entry vehicle to those environments. MEDLI was comprised of three major subsystems: the Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS), the MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs (MISP), and the Sensor Support Electronics (SSE). Ultimately, the entire MEDLI sensor suite consisting of both MEADS and MISP provided measurements that were used for trajectory reconstruction and engineering validation of aerodynamic, atmospheric, and thermal protection system (TPS) models in addition to Earth-based systems testing procedures. This report contains in-depth hardware descriptions, performance evaluation, and data information of the three MEDLI subsystems.

Cheatwood, F. McNeil↗

Robust In-Situ Strain Measurements to Monitor CO 2 Storage

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate robust instrumentation to monitor the in-situ strain tensor in order to improve the reliability and security of CO 2 storage in geologic formations. We met the original goals of the project and the major overarching accomplishment is the advancement of strain tensor monitoring from an intriguing concept to a commercially available technology with a solid foundation of novel instruments supported by theoretical analyses and validation experiments. The main accomplishments of the project are summarized below. We designed, built and evaluated nine new optical fiber strainmeters and tiltmeters using Michelson interferometers to measure deformation with ultra-high resolution at both shallow and deep point locations in the subsurface. These are the robust strainmeters that motivated the title of the project. We designed, built and evaluated a novel method of measuring distributed strain in optical fibers with nanostrain resolution, and cm-scale location, and sampling into the seismic band. The new method is called Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interfereometry (CMPI). CMPI technology has advantages over existing commercial DAS and DSS methods. We developed and demonstrated capabilities to deploy instruments in the field and used them to measure strain caused by ambient signals like barometric pressure and tides, as well as induced signals like surface loading and pore pressure changes from pumping tests. We deployed a working strainmeter at 1,700 ft depth, slightly above an active reservoir. This is to our knowledge the greatest depth a strainmeter has been deployed and the techniques we used can readily be extended to greater depths. Optical fiber borehole tensor strainmeter techology was advanced from a TRL 4 at the start, to a TRL of 7 at the conclusion of the project. The project included advances in simulations and theoretical analyses. We developed and demonstrated a computational workflow that uses machine learning to reduce the computational requirements and make it practical to use Bayesian inversion to solve large numerical poroelastic analyses needed to interpret strain tensor field data. We evaluated the strain tensor fields and time series that would be caused by leaks of CO 2 or other fluids from reservoirs. These simulations demonstrated that signals from leaks could be measured with instruments developed for the project, opening a potentially new method for ensuring storage security. We showed that strains in caprock can be used to estimate pressure in a reservoir. This avoids the need to drill monitoring wells into the reservoir, and it expands the capabilities of monitoring in the caprock. The project includes a derivation and application of a novel analytical solution to the strains in the vicinity of a pressurized poroelastic inclusion. This solution explains field data measured during injeciton tests at the North Avant Field, and it will simplify future interpretation of strain tensor data. The project included a broad range of experiments, and of the most significant is the characterization of the strain tensor at an array three strainmeters during six injection tests at the North Avant Field, Oklahoma. This demonstrated repeatability of the strain signal measured by the new instruments developed for the project, and it showed similarities between the strain signal at shallow depths and pressure in the underlying reservoir. We also demonstrated that useful strain data can be measured at reservoir depths. This confirms that strain tensor data can be measured throughout the caprock over a reservoir. The project demonstrated the feasibility of using the strain tensor and distributed strain measured in caprock during a variety of different well tests where the pumping rate was constant, sinusoidal and positive, or a periodic square wave with zero net rate. This further strengthens the validity of using strain data to characterize reservoirs and aquifers. We also demonstrated that strain caused be fluctuations of air pressure and water pressure in the vadose zone can be measured and interpreted, suggesting that high resolution distributed strain measurements hold promise for monitoring the vadose zone. The project partially supported nine graduate students in the Environmental Engineering, Hydrogeology, Electrical Engineering programs at Clemson University. The research was described in nine journal papers, 23 talks and conference abstracts. Additional journal papers are in preparation. A new company called Tensora was started to provide strainmeter technology for commercial applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Investigation of the Damping of Liquids in Right-Circular Cylindrical Tanks, Including the Effects of a Time-Variant Liquid Depth

An experimental investigation was conducted to determine the effects of several basic variables upon the damping of the fundamental antisymmetric mode of liquids in right-circular cylindrical tanks without baffles. The variables examined include liquid depth, efflux rate, liquid amplitude, kinematic viscosity, and tank size. The data are presented in dimensionless form and compared with available theory. For the range of variables examined, variations of efflux rate and liquid amplitude were found to have no significant effects on the liquid damping. The following theoretical relationship was found to be adequate for the prediction of the variation of damping with liquid depth, kinematic viscosity, and tank size: [for equation see full text] where v is the kinematic viscosity, R is the cylinder radius, g is the acceleration due to gravity, and h is the liquid depth. However, the constant K was experimentally found in this investigation to have the value 5.23, which is 50 percent higher than the theoretically predicted value.

TANK↗

Utah FORGE Seismicity Associated with the 2019 Well 58-32 Stimulation

This catalog describes the seismicity associated with the 2019 stimulation at Utah FORGE. Containing both matched-filter detections (Dzubay et al., 2022) and Schlumberger-recorded events (detected with a 12-level geophone string), the final combined catalog contains a total of 534 microseismic events spanning -2.0 Mw to -0.1 Mw. Users may differentiate between SLB and MF events using the fact that SLB event magnitudes are recorded to a higher level of precision (MF mags determined using relative amplitude ratios). Users should be wary of locations and depths (measured from sea level) for MF events, as all detections were assigned the same locations as their template events.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Canopy structure modulates the sensitivity of subalpine forest stands to interannual snowpack and precipitation variability

A declining spring snowpack is expected to have widespread effects on montane and subalpine forests in western North America and across the globe. The way that tree water demands respond to this change will have important impacts on forest health and downstream water subsidies. Here, we present data from a network of sap velocity sensors and xylem water isotope measurements from three common tree species (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa and Populus tremuloides) across a hillslope transect in a subalpine watershed in the Upper Colorado River basin. We use these data to compare tree- and stand-level responses to the historically high spring snowpack but low summer rainfall of 2019 against the low spring snowpack but high summer rainfall amounts of 2021 and 2022. From the sap velocity data, we found that only 40 % of the trees showed an increase in cumulative transpiration in response to the large snowpack year (2019), illustrating the absence of a common response to interannual spring snowpack variability. The trees that increased water use during the year with the large spring snowpack were all found in dense canopy stands – irrespective of species – while trees in open-canopy stands were more reliant on summer rains and, thus, more active during the years with modest snow and higher summer rain amounts. Using the sap velocity data along with supporting measurements of soil moisture and snow depth, we propose three mechanisms that lead to stand density modulating the tree-level response to changing seasonality of precipitation: Topographically mediated convergence zones have consistent access to recharge from snowmelt which supports denser stands with high water demands that are more reliant and sensitive to changing snow. Interception of summer rain in dense stands reduces the throughfall of summer rain to surface soils, limiting the sensitivity of the dense stands to changes in summer rain. Shading in dense stands allows the snowpack to persist deeper into the growing season, providing high local reliance on snow during the fore-summer (early-summer) drought period. Combining data generated from natural gradients in stand density, like this experiment, with results from controlled forest-thinning experiments can be used to develop a better understanding of the responses of forested ecosystems to futures with reduced spring snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗