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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

EGS Collab Earth Modeling: Integrated 3D Model of the Testbed

The EGS Collab project is conducting a series of stimulation and interwell flow tests in an intermediate scale (~10-20 m) testbed located on the 4850 level in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. The testbed consists of eight ~200 ft (~60 m) HQ-diameter (9.6 cm) boreholes that are drilled into the Poorman Formation from the western rib of the West Access Drift. Of the eight boreholes, one borehole is used as an injection/stimulation well, another sub-parallel borehole located about 10 m away from the injection well is used as a production well, and rest of the other boreholes are used as monitoring wells. For 3D visualization of the testbed as well as to provide spatially accurate and consistent parameter data for geomechanical and geophysical process modeling tasks, we are using Leapfrog Software (Seequent Limited). For analysis of fractures and creation of conditioned stochastic discrete fracture network (CS-DFN) model of the testbed, we are using FracMan (Golder Associates Inc.). As of mid-May 2019, the EGS Collab Leapfrog database contains the general layout of the drifts/shafts at the 4850 and 4100 levels; generalized geologic framework model of a domain that spans both the 4850 and 4100 levels; the CS-DFN of the testbed; and layouts of the EGS Collab testbed boreholes, kISMET testbed boreholes, and other existing boreholes at the 4850 level. This information has been obtained from the SURF Vulcan database, detailed laser scan and point surveys of borehole collar locations, directional surveys of borehole trajectories, and mapping of features in the drifts, boreholes, and cores. Similarly, other types of data that have been incorporated into the Leapfrog database include static features of the testbed such as natural discontinuities (e.g., fractures, weeps), location of monitoring instruments, and stimulation notches. Baseline geophysical characterization results (e.g., seismic, ERT, temperature, etc.) are also imported into the Leapfrog database. The location and size of packers, various point-source signals detected during stimulation and flow tests (e.g., temperature anomalies, micro-earthquake events, etc.) are also compiled in the database. All feature locations are reported using the local Homestake Mine coordinate system. In this paper, we present some of the geostructural characteristics as well as the status of the testbed as represented by Leapfrog/FracMan database/visualizations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Innovative Nb3Sn Film Approach and Its Potential for SRF Applications

A novel electro-chemical technique to produce Nb3Sn films on Nb substrates was developed and optimized at Fermilab. The Nb3Sn phase is obtained in a two-electrode cell, by electrodeposition from aqueous solutions of Sn layers and Cu intermediate layers onto Nb substrates. Subsequent thermal treatments in inert atmosphere are realized at a maximum temperature of 700°C to obtain the Nb3Sn superconducting phase. Several superconduct-ing Nb3Sn films were obtained on Nb substrates by study-ing and optimizing most parameters of the electro-plating process. Samples were characterized at Fermilab, NIMS, KEK and JLAB, including EPMA analyses, DC and in-ductive tests of critical temperature Tc0, and lower critical field Hc1(4.2 K) by SQUID. In parallel to sample devel-opment and fabrication at FNAL, at JLAB and KEK effort was put into etching and electro-polishing techniques adequate to remove the Cu and bronze phases from the samples’ outer surface. This is necessary prior to meas-urements at JLAB of the surface impedance of flat sam-ples in a setup that make use of an RF host cavity.

Barzi, E. Z.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Dynamical System Scaling to Bubble Dynamics

Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) provides a useful method for analyzing, categorizing and scaling time-dependent processes. A key feature of DSS is the temporal displacement rate, D, which relates the natural process time to the reference clock time. Because of its property of being invariant under a two-parameter affine transformation, it provides an underlying basis for process scaling. Application of DSS to bubble dynamics serves to elucidate the physical significance of the temporal displacement rate and its role in scaling a variety of bubble dynamics processes. This paper shows that the temporal displacement rate consists of the sum of dimensionless groups that govern the bubble dynamics. Preserving the temporal displacement rate for a prototype and a scaled model results in similitude of the time-dependent normalized bubble size, growth rates and interfacial accelerations for different fluid conditions. For vapor bubble growth in a superheated liquid, it is shown that inertial controlled bubble growth occurs when D=0 and thermally controlled bubble growth occurs when D=1 .

dynamical system scaling, SMR, bubble dynamics, DS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of residual dose rates from MARS and DORIAN simulations with experimental data from the SINBAD database

This benchmarking study aims to compare residual dose rate predictions from the MARS and DORIAN codes with experimental measurements taken from samples irradiated at CERN's CERF facility. The research evaluates the residual dose rates of these samples over varied cooling intervals. Additionally, it delves into the influence of parameter choices, such as specific physics processes and energy thresholds, on the production and transport of particles and their effects on simulation outcomes. While both MARS and DORIAN largely align with experimental findings, discrepancies were observed in the copper sample. This prompted an in-depth examination of the elevated dose rates from MARS.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Experimental quantification of the background neutron flux in the Advanced Test Reactor fuel storage canal - 25562

The Advanced Test Reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory is one of only a few high-power, versatile, research reactors of its type in the world. The ATR fuel storage canal features a gamma irradiation facility that has various uses as well. It is composed of a simple dry tube that extends down into one of the fuel storage rack positions. This tube is surrounded by used fuel elements that can be selected from the inventory to produce the desired gamma radiation level and, to some extent, spectrum within the dry tube. The gamma field within the dry tube is accompanied by a small background neutron flux, produced primarily by photoneutron production in the small fraction of heavy water (D{sub 2}O) that is naturally present in light water. Neutron activation spectrometry was employed to quantify the background neutron flux in the dry tube in a configuration where the gamma exposure rate was approximately 5x10{sup 6} Roentgens per hour. The measurement technique used is very sensitive and provided self-consistent results in terms of raw activation data quality. The background neutron fluxes in the gamma facility were very low, but still detectable. The total neutron flux in the energy region above 0.414 eV and the thermal neutron flux (below 0.414 eV) were estimated from the activation measurements to be 7.5x10{sup 2} and 1.0x10{sup 2} n/cm{sup 2}-s, respectively. High uncertainties (factors of approximately 20-30% in the above-thermal range and 100% in the thermal range) apply to these results. These high uncertainties are primarily due to the limited number of activation interactions that could be used to detect such small fluxes and the resulting propagation of uncertainties associated with the various input parameters involved in the spectral unfolding process. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial development of a generic fluoride salt-cooled reactor model

Fluoride high-temperature reactors (FHRs) are high-temperature, low-pressure reactor concepts that use tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel and molten fluoride salt coolant. These reactors have the potential to provide both electrical power and high-temperature process heat. We used generic FHR parameters for a pebble-bed FHR to develop an initial model with fresh fuel for a generic FHR (gFHR) in MELCOR and SCALE (NEWT and KENO). In this paper, we present the development of our gFHR models, which will serve as the baseline for a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify the range of possible source terms for FHRs in severe accidents. We present MELCOR results for fuel and coolant temperatures through the core, a nodalization study for the steady-state thermal hydraulic model, and development of reactor physics models in SCALE. As this work progresses, these models will be used to calculate source terms for a loss-of-forced-flow accident and to conduct a sensitivity study on this accident to establish a range of possible source terms. SCALE will provide reactor physics parameters like isotopic inventory, decay heat generation, and temperature coefficients of reactivity. Using the uncertainty quantification tools within SCALE, we will generate distributions for those parameters and will use the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN or DAKOTA to sample those distributions in MELCOR to quantify the impact of reactor physics and thermal hydraulic uncertainties on FHR source terms. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

System and method for wave prediction

A method and system for prediction of wave properties include collecting time-series data streams from one or more wave measurement devices and processing the data to identify data parameters to establish boundary conditions of a numerical model. The numerical model may be used to compute a predicted wave field of time-series data for a variety of wave properties at a target location.

Previsic, Mirko↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lattice Structured Lightweight Structural Materials

The development of lightweight structural materials is crucial for enhancing the performance and deployment feasibility of fission batteries. This study aims to produce lightweight structural materials whose strength-to-weight ratios exceed those of current widely used structural materials. To achieve this, advanced modeling and simulation tools were employed to design lattice structures with different lattice parameters and different lattice types. A process was successfully developed for transforming lattice-structured models into Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) inputs. Finite element modeling (FEM) was used to simulate the uniaxial tensile testing of the lattice-structured parts to investigate the stress distribution at a given displacement. The modeling results showed that the lattice-structured sample displayed a lower Young’s modulus in comparison to the solid material; the increase in solid shell thickness and blend radius enhances the mechanical performance; and the effect of unit cell size on macro scale stress is minimal. Tensile testing was conducted on the solid and lattice-structured materials fabricated by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing. The experimental results agreed well with the model prediction. The approach of using modeling as a guiding tool for preliminary material design can significantly save time and cost for new material development.

lightweight material↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Biotic responses buffer warming-induced soil organic carbon loss in Arctic tundra

Climate warming can result in both abiotic (e.g., permafrost thaw) and biotic (e.g., microbial functional genes) changes in Arctic tundra. Recent research has incorporated dynamic permafrost thaw in Earth system models (ESMs) and indicates that Arctic tundra could be a significant future carbon (C) source due to the enhanced decomposition of thawed deep soil C. However, warming-induced biotic changes may influence biologically related parameters and the consequent projections in ESMs. How model parameters associated with biotic responses will change under warming and to what extent these changes affect projected C budgets have not been carefully examined. Here in this study, we synthesized six data sets over 5 years from a soil warming experiment at the Eight Mile Lake, Alaska, into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model with a probabilistic inversion approach. The TECO model used multiple soil layers to track dynamics of thawed soil under different treatments. Our results show that warming increased light use efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis but decreased baseline (i.e., environment-corrected) turnover rates of SOC in both the fast and slow pools in comparison with those under control. Moreover, the parameter changes generally amplified over time, suggesting processes of gradual physiological acclimation and functional gene shifts of both plants and microbes. The TECO model predicted that field warming from 2009 to 2013 resulted in cumulative C losses of 224 or 87 g/m 2 , respectively, without or with changes in those parameters. Thus, warming-induced parameter changes reduced predicted soil C loss by 61%. Our study suggests that it is critical to incorporate biotic changes in ESMs to improve the model performance in predicting C dynamics in permafrost regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-driven design and self-sensing capabilities of automotive bumper lattices for adaptive impact response

We present a novel approach to design an automotive bumper energy absorber using carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites, optimized to meet conflicting performance requirements for two distinct impact scenarios. The design must satisfy both a low-speed (2.5 mph) pendulum intrusion test, simulating vehicle-to-vehicle collisions, and a high-speed (25 mph) leg flexion test, replicating pedestrian impacts. These tests demand opposing deformation characteristics: high flexibility (deformation < 85 mm) for the former and high stiffness (deformation < 22 mm) for the latter. To address these contradictory requirements, we developed a machine learning (ML) framework for inverse optimization of lattice designs and material selection. Unlike traditional iterative design processes, our ML model directly outputs optimal design parameters and material choices based on target performance inputs. The energy absorber was fabricated using advanced additive manufacturing techniques, including extrusion deposition and digital light processing. The integration of carbon fibers provides multifunctionality to the bumper structure, enabling self-sensing capabilities through changes in electrical resistivity under compression. This electrical response demonstrates high repeatability under multiple cycles at 2% compression and exhibits distinct signatures during crack formation under high deformation. This research offers adaptive performance through innovative design methodologies and smart material integration. The approach has potential applications in various fields requiring adaptive energy absorption and real-time structural health monitoring.

Chawla, Komal [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190327565)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water Sorption Study of Various Polymers and Polymeric Composites

In the formulations of many composite materials, polymeric materials are often used as binder materials to enhance processability, functionality, and safety during manufacturing. For instance, poly(ester urethane), such as Estane® 5703, is used in the formulation of PBX 9501, and vinyl copolymer elastomer (VCE) is used in the formulation of VCE/filler compos ites. The stability of these binders directly impacts the overall stability and performance of their composites. Estane and VCE are prone to hydrolytic degradation, with water sorption behavior playing a significant role in their long-term stability and aging behavior. Hence, it is critical to study their water sorption behavior under various humidity and tempera ture conditions. To improve the accuracy and reduce labor-intensive work involved in water sorption experiments, an automated Dynamic Vapor Sorption (DVS) system was employed, which can generate large datasets. To efficiently process and analyze these datasets, Python scripts were developed. These scripts not only streamlined data processing, but also accu rately derived the Arrhenius parameters related to water diffusion and sorption properties for the tested materials. This approach offers a robust framework for evaluating water trans port and sorption processes in polymeric materials and adds valuable capabilities to future water sorption testing efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A nonparametric approach to modeling dependence among production parameters for energy cost estimation

Dependence existing among production parameters can significantly affect energy costs. For material removal processes, processing times and material amounts to be cut have positive dependence, and the dependence can affect energy costs by varying a peak electricity load. Existing methods to model the dependence of production parameters are based on parametric approaches that cannot accurately represent the dependence due to the rigid nature of parametric models. To address this issue, this study proposes a method to quantify dependence among manufacturing parameters through the application of the empirical copula to the dependence between the milling processing time and the amount of volume to be cut. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study of a manufacturing facility consisting of milling machines; a total of 27 scenarios are simulated for energy cost estimations. The case study clearly shows that the proposed method can capture the dependence between the milling parameters more accurately than a conventional dependence measure from parametric correlation models. Furthermore, the findings from this study would be useful to estimate energy costs in that the proposed method provides a better fit to real production data than conventional parametric approaches can.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Calibration of Expensive Simulation Models

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Measured Driver Behavior Distributions to Results from Car-Following Models using SUMO and Real-World Vehicle Trajectories from Radar: SUMO Default vs. Radar-Measured CF model Parameters

In this study, the physical principles governing car-following (CF) behavior and their impact on traffic flow at signalized intersections are investigated. High temporal-resolution radar data is used to provide valuable insights into actual CF behavior, including acceleration, deceleration, and time headway distribution. Demand-calibrated SUMO simulations are run using empirical CF parameter distributions, and three CF models are evaluated: IDM, EIDM, and Krauss. By emulating radar data in SUMO and processing simulated vehicle traces, discrepancies between empirical and simulated parameter distributions are identified. Further analysis includes comparisons with default SUMO CF model parameters. The findings reveal that measured accelerations differ from CF model parameter accelerations and using the empirical value ($\mu = 0.89m/s^2$) leads to unrealistic simulations that fail volume-based calibration. Default parameters for all three models reasonably approximate the mean and median of measured parameters, but fail to capture the true distribution shape, partly due to homogeneity when using default parameters. The results show that it is more effective to simulate with the default parameters provided by SUMO rather than using measurements of real-world distributions without additional calibration. Future work will investigate closing the loop between the measured real-world and SUMO distributions using traditional calibration tactics, as well as assess the impact of calibrated vs. default CF parameters on simulation outputs like fuel consumption.

Schrader, Max (ORCID:0000000336737672)↗