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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

A tale of two tools: mcres.py, a stochastic resonance generator, and grokres.py, a resonance quality assurance tool

We detail two software tools, now integrated into the fudge code system. The first tool, mcres.py, can be used to generate stochastic ensembles of resonances which are both consistent with the expectations of the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble of Random Matrix Theory and with the level densities and widths encoded in ENDF formatted files. The second tool, grokres.py, can be used to assess global and local features of sequences of resonances found in ENDF files and make comparisons to known results from Random Matrix Theory. We apply these tools to 54 Fe and other nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Risk-Informed Safety Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) are being tested by different nuclear vendors and research organization and their introduction in light water reactors fleet is planned for the second half of the 2020`s. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Safety Analysis pathway (LWRS-RISA), research activities are being conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for developing tools and methods that can help the industry in quantifying the ATF introduction benefits. In this paper we describe the developed risk-informed methodology, the codes improvements and we present some results for selected accidental conditions. The developed methodology combines INL state-of-the-art deterministic Best Estimate tools like RELAP5-3D code, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis tools like RAVEN and SAPHIRE codes. The analyses are performed on a three-loops pressurized water reactor (PWR) simulating accidental conditions like Station Blackout and LB-LOCA and considering near-term ATF (FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads). Finally, we show, through our methodologies, how the delta-Core Damage Frequency can be assessed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cluster-dynamics-based parameterization for sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation: comparison and selection through box and three-dimensional modeling

Clustering of gaseous sulfuric acid (SA) enhanced by dimethylamine (DMA) is a major mechanism for new particle formation (NPF) in polluted atmospheres. However, uncertainty remains regarding the SA–DMA nucleation parameterization that reasonably represents cluster dynamics and is applicable across various atmospheric conditions. This uncertainty hinders accurate three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of NPF and the subsequent assessment of its environmental and climatic impacts. Here we extensively compare different cluster-dynamics-based parameterizations for SA–DMA nucleation and identify the most reliable one through a combination of box model simulations, 3-D modeling, and in situ observations. Results show that the parameterization derived from Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code (ACDC) simulations, incorporating the latest theoretical insights (DLPNO-CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-311++G(3df,3pd) level of theory) and adequate representation of cluster dynamics, exhibits dependable performance in 3-D NPF simulation for both winter and summer conditions in Beijing and shows promise for application in diverse atmospheric conditions. Another ACDC-derived parameterization, replacing the level of theory with RI-CC2/aug-cc-pV(T+d)Z//M06-2X/6–311++G(3df,3pd), also performs well in NPF modeling at relatively low temperatures around 280 K but exhibits limitations at higher temperatures due to inappropriate representation of SA–DMA cluster thermodynamics. Additionally, a previously reported parameterization incorporating simplifications is applicable for simulating NPF in polluted atmospheres but tends to overestimate particle formation rates under conditions of elevated temperature (>∼300 K) and low-condensation sink (<∼3×10 -3 s −1 ). Our findings highlight the applicability of the new ACDC-derived parameterization, which couples the latest SA–DMA nucleation theory and holistic cluster dynamics, in 3-D NPF modeling. The ACDC-derived parameterization framework provides a valuable reference for developing parameterizations for other nucleation systems.

Shen, Jiewen↗

The ESIF-HPC-2 Benchmark Suite: Preprint

We describe the development of the ESIF-HPC-2 benchmark suite, a collection of kernel and application benchmark codes for measuring computational and I/O performance from single nodes to full HPC systems that was used for acceptance testing in our recent HPC procurement. The configurations of the benchmarks used for our system is presented. We also describe a set of 'dimensions' that can be used to classify benchmarks and assess coverage of a suite systematically. The collection is offered cost-free as a GitHub repository for general usage and further development.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Research reactor plate fuel multi-physics hotspot model for the HFIR

Ongoing development of a multi-physics hotspot model for nuclear research reactor plate fuel is presented with a focus on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The background of plate fueled research reactors in general and the HFIR in particular are discussed along with the need to convert from high enriched uranium (HEU) to low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel, which drives the need to improve the analysis capability of fuel thermal-fluid performance. HFIR HEU fuel plate fabrication is described to explain the origin of fuel segregations and cladding non-bonds that currently contribute to the hotspot flux peaking factors. Previous efforts at modeling hotspots caused by these defects are reviewed and areas for improvement associated with high resolution multi-physics simulation are identified. Modes of heat transfer through non-bonds, including thermal contact conductance, are examined. Conjugate heat transfer over hotspots is also explored to high resolution up to and through the wall boundary. The challenges associated with multi-physics verification and validation (VV), particularly the requirements beyond VV 20, are presented. An approach to Validation within the limits of existing data for conduction heat transfer through the fuel plate, and convection into the cooling fluid is set forth. Preliminary simulations are presented assessing hot spot modeling approaches for contact conductance, and fluid turbulence modeling within COMSOL. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

SU-E-T-132: Assess the Shielding of Secondary Neutrons From Patient Collimator in Proton Therapy Considering Secondary Photons Generated in the Shielding Process with Monte Carlo Simulation

Purpose: In this study we present Monte Carlo based evaluation of the shielding effect for secondary neutrons from patient collimator, and secondary photons emitted in the process of neutron shielding by combination of moderator and boron-10 placed around patient collimator. Methods: The PHITS Monte Carlo Simulation radiation transport code was used to simulate the proton beam (Ep = 64 to 93 MeV) from a proton therapy facility. In this study, moderators (water, polyethylene and paraffin) and boron (pure {sup 10}B) were placed around patient collimator in this order. The rate of moderator and boron thicknesses was changed fixing the total thickness at 3cm. The secondary neutron and photons doses were evaluated as the ambient dose equivalent per absorbed dose [H*(10)/D]. Results: The secondary neutrons are shielded more effectively by combination moderators and boron. The most effective combination of shielding neutrons is the polyethylene of 2.4 cm thick and the boron of 0.6 cm thick and the maximum reduction rate is 47.3 %. The H*(10)/D of secondary photons in the control case is less than that of neutrons by two orders of magnitude and the maximum increase of secondary photons is 1.0 µSv/Gy with the polyethylene of 2.8 cm thick and the boron of 0.2 cm thick. Conclusion: The combination of moderators and boron is beneficial for shielding secondary neutrons. Both the secondary photons of control and those emitted in the shielding neutrons are very lower than the secondary neutrons and photon has low RBE in comparison with neutron. Therefore the secondary photons can be ignored in the shielding neutrons.This work was supported by JSPS Core-to-Core Program (No.23003). This work was supported by JSPS Core-to-Core Program (No.23003)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Status Assessment of the PROTEUS-ORIGEN Coupling

As part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, an initiative was started to provide time dependent isotopic modeling capabilities to the PROTEUS neutronics module of the Simulation based High-efficiency Advanced Reactor Prototyping (SHARP) toolkit. This capability is to be provided through a coupling with the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code, which is part of the SCALE code package developed and maintained at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This development has been a joint effort between the developers of PROTEUS at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TH-AB-209-10: Breast Cancer Identification Through X-Ray Coherent Scatter Spectral Imaging

Purpose: We have previously described the development and testing of a coherent-scatter spectral imaging system for identification of cancer. Our prior evaluations were performed using either tissue surrogate phantoms or formalin-fixed tissue obtained from pathology. Here we present the first results from a scatter imaging study using fresh breast tumor tissues obtained through surgical excision. Methods: A coherent-scatter imaging system was built using a clinical X-ray tube, photon counting detectors, and custom-designed coded-apertures. System performance was characterized using calibration phantoms of biological materials. Fresh breast tumors were obtained from patients undergoing mastectomy and lumpectomy surgeries for breast cancer. Each specimen was vacuum-sealed, scanned using the scatter imaging system, and then sent to pathology for histological workup. Scatter images were generated separately for each tissue specimen and analyzed to identify voxels containing malignant tissue. The images were compared against histological analysis (H&E + pathologist identification of tumors) to assess the match between scatter-based and histological diagnosis. Results: In all specimens scanned, the scatter images showed the location of cancerous regions within the specimen. The detection and classification was performed through automated spectral matching without the need for manual intervention. The scatter spectra corresponding to cancer tissue were found to be in agreement with those reported in literature. Inter-patient variability was found to be within limits reported in literature. The scatter images showed agreement with pathologist-identified regions of cancer. Spatial resolution for this configuration of the scanner was determined to be 2–3 mm, and the total scan time for each specimen was under 15 minutes. Conclusion: This work demonstrates the utility of coherent scatter imaging in identifying cancer based on the scatter properties of the tissue. It presents the first results from coherent scatter imaging of fresh (unfixed) breast tissue using our coded-aperture scatter imaging approach for cancer identification.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

On the influence of the power plant operational history on the inventory and the uncertainties of radionuclides relevant for the final disposal of PWR spent fuel - 15149

A mandatory requisite for official granting safe final disposal approval of SNF is the comprehensive specification and declaration of the nuclear inventory in SNF by the NPP-operators. The whole radiochemical characterization of each spent fuel assembly hides many difficulties such as very high radiation burden, destruction method, the inhomogeneous burn-up of fuel assembly, very high cost. Thus, non-destructive characterization is usually applied on industrial scale. In this case only several nuclides can be measured, and the rest is calculated using simulations and typical irradiation history. Like any other German rad-waste acceptance requirements all these declarations will have to be checked and verified by an independent inspector. In this verification process not only values of radionuclide (RN) activities are important, but also their uncertainties. The simple simulation using burn-up calculations based on typical and generic reactor operational parameters do not answer the question about possible uncertainties observed in real reactor operations. At the same time, the details of irradiation history are often unknown, which complicates the assessment of declared RN inventories. Therefore, the development of dedicated generic proof tools, which can be applied to different types of waste, often of unknown origin and history is worth a serious consideration. Here, we have compiled a set of burn-up calculations considering the operational history of 339 published or anonymized real PWR fuel assemblies. This gives us the possibility to calculate the realistic variation or spectrum of RN inventories. These histories were used as a basis for 'SRP analysis', to provide information about the range of the values of the associated secondary reactor parameters (SRP's), i.e. initial enrichment (IE), specific power (SP), irradiation time (IT), downtime (DT), boric acid concentration (BA), moderator and fuel density (MD and FD) and temperatures (MT and MT) used as input parameters for the simulation models. Then, burn-up calculation codes provide the anticipated results for the entire nuclear inventory such as characteristic activity values and the corresponding minimum and maximum limits as a function of the fuel burn-up. These results are being validated with the experimental data from various publications and the online database - SFCOMPO and subsequently transferred and summarized into our own database. Ultimately, this database will provide the basis of proof tools for the operator independent verification of the declared nuclear inventories for the quality and safety assessment of a radioactive waste compound and bounding values for certain RN as a function of burn-up. The RN inventory can hence be verified without taking credit of the whole of the operational history of the SNF. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Assessment of the 3420 Building Filtered Exhaust Stack Sampling Probe Location: Stack Verification Following Fan and Air Blender Additions

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) 3420 Building, which is part of the Physical Sciences Facility (PSF), houses radiological capabilities that results in the requirement that emissions monitoring must be conducted for potential radionuclides in the exhaust air discharge of this building. The air monitoring system is required to conform to Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations part 61 (40 CFR 61) Subpart H, which in turns requires a sampling probe in the exhaust stream to conform to the criteria of American National Standards Institute / Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-2011, Sampling and Monitoring Releases of Airborne Radioactive Substances from the Stack and Ducts of Nuclear Facilities. To support the air emissions permit for the 3420 Building on the PNNL campus, stack testing that used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling as a surrogate stack and verification tests of velocity uniformity and flow angle on the retrofitted facility stack was performed. The ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria for the air monitoring probe location are that velocity uniformity, gaseous tracer uniformity, and particulate tracer uniformity must be less than or equal to 20%COV. Furthermore, no point in the sampling location may have a gaseous tracer concentration that varies from the mean concentration by more than 30%. Additionally, the flow angle at the sampling location must not be more than 20°. The CFD modeling of the stack, as reported by Recknagle et al. (2018) demonstrated that the stack meets the criteria at the probe location. The velocity uniformity and flow angle results from the 3420 stack verification tests, performed in October 2020, demonstrated that the CFD model results may be used to support the qualification of the stack sampling location. The measured velocity uniformity verification test result was 1.4%COV. This value is well within the uniformity criterion, which is that the velocity uniformity be =20%COV. Additionally, this value is well within the criterion that the actual stack measurement must be within 5% of the surrogate stack result of 2.1%COV when all four fans were operating. Additionally, the measured average flow angle at the 3420 stack monitor location was 15.5 degrees. Although this is higher than expected based on the CFD model, the result is =20 degrees, so the criterion is met. Based on these stack verification test results, the reconfigured 3420 Building filtered exhaust stack meets the qualification criteria given in the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard. Further changes to the system configuration or operating conditions that are outside the bounds described in this and the CFD report (Recknagle et al., 2018) may require additional tests and additional analysis to determine compliance with the standard.

3420 Building↗

Association of post-COVID phenotypic manifestations with new-onset psychiatric disease

Acute COVID-19 infection can be followed by diverse clinical manifestations referred to as Post Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV2 Infection (PASC). Studies have shown an increased risk of being diagnosed with new-onset psychiatric disease following a diagnosis of acute COVID-19. However, it was unclear whether non-psychiatric PASC-associated manifestations (PASC-AMs) are associated with an increased risk of new-onset psychiatric disease following COVID-19. A retrospective electronic health record (EHR) cohort study of 2,391,006 individuals with acute COVID-19 was performed to evaluate whether non-psychiatric PASC-AMs are associated with new-onset psychiatric disease. Data were obtained from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), which has EHR data from 76 clinical organizations. EHR codes were mapped to 151 non-psychiatric PASC-AMs recorded 28–120 days following SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and before diagnosis of new-onset psychiatric disease. Association of newly diagnosed psychiatric disease with age, sex, race, pre-existing comorbidities, and PASC-AMs in seven categories was assessed by logistic regression. There were significant associations between a diagnosis of any psychiatric disease and five categories of PASC-AMs with odds ratios highest for neurological, cardiovascular, and constitutional PASC-AMs with odds ratios of 1.31, 1.29, and 1.23 respectively. Secondary analysis revealed that the proportions of 50 individual clinical features significantly differed between patients diagnosed with different psychiatric diseases. Our study provides evidence for association between non-psychiatric PASC-AMs and the incidence of newly diagnosed psychiatric disease. Significant associations were found for features related to multiple organ systems. This information could prove useful in understanding risk stratification for new-onset psychiatric disease following COVID-19. Prospective studies are needed to corroborate these findings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Numerical investigation of plasma edge transport and limiter heat fluxes in Wendelstein 7-X startup plasmas with EMC3-EIRENE

Here the results of a first systematic assessment of plasma edge transport processes for the limiter startup configuration at Wendelstein 7-X are presented. This includes an investigation of transport from intrinsic and externally injected impurities and their impact on the power balance and limiter heat fluxes. The fully 3D coupled plasma fluid and kinetic neutral transport Monte Carlo code EMC3-EIRENE is used. The analysis of the magnetic topology shows that the poloidally and toroidally localized limiters cause a 3D helical scrape-off layer (SOL) consisting of magnetic flux tubes of three different connection lengths L C . The transport in the helical SOL is governed by L C as topological scale length for the parallel plasma loss channel to the limiters. A clear modulation of the plasma pressure with L C is seen. The helical flux tube topology results in counter streaming sonic plasma flows. The heterogeneous SOL plasma structure yields an uneven limiter heat load distribution with localized peaking. Assuming spatially constant anomalous transport coefficients, increasing plasma density yields a reduction of the maximum peak heat loads from 12 MWm -2 to 7.5 MWm -2 and a broadening of the deposited heat fluxes. The impact of impurities on the limiter heat loads is studied by assuming intrinsic carbon impurities eroded from the limiter surfaces with a gross chemical sputtering yield of 2 . The resulting radiative losses account for less than 10% of the input power in the power balance with marginal impact on the limiter heat loads. It is shown that a significant mitigation of peak heat loads, 40–50%, can be achieved with controlled impurity seeding with nitrogen and neon, which is a method of particular interest for the later island divertor phase.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dose Coefficient Calculation for Use in Dosimetry Assessment of a Fission-Based Weapon

In the event of a fission-based weapon or improvised nuclear device (IND) detonation, dose coefficients can be harnessed to provide dose assessments for defense, emergency preparedness, and consequence management, as well as to prospectively inform the assessment of radiation biomarkers and development of medical prophylaxis countermeasures for defense and homeland security stakeholders and decision-makers. Although dose coefficients have previously been calculated for this group, they would apply specifically to the studied population, the 1945 Japanese cohort, after which their anthropomorphic computational phantoms were modeled. For this reason, applications to other populations may be limited, and instead, an assessment of a more standardized population is desired. We employed a series of computational human phantoms representing international reference individuals: UF/NCI voxel phantom series containing newborn, 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, and 35-year-old males and females. Irradiation of the phantoms was simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code to determine organ dose coefficients under four idealized irradiation geometries at three distances from the detonation hypocenter at Hiroshima and Nagasaki using DS02 free-in-air prompt neutron and photon fluence spectra. Through these simulations, age-specific dose coefficients were determined for individual organs. Various articulated PIMAL stylized phantoms were simulated as well to estimate the effect of body posture on dose coefficients and determine the effect of posture on dosimetric estimation and reconstruction. Results additionally demonstrate that 137 Cs and the Watt fission spectra are not ideal general surrogate sources for fission weapons, which may be considered for experimental testing of medical countermeasures. Supplementary data provided tabulates the compilation of organ dose-rate coefficients in this study.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

gRNA-SeqRET: a universal tool for targeted and genome-scale gRNA design and sequence extraction for prokaryotes and eukaryotes

High-throughput genetic screening is frequently employed to rapidly associate gene with phenotype and establish sequence-function relationships. With the advent of CRISPR technology, and the ability to functionally interrogate previously genetically recalcitrant organisms, non-model organisms can be investigated using pooled guide RNA (gRNA) libraries and sequencing-based assays to quantitatively assess fitness of every targeted locus in parallel. To aid the construction of pooled gRNA assemblies, we have developed an in silico design workflow for gRNA selection using the gRNA Sequence Region Extraction Tool (gRNA-SeqRET). Built upon the previously developed CCTop, gRNA-SeqRET enables automated, scalable design of gRNA libraries that target user-specified regions or whole genomes of any prokaryote or eukaryote. Additionally, gRNA-SeqRET automates the bulk extraction of any regions of sequence relative to genes or other features, aiding in the design of homology arms for insertion or deletion constructs. We also assess in silico the application of a designed gRNA library to other closely related genomes and demonstrate that for very closely related organisms Average Nucleotide Identity (ANI) > 95% a large fraction of the library may be of relevance. The gRNA-SeqRET web application pipeline can be accessed at https://grna.jgi.doe.gov. The source code is comprised of freely available software tools and customized Python scripts, and is available at https://bitbucket.org/berkeleylab/grnadesigner/src/master/ under a modified BSD open-source license (https://bitbucket.org/berkeleylab/grnadesigner).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dissimilatory Sulfate Reduction Under High Pressure by Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20

Biosouring results from production of H2S by sulfate-reducing microorganisms (SRMs) in oil reservoirs. H2S is toxic, corrosive, and explosive, and as such, represents a significant threat to personnel, production facilities, and transportation pipelines. Since typical oil reservoir pressures can range from 10 to 50 MPa, understanding the role that pressure plays in SRM metabolism is important to improving souring containment strategies. To explore the impact of pressure, we grew an oil-field SRM isolate, Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20, under a range of pressures (0.1–14 MPa) at 30°C. The observed microbial growth rate was an inverse function of pressure with an associated slight reduction in sulfate and lactate consumption rate. Competitive fitness experiments with randomly bar-coded transposon mutant library sequencing (RB-TnSeq) identified several genes associated with flagellar biosynthesis and assembly that were important at high pressure. The fitness impact of specific genes was confirmed using individual transposon mutants. Confocal microscopy revealed that enhanced cell aggregation occurs at later stages of growth under pressure. We also assessed the effect of pressure on SRM inhibitor potency. Dose-response experiments showed a twofold decrease in the sensitivity of D. alaskensis to the antibiotic chloramphenicol at 14 MPa. Fortuitously, pressure had no significant influence on the inhibitory potency of the common souring controlling agent nitrate, or the emerging SRM inhibitors perchlorate, monofluorophosphate, or zinc pyrithione. Our findings improve the conceptual model of microbial sulfate reduction in high-pressure environments and the influence of pressure on souring inhibitor efficacy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Pseudo-Newtonian Equations for Evolution of Particles and Fluids in Stationary Space-times

Pseudo-Newtonian potentials are a tool often used in theoretical astrophysics to capture some key features of a black hole space-time in a Newtonian framework. As a result, one can use Newtonian numerical codes, and Newtonian formalism, in general, in an effective description of important astrophysical processes such as accretion onto black holes. In this paper, we develop a general pseudo-Newtonian formalism, which pertains to the motion of particles, light, and fluids in stationary space-times. In return, we are able to assess the applicability of the pseudo-Newtonian scheme. The simplest and most elegant formulas are obtained in space-times without gravitomagnetic effects, such as the Schwarzschild rather than the Kerr space-time; the quantitative errors are smallest for motion with low binding energy. Included is a ready-to-use set of fluid equations in Schwarzschild space-time in Cartesian and radial coordinates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Validation Study of Pin Heat Transfer for MOX Fuel Based on the IFA-597 Experiments

Abstract The IFA-597 (Integrated Fuel Assessment) experiments from the International Fuel Performance Experiments (IFPE) database were designed to study the thermal behavior of mixed oxide (MOX) fuel and the effects of an annulus on fission gas release in light-water-reactor fuel. An evaluation of nuclear fuel pin heat transfer in the FRAPCON-3.4 and Exnihilo codes for MOX fuel systems was performed, with a focus on the first 20 time steps ( 6 GWd/MT(iHM)) for explicit comparison between the codes. In addition, sensitivity studies were performed to evaluate the effect of the radial power shape and approximations to the geometry to account for the thermocouple hole, dish, and chamfer. The analysis demonstrated relative agreement for both solid (rod 1) and annular (rod 2) fuel in the experiment, demonstrating the accuracy of the codes and their underlying material models for MOX fuel, while also revealing a small energy loss artifact in how gap conductance is currently handled in Exnihilo for chamfered fuel pellets. The within-pellet power shape was shown to significantly impact the predicted centerline temperatures. This has provided an initial benchmarking of the pin heat transfer capability of Exnihilo for MOX fuel with respect to a well-validated nuclear fuel performance code.

Phillippe, Aaron M↗

Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as the fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.

Knowlton, Robert↗