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DOE OSTI2015

Using Project Complexity Determinations to Establish Required Levels of Project Rigor

The concepts discussed in this paper 1) focus on using technical competencies and skills in making objective determinations regarding project complexity based on objective scoring criteria and 2) then using the complexity determinations to establish the level of rigor required in initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and controlling, and closing projects to maximize process efficiency. This paper presents a project complexity analysis methodology for defining the levels of project management process rigor a project team needs to employ to maximize project delivery efficiencies without compromising quality and performance. Methods for making project complexity determinations based on project lifecycle size, duration, organizational complexity, requirements, technology readiness, risk, and visibility are discussed. The paper correlates the levels of rigor needed by project management process groups given the determined level of project complexity. Next, the paper presents a graded approach to defining extent of team formation, planning documentation rigor, stakeholder communication rigor, requirements management rigor, acquisition planning, risk management, executing, and monitoring and controlling rigor dependent on project complexity determinations. Methods for integrating and aligning the project complexity determination methods into existing project management procedures and processes are also discussed as well as methods for training personnel in the use of the method and facilitating and monitoring effectiveness of implementation within an organization in which project delivery is a mission focus.

complexity, project, determination, management, tr↗

DOE OSTI2016

Operations Optimization of Hybrid Energy Systems under Variable Markets

Hybrid energy systems (HES) have been proposed to be an important element to enable increasing penetration of clean energy. This paper investigates the operations flexibility of HES, and develops a methodology for operations optimization to maximize its economic value based on predicted renewable generation and market information. The proposed operations optimizer allows systematic control of energy conversion for maximal economic value, and is illustrated by numerical results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Balancing Power Absorption and Structural Loading for a Novel Fixed-Bottom Wave Energy Converter with Nonideal Power Take-Off in Regular Waves: Preprint

In this work, the net power delivered to the grid from a nonideal power take-off (PTO) is introduced followed by a review of the pseudo-spectral control theory. A power-to-load ratio, used to evaluate the pseudo-spectral controller performance, is discussed, and the results obtained from optimizing a multiterm objective function are compared against results obtained from maximizing the net output power to the grid. Simulation results are then presented for four different oscillating wave energy converter geometries to highlight the potential of combing both geometry and PTO control to maximize power while minimizing loads.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2017

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalman filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2017

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Sequential Game of Defense and Attack on an Interdependent System of Systems

This research studies the defense strategy of an interdependent system in the face of rational attacks. We propose a sequential game between an attacker and a defender on an interdependent system of systems (SoS) to explore the effect of interdependency on the optimal defense strategy. An algorithm of backward induction isdeveloped to obtain the Nash equilibrium of the game.The attacker is the first mover as he applies an attack strategy on constituent systems that maximize his utility. The defender observes and responds by a defense strategy that maximizes her utility. Both players’ utilities are evaluated as the difference between a player’s reward due to SoS functionality (dysfunctionality) and the cost of the action. The sensitivity analysis compares the effects of different parameters on the attacker’s and defender’s strategies such as the effectiveness of defense (attack), the unit cost of defense (attack) and the interdependency level on constituent systems.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2018

Modeling Framework and Results to Inform Charging Infrastructure Investments

Plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the United States increased by 40% in 2016, reaching a total stock of over 500,000 vehicles. Still, widespread market adoption of PEVs remains hindered by many factors, including a lack of a convenient and ubiquitous network of charging stations. Understanding the barriers to and benefits of deploying a widespread and effective network of PEV charging stations, also known as electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), is particularly important. Such a network would promote PEV consumer acceptance and market growth, enable long-distance travel for BEVs (alleviating the range anxiety concerns of many consumers), and potentially increase the share of electric miles driven by PHEVs. Infrastructure planning must anticipate PEV adoption while remaining cost-effective so low station utilization does not severely undermine the business case for building and operating stations. This project presents an approach for developing a U.S. network of non-residential EVSE that enables broader PEV adoption and maximizes PEV use. This analysis can help inform various public and private stakeholders who are seeking to provide nationwide charging coverage and improve the business case for building stations by maximizing station utilization.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermal Desalination as Cooling for a Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle

Multi-effect distillation (MED) is commonly used for seawater desalination. MED offers numerous advantages over other existing thermal desalination systems. MED systems are commonly integrated with a steam-Rankine power cycle, for simultaneous production of power and freshwater. Low-pressure steam is extracted from the power cycle to act as a heat source for the MED. The operating temperature of the low-pressure steam must be high enough to drive the MED system. This necessitates an increase in the operating pressure on the power-cycle condenser, resulting in a decrease in power production. Hence, integration of MED with the steam-Rankine cycle is a parasitic load for the power plant. The supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton cycle is being pursued as a new power cycle because of its potential for higher energy efficiency and compact turbomachinery. The sCO2 exiting the low-temperature recuperator is quite hot and is cooled as a sensible-heat fluid before flowing back to the compressor. This heat is sufficiently hot to drive an MED system, rather than being rejected to the environment. Such a thermal integration could lead to simultaneous production of power and potable water without affecting the sCO2 Brayton cycle efficiency. The objective of the present study is to maximize the distillate production from MED without acting as a parasitic load. Optimal feed configuration for the MED is identified for maximizing the distillate concentration. Techno-economic analysis showed the cost of distillate for MED is about 30% lower than distillate produced by reverse osmosis (RO).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Parameter Co-optimization for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Powertrain System Leveraging V2V/V2I Information

A parameter tuning based co-optimization scheme for the hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) powertrain system is designed to maximize the fuel efficiency. The optimization controlled input parameters are chosen based on sensitivity study of powertrain control parameters. The vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure information is another optimization input, to have the driving conditions taking in to considerations for maximizing fuel efficiency. The catalyst temperature is considered as an additional constraint as the speed to reach lightoff temperature should not decrease during optimized operation. Neural network is used to develop a simplified yet equivalent model for the optimization problem model. We have achieved an average of 9.22% fuel savings for a random driving cycle on a Toyota Prius test model.

Hong, Wanshi↗

DOE OSTI2019

Cyber Threat Screening Using a Queuing-Based Game-Theoretic Approach

Dynamic and uncertain security environments, such as cyber systems, often involve strategic interactions among multiple decision-making agents. In this paper, we consider a cybersecurity setting where a system administrator (defender) has to screen malicious service requests of an attacker who seeks to exhaust available cyber resources and inconvenience users with normal requests. We propose a novel cyber-threat inspection model, based on Stackelberg games, that unies aspects of Threat Security Games with the Erlang-B queuing framework to provide equilibrium strategies for both the attacker and defender. In our proposed model, the defender seeks to determine the optimal number of inspection nodes required to maximize detection probability of malicious requests, while the attacker maximizes the probability of legitimate requests dropping out of the system. We derive analytical expressions of the equilibrium solutions of the proposed Stackelberg game under realistic assumptions on system observability and payoff structure of the players. A numerical case study is presented, and steps for further research are identified.

Cybersecurity, Stackelberg game, Erlang-B loss sys↗

DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Model Development of a Variable-Geometry Attenuator Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

Because the wave energy industry is still in its infancy, an optimal design for wave energy converters (WECs) has yet to be established; more work is needed to explore various cost reduction pathways. The primary cost-reduction pathway considered for this work is the optimization of the geometric profile on an attenuator WEC to maximize power production while, at the same time, minimizing capital expenditures through the use of variable-geometry modules. In this investigation, the variable geometry modules consist of inflatable bags placed on either side of a base central steel cylinder that would be inflated in low moderate sea states to maximize power capture and then deflated in moderate-extreme sea states to minimize wave loading. The numerical model and simulation of the attenuator WEC were developed and completed using WEC-Sim, which is an open-source code that is appropriate for use in evaluating the dynamic response of the different WEC models in operational seas. The power production estimates were obtained from the Wave Energy Prize (WEP) sea states, which are representative of U. S. deployment sites, to calculate the average climate capture width that is used in the WEP ACE calculation. Preliminary capital expenditure costs were obtained assuming the base central steel cylinder mass was equal to the fluid displaced mass, minus the mass of the variable-geometry bags. The additional weight required to offset the additional buoyancy from the variable-geometry bags was assumed to come from the addition of seawater ballast. The variable-geometry attenuator model was found to have a similar power capture efficiency as a fixed-body model, but is expected to have a lower characteristic capital expenditure given its more streamlined profile, which demonstrates that variable-geometry modules may provide a realistic cost-reduction pathway to help design a more cost-competitive WEC.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

DOE OSTI2020

Vertex Reordering for Real-world Graphs and Applications: An Empirical Evaluation

Vertex reordering is a way to improve locality in graph computations. Given an input (or ``natural'') order, reordering aims to compute an alternate permutation of the vertices that is aimed at maximizing a locality-based objective. Given decades of research on this topic, there are tens of graph reordering schemes, and there are also several linear arrangement ``gap'' measures for treatment as objectives. However, a comprehensive empirical analysis of the efficacy of the ordering schemes against the different gap measures, and against real-world applications is currently lacking. In this study, we present an extensive empirical evaluation of up to 11 ordering schemes, taken from different classes of approaches, on a set of 34 real-world graphs emerging from different application domains. Our study is presented in two parts: a) a thorough comparative evaluation of the different ordering schemes on their effectiveness to optimize different linear arrangement gap measures, relevant to preserving locality; and b) extensive evaluation of the impact of the ordering schemes on two real-world, parallel graph applications, namely, community detection and influence maximization. Our studies show a significant divergence among the ordering schemes (up to $40\times$ between the best and the poor) in their effectiveness to reduce the gap measures; and a wide ranging impact of the ordering schemes on various aspects including application runtime (up to $4\times$), memory and cache use, load balancing, and parallel work and efficiency. The comparative study also help reveal the nuances of a parallel environment (compared to serial) on the ordering schemes and their role in optimizing applications.

Barik, Reet↗

DOE OSTI2020

GOOML: Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a project focused on maximizing increased availability and capacity from existing industrial-scale geothermal generation assets. The GOOML project will develop a suite of machine learning-based algorithms that analyze historical production datasets and provide predictive setpoints for geothermal field operations. Historical datasets from New Zealand and the US will provide the input to develop digital geothermal system twins which allow prediction of market conditions, maintenance operations and steamfield optimization. The algorithms will identify key parameters within fields and suggest setpoints for components of the system to maintain optimal generation. Set-points can be instructed to follow mass flow restrictions, generation maximization and optimal field/reservoir balance and give field operators a guide by which generation can be optimized. The datasets that will be used to develop GOOML are sourced from operating geothermal fields in New Zealand and the United States with varying degrees of complexity. This will ensure that most geothermal systems can utilize the GOOML tool to assist in optimizing operations. GOOML aims to achieve a step-change in geothermal operations by developing state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and a first-of-its-kind automated, intelligent geothermal system model.

algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Efficiency and Operational Cost Savings: A Framework for Automated Rooftop PV Placement

Residential energy consumers are charged based on a utility rate structure, such as net metering or feed-in tariff. To lower consumers' electricity bills, expensive batteries are deployed to reduce the electricity fed from the grid during peak hours. However, strategic photovoltaic (PV) panel placement enables the reduction of operational energy cost while considering the spatial feasibility and efficiency for hosting rooftop PV. In this paper, we present a framework to automatically identify the optimal location of rooftop PV panels on residential buildings. Our framework integrates multiple workflows, including energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to identify the ideal location of PV panels to balance the demand and supply at a building and community scale. These workflows are linked using the Grasshopper plug-in for Rhinoceros CAD software. The framework includes two different workflows, each satisfying a target for optimal PV placement: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency, where users aim to maximize energy generation, and (b) minimizing operational energy cost, where "best'' panels are selected considering utility rates for operational energy cost. Our framework is demonstrated in a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to generate the optimal PV placement for each of the two aforementioned targets. Results from the two workflows are compared to illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost. The developed workflows are introduced as tools within the Grasshopper plug-in to investigate the solar potential of rooftop PV panels while taking into account factors such as contextual shading, utility rate structures, and buildings' energy demand profiles.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2021

National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants – Radionuclide Emissions Calendar Year 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) operates the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) and the North Las Vegas Facility (NLVF). From 1951 through 1992, the NNSS was the continental testing location for U.S. nuclear weapons. Radionuclides in air from NNSS activities have been monitored since the initiation of atmospheric testing. After 1962, testing was limited to underground detonations, which greatly reduced radiation exposure to the public. Since the end of nuclear testing in 1992, radiation monitoring has focused on detecting airborne radionuclides from historically contaminated soils because this sources dominates the potential offsite dose. These radionuclides are derived from re-suspension of soil (primarily by wind) and emission of tritium-contaminated soil moisture through evapotranspiration. Low amounts of legacy-related tritium are also emitted to air at the NLVF, an NNSS support complex in North Las Vegas. To protect the public from harmful levels of manmade radiation, the Clean Air Act, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), specifically the National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other Than Radon From Department of Energy Facilities (40 CFR 61, Subpart H, 2020) limits the release of radioactivity from a DOE facility to that which would cause 10 millirem per year (mrem/y) effective dose equivalent (EDE) to any member of the public. This limit does not include radiation unrelated to NNSS activities. Unrelated doses could come from naturally occurring radioactive elements, from sources such as medically or commercially used radionuclides, or from sources outside of the United States, such as Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant, which was damaged in 2011. NNSA/NFO demonstrates compliance with the NESHAP limit by reporting environmental measurements of radionuclide air concentrations at critical receptor locations on the NNSS. This alternative was proposed and formerly submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2001 (EPA 2001a) and has been the method used to demonstrate compliance with the 40 CFR 61.92 dose standard since 2005. Six locations on the NNSS have been established to act as critical receptor locations to demonstrate compliance with the NESHAP limit. These locations are closer to radionuclide releases than where the public resides so they act as protective substitutes for public receptor locations. Compliance is demonstrated if the measured annual average concentration is less than the NESHAP Concentration Level (CL) for Environmental Compliance listed in Table 2 of 40 CFR 61, Appendix E. For multiple radionuclides, compliance is demonstrated when the sum of the fractions (determined by dividing each radionuclide’s concentration by its CL and then adding the fractions together) is less than 1.0. The EPAapproved air transport model, called the Clean Air Package 1988 (CAP88-PC) is also used to calculate the effective dose equivalent to the maximally exposed individual from NNSS air emissions. CAP88-PC was also used to calculate the population dose, or the collective EDE (expressed as person-rem [roentgen equivalent man] per year [person-rem/y]) for all individuals combined who reside within 80 kilometers (km) of NNSS emission sources. In 2020, the potential dose from radiological emissions to air from both current and past NNSS activities was well below the 10 mrem/y dose limit. This is demonstrated by both the air sampling data collected at critical receptor air monitoring stations and CAP88-PC modeling. The average concentrations of radioactivity at air critical receptor stations ranged from 0.2% to a maximum of 4.2% of the allowed NESHAP limit. CAP88-PC modeling of all 2020 NNSS radionuclide emissions showed the maximally exposed individual to be in Amargosa Valley and this individual received a potential dose of 0.063 mrem/y. The collective dose was calculated to be 0.29 person-rem/year for the 521,300 people who lived within 80 km of NNSS emission sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Robust Approach to Sequential Information Theoretic Planning

In many sequential planning applications a natural approach to generating high quality plans is to maximize an information reward such as mutual information (MI). Unfortunately, MI lacks a closed form in all but trivial models, and so must be estimated. In applications where the cost of plan execution is expensive, one desires planning estimates which admit theoretical guarantees. Through the use of robust M-estimators we obtain bounds on absolute deviation of estimated MI. Moreover, we propose a sequential algorithm which integrates inference and planning by maximally reusing particles in each stage. We validate the utility of using robust estimators in the sequential approach on a Gaussian Markov Random Field wherein information measures have a closed form. Lastly, we demonstrate the benefits of our integrated approach in the context of sequential experiment design for inferring causal regulatory networks from gene expression levels. Here, our method shows improvements over a recent method which selects intervention experiments based on the same MI objective.

Zheng, Sue↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coupled Microbial-Conversion and Computational-Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) Models for Butanediol Production in Micro-Aerated Reactors

Microbial conversion of substrates to macromolecules has been widely used in the synthesis of value-added products in pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. These bioreactions are also being investigated in the production of low-value commodities such as biofuels [1]. Gas-liquid mass-transfer and transport-reaction coupling are important challenges when designing and scaling up these reactor systems. Experiments in wellmixed small-scale reactors have enabled characterization of microbial reactivity, while their coupling with macroscale transport remains relatively unexplored. In this work, we use a coupled metabolic-CFD model to study the action of a genetically engineered microbe Zymomonas mobilis [2] on sugars to produce 2,3-Butanediol (BDO). BDO is an important hydrocarbon intermediate that can be catalytically upgraded to several fuels and chemicals [3]. An important aspect to this particular microbial conversion is the need for micro-aerated environments as opposed to traditional aerobic fermentation. Slight variations in oxygen concentration can result in competing reaction pathways that disable BDO production. Hence, gas-liquid mass transfer and transport need to be optimized in large-scale reactors to maximize BDO production, for which CFD is a valuable tool. The aerobic-fermentation CFD model previously developed by the authors [5] for simulating bubble-column and airlift reactors at scale was used in this study. The Reynolds-averaged mass, momentum and energy transport equations for interpenetrating gas and liquid phase are solved in this model along with the transport and interphase mass transfer of oxygen. Our previous work used a phenomenological model for microbial oxygen uptake that neglected microbial growth and other reaction pathways. In this work, a detailed metabolic model enabled prediction of product formation and inhibition pathways. In order to manage computational cost, we used a subcycling technique [6] that takes advantage of the clear separation in transport (~ 200 sec) and reaction (~ 2-3 hours) timescales. The CFD model is first solved to steady state, after which the metabolic model is advanced at every cell in the computational domain using the local oxygen concentration. The CFD model is then run to achieve a new steady state that provides a new oxygen distribution for the metabolic model. This process, where reaction and fluid updates are interleaved together, is iterated until reactants are completely exhausted. This work will examine the performance of different reactor designs such as bubble column and airlift reactors at scale (250-500 m3). Oxygen mass-transfer coefficient and distribution are critically analyzed among reactors, and optimization studies pertaining to aeration is presented. Furthermore, it has been observed in experiments that high BDO production may be achieved by manipulating the aerobic environment over the course of reaction, such that oxygen concentration is high during the growth phase, and very low as sugar is depleted. This characteristic will be addressed by our simulations for which a timedependent scheduling strategy for aeration is presented that maximizes BDO production. [1] Humbird, D., Davis, R., and McMillan, J., Aeration costs in stirred-tank and bubble column bioreactors, Biochemical Engineering Journal, 127, 161—166, 2017 [2] Yang, S., Mohagheghi, A., Franden, M. A., Chou, Y.-C., Chen, X., Dowe, N., Himmel, M. E., and Zhang, M., Metabolic engineering of zymomonas mobilis for 2, 3-butanediol production from lignocellulosic biomass sugars. Biotechnology for biofuels, 9(1):189, 2016 [3] Kim, S. J., Sim, H. J., Kim, J. W., Lee, Y. G., Park, Y. C., and Seo, J. H., Enhanced production of 2,3-butanediol from xylose by combinatorial engineering of xylose metabolic pathway and cofactor regeneration in pyruvate decarboxylase-deficient Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Bioresource Technology, 245:1551–1557, 2017 [4] Weller, H., Tabor, G., Jasak, H. and Fureby, C., A tensorial approach to computational continuum mechanics using object-oriented techniques, Computers in physics, 12, 6, 620--631, 1998

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities and Challenges for Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems

Nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (also known as integrated nuclear-renewable systems) are conceptual systems that have two or more energy inputs and produce two or more products. They maximize profitability, and usually equipment utilization, by adjusting between the products depending upon the availability of resources and market value. For example a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system that produces electricity and hydrogen would maximize sales of electricity when its price is high and shift to hydrogen production when the electricity price is low. This presentation summarizes the results of several economic analyses of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems and they key overall conclusions from those analyses.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,ENVIRONMENTAL↗