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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Reconceptualizing the Ir III Role in Metallaphotoredox Catalysis: From Strong Photooxidant to Potent Energy Donor

Dual Ir III /L n Ni II metallaphotoredox catalyzed C(sp 3 )–C(sp 2 ) cross-coupling reactions are widely assumed to proceed by photoinduced single electron transfer steps due to the highly oxidizing Ir III * excited state (Ir III = [Ir(dF(CF 3 )ppy) 2 (dtbbpy)] + [PF 6 ] – ; dF(CF 3 )ppy = 2-(2,4-difluorophenyl)-5-(trifluoromethyl)pyridine; L n = dtbbpy = 4,4'-di-tert-butyl-2,2'-bipyridine). Using time-resolved absorption and emission spectroscopy, we reveal that energy transfer between Ir III * and various LnNi II precatalysts and intermediates with k q ≥ 10 8 M –1 s –1 also drives catalysis. Specifically, the excited states of L n Ni II dihalide precatalysts/organometallic intermediates accessible by energy transfer appear to drive bond homolysis, halogen radical elimination, and reductive elimination reactions that facilitate formation of cross-coupled products. Energy transfer dynamics consequently circumvent the need for photoinduced electron transfer, thereby extending substrate scopes to coupling partners that cannot be oxidized by Ir III *. Within a cross-electrophile coupling model reaction between 4-bromobenzotrifluoride and bromocyclohexane, energy transfer activates the L n Ni II precatalyst at early reaction times before nucleophilic reductants are present. In the absence of Ir III , direct excitation of L n Ni II (Br) 2 also activates the precatalyst to form a L n Ni II (Br)(Aryl) intermediate. To compare energy transfer and electron transfer kinetics, we determined rate constants for reductive quenching by Br – (k SET = 4.1 × 10 8 M –1 s –1 ) and for the subsequent electron transfer from reduced Ir III•– to L n Ni II (Br) 2 (k SET = 4.1 × 10 7 M –1 s –1 ) using Stern-Volmer analysis and pulse radiolysis, respectively. Energy transfer rate constants are competitive with the electron transfer rate constants and energy transfer is a parallel pathway within metallaphotoredox catalysis. Exploiting the energy transfer mechanism, we demonstrate highly selective cross-electrophile coupling between 4-chlorobenzotrifluoride and bromocyclohexane to form exclusively cross-coupled product. Here, with alkyl-trifluoroborate nucleophiles that do not reductively quench IrIII* emission, transmetalation with L n Ni II (Br/Cl)(Aryl) followed by energy transfer also drives excited state reductive elimination to form C(sp 3 )–C(sp 2 ) cross-coupled product. Similarly, energy transfer rather than Ni II oxidation drives C(sp 2 )–OR reductive elimination, despite the strongly oxidizing ability of Ir III *. In total, these reactions demonstrate energy transfer processes from Ir III * to L n Ni II in metallaphotoredox catalysis that can unlock alternative reactive pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Star products on graded manifolds and α′-corrections to Courant algebroids from string theory

Courant algebroids, originally used to study integrability conditions for Dirac structures, have turned out to be of central importance to study the effective supergravity limit of string theory. The search for a geometric description of T-duality leads to Double Field Theory (DFT), whose gauge algebra is governed by the C-bracket, a generalization of the Courant bracket in the sense that it reduces to the latter by solving a specific constraint. Recently, in DFT deformations of the C-bracket and O(d, d)-invariant bilinear form to first order in the closed string sigma model coupling, α′ were derived by analyzing the transformation properties of the Neveu-Schwarz B-field. By choosing a particular Poisson structure on the Drinfel’d double corresponding to the Courant algebroid structure of the generalized tangent bundle, we are able to interpret the C-bracket and bilinear form in terms of Poisson brackets. As a result, we reproduce the α′-deformations for a specific solution to the strong constraint of DFT as expansion of a graded version of the Moyal-Weyl star product.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Historic Global Biomass Burning Emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) Based on Merging Satellite Observations with Proxies and Fire Models (1750-2015)

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 petagrams of carbon per year. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990's after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 percent of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Biomass burning; Satellite observations; computer ↗

Hydrogen Production System Scaling Using a High-Fidelity Simulation-Optimization Framework

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are widely used for hydrogen production, yet few validated, high-fidelity tools can reliably guide scale-up. Using measured performance from a 50-hour hardware-in-the-loop pilot test, a physics-based, plant-level model of a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer and its balance-of-plant (BoP) subsystems is developed and validated. The model couples electrochemistry and thermal/flow submodels and is calibrated against pilot test data via a genetic algorithm (GA) workflow. Validation yields a mean absolute percentage error (APE) of 0.43% for cell voltage and stack power. Two scale-out strategies are then benchmarked under a common 7-day wind-and-photovoltaic (PV) profile: (i) linear duplication of 1.25 MW blocks and (ii) shared-BoP architectures. Sharing BoP between stacks reduces BoP energy by 27% at 10 MW and 34% at 100 MW (vs. linear duplication) and improves system specific energy consumption (SEC) to 52.9 and 52.6 kWh/kg, respectively (from 54.0 kWh/kg with linear duplication). Partial-load studies (25-100% set-point) show that cumulative hydrogen production remains nearly constant down to 50% load because all cases use the same weekly renewable-energy input. Below 50%, the power cap limits how much energy can be used within 168 h, which reduces hydrogen output. The model further indicates that the practical operating optimum lies between 50% and 85% load, where efficiency gains begin to appear without significant loss in hydrogen output. Moreover, the efficiency gains at lower loads are offset by reduced production. The validated framework supports scenario-based engineering trade-off studies for large configurations (10-100 MW) and for operating policies under variable renewables.

08 HYDROGEN↗

γ-ray measurements in fast-neutron-induced reactions on 203 Tl

Fast-neutron-induced reactions can be used to characterize reaction mechanisms, investigate nuclear structure, and impose constraints on nuclear models. Because of the difficulty in predicting such effects, experimental data are important to constrain models. Thallium isotopes located close to the doubly magic Pb 208 nucleus are important for comparison with shell-model calculations. Study the population of excited states in Tl 203 and lighter isotopes in such reactions. Our methods are as follows. γ -ray cross sections were measured. The data were taken by using the Germanium Array for Neutron-Induced Excitations spectrometer. The pulsed neutron source of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center's Weapons Neutron Research facility provided neutrons in the energy range from 1 to 300 MeV. The time-of-flight technique was used to determine the incident neutron energies. Cross sections for emission of several γ rays in 20 reaction channels were determined. Candidates for the intruder 9 / 2 - state in Tl 203 , from the odd proton in the h 9 / 2 orbital, and the first 5 + states in Tl 202 , 204 , from admixture of configurations, were identified. The excitation energy of the candidate 9 / 2 - , π h 9 / 2 state is in good agreement with the theoretical prediction from a semi-empirical weak-coupling model and its half-life is in the range of tens of nanoseconds. The feeding of a previously known isomer in Tl 202 exhibits similarities with the feeding of other isomers in this mass region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The aluminium-26 distribution in a cosmological simulation of a Milky Way-type Galaxy

Context . The 1.8 MeV γ -rays corresponding to the decay of the radioactive isotope 26 Al (with a half-life of 0.72 Myr ) have been observed by the SPI detector on the INTEGRAL spacecraft and extensively used as a tracer of star formation and current nucleosynthetic activity in the Milky Way Galaxy. Further information is encoded in the observation related to the higher 26 Al content found in regions of the Galaxy with the highest line-of-sight (LoS) velocity relative to an observer located in the Solar System. However, this feature remains unexplained. Aims . We ran a cosmological “zoom-in” chemodynamical simulation of a Milky Way-type galaxy, including the production and decays of radioactive nuclei in a fully self-consistent way. We then analyzed the results to follow the evolution of 26 Al throughout the lifetime of the simulated galaxy to provide a new method for interpreting the 26 Al observations. Methods . We included the massive star sources of 26 Al in the Galaxy and its radioactive decay into a state-of-the-art galactic chemical evolution model, coupled with cosmological growth and hydrodynamics. This approach allowed us to follow the spatial and temporal evolution of the 26 Al content in the simulated galaxy. Results . Our results are in agreement with the observations with respect to the fact that gas particles in the simulation with relatively higher 26 Al content also have the highest LoS velocities. On the other hand, gas particles with relatively lower 26 Al content (i.e., not bright enough to be observed) generally display the lowest LoS velocities. However, this result is not conclusive because the overall rotational velocity of our simulated galaxy is higher than that observed for cold CO gas in the Milky Way Galaxy. Furthermore, we found no significant correlation between gas temperature, rotational velocity, and 26 Al content at any given radius. We also found the presence of transient 26 Al-rich spots at low LoS velocities and we show that one such spot had been captured by the INTEGRAL/SPI data. Based on our model, we present a prediction for the detection of 1.8 MeV γ -rays by the future COSI mission. We find that according to our model, the new instrument will be able to observe similar 26 Al-emission patterns to those seen by INTEGRAL/SPI.

Wehmeyer, B. (ORCID:0009000254149292)↗

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm↗

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor

Ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are important trace gases for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions have been crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as the trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of ozone and water vapor available since mid 2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the new capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). The recently released MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) assimilates version 4.2 MLS ozone, water vapor and other chemically-reactive species with the NASA GEOS model coupled to a stratospheric-only chemistry mechanism and transport constrained to the MERRA-2 reanalysis. While the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1% of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data may provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Using the same GEOS CoDAS configuration as M2-SCREAM, we will present a series of experiments to investigate if water vapor trends are consistent with the assimilation of SAGE observations with and without Aura retrievals, and to determine if the assimilation of SAGE observations produces a steady product for trend analysis, especially as the end of the Aura mission nears. In our experiments, assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles results in water vapor fields more consistent with experiments that assimilate MLS v5; however, in the polar regions SAGE III/ISS observations are not available and the modelled values are unconstrained. We are encouraged by the positive benefit assimilating the less frequent SAGE III/ISS observations has on stratospheric composition. Sensitivity experiments such as these will allow us to assess the added value of SAGE data for continued monitoring of the stratospheric composition for climate and ozone recovery assessments.

K Emma Knowland↗

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change, including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2 -induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2 ; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An analysis of model proton-coupled electron transfer reactions via the mixed quantum-classical Liouville approach

The nonadiabatic dynamics of model proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions is investigated for the first time using a surface-hopping algorithm based on the solution of the mixed quantum-classical Liouville equation (QCLE). This method provides a rigorous treatment of quantum coherence/decoherence effects in the dynamics of mixed quantum-classical systems, which is lacking in the molecular dynamics with quantum transitions surface-hopping approach commonly used for simulating PCET reactions. Within this approach, the protonic and electronic coordinates are treated quantum mechanically and the solvent coordinate evolves classically on both single adiabatic surfaces and on coherently coupled pairs of adiabatic surfaces. Both concerted and sequential PCET reactions are studied in detail under various subsystem-bath coupling conditions and insights into the dynamical principles underlying PCET reactions are gained. Notably, an examination of the trajectories reveals that the system spends the majority of its time on the average of two coherently coupled adiabatic surfaces, during which a phase enters into the calculation of an observable. In general, the results of this paper demonstrate the applicability of QCLE-based surface-hopping dynamics to the study of PCET and emphasize the importance of mean surface evolution and decoherence effects in the calculation of PCET rate constants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the Time Resolution of Hyper-Spectral Infrared Sounding Observations With Trajectory Enhancement

Low Earth orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant potential for characterizing the complex evolution of thermodynamic environments favorable for convective initiation and ongoing convection. The snapshots at fixed local times are unable to provide the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving convective environment. A novel methodology using trajectory modeling coupled with satellite soundings was developed to create proximity soundings near NCEI Storm Events to investigate differences in severe weather environments (Kalmus et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0055.1). This methodology was recently extended to entire satellite swaths forward in time up to six hours into the future and was evaluated during NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in a quasi-operational setting (Kahn et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0204.1). This methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite observing time to recreate future soundings of temperature and moisture at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. Using coincident Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) rainfall estimates, we show that convective available potential energy (CAPE) is increased and convective inhibition (CIN) is decreased at times and locations where convection initiated. This methodology was evaluated with ERA5 data sampled to mimic the satellite observing swaths (Richardson et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-97). Approximately 60–90% of the temporal and spatial variability in temperature and humidity is explained by parcel advection using trajectory modeling. This method will be applied to the multi-decadal LEO satellite record and could be used to examine capabilities of future satellite missions such as the GeoXO mission.

Emily Berndt↗

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗

A hybrid, coupled approach for modeling charged fluids from the nano to the mesoscale

Here, we develop and demonstrate a new, hybrid simulation approach for charged fluids, which combines the accuracy of the nonlocal, classical density functional theory (cDFT) with the efficiency of the Poisson–Nernst–Planck (PNP) equations. The approach is motivated by the fact that the more accurate description of the physics in the cDFT model is required only near the charged surfaces, while away from these regions the PNP equations provide an acceptable representation of the ionic system. We formulate the hybrid approach in two stages. The first stage defines a coupled hybrid model in which the PNP and cDFT equations act independently on two overlapping domains, subject to suitable interface coupling conditions. At the second stage we apply the principles of the alternating Schwarz method to the hybrid model by using the interface conditions to define the appropriate boundary conditions and volume constraints exchanged between the PNP and the cDFT subdomains. Numerical examples with two representative examples of ionic systems demonstrate the numerical properties of the method and its potential to reduce the computational cost of a full cDFT calculation, while retaining the accuracy of the latter near the charged surfaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Effect of Ice Nuclei Efficiency on Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds from Large-Eddy Simulations

The effects of ice nuclei (IN) efficiency on the persistent ice formation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds (AMCs) are investigated using a large-eddy simulation model, coupled to a bin microphysics scheme with a prognostic IN formulation. In the three cases where the IN efficiency is high, ice formation and IN depletion are fast. When the IN concentration is 1 and 10 g -1 , IN are completely depleted and the cloud becomes purely liquid phase before the end of the 24-h simulation. When the IN concentration is 100 g -1 , the IN supply is sufficient but the liquid water is completely consumed so that the cloud dissipates quickly. In the three cases when the IN efficiency is low, ice formation is negligible in the first several hours but becomes significant as the temperature is decreased through longwave cooling. Before the end of the simulation, the cloud is in mixed phase when the IN concentration is 1 and 10 g -1 but dissipates when the IN concentration is 100 g -1 . In the case where two types of IN are considered, ice formation persists throughout the simulation. Analysis shows that as the more efficient IN are continuously removed through ice formation, the less efficient IN gradually nucleate more ice crystals because the longwave cooling decreases the cloud temperature. This mechanism is further illustrated with a simple model. These results indicate that a spectrum of IN efficiency is necessary to maintain the persistent ice formation in AMCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in the US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to the non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously as both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high-ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite the large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 to 13%, comparable to the present, and high-ozone episodes with a maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) ozone concentration over 70ppbv are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High-ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes; thus improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗