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Results for “Sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,567 records · Page 87
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation with the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) of which land-surface parameters are of greatest importance in atmospheric modeling

Land-surface parameterizations based on a statistical-dynamical have been suggested recently to improve the representation of the surface forcing from heterogeneous land in atmospheric models. With this approach, land-surface characteristics are prescribed by probability density functions (PDFs) rather than single 'representative' values as in 'big-leaf' parameterizations. Yet the use of many PDFs results in an increased computational burden and requires the complex problem of representing covariances between PDFs to be addressed. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of a land-surface parameterization for atmospheric modeling was performed to evaluate the surface parameters most important to the variability of surface heat fluxes. The Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) used for this analysis determines the relative contribution of individual input parameters to the variance of energy fluxes resulting from a heterogeneous surface. By simultaneously varying all parameters according to their individual probability density functions, the number of computations needed is very much reduced by this technique. This analysis demonstrates that most of the variability of surface heat fluxes may be described by the distributions of relative stomatal conductance and surface roughness. Thus, the statistical-dynamical approach may be simplified by the use of only these two probability density functions.

Collins, Dan C.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Decision Analysis of Stereotactic Radiation Surgery Versus Stereotactic Radiation Surgery and Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy for 1 to 3 Brain Metastases

Purpose: Although whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) is effective for controlling intracranial disease, it is also associated with neurocognitive side effects. It is unclear whether a theoretically improved quality of life after stereotactic radiation surgery (SRS) alone relative to that after SRS with adjuvant WBRT would justify the omission of WBRT, given the higher risk of intracranial failure. This study compares SRS alone with SRS and WBRT, to evaluate the theoretical benefits of intracranial tumor control with adjuvant WBRT against its possible side effects, using quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) as a primary endpoint. Methods and Materials: A Markov decision analysis model was used to compare QALE in a cohort of patients with 1 to 3 brain metastases and Karnofsky performance status of at least 70. Patients were treated with SRS alone or with SRS immediately followed by WBRT. Patients treated with SRS alone underwent surveillance magnetic resonance imaging and received salvage WBRT if they developed intracranial relapse. All patients whose cancer relapsed after WBRT underwent simulation as dying of intracranial progression. Model parameters were estimated from published literature. Results: Treatment with SRS yielded 6.2 quality-adjusted life months (QALMs). The addition of initial WBRT reduced QALE by 1.2 QALMs. On one-way sensitivity analysis, the model was sensitive only to a single parameter, the utility associated with the state of no evidence of disease after SRS alone. At values greater than 0.51, SRS alone was preferred. Conclusions: In general, SRS alone is suggested to have improved quality of life in patients with 1 to 3 brain metastases compared to SRS and immediate WBRT. Our results suggest that immediate treatment with WBRT after SRS can be reserved for patients who would have a poor performance status regardless of treatment. These findings are stable under a wide range of assumptions.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

PSUADE

PSUADE (Problem Solving testbed for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration) is a mathematical software useful for performing uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis.

Tong, CharlesH↗
DOE OSTI2020

(U) Radiation Transport Sensitivity Capabilities Applicable to INRAD

Intrinsic radiation (INRAD) calculations involve calculating the neutron and gamma-ray source rate densities from given compositions and densities of materials and the subsequent transport of the neutrons and gamma rays to detectors that may be stood off or internal. Related problems deal with measures of subcritical multiplication, such as the k eff eigenvalue. Realistic estimates of the uncertainties in calculated INRAD results are desired. One approach to uncertainty quantification begins with sensitivity analysis. This report describes the present capabilities that XCP-7 can apply to compute sensitivities in INRAD problems and areas where work is needed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating large scale aqueous organic redox flow battery performance with a hybrid numerical and machine learning framework

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low-capacity degradation in 10 cm$^2$ cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier to commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm$^2$ DHP-based AORFB by combining a physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. Such combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1983

Thermal analysis research applicable to space station technology needs

Thermal analysis, optimization, and software research and development at the NASA Langley Research Center which is applicable to analytical design calculations for space station structures are summarized. Topics discussed include integrated thermal-structural software, improved thermal radiation analysis, solution techniques for transient temperatures, unified thermal-structural finite elements, thermal structural sensitivity analysis and optimization, and concept and performance analysis for heat pipes.

Adelman, H. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symmetry-specific characterization of bond orientation order in DNA-assembled nanoparticle lattices

Bond-orientational order in DNA-assembled nanoparticles lattices is explored with the help of recently introduced Symmetry-specific Bond Order Parameters (SymBOPs). Here, this approach provides a more sensitive analysis of local order than traditional scalar BOPs, facilitating the identification of coherent domains at the single bond level. The present study expands the method initially developed for assemblies of anisotropic particles to the isotropic ones or cases where particle orientation information is unavailable. The SymBOP analysis was applied to experiments on DNA-frame-based assembly of nanoparticle lattices. It proved highly sensitive in identifying coherent crystalline domains with different orientations, as well as detecting topological defects, such as dislocations. Furthermore, the analysis distinguishes individual sublattices within a single crystalline domain, such as pair of interpenetrating FCC lattices within a cubic diamond. The results underscore the versatility and robustness of SymBOPs in characterizing ordering phenomena, making them valuable tools for investigating structural properties in various systems.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biological Valorization of Natural Gas for the Production of Lactic Acid: Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment

Due to the availability of natural gas, shale gas, and flared gas, there is increased interest in converting methane in these gases into commodity chemicals via cost-effective and sustainable processes. Recently, we have demonstrated an efficient process concept converting methane to lactic acid (LA) by methanotrophic bacteria with high carbon flux, pivoting potentials for commercialization. Herein, we present a first-of-kind conceptual design and a techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a biorefinery process with calculated minimum selling prices. This study includes both sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis for key cost drivers and for projecting path forwards in research and development. The analyses reveal that the conversion efficiency, LA product titer, LA productivity, and gas flow rate have the most significant impacts on cost. The MSP varies from $5.83-$2.17/kg LA depending on these key process attributes. Further, a life cycle assessment of this process concept is evaluated and compared to understand the sustainable aspects. In this TEA study, the bio-upgrading process from natural gas to LA presents a potentially promising approach in terms of the feedstock versatility, economic viability, and environmental impact.

BIOMASS FUELS,NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS1973

An analysis of atmospheric entry trajectories for manned and unmanned missions to the planet Venus

A unified atmospheric density model is presented for the planet Venus, and this model is compatible with Russian and American data obtained during the 1967 Venus launch opportunity. Trajectory characteristics involved in atmospheric entry are discussed with reference to roll-control modulation and entry corridor. Subsequent to a trajectory-oriented discussion of potential Venus mission characteristics, a parametric analysis of manned and unmanned vehicle entry trajectories into the Venusian atmosphere is presented. A sensitivity analysis with reference to atmospheric density deviations is included to show the dependence of corridor depth on the atmospheric density profile.

Craig, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability Analysis and Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Circular Composite Cylinders Under Axial Compression

This report describes the preliminary results of an investigation on component reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of thin-walled circular composite cylinders with average diameter and average length of 15 inches. Structural reliability is based on axial buckling strength of the cylinder. Both Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method are considered for reliability analysis with the latter incorporated into the reliability-based structural optimization problem. To improve the efficiency of reliability sensitivity analysis and design optimization solution, the buckling strength of the cylinder is estimated using a second-order response surface model. The sensitivity of the reliability index with respect to the mean and standard deviation of each random variable is calculated and compared. The reliability index is found to be extremely sensitive to the applied load and elastic modulus of the material in the fiber direction. The cylinder diameter was found to have the third highest impact on the reliability index. Also the uncertainty in the applied load, captured by examining different values for its coefficient of variation, is found to have a large influence on cylinder reliability. The optimization problem for minimum weight is solved subject to a design constraint on element reliability index. The methodology, solution procedure and optimization results are included in this report.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the antiknock effect of anisole through an ignition, speciation and modeling study of its blends with isooctane

In order to unravel the reaction pathways relevant to anisole co-oxidation within a fuel blend, a detailed study of isooctane/anisole blends was performed with the ULille RCM. Ignition delays as well as mole fraction profiles were measured during a two-stage ignition delay using sampling and GC techniques. These results are used to validate a kinetic model developed from ab initio calculations for the most relevant rate constants which included H-atom abstraction reactions from anisole, and reactions on the potential energy surfaces of methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 . Pressure dependent rate constants were computed for the methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 reactive systems using master equation code analysis. The new kinetic model shows good agreement with the experimental data. Dual brute-force sensitivity analysis was performed, on both first- and second-stages of ignition, allowing the identification of the most important reactions in the prediction of both ignition delays. It was observed that while pure anisole does not show NTC behavior, a 60/40 isooctane/anisole blend displays such behavior, as well as two-stage ignition. This suggests anisole addition may not be as beneficial to knock resistance as expected from its high octane number. The kinetic modeling results demonstrate the importance of H-abstraction reactions both from the methoxy group and from the aryl ring in ortho-position and the addition of the resultant radicals to O2, mostly leading to the formation of polar or non-aromatic products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of magnetic islands in permanent magnet stellarators using the gradient and Hessian methods

Stellarator plasmas are known to be very sensitive to perturbations in the magnetic field. The permanent magnet stellarator was in part developed as a solution to high machining tolerances placed on the shape properties of electromagnetic coils in traditional stellarators. However, as a consequence of this high sensitivity to the field structure, sensitivities of permanent magnet stellarator plasmas to perturbations of permanent magnet properties must necessarily be well-understood. The gradient and Hessian matrix methods have been previously demonstrated to be useful sensitivity analysis methods for modular coils. We apply these two methods to the study of island width sensitivities in both the MUSE and PM4STELL permanent magnet stellarator projects. These sensitivity methods were used to determine the relative impacts of permanent magnet parameter perturbations on island widths in the vacuum field approximation of both stellarator equilibria. The square of resonant magnetic field perturbation is used here as a proxy for island width. In particular, gradients of magnetizations of individual magnets were examined in MUSE, as well as gradients of magnet group displacements informed by device design. Three different forms of permanent magnet magnetization perturbations are investigated for MUSE, and the flux surface response to perturbations is demonstrated. The Hessian matrix method is applied to PM4STELL, illustrating the sensitivity of dominant island widths to displacements of toroidal wedge structures. These methods allow for selective direction of experimental resources toward regions of heightened sensitivity, while constraints on less impactful permanent magnet parameters can be relaxed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Simulation-Length Requirements in the Loads Analysis of Offshore Floating Wind Turbines: Preprint

The goal of this paper is to examine the appropriate length of a floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) simulation - a fundamental question that needs to be answered to develop design requirements. To examine this issue, a loads analysis of an example FOWT was performed in FAST with varying simulation lengths. The offshore wind system used was the OC3-Hywind spar buoy, which was developed for use in the International Energy Agency Code Comparison Collaborative Project and supports NREL's offshore 5-megawatt baseline turbine. Realistic metocean data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and repeated periodic wind files were used to excite the structure. The results of the analysis clearly show that loads do not increase for longer simulations. In regards to fatigue, a sensitivity analysis shows that the procedure used for counting half cycles is more important than the simulation length itself. Based on these results, neither the simulation length nor the periodic wind files affect response statistics and loads for FOWTs (at least for the spar studied here); a result in contrast to the offshore oil and gas industry, where running simulations of at least 3 hours in length is common practice.

17 WIND ENERGY↗