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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

An Optimal Parameterization Framework for Infrasonic Tomography of the Stratospheric Winds Using Non-Local Sources

A method is developed to apply acoustic tomography methods to a localized network of infrasound arrays with intention of monitoring the atmosphere state in the region around the network using non-local sources without requiring knowledge of the precise source location or non-local atmosphere state. Closely spaced arrays provide a means to estimate phase velocities of signals that can provide limiting bounds on certain characteristics of the atmosphere. Larger spacing between such clusters provide a means to estimate celerity from propagation times along multiple unique stratospherically or thermospherically ducted propagation paths and compute more precise estimates of the atmosphere state. In order to avoid the commonly encountered complex, multimodal distributions for parametric atmosphere descriptions and to maximize the computational efficiency of the method, an optimal parametrization framework is constructed. This framework identifies the ideal combination of parameters for tomography studies in specific regions of the atmosphere and statistical model selection analysis shows that high quality corrections to the middle atmosphere winds can be obtained using as few as three parameters. Lastly, comparison of the resulting estimates for synthetic data sets shows qualitative agreement between the middle atmosphere winds and those estimated from infrasonic traveltime observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimation of the reaction rate for the formation of CH3O from H + H2CO - Implications for chemistry in the solar system

Troe's (1977) approximate theory is presently used in conjunction with transition state theory to estimate the rate coefficient of the reaction by which CO is reduced to CH4; attention is given to the role that may be played in the reduction process by the formation of the CH3O radical from H + H2CO. Attention is given to the implications of such a reaction (1) for the CO chemistry on Jupiter and within the solar nebula, (2) for the interpretation of such experimental results as those of Bar-Nun and Shaviv (1975) and Bar-Nun and Chang (1983), and (3) for organic synthesis in the prebiotic terrestrial atmosphere.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

NLR HPC Kestrel Jobs Data

Overview: Anonymized job-level records from the Kestrel HPC system at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). Each record represents a Slurm batch job with scheduling metadata, resource requests, utilization, energy estimates, and efficiency metrics. Sensitive fields (user, account, job name, submit line, working directory, submit script, and job type) are replaced with 7-character cryptographic hashes. System & Timeframe: Kestrel is located at the NLR campus. Standard compute nodes have 104 cores and 256 GB RAM; bigmem nodes have 2,000 GB. GPU nodes (gpu-h100 partition) use NVIDIA H100 GPUs. Data covers jobs submitted August 2023 through December 2025. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, EERE. Files: esif.hpc.kestrel.job-anon.zip — Anonymized job records (Hive-partitioned Parquet) datacard.md — Full dataset documentation ~11 million rows, 50 variables. Readable with PyArrow, pandas, DuckDB, Apache Spark, or any Parquet-compatible tool. Data Collection: Jobs collected via sacct with timezone-aware export (SLURM_TIME_FORMAT="%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S%z"), loaded into PostgreSQL. Calculated columns updated via database triggers and batch functions. All timestamps use timestamptz and correctly handle DST transitions. Preprocessing: Anonymization of name, user, account, submit_line, work_dir, submit_script, and job_type via 7-char hex hashes Derived columns: queue_wait, cpu_eff, max/min/avg_mem_eff, energy estimates Simplified job state mapping (e.g., "CANCELLED by 132357" → "CANCELLED") Boolean flags: python_job, reframe_job Temporal decomposition: year, month, day, day_of_week, hour, minute from submit_time Shared node tracking: shared_job_count, nodes_shared, jobs_shared Key Variables: Scheduling: job_id, partition, state_simple, submit_time, start_time, end_time, queue_wait Resources: nodes_req/used, processors_req/used, memory_req, wallclock_req/used, gpus_requested Efficiency: cpu_eff, max/min/avg_mem_eff Energy: cpu_energy_tdp_estimated_max/used_watt_hours, consumed_energy_raw_joules, consumed_energy_raw_watt_hours Sharing: shared_job_count, nodes_shared, jobs_shared Partitions: short, standard, debug, gpu-h100 Job States: CANCELLED, COMPLETED, FAILED, PENDING, RUNNING QoS Levels: normal, high Important Notes: Timestamps include timezone offsets; DST transitions are handled correctly, though adding intervals across DST boundaries requires offset adjustment shared_job_count reflects physical node co-residency, not use of the shared partition Job step records and raw Slurm JSONB fields are excluded Do not attempt to re-identify individuals from hashed fields

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

National and regional waste stream in the United States: conformance and disparity

Accurate estimation of municipal solid waste (MSW) composition is critical for efficient waste management. In the United States, site-specific and material flow approaches determine the MSW composition at regional and national levels. The material flow-based national estimates are determined by the US EPA; the US EPA’s estimates are known to differ substantially from the aggregated tonnage of MSW managed by waste handling facilities in the United States. However, the material class-specific discrepancies of the US EPA’s material flow approach resulting in these differences are unknown. To find the basis of these discrepancies, we analyze the discarded MSW stream of 27 US states, which roughly accounts for 73 percent of the US population. Our analysis indicates that the material flow-based national estimates are accurate for the food, plastic, and glass material classes. In contrast, we find that the US EPA’s material flow-based predictions underestimate paper waste disposal by at least 15 million tons annually. These differences likely stem from incorrect assumptions of residence time. These results highlight the material class-specific strengths and drawbacks of the US EPA’s material flow-based MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Distributed Speed Harmonization and Optimal Maneuver Planning on Multi-Lane Roads

A commonly proposed method for improving traffic flow on freeways is speed harmonization. The effectiveness of current speed harmonization approaches, such as variable speed limits, is extremely reliant on human driver compliance. Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to come to market within this decade, offering the opportunity to eliminate or reduce the reliance on human compliance. However, extending current roadside infrastructure-based approaches of assigning centrally computed harmonization speeds to individual vehicles is, costly. An alternative approach is to have individual vehicles estimate the traffic state on-board and make distributed decisions to achieve the harmonization goal autonomously. In this work, we present a distributed algorithm for estimating the current average speed of traffic. We couple this with a distributed 2D maneuver planning approach. Then, we study the impact on traffic efficiency in terms of energy consumption and travel time at varying CAV penetration rates.

Goulet, Nathan↗

Evolution, Current State of the Art, and Interpretation of Aircraft-Based Methane Emission Quantification at the Natural Gas Basin-Level

Accurately quantifying methane (CH4) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry is challenging given the existence of many potential emission sources, differences in industry practices and regulations, and often incomplete or out-of-date activity data. It is thus important to regularly assess emission inventories and support improvements by deriving independent estimates using state-of-the-science approaches. Recent research has provided CH4 emission estimates from the O&G supply chains based on different measurement techniques at multiple spatio-temporal scales. Natural gas basin-scale aircraft-based atmospheric measurements indicate greater CH4 emissions than emission inventories based on up-scaling of component-/facility-level emission measurements from a relatively small sample size. Here we present results from a coordinated field study that compares concurrent CH4 emission measurements using different techniques and scales to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, with a focus on the aircraft-based estimation method. We describe the importance of (i) decades of measurement technology development, (ii) experience in designing measurement sampling strategies and aligning system boundaries, and (Hi) properly interpreting CH4 emission estimates for successfully reconciling aircraft-based measurements with emission inventories and for identifying CH4 emission mitigation potential. We illustrate that aircraft-based top-down estimates represent a brief snapshot of total basin-level CH4 emissions. Thus, a high spatio-temporally resolved bottom-up emission inventory is needed to identify key CH4 sources (including episodic sources) at the process level. While this paper provides a brief overview of the overall study design and findings, its focus is on the implementation of the aircraft measurements and its interpretation and results. A separate paper describes in more detail the overall organizational structure of the study as well as the study implications from an industry perspective.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Improving qubit readout with hidden Markov models

We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit-state transitions and makes for a robust classification scheme with higher starting-state assignment fidelity than when compared to a multivariate Gaussian or a support vector machine scheme. Therefore, the method also eliminates the qubit-dependent readout time optimization requirement in current schemes. Using a HMM state discriminator we estimate fidelities reaching the ideal limit. Unsupervised learning gives access to transition matrix, priors, and IQ distributions, providing a toolbox for studying qubit-state dynamics during strong projective readout.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Performance Model of MapReduce Iterative Applications for Hybrid Cloud Bursting

Hybrid cloud bursting (i.e., leasing temporary off-premise cloud resources to boost the overall capacity during peak utilization) can be a cost-effective way to deal with the increasing complexity of big data analytics, especially for iterative applications. However, the low throughput, high latency network link between the on-premise and off-premise resources (“weak link”) makes maintaining scalability difficult. While several data locality techniques have been designed for big data bursting on hybrid clouds, their effectiveness is difficult to estimate in advance. Yet such estimations are critical, because they help users decide whether the extra pay-as-you-go cost incurred by using the off-premise resources justifies the runtime speed-up. To this end, the current paper presents a performance model and methodology to estimate the runtime of iterative MapReduce applications in a hybrid cloud-bursting scenario. The paper focuses on the overhead incurred by the weak link at fine granularity, for both the map and the reduce phases. This approach enables high estimation accuracy, as demonstrated by extensive experiments at scale using a mix of real-world iterative MapReduce applications from standard big data benchmarking suites that cover a broad spectrum of data patterns. As a result, not only are the produced estimations accurate in absolute terms compared with experimental results, but they are also up to an order of magnitude more accurate than applying state-of-art estimation approaches originally designed for single-site MapReduce deployments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

Classification and area estimation of land covers in Kansas using ground-gathered and LANDSAT digital data

Ground-gathered data and LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) digital data from 1981 were analyzed to produce a classification of Kansas land areas into specific types called land covers. The land covers included rangeland, forest, residential, commercial/industrial, and various types of water. The analysis produced two outputs: acreage estimates with measures of precision, and map-type or photo products of the classification which can be overlaid on maps at specific scales. State-level acreage estimates were obtained and substate-level land cover classification overlays and estimates were generated for selected geographical areas. These products were found to be of potential use in managing land and water resources.

May, G. A.↗

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Applications of generalized inverses to estimation in dynamic systems.

Generalized matrix inverses are used to obtain an estimation procedure for estimation of the state vector of a dynamic system. This sequential procedure is studied analytically with respect to the choice of an arbitrary vector. The covariance matrix of the estimator is determined and compared to the optimal Kalman type procedure. A numerical example illustrates the procedure and compares it to the optimal one.

Prochaska, B. J.↗

Uncertainty in gridded CO 2 emissions estimates

We are interested in the spatial distribution of fossil-fuel-related emissions of CO 2 for both geochemical and geopolitical reasons, but it is important to understand the uncertainty that exists in spatially explicit emissions estimates. Working from one of the widely used gridded data sets of CO 2 emissions, we examine the elements of uncertainty, focusing on gridded data for the United States at the scale of 1° latitude by 1° longitude. Uncertainty is introduced in the magnitude of total United States emissions, the magnitude and location of large point sources, the magnitude and distribution of non-point sources, and from the use of proxy data to characterize emissions. For the United States, we develop estimates of the contribution of each component of uncertainty. At 1° resolution, in most grid cells, the largest contribution to uncertainty comes from how well the distribution of the proxy (in this case population density) represents the distribution of emissions. In other grid cells, the magnitude and location of large point sources make the major contribution to uncertainty. Uncertainty in population density can be important where a large gradient in population density occurs near a grid cell boundary. Uncertainty is strongly scale-dependent with uncertainty increasing as grid size decreases. In conclusion, uncertainty for our data set with 1° grid cells for the United States is typically on the order of ±150%, but this is perhaps not excessive in a data set where emissions per grid cell vary over 8 orders of magnitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control of Superconducting Quantum Circuits (17-ERD-006)

The overall goal of this project was to develop and experimentally validate algorithmic, FPGA-based control of a transmon. Though we were not able to conduct the final control experiments, we did develop a significant new capability to design advanced algorithms for specific physics tasks and then efficiently implement them on an FPGA. These algorithms are calculated with sub-microsecond latencies, in particular weak measurement phase estimation in 112 ns and Bayesian estimation of qubit state probabilities every 160 ns. Experimental measurements with a qubit system validate real-time weak measurements on the FPGA and demonstrate the validity of the Bayesian estimation of quantum trajectories.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electronic Waste (E-Waste) Recycling: Barriers and Opportunities for State, Local, and Tribal Governments

Electronic waste, or e-waste, encompasses end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, including computers, monitors, televisions, printers, cell phones, household appliances with electronic components, and small consumer devices containing batteries or circuitry. E-waste is one of the fastest-growing components of the U.S. waste stream, with nearly 8 million tons generated in 2022. E-waste presents two related public-interest considerations. First, e-waste contains economically and strategically important materials: base metals (copper, aluminum, iron, steel), precious metals (gold, silver, platinum group metals), and critical materials such as rare earth elements, gallium, and indium that appear on the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) 2025 List of Critical Minerals. Second, many electronic devices contain hazardous constituents - including lead, mercury, cadmium, and brominated flame retardants - as well as rechargeable batteries that can pose fire risks during handling. Effective management of these constituents helps protect workers, communities, and the environment. In the United States, it is estimated that less than 20% of e-waste is formally collected and recycled, leaving over 6 million tons landfilled or otherwise unrecovered. This fact sheet provides state and local decision-makers an overview of (1) e-waste composition and recoverable materials, (2) technology pathways used to recover those materials, and (3) examples of operational and partnership structures used to provide e-waste recycling capacity in the United States. It is intended to complement existing collection-program guidance available through U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Bound states of pseudo-Dirac dark matter

We study here the bound-state spectrum in a simple model of pseudo-Dirac dark matter, and examine how the rate of bound-state formation through radiative capture compares to Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation. We use this model as an example to delineate the new features induced by the presence of a mass splitting between the dark matter and a nearly-degenerate partner, compared to the case where only a single dark-matter-like state is present. We provide a simple analytic prescription for estimating the spectrum of bound states in systems containing a mass splitting, which in turn allows characterization of the resonances due to near-zero-energy bound states, and validate this estimate both for pseudo-Dirac dark matter and for the more complex case of wino dark matter. Furthermore, we demonstrate that for pseudo-Dirac dark matter the capture rate into deeply bound states is, to a good approximation, simply related to the Sommerfeld enhancement factor.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Monte Carlo-Based Method for Parallelizing Quasi-Static Time-Series Power System Simulations: Preprint

Both commercial and open source power system simulators run quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations sequentially. For yearlong high-resolution load profiles this sequential execution of load flows incurs long computation times. Parallelizing QSTS simulations on multiple processors is one possible way to reduce the computation time. Parallelization however introduces errors in the simulation results as the initial state of the system at the beginning of each parallelized time period is not known. In this work a Monte Carlo-based approach has been proposed to estimate the initial state of the system for each parallel simulation run to mitigate the errors in the final results. Classical sequential QSTS simulation is the chosen base case against which all other methods have been compared. Results presented in this paper show that the proposed method improves the simulation results considerably. This paper also discusses possible sensitivities of the proposed method to a number of tunable parameters. Additionally, sensitivity analysis results for a number of parameters have also been presented in the results section.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dual Extended Kalman Filter for the Identification of Time-Varying Human Manual Control Behavior

A Dual Extended Kalman Filter was implemented for the identification of time-varying human manual control behavior. Two filters that run concurrently were used, a state filter that estimates the equalization dynamics, and a parameter filter that estimates the neuromuscular parameters and time delay. Time-varying parameters were modeled as a random walk. The filter successfully estimated time-varying human control behavior in both simulated and experimental data. Simple guidelines are proposed for the tuning of the process and measurement covariance matrices and the initial parameter estimates. The tuning was performed on simulation data, and when applied on experimental data, only an increase in measurement process noise power was required in order for the filter to converge and estimate all parameters. A sensitivity analysis to initial parameter estimates showed that the filter is more sensitive to poor initial choices of neuromuscular parameters than equalization parameters, and bad choices for initial parameters can result in divergence, slow convergence, or parameter estimates that do not have a real physical interpretation. The promising results when applied to experimental data, together with its simple tuning and low dimension of the state-space, make the use of the Dual Extended Kalman Filter a viable option for identifying time-varying human control parameters in manual tracking tasks, which could be used in real-time human state monitoring and adaptive human-vehicle haptic interfaces.

manual control↗