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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

CACTI Radar b1 Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility deployed a large number of instruments to a region nearby the Sierra de Córdobas mountains in Argentina as part of the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign (1). During this campaign, four radars were installed at a site outside of Villa Yacanto as shown in Figure 1. As part of a post-campaign effort to improve the usability of these data, a significant activity was undertaken towards the calibration, correction, and improvement of the data quality of these radar datastreams. This process in ARM nomenclature is referred to as generating a “b1” datastream. While these “b1” standards may imply different corrections or standards for various ARM instruments, for radars it refers to a datastream that has been calibrated (and cross-calibrated), including a serious effort to deliver the highest-quality (well-characterized) data possible. This report details (i) the status/quality of the original “a1” (raw) data, (ii) the corrections and calibrations that are applied to generate these b1 datastreams, (iii) the details of the applied algorithms and how radar offset/calibration numbers were determined for the eventual corrections, and (iv) the new and flexible plug-in-based processing system designed during CACTI for radar b1 activities (current, future) that interfaces with ARM’s Data Integrator (ADI) and high-performance computing (HPC) system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A new subgrid-scale representation of hydrometeor fields using a multivariate PDF

Abstract. The subgrid-scale representation of hydrometeor fields is important for calculating microphysical process rates. In order to represent subgrid-scale variability, the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization uses a multivariate probability density function (PDF). In addition to vertical velocity, temperature, and moisture fields, the PDF includes hydrometeor fields. Previously, hydrometeor fields were assumed to follow a multivariate single lognormal distribution. Now, in order to better represent the distribution of hydrometeors, two new multivariate PDFs are formulated and introduced.The new PDFs represent hydrometeors using either a delta-lognormal or a delta-double-lognormal shape. The two new PDF distributions, plus the previous single lognormal shape, are compared to histograms of data taken from large-eddy simulations (LESs) of a precipitating cumulus case, a drizzling stratocumulus case, and a deep convective case. Finally, the warm microphysical process rates produced by the different hydrometeor PDFs are compared to the same process rates produced by the LES.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integration of a physics-based direct normal irradiance ($\mathrm{DNI}$) model to enhance the National Solar Radiation Database ($\mathrm{NSRDB}$)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is an extensively used dataset that furnishes satellite-retrieved solar resource data across the United States and an expanding list of other countries. Although the NSRDB uses a physical model to compute global horizontal irradiance (GHI), it currently employs an empirical approach based on surface observations to estimate cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). Recently, a new physics-based approach, known as the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to improve DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI integrates direct and scattered solar radiances within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead forecasting of DNI by incorporating it into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study incorporates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to produce high-spatiotemporal-resolution DNI data from satellite data. The accuracy of the NSRDB based on FARMS-DNI is analyzed using surface observations from 19 sites situated within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) and Solar Radiation (SOLRAD) networks, the University of Oregon (UO) network, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results demonstrate that FARMS-DNI reduces the significant overestimation of DNI in the conventional NSRDB at all surface sites, particularly in cloud overcast conditions classified using both satellite retrievals and surface observations. Consequently, this new model can effectively improve the overall accuracy of the NSRDB. The results also suggest that further improvement of DNI estimates at individual time steps, however, requires advanced satellite techniques and precise identification of clouds and retrieval of cloud properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Redetermination of the Dissociation Energy of MgO(+)

In 1986, we reported a dissociation energy (D(sub 0) of 2.31 eV for the X(sup 2)Pi ground state of MgO(+). This value was determined by computing the dissociation energy to the Mg(2+) + O(-) limit and adjusting the value to the Mg(+) + O limit using the experimental Ionization Potential (IP) of Mg(+) and the Electron Affinity (EA) of O. The success of this method relies on the assumption that there is little covalent contribution to the bonding. The very small (0.04 eV) correlation contribution to the binding energy was taken as corroboration for the validity of this approach. Our earlier theoretical value was estimated to be accurate to at least 0.2 eV. It is in excellent agreement with the subsequent value of 2.30 +/- 0.13 eV determined by Freiser and co-workers from photodissociation experiments. It is also consistent with the upper (less than 3.1 eV) and lower (greater than 1.1 eV) bounds determined by Rowe obtained by studying the reactions of Mg(+) with 03 and NO2. However, it is inconsistent with an upper bound of 1.7 eV reported by Kappes and Staley based on their failure to observe MgO(+) in the reaction of Mg(+) with N2O. The picture became somewhat clouded, however, by the recent guided-ion beam mass spectrometric studies of Dalleska and Armentrout. Their initial analysis of the reaction data for Mg(+) + O2 lead to a bond dissociation energy of 2.92 +/- 0.25 eV, which is considerably larger than the value of 2.47 +/- 0.06 eV deduced from their studies of the Mg(+)+NO2 reaction.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

The alpha Centauri Line of Sight: D/H Ratio, Physical Properties of Local Interstellar Gas, and Measurement of Heated Hydrogen (The 'Hydrogen Wall') Near the Heliopause

We analyze high-resolution spectra of the nearby (1.34 pc) stars alpha Cen A (G2 V) and alpha Cen B (K1 V), which were obtained with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. The observations consist of echelle spectra of the Mg II 2800 A and Fe II 2599 A resonance lines and the Lyman-alpha lines of hydrogen and deuterium. The interstellar gas has a velocity (v = - 18.0 +/- 0.2 km/s) consistent with the local flow vector proposed for this line of sight by Lailement & Berlin (1992). The temperature and nonthermal velocity inferred from the Fe II, Mg II, and D I line profiles are T = 5400 +/- 500 K and xi = 1.20 +/- 0.25 km/s, respectively. However, single-component fits to the H I Lyman-alpha lines yield a Doppler parameter (b(sub HI) = 11.80 km/s) that implies a significantly warmer temperature of 8350 K, and the velocity of the H I absorption (v = - 15.8 +/- 0.2 km/s) is redshifted by about 2.2 km/s with respect to the Fe II, Mg II, and D I lines. The one-component model of the interstellar gas suggests natural logarithm N base HI = 18.03 +/- 0.01 and D/H = (5.7 +/- 0.2) x 10(exp -6) . These parameters lead to a good fit to the observed spectra, but this model does not explain the higher temperature and redshift of H I relative to the other interstellar lines. The most sensible way to resolve the discrepancy between H(I) and the other lines is to add a second absorption component to the H(I) lines. This second component is hotter (T approx. equals 30,000 K), is redshifted relative to the primary component by 2-4 km/s, and has a column density too low to be detected in the Fe(II), Mg(II), and D(I) lines. We propose that the gas responsible for this component is located near the heliopause, consisting of the heated H I gas from the interstellar medium that is compressed by the solar wind. This so-called 'hydrogen wall' is predicted by recent multifluid gasdynamical models of the interstellar gas and solar wind interaction. Our data provide the first measurements of the temperature and column density of H(I) in the hydrogen wall. After considering the effects that a corresponding hydrogen wall around alpha Cen would have on our analysis, our best estimates for the parameters of the solar hydrogen wall are natural log N(sup (2))(H(I)) = 14.74 +/- 0.24, b(sup (2))(H(I)) = 21.9 +/- 1.7 km/s (corresponding to T = 29,000 +/- 5000 K), and v(sup (2))(H(I)) greater than -16km/s. Unfortunately, the existence of this heated H(I) reduces our ability to compute the H(I) column density of the interstellar medium accurately because, with slight alterations to our assumed stellar Lyman-alpha profiles, we discovered that acceptable two-component fits also exist with natural log N(H(I))approx. 17.6. We, therefore, quote large error bars for the H I column density along the alpha Cen line of sight, natural log N(H(I)) = 17.80 +/- 0.30. For this range in N(H(I)), n(H(I)) = 0.15 /cu.cm (+/- a factor of 2) and D/H = (0.5-1.9) x 10(exp -5). This is the first direct measurement of the H(I) density in a local cloud and allows us to predict the distance from the Sun to the edge of the local cloud along various lines of sight. This range in D/H is consistent with the value D/H = 1.6 x 10(exp -5) previously derived for the Capella and Procyon lines of sight. We cannot tell whether D/H ratio varies or is constant in the local interstellar medium, but we do find that the D(I)/Mg(II) ratio for the alpha Cen line of sight is about 4 times smaller than for the Capella and Procyon lines of sight. Therefore, either D/H or the Mg depletion varies significantly over distance scales of only a few parsecs.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

Tropospheric- Stratospheric Measurement Studies Summary

The two high altitude aircraft, ER-2 NASA #706 and 709 and the DC-8 NASA #717 are in active use in several programs of upper atmospheric research to study polar ozone changes, stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes and atmospheric effects of aviation aircraft. The ER-2 has participated in seven major missions which mainly concentrated on vortex dynamics and the large losses of Ozone in the Polar regions (Ozone hole) observed in the spring. One mission verified the complex dynamical chemical and physical processes that occur during sunrise and sunset. Stratospheric Tracers of Atmospheric Transport (STRAT) obtained background measurements using the full ER-2 suite of instruments. Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) in 1997 assisted in understanding the mid-latitude and Arctic Ozone losses during the Northern Summer. The DC-8 with the Meteorological Measurement System (MMS) has participated in the Subsonic Aircraft: Cloud and Contrail Effects Special Study (SUCCESS), in 1996 and the Subsonic assessment Ozone and Nitrogen oxide experiment (SONEX) in 1997 missions. The MMS with its sophisticated software accurately measures ground speed and attitude, in-situ static and dynamic pressure total temperature, which are used to calculate the three dimensional wind fields, static pressure, temperature and turbulence values to meteorological accuracy. The meteorological data is not only of interest for its own sake in atmospheric dynamical processes such as mountain waves and flux measurements; but is also required by other ER-2 experiments that simultaneously measure water vapor, O3, aerosols, NO, HCl, CH4, N2O, ClO, BrO, CO2, NOy, HOx and temperature gradients. MMS products are extensively used to assist in the interpretation of their results in understanding the importance of convective effects relative to in-situ chemical changes, as may be noted by examining the list of references attached. The MMS consists of three subsystems: (a) aircraft instrumentation, inertial navigation system (INS), static and dynamic pressure taps, (b) additional dedicated instrumentation measuring angle of attack, yaw, total temperature, and a GPS which on the DC-8 measures position, velocity and attitude (c) an on board data, storage and computing acquisition system. This instrumentation and the associated software requires both an on-going laboratory ground calibration procedure for the total air temperature, static and total pressure inputs, verification of the INS dynamic response and also extensive air measurements and intercomparisons which ultimately verify and calibrate the complete system and its software. More than the usual accuracy is required because of the near cancellation occurring in the difference between the ground speed and true airspeed vectors used to give the wind vector. In the past year we have redesigned, recalibrated and used the MMS system on the NASA DC-8 that was previously used in the SUCCESS mission for the SONEX mission. Two papers were co-authored based on SUCCESS flights. Several reports and handouts were written for SONEX. Calibrations of the DC-8 pressure transducer temperature measuring thermistors was completed and an extensive analysis spanning several years of data files of the DC-8 Rosemount pressure transducer calibrations was done.

Browen, Stuart W.↗

Evidence for Supermassive Black Holes in Active Galactic Nuclei from Emission-Line Reverberation

Emission-line variability data for Seyfert 1 galaxies provide strong evidence for the existence of supermassive black holes in the nuclei of these galaxies and that the line-emitting gas is moving in the gravitational potential of that black hole. The time-delayed response of the emission lines to continuum variations is used to infer the size of the line-emitting region, which is then combined with measurements of the Doppler widths of the variable line components to estimate a virial mass. la the case of the best-studied galaxy, NGC 5548, various emission lines spanning an order of magnitude in distance from the central source show the expected V proportional to r(sup -l/2) correlation between distance and line width and are thus consistent with a single value for the mass. Two other Seyfert galaxies, NGC 7469 and 3C 390.3, show a similar relationship. We compute the ratio of luminosity to mass for these three objects and the narrow-line Seyfert I galaxy NGC 4051 and find that the gravitational force on the line-emitting gas is much stronger than radiation pressure. These results strongly support the paradigm of gravitationally bound broad emission line region clouds.

Peterson, Bradley M.↗

Automated Approach to Accurate, Precise, and Fast Detector Simulation and Reconstruction

Detector simulation and reconstruction are a significant computational bottleneck in particle physics. Here, we develop particle-flow neural-assisted simulations (parnassus) to address this challenge. Our deep learning model takes as input a point cloud (particles impinging on a detector) and produces a point cloud (reconstructed particles). By combining detector simulations and reconstruction into one step, we aim to minimize resource utilization and enable fast surrogate models suitable for application both inside and outside large collaborations. We demonstrate this approach using a publicly available dataset of jets passed through the full simulation and reconstruction pipeline of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment. We show that parnassus accurately mimics the CMS particle flow algorithm on the (statistically) same events it was trained on and can generalize to jet momentum and type outside of the training distribution.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modern deep neural networks for Direct Normal Irradiance forecasting: A classification approach

The escalating energy demand and the adverse environmental impacts of fossil-fuel use necessitate a shift towards cleaner and renewable alternatives. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology emerges as a promising solution, offering a carbon-free alternative for power generation. The efficiency and profitability of CSP depend on the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) component of solar radiation; hence, accurate DNI forecasting can help optimize CSP plants’ operations and performance. The unpredictable nature of weather phenomena, particularly cloud cover, introduces uncertainty into DNI projections. Existing DNI forecasting models use meteorological factors, which are both challenging to estimate numerically over short prediction windows and expensive to model through data at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. This research addresses the challenge by presenting a novel approach that formulates DNI prediction as a multi-class classification problem, departing from conventional regression-based methods. The primary objective of this classification framework is to identify optimal periods aligning with specific operational thresholds for CSP plants, contributing to enhanced dispatch optimization strategies. We model the DNI classification problem using four advanced deep neural networks – rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks, 1D residual networks (ResNets), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and transformers – achieving accuracies up to 93.5% without requiring meteorological parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of neural network convection parameterizations for climate and NWP models using Cloud Resolving Model simulations

A novel approach based on the neural network (NN) technique is formulated and used for development of a NN ensemble stochastic convection parameterization for climate models. This fast parameterization is built based on data from Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations initialized with and driven by the TOGA-COARE data available for the 4-month winter season from November 1992 to February 1993. CRM simulated data were averaged and projected onto the GCM space of atmospheric states to implicitly define a stochastic convection parameterization. This parameterization is emulated using an ensemble of neural networks (NNs). The developed NNs are trained and tested. The inherent uncertainty of the stochastic convection parameterization derived following this approach is estimated. The newly developed NN convection parameterization has been tested in a diagnostic mode of NCAR CAM. It produced reasonable and promising climate simulations for the TOGA-COARE winter. This paper is devoted to discussion of the concept, methodology, initial results,and the major challenges of development of NN convection parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction (NWR) models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geospatial Data Workflow Orchestration and Architecture

In an era characterized by explosive growth in geospatial data, the selection of appropriate technologies for data storage, processing, and orchestration is critical for organizations aiming to maintain competitive advantages. This white paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has effectively employed various cloud technologies, including containerized applications, container orchestrators, and workflow orchestrators, to develop robust geospatial data processing solutions. We explore the fundamental concepts behind these technologies and compare multiple deployment models tailored to diverse use cases. Our findings conclude that while Kubernetes has emerged as the preferred platform for truly scalable and fault-tolerant production workflows, the choice of workflow orchestration tool requires careful consideration of team needs, pipeline complexity, and deployment environments. This paper aims to serve as a strategic guide for organizations leveraging geospatial data, articulating the balance between technology choices and practical implementation to enhance workflow efficacy and scalability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Plug-Loads Game Changer: Computer Gaming Energy Efficiency without Performance Compromise

Two-thirds of Americans play computer games. Although among the most complex and energy intensive plug loads, gaming has been largely overlooked in energy research and development and policy. Systems used for computer gaming in California consumed 4.1 terawatt-hours/year in 2016 or $700 million in energy bills, with emissions of 1.5 million tons carbon dioxide equivalent allocated 66 percent to consoles, 31 percent to desktop personal computers, 3 percent to laptops, and less than 1 percent to emerging media streaming devices. Key findings include: • Aggregate energy demand places gaming among the top plug loads in California, with gaming representing one-fifth of the state’s total miscellaneous residential energy use. • Market structure changes could substantially affect statewide energy use; energy demand could rise by 114 percent by 2021 under intensified desktop gaming, or fall by 24 percent given a major shift towards consoles coupled with energy efficiency gains. • Unit energy consumption is remarkably varied across gaming platform types: across 26 systems tested, client-side electricity use ranged from 5 to more than 1,200 kWh per year, reflecting equipment choice and usage patterns. • Some emerging technologies and activities are driving energy demand higher, including processor overclocking, cloud-based gaming, higher-resolution connected displays, and virtual reality gaming. • User behavior influences gaming energy use more than technology choice; duty cycle and game choice are particularly strong drivers of demand. • Energy efficiency opportunities are substantial, about 50 percent on a per-system basis for personal computers and 40 percent for consoles if past rates of improvement continue. While simultaneously quantifying efficiency and gaming performance is problematic, evidence suggests that efficiency can be improved while maintaining or improving user experience. Familiar energy policy strategies can help manage gaming energy demand, although mandatory system-level standards are not promising (component-level measures may be).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High-performance web services for querying gene and variant annotation

Efficient tools for data management and integration are essential for many aspects of high-throughput biology. In particular, annotations of genes and human genetic variants are commonly used but highly fragmented across many resources. Here, we describe MyGene.info and MyVariant.info, high-performance web services for querying gene and variant annotation information. These web services are currently accessed more than three million times permonth. They also demonstrate a generalizable cloud-based model for organizing and querying biological annotation information. MyGene.info and MyVariant.info are provided as high-performance web services, accessible at http://mygene.info and http://myvariant.info. Both are offered free of charge to the research community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Visions of our Planet's Atmosphere, Land & Oceans

The NASA/NOAA Electronic Theater presents Earth science observations and visualizations in a historical perspective. Fly in from outer space to South Africa, Cape Town and Johannesburg using NASA Terra MODIS data, Landsat data and 1m IKONOS "Spy Satellite" data. Zoom in to any place South Africa using Earth Viewer 3D from Keyhole Inc. and Landsat data at 30 m resolution. Go back to the early weather satellite images from the 1960s and see them contrasted with the latest US and international global satellite weather movies including hurricanes & "tornadoes". See the latest visualizations of spectacular images from NASA/NOAA remote sensing missions like Terra, GOES, TRMM, SeaWiFS, Landsat 7 including 1 - min GOES rapid scan image sequences of Nov 9th 2001 Midwest tornadic thunderstorms and have them explained. See how High-Definition Television (HDTV) is revolutionizing the way we present science to the public. See dust storms and flooding in Africa and smoke plumes from fires in Mexico. See visualizations featured on the covers of Newsweek, TIME, National Geographic, Popular Science & on National & International Network TV. New computer software tools allow us to roam & zoom through massive global images e.g. Landsat tours of the US, and Africa, showing desert and mountain geology as well as seasonal changes in vegetation. See animations of the north and south polar ice packs and with icebergs on the coasts of Greenland and off the coast of Antarctica. Spectacular new visualizations of the global land, atmosphere & oceans are shown. Listen to the pulse of our planet. See how land vegetation, ocean plankton, clouds and temperatures respond to the sun & seasons. See vortexes and currents in the global oceans that bring up the nutrients to feed tiny algae and draw the fish, whales and fisherman. See the how the ocean blooms in response to these currents and El Nino/La Nina climate changes. See the city lights, fishing fleets, gas flares and biomass burning of the Earth at night observed by the "night-vision" DMSP military satellite. The presentation will be made using the latest HDTV and video projection technology that is now done from a laptop computer through an entirely digital path.

Hasler, Arthur F.↗

Harmonized Sentinel-1 SAR Global River Geometry and Inundation Database

Satellite-based observations on river geometries are sporadic in time, space, or both. Most satellite-based surface water maps, river widths, water surface elevations (WSE), slopes, and bathymetry are asynchronized in time and space. The current configuration of satellites such as Sentinel-6 measured the WSE but is missing the river width, slopes, and depths. To advance hydrological sciences research, there is a need to produce a harmonized time series of river geometry data of non-SWOT satellites in partnership with the upcoming SWOT mission. The SWOT satellite will measure river width, height, and slope but missing river depth measurements in space and time. Further, none of these current satellites measure the WSE, river width, and slopes synchronously. In this work, we use the Sentinel-1 SAR satellite data archive from 2015 to the present to create a global river width and surface water database at the reach scale. A modified version of the Sentinel SAR surface water classification algorithm from ASF is used to quantify the surface water extent on the stream approximately every six days (at the equator) at 10m spatial resolution globally. This 10m water mask is fed into a workflow to quantify the river widths, surface water inundations, slopes, and synthetic bathymetry in SWORD (SWOT River Database) stream networks. A Satellite HAND is used to address the cloud obscured surface water observations using a trained machine learning algorithm. We use WSE derived from the Global Water Monitor from NASA GSFC, Hydroweb from LEGOS, and ICESat-2 to harmonize the WSE observation. And Landsat-8/9 and Sentinel-2 water observations to fill the gaps in the Sentinel-1 SAR database. We use Congo River Basin as a test case where we have more than 500 radar altimetry-based WSE, continuous series of Sentinel-1, ICESat-2, Landsat-8/9, and Sentinel-2 observations. A Congo River hydrologic model is used to generate the streamflow discharge. The satellite observed river reaches are assimilated with the stream flows computed by the routing models. And the downstream reaches in the river network without satellite observations get optimized for discharge/river geometry at each observation cycle. Our final product is a harmonized river geometry dataset (reach's water extent, WSE, slope, synthetic bathymetry) for Congo Basin's SWORD reaches.

Chandana Gangodagamage↗

Collisional excitation of CH 2 rotational/fine-structure levels by helium

Accurate determination of the abundance of CH 2 in interstellar media relies on both radiative and collisional rate coefficients. Here, we investigate here the rotational/fine-structure excitation of CH 2 induced by collisions with He. We employ a recoupling technique to generate fine-structure-resolved cross-sections and rate coefficients from close coupling spin-free scattering calculations. The calculations are based on a recent, high-accuracy CH 2 –He potential energy surface computed at the coupled clusters level of theory. The collisional cross-section calculations are performed for all fine-structure transitions among the first 22 and 24 energy levels of ortho- and para-CH 2 , respectively, and for temperatures up to 300 K. As a first application, we simulate the excitation of CH 2 in typical molecular clouds. The excitation temperatures of the CH 2 lines are found to be small at typical densities of molecular clouds, showing that the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium approach has to be used to analyse interstellar spectra. We also found that the fine-structure lines connected with the 404 – 313 and 505 – 414 rotational transitions show possible maser emissions so that they can be easily seen in emission. In conclusion, these calculations show that CH 2 may have to be detected mainly through absorption spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SARS-CoV2 billion-compound docking

Abstract This dataset contains ligand conformations and docking scores for 1.4 billion molecules docked against 6 structural targets from SARS-CoV2, representing 5 unique proteins: MPro, NSP15, PLPro, RDRP, and the Spike protein. Docking was carried out using the AutoDock-GPU platform on the Summit supercomputer and Google Cloud. The docking procedure employed the Solis Wets search method to generate 20 independent ligand binding poses per compound. Each compound geometry was scored using the AutoDock free energy estimate, and rescored using RFScore v3 and DUD-E machine-learned rescoring models. Input protein structures are included, suitable for use by AutoDock-GPU and other docking programs. As the result of an exceptionally large docking campaign, this dataset represents a valuable resource for discovering trends across small molecule and protein binding sites, training AI models, and comparing to inhibitor compounds targeting SARS-CoV-2. The work also gives an example of how to organize and process data from ultra-large docking screens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗