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Wind and Temperature Spectrometry of the Upper Atmosphere in Low-Earth Orbit

Wind and Temperature Spectrometry (WATS) is a new approach to measure the full wind vector, temperature, and relative densities of major neutral species in the Earth's thermosphere. The method uses an energy-angle spectrometer moving through the tenuous upper atmosphere to measure directly the angular and energy distributions of the air stream that enters the spectrometer. The angular distribution gives the direction of the total velocity of the air entering the spectrometer, and the energy distribution gives the magnitude of the total velocity. The wind velocity vector is uniquely determined since the measured total velocity depends on the wind vector and the orbiting velocity vector. The orbiting spectrometer moves supersonically, Mach 8 or greater, through the air and must point within a few degrees of its orbital velocity vector (the ram direction). Pointing knowledge is critical; for example, pointing errors 0.1 lead to errors of about 10 m/s in the wind. The WATS method may also be applied without modification to measure the ion-drift vector, ion temperature, and relative ion densities of major ionic species in the ionosphere. In such an application it may be called IDTS: Ion-Drift Temperature Spectrometry. A spectrometer-based coordinate system with one axis instantaneously pointing along the ram direction makes it possible to transform the Maxwellian velocity distribution of the air molecules to a Maxwellian energy-angle distribution for the molecular flux entering the spectrometer. This implementation of WATS is called the gas kinetic method (GKM) because it is applied to the case of the Maxwellian distribution. The WATS method follows from the recognition that in a supersonic platform moving at 8,000 m/s, the measurement of small wind velocities in the air on the order of a few 100 m/s and less requires precise knowledge of the angle of incidence of the neutral atoms and molecules. The same is true for the case of ion-drift measurements. WATS also provides a general approach that can obtain non-equilibrium distributions as may exist in the upper regions of the thermosphere, above 500 km and into the exosphere. Finally, WATS serves as a mass spectrometer, with very low mass resolution of roughly 1 part in 3, but easily separating atomic oxygen from molecular nitrogen.

Herrero, Federico↗

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 18 Appendix Q - Historical Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed.

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconom ic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 19 Appendix R - Forecast Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pressure distribution on the nose of an airship in circling flight

In recent tests on the pressures occurring on the envelope and control surfaces of the naval airship C-7, it was noted that the pressures on the nose of the airship, while flying in level circling flight, were symmetrically distributed. Such a condition can only occur when the nose of the airship is pointed directly into the wind, and to accomplish this in circling flight, the axis of the airship must then be parallel to the direction of the motion of the nose. The question was raised as to whether the same conditions occur generally on all airships in circling flight. It appears that airships flying in a constant, level, circling flight path will generally head very closely into the wind, and any deviation will be so slight that the distribution of pressure over the nose will be but slightly, if at all, changed from a symmetrical distribution.

Fairbanks, Karl J↗

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Venus lower thermosphere studies

Studies undertaken in this project have sought to understand lower thermospheric structure and dynamics (less than or equal to 145 km), particularly the processes responsible. This is a region just below the reach of in-situ instruments onboard PVO (Pioneer Venus Orbiter) during the first few diurnal cycles. PVO remote airglow observations (nitric oxide, O2, visible, O 1304A) have been coupled with ground-based observations (CO densities, winds, temperatures, O2 IR nightglow) to address the behavior of lower thermospheric winds and chemistry over 95 to 150 km. This interpretation of PVO and related data is accomplished by using the NCAR Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) (Bougher et al., 1988; 1990). This model has been modified over the last two years to improve its ability to calculate O, CO, and O2 densities, temperatures, nightglow, and subsolar-to-antisolar and zonal winds over 95 to 150 km (Bougher and Borucki, 1992). Our VTGCM studies show that: (1) O2 visible and IR nightglow distributions can be used to trace lower thermosphere / upper mesosphere winds over 100-130 km. Typically, weak zonal winds (less than or equal to 25 m/sec) and nightglow maximum patches near 0100 LT prevail. Occasionally, strong zonal winds (30-60 m/sec) and airglow patches peaking near 0300 LT characterize the Venus lower thermosphere. (2) It is clear that the dynamics of the Venus 90-130 km region is highly variable on time scales as short as an hour. This is most likely due to the time variable nature of upward propagating gravity waves, which grow in amplitude and eventually break. The resulting turbulence gives rise to local time variable eddy diffusion and momentum drag, both of which strongly impact global density and nightglow distributions. (3) The oxygen chemistry (O, O2, etc.) over 90-120 km is strongly dependent on HO(x) and CLO(x) tracer species that must be properly included in any coupled chemical dynamical model. (4) The density profiles of light species (O, CO, N, He) are strongly affected by large-scale transport by the winds. Strong eddy diffusion is not a suitable model parameterization for approximating these light species, especially for extrapolation into the region below 140 km where PVO in-situ data is lacking. Instead, the fully coupled chemical dynamical VTGCM model should be used to improve estimates of densities within the VTS3 empirical model (Hedin et al., 1983) below 140 km.

Bougher, Stephen W.↗

Distributed-Roughness Effects on Stability and Transition In Swept-Wing Boundary Layers

Boundary-layer stability experiments are conducted in the Arizona State University Unsteady Wind Tunnel on a 45 deg swept airfoil. The pressure distribution and test conditions are designed to suppress Tollmien-Schlichting disturbances and provide crossflow-dominated transition. The surface of the airfoil is finely polished to a near mirror finish. Under these conditions, submicron surface irregularities cause the naturally occurring stationary crossflow waves to grow to nonuniform amplitudes. Spanwise-uniform stationary crossflow disturbances are generated through careful control of the initial conditions with full-span arrays of micron-high roughness elements near the attachment line. Detailed hot-wire measurements are taken to document the stationary crossflow structure and determine growth rates for the total and individual-mode disturbances. Naphthalene flow visualization provides transition location information. Roughness spacing and roughness height are varied to examine the effects on transition location and all amplified wavelengths. The measurements show that roughness spacings that do not contain harmonics equal to the most unstable wavelength as computed by linear stability theory effectively suppress the most unstable mode. Under certain conditions, subcritical roughness spacing delays transition past that of the corresponding smooth surface.

Carrillo, Ruben B., Jr.↗

Capacity value assessments of wind power

This article describes some of the recent research into the capacity value of wind power. With the worldwide increase in wind power during the past several years, there is increasing interest and significance regarding its capacity value because this has a direct influence on the amount of other (nonwind) capacity that is needed. We build on previous reviews from IEEE and IEA W ind T ask 25 a and examine recent work that evaluates the impact of multiple‐year data sets and the impact of interconnected systems on resource adequacy. We also provide examples that explore the use of alternative reliability metrics for wind capacity value calculations. We show how multiple‐year data sets significantly increase the robustness of results compared to single‐year assessments. Assumptions regarding the transmission interconnections play a significant role. To date, results regarding which reliability metric to use for probabilistic capacity valuation show little sensitivity to the metric. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e226. doi: 10.1002/wene.226 This article is categorized under: Wind Power > Economics and Policy Wind Power > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Infrastructure > Economics and Policy

Milligan, Michael↗

Three-Stage Production Cost Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Benefits of Intra-Hour Scheduling Between Balancing Authorities

This paper introduces a production cost modeling approach for evaluating the benefits of intra-hour scheduling among Balancing Authorities (BAs). System operation is modeled in a three-stage sequential manner: day ahead (DA)-hour ahead (HA) real time (RT). In addition to contingency reserve, each BA will need to carry out 'up' and 'down' load following and regulation reserve capacity requirements in the DA and HA time frames. In the RT simulation, only contingency and regulation reserves are carried out as load following is deployed. To model current RT operation with hourly schedules, a new constraint was introduced to force each BA net exchange schedule deviation from HA schedules to be within North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) area control error (ACE) limits. Case studies that investigate the benefits of moving from hourly exchange schedules between Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) BAs into 10-minute exchange schedules under two different levels of wind and solar penetration (11% and 33%) are presented.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implementations and Evaluations of Wind Turbine Inertial Controls With FAST and Digital Real-Time Simulations

This paper presents a novel simulation approach to evaluate new ancillary service controls in the context of large-scale wind power integration. We adopt and compare different types of turbine inertial control methods with the proposed modifications to cope with realistic wind conditions in the field. The simulation procedure is started with the software-based simulation, in which we employ the high-fidelity wind turbine simulator FAST that models a real three-bladed controls advanced research turbine (CART3). The advantages of using FAST are that it can provide convincing simulation results and address the interactions between turbine electrical and mechanical systems. The developed controller model is then rapidly prototyped for the real-time simulation with the hardware-in-the-loop scheme. CART3 will respond to a virtual frequency event triggered in the emulated electric grid modeled in a digital real-time simulator. The introduced simulation platform streamlines the procedure of designing turbine auxiliary controls, and these simulations results give insights on the turbine controls and their impacts on the interconnected power system, as well as the effects on turbine mechanical components. For example, the results indicate that the inertial controls tend to reduce the out-of-plane mechanical loadings in region 2, while such loadings are dominated by the pitch actions in region 3.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Managing Wind Power Uncertainty Through Strategic Reserve Purchasing

With the rapidly increasing penetration of wind power, wind producers are becoming increasingly responsible for the deviation of the wind power output from the forecast. Such uncertainty results in revenue losses to the wind power producers (WPPs) due to penalties in ex-post imbalance settlements. This paper explores the opportunities available for WPPs if they can purchase or schedule some reserves to offset part of their deviation rather than being fully penalized in the real time market. The revenue for WPPs under such mechanism is modeled. The optimal strategy for managing the uncertainty of wind power by purchasing reserves to maximize the WPP's revenue is analytically derived with rigorous optimality conditions. The amount of energy and reserves that should be bid in the market are explicitly quantified by the probabilistic forecast and the prices of the energy and reserves. A case study using the price data from ERCOT and wind power data from NREL is performed to verify the effectiveness of the derived optimal bidding strategy and the benefits of reserve purchasing. Additionally, the proposed bidding strategy can also reduce the risk of variations on WPP's revenue.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Diverse Super-Resolution (diversity_SR) [SWR-21-60]

Deep learning tools for enhancing the spatial resolution of wind data. The software is developed in Python using the TensorFlow deep learning package. Models for diversity super-resolution is provided. Included in the package are pretrained models with example code/data to perform the super-resolution as well as tools of training models for different enhancement- or data-types. The super-resolution is an inherently ill-conditioned problem, with multiple high-resolution fields plausibly mapping to the same coarse field. Considitional GANs provide a framework for generating a distribution of high-resolution realizations from a given low-resolution input. Stochastic estimation is used to inform the network of the expected degree and location of sub-grid diversity. The package includes a pretrained network to generate distributions of 10x-enhanced fields of wind data.

Glaws, Andrew↗

An Introduction to Grid Services: Concepts, Technical Requirements, and Provision from Wind

As the role of wind energy grows in the U.S. power grid, there is increased interest and requirements for it to provide 'essential reliability' services (historically often referred to as 'ancillary' services). These services are critical to maintaining the reliability and stability of the grid, and historically were provided by large 'synchronous' generators, mainly fossil-fueled and hydroelectric generators. To help evaluate the potential role of wind in providing these services, this report provides an overview of services provided to the grid, including their technical requirements, quantities currently procured, and some estimates of costs. The report also summarizes the technical and regulatory issues around wind providing these services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Introduction to Grid Services: Concepts, Technical Requirements, and Provision from Wind

As the role of wind energy grows in the U.S. power grid, there is increased interest and requirements for it to provide 'essential reliability' services (historically often referred to as 'ancillary' services). These services are critical to maintaining the reliability and stability of the grid, and historically were provided by large 'synchronous' generators, mainly fossil-fueled and hydroelectric generators. To help evaluate the potential role of wind in providing these services, this report provides an overview of services provided to the grid, including their technical requirements, quantities currently procured, and some estimates of costs. The report also summarizes the technical and regulatory issues around wind providing these services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗